Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners



​Quotes of the Day:


Being constantly offended does not mean you are right. It simply means you are too narcissistic and simple minded to tolerate opinions different from your own narrow view.
- Unknown

“Truth is not as straightforward as it seems. There are different ways to speak the truth, not all of them honest. On most issues, there are multiple truths we can choose to communicate. Our choice of truth will influence how those around us perceive an issue and react to it. We can select truths that engage people and inspire action, or we can deploy truths that deliberately mislead. Truth comes in many forms, and experienced communicators can exploit its very ability to shape our impression of reality.” 
- H. McDonald

“The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; Whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.”
 - Gustave Le Bon





1. North Korea’s Threat

2.  N.K. leader inspects training of tactical nuclear weapon units: KCNA

3. NKorea confirms simulated use of nukes to 'wipe out' enemies

4. Yoon's office says security situation is 'grave'

5. Samsung's Ukraine office damaged by Russia's missile attack on Kyiv

​6. S. Korea rejects N.K.'s use of S. Korea-U.S. drills as pretext for 'unlawful' provocations

7. New COVID-19 cases under 10,000 on waning infections, fewer tests

8. Kim Jong-un says he doesn't have to discuss his nukes with anyone

9. Tripartite security cooperation is a must​ (ROK, Japan, US)​

10. Do not dismiss saber-rattling​ (Korea)​

​11. ​North Korea Says It Is Building Underwater Nuclear Weapons Silos

12. Chinese account for 62 pct of apartment purchases by foreigners since 2015: gov't

13. What options does S. Korea have as US protectionism intensifies?

14. Doubts grow over effectiveness of UN sanctions on North Korea

15.  Don't play with nukes (north Korea)

​16. ​Crypto Hackers Are Secretly Funding North Korea's Nuclear Weapons





1. North Korea’s Threat


Graphics at the link.


I think this is wishful thinking. It is plausible that he will want to build up his "arsenal" so as to be able to negotiate some of it away. He certainly wants to legitimize the north as a nuclear power through arms control negotiation, but I think it is a fantasy to believe that the regime would give up his ICBM capability and focus on;y on short range weapons systems as a deterrent. And we must never be duped into believing that Kim will ever give up nuclear weapons in return for economic concessions. I am always amused about statements that the regime wants to force the US to the negotiating table. The US does not need to be forced. A better way to describe it may be to say that the regime wants to set the conditions for negotiation as favorable to the north.


Excerpts:


Kim sat down with President Donald Trump in 2018 and 2019 and tried to use North Korea’s nuclear capabilities as leverage to get the U.S. to lift or ease the sanctions. It didn’t work. So Kim has tried to force the Americans back to the negotiating table. To do that, he has to test weapons, ratcheting up the threat to the U.S. and its allies.
That’s a major reason for North Korea to build up its capabilities now; it has to have a deep arsenal to be able to negotiate some of it away. North Korea wants recognition as a nuclear power, but some analysts think it will eventually offer to arm itself only with short-range nuclear weapons, which can still serve as a deterrent, but give up its longer-range missile capabilities in exchange for economic concessions from Washington.



North Korea’s Threat

Frustrated and isolated, the North is conducting more missile tests than ever.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/09/briefing/north-korea-nuclear-tests.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

  • Give this article


A North Korean missile test in 2017.Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Associated Press



By Ian Prasad Philbrick

Oct. 9, 2022

You're reading the The Morning newsletter.  Make sense of the day’s news and ideas. David Leonhardt and Times journalists guide you through what’s happening — and why it matters. Get it sent to your inbox.

North Korea has for decades been testing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in defiance of international demands to stop. North Korea’s authoritarian leader, Kim Jong-un, has picked up the pace this year, testing a record number of missiles so far. The North fired 12 in the past two weeks alone, including two early today. Last week, one flew over Japan, the first such launch since 2017, setting off alarms and panicking residents.

I called Choe Sang-Hun, The Times’s bureau chief in Seoul, who also covers the North, to learn more.

Image


Credit...Count for 2022 is as of Oct. 8. | Sources: Center for Strategic and International Studies; The New York Times


Ian: Why is Kim escalating his country’s weapons program now?

Sang-Hun: North Korea is protesting recent military exercises by South Korea, Japan and the U.S. But more frequent weapons tests are also part of Kim’s long-term goal. He wants to expand his country’s nuclear and missile capabilities for self-defense. He may also want to use them as a bargaining chip to get diplomatic and economic concessions from the U.S. and its allies. Under American-led U.N. resolutions, North Korea has been banned since 2017 from exporting its major commodities — including coal, iron ore, seafood and textiles — which hurts its economy.


North Korea is frustrated, isolated and uncertain about its future. Kim sat down with President Donald Trump in 2018 and 2019 and tried to use North Korea’s nuclear capabilities as leverage to get the U.S. to lift or ease the sanctions. It didn’t work. So Kim has tried to force the Americans back to the negotiating table. To do that, he has to test weapons, ratcheting up the threat to the U.S. and its allies.

That’s a major reason for North Korea to build up its capabilities now; it has to have a deep arsenal to be able to negotiate some of it away. North Korea wants recognition as a nuclear power, but some analysts think it will eventually offer to arm itself only with short-range nuclear weapons, which can still serve as a deterrent, but give up its longer-range missile capabilities in exchange for economic concessions from Washington.

How do people in South Korea live with the nuclear threat from North Korea?

For South Korea, missile tests have become routine. The government condemns them as provocations, and North Korea policy is a perpetual political issue, but ordinary people don’t really pay attention to them. They’re more concerned about inflation and domestic political scandals. South Koreans like to say that when North Korea does something provocative, their relatives in the U.S. — who read American media — are more concerned than they are.

Tensions are not as high as in 2017, when Kim and Trump were exchanging insults and threats of nuclear holocaust. There was tangible fear then, even in South Korea.

How do North Koreans regard the tests?

While we don’t have independent journalists doing interviews in North Korea, we do know that state propaganda and totalitarian control work there. My only visit to Pyongyang was in 2005, shortly after I joined The Times. I remember seeing what are called the Arirang Mass Games. It’s a totalitarian spectacle. North Korea has one of the largest stadiums in the world, and it was crammed with thousands of young children who had trained for months to perform while holding colored signs, moving like robots in such perfect synchronization that they actually created moving pictures that flashed communist slogans. They were like human pixels.

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I witnessed how ordinary people’s lives are affected by propaganda. It’s clear that many North Koreans consider the country’s nuclear weapons a matter of national pride, a symbol of dignity, independence and empowerment. The government tells its people that the U.S. wants to invade North Korea and that nuclear weapons will protect them from the evil, imperialist Americans and their lackeys in South Korea and Japan.

North Korea likes to compare itself to a porcupine bristling with needles, deterring the American tiger. That’s how it justifies spending resources on developing and testing weapons. You can go hungry, but you can’t give up your pride is a common theme in North Korean propaganda.

You’ve reported on North Korea for decades. How do you cover such a closed society?

I talk to analysts in South Korea and to North Korean defectors. But because it’s difficult to travel internally, defectors from one part of the country often don’t know what’s happening elsewhere.

For me, the best way to understand North Korea’s government is to follow its state media. You learn to screen out the propaganda and see what the government is really saying, and develop an understanding of the ideological, historical and diplomatic context of its actions. When the outside world began noticing North Korea’s nuclear weapons program decades ago, there were many theories about its motivations. If you look back on official statements, state media articles and speeches by leaders, it’s clear that it’s been the government’s aim to build nuclear weapons all along.

More about Sang-Hun: He grew up in a village in southeastern South Korea and went to graduate school in Seoul. He didn’t plan to become a journalist but followed a friend into the field and landed a job at the English-language Korea Herald. He joined The Times after 11 years with The Associated Press.

Related: The U.S. penalized businessmen and companies it said had helped North Korea evade sanctions. It’s bracing for Kim to conduct another nuclear test.



2.  N.K. leader inspects training of tactical nuclear weapon units: KCNA


The Kim family regime's political warfare, blackmail diplomacy , and advanced war fighting strategies are on full display.


We need to recognize, understand, expose, and attack the strategies with a superior political warfare strategy. 

(4th LD) N.K. leader inspects training of tactical nuclear weapon units: KCNA | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 10, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in paras 13-14; ADDS photo)

By Kim Soo-yeon

SEOUL, Oct. 10 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has inspected an exercise of tactical nuclear operation units held in order to check and assess the "war deterrent and nuclear counterattack capability" in response to recent joint military trainings by South Korea and the United States, Pyongyang's state media said Monday.

The drills were conducted from Sept. 25 to Oct. 9 while the South and the U.S. were staging a large-scale combined naval exercise in the waters near the peninsula involving the nuclear-powered Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The North's military staged "ballistic missile launching drills under the simulation of loading tactical nuclear warheads," it reported.


The North's military also held a series of live-fire "striking" exercises, including "super-large" caliber missile firing drills targeting major ports of its enemies on Sunday, with long-range artillery and aviation units mobilized.

"This is the verification of the operation posture of our war deterrent and, at the same time, an occasion that proved the reliability of the thorough preparedness of the state nuclear defense posture," Kim was quoted as saying by the KCNA in its English-language report.

Kim also made clear that he is not interested in talks with the U.S. and South Korea, vowing to strengthen his regime's nuclear force.

"We have no content for dialogue with the enemies and felt no necessity to do so," Kim said, as Pyongyang's state-controlled media carried reports on his public activity for the first time in about a month.

The KCNA revealed that the North staged large-scale air-attack drills on Saturday, during which more than 150 warplanes took off simultaneously "for the first time in history." The drills coincided with the South Korea-U.S. naval exercise involving the American aircraft carrier.

In response, the South Korean Air Force scrambled F-35A fighters in the first known deployment of the radar-evading jets as a counteraction to a show of force by Pyongyang, according to Seoul officials.

The KCNA, in addition, disclosed the Sept. 25 ballistic missile drills simulating the loading of tactical nuclear warheads "at a silo under a reservoir" in a northwestern region.

The drills were aimed at "confirming the order of taking tactical nuclear warheads out and transporting them and of managing them in a rapid and safe way at the time of operation," according to the KCNA.

"Through the drill, the orientation of building a planned silo beneath the reservoir was confirmed," the agency said.

A KCNA photo showed leader Kim and his wife, Ri Sol-ju, covering their ears with their hands apparently during live-fire drills involving the KN-25 super-large multiple rocket launcher.

Ri's appearance at the military event was rare given that she usually accompanies Kim on nonmilitary occasions, like musical performances.


The announcement came on the 77th founding anniversary of the North's ruling Workers' Party.

Seoul and Washington have sought to beef up their combined combat readiness by staging joint naval exercises recently in a show of force against Pyongyang's provocations.

North Korea has long denounced such a move as a rehearsal for an invasion of the North, calling on Washington to end its "hostile" policy. The allies stress that the exercises are defensive in nature.

Concerns are growing as well that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test in the near future, with the South's state intelligence agency saying that it may be slated for between Oct. 16 and Nov. 7.

At a key party congress in January last year, Kim called for redoubled efforts for the development of tactical nuclear weapons that can be loaded with "smaller and lighter" warheads.

Last month, the North's rubber-stamp parliament approved a new law that opens the door for its preemptive nuclear strikes. Kim stated that the new law makes the country's nuclear power status "irreversible."

The North conducted a string of key weapon tests, including the launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) over Japan on Oct. 4. The U.S. soon redeployed the aircraft carrier to the East Sea and had another round of joint naval trainings with South Korea and Japan.

The KCNA also accused South Korea's military chief of revealing his "will for confrontation" in "unreasonable and provocative remarks."

"Under such inevitable circumstances," the KCNA said, the Central Military Commission of the ruling party discussed security situations on the peninsula and decided to organize the military drills "under the simulation of an actual war at different levels in order to check and improve the reliability and combat power of our state war deterrence and send a strong military reaction warning to the enemies."


sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 10, 2022




3. NKorea confirms simulated use of nukes to 'wipe out' enemies



I cannot emphasize this enough. I think it is a mistake to think the regime is "concerned" with ROK/US alliance exercises. I think this idea leads to the wrong conclusiones for us: e/.g., if we stop exercises Kim will be satisfied and come to the negotiating table. However, I think Kim attacks the exercises because he wants to weaken alliance military capabilities,drive a wedge inthe alliance, and try to drive US forces from the peninsula. 


Excerpts:


“North Korea has multiple motivations for publishing a high-profile missile story now,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. “Kim Jong Un’s public appearance after a month-long absence provides a patriotic headline to mark the founding anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party.”
“Pyongyang has been concerned about military exercises by the U.S., South Korea and Japan, so to strengthen its self-proclaimed deterrent, it is making explicit the nuclear threat behind its recent missile launches. The KCNA report may also be a harbinger of a forthcoming nuclear test for the kind of tactical warhead that would arm the units Kim visited in the field,” Easley said.


NKorea confirms simulated use of nukes to 'wipe out' enemies

AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · October 10, 2022

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea’s recent barrage of missile launches were the simulated use of its tactical battlefield nuclear weapons to “hit and wipe out” potential South Korean and U.S. targets, state media reported Monday, as its leader Kim Jong Un signaled he would conduct more provocative tests.

The North’s statement, released on the 77th birthday of its ruling Workers’ Party, is seen as an attempt to burnish Kim’s image as a strong leader at home amid pandemic-related hardships as he’s defiantly pushing to enlarge his weapons arsenal to wrest greater concessions from its rivals in future negotiations.

“Through seven times of launching drills of the tactical nuclear operation units, the actual war capabilities … of the nuclear combat forces ready to hit and wipe out the set objects at any location and any time were displayed to the full,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said.

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KCNA said the missile tests were in response to recent naval drills between U.S. and South Korean forces, which involved the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan for the first time in five years.

Viewing the drills as a military threat, North Korea decided to stage “the simulation of an actual war” to check and improve its war deterrence and send a warning to its enemies, KCNA said.

Seoul

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North Korea considers U.S.-South Korean military drills as an invasion rehearsal, though the allies have steadfastly said they are defensive in nature. Since the May inauguration of a conservative government in Seoul, the U.S. and South Korean militaries have been expanding their exercises, posing a greater security threat to Kim.

The launches — all supervised by Kim — included a nuclear-capable ballistic missile launched under a reservoir in the northeast; other ballistic missiles designed to launch nuclear strikes on South Korean airfields, ports and command facilities; and a new-type ground-to-ground ballistic missile that flew over Japan, KCNA reported. It said North Korea also flew 150 warplanes for separate live-firing and other drills in the country’s first-ever such training.

Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea said the missile launches marked the first time for North Korea to perform drills involving army units tasked with the operation of tactical nuclear weapons.

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The North’s public launch of a missile from under an inland reservoir was also the first of its kind, though it has previously test-launched missiles from a submarine.

Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Seoul’s University of North Korean Studies, said North Korea likely aims to diversify launch sites to make it difficult for its enemies to detect its missile liftoffs in advance and conduct preemptive strikes.

KCNA said when the weapon launched from the reservoir was flying above the sea target, North Korean authorities confirmed the reliability of the explosion of the missile’s warhead, apparently a dummy one, at the set altitude.

Kim, the professor, said the missile’s estimated 600-kilometer (370-mile) flight indicated the launch could be a test of exploding a nuclear weapon above South Korea’s southeastern port city of Busan, where the Reagan previously docked. He said the missile tested appeared to be a new version of North Korea’s highly maneuverable KN-23 missile, which was modeled on Russia’s Iskander missile.

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North Korea described the missile that flew over Japan as a new-type intermediate-range weapon that traveled 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles). Some foreign experts earlier said the missile was likely North Korea’s existing nuclear-capable Hwasong-12 missile, which can reach the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam. But Kim, the professor, said the missile tested recently appeared to be an improved version of the Hwasong-12 with a faraway target like Alaska or Hawaii.

North Korea released a slew of photos on the launches. One of them showed Kim and his wife Ri Sol Ju, both wearing ochre field jackets, frowning while covering their ears. Some observers say the image indicated Ri’s elevated political standing because it was likely the first time for her to observe a weapons launch with her husband.

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Worries about North Korea’s nuclear program deepened in recent months as the country adopted a new law authorizing the preemptive use of its bombs in certain cases and took reported steps to deploy tactical nuclear weapons along its frontline border with South Korea. This year, North Korea carried out more than 40 missile launches.

Some experts say Kim Jong Un would eventually aim to use his advanced nuclear arsenal to win a U.S. recognition of North Korea as a legitimate nuclear state, which Kim sees as essential in getting crippling U.N. sanctions on his country lifted.

Kim Jong Un said the recent launches were “an obvious warning” to Seoul and Washington, informing them of North Korea’s nuclear attack capabilities. Kim repeated that he has no intentions of resuming the stalled disarmament diplomacy with the United States now, according to KCNA.

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“The U.S. and the South Korean regime’s steady, intentional and irresponsible acts of escalating the tension will only invite our greater reaction, and we are always and strictly watching the situation crisis,” Kim was quoted as saying.

Kim also expressed conviction that the nuclear combat forces of his military would maintain “their strongest nuclear response posture and further strengthen it in every way” to perform their duties of defending the North’s dignity and sovereign rights.

South Korean officials recently said North Korea maintains readiness to perform its first nuclear test in five years. Some experts say the nuclear test would be related to an effort to build warheads to be mounted on short-range missiles targeting South Korea.

“North Korea has multiple motivations for publishing a high-profile missile story now,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. “Kim Jong Un’s public appearance after a month-long absence provides a patriotic headline to mark the founding anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party.”

“Pyongyang has been concerned about military exercises by the U.S., South Korea and Japan, so to strengthen its self-proclaimed deterrent, it is making explicit the nuclear threat behind its recent missile launches. The KCNA report may also be a harbinger of a forthcoming nuclear test for the kind of tactical warhead that would arm the units Kim visited in the field,” Easley said.

AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · October 10, 2022


4. Yoon's office says security situation is 'grave'


What are the indicators and warnings of an imminent attack?


We are fearing provocations while we are successfully deterring war. We must not show fear because to do so only emboldens Kim as he assesses his strategy as successful.


(LEAD) Yoon's office says security situation is 'grave' | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · October 10, 2022

(ATTN: ADDS Kim's remark)

SEOUL, Oct. 10 (Yonhap) -- The office of President Yoon Suk-yeol said Monday the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are facing a "grave" security situation, hours after North Korea said it practiced transporting nuclear warheads and firing a nuclear-capable ballistic missile from under a reservoir.

"It is important to accurately recognize the grave security reality on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia and prepare appropriately for it," a presidential official said in a notice to reporters. "Protecting the lives and safety of people is not about words, but it is a real-life problem."

The remark came hours after the North said via its official Korean Central News Agency that military units handling "tactical nukes" staged an exercise of launching a ballistic missile "under the simulation of loading tactical nuclear warheads at a silo under a reservoir."

"The drill was aimed at confirming the order of taking tactical nuclear warheads out and transporting them and of managing them in a rapid and safe way at the time of operation, checking the reliability of the overall management system, making the units acquire launching capabilities of the ballistic missile at the underwater silos and inspecting their rapid response posture," the KCNA said.

Leader Kim Jong-un oversaw the drill, the KCNA said.

Kim said the North has "no content for dialogue with the enemies and felt no necessity to do so," and that the country's "nuclear combat forces would maintain their strongest nuclear response posture and further strengthen it in every way," according to the KCNA.

In recent weeks, the North has been sharply ratcheting up tensions with a series of missile firings, including an intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan in one of the most provocative launches in years.



(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · October 10, 2022


5.  Samsung's Ukraine office damaged by Russia's missile attack on Kyiv


Samsung's Ukraine office damaged by Russia's missile attack on Kyiv | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · October 10, 2022

SEOUL, Oct. 10 (Yonhap) -- A building housing Samsung Electronics Co.'s Ukraine operation was damaged following Russia's missile attack on Kyiv on Monday, officials said.

Earlier in the day, Russia shelled several cities in Ukraine, including Kyiv, leaving at least five dead in the capital city alone, according to news reports.

An official from Samsung Electronics confirmed that some of the building's windows were shattered following the attack, although a missile did not directly hit the location but landed some 150 meters away.

"We have confirmed that no casualties were reported from our local (Ukraine) branch," the official said.

An official from South Korea's foreign ministry added no casualties of Korean nationals were reported from Monday's attack.

colin@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · October 10, 2022




6. S. Korea rejects N.K.'s use of S. Korea-U.S. drills as pretext for 'unlawful' provocations



​Good. South Korea is correct. And there are too many pundits who believe north Korea's propaganda blaming the provocations on ROK/US alliance defensive readiness exercises.


S. Korea rejects N.K.'s use of S. Korea-U.S. drills as pretext for 'unlawful' provocations | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 10, 2022

SEOUL, Oct. 10 (Yonhap) -- The South Korean government cannot accept North Korea using recent military drills between Seoul and Washington as a pretext for its "unlawful" provocations, a Seoul official said Monday.

The remarks by the foreign ministry official came after the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) disclosed a recent series of its military drills, including those involving the operation of a nuclear-capable missile at a "silo under a reservoir."

"(South Korea) cannot accept North Korea using the South Korea-U.S. exercises as a pretext to justify unlawful provocations," the official said on condition of anonymity. "We urge the North to immediately stop missile provocations that escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in the region."

The official also expressed "serious" concerns over the North continuing to pose threats to peace on the peninsula and beyond through such moves as its recent codification of a nuclear policy that leaves open the possibility of nuclear preemptive strikes in a contingency.

"Our government will unwaveringly take a holistic approach under which we deter North Korean threats, dissuade the North from its nuclear development and pursue denuclearization through dialogue and diplomacy," the official said.

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 10, 2022


7. New COVID-19 cases under 10,000 on waning infections, fewer tests


Seems like good news. But is it because of waning infections or because of reduced testing?


New COVID-19 cases under 10,000 on waning infections, fewer tests | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · October 10, 2022

SEOUL, Oct. 10 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's new COVID-19 cases fell below 10,000 for the first time in 14 weeks Monday amid waning virus infections and fewer tests over the extended weekend.

The country reported 8,981 new COVID-19 infections, including 47 from overseas, bringing the total caseload to 24,979,770, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said.

Sunday's count marks the first time daily coronavirus cases fell under 10,000 since the 6,242 tally on July 4.

South Korea has seen a gradual downtrend in new infections after peaking at over 180,000 cases per day in mid-August.

The country added 23 deaths from COVID-19, raising the death toll to 28,698.

The number of critically ill patients stood at 311, compared with 305 from the previous day.

In line with the waning virus wave, the government has eased antivirus restrictions, including lifting all outdoor mask mandates and the COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing requirement for inbound travelers.

But the authorities have warned of a possible outbreak of a "twindemic" of COVID-19 and the seasonal influenza this winter and moved to better protect vulnerable groups.


odissy@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · October 10, 2022


8. Kim Jong-un says he doesn't have to discuss his nukes with anyone


What we have long known: CVID is dead. But it is politically untenable to admit that.




Monday

October 10, 2022

 dictionary + A - A 

Kim Jong-un says he doesn't have to discuss his nukes with anyone

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/10/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-missile/20221010171256403.html


North Korean leader Kim Jong-un views a recent missile test at an undisclosed location and date in this photograph released by Pyongyang's state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). [YONHAP]

 

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said his regime's recent spate of missile tests confirmed its ability to carry out tactical nuclear strikes and dismissed the necessity of dialogue with Seoul or Washington, according to Pyongyang's state media on Monday.  

 

The report, issued by the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on the anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party, quoted Kim as saying, “There is no need to engage in talks with our enemies, nor is there anything to discuss,” while vowing to strengthen his regime’s nuclear capabilities “by all means necessary.” 

 

According to the KCNA, Kim Jong-un watched exercises by “tactical nuclear operation units” to assess what he described as the regime’s “war deterrent and nuclear counterattack capabilities,” as well as to “send a serious warning to the enemy.”

 

The North Korean military practiced “loading tactical nuclear warheads” during the ballistic missile launches in addition to conducting "a super-large multiple rocket launching drill simulating an attack on major ports of the enemy,” according to the KCNA.

 

South Korean military authorities belatedly disclosed Monday that the North Korean military flew 150 fighter jets in an unusually large air force exercise on Saturday, leading the South to scramble F-35A stealth fighters in response.

 

The North Korean air force exercise was confirmed by the KCNA, which said the regime conducted the missile launches and the “unprecedented” air force drill in response to the presence of the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in the East Sea.

 

The USS Ronald Reagan returned to the East Sea to respond to North Korea's launch of an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) over Japan on Oct. 4, soon after it finished four-day joint naval exercises with the South Korean Navy in the East Sea on Sept. 29. 

 

The KCNA also released photos from the regime’s seven missile tests from Sept. 25 to Oct. 9 with Kim apparently in attendance at several.

 

The photos released by the KCNA depicted what experts have tentatively identified as a KN-25 tactical ballistic missile, a KN-23 short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), an underwater launch version of the KN-23, an unnamed heavy-payload SRBM of the kind last seen in March 2021, and a KN-09 multiple-launch rocket system.

 

Writing on Twitter, nuclear policy and missile expert Ankit Panda noted that the North described all seven of its recent missile launch events as being tied to “tactical nuclear operation units,” implying that the North is aiming to mount its nuclear weapons on a wide range of missiles for “first-use-in-theater” in the event of armed hostilities on the Korean Peninsula.

 

Language employed by the KCNA report described the IRBM launched over Japan as the North’s “latest surface-to-surface intermediate-range ballistic missile,” suggesting it might not be the same Hwasong-12 IRBM launched over Japan in September 2017.

 

Panda observed from the KCNA photos that the IRBM launched on Oct. 4 is a single-stage, liquid-fueled missile “consistent with the Hwasong-12,” but with several discernible differences, such as a new first-stage engine lacking smaller thrusters, as well as a greater range of approximately 4,500 kilometers (2,796 miles) compared to the 3,700 kilometers traveled by the Hwasong-12 in 2017.

 

If it was indeed a new IRBM that the North fired over Japan, it would suggest a great degree of confidence in the missile’s engine, Panda wrote in another post on Twitter.

 

“It’s unprecedented for North Korea to introduce and test a new long-range missile type on a 'normal' trajectory; usually, they ‘loft’ their large new missiles,” Panda wrote, referring to the North’s usual practice of firing such missiles at a sharp angle to reduce demonstrated range. 

 

“That they’d buck this trend and also overfly Japan suggests either a tremendous amount of confidence in this new engine, or a greater acceptance of risk.”

 


A photograph released by the KCNA shows the launch of a KN-23 short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) from an underwater platform in a reservoir during a recent test. [YONHAP]

The photos released by KCNA also provided visual confirmation that the regime launched a ballistic missile, likely a modified version of the KN-23, from an underwater platform in a reservoir, which was mentioned in agency’s Monday report.

 

That launch suggests the North remains intent on developing submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) technology that would make its missiles more difficult to detect and intercept.

 

SLBMs are strategic weapons essential to maintaining retaliatory or second strike capability in the event of a nuclear attack. They are more difficult to detect than ground-based ballistic missiles, which require launching facilities that can be more easily detected through satellite and air reconnaissance.

 

In response to Kim’s remarks, an official from the South Korean presidential office said Monday, “It is important to accurately recognize the severity of security issues in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia to prepare properly.”

 

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned Pyongyang’s recent missile launches and vowed to work toward “the complete denuclearization of North Korea in accordance with the U.N. Security Council resolutions.”

 

“This series of ballistic missile (launches) and these various provocative acts are in clear violation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions and are absolutely unacceptable,” Kishida told reporters when asked to comment on Kim’s remarks.

 

But Kim’s message to Seoul and Washington via state media suggests his regime will continue to carry out military actions that could worsen tensions on the peninsula and in the region.

 

“We must, first of all, send more definite signals with more powerful and resolute determination and actions to the enemy, who is aggravating tensions in the region by frequently deploying vast armed forces,” Kim was quoted as saying by the KCNA.

 


BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]



9. Tripartite security cooperation is a must​ (ROK, Japan, US)​


Conclusion:


Lee’s argument that the joint drill will be a pretext to Japan’s invasion of the Korean Peninsula originates with a serious ignorance of international affairs. It is like Ukraine rejecting support from Germany just because of World War II. Today, what threatens South Korea’s national security is North Korea’s nuclear missiles, not the Japan Self-Defense Forces.


Monday

October 10, 2022

 dictionary + A - A 

Tripartite security cooperation is a must

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/10/opinion/columns/security-cooperation-Korea-US/20221010193447776.html


Kim Jung-ha


The author is the political news director at the JoongAng Ilbo.


Russia, struggling in Ukraine these days, is threatening to use nuclear weapons. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is closely monitoring the movements of Russian nuclear forces because if President Vladimir Putin actually pushes the nuclear button, the most horrific crisis in human history could happen. But Ukraine is not the only country under a nuclear threat. Last month, North Korea legalized the conditions of its nuclear use. Simply put, the country concluded that it can use nuclear weapons even without a nuclear attack from an enemy as soon as it is convinced of an imminent attack. Furthermore, it also legislated the rights to use nukes to stop a prolonged war and seize control of the war. In other words, North Korea declared that it will preemptively use nuclear missiles, not as a means of a final counterattack.


The latest developments are serious enough to baffle the pro-North forces in South Korea who have long supported the North by saying that its nuclear weapons are for self-defense to counter U.S. threats. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who publicly promised in 2016 that he would never use nukes preemptively, reversed his words. He finally showed his true intentions.


“We will never abandon nuclear weapons or denuclearize the country. There will be no negotiation for denuclearization and nothing can be exchanged in return during any negotiation and process for this,” Kim said in a recent speech before the Supreme People’s Assembly. It became clear that the North Korean regime had no intention to give up nuclear weapons from the beginning and it just bought time by engaging in dialogue to advance its nuclear programs.


If North Korea uses nuclear weapons, South Korea is the first target and Japan the second. No matter how reckless Kim would be, he knows well that he will die the moment he launches a nuclear missile towards Washington. What can South Korea do now that it faces a substantial nuclear threat from North Korea? Ultimately, independently arming itself with nuclear weapons will be the resolution. But to this end, there are too many challenges to address. In realistic terms, the most effective solution is reinforcing military cooperation among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan to lower the possibility of North Korea making provocations. That will also serve as pressure on China, the longtime patron of the North.


But some still raise angry voices when it comes to Japan. Democratic Party (DP) Chairman Lee Jae-myung recently condemned joint South Korea-U.S.-Japan military exercise in the East Sea. “If we draw Japan into a joint drill, it can be interpreted as our acceptance of the Japan Self-Defense Forces as an official military of Japan,” Lee said. “It is an extremely pro-Japanese move. It is also extremely pro-Japanese national defense following the [Yoon Suk-yeol] administration’s humiliating diplomacy toward Japan.” Is Lee saying this is a pro-Japan defense?


After North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on July 4, 2017, President Moon Jae-in met with U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe three days later at the G20 Summit in Frankfurt, Germany. At that time, the three leaders agreed to strengthen tripartite security cooperation to effectively counter the North’s provocations. That was an upgrade of trilateral cooperation from the arrangement made by Moon’s predecessor, Park Geun-hye.


Three months later, four Aegis-class destroyers from the three countries conducted more exercises in the East Sea. During the Moon administration, the three countries conducted several more joint drills without public announcements. Actually, the latest trilateral military drill in the East Sea was agreed in October 2021 by the defense ministers of the three countries when the DP was in power. According to Chairman Lee’s logic, the Moon administration had promoted an extremely pro-Japanese national defense policy.


Going further back, the Roh Moo-hyun administration invited a warship of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces to a friendship event in the port of Incheon with the Korean navy in September 2007.

 


Former president Moon Jae-in, U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gesture before a summit on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany, July 6, 2017. In the meeting, they agreed to strengthen trilateral cooperation to cope with mounting nuclear threats from North Korea. [KIM SEONG-RYONG]



Lee’s argument that the joint drill will be a pretext to Japan’s invasion of the Korean Peninsula originates with a serious ignorance of international affairs. It is like Ukraine rejecting support from Germany just because of World War II. Today, what threatens South Korea’s national security is North Korea’s nuclear missiles, not the Japan Self-Defense Forces.



10. Do not dismiss saber-rattling​ (Korea)​



Can politics stop at the DMZ? (like in the US where we long thought politics used to stop at the shoreline).


Conclusion:


President Yoon Suk-yeol, his government and People Power Party (PPP) must convince the peace-blind DP leadership of the need to jointly deal with the nuclear threat from North Korea rather than turning a blind eye to it. If the government leaves the ideology-driven forces unattended, it will certainly have negative impact on security. As the presidential office said, a government must protect the lives and safety of the people before it is too late.




Monday

October 10, 2022

 dictionary + A - A 

Do not dismiss saber-rattling

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/10/opinion/editorials/North-Korea-SLBM-reservior/20221010193657629.html

On Monday, North Korea’s mouthpiece, the Rodong Sinmun, revealed the details of its firing of 12 missiles on seven occasions over the last two weeks. The paper ran a photo of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un watching a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) be fired from a reservoir. Such a firing pattern is unprecedented.


With the locations of the missile launches scattered across the country, North Korea launched various types of missiles with different ranges to show off its capability to fire nuclear warhead-tipped missiles at any place and time. The newspaper faithfully quoted Kim as saying, “We don’t feel any need to talk with our enemies.” North Korea has opened the way for a preemptive nuclear strike through legislation last month.


An emboldened North and the security situation around the Korean Peninsula are sounding loud alarms. Given the possibility of North Korea taking a cue from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use tactical nukes in the Ukraine war, South Korea must not dismiss the saber-rattling from the North as a bluff. Kim declared that North Korea is fully prepared to strike and destroy its targets at any place and time it chooses.


We must thoroughly brace for any contingency. The most urgent is a fast completion of the three-axis missile defense based on a Kill Chain pre-emptive strike system, the Korean Air and Missile Defense system and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan. Fortunately, the conservative Yoon Suk-yeol administration has started reactivating the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (Edscg) between the two allies. But the government must draw up a detailed action plan based on diverse scenarios.


More worrisome is the lax attitude in the South toward the alarming developments in the North. On national security, there should not be any divide between political enemies. But regrettably, Democratic Party (DP) Chairman Lee Jae-myung stigmatized the joint South Korea-U.S.-Japan drill in the East Sea as a “pro-Japanese defense posture.” The DP must recognize that a thorough military preparedness is not incompatible with finding a peaceful solution.


President Yoon Suk-yeol, his government and People Power Party (PPP) must convince the peace-blind DP leadership of the need to jointly deal with the nuclear threat from North Korea rather than turning a blind eye to it. If the government leaves the ideology-driven forces unattended, it will certainly have negative impact on security. As the presidential office said, a government must protect the lives and safety of the people before it is too late.




11. North Korea Says It Is Building Underwater Nuclear Weapons Silos





​Excerpt:


The report was the first time that North Korea claimed it was building underwater nuclear weapons silos, suggesting that the country was developing technology that would make its missiles more difficult to detect and intercept.


North Korea Says It Is Building Underwater Nuclear Weapons Silos

The country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has inspected a recent flurry of missile tests, vowing to increase — and never give up — his nuclear weapons.


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/10/world/asia/north-korea-underwater-nuclear-missiles.html

  • Give this article


A photograph provided by North Korean state media this week showed the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, monitoring a missile launch at an undisclosed location.Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images



By Choe Sang-Hun

Oct. 10, 2022, 1:46 a.m. ET

SEOUL — North Korea broke its silence on a recent flurry of missile tests on Monday as its state media reported that the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, had overseen the test launches of several nuclear-capable short-range ballistic missiles, including one that was fired from an underwater silo.

The report was the first time that North Korea claimed it was building underwater nuclear weapons silos, suggesting that the country was developing technology that would make its missiles more difficult to detect and intercept.

North Korean news media also published photos that purported to show a ballistic missile rising from under the waters of a reservoir. One of the recent tests, it said, was a rehearsal for firing nuclear weapons at airports in South Korea.

The North has launched 12 ballistic missiles in seven weapons tests in the last two weeks. All of them have been short-range missiles, except the intermediate-range ballistic missile launched on Oct. 4 that flew over Japan, triggering alarms across the country’s north.


On Monday, state-run media reported Mr. Kim’s presence at the testing sites for the first time in five months, releasing a ream of photographs. The country has conducted a record 25 missile tests this year.

The Significance of North Korea’s Missile Tests

Card 1 of 5An increase in activity. In recent months, North Korea has conducted several missile tests, hinting at an increasingly defiant attitude toward countries that oppose its growing military arsenal. Here’s what to know:

U.N. resolutions. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula started rising in 2017, when North Korea tested three intercontinental ballistic missiles and conducted a nuclear test. The United Nations imposed sanctions, and Pyongyang stopped testing nuclear and long-range missiles for a time.

Failed diplomacy. Former President Donald Trump met with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, three times between 2018 and 2019, hoping to reach a deal on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. After the talks broke down, North Korea resumed missile testing.

An escalation. North Korea started a new round of testing in September 2021​ after a six-month hiatus. It has since completed several tests, including the firing of multiple intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, that violated the 2017 U.N. resolutions.

A new provocation. On Oct. 4, 2022, North Korea fired an intermediate range ballistic missile over Japan for the first time in five years. The missile flew about 2,800 miles, the longest distance ever traveled by a North Korean weapon, according to officials in Tokyo and Seoul.

Monday marked the 77th anniversary of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, and its state media appeared to highlight Mr. Kim’s leadership by showcasing his country’s growing nuclear and missile capabilities — Mr. Kim’s biggest achievement since taking power more than a decade ago. Mr. Kim was quoted as saying that the recent tests were designed to demonstrate “our nuclear response posture and nuclear attack capabilities.”

He said his country felt no need to engage in “dialogue with the enemies.”

Under Mr. Kim, North Korea has demanded recognition as a nuclear weapons state, vowing to never bargain away its nuclear deterrent. Since Mr. Kim’s diplomacy with former President Donald J. Trump collapsed without an agreement, North Korea has doubled down on boosting its weapons programs, testing several new missiles that were harder to detect and intercept because they could fly at hypersonic speeds or change course during flight or were launched from railway cars rolled out of tunnels.

On Monday, North Korea said that in the missile test conducted Sept. 25, its soldiers simulated the loading of “tactical nuclear warheads at a silo under a reservoir,” testing their ability to launch ballistic missiles from “underwater silos​.”

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Image


A photograph provided by North Korean state media showed a missile launch at an undisclosed location in North Korea.Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images


Three days after that test, North Korea fired two short-range missiles to practice ​launching tactical nuclear warheads that could “neutralize” South Korean airports, its state media said on Monday.


North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs are shrouded in secrecy, making it hard to assess ​their true capabilities. But analysts say Mr. Kim was using stalled talks with Washington to test and improve his weapons and raise the stakes in future negotiations.

The missile North Korea launched over Japan on Oct. 4 was a new type of intermediate-range ballistic missile, the country said. It was the first North Korean missile to fly over Japan since North Korea test-fired two Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missiles in 2017. It traveled about 2,800 miles, the longest distance ever traveled by a North Korean weapon, it said, matching estimates from South Korean and Japanese officials.

When North Korea test-fired its intercontinental ballistic missiles in 2017 and again in March, it launched them at a deliberately steep angle​ so that they soared high into space before falling into waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

After the test in 2017, North Korea claimed the ability to deliver nuclear warheads to the continental United States. The short-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles it has launched in recent weeks were developed to target South Korea and United States military bases in the region, according to military experts.

North Korea on Monday released photos of artillery and rocket-firing exercises conducted last week, as well as an air-attack drill that it said involved more than 150 fighter planes. It was the first time North Korea deployed so many planes at the same time during an exercise, it said.

In Seoul, the office of President Yoon Suk Yeol said South Korea was boosting its alliance with the United States to deter North Korea. “We want North Korea to realize that possessing nuclear weapons not only endangers the peace and freedom of the region, but also does not help its own economy and security,” Kim Eun-hye, a spokeswoman for Mr. Yoon, said on Sunday.


On Friday, the Biden administration announced that it was imposing sanctions on several businessmen and companies in Asia that support the development of North Korean weapons.

North Korean Aggression


U.S. Targets Businessmen and Companies in New North Korea Sanctions

Oct. 7, 2022


North Korea Adopts New Law Hardening Its Nuclear Doctrine

Sept. 9, 2022


North Korea Fires 2 Ballistic Missiles, Condemning Security Council Meeting

Oct. 5, 2022


North Korea Fires Powerful Missile, Using Old Playbook in a New World

Oct. 3, 2022

Choe Sang-Hun is the Seoul bureau chief for The New York Times, focusing on news on North and South Korea. 



12. Chinese account for 62 pct of apartment purchases by foreigners since 2015: gov't




​Would controlling (or significantly influencing) the South Korean real estate market ​be considered a form of Chinese unrestricted warfare?



Chinese account for 62 pct of apartment purchases by foreigners since 2015: gov't

The Korea Times · October 10, 2022

This file photo from Sept. 23, shows downtown Seoul seen from Mount Nam filled with apartment complexes and buildings. Yonhap


Chinese nationals accounted for over 60 percent of apartment purchases by foreign nationals in South Korea since 2015, a government report showed Monday.


According to the land ministry report submitted to Rep. Yang Kyung-sook of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, the number of apartment purchase deals of Chinese nationals amounted to 18,465 between January 2015 and August of this year.


The tally accounts for 62 percent of a total of 29,792 apartment purchase deals by foreigners during the tracked period. Americans bought 5,855 apartments, or 19.6 percent of foreign purchases.


Apartment buying by foreigners, recorded at 2,979 in 2015, grew steadily to 3,930 in 2019 and surged 43.5 percent on-year in 2020 amid the then toughening of borrowing and home purchase rules for South Koreans to rein in skyrocketing housing prices.


The findings mark the first official government data on home purchases of foreigners in South Korea. The ministry plans to issue regular data on home transactions by foreigners starting in the first quarter of 2023. (Yonhap)



The Korea Times · October 10, 2022



13. What options does S. Korea have as US protectionism intensifies?


This may be the major friction point in our alliance going forward.



[ANALYSIS] What options does S. Korea have as US protectionism intensifies?

The Korea Times · October 10, 2022

US protectionism forces Seoul to take multilateral approach

By Kim Yoo-chul


The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the $430-billion climate and energy bill signed into law by U.S. President Joe Biden, has led to a considerable amount of discord in South Korea-United States relations.


Because the IRA requires vehicles to be assembled in Mexico, Canada and the United States _ NAFTA bloc _ the ineligibility of Hyundai Motor and affiliate Kia's electric vehicles (EVs) for federal tax credits offering U.S. consumers up to $7,500 will clearly put the South Korean automakers at a huge disadvantage in the United States market.


Seoul's presidential office claimed last week that Biden sent a letter to President Yoon Suk-yeol acknowledging Korea's concerns about the estimated impact of the legislation on the Korean auto industry.


Ruling People Power Party (PPP) politicians and political analysts are calling on the Biden administration to pay attention to growing complaints by South Korean businesses and politicians over its protectionist trade policies, citing how Korean businesses have supported Biden's CHIPS Act, primarily designed to shore up U.S. vulnerabilities in semiconductors, with the world's memory chip duo _ Samsung and SK _ announcing multi-billion-dollar investment plans on U.S. soil.


"The level of impact from the passage of IRA and CHIPS Act on Seoul-Washington relations won't be huge as these legislations are more about industrial policies. However, the point of concern is that it called into question the value of Seoul's most significant alliance," a senior trade ministry official to former President Moon Jae-in told The Korea Times in a telephone interview.


"Despite large-scale investment commitments, top South Korean businesses and Yoon administration officials are now voicing questions as to whether they could be able to trust the U.S. The controversy regarding the IRA illustrates the fact that Korean businesses and politicians feel like they are being mistreated," he added.


Protectionist policies, US midterm elections


Seoul's concerns over rising U.S. tech protectionism extend beyond the IRA.

As seen by South Korea's backing of the CHIPS Act, the Yoon Suk-yeol government has been working closely with the Biden administration to deepen bilateral economic cooperation in areas where Seoul has strengths.


U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about federal response efforts for Hurricane Ian at the Roosevelt Room of the White House on Sept. 30, 2022. AP-Yonhap


But as the global economic order undergoes reconfiguration with advanced economies pursuing economic nationalism, Yoon's economic and trade policy teams need to expand the scope of collaboration, according to business executives and government officials here.


"Our internal analysis has shown that there should be an acceleration in the division of the global economy into competing economic blocs over the next few years. Such an expected trend would result in greater friend-shoring between like-minded countries. This also means that trade relationships will be reshaped with countries they are politically in sync with because governments are set to avoid focusing supply in countries and regions that are politically unstable," said a senior executive at one LG Group's technology affiliate. "If necessary, South Korea should increase the level of its cooperation with the EU and other countries to better challenge U.S. protectionist trade policies."


Within that context, one option for the South Korean government is to file an official complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO). But filing such a complaint over the IRA alone won't have substantial backing, according to experts.

"It's very unlikely that the Biden administration will rectify IRA-related issues before the U.S. mid-term elections in November, because the passage of the IRA is aimed at appealing the Biden administration's initiatives to build up a pro-labor government," said a source in Washington by telephone.


The source added there is expected to be a continuation of working-level talks regarding Seoul's concerns in the process of enforcing the IRA. "No visible progress will be seen until the outcome of the midterm elections on Nov. 8," he said, adding Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the U.S.-China tussle are encouraging Biden administration officials to pursue Trump-style nationalism as foreign policy.


Over 80 percent of Americans consider inflation to be an extremely or very essential issue for the federal government to handle. But less than 30 percent of Americans approve Biden's management of the recent jump in the cost of living, a recent Monmouth University poll found.


Increasing lobbying activities, common voice


Just like their U.S. market shares, lobbying by South Korean businesses there is also on the rise.


According to data provided by Open Secret, a non-profit political watchdog, the amount of total spending on lobbying that the Korea's top four conglomerates spent rose from $5.83 million in 2020 to $9.83 million in 2021.


A Korean national flag, left, and a Samsung corporate flag, right, flutter outside the company's headquarters in southern Seoul on October 7, 2022. AFP-Yonhap


Samsung spent $3.72 million on lobbying last year, Hyundai Motor $1.95 million, LG $1.72 million and SK $2.5 million. During the first half of this year, the collective spending by Samsung, LG, Hyundai and SK for lobbying activities in the United States stood at $4.21 million.


Representatives at Samsung, LG, SK and Hyundai said because each of their stakes and employment numbers grow in the United States, it's becoming essential for them to increase their presence in Washington.


Also, an increasing number of sectors will be viewed as national security priorities over the next few years by EU member countries. Like the U.S., the EU's European Chips Act also stresses what is considered as a national security priority as more EU members grow increasingly tech dependent.


Because the Act is also aimed at making the EU more self-sufficient and will include priority order mechanisms for supply resilience during shortages, big South Korean businesses are asked to closely work together with EU governments to narrow differences and focus on possible common challenges in advance, government officials and experts said.


"As the Biden administration is pushing for the renaissance of U.S. manufacturing by pursuing a 'friend-shoring' strategy, companies which already have massive operations in the U.S. have no options but to spend more for lobbying activities because they are available to legislators to provide any specifics that are helpful for U.S. politicians," according to an industry executive. Samsung, LG Energy Solution and Hyundai operate massive semiconductor, battery and vehicle manufacturing plants in various U.S. states.


A lawmaker with the ruling party said South Korean businesses should speak with a common voice with other industry players.


"There are lots of issues that industry players have in common when pursued. If Samsung Electronics, for example, shares policy interests with other U.S. chipmakers, then Samsung can form a united front with one voice for mutually interested issues to U.S. legislators," the lawmaker said.



The Korea Times · October 10, 2022



14. Doubts grow over effectiveness of UN sanctions on North Korea



We have to have. realistic view of the UNSC with China and Russia as members. We will probably never ever have effective enforcement of north Korean sanctions.





Doubts grow over effectiveness of UN sanctions on North Korea

The Korea Times · by 2022-10-10 10:14 | North Korea · October 10, 2022

The United Nations Security Council meets to discuss a ballistic missile test by North Korea, Wednesday, at U.N. headquarters. AP-Yonhap


By Nam Hyun-woo

The ability of the United Nations Security Council to contain North Korea's missile and nuclear provocations is being questioned due to repeated failures of sanctions to tame the regime's belligerence.


As the council continues to remain deadlocked on further sanctions as permanent members China and Russia drag their heels, calls are growing for South Korea, the U.S. and Japan to consider unilateral or joint sanctions on the North to achieve better results.


On Oct. 5, the U.N. Security Council held a session to discuss how to handle North Korea's ballistic missile launch over Japan a day earlier, but ended without reaching any agreement on the next step as its permanent members _ the U.S., the U.K., China, Russia and France _ remained miles apart. Each of them has the power to veto a resolution.


The U.S. warned that the council's inability to reach a consensus will end up proving North Korea's resilience to foreign pressure. But Russia blamed the U.S. for prompting North Korea's actions, while China claimed that the real issue is a confrontation between Washington and Pyongyang.


As the council failed again to adopt a resolution condemning the recent provocations, Pyongyang launched two short-range ballistic missiles on Thursday and another two on Sunday. The North has fired 12 missiles since Sept. 23, when the U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan entered South Korean waters to take part in military exercises.



NK says recent tests were 'tactical nuclear' drills, overseen by Kim

As the council remains incapable of handling the North's saber-rattling actions, South Korea is considering imposing its own sanctions on Pyongyang.


"The government is considering imposing independent sanctions, as part of seeking a strong response to the North's anticipated seventh nuclear weapon test or other serious provocations," South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lim Soo-suk said at a press briefing on Thursday. "However, we will consider the content of the sanctions, the timing of the announcement and other details, based on the North's level of provocations."


This is not the first time that South Korea has been dropping hints at adopting its own sanctions against the Kim Jong-un regime. Multiple senior officials at the Yoon Suk-yeol administration have suggested imposing independent sanctions on the North.


The U.S. already sanctioned two people and three firms from Singapore, Taiwan and the Marshall Islands on Friday accused of helping North Korea procure fuel, while Japan's upper house has adopted a resolution urging Tokyo to impose independent sanctions against the North.

A TV screen showing a news program reporting North Korea's missile launch through file footage, is seen at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Sunday. North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles Sunday. AP-Yonhap


However, experts are skeptical about the effectiveness of independent sanctions, because the ability of existing international economic sanctions has been questioned when it comes to impairing North Korea's ability to fund its missile programs.


"The sanctions themselves are hardly dealing any serious damage to the North's economic system or financing cycle, but they are rather aimed at labeling countries having companies or individuals who made transactions with North Korea," said Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.


"Independent sanctions imposed by the U.S. or the European Union are deemed rather effective given the U.S.' prowess in the international economy, and the North has long been making trade efforts to European countries. However, it is hard to say that of South Korea or Japan will have the same impact," he added.

Against this backdrop, calls are also growing for the U.S. to consider a secondary boycott on companies assumed to be trading with North Korea. But Hong said this is a difficult choice, because most of those companies are assumed to be Chinese, which could further aggravate the U.S.-China rivalry.



The Korea Times · by 2022-10-10 10:14 | North Korea · October 10, 2022



15. Don't play with nukes (north Korea)



There is certainly some logic to the increased tensions for domestic political purposes.


Conclusion:


The Kim regime seems to be using the nuclear program to tighten his grip on power and promote internal unity amid the North's economic hardship. We urge him to stop his nuclear blackmail and return to dialogue. It is regrettable that Kim has dismissed the idea of restarting talks and vowed not to give up his nuclear arsenal. He must keep in mind that his nuclear program will only deepen the North's isolation and aggravate its economic woes.


Don't play with nukes

The Korea Times · October 10, 2022

North Korea should stop raising tensions

North Korea has gone too far in making nuclear threats to South Korea and the United States. It conducted a series of military drills from Sept. 25 to Oct. 9 in response to combined naval exercises between the South and the U.S., according to the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).


Marking the 77th anniversary of the establishment of the ruling Workers' Party on Monday, the state media carried different photos of the drills including missile launches with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un overseeing them. What's notable is that the North's military staged "ballistic missile launching drills under the simulation of loading tactical nuclear warheads" according to the KCNA dispatch. The news agency reported that Kim guided exercises by nuclear tactical operation units over the past two weeks, using mock nuclear warheads.


The KCNA said the aim of the drills was to check and assess the "war deterrent and nuclear counterattack capability" in response to the recent Seoul-Washington maritime exercises involving the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS Ronald Reagan, and its strike group. The North was trying to intensify its nuclear threats against the South and the U.S. while denouncing the defensive combined drills as a rehearsal to invasion.


On Oct. 4, the Kim regime heightened tensions in East Asia by test-firing a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) which flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific. The launch, the first of its kind since 2017, was apparently in response to the trilateral naval exercise between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo which was actually held as a countermeasure against the North's escalating missile and nuclear threats.


What's worrisome is that the North is in the process of developing and deploying smaller tactical nuclear warheads for battlefield use which are designed for use on short-range ballistic missiles. Such warheads pose serious security threats to the South as they can hit virtually any target on the southern part of the peninsula. Pyongyang also raised concerns by test-firing a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from a reservoir, an apparent move to evade the missile defense network of the South's military and the U.S. Forces Korea. Besides, the North flew more than 150 warplanes in formation simultaneously in a large-scale air-attack drill Saturday. It was unprecedented for the North to stage such a drill.


Those exercises and the test-firing of mock tactical warheads and an SLBM from a reservoir could be seen as a harbinger of the North's seventh nuclear test. Such moves came after the North's Supreme People's Assembly passed a bill last month that will enable Pyongyang to wage preemptive nuclear strikes.


The Kim regime seems to be using the nuclear program to tighten his grip on power and promote internal unity amid the North's economic hardship. We urge him to stop his nuclear blackmail and return to dialogue. It is regrettable that Kim has dismissed the idea of restarting talks and vowed not to give up his nuclear arsenal. He must keep in mind that his nuclear program will only deepen the North's isolation and aggravate its economic woes.




The Korea Times · October 10, 2022

16. Crypto Hackers Are Secretly Funding North Korea's Nuclear Weapons



Excerpts:


Now there's a new hypothesis: The people interviewing for jobs were North Koreans trying to siphon money to the reclusive nation. That's in accord with warnings from both the FBI and the Treasury Department, which have cautioned about North Korea's escalating risk to the cryptocurrency industry.
The danger is more than theoretical, as one catastrophic hack in March showed. The Lazarus Group, a hacking outfit associated with North Korea's government, managed to drain over $600 million in crypto from a blockchain used by NFT game Axie Infinity. North Korean hackers stole $840 million in the first five months of 2022, according to Chainalysis data, over $200 million more than they'd plundered in 2020 and 2021 combined.
That is of extraordinary consequence. About a third of the crypto North Korea loots goes into its weapons program, including nuclear weapons, estimates Anne Neuberger, a deputy national security adviser in the Biden administration. It's also funneled to the country's espionage operations. When two South Koreans earlier this year were revealed to have been stealing military information for a North Korean spy, it turned out they'd been paid in bitcoin.
"Crypto is arguably now essential to North Korea," said Nick Carlsen, a former North Korea analyst at the FBI who now works for crypto security firm TRM Labs. "By any standard, they are a crypto superpower."




Crypto Hackers Are Secretly Funding North Korea's Nuclear Weapons

cnet.com

It was an astonishing interview for recruiter Elliott Garlock. While screening candidate engineers for a crypto firm in February, Garlock encountered one applicant who raised almost every conceivable red flag.

The interviewee joined the Zoom interview with his camera off and had to be cajoled into turning it on. There was constant chatter in the background, like he was jammed in a small, crowded room. He claimed to be from San Francisco but, when pressed, wasn't able to pinpoint his location more precisely than "Bay Area."

It was a strange and unproductive interview. Worst of all, it was the first of many. Garlock, the founder of the Stella Talent Partners recruitment firm, soon encountered another, nearly identical candidate. Then another, and another and another.

"I got annoyed after a while, because it was a total waste of time," Garlock said. "I originally thought the scam was that they were offshore, trying to take advantage of remote work to just get a salary for not working."

Now there's a new hypothesis: The people interviewing for jobs were North Koreans trying to siphon money to the reclusive nation. That's in accord with warnings from both the FBI and the Treasury Department, which have cautioned about North Korea's escalating risk to the cryptocurrency industry.

The danger is more than theoretical, as one catastrophic hack in March showed. The Lazarus Group, a hacking outfit associated with North Korea's government, managed to drain over $600 million in crypto from a blockchain used by NFT game Axie Infinity. North Korean hackers stole $840 million in the first five months of 2022, according to Chainalysis data, over $200 million more than they'd plundered in 2020 and 2021 combined.

That is of extraordinary consequence. About a third of the crypto North Korea loots goes into its weapons program, including nuclear weapons, estimates Anne Neuberger, a deputy national security adviser in the Biden administration. It's also funneled to the country's espionage operations. When two South Koreans earlier this year were revealed to have been stealing military information for a North Korean spy, it turned out they'd been paid in bitcoin.

"Crypto is arguably now essential to North Korea," said Nick Carlsen, a former North Korea analyst at the FBI who now works for crypto security firm TRM Labs. "By any standard, they are a crypto superpower."

A crypto superpower with nuclear weapons, that is. A country whose crypto prowess, North Korea watchers say, is directly funding the development of those nukes, with the odds of a new nuclear weapons test growing. The rogue nation has been ratcheting up ballistic missile tests in the past 10 days: Over 5 million residents of Japan were told to seek immediate shelter on Wednesday after North Korea launched a missile over the island of Hokkaido. It's highly likely this, too, was funded at least in part by stolen cryptocurrency.

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, as North Korea is formally known, has come to depend more on crypto since the pandemic began. It historically relied on black market trade, exporting coal, meth, cigarettes and labor to Southeast Asia, Russia and especially China. But the zero COVID strategy of leader Kim Jong Un has closed borders, thinning the country's already slight revenues. Trade with China, by far North Korea's biggest economic partner, fell 80% in 2020, and reports of food shortages abound. At the same time, cryptocurrency values have skyrocketed.

Despite the recent crypto crash, bitcoin is trading 250% higher than before the pandemic. Ether, the second biggest cryptocurrency, is up over 700%.

Garlock estimates he encountered a dozen candidates he now considers North Korean operatives between February and April. None of them got referred to one of his client companies, which is lucky. North Korean hackers have shown they can cause immense damage if they manage to dupe just one person.

One bad click

A single corrupted file can leave disaster in its wake. The Axie Infinity hack that netted North Korea over $600 million in crypto started with just that: a tainted PDF.

Axie Infinity is a web browser game similar to Pokemon, except that the Axie creatures you battle are owned as NFTs and can be traded for crypto. To support this digital economy, developer Sky Mavis created its own blockchain called Ronin, whose sole purpose is to process Axie Infinity transactions. At its peak in August 2021, the game was generating over $15 million a day. A senior engineer who worked on Ronin was approached by North Korean operatives on LinkedIn earlier this year, according to a report from The Block. After several rounds of interviews, the engineer received a formal job offer via PDF.

The Ronin blockchain runs on a proof-of-authority model, wherein validation control is given to nine handpicked accounts. To gain control of the blockchain, bad actors needed to control five of these nine validator accounts. When the senior engineer clicked the infected link, he unwittingly gave North Korean hackers keys to four of those validators. Once they were inside Axie Infinity's computer system, hackers were able to get keys for a fifth. The $600 million was drained shortly after.

Sky Mavis didn't respond to a request for comment. But in a post-mortem published in April, the company said: "Sky Mavis employees are under constant advanced spear-phishing attacks on various social channels and one employee was compromised. … The attacker managed to leverage that access to penetrate Sky Mavis IT infrastructure and gain access to the validator nodes."

It's possible the North Korean operatives hired a middleman company to orchestrate the faux employer phishing scheme. That's what they did in 2019, paying an actor to play an executive in fake job interviews with the goal of infiltrating the computer systems of Chile's Redbanc. (North Korea never got to steal from the bank, thanks to an eagle-eyed IT guy, who saw suspicious activity on the network.)

It's tempting to write off the Ronin hack as a disorganized crypto company being exploited. But the same tactics have worked against world-renowned targets. The infamous Sony hack of 2014, a response to the studio's distribution of Seth Rogan's The Interview, a comedy about an assassination attempt on Kim, was achieved in much the same way. Hackers gained access to Sony's computer network by pretending to be a businessman, former assistant US attorney Tony Lewis told the BBC.


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Axie Infinity, a once popular NFT-based web game, used its own blockchain, called Ronin. It was hacked by North Korean operatives, according to the FBI.

Sky Mavis

Emails from the businessman, ostensibly about his wish to work with Sony, contained a link infected with malware, a link that at least one employee clicked. Two months later, computers at Sony headquarters went black, and the Lazarus Group, North Korea's most notorious hacking outfit, made its presence known. (At the time, the culprits called themselves Guardians of Peace.)

Months later, North Korean operatives pretended to be a job applicant and sent resumes to employees of Bangladesh's central bank. This time at least three employees clicked the link, according to Symantec cybersecurity expert Eric Chien, giving them access to the bank's computer network. The attackers waited a full year to make their move and, in February 2016, attempted to send $951 million from Bangladesh Bank's account with the Federal Reserve to accounts in the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

It was a carefully orchestrated heist. Hackers spent a year learning about the bank's IT system, and planned the robbery on a Thursday that coincided with both Bangladesh's Friday-Saturday weekend and a Philippine public holiday on the Monday, delaying alerts on both ends. Yet it was hamstrung by a stroke of bad luck. After several transactions went through, the Federal Reserve blocked the next $851 million. The attackers sent money to a Philippine bank located on a Jupiter Street. That triggered an alert because, by sheer coincidence, an unrelated Greek company called Jupiter Seaways Shipping was already on the Fed's sanctions watch list for helping Iran bypass oil sanctions.

Though it didn't go to plan, North Korean operatives still managed to steal $64 million from Bangladesh Bank.

"All of the skills they've learned, they're basically now applying it to crypto," said Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst who's now at the Rand Corporation, a think tank.

North Korea's considerable cyber capabilities are a paradox. In a rare 2017 survey the UN was allowed to conduct, only 1% of North Korean households were found to have internet access. Despite this, the DPRK has developed a formidable army of computer hackers.

"They basically do a talent search when kids from elite families are sent to elementary schools," Rand's Kim explained. "They send these kids abroad to Russia to get the [hacking] skills, and that's how they patriotically serve the country. They find ways to infiltrate networks."

It's estimated that around 7,000 North Koreans work in North Korea's cyber program. Kim Jong Un in the past has called his elite cyberattackers "warriors" that can "penetrate any sanctions for the construction of a strong and prosperous nation."


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The US government has charged North Korea with the Sony Pictures hack and the Bangladesh Bank heist.

Mario Tama / Staff

Crypto is an obvious target for these cyber soldiers. The very point of cryptocurrency is decentralization, meaning there's no Federal Reserve to block $851 million. The Ronin hack was a boon for North Korea. Naturally, it didn't stop there.

Harmony Bridge is a protocol that allows traders to send crypto between blockchains. It was exploited in June, and drained of $100 million. The FBI has named North Korea as the culprit. The hack started like all the others, with one person making an honest mistake.

"We believe the hackers … employed phishing schemes to trick at least one software developer to install malicious software on their laptop," Harmony core team member Jack Chan wrote in August.

In just two moves, North Korea stole $700 million worth of crypto, over 10 times the amount it burgled from Bangladesh Bank. It's also more than the $650 million the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses estimates North Korea spent on missile tests between January and June.

Hard interviews

William Burleson describes speaking to a suspected North Korean operative as "one of the most awkward things I've done in my life." Burleson is head of growth at crypto recruitment firm Up Top Search, and was building the company's Discord channel so recruitment could be done within the popular messaging platform.

In his first week on the job, Burleson encountered three suspicious candidates he now believes were North Korean operatives.

Just as in Garlock's cases, the candidates were apprehensive about turning their cameras on. In some cases Burleson could hear whispering, as though someone offscreen was trying to tell the candidate how to answer Burleson's questions in real time.

"Just very weird, delayed responses, hearing the same words or phrases consistently," Burleson said, describing the interviews. "I know they weren't based in the States [as they claimed] due to the time zone difference. I only saw them appearing online on Discord during the Eastern Asia hours."

These candidates typically have poor English skills, but a language barrier isn't what makes these interviews so stilted. Encountering ESL engineers and developers isn't unusual in crypto recruitment — there was something different, something intangibly amiss with these particular candidates.

"This group of people have these very flat affects," Garlock recalls. "They don't have positive or negative emotions that flash on their face."

Burleson called talking to them eerie. "You could just tell, human to human, something is off."

He noted that several sketchy candidates, instead of leaving a resume, would leave links on Discord to protocols they had allegedly worked on. When Burleson ran these links through a safety checker, they always failed the test.


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Kim Jong Un's strict zero COVID strategy has seen borders tightly shut, weakening the country's already weak exports. The regime has come to rely more on stolen crypto as a result.

Kim Won Jin/Getty

Infected links are a dead giveaway of suspicious activity, but it's not always so obvious. Dan Eskrow, founder of Up Top Search, thinks he has a way of identifying these North Korean operatives.

"Instead of going through your pitch, you ask him, 'How's the weather in Kansas? How's your day going?'" Eskrow explained. "They explode. They panic because their instructor, whoever's telling them what to say, hasn't prepared them to answer questions like 'How's the weather?'"

One time, Burleson said, a candidate left the call after being asked an off-topic query. Most times, a tangential question is just met with an uncomfortable blank stare.

Operations attributed to North Korea vary in their sophistication. Mandiant, a cybersecurity firm that in July warned of increased North Korean activity in crypto, says there are likely several groups within North Korea working to funnel money from crypto to the regime. The Lazarus Group is the best known cell of hackers, but only one of many.

Some groups are more skilled than others. Much of what Mandiant detects is sloppy work. Bad actors have presented screenshots of code they claim to have written, only for these pictures to be discovered stolen from freelance job boards. Often these operatives steal resumes but don't even bother changing the names and references.

"There are most likely thousands of these operators attempting to gain employment all over the world, and each individual can run multiple personas all at the same time," said Joe Dobson, senior principal analyst at Mandiant.

There are several reasons crypto firms are particularly vulnerable to North Korea infiltration. Normalized remote work allows bad actors operating out of North Korea or China to feign US or Canadian origin. Crypto culture also relishes anonymity. Personal details are often rejected at a philosophical level as being irrelevant — the very creator of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, remains pseudonymous to this day. And while tech companies often hire people to build the company around, Garlock says, crypto companies approach hiring more experimentally: hire liberally, keep them if they're good, cut them if they're not.

Many crypto companies are run by young, first-time CEO entrepreneurs, Garlock explained. People who tend to know a lot about crypto but have little or no experience running a company. "At the same time, they're super capitalized," he said. "You have, like, a 25-year-old crypto CEO, who, between his crypto assets and cash assets, has between $25 [million] and $500 million in capital."

The reasons North Korea targets the crypto industry are easy to understand. What happens after the money is stolen, however, is less obvious.

After the steal

Authorities and researchers are slowly piecing together the details of North Korea's crypto activities, but a few crucial pieces are missing. We know North Korea doesn't liquidate stolen crypto in one big sale. Instead, it sells batches of bitcoin and ether over a period of months or years, trickle feeding the regime millions of dollars at a time. The crypto stolen from the Ronin blockchain in March, for instance, is still being offloaded.

That's according to Nick Carlsen, the former FBI researcher now at TRM Labs, who tracks North Korea's blockchain activities. Selling all the crypto at once, or at more regular intervals, would make it much easier to trace.

"What they're doing with this Ronin hack, they're up against the limit of how much money you can launder in the crypto ecosystem," Carlsen said.

Laundering cryptocurrency is easier than laundering US bills, but it still requires work. Bad guys make use of several tools. First are bridges, like the Harmony Bridge that North Korea hacked, which allow traders to send crypto between different blockchains. Then there are mixers, which mask where crypto comes from. You could, for instance, send 5 bitcoin from Wallet A to a mixer, where it's tumbled around with crypto sent by other people. Five bitcoin are then taken from that pool and sent to Wallet B, making it harder to track its precise provenance.

Just as money launderers shift money between different banks and institutions, crypto launderers send money between bridges and mixers in order to hide blemished tokens within bags of clean ones. To disguise funds stolen from Ronin, tokens have been sent between 12,000 different crypto addresses, according to Chainalysis.


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The US Treasury in August banned Tornado Cash, a cryptocurrency "mixer" that masks the origin of cryptocurrency sent between wallets.

Bloomberg/Getty

The US is trying to make this process harder for crypto launderers in general and North Korea in particular. Citing the threat from the Kim regime, the US Treasury banned bitcoin mixer Blender in May, followed by the Tornado Cash mixer in August.

"We are taking action against illicit financial activity by the DPRK and will not allow state-sponsored thievery and its money-laundering enablers to go unanswered," Brian Nelson, the US Treasury's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in May.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle is the crypto exchanges you or your friends might use. Exchanges like Binance and Coinbase are dead ends for blockchain tracers. It's easy to see that money is sent to an exchange like Binance, but tracking those tokens within the exchange — between different user accounts, for instance — is impossible without subpoena power, said Convex Labs head of research Nick Bax.

It would be too strong to call exchanges like Binance safe havens. They have anti-money laundering protocols, some with actual teeth: Binance in April recovered $5.8 million in crypto stolen from Ronin, for instance. Still, to researchers like Bax, the barriers that exchanges throw up are far harder to penetrate than mixers like Tornado Cash.

"Roughly 25% of the funds deposited in Tornado over a certain timespan originated in the Ronin hack," Bax said. "You can't hide that amount of money in that size anonymity pool, it just doesn't work."

"We can trace the funds in and out of Tornado," he added, "but the centralized exchanges, Coinbase, Binance, Houbi, are a mixer unless you have subpoena powers."

Bax sees both sides of the issue. The same wall that obstructs his investigations, he points out, has also stopped Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime from tracing crypto sent to imprisoned political opponent Alexei Navalny.

The downside to North Korea's modus operandi is that it takes time and patience, which has proven costly. In the months since the Ronin heist, for instance, the $600 million haul has been devalued to about $250 million. But the advantage for the regime is that it can obscure some of its movements. While FBI and crypto researchers are often able to confidently say North Korea is behind a certain hack, it's less clear who's buying North Korea's crypto, and for how much.

It's thought that much of North Korea's stolen crypto is offloaded to Chinese buyers, but few particulars are known. The Department of Justice in 2020 found two Chinese nationals guilty of laundering some of the $100 million North Korea stole from a Hong Kong-based exchange in 2018, but that charge was an exception. What happens after dirty crypto is laundered remains largely opaque.

North Korea is "not going to get 99 cents on the dollar for its crypto," Carlsen explained. "What the actual rate is, I don't think anyone has a really solid answer on that. But the kind of guy who's going to buy $20 million worth of stolen bitcoin is not going to pay $20 million."


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Footage in a South Korean TV station of a North Korea missile test in January. The Kim regime has restarted aggressions against its southern neighbor after a few quiet COVID years.

Jung Yeon-Je/Getty

Mass destruction

Though precise details about buyers are unclear, there's little doubt about where the profits from North Korea's stolen crypto are funneled. "It's going to illegal weapons programs," Rand's Soo Kim said. "It's going to funding Kim's luxurious lifestyle." That ill-gotten crypto gains are funding North Korea's weapons program has also been flagged by the Treasury.

The risks entailed by Kim's weapons program were simultaneously highlighted and overshadowed by the political spectacle of Donald Trump's presidency. But over 5 million Japanese residents were reminded of those risks on Wednesday when North Korea launched a ballistic missile over the island of Hokkaido. The launch triggered Hokkaido's air-raid alerts, and any resident watching TV was urged to take shelter immediately.

It was the fifth launch from North Korea in a week, with other missiles landing in Korean and Japanese seas. After staying relatively quiet during the pandemic, the Kim regime has resumed an aggressive stance against the US and South Korea, its perennial rival. In September, North Korea's parliament rubber-stamped a new law stating nuclear missiles would be launched if South Korea or the US tried to assassinate Kim.

When South Korea's new president, Yoon Suk-yeol, offered Kim economic incentives for denuclearization, the DPRK regime balked. Kim's sister, Yo Jong, said Yoon was "still childish" and "should shut his mouth."

"No one barters their destiny for corn cake," she added.

North Korea is recognized by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists as one of the potential flashpoints for a nuclear war. Formed by Albert Einstein after atomic weapons flattened Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Bulletin maintains the Doomsday Clock. As unwelcome as your 6 a.m. alarm may be, this alarm clock is far worse: The closer the Doomsday Clock is set to midnight, the closer Bulletin scientists estimate we are to our end.

In January, it was set as late as it's ever been in its 75-year history: 100 seconds to midnight. For comparison, in 1949 after the Soviet Union exploded its first atomic bomb, the Doomsday Clock was set at 3 minutes to midnight. When the Soviet Union dissolved in the early 1990s, the clock was wound back to 17 minutes to midnight.

Recent worries about nuclear war have understandably been concentrated in Ukraine. Facing embarrassing battlefield failures in its war there, Putin has made increasingly explicit nuclear threats. Another problem country is Iran, which is slowly building its nuclear capacity. Like North Korea, Iran has been besieged by economic sanctions. But the Khamenei administration is buoyed by flowing oil reserves. North Korea is unique in its utilization of cryptocurrency to avoid the sanctions tied to its nuclear program.


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Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has raised questions about nuclear escalation, but that's not the world's only nuclear threat.

Bloomberg/Getty

North Korea's recent missile tests are thought to be partially in response to US Vice President Kamala Harris' visit to South Korea in September. Experts like Rand's Soo Kim think they presage a nuclear weapons test, which would be the first since September 2017.

"Some people think it's bluffing and, to an extent, there is going to be a little bit of that," Kim said. "But if Kim [Jong Un] was not serious about using the weapons, he would not be displaying them, he would not be flaunting them, and he would not be doing it so diligently."

Nuclear weapons act as an invaluable set of cards for North Korea, Rand's Kim explained. Even if it has no intention of dismantling its weapon program, the regime can play that hand when it needs to. The stakes are so high that officials in Washington and Seoul are forced to take note. Meanwhile, the most effective way to confront North Korea would be with the help of China, North Korea's biggest unofficial trade partner. The trouble is, Soo Kim said, North Korea is itself a bargaining chip for China. It could help rein its raucous neighbor in, but what is Washington willing to do in return?

While this game is being played, the Doomsday Clock ticks on.

Teach a man to phish

The US government is limited in what it can do to stop North Korea's crypto heists. The Treasury Department is actively trying to dull laundering tools used by the regime, leading to its bans on Tornado Cash and Blender. Perhaps more significantly, the FBI has been working to recover stolen funds. Collaborating with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, the FBI in September froze $30 million in crypto stolen from Ronin.

"It's like we're in a catchup game," Soo Kim said, "where you're not fast enough to actually meet North Korea at the destination, but you're always just following after them."

A more effective route, according to Convex Labs' Bax, is to stop the hacks from happening in the first place. "We always take the reactive approach, chasing the money after it's been stolen," he said. "That money is being reinvested into criminal enterprises. We have to prevent it before it happens. That's the only way."

Bax points out that North Korea specializes in phishing scams — estimating that around half of all crypto phishing scams come out of North Korea — and so helping people detect phishing attacks should be a priority. He also advocates government-subsidized security audits. It took only one engineer to be phished for Ronin's funds to be drained, while attackers needed only two signatures to steal $100 million from Harmony Bridge.

Major hacks attributed to North Korea have died down in recent months. The crypto winter, when bitcoin and ether plunged in value amid recession fears, has led to a hiring freeze. The regime is also still busy laundering the funds it stole during the first half of the year. But the industry has proven too lucrative for North Korea to cease operations.

"It's going to take a really critical moment, some major incident that really shocks people, and then there's going to be a lot of pressure to do something," said Carlsen. "It's a constant waiting game.

"There's going to be another one coming."

cnet.com



17. 


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De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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