Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners



Quotes of the Day:


Campaigning to Gain Military Advantage, Enhance Deterrence, and Address Gray Zone Challenges. The Department will actively campaign across domains and the spectrum of conflict. Campaigning initiatives will improve our baseline understanding of the operating environment and seek to shape perceptions, including by sowing doubt in our competitors that they can achieve their objectives or conduct unattributed coercive actions. They will disrupt competitor warfighting advantages while reinforcing our own, and enhance interoperability and access. Working with Allies and partners, we will build and exercise force elements needed in crisis or conflict, such as infrastructure, logistics, command and control, dispersal and relocation, and mobilization. National Defense Strategy, 2022, Page 12

"Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.”  2017 NDAA

“U.S. dominance in conventional warfare has given prospective adversaries, particularly non-state actors and their state sponsors, strong motivation to adopt asymmetric methods to counter our advantages. For this reason, we must display a mastery of irregular warfare comparable to that which we possess in conventional combat.” National Defense Strategy 2008, Page 4


1. North Korea Sees New Opportunities in ‘Neo-Cold War’ 

2. N. Korea unresponsive to S. Korea's bid to return body of presumed N. Korean

3. Former special counsel indicted for alleged graft

4. US to expand strategic asset deployment to counter N.K.’s provocations

5. Yoon, Biden, Kishida agree to real-time intel sharing

6. History Proves China Will Never Help Biden on North Korea

7. Hong Kong protest anthem played at Rugby Sevens series in Korea

8. US midterm results to sideline North Korea issue: experts

9. South and North Korea at Risk of New Crisis

10. Strengthened deterrence (ROK-Japan - US)

11. N. Korean authorities continue to conduct public executions of alleged criminals

12. Hackers use S. Korean internet security agency as a disguise to mount cyberattacks

13. No Itaewon witch hunts

14. Artillery shell exports to US

15. Biden raises concerns about N. Korea's provocations in summit with China's Xi

16. [Herald Interview] Biden must alienate Pyongyang from Beijing for N.Korea policy to work

17. The Near-Perfect North Korean Embassy Raid That Went Sour

18. PH supports S. Korea’s bid to denuclearize peninsula

19. South Korea aligns Indo-Pacific strategy with US, Japan: experts

20. Biden: Partnership with Japan, South Korea ‘more important’ in face of North Korea threat




1. North Korea Sees New Opportunities in ‘Neo-Cold War’


The global environment is ripe for Kim Jong Un's political warfare.  


Just to review north Korean strategy:


Political Warfare

Subversion, coercion, extortion – set conditions for use of force

“Blackmail diplomacy” – the use of tension, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions

Example: Kim Yo-jong threats in June – ROK anti-leaflet law in December

Negotiate to set conditions - not to denuclearize

Set Conditions for unification (domination to complete the revolution)

Split ROK/US alliance

Reduce/weaken defense of the South

Exploit regional powers (e.g, China and Russia)

Economics by Juche ideology – the paradox of “reform”

Illicit activities to generate funds for regime

Deny human rights to ensure regime survival

Continue to exploit COVID threat to suppress dissent and crack down on 400+ markets and foreign currency use

”COVID Paradox” – deathly afraid of COVID outbreak – COVID opportunity for draconian PRCM to exert greater control over the population to prevent resistance

- Priority to military and nuclear programs

For deterrence or domination?


north Korean Subversion

The undermining of the power and authority of an established system or institution.

As in: "the ruthless subversion of democracy"

Ideological War – a choice between:

Shared ROK/US Values:

Freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights

 Kim family regime (KFR) “values”

Juche/Kimilsungism/now "KIMJONGUNISM," Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and denial of human rights to sustain KFR power

nK engages in political warfare and active subversion of the ROK

North Korea Sees New Opportunities in ‘Neo-Cold War’

nytimes.com · by Choe Sang-Hun · November 13, 2022

Kim Jong-un has launched a record number of missiles this year, hoping to leverage the tension between the United States and China, and to exploit hostilities toward Moscow.

A photograph provided by North Korean state media showed Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, speaking last month at the Central Academy of the Workers’ Party of Korea in Pyongyang.Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

SEOUL — Russia’s war in Ukraine rages on. China has doubled down on its promise to take Taiwan. In the United States, clashes between Democrats and Republicans have hardened political divisions. With the Biden administration occupied on multiple fronts, North Korea, a tiny, isolated nation of ​25 million people, has seemed determined to make Washington pay attention, its leader, Kim Jong-un, warning that the United States should no longer consider itself a “unipolar” superpower in a new “Cold War.”

Mr. Kim has spent much of the year antagonizing ​the United States and its allies, testing a record number of​ missiles — 86 — and even rehears​ing to fire a nuclear missile ​at South Korea. In a single day this month, North Korea fired 23 missiles​, one of which crashed into waters only 35 miles off South Korea’s east coast, prompting islanders to seek shelter underground.​ It has flown Soviet-era war planes and launched hundreds of artillery shells near the border with South in recent weeks, in addition to firing an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan.

With Russia hinting at threats to use nuclear weapons and relations between Washington and Beijing worsening, Mr. Kim most likely senses opportunity: In an increasingly destabilized world, there is no better time to test ​his weapons, show off his advancing technology and provoke ​his enemies with virtual impunity​ while trying to gain diplomatic leverage.

“North Korea has been shooting whatever it wanted to shoot, it has been testing whatever it wanted to test,” said Lee Seong-Hyon, a senior fellow and North Korea expert at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. “But we are in a time when neither the United States nor South Korea can do much about it.”

By​ Mr. Kim’s own admission, North Korea’s economy is suffering mightily, hit by years of U.N. sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic. ​But Mr. Kim, 38, who assumed power more than a decade ago, seems to see the geopolitical tide turning in his favor. During a parliamentary speech last year, he described a “neo-Cold War” emerging around the globe. In another speech, ​he encouraged his country to ​prepare for “the change from a unipolar world advocated by the U.S. into a multipolar world,” in which China and other U.S. adversaries lead as equals.

​These developments have raised hopes in Pyongyang that North Korea could again enjoy the sort of financial and military support it used to get from Beijing and Moscow during the old Cold War, analysts said. “No country welcomes a new Cold War like North Korea, because it increases its strategic value to China and Russia,” Mr. Lee said. “To an isolated and underdeveloped country like North Korea that sees itself as in a constant standoff with external enemies, no environment is conducive to its survival like a Cold War.”

There is a school of thought in which the Cold War never ended, and that the dividing line between the two Koreas, known as the Demilitarized Zone, is a symbol of the unfinished business of dueling great powers. (The Korean War ended in an armistice in 1953, meaning the two nations are technically still at war.) The Kim dynasty’s ​survival plan has long been tied to its nuclear weapons program and promise of economic development in the face of Western admonishment.

Mr. Kim views his nuclear arsenal as essential to ensuring his regime’s security and ​​keeping an upper hand over South Korea, which he ridicules as a modern vassal state that takes its cues from Washington. Not only does Mr. Kim expect a bigger nuclear arsenal ​to help cement his domestic leadership, but he also seems to believe it will increase his bargaining power, should negotiations with the United States pick up again.

​After ​multiple rounds of ​failed ​talks and more recent invitations to spin them up again that went unanswered, ​Washington has become increasingly skeptical that serious ​​negotiations​ with Pyongyang​ remain possible, leaving North Korea more determined than ever to demand its ​attention​.

Washington, Seoul and Tokyo say North Korea may ​conduct a nuclear weapons test, its seventh, at any time. If it does, Washington and its allies may find their hands tied in seeking to impose penalties.

This month, the U.N. Security Council was unable to push through new sanctions against the North in response to its recent missile tests, which violated U.N. resolutions. China and Russia, two veto-wielding powers on the council, objected to the Washington-led proposal.

Playing one superpower against another is ​​a game North Korea knows well. When Mr. Kim began his diplomacy with President Donald J. Trump in 2018​, he hedged his bet by mee​ting with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, first. Mr. Xi, whose relationship with Mr. Kim until then had looked patchy at times, was eager to​ keep the North as a buffer between China and American military installations in South Korea​. As relations between Washington ​and Beijing deteriorate, Mr. Xi appears more eager than ever to keep Pyongyang in his orbit.

Mr. Kim’s unprecedented diplomatic dalliance with Mr. Trump helped the young leader reassert his country’s geopolitical value ​to ​China.​ ​Mr. Xi ​visited Pyongyang in 2019, after the Trump-Kim talks collapsed, and said he would help address North Korea’s security and economic concerns “to the best of my ability.”​ When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan in August, North Korea returned China’s favor by calling the visit an “impudent interference​” in Beijing’s “internal affairs​.”

Mr. Kim also saw an advantage in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and has been aligning his country more closely with Moscow. North Korea is one of the few nations to officially back the invasion. This ​​month, Washington accused the North of covertly shipping artillery shells to Russia to aid in its war effort. (Pyongyang and Moscow have both denied this.) Both ​Mr. Kim and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin have recently threatened to use nuclear weapons if they felt their country at risk.

While the North’s ​record-breaking provocations this year may suggest a bolder, more powerful Mr. Kim, some analysts say the burst of missile launches — as well as the decision to scramble the North’s decrepit, Soviet-era military aircraft — ​may reflect growing anxiety in the country. “​Kim Jong-un cannot afford a costly, protracted confrontation with Washington,” ​said Park Won-gon, a North Korea expert at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.​ “So he is mobilizing everything he has got to achieve a quick breakthrough​. What we see is a familiar pattern of North Korea resorting to brinkmanship​.”

​Mr.​ Kim’s ultimate goal, some analysts say, is to have his country recognized as a credible nuclear power and to engage Washington in arms reduction talks, hoping to trade away only part of his nuclear arsenal in return for sanctions relief. North Korea has been testing new missiles in recent years, Mr. Kim probably thinking that an expanded arsenal will increase his leverage at the bargaining table.

North Korea has said it can hit the United States with a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles. But analysts have questioned that claim, as the country has never flown its missiles for their full intercontinental ranges, nor has it demonstrated that its missiles can survive the violent re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere after soaring into space.

Still, Mr. Kim’s determination to expand his country’s arsenal has deepened fears that North Korean nuclear technology could end up in the hands of American adversaries, or prompt South Korea to consider going nuclear. (Seoul officially denies any intention to build nuclear weapons of its own.)

The United States reaffirmed its commitment to defend South Korea by strengthening the two countries’ joint military exercises this year after the drills had been scaled back by Mr. Trump and hobbled by the pandemic. The North has used the return of those exercises as an excuse to ​test as many weapons as possible.​

S​ince 2019, the country has tested an array of new, mostly short-range missiles, some designed to fly at hypersonic speeds or to maneuver during flight. They have been launched at random hours and from various locations — including trains and an underwater silo — to make them harder to intercept.

I​f the North Koreans resume nuclear tests, they may test small, lighter “tactical” nuclear warheads that the country plans to mount on its newer, short-range missiles, increasing the threat against American allies in the region​, South Korean defense officials say​.

Testing them is not only a political matter, but a technical one. “They must be technically prepared,” said Shin Beom-chul, a vice defense minister of South Korea​, in a television interview broadcast last month. “It ​may not be a one-time test. North Korea may conduct two or three tests in a row.”

nytimes.com · by Choe Sang-Hun · November 13, 2022



2. N. Korea unresponsive to S. Korea's bid to return body of presumed N. Korean


Well, at least the north's duty officer appears to be answering the phone.


N. Korea unresponsive to S. Korea's bid to return body of presumed N. Korean | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · November 14, 2022

SEOUL, Nov. 14 (Yonhap) -- North Korea remains unresponsive to South Korea's move to send back the body of a presumed North Korean woman who was found near a border river in July, according to Seoul's unification ministry Monday.

At the 9 a.m. daily opening call via the inter-Korean liaison hotline, the North did not make any comment on the South's move to return the body Thursday through the truce village of Panmunjom, the ministry said.

"As we deemed our intent as being delivered to North Korea, we will wait for the North's response until Nov. 17," the ministry's spokesperson Cho Choong-hoon said at a press briefing.

The ministry attempted Friday to send a formal message to the North of its plan to send back the body, which was discovered near the Imjin River on July 23. But Pyongyang has not responded since then.

The woman was wearing a badge showing the portraits of North Korea's late founder Kim Il-sung and former leader Kim Jong-il when her body was found, the ministry said.


sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · November 14, 2022


3. Former special counsel indicted for alleged graft


South Korean domestic politics,


(LEAD) Former special counsel indicted for alleged graft | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · November 14, 2022

(ATTN: ADDS details in last 3 paras; RECASTS lead para)

SEOUL, Nov. 14 (Yonhap) -- Prosecutors on Monday indicted a former special counsel, who was responsible for investigating a corruption scandal involving former President Park Geun-hye, on charges of violating an anti-corruption law.

Former special counsel Park Young-soo has been under investigation following allegations that he accepted a Porsche rental car and seafood from a man who claimed to be a fisheries businessman.

The man who claimed to be a fisheries businessman was also indicted, according to the Seoul Central District Prosecutors Office.

Park had investigated the scandal surrounding the former president for over four years.

The indictment paved the way for the former special counsel to undergo trial on the charge.

Park was suspected of accepting the car with a rental fee of 2.5 million won (US$1,885) and seafood worth 860,000 won in 2020.

The anti-corruption law bans public servants from receiving favors worth more than 3 million won per fiscal year.


kdh@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · November 14, 2022


4. US to expand strategic asset deployment to counter N.K.’s provocations


The questions I have received from journalists is whether this means strategic assets will be permanently stationed on the peninsula. My response is that I do not think so. I think it will continue to be a rotational presence and I think the US side may be providing the ROK military with the list of assets that are apportioned to support the deterrence and defense in Korea to help with strategic reassurance but we will not permanently station strategic assets on the peninsula.


But we should note that we cannot deter north Korean provocations. We must deter war, a nuclear attack by north Korea, and a resumption of hostilities. "Provocations" (e.g, missile and nuclear tests, et al.) will continue because Kim must continue to advance his military capabilities and such tests are often "dual use" and also support political warfare and blackmail diplomacy.

US to expand strategic asset deployment to counter N.K.’s provocations

donga.com

Posted November. 14, 2022 07:55,

Updated November. 14, 2022 07:55

US to expand strategic asset deployment to counter N.K.’s provocations. November. 14, 2022 07:55. by Kyu-Jin Shin newjin@donga.com.

‘Military and security presence’ mentioned by the White House means the practical strengthening of U.S. forces stationed in Korea, going beyond the expansion of military drills between South Korea and the U.S. and among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan. Accordingly, some watchers say the Joe Biden administration could increase the operational combat forces of the US troops stationed in South Korea and Japan through the expansion of rotational deployment of U.S. troops by going beyond the deployment of American strategic assets in the event the North conducts a seventh nuclear test.


When the Biden administration deployed additional U.S. troops to the Eastern Frontlines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the wake of the Ukraine War, Washington used the expression‎ ‘reinforcement of military presence.’ Seoul, however, has some doubt over whether the U.S. will immediately expand troops stationed in South Korea. “It will not be an expansion of U.S. troops, and we believe Washington here mentioned more specific measures in connection with the deployment of strategic assets,” an official at the South Korean presidential office said on Saturday.


Washington’s purported measures to beef up military forces in the region that are discussed before others include a significant increase in the frequency of mobilization of strategic assets, including B-52 strategic bombers and nuclear-powered submarines capable of mounting nuclear warheads. Earlier, South Korea and the U.S. agreed to expand the frequency and intensity of strategic asset deployment to generate an effect on par with their ‘constant deployment’ at the 54th Security Consultative Meeting. “After the leaders of South Korea and the US agreed in large part to expand the rotational deployment of strategic assets in their May summit, the military authorities of the two countries are increasingly going into details about follow-up measures,” a South Korean government source said.


In addition to increasing the scale and frequency of joint military drills between South Korea and the U.S. and among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, watchers say Washington will take steps to expand operational forces of the U.S. military stationed in South Korea and Japan through, among others, rotational deployment of U.S. troops. In its National Defense Strategy Report released last month, the U.S. defense department said, “We will continue major infrastructure investment in the Indo-Pacific region,” adding, “We will beef up defensive military forces through continued investment in air defense and missile defense systems in South Korea, Japan and Australia, and joint military drills with them.”


The U.S. recently deployed MQ-9 Reaper strike drones in Japan and is currently upgrading F-15 fighter jets deployed in Japan’s Kadena Airbase with F-22 stealth jets, considered the most advanced in the world. Some analysts say Washington could strengthen missile defense systems in the Indo-Pacific region, including deployment of additional terminal high-altitude aerial defense systems (THADD).

한국어

donga.com


5. Yoon, Biden, Kishida agree to real-time intel sharing



​A good step forward for bilateral cooperation.


Monday

November 14, 2022

 dictionary + A - A 

Yoon, Biden, Kishida agree to real-time intel sharing

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/11/14/national/diplomacy/Korea-Japan-United-States/20221114154250187.html


Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, right, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands before a bilateral summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia on Sunday. [YONHAP]

 

The leaders of South Korea, Japan and the United States agreed to share information about North Korean missiles in Cambodia Sunday.  

 

President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden released a statement after their second trilateral summit, which lasted around 15 minutes, on the sidelines of Asean meetings in Phnom Penh. 

 

The leaders said they "intend to share DPRK missile warning data in real time to improve each country's ability to detect and assess the threat posed by incoming missiles, a major step for deterrence, peace and stability," according to their statement, referring to acronym for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.


 

Analysts said security cooperation seemed to be getting back on track after a General Security of Military Information Agreement (Gsomia), a bilateral intelligence-sharing pact between Seoul and Tokyo, was nearly scrapped in 2019. 

 

The Gsomia was established in 2016 and renewed annually through 2018. 

 

In August 2019, the Moon Jae-in administration announced its decision to terminate the Gsomia in response to Japanese restrictions on exports to Korea of industrial materials needed to make microchips and displays and removal of Seoul from a so-called white list of preferred trading partners. Japan's export curbs were seen as retaliation for Supreme Court rulings in Korea in 2018 ordering Japanese companies to compensate Korean forced laborers during World War II. 

 

In November 2019, the Moon government decided to conditionally extend the bilateral pact after pressure by Washington. 

 

However, relations between Seoul and Tokyo kept deteriorating, which had an impact on three-way security cooperation.

 

Since it took power in May, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has tried to improve relations with Japan and normalizing security cooperation, a message conveyed by Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken during their talks in Washington on June 13.

 

Real time sharing of missile information appears to go beyond Gsomia, which allows South Korean and Japanese military authorities to share information when requested by the other side. Defense officials say intelligence sharing through Gsomia can't be considered real time. 

 

The three countries have shared real-time information on the detecting and tracking of North Korean ballistic missiles through Aegis destroyers during missile defense training but they haven't shared such information in real time during peacetime.

 

However, it is unclear how the three countries will share real-time intelligence on North Korea's missiles. Military sources point out that the United States will likely be the key to information sharing, and that while there are various systems in place for South Korea and the United States to share information in real time down to operational units, there is no such network with Japan. 

 

Col. Moon Hong-sik, the Defense Ministry's deputy spokesman, told reporters in a briefing in Seoul Monday that "when a broad framework is agreed upon between leaders, it is a normal procedure for the ministries in charge to develop specific measures through detailed discussions." 

 

Yoon, Biden and Kishida held their first trilateral summit on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Madrid on June 29. 

 

During their meeting Sunday, Biden said in opening remarks that South Korea and Japan "are both critical allies of the United States" and that they engage in the trilateral cooperation "out of a shared concern for the nuclear and missile threats North Korea poses to our people." 

 

"The current developments on the Korean Peninsula and in the region and beyond require the strongest level of our trilateral coordination," said Yoon in his remarks. 

 

According to the joint statement, Biden agreed to strengthen extended deterrence to Seoul and Tokyo and stressed that U.S. commitment to defend South Korea and Japan is "ironclad and backed by the full range of capabilities, including nuclear." 

 

The three leaders "strongly condemned" North Korea's recent ballistic missile launches and pledged to "coordinate sanctions" while leaving open offers for dialogue. 

 

Biden and Kishida expressed support for Yoon's "audacious initiative," a plan to help North Korea's economy provided Pyongyang takes steps toward denuclearization.

 

The three leaders said they "strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in waters of the Indo-Pacific, including through unlawful maritime claims, militarization of reclaimed features, and coercive activities," without mentioning China by name. They then stressed the "importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait." 

 

They also highlighted growing regional partnership, including support for Asean, and emphasized the importance of trilateral cooperation to enhance economic security and prosperity throughout the Indo-Pacific. 

 

Commending the "unprecedented level of trilateral coordination," they said they will align their "collective efforts in pursuit of a free and open Indo-Pacific that is inclusive, resilient, and secure."

 

After the trilateral talks, Yoon and Kishida held a bilateral summit which lasted 45 minutes and discussed cooperation on North Korea. 

 

They condemned the North's recent missile threats as a "serious provocation that threatens the peace and security of not only the Korean Peninsula but Northeast Asia and the international community," according to the presidential office in a statement. 

 

The two leaders said that they will "continue consultations for an early resolution of pending issues between the two countries."

 

The press statement did not elaborate further on how the two sides will overcome their historical disputes stemming from Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule such as compensation for forced labor victims. 

 

They also welcomed the "recent rapid recovery of people-to-people exchanges between the two countries."  

 

Kishida expressed his condolences for the Itaewon crowd crush on Oct. 29. Yoon expressed his condolences for two Japanese victims of the tragedy. 

 


Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, left, and U.S. President Joe Biden shake hands ahead of their bilateral summit at a hotel in Phnom Penh Sunday. [YONHAP]

Earlier Sunday, Yoon held a bilateral summit with Biden which lasted around 50 minutes, and the two leaders discussed major economic matters, the North Korea nuclear problem, a combined defense posture and other regional issues. 

 

The presidential office said that Yoon noted that the bilateral consultation channel on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is being operated closely after Biden's personal letter on the issue last month.

 

Biden said that Korean companies are contributing greatly to the U.S. economy in areas such as automobiles and electric batteries, and said that implementation of the IRA is expected to take this into consideration, said Yoon's office. 

 

Yoon explained his Indo-Pacific strategy and said South Korea plans to formally partake in the Partners in the Blue Pacific initiative launched by the United States and other countries to support the Pacific region. 

 

The two presidents also "reaffirmed that if North Korea uses any form of nuclear weapons, South Korea and the United States will respond with overwhelming force using all available means."

 

The White House in its statement Sunday also made mention of the IRA. 

 

It said that Biden "laid out the ambitious U.S. agenda to combat the climate crisis through historic investments in green technology facilitated by the Inflation Reduction Act" and that the two leaders discussed the important role U.S. and South Korean companies will play to meet "shared climate goals."

 

"The three leaders did coordinate on a joint response in the event that there would be a seventh nuclear test by the DPRK," National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters en route to Bali Sunday. "And they tasked their teams to work out the elements of that response in real detail." 

 

He said the response is "in the stage of just being refined," and that "you can expect a trilateral response, well-coordinated, among the three countries in the event that there is such a test." 

 

Yoon and Biden held their first summit in May in Seoul. They had brief encounters during their overlapping trips to Britain for Queen Elizabeth II's funeral and the UN General Assembly in New York in September. However, a second bilateral summit didn't come about. 

 

Yoon and Kishida held their first informal bilateral talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September.


BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]


6. History Proves China Will Never Help Biden on North Korea


 China will not help the ROK and US solve their security problem with north Korea.


Excerpts:


Biden may believe he knows Xi and can work with the Chinese leader, but history matters. Xi looks down on democrats. Whether Democrats or Republicans hold the White House, he believes he can cheat with impunity. Not only does pride mean no U.S. president and his national security team would admit their own naiveté, but litigating deceit would extend past the end of the U.S. president’s term, at which point it would be Groundhog Day as the new president tried to reset relations with a blank slate.

And, while some surrounding Biden may try to draw a redline, here too precedent matters. China sees the U.S. abandonment of Afghanistan and Biden’s talk of ending “forever wars” as a sign the United States no longer has the stamina to run a 100-day marathon let alone a 100-year one. That Biden subsequently entertained ending the Korean War, a move that would mean the immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula, undercuts any effort by Biden to puff his chest out now.

For the past two years, Xi has played Biden like a fiddle. Xi’s team, meanwhile, views Biden’s team as incompetent naïfs. If Biden is to break that dynamic, it is time to speak softly, treat Xi with the disdain he deserves, and show through the Pentagon budget, unabashed support for Taiwan, and prolonged Carrier Strike Group deployments toward the Korean Peninsula and Japan that the United States means business.


History Proves China Will Never Help Biden on North Korea

19fortyfive.com · by Michael Rubin · November 13, 2022

Xi is Already Playing Biden like a Fiddle on North Korea: Just weeks after President Joe Biden took his oath of office, he dispatched Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Anchorage to meet State Councilor Wang Yi and Chinese Communist Party foreign affairs chief Yang Jiechi. It was an unmitigated disaster. Wang and Yang were a decade older than Blinken and almost a quarter century on Sullivan, and both Chinese officials had occupied their portfolios for years. Both Chinese functionaries immediately put their neophyte American counterparts on the defensive with over-the-top criticism. It was a choreographed move that harkened back to pre-Kissinger outreach in Warsaw and Geneva. Ambassador Ural Alexis Johnson, who represented Washington at some of these talks in the 1950s, later concluded, “Washington was slow to recognize either [Chinese Premier] Zhao Enlai’s brilliance or his game plan. If we had, we might have been able to avoid some of the difficulties of the next three decades.”

Certainly, Chinese President Xi Jinping, who looks to the late Communist Chinese Revolutionary Mao Zedong for inspiration, has a game plan but while Xi pursues a 100-year marathon to replace the liberal order with China-dominated hegemony, Blinken and Sullivan continue to act as if they have a tabula rasa upon which to construct policy.

The North Korea Challenge

The failure to appreciate history is evident in the belief by Biden’s team that they can use the Xi-Biden meeting to win Chinese assistance to restore order to the Korean Peninsula, where North Korean leader Kim Jong-un again launches missiles over Japan and threatens new nuclear tests.

The problem is that both Biden’s team and his predecessors have repeatedly tried to leverage Beijing against Pyongyang, always without success. In March 2021, for example, Blinken argued, “China has a critical role to play in working to convince North Korea to pursue denuclearization. China has a unique relationship with North Korea. Virtually all of North Korea’s economic relationships, its trade go – are with or go through China, so it has tremendous influence. And I think it has a shared interest in making sure that we do something about North Korea’s nuclear program and about the increasingly dangerous ballistic missile program.”

In Dancing with the Devil, my history of past U.S. diplomacy with North Korea and other rogue states, I outline a now nearly 40-year history of attempts to work through Beijing to address North Korea’s provocations.

Chinese officials began acting as a diplomatic intermediary for North Korea during the Reagan administration when Chinese diplomats passed the American embassy in Beijing a message from their North Korean colleagues seeking tripartite talks. Reagan’s State Department was interested, but felt used after, just a day later, North Korean agents sought to assassinate President Chun Doo Hwan and much of his cabinet during their visit to Burma.

In January 1984, Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang again sought to bring the United States and North Korea together for tripartite talks. Beijing was no more sincere than before; North Korea’s Chinese patrons simply wanted to help Kim Il-sung to escape consequence for his attempt to decapitate the entire South Korean government.

While some in the State Department grasped at the notion Beijing might nevertheless nudge Pyongyang toward responsibility, reality showed this again to be naïve: In November 1987, two North Korean agents bombed Korean Air flight 858 killing 115, an attempt to disrupt the shine Seoul would receive for hosting the Olympics.

It was also during the Reagan administration that North Korea’s nuclear ambitions became apparent. Not only was the United States aware of the construction of a nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, about 60 miles north of Pyongyang, but spy satellites subsequently detected craters suggesting North Korea was experimenting with detonators to use with nuclear weapons. Reagan kept U.S. concerns secret, but his successor, George H.W. Bush, who had once been America’s top diplomat in Beijing, decided to put diplomacy front and center. Ultimately, this led to the signing of the North-South Denuclearization Declaration, in which both Koreas foreswore plutonium reprocessing and uranium enrichment and agreed not to test, manufacture, produce, possess, deploy, or use nuclear weapons. Baker was self-congratulatory. “American diplomacy [was] directly responsible for an end to six years of intransigence by the North,” he wrote in his memoirs.

While Baker congratulated himself, Beijing realized it could get more out of the Americans by keeping conflict alive. After North Korea defied the Denuclearization Deal, President Bill Clinton sought to leverage Beijing’s influence on Pyongyang. China’s cooperation came at a price: diluting Security Council’s condemnation to the point of irrelevancy and, subsequently, Security Council inaction after North Korea announced that it would remove irradiated fuel rods from Yongbyon, a move that would enable North Korea to separate plutonium. Meanwhile, Clinton sought separately to reward Beijing. He waived missile-proliferation sanctions on China. Chinese companies promptly sold sensitive technology to Iran.

As the 1994 Agreed Framework came apart at the seams, China’s rulers again sought to milk the United States in exchange a Chinese promise to keep North Korea under control. This time it was George W. Bush’s turn. Secretary of State Colin Powell sought to trade “actions for actions” by giving Pyongyang greater aid in exchange for keeping its reactor offline. Critics such as John Bolton suggested such a formula would incentivize bad behavior, but the National Security Council shut him down. China was now onboard, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice claimed. It was wishful thinking for which the entire region continues to pay the price.

History and Reality Collide

Biden may believe he knows Xi and can work with the Chinese leader, but history matters. Xi looks down on democrats. Whether Democrats or Republicans hold the White House, he believes he can cheat with impunity. Not only does pride mean no U.S. president and his national security team would admit their own naiveté, but litigating deceit would extend past the end of the U.S. president’s term, at which point it would be Groundhog Day as the new president tried to reset relations with a blank slate.

And, while some surrounding Biden may try to draw a redline, here too precedent matters. China sees the U.S. abandonment of Afghanistan and Biden’s talk of ending “forever wars” as a sign the United States no longer has the stamina to run a 100-day marathon let alone a 100-year one. That Biden subsequently entertained ending the Korean War, a move that would mean the immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula, undercuts any effort by Biden to puff his chest out now.

General view during the test firing of what state media report is a North Korean “new type” of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in this undated photo released on March 24, 2022 by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERS

For the past two years, Xi has played Biden like a fiddle. Xi’s team, meanwhile, views Biden’s team as incompetent naïfs. If Biden is to break that dynamic, it is time to speak softly, treat Xi with the disdain he deserves, and show through the Pentagon budget, unabashed support for Taiwan, and prolonged Carrier Strike Group deployments toward the Korean Peninsula and Japan that the United States means business.

Author Biography: Dr. Michael Rubin, a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre-and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics, including “Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?” (AEI Press, 2019); “Kurdistan Rising” (AEI Press, 2016); “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes” (Encounter Books, 2014); and “Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos” (Palgrave, 2005). Dr. Rubin has a PhD and an MA in history from Yale University, where he also obtained a BS in biology.

19fortyfive.com · by Michael Rubin · November 13, 2022



7. Hong Kong protest anthem played at Rugby Sevens series in Korea

Rugby players are natural resisters. 


Twitter message from an escapee from north Korea in the UK:


Jihyun Park
South Korea played Hong Kong protestors song instead of China at the Incheon Rugby Tournament, of course it was a mistake, but
Hong Kongers all over the world are sending their gratitude to Korea.




Hong Kong protest anthem played at Rugby Sevens series in Korea

The Korea Times · November 14, 2022

A screenshot of a video showing the Hong Kong rugby team at the Asia Rugby Sevens Series on Sunday listening to the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement protest anthem, "Glory to Hong Kong" instead of the Chinese national anthem. Screenshot from a video uploaded on Twitter.


By Park Ji-won


HONG KONG ― The Korea Rugby Union, the local operator of the second leg of the Asia Rugby Sevens Series held in Korea between Nov. 12 and 13, apologized for playing "Glory to Hong Kong," a protest anthem widely sung during the 2019-2020 pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, instead of the Chinese national anthem, "March of the Volunteers," during the men's final round between Hong Kong and Korea held in Incheon, Korea on Sunday.


The Hong Kong government chastised Asia Rugby Monday morning about what happened and asked for an "in-depth investigation." However, the remarks of the Korean operator contradict those of the Hong Kong government.


Stressing that playing the Hong Kong pro-democracy protest anthem was "simply a mistake" by the Korea Rugby Union and that the Korean union immediately announced the mistake in the stadium and delivered an official apology to the Chinese and Hong Kong teams, a public relations representative from the Korean organization told The Korea Times Monday that "We ask each country to submit national anthems to play, but failed to get one (from the Hong Kong team)."

The person added that "our staff saved 'the Hong Kong national anthem' listed on the top of a search engine in the file folder named, 'Hong Kong.'"


The person continued that the Korea Rugby Union was later informed by Asia Rugby that the organization should play China's national anthem for the Hong Kong team but failed to delete the mistakenly saved file and delivered it to the broadcasting team. The official added that a staff member of the broadcasting team played the song in the file when Hong Kong made it to the final.


Also, the person said that the organizer then played the Chinese national anthem for the Hong Kong team during the award ceremony, after Hong Kong won the final.


An image showing Hong Kong winning the second leg of the men's Asia Rugby Sevens Series / Courtesy of Asia Rugby's Facebook page


However, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government said that the Hong Kong team had submitted the anthem file to the local operator.


In a Monday press release titled, "HKSAR Government strongly deplores and opposes playing of the wrong national anthem at the Asian Rugby Seven Series," the release said, "Rugby Asia also confirmed that the recording of the National Anthem submitted by the coach of the Hong Kong Team was the correct one."

The HKSAR said citing a government spokesman that "The National Anthem is a symbol of our country. The organizer of the tournament has a duty to ensure that the National Anthem receives the respect it warranted."


"We have already written to the Hong Kong Rugby Union last evening demanding them to deal with this matter seriously, launch a full and in-depth investigation and submit a detailed report, and convey our strong objection to Asia Rugby, who is the organizer of the Series."


The Korea Times asked for further explanation about the contradictory remarks on the anthem between the Korean union and the Hong Kong government, but the Korean union hasn't answered yet.


The streaming video uploaded on YouTube for the Sunday competitions has become private due to the release of the wrong anthem, according to officials.

The song played during the final has been widely embraced as an anthem for the anti-government protesters in Hong Kong for its lyrics, including "freedom" and "liberate our Hong Kong."



A post on Instagram by Cafe de JarGor reads, "Visit our restaurant. If you show your Korean passport, you can get 50 percent discount on your bill. Screenshot from InstagramHong Kong media outlets continue to release related news about the issue on TV and in newspapers. The South China Morning Post printed the headline, "Hong Kong demands full investigation after 2019 protest song played at Korean rugby tournament instead of national anthem," and wrote, "The incident drew the ire of Hong Kong's sports sector and politicians, who were unconvinced it was an 'unintentional mistake.'"


Some pro-democracy restaurants in Hong Kong made the issue into a promotional event, giving those with Korean passports in Hong Kong discounts and some coupons for what happened.


Cafe de JarGor, a local food restaurant chain in Hong Kong that is known to support the anti-government movement and is vocal about anti-government issues, posted on Instagram that they will give a 50 percent discount to Korean passport holders that visit its restaurants for dinner today with the hashtag, "#thankyou" in Korean.


Meanwhile, Asia Rugby released a statement later on Monday saying it and the Korea Rugby Union apologized for mistakenly playing the wrong anthem and edited the match video in every platform with the Chinese anthem.


It said "Asia Rugby and Korea Rugby Union would like to sincerely apologies to the Hong Kong Rugby Union, the Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) and the Government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) for this incident. The incident happened due to a simple human error from a junior member of the local organizing committee, playing a song downloaded from the internet instead of the correct anthem."


"Asia Rugby took the match footage off the air immediately and replaced it with the correct anthem on our social media platforms."



The Korea Times · November 14, 2022


8. US midterm results to sideline North Korea issue: experts


True. The only way Kim will become a "main interest" is if he attacks the South.


Excerpts:


His policy priority will likely remain the same even if North Korea conducts its seventh nuclear weapons test, according to Jeong. Intelligence reports indicate that the North is ready for its first such test since 2017.​
"If that happens, it will certainly draw international attention and criticism, but probably not for a long time," he said. "Unless the North does anything drastic such as military attacks on South Korea, North Korea won't be the main interest of U.S. politicians at least for the next two years."

At Sunday's trilateral summit in Phnom Penh, the Cambodian capital, with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts ― Yoon Suk-yeol and Fumio Kishida ― Biden reaffirmed the U.S.' extended deterrence protection of the two allies while suggesting no policy changes regarding North Korea.



US midterm results to sideline North Korea issue: experts

The Korea Times · November 14, 2022

U.S. President Joe Biden looks on as he holds a trilateral meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Nov. 13. Experts say the U.S. midterm election results will push Biden to focus on domestic affairs for the next two years. Reuters-Yonhap 


War in Ukraine, China's growing clout will likely dominate Biden's foreign policy agenda


By Jung Min-ho


The midterm election results will increase pressure on U.S. politicians, particularly President Joe Biden, to focus on issues that matter to voters. This means even less attention from Washington to North Korea's growing threats, let alone any serious diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation, according to experts.


The final outcome is still unclear as votes continue to be counted. As of Monday (local time), the Democrats will retain their Senate majority, while Republicans (GOP) are on track to take back control of the House.​

"To be frank, anything Korea-related is furthest from lawmakers' minds at the moment as the fate of Congress still hangs in the balance. Assuming the GOP takes the House … issues like inflation, the economy and domestic issues will take center stage," said Harry Kazianis, head of Rogue States Project, a U.S. think tank. "After that, moving to foreign policy, Ukraine will dominate the discussion, [including] how much to fund [the country for the war]. After that, China will take what little bandwidth is left. Sadly, unless Kim Jong-un starts World War III, Korea just won't be an issue for this Congress ― even as North Korea builds more and more nuclear weapons that could kill millions of people in minutes."


Former U.S. President Donald Trump was seeking to secure a big deal with the North Korean leader over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program while in office. But under Biden, a career politician who has spent half a century in Washington, such an attempt would not be possible, especially given the circumstances, he noted.


"I see no way that Biden could negotiate with North Korea … Biden knows that anything he does that looks like a concession will be used by his political enemies as a weapon to hurt him politically. So that means there will be no grand bargain on North Korea's nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future," Kazianis said. "Biden would have to expend huge amounts of political capital to get anything done, and he likely sees no reason to do so as North Korea is not an issue Americans vote on ― and concessions will only hurt him."


In this file photo taken on March 1, 2019, North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un attends a welcoming ceremony and reviews an honor guard at the Presidential Palace in Hanoi, Vietnam. AFP-Yonhap 


Given the election results, neither party can claim a clear victory, and the Biden administration will likely focus on tackling inflation and crime ― the issues that almost cost the ruling party Senate control, said Jeong Han-bum, an international relations professor at Korea National Defense University.


"State primaries and caucuses begin a year before the presidential election in 2024, Biden does not have much time and he knows it," Jeong said. "The issues that can win votes that day will be on his key agenda, if not only agenda."​'

Abortion rights and the crisis in democracy were among the main messages the Democratic Party promoted to voters during the campaign period. To some extent, the strategy worked and prompted anti-Trump voters to cast their ballots. But Jeong believes such messages will prove to be less effective in a matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the emerging rival to Trump in the Republican Party, which will likely affect Biden further when it comes to important political decisions.


His policy priority will likely remain the same even if North Korea conducts its seventh nuclear weapons test, according to Jeong. Intelligence reports indicate that the North is ready for its first such test since 2017.​

"If that happens, it will certainly draw international attention and criticism, but probably not for a long time," he said. "Unless the North does anything drastic such as military attacks on South Korea, North Korea won't be the main interest of U.S. politicians at least for the next two years."


At Sunday's trilateral summit in Phnom Penh, the Cambodian capital, with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts ― Yoon Suk-yeol and Fumio Kishida ― Biden reaffirmed the U.S.' extended deterrence protection of the two allies while suggesting no policy changes regarding North Korea.

The Korea Times · November 14, 2022



9.  South and North Korea at Risk of New Crisis


Borth north and South have been able to manage these in the past.


But we must not make concessions. If we do we can expect Kim to double down on political warfare and blackmail diplomacy while he continues to develop advanced war fighting capabilities.


Excerpt:


The invasion of Ukraine, which does not possess nuclear weapons, by nuclear-armed Russia would likely have offered further stimulus for Pyongyang to strengthen its national defense capabilities, and unless the United States decides to make significant concessions to North Korea, Kim will continue its current nuclear weapons policy. In South Korea, Yoon’s approval rating has not only languished on inflation and poor personnel management, his government is finding it difficult to get anything done since it will be a minority ruling party until the general election in April 2024. Seoul cannot waiver in its hardline stance against North Korea, which includes responding when missiles are launched, since it needs to solidify support from domestic conservatives. Ultimately, though, this approach will only encourage further North Korean provocations.


South and North Korea at Risk of New Crisis

thediplomat.com · by ISOZAKI Atsuhito · November 14, 2022

Advertisement

Relations both between the United States and North Korea and between North and South Korea have long been at a stalemate, with the mood for dialogue that existed in 2018-2019 now entirely a thing of the past. Gone are the days when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un himself would talk about “denuclearization,” even if superficially. Today, North and South Korea are locked in an arms race.

The conservative government of President Yoon Suk-yeol was inaugurated in South Korea in May 2022. Since the start of the year, North Korea has been increasing the frequency of its missile tests, and nuclear missile development is clearly now its default course. This is based on a medium-term strategy that is a “five-year plan to develop a national defense science and weapons system,” which was adopted at the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in January 2021.

Yoon is maintaining a hardline stance on North Korea and is emphasizing the importance of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. A former prosecutor general with no parliamentary experience, Yoon’s diplomatic and security advisors are closely aligned with the earlier Lee Myung-bak administration. It follows then, that, the Seoul’s policy toward North Korea is little changed from that of the Lee administration. The “bold plan” Yoon presented in August was to provide step-by-step assistance such as food and medical infrastructure depending on the status of North Korea’s denuclearization. This was simply an “arrogant” policy reminiscent of the failures of the Lee administration. The fact remains that movement on inter-Korean relations is difficult in the absence of progress in U.S.-North Korea, as is evident from the failures of inter-Korean dialogue under the Moon Jae-in administration.

Former South Korean President Lee Myung-bak came to power in 2008 advocating “Vision 3000: Denuclearization and Openness,” which aimed to help North Korea reach USD3,000 per capita income within 10 years if it opened up and adopted denuclearization. Hopes for this policy ended in 2010 when North Korea sank the ROKS Cheonan and shelled Yeonpyeong, two acts that cost South Korean lives. Both of these provocations took place when Kim Jong-il was leader, but there have been persistent suggestions that Kim Jong-un, who had just been named successor, was the one who actually ordered them.

Lee’s failure to hold an Inter-Korean summit should not be repeated. Yet for now, the possibility of North Korea attempting once again to strike South Korea directly cannot be dismissed. After all, the means of retaliation that the United States and South Korea have at their disposal against North Korea, a de facto nuclear power, are limited.

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North Korea is focusing on developing short-range missiles, including hypersonic missiles that are difficult to intercept because signs of their impending launch are hard to detect. There is no doubt that if and when negotiations with the United States resume, the first thing that Washington will demand to be dismantled will be any ICBMs that can reach the U.S. mainland. Whether this happens after the Biden administration, as Pyongyang assumes, the North Koreans have determined that they should focus on preparing for actual combat by investing in the development of missiles that can reach U.S. forces in South Korea, Japan, and Guam.

Speaking at the military parade held in Pyongyang earlier this year to mark the anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army, Kim Jong-un personally reversed his previous claim that nuclear weapons are a “deterrence,” saying that they have a “second mission,” hinting at the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Earlier, in October last year, Kim had said that “our main enemy is war itself, not any particular state or power, such as South Korea or the United States.” Belying those words, North Korea has adopted a hostile posture toward the United States and even South Korea since the start of the year. Kim has declared South Korea’s deepening cooperation on security with the United States and Japan as a “provocation.” These hardline remarks have been widely reported in North Korea through the Rodong Sinmun and Korean Central Television, as a signal to the North Korean people not to expect diplomatic progress in the near future.

The invasion of Ukraine, which does not possess nuclear weapons, by nuclear-armed Russia would likely have offered further stimulus for Pyongyang to strengthen its national defense capabilities, and unless the United States decides to make significant concessions to North Korea, Kim will continue its current nuclear weapons policy. In South Korea, Yoon’s approval rating has not only languished on inflation and poor personnel management, his government is finding it difficult to get anything done since it will be a minority ruling party until the general election in April 2024. Seoul cannot waiver in its hardline stance against North Korea, which includes responding when missiles are launched, since it needs to solidify support from domestic conservatives. Ultimately, though, this approach will only encourage further North Korean provocations.

ISOZAKI Atsuhito is a professor at Keio University.

thediplomat.com · by ISOZAKI Atsuhito · November 14, 2022


10. Strengthened deterrence (ROK-Japan - US)


Some more good news.


Conclusion:


The trilateral summit has significant implications as it came at a time when North Korea is ready to conduct its seventh nuclear test. The three leaders' agreement to give a resolute response to the North's incessant provocations will serve as a warning against North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's reckless move toward nuclear armament.



Strengthened deterrence

The Korea Times · November 14, 2022

Leaders agree to three-way security cooperation


The leaders of South Korea, the United States and Japan have agreed to strengthen security cooperation to deter North Korea's missile and nuclear threats. In a trilateral summit held in Phnom Penh on Sunday, they also vowed to deliver a "strong and resolute" response if North Korea conducts its seventh nuclear test.

Wrapping up the summit, the leaders issued a joint statement announcing the "unprecedented level of trilateral cooperation" they had achieved and vowing to further fortify their security ties. U.S. President Joe Biden underlined the U.S.' "ironclad" commitment to defend South Korea and Japan. "Japan and the Republic of Korea are both critical allies of the United States," Biden said after meeting with President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.


"The three leaders agreed to share information on the North's missile launches in real time and improve each country's ability to detect and assess the threat posed by incoming missiles, a major step for deterrence, peace and stability," the statement reads. The leaders also agreed on the need to set up a three-way economic and security consultative body. It is important for the three countries to step up cooperation amid growing economic uncertainties due to diverse factors such as possible global supply chain disruptions of key products like semiconductors.


In this vein, the U.S. needs to find a solution to the problems caused by its Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which discriminates against Korean-made electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries. The new legislation is facing criticism for stripping purchasers of EVs manufactured outside North America of a tax credit worth up to $7,500. Fortunately, Biden said his administration will take measures with respect to Korean companies which he said have contributed greatly to the U.S. economy.


"In consideration of these points, measures to implement the IRA should be discussed," the presidential office quoted Biden as having told Yoon during the summit. As the just-ended U.S. midterm elections are regarded as a victory for Biden, we expect he will take bolder steps to resolve the issue in a proper way.


Biden and Yoon agreed to strengthen their combined defense posture against the North's possible military provocations. In a separate summit, Yoon and Kishida agreed to continue dialogue more briskly to find ways to tackle knotty bilateral issues such as Japan's wartime forced labor.


The Yoon-Kishida meeting is meaningful as it is an official summit, unlike their brief meeting in New York on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. We urge the two countries to make concerted efforts to put frayed bilateral ties back on track. Both sides have yet to make any breakthroughs on the forced labor issue. Now they need to resolve the matter soon by regaining mutual trust to forge a future-oriented partnership.


The trilateral summit has significant implications as it came at a time when North Korea is ready to conduct its seventh nuclear test. The three leaders' agreement to give a resolute response to the North's incessant provocations will serve as a warning against North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's reckless move toward nuclear armament.



The Korea Times · November 14, 2022


11. N. Korean authorities continue to conduct public executions of alleged criminals



There is no let up in the evil of the Kim family regime.


N. Korean authorities continue to conduct public executions of alleged criminals

Public executions are commonplace even within North Korea's military, a source told Daily NK

By Seulkee Jang - 2022.11.14 3:00pm

dailynk.com

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at an emergency consultative meeting of the politburo earlier this year. (Rodong Sinmun - News1)

North Korean authorities continue to conduct public executions of alleged criminals, Daily NK has confirmed recently.

Last year, North Korea focused on producing results to mark the 10th anniversary of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s ascent to power. This year, the country appears to be intensifying control over the population with a view to elevate loyalty to Kim and the Workers’ Party.

According to a Daily NK source in Kangwon Province on Monday, a man in his 50s — identified as Mr. A — was publicly executed before his neighbors and colleagues in the city of Wonsan.

A doctor, Mr. A responded to medicine shortages by prescribing patients with homemade penicillin and streptomycin produced with Chinese-made ingredients he had purchased. The man made a good deal of money selling these illegally manufactured drugs.

North Korea suffers from severe shortages of medicine and it is commonplace for individuals to sell homemade drugs manufactured with ingredients they purchase themselves. Others distribute smuggled, unlicensed Chinese-made drugs.

The North Korean government has strongly cracked down on the illegal manufacture or smuggling of drugs since the country launched its “maximum emergency epidemic prevention system” in May after publicly acknowledging a domestic COVID-10 outbreak for the first time.

At the time, Kim Jong Un even had some of his own household drugs sent to families in need. During an “emergency consultation meeting,” he condemned the hoarding and illegal distribution of medications. His comments led to intensified crackdowns on the illegal manufacture and distribution of drugs.

In Mr. A’s case, the doctor had been punished once before for selling illegal drugs. This time, however, he was executed for his alleged crimes.

Given the fact that the manufacture and distribution of drugs has been commonplace in North Korea, people who observed the execution expressed terror and fright. “No matter how things were in the past, you’ll now face the ultimate punishment if you don’t follow the Workers’ Party’s laws,” one said, according to the source.

SOLDIERS ALSO FACE PUBLIC EXECUTIONS FOR ALLEGED CRIMES

Public executions are commonplace even within North Korea’s military.

According to a source in North Hamgyong Province, a company commander in a brigade of the Supreme Guard Command based in Kyongsong County, North Hamgyong Province — a man in his 40s identified as Mr. B — was shot to death in front of his unit for allegedly mobilizing troops to build his personal home and for accepting bribes.

The Supreme Guard Command is tasked with special bodyguard duty for North Korea’s supreme leader and his immediate family. The brigade in question protects Kim Jong Un’s villa in Kyongsong County.

Mr. B commanded patrols along the road leading to the villa that is exclusively used by Kim and his entourage. He reportedly mobilized some of the men under his command to build his own home. The commander had also been demanding bribes — subordinates who bribed him received help in receiving business travel documents and were able to take leave when they wanted, among other illicit benefits.

A military cadre who participated in the ex-commander’s execution explained that the man had “seriously harmed the protection of the leadership,” and that “the company commander’s corruption had weakened military discipline.”

After the execution, the ex-commander’s company was completely disbanded, with new troops tasked with guarding the road to the villa, the source said.

By generating a climate of fear with its public executions, North Korea is sending a message to its people: follow the authorities’ orders, or else. North Korea’s recent series of public trials and public executions seem aimed at discipling people who have been expressing discontent over economic troubles.

“While the authorities pressed us to achieve results to mark the anniversary of the Supreme Leader’s 10th year in power last year, they’re now trying to quiet popular discontent with the regime by creating the fear that anyone can face execution if they don’t follow the Workers’ Party’s orders,” said the source.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com



12. Hackers use S. Korean internet security agency as a disguise to mount cyberattacks



The all purpose sword.


Read Mathew Ha's update here: "The Evolution of Kim Jong Un’s ‘All-Purpose Sword’" https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2022/10/28/the-evolution-of-kim-jong-uns-all-purpose-sword/


Hackers use S. Korean internet security agency as a disguise to mount cyberattacks

An analysis of the email found that it had originated at cloudhome.com, a website in Japan

By Mun Dong Hui - 2022.11.14 10:30am

dailynk.com

An image capture of the email sent to an employee of Daily NK recently. (Daily NK)

Hackers likely based in North Korea recently sent out an email about the Kakao data center fire in October. The hackers used an email address meant to deceive receivers into thinking it was from the Korea Internet & Security Agency (KISA).

On Oct. 18, Daily NK Vice President Lee Sang-yong received an email titled “Warning about cyberattacks disguised as KakaoTalk updates” that listed the KISA in the “from” field.

The email in question said: “There has been a string of cyberattacks exploiting the recent disruption of Kakao services. These cyberattacks involve spoofing Kakao in emails that urge the recipients to download malware disguised as a KakaoTalk installation file [for the PC version].

“To prevent your computer from being hacked, we recommend that you carefully verify the email address of the sender and refrain from viewing emails or attachments from unknown parties or downloading email attachments of unclear origin.”

The message urged readers to watch out for a series of cyberattacks designed to exploit the disruption of Kakao services caused by a fire at a data center in Pangyo on Oct. 15.

Daily NK has confirmed that the email was not sent by KISA. An expert analysis of the email concluded that it had been sent by hackers likely based in North Korea.

Mun Jong-hyun, the head of the ESTsecurity Security Response Center, told Daily NK that, “The IP of the sender is similar to the one used in a Kakao-based attack a few days ago. The email was likely sent by the same attackers.”

On Oct. 16, one day after the Kakao service disruption occurred, people working in the North Korea field along with several North Korean defectors were sent a phishing email entitled, “Information about urgent measures to restore Kakao services that are experiencing errors.”

At the time, experts raised the possibility that North Korea was behind the phishing email. On Oct. 17, KISA and the Ministry of Science and ICT shared this information in a press release and advised users to be cautious.

It appears that so-called smart cyberattacks designed to exploit the issue of the Kakao service disruption are still being made even after these hacking incidents were reported in the press.

A close look at the email sent to Daily NK Vice President Lee showed that the sender was “noreply@kisa.co.kr.” However, KISA’s actual domain is “@kisa.or.kr.” The domain name was tweaked in a cunning attempt to deceive receivers of the email.

The email included a number of elements designed to hoodwink receivers of the email, such as the KISA logo embedded in the text of the email, which could pass as authentic without a careful examination.

An analysis of the email found that it had originated at cloudhome.com, a website in Japan. The website itself was shut down on Oct. 31, 2020, but its server still appears to be running.

The peculiar thing, however, is that the phishing email did not contain any malware, either in links or attachments. The hackers appear to have sent this email as a test to confirm whether the receiver would open the email before launching the actual attack. In effect, hackers are resorting to more clever techniques given the fact that many users of digital devices are more aware of phishing attacks than in the past.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com



13. No Itaewon witch hunts





Monday

November 14, 2022

 dictionary + A - A 

No Itaewon witch hunts

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/11/14/opinion/columns/Halloween-tragedy-witch-hunt/20221114194653823.html


Lee Ha-kyung


The author is the chief editor of the JoongAng Ilbo.


The Halloween celebration in Itaewon, Seoul cut short 158 young lives. A mother who had lost her 24-year-old son wailed, “God, take me instead!” Although it had been a collective tragedy, the pain from the personal loss cannot be imagined by others.


We lost 532 from the collapse of Sampoong Department Store in 1995 and 304 from the Sewol ferry sinking in 2014. The Sampoong Department Store in a posh neighborhood in southern Seoul collapsed after the owner changed the structure of the building to a five-store department store from a humbler four-story shopping center to make more money. The building showing signs of fissures from the opening fell apart five years later.



The Sewol ferry was an old vessel bought from Japan by the owner. The vessel had retired with its kitchen section burnt down from aged electric wires. The Japanese seller would have laughed at the windfall of selling the ship to Korea, one of major shipbuilders around the world. The ferry sank because it was restructured to carry more people and goods. Greed killed hundreds of innocent lives.


Flowers, memos, drinks and snacks are placed in front of Exit No.1 of Itaewon Station, Seoul to commemorate the tragic deaths of 158 from a fatal crowd crush on Saturday, Oct. 29, before Halloween. [CHOI JAE-YOUNG]

Last month, people died while walking in the crowded streets on the weekend night. Like Sampoong and Sewol cases, a deadly accident had been foreseeable. Police and the Yongsan District office had expected more than 100,000 youngsters to swarm into the neighborhood for the first Halloween event in three years after restrictions from Covid-19 were lifted. Yet authorities did not prepare any countermeasures. What is the raison d’être of the state?


The government has been focusing on finding who is liable. The special investigation headquarters under the National Police Agency (NPA) has indicted six field officials while leaving the upper command intact. An intelligence officer at the Yongsan Police Station took his own life out of guilt. Police and fire department officers are protesting why officers on the frontline are taking all the blame.


American political theorist Iris Young said that if authorities concentrate on finding who should take legal responsibility, someone will avoid responsibility. She focuses on tracing back to the actions or motivations of particular individuals to address to what she called “structural injustice.” If so, the government, companies, and civilians must act to make the changes.


In 1755, an earthquake of a magnitude of 8.5 to 9 hit the Portuguese city of Lisbon. Up to 10 percent of its 250,000 population died and 85 percent of the buildings were destroyed. Amid continued aftershocks that caused fire and looting, the devout Roman Catholic Church found scapegoats, claiming the tragedy to be a “divine judgement” on human corruption and indulgences. Manic Witch-hunting and persecutions ensued. The Marquis de Pombal — the prime minister who awakened to rationalism after spending six years in Britain as ambassador — took control and rebuilt the city not by prayers but by science. Despite protests from the church, he ordered bodies thrown into the sea to prevent further decay in Lisbon.


He commissioned the first seismic study ever to rebuild the city to be safe from earthquakes. Buildings could not be built over four stories and roads were widened to allow people to take shelter. He fought with nobles and religious leaders to pave the way for reason and science.


After Sampoong, Sewol and Itaewon tragedies, Koreans must be determined to change. Yet politicians remain indifferent. They are seeking political interests from the deadly event. The Democratic Party (DP) demands a presidential resignation while the governing forces are pushing with arrest of the opposition leader on many charges. There is no end to the aporia. A national system that makes light of human dignity and public safety cannot be just. The courageous must raise the voice to correct the structural injustice.


In 2016 — 21 years after the Sampoong collapse — a survey on 40 firefighters at the rescue scene showed that all of them worried about the possibility of a major accident. The title of a special bill on the Sewol ferry tragedy included such words as “fact-finding” and a “safe society.” Under the goal of building a safe society, investigations had been repeated nine times, and yet maritime accidents have doubled over the years.


Who should be held accountable for the Itaewon tragedy? Punishing people in command and on the spot cannot end such tragedies. The structural injustice from collective negligence must be corrected. We must commit to a society where human dignity, lives and safety come first at all times. After the earthquake in Lisbon, witch trials and burning executions were banned. Korea today also must change.



14. Artillery shell exports to US



Can the ROK industrial base produce sufficient stockpiles of weapons to have on hand for war and export ammunition at the same time?


And of course the same question goes for the US industrial base. How many days of supply do we have on hand of ammunition and other critical supplies for war fighting?


Artillery shell exports to US

The Korea Times · November 14, 2022

Every diplomatic effort needed to soothe Russia


The Ministry of National Defense has confirmed that South Korea was negotiating with the United States to export 155-millimeter artillery shells to the U.S. to shore up diminishing inventories. In a statement Friday, the defense ministry said the negotiations to export ammunition are under the premise that the U.S. is the end user.


The Wall Street Journal had reported that 100,000 howitzer artillery rounds would be delivered to Ukraine after being bought by the U.S. from South Korea. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, Seoul has provided bulletproof vests, helmets and other non-lethal military gear as well as medical supplies to Ukraine. But South Korea has rejected Ukraine's request for weapons, sticking to its position of not providing weapons to Ukraine.


On Friday, the defense ministry also reaffirmed its commitment not to provide Ukraine with lethal military support. But it would be all but impossible to identify how the U.S. will use the artillery shells imported from South Korea. Given the U.S. military's concern about persistent transfers of the Pentagon's howitzer ammunition to Ukraine, South Korea, a U.S. ally, cannot turn a deaf ear to America's request for support.


Nonetheless, our government needs to be careful, considering that the arms export will antagonize Russia. In fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned last month that any assistance from South Korea to Ukraine would bring an end to bilateral relations between Seoul and Moscow. He even hinted at offering arms to North Korea. This ― if translated into reality ― will be an undesirable development that could help the North get closer to Russia and escape from its diplomatic isolation.


What's most worrisome is that our relationship with Russia, which has been relatively smooth even after the war in Ukraine, might go into a tailspin. South Korea has joined the West's sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, but their bilateral trade has been carried out properly. So there's no need to be in a hurry to send the artillery shells. The government should closely examine the possible aftermath of the arms export from the perspective of national interest and make every diplomatic effort to prevent a breakdown in our relationship with Russia.



The Korea Times · November 14, 2022



15. Biden raises concerns about N. Korea's provocations in summit with China's Xi



Biden raises concerns about N. Korea's provocations in summit with China's Xi | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · November 14, 2022

WASHINGTON, Nov. 14 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday raised concerns about North Korea's provocative behavior in summit talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and told Xi that the world should encourage Pyongyang to act "responsibly," the White House said.

Biden made the remarks as he held talks with Xi on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia.

"President Biden also raised concerns about the DPRK's provocative behavior, noted all members of the international community have an interest in encouraging the DPRK to act responsibly, and underscored the United States' ironclad commitment to defending our Indo-Pacific Allies," the White House said.

DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

On Sunday, Biden reaffirmed Washington's commitment to bolster its "extended deterrence" protection of South Korea and Japan during a trilateral summit with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

The three leaders met in Phnom Penh on the sidelines of annual regional gatherings amid heightened tensions in the wake of a series of North Korean missile launches and persistent concern that Pyongyang could carry out its seventh nuclear test at any time.

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · November 14, 2022




16. [Herald Interview] Biden must alienate Pyongyang from Beijing for N.Korea policy to work


The President just countered this theory in his press conference from Bali.


[Herald Interview] Biden must alienate Pyongyang from Beijing for N.Korea policy to work

US, S. Korea should put more diplomatic efforts toward transforming relationship with N. Korea


koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · November 14, 2022

Joel Wit speaks during a closed roundtable meeting hosted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies based in Seoul in 2015. (The Asan Institute for Policy Studies)

WASHINGTON -- The Biden administration’s current North Korea strategy has failed to embrace and take into account geopolitical realities and regional security dynamics, according to Joel Wit, the founder of 38 North, a US-based North Korea monitoring program.

To resuscitate nuclear negotiations and get a step closer to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, he says the US first and foremost should alienate North Korea from China.

Wit said the Biden administration’s current North Korea policy is not “even close to the right track” to achieve the ultimate goal of complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

“It’s a strategy that’s based on past approaches that never worked. It’s a strategy based on making alliances stronger, which is of course important. I’m not saying it’s not,” Wit, who also serves as a distinguished fellow in Asian and security studies at the Stimson Center, said in an interview with The Korea Herald on Oct. 31.


“But that’s not going to solve the problem. So it has no chance of success.”

In essence, the current US strategy on North Korea has failed to take into account geopolitical dynamics and risks persisting on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.

The US should reestablish its North Korea strategy to account for the impact of shifting geopolitical and security dynamics on North Korea’s strategic calculus and behaviors.

“The point is that a strategy needs to be devised. It, first and foremost, takes into account all the different factors, for example geopolitical factors,” Wit said. “Right now, we don’t have that at all. It’s not even close.”

Arms race and doctrine of preemptive strike

Wit underscored that Washington should consider key three external factors that have been increasing geopolitical complexity and volatility in the region when devising its North Korea strategy.

The closer alignment between North Korea and China is a paramount factor. The two have continued to be bound together as part of the structure of confrontation between a China-North Korea-Russia triangular alignment and South Korea-US-Japan trilateral cooperation has become entrenched in Northeast Asia.

North Korean state media have repeatedly highlighted the importance of strengthening strategic cooperation between China and North Korea against “hostile forces.” For instance, the Rodong Sinmun, an organ of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, said in July that China and North Korea would constantly strengthen and develop bilateral relations to a new and higher level in “unprecedented harsh circumstances,” including the US-led campaign to encircle China.

Wit also pointed to the intensifying arms race in Northeast Asia as a key factor to consider. The two Koreas, Japan, China and the US have entered into the equation, and the destabilizing arms race has complicated volatile security environments in the region.

Additionally, North Korea, South Korea and Japan have been moving toward greater consideration of preemptive strikes.

In September, North Korea passed a new nuclear law allowing preemptive nuclear strikes. South Korea has sought to expeditiously establish its homegrown three-axis defense system including the Kill Chain preemptive strike platform. Japan has pursued counterstrike capabilities that enable Japan to preemptively attack enemy missile bases in case of an imminent attack.

US President Joe Biden speaks virtually with Chinese leader Xi Jinping from the White House in Washington, US November 15, 2021. (File Photo- Reuters)

First step: Alienating N. Korea, China

But among the key factors, Wit underscored that the US and South Korea should put the priority on coming up with ways to alienate North Korea and China and to mend their current souring relations with North Korea.

“In the past, we have made the most progress with North Korea when it wants to distance itself from China. Right now, it’s closer to China than it’s ever been,” said Wit, who also engaged in the negotiations that led to the 1994 US-North Korea Agreed Framework and was in charge of its implementation as a US State Department official.

“The first step in any strategy is to think geopolitically. How do you move North Korea away from China toward better relations with the United States and South Korea? How do you do that? That’s the first point. If you can do that, then maybe you can tackle some of the security issues that are bothering us. If you can’t do that, we’re not gonna have any chance.”

For instance, the UN Security Council also has been unable to take any actions against more than 60 ballistic missile launches, including seven intercontinental ballistic missiles, by North Korea this year in the absence of support from China and Russia. The two are permanent veto-wielding members.


How? Offer prospect of fence-mending with N. Korea

Wit underscored that the US and South Korea should offer the prospect of transforming the overall relationship with North Korea to separate North Korea and China and draw North Korea closer to South Korea and the US in a bid to break a yearslong impasse in nuclear negotiations.

“The only way to do that is to offer the prospect of better relations with North Korea, and that means dealing with political, economic and other issues that are separating North Korea from the US and South Korea,” Wit said. “There’s no guarantee that’s going to work. But without it, nothing’s going on.”

Specifically, the US and South Korea should make it clear that they have the intention to address three core issues: establishing diplomatic relations between the US and North Korea, lifting economic sanctions and establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

Against that backdrop, Wit pointed out that the Biden administration’s proposal to meet North Korea without any preconditions and the Yoon Suk-yeol government’s “audacious initiative” are not serious enough to persuade North Korea to come to the negotiating table.

Wit also underlined that the US’ current North Korea strategy will not prevent the intensifying arms race in Northeast Asia or the move by the two Koreas and Japan toward greater consideration of preemptive attacks.

“If those trends continue five years from now, we will see nuclearization of Northeast Asia rather than denuclearization,” Wit said. “That means South Korea either (would) build its own weapons or the US would have to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons, and Japan may move in a similar direction.”

Wit warned of the possibilities that every country in Northeast Asia would have nuclear capabilities at some level and military doctrines that tend toward using weapons first to preempt attacks.

“It’s not desirable. But I think we are on that track right now. And the steps we’re taking now to deal with that are not going to stop it.”


Recalibrating deterrence strategy

Wit also expressed his skepticism when asked whether the current US extended deterrence arrangement is effective in deterring evolving North Korean threats.

“This is a very important question,” Wit said. “Can extended deterrence continue to remain strong in the face of what North Korea is doing and what China is doing as well? I would say that right now the prognosis is not very good for extended deterrence.”

South Korea and the US have concentrated on enhancing the viability of US extended deterrence against escalating North Korean threats.

Seoul and Washington reactivated the vice ministerial-level Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group and held a meeting in September for the first time since January 2018. The US has deployed US strategic assets, including a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and nuclear-capable strategic bombers, to the Korean Peninsula.

Extended deterrence is the US commitment to deter or respond to coercion and attacks against US allies and partners. The US nuclear umbrella is one means by which the US offers to achieve extended deterrence.

“I had one point here. The recent exercises -- that the United States and South Korea have conducted in response to North Korean missile tests -- don’t strengthen deterrence at all,” Wit said. “North Koreans are used to them. It’s like how we used to fly B-52s whenever North Korea conducted the WMD test. They’re having no effect whatsoever.”

The allies have conducted large-scale combined military exercises involving US strategic assets. For example, the US dispatched two B-1B Lancer bombers from Andersen Air Force Base on Guam in the Western Pacific to the Korean Peninsula in early November to mobilize them for the Vigilant Storm exercise. But North Korea has launched a barrage of missiles and more than 1,000 artillery shells while justifying them as a tit-for-tat military action in response to South Korea-US military exercises.

“Right now, we’re just dependent on making a lot of public pronouncements. I don’t even know what we’re doing to strengthen our defenses. I don’t think we’re doing much. And that’s not a coherent approach,” Wit said.

“It’s not an approach that’s going to work. So we need a strategy that combines both diplomatic outreach and strengthening cooperation with our allies.”

________________

The Korea Herald conducted a series of interviews with former senior US officials and experts in Washington from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2 on the occasion of the 54th South Korea-US Security Consultative Meeting. The interviews cover a wide range of pending issues, including the prospects for a denuclearized peninsula, the alliance’s deterrent posture against North Korean and regional threats as well as South Korea’s strategic role in the Indo-Pacific region. -- Ed.



By Ji Da-gyum (dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · November 14, 2022




17. The Near-Perfect North Korean Embassy Raid That Went Sour



I have Bradley Hope's book on my "to read" pile.



The Near-Perfect North Korean Embassy Raid That Went Sour

KNOCK KNOCK

Obsessed with bringing down the North Korean regime, Adrian Hong directed a 2019 raid on the North Korean Embassy in Madrid. There was just one problem...


Bradley Hope

Published Nov. 14, 2022 4:50AM ET 

The Daily Beast · November 14, 2022

Photo Illustration by Thomas Levinson/The Daily Beast/Getty

Three days before Christmas 2006, a 22-year-old Yale graduate from San Diego named Adrian Hong walked into a Kentucky Fried Chicken in Shenyang, China, flanked by two other Americans, women who were members of Hong’s group Liberty in North Korea. Hong had founded the organization a few years earlier, while still an undergraduate, to spotlight the human rights atrocities of the so-called “hermit kingdom,” whose border with China was a few hundred miles southeast of Shenyang. He entered college a young man in search of a cause and became obsessed with North Korea. At first, he organized protests and community engagement exercises, but he quickly ramped things up.

Accompanying Hong and the American women that day in Shenyang were six North Korean escapees, including two orphan boys aged sixteen and seventeen, three women in their forties, and a woman in her twenties.

The plan was to walk the group into the American consulate so they could claim asylum and travel to the United States to restart their lives, but officials in the embassy told Hong they wouldn’t accept the North Koreans. Hong and his group tried to go to Beijing instead to ask for help from the United Nations, but they were all arrested by Chinese police before they had a chance.

Hong barely got out of that scrape because he’d hidden a phone in the collar of his hoodie, allowing him to call American politicians and officials to let them know what had happened. The North Koreans were eventually released and allowed to move to the United States, but the experience hardened Hong’s views that to make a real difference when it came to the situation in North Korea, he and his volunteers would have to do everything themselves.

Nearly 13 years later, Adrian was still obsessively focused on North Korean and its human rights abuses—but his ambitions had grown much larger: taking down the North Korean regime itself, one defector at a time. This time, the stakes would be even higher.

​​On a Cool Friday afternoon in late winter in 2019, he showed walked up to the door of the North Korean embassy in Madrid and pressed the buzzer.

“¿Sí?” a voice said through the intercom after a few minutes. “Good afternoon, my name is Matthew Chao,” the man outside replied in good Spanish, explaining he’d been there several weeks earlier and had returned with a gift for “Señor So,” citing the name of the embassy’s highest-ranking official. Chao was a false name Adrian Hong had created for the mission.

The embassy was a burnt-orange compound in Madrid’s Valdemarín quarter, a posh district known for its parks and luxurious residences. The diplomatic compound looked more like the estate of a rich if perhaps paranoid Spaniard than the office-like quarters of the city’s other embassies. The discreet entry gate was set back from the sidewalk and flanked by an imposing wall. Little could be seen from the road, and most people in the neighborhood walked by without giving the building a second thought. The embassy received few visitors.

Now, however, hearing the name of his boss, the North Korean worker, a thirty-year-old embassy employee called Jin Choe, who was gardening when the buzzer rang, cracked open the door. Seeing a smiling, dapper Asian man wearing a black suit with a polka-dot tie and two shopping bags with gifts, Jin allowed him in. “I’ll find Mr. So,” he said, pointing the visitor to a seat on a bench inside the door. The time was just after 4:30 p.m.

As Jin went in search of Mr. So, outside the embassy walls an older woman resting at a bus stop was observing a different scene, one that would have caused the junior diplomat to shut the door and run for safety. Concealed against a wall near the embassy’s front door stood another five men dressed casually in blue jeans and sunglasses. Some of them wore large black backpacks. Several were crouching as if they were about to spring into the building.

The entrance to the North Korean Embassy on March 27, 2019 in Madrid, Spain.

Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images

A few moments after Jin disappeared, the man calling himself Matthew Chao rose from the bench and quietly opened the door behind him. The men waiting outside slipped inside. As they crossed the threshold onto North Korean grounds, several of the intruders pulled on black balaclavas and began running. They drew pistols and handcuffs from their bags, speaking to each other over a walkie-talkie app on their mobile phones and wireless headphones.

The intruders dispersed throughout the building, yelling at the startled staff to drop to the ground. After fastening their hands with plastic ties and handcuffs and placing bags over their heads, the masked men corralled the workers into a meeting room. Mr. So, whose full name is So Yun-suk, was initially pulled into a bathroom, while his wife—who had tried at first to barricade herself and their child in a bedroom—was guarded by a man upstairs without any restraints.

The intruders then went room by room, learning the layout of the embassy and ensuring no one was hiding in a closet or unused office. Most rooms were startlingly spare considering the building was home to four diplomatic staff as well as two of their wives and one young boy.

They charged into a propaganda room, whose walls were covered in North Korean ideological posters and stylized pictures of the three generations of the Kim dynasty, who have ruled the country since its founding in 1948 following the partitioning of Korea by the United States and the Soviet Union in 1945. The diplomats would be expected to gather in the room daily to read and recite ideological material praising their leader, Kim Jong-un, as well as his father and grandfather, as deities protecting the proud country from evildoers around the world, especially the United States.

“A gym worker driving through the usually sleepy neighborhood of Madrid nearly swerved into the curb when he saw a woman with blood dripping over her face screaming beside the road.”

Down one hallway, the embassy raiders came upon a chamber purported to exist in every North Korean embassy around the globe, a space few if any foreigners had ever set their eyes on: the intelligence center, featuring a computer, stacks of papers, and foil-lined walls intended to prevent the prying of Western intelligence agencies. Here the diplomats would receive orders from their superiors in North Korea via their own cryptographic system.

Within fifteen minutes, the group had taken control of the embassy and secured the premises. Or so they thought. Not all was what it seemed—both to the intruders and to the captives.

One of the North Korean hostages later told Spanish police that the man putting on his wrist tie couldn’t figure out how it worked at first and required help from another of the men, an odd shortcoming for what he automatically assumed was the work of an elite paramilitary group seizing control of the embassy.

With their terrified captives tied up, the intruders dashed through the rooms again, sweeping everything they could, including USB sticks, two computers, a mobile phone, documents, and two hard drives, into a backpack. One of the hard drives was connected to the embassy’s surveillance system, so taking it was meant to eliminate any evidence the men had been inside.

With the rest of the embassy staff terrified and tied up in the meeting room, Matthew Chao led So Yun-suk into the basement.

But there was a problem. What the intruders didn’t know is that they’d missed someone, Cho Sun-hi, wife of one of the officials and the unknown, seventh resident of the embassy. Hearing men with South Korean accents storming into the embassy, she panicked.

North Koreans have been in a declared state of war with South Korea since 1950, so any unexpected interaction with a South Korean has the potential to create a visceral panic. From the time they are toddlers, North Koreans are taught that the United States and South Korea are “cannibals” bent on destroying the great North Korean state. As the men went room to room, kicking down doors, Cho escaped onto the terrace outside her room on the second floor. Fearing for her life, she decided to jump. Dropping onto the concrete below, she landed hard, injuring her head and leg.

In pain but undeterred, Cho hobbled across a paddle tennis court and out a side door with a small path onto the main road. By the time she reached the road, she was crawling on all fours.

A gym worker driving through the usually sleepy neighborhood of Madrid nearly swerved into the curb when he saw a woman with blood dripping over her face screaming beside the road. He pulled over to help, later telling police he thought she’d been badly assaulted. He drove her to a clinic just down the road, where a staff member called an ambulance and the police. The woman was in a hysterical state, anguished words streaming out of her mouth, all but unintelligible to the Spaniards.

“The North Koreans, sitting on the floor, shuffled uncomfortably. Did the ringing signal help or further danger? They were still unable to see because of the bags over their heads.”

When police officers soon arrived, they struggled to determine where the distressed woman had come from. They tried calling the Chinese embassy but realized she couldn’t speak Chinese. One of the doctors used Google Translate to decipher her words. Finally, the officers understood; the woman was from the North Korean embassy, just up the road. But what she was telling them made little sense.

“Some people have entered the embassy and are killing and eating people,” Cho was screaming. “There are children in there.”

Back at the embassy, it had been only an hour since the masked men had stormed the building. During that time, Matthew Chao and his crew had tied up the staff, grabbed a ream of documents, and even quickly staged and filmed a video that involved smashing portraits of the former North Korean leaders on the ground.

About half an hour later, the intruders froze at the sound of the embassy’s door buzzer. It was the police. Composing himself—and placing a “Dear Leader” pin, a red North Korean flag with portraits of Kim Jong-un’s forefathers, on his suit jacket—Chao headed to the door.

The Daily Beast

Affecting the tone of a haughty and standoffish official, he opened the door to confront three Madrid police officers wearing sunglasses. They explained to Chao that an injured woman had been found on the street and was howling that something bad was happening inside the embassy.

Feigning bureaucratic nonchalance, Chao explained that if police wanted to interact with the embassy, they must go through the appropriate channels. Then he shut the door.

But who had called the police to the embassy in the first place? As the intruders raced to determine the leak in their airtight plan, it dawned on them: they’d missed someone. Someone had gotten away, someone they didn’t know lived in the embassy until this moment.

They’d now been in the embassy for more than two hours. The original plan was to stay for no longer than forty-five minutes.

Ring. Ring. Ring.

Suddenly the phones in the embassy started to ring incessantly. The men tried to ignore them as they continued to try to convince So Yun-suk everything would be fine once they got on their way.

But whoever was calling was incessant, dialing again and again for hours. The sound filled the embassy’s cavernous interiors, devoid of much furniture or carpeting. As afternoon turned to night, the masked men exchanged increasingly worried glances.

The North Koreans, sitting on the floor, shuffled uncomfortably. Did the ringing signal help or further danger? They were still unable to see because of the bags over their heads.

In the basement, So Yun-suk, the embassy’s top North Korean official, stared with a pained expression at the man calling himself Matthew Chao.

“You can’t keep me safe, Adrian,” he declared, with an air of resignation. “You have to leave. Now.”

From the book THE REBEL AND THE KINGDOM: The True Story of the Secret Mission to Overthrow the North Korean Regime by Bradley Hope. Copyright © 2022 by Bradley Hope. Published by Crown, an imprint of Random House, a division of Penguin Random House LLC. All rights reserved.

The Daily Beast · November 14, 2022



18. PH supports S. Korea’s bid to denuclearize peninsula


And hopefully also for a free and unified Korea.


PH supports S. Korea’s bid to denuclearize peninsula

newsinfo.inquirer.net · by Julie M. Aurelio · November 14, 2022

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol (C) speaks during a trilateral meeting with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit during the 40th and 41st Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summits in Phnom Penh on November 13, 2022. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP)

PHNOM PENH—Calling North Korea’s series of missile testing a “great concern,” President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has committed to back South Korea’s efforts for the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Mr. Marcos made the remarks during his bilateral meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol on Saturday on the sidelines of the 40th and 41st Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summits here in Phnom Penh.

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Earlier this month, North Korea launched a short range ballistic missile that landed in the East Sea, or the Sea of Japan.

“This is of great concern and we are fully supportive of the Republic of Korea in all your efforts to denuclearize North Korea,” the President told the South Korean state leader.

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Mr. Marcos added: “The Philippines is one with you on that and we will do what we can to assist South Korea in that effort.”

On Friday, the President called on North Korea to comply with the United Nations’ Security Council resolutions concerning North Korea, many of which were adopted in relation to its missile and nuclear program.


“The Philippines reiterates its grave concerns over the series of missile launches conducted this year,” the President said. INQ

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newsinfo.inquirer.net · by Julie M. Aurelio · November 14, 2022




19. South Korea aligns Indo-Pacific strategy with US, Japan: experts


Excerpts:


The strategic concept tying the Indian and Pacific oceans together expands the geographical demarcation of the Asian region to include India. Strongly promoted by Japan and the US, the Indo-Pacific concept has largely been perceived to hold the intention to contain the growing influence of China in the region.
Former chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy Kim Joon-hyung also said the Korean version of the Indo-Pacific strategy is making official that South Korea is taking the side of the US.
“The Indo-Pacific strategy is strengthening the bond of maritime forces, and there is no continent, meaning it does not include China, North Korea and Russia,” Kim said in a local radio interview Monday.
“No one would deny values of freedom, human rights and democracy, but when they are highlighted strongly, it ultimately would exclude the countries that do not share the pursuits,” Kim said.
Kim also claimed that the US would want South Korea to play a role in persuading member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to take the US side against China, taking advantage of Korea's strong network with the bloc.



South Korea aligns Indo-Pacific strategy with US, Japan: experts

koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · November 14, 2022

South Korea’s first diplomatic strategy for the Indo-Pacific region appears to show the intention to align with the United States in the US-China rivalry, experts based in Seoul said Monday.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol on Friday unveiled the country's first Indo-Pacific strategy for freedom, peace and prosperity for the region, at the biannual Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Cambodia.

There, Yoon highlighted the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region -- which has gained increasing strategic importance amid the US-China competition -- and said any unilateral change in the status quo by force should not be tolerated.

"Based on the three key visions of freedom, peace and prosperity, and under the three key cooperation principles of inclusiveness, trust and reciprocity, we will implement the Indo-Pacific strategy," Yoon said.

Receiving much support from the US and Japan for the release of the Indo-Pacific strategy, South Korea vowed a trilateral partnership for a "free and open Indo-Pacific" with the two countries, issuing the trilateral statement on Sunday.

In the Phnom Penh Statement on Trilateral Partnership for the Indo-Pacific, Yoon jointly affirmed with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida their trilateral partnership for a "free and open Indo-Pacific."

"The leaders welcome their respective approaches to the Indo-Pacific, and agreed to be in solidarity in pursuit of a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is inclusive, resilient and secure," the US White House said in the statement explaining the Phnom Penh Statement.

"The leaders agreed to closely cooperate in implementing their various Indo-Pacific Strategies."

Experts here say the Korean version of the Indo-Pacific strategy shows that South Korea has aligned its diplomatic course to lean toward the US, and conflict with China may be inevitable.

"The three countries basically agreed on building a cooperative system under the Indo-Pacific strategy framework, going further than just sharing their thoughts," Hong Min, director of the North Korean research division at the Korea Institute for National Unification told The Korea Herald.

"The content (of Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy) is comprehensively dealing with not only the economy but also security, and it can be understood both at the surface level and virtually that Korea has joined the Indo-Pacific concept pursued by the US."

"South Korea does not say directly that its strategy is aimed at containing China, but its values are aligned with that of the US and some kind of conflict with China is likely to occur in the future," Hong said.

The strategic concept tying the Indian and Pacific oceans together expands the geographical demarcation of the Asian region to include India. Strongly promoted by Japan and the US, the Indo-Pacific concept has largely been perceived to hold the intention to contain the growing influence of China in the region.

Former chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy Kim Joon-hyung also said the Korean version of the Indo-Pacific strategy is making official that South Korea is taking the side of the US.

“The Indo-Pacific strategy is strengthening the bond of maritime forces, and there is no continent, meaning it does not include China, North Korea and Russia,” Kim said in a local radio interview Monday.

“No one would deny values of freedom, human rights and democracy, but when they are highlighted strongly, it ultimately would exclude the countries that do not share the pursuits,” Kim said.

Kim also claimed that the US would want South Korea to play a role in persuading member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to take the US side against China, taking advantage of Korea's strong network with the bloc.

Yoon’s presidential office maintains that the Indo-Pacific strategy is not intended at keeping China in check.

“(The Indo-Pacific strategy) is the country’s first comprehensive regional strategy, and it means our diplomatic perspective has expanded to meet the country’s national dignity and status,” national security adviser Kim Sung-han told a press briefing on Saturday.

“Strengthening rule-based international order pursuing common values meets our national interest,” Kim said.

At the same time, Kim underscored that the country’s pursuit of common values does not mean it intends to exclude countries that do not share those values.

“It does not mean that we will condemn or exclude the countries that do not share our pursuit of the common values. What it means is that we will openly cooperate (with those countries) for common goals of interest, but take stern response measures against attempts to harm the common values and rule-based international order,” Kim added.

By Jo He-rim (herim@heraldcorp.com)

koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · November 14, 2022

20. Biden: Partnership with Japan, South Korea ‘more important’ in face of North Korea threat


Just in case we have not gotten the message on the importance of trilateral cooperation.


Now, let's work toward a trilateral alliance. Think of the enormous economic and military power of such an alliance. Of course it is only a distant dream now.


Biden: Partnership with Japan, South Korea ‘more important’ in face of North Korea threat

BY ZACH SCHONFELD - 11/13/22 7:54 AM ET


https://thehill.com/homenews/3732942-biden-partnership-with-japan-south-korea-more-important-in-face-of-north-korea-threat/


President Biden, speaking alongside his Japanese and South Korean counterparts on Sunday, said that the countries’ trilateral partnership is more important in the wake of “provocative” behavior from North Korea.

“This partnership is more important than it’s ever been,” Biden said during a meeting on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

The U.S. and South Korea held joint air force drills dubbed “Vigilant Storm,” which involved F-35 fighter jets and more than 200 warplanes, that ended earlier this month. North Korea vowed to respond, calling the U.S. the “chief culprit in destroying peace and security.”

North Korea fired a barrage of ballistic missiles in recent weeks, saying they included tests meant to practice striking South Korean and U.S. air bases, command systems and aircraft.

Biden on Sunday called the behavior “provocative” and stressed the importance of the trilateral alliance in responding.

“Japan and the Republic of Korea are critical allies of the United States,” Biden said.

At the trilateral meeting, both Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol echoed similar sentiments about the North Korean threat.

Kishida called the meeting “extremely timely.”

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Zelensky sees ‘beginning of the end’ of war with Russia during Kherson tour

Yoon said the developments in the peninsula “require the strongest level of our trilateral cooperation.” 

“At a time when South Koreans are grieving in deep sorrow, North Korea continues its provocations,” Yoon said, referencing the crowd crush in Seoul late last month that killed more than 100 people.

Biden and Kishida offered Yoon condolences for the tragedy during the meeting.














De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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