Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man. True nobility lies in being superior to your former self."

- Ernest Hemingway

"Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution."

- Aristotle

"It is a little embarrassing that, after forty-five years of research and study, the advice I can give to people is to be a little kinder to each other."

- Aldous Huxley

1. N. Korea warns of 'unprecedentedly' strong counteractions against S. Korea-U.S. drills

2. Defense white paper revives the phrase ‘N. Korean regime and military equal enemies’

3. [Column] Lift the ban on sending leaflets to the North

4. Foreign minister stresses need for responsible use of AI in military domain

5. N.Korea 'Sold Arms to Russia in Return for White Horses'

6. Will President Yoon follow in de Gaulle's nuclear footsteps?

7. My expectations of US career diplomat

8. S. Korea, US to stage exercise simulating N. Korea’s nuclear use

9. It’s too soon to be sure about Kim Jong Un’s successor, experts say

10. China begins limited campaign to vaccinate N. Korean defectors

11. S. Korea to introduce 'anti-drone' system to key facilities

12. 10 shocking facts about North Korea you don't know

13. Parliamentary committee adopts resolution marking 70th anniversary of S. Korea-U.S. alliance

14. Tilting to US, S Korea ends era of ‘strategic ambiguity’

15. North Korean-Russian Trade Rebounds, Satellite Images Show

1. N. Korea warns of 'unprecedentedly' strong counteractions against S. Korea-U.S. drills

I hope no one is duped by north Korean rhetoric. We must never back down in the face of such talk. To do so will make Kim think his political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies are successful.

(LEAD) N. Korea warns of 'unprecedentedly' strong counteractions against S. Korea-U.S. drills | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 17, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES with more remarks, details from 5th para; RECASTS lead; ADDS photo)

SEOUL, Feb. 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korea warned Friday that South Korea and the United States will face "unprecedentedly persistent and strong counteractions" should they press ahead with their planned combined military drills.

A spokesperson of the North's foreign ministry issued the warning as Seoul and Washington plan to stage their combined springtime Freedom Shield exercise in the coming weeks.

"In case the U.S. and South Korea carry into practice their already-announced plan for military drills which the DPRK, with just apprehension and reason, regards as preparations for an aggression war, they will face unprecedentedly persistent and strong counteractions," the spokesperson said in a statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

The spokesperson took issue with a series of the allies' drills earlier this year, including those involving strategic bombers and stealth fighters, as well as their plan to stage some 20 large-scale joint field exercises this year

"This predicts that the situation in the Korean peninsula and the region will be again plunged into the grave vortex of escalating tension," the official said.

The official added the North should "have to make reactions since the U.S. and South Korea openly revealed their dangerous attempt to gain a long-term military edge."

The remarks raised speculation that the North may be moving to build a rationale for the resumption of provocative acts, such as ballistic missile launches, and to shift the blame to the South and the U.S.

The spokesperson also criticized the U.S. for "coercively" convening a U.N. Security Council (UNSC) session on North Korean issues this week.

"This shows that the U.S. moves to turn the UNSC with heavy responsibility for the international peace and security into a tool for the U.S. illegal hostile policy toward the DPRK have gone to the extremes that cannot be allowed any longer," the official claimed.

The spokesperson also warned that if the UNSC continues to be "inveigled by the U.S.," the North will consider "measures for additional actions, to say nothing of the category of normal military activities."

Youtube

https://youtu.be/XvHaYQtxQDE

This file photo, released on Feb. 2, 2023, by South Korea's defense ministry, shows South Korean and U.S. combat aircraft engaging in combined air drills over the Yellow Sea. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 17, 2023

2. Defense white paper revives the phrase ‘N. Korean regime and military equal enemies’

"N. Korean regime"

I would have preferred the "mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime." But I will take the small victory calling the regime the enemy.

Defense white paper revives the phrase ‘N. Korean regime and military equal enemies’

donga.com

Posted February. 17, 2023 07:41,

Updated February. 17, 2023 07:41

Defense white paper revives the phrase ‘N. Korean regime and military equal enemies’. February. 17, 2023 07:41. by Sang-Ho Yun, Hyo-Ju Son ysh1005@donga.com,hjson@donga.com.

South Korea’s Ministry of Defense has described the North Korean regime and its military as enemies in the “2022 National Defense White Paper,” which was published for the first time under the Yoon Suk Yeol administration. It is the first time in six years since the defense white paper in 2016 that the expression‎ “North Korean regime = enemy” has been stated in the Ministry’s white paper. The Defense White Paper, which is published every two years, is a “defense guideline” that builds a security consensus and informs the public and private sectors of its defense policies.

The 2022 White Paper stated, “North Korea specifies communization of the entire Korean Peninsula in the preamble of the revised Workers’ Party Statute in 2021 and clearly defined South Korea as its enemy at the Plenary Session of the Party Central Committee in 2022, and continues to make military threats without giving up its nuclear weapons, making its regime and military our enemies.”

The white papers in 2018 and 2020 under the Moon Jae-in administration dropped the phrases that define the North’s regime and military as enemies, only stating that “our military considers any forces that threaten or violate the sovereignty, territory, people, and property of the Republic of Korea as enemies.” Regarding the revival of the term “enemy,” the military said that “the revival of the term ‘enemy’ was in consideration of North Korea’s strategies toward the South, the instances of defining us as “enemies,” continued nuclear advancement, and military threats and provocations.”

Unlike the 2018 and 2020 white papers, which called the North Korean leader “Chairman Kim Jong Un of North Korea,” the latest paper referred to him as “Kim Jong Un” without putting the title.

It also updated its assessment of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. North Korea’s plutonium stockpile was described as “about 50 kilograms” in the defense white papers from 2016 to 2020, but the paper in 2022 listed it as “about 70 kilograms,” an increase of 20 kilograms. It also expanded the North’s ballistic missile arsenal by adding seven new types, including the ‘Monster’ Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) of Hwasong-17, Pukguksong-4, 5 (submarine-launched ballistic missile), and two hypersonic missiles.

한국어

donga.com

3. [Column] Lift the ban on sending leaflets to the North

I concur. Lift the ban. Find the law unconstitutional. Enact new legislation. Send information into the north.

We need a human rights upfront policy, a sophisticated information and influence campaign, and pursue a free and unified Korea.

Thursday

February 16, 2023

dictionary + A - A

[Column] Lift the ban on sending leaflets to the North

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/02/16/opinion/columns/North-Korea-propaganda-leaflet/20230216200415945.html

Son Gi-woong

The author, former head of the Korea Institute for National Unification, is the director of the Korea Institute for Peace and Cooperation.

What is North Korean leader Kim Jong-un most afraid of? American invasion? No. If the United States wanted to attack North Korea, it would have done so when the North Korean military were not strong enough to compete with America — or before it had nuclear weapons. Now that North Korea has become a de facto nuclear weapons state and is backed by China and Russia, an attack on the North seems realistically impossible. Unless Kim starts a war, there would not be one.

In my view, Kim must be most afraid of North Koreans changing after learning the truth. They could realize the truth behind the worst poverty and dictatorship in the world, the meaning of human rights, freedom and democracy, and the real purpose of nuclear weapons, which is the maintenance of power and hereditary succession for Kim and his family, unlike the propaganda of preparations for foreign invasion. Kim is also afraid of his people knowing the real reason for all the pain they suffer from international sanctions.

Kim Jong-un would be most afraid of South Korea changing North Koreans. The economic gap has grown the widest — as many as 50 times as wide — since the division seven decades ago. North Korea is no match for South Korea in human rights, liberty, democracy and welfare. As Kim studied in Europe, he knows well how East Germany collapsed by the influence of West Germany and how the socialist states in Eastern Europe changed because of the demands from their people.

Kim’s fear was resolved by President Moon Jae-in and his progressive administration. In December 14, 2020, the Democratic Party (DP) pushed for a ban on sending propaganda leaflets to North Korea by revising the “Act on the Development of Inter-Korean Relations.” The transmission of any data and information to the North and its people is strictly controlled and any violation is subject to punishment. So-called democratization activists created an evil law covering the eyes and ears of North Koreans. It was a gift to the North Korean leader.

There is no law more sinister than this. First, it blocks efforts to inform North Koreans of the truth. At the time, the Moon administration did not approach the North Korean people, but only cared about their leader. It is a ridiculous idea to try to coexist with Kim’s hereditary dictatorship in the name of peace. The South Korean government did not do the right thing for North Koreans who are Korean citizens under our Constitution. Instead, the government banned private efforts to do so on its behalf.

Second, the ‘third country’ clause is a toxic one. The banned items include leaflets and items, including advertising propaganda, printed material and auxiliary storage devices and money, sent or distributed through third countries. As it is referred to as a “ban on leaflets to North Korea,” some South Koreans mistake it for a law aimed at protecting the lives and properties of the people living in the border area by controlling the distribution of leaflets from the sensitive area. But it is an evil law that controls and punishes any efforts to inform North Koreans of the truth not only from the border area but also from anywhere in the world.

The Yoon Suk Yol administration must focus on “changing North Korea by changing North Koreans.” It must encourage North Korean residents to open their eyes to the truth, demand their human rights, liberty, democracy and welfare, realize that nuclear weapons are their tragedy, not happiness, and call for a humane life and system changes without nuclear weapons. Informing the North Koreans of the truth is an urgent task. Decisions and actions are up to North Koreans.

The link is North Korea’s democratization and human rights. The Yoon Suk Yeol administration and the governing party must roll up their sleeves to take the lead for a human-like existence for North Koreans. The job must not be given to the DP whose party platform does not include such terms as “liberal democracy” or “freedom.”

President Yoon should resolutely walk towards the day when all residents of the Korean Peninsula enjoy freedom, democracy, human rights and welfare, as he announced in his own voice. The government and the people must proudly walk the path toward reunification as stipulated in the Constitution, not as the “collaborators of division” by treating communication and cooperation with North Korea as reunification.

While deterring North Korean provocations, the Yoon administration must set goals for its North Korea policy and unification policy. In other words, the goal of North Korea policy should be increasing the number of North Koreans who properly understand South Korea’s development one by one. The goal of the unification policy should be to make more North Koreans want to work with South Korea one by one. It starts with abolishing the nonsensical ban on dispatching leaflets across the border.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.

4. Foreign minister stresses need for responsible use of AI in military domain

Foreign minister stresses need for responsible use of AI in military domain

The Korea Times · February 17, 2023

Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra, left, and Foreign Minister Park Jin at the Summit on Responsible AI in the Military Domain in The Hague, Netherlands, Thursday (local time). Courtesy of Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Korea to host second REAIM meeting next year

By Kang Seung-woo

Foreign Minister Park Jin has called for the international community to be responsible in the military use of artificial intelligence (AI).

His comment was made at the Summit on Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM 2023) in The Hague, Netherlands, Thursday (local time).

"Over the past two days, we had productive discussions with experts from diverse backgrounds on the opportunities and challenges presented by AI. With the wisdom gained from the conference, we should proceed and act to prevent wrong uses of AI in the military domain," Park said during the summit's closing ceremony.

Korea and the Netherlands were the co-hosts of the meeting regarding the responsible use of AI in defense contexts. The two-day event brought together 80 government delegations and hundreds of researchers and defense contractors.

The summit was held as part of measures to implement the accord signed by President Yoon Suk Yeol and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte during their summit talks in Seoul last November.

"As a leading Asian nation in AI development, the Republic of Korea (ROK) recognizes the significance of pursuing meaningful dialogue on this topic. This also aligns with the Yoon Suk-yeol government's priority to establish a digital order that promotes freedom, solidarity and human rights," Park said. The Republic of Korea refers to Korea's official name.

"This is all the more important, especially for Korea, which is facing a real threat from North Korea in terms of escalating weapons of mass destruction program, including nuclear and missile threats."

Dutch Ambassador to Korea Joanne Doornewaard said the REAIM 2023 set a good example of how smaller and medium-sized countries like Korea and the Netherlands can initiate international discussion on challenges of the future.

Foreign Minister Park Jin, left, and Dutch Ambassador to Korea Joanne Doornewaard / Courtesy of Embassy of the Netherlands in Korea

"It is also a great example of bilateral cooperation between the Netherlands and ROK. It is exactly the kind of collaboration that our leaders agreed to work on when they concluded the strategic partnership last November," she said during a small gathering of journalists, business leaders and cyber security experts at the Embassy of the Netherlands in Seoul, Wednesday. They were invited to watch together the opening session of the REAIM 2023 summit, which was livestreamed in real time.

"This topic feels like something that does not affect our daily lives, this particular brand of cooperation between the Netherlands and the Republic of Korea has gone somewhat under the radar," the Dutch ambassador also said.

Through the event, 60 countries signed a commitment to the ethical use of AI by coming up with a "call to action."

"The REAIM Summit marks a significant step in raising global awareness about these potential risks and the importance of developing and using AI responsibly," Park said.

"I have the feeling that all of us agree that the impact of AI on our lives is so significant that no country is free from the current challenges that we face."

Also, the foreign minister said Korea will host next year's REAIM summit as the country is committed to securing political attention to the issue and promoting international discussions.

"Korea is proud to announce that it will host the 2nd REAIM Summit in Korea in cooperation with the Netherlands," Park said.

He also said the country will build on its experience hosting the Conference on Cyberspace in 2013 and the Nuclear Security Summit in 2012, which it organized together with the Netherlands and the United States.

"To this end, we plan to delve into the implications of AI on global peace and security at the annual World Emerging Security Forum hosted by Korea later this year," he said.

The Korea Times · February 17, 2023

5. N.Korea 'Sold Arms to Russia in Return for White Horses'

You cannot make this stuff up. Do we need to put white horses on the sanctions list?

N.Korea 'Sold Arms to Russia in Return for White Horses'

english.chosun.com

February 17, 2023 12:07

North Korea is suspected of supplying arms to Russia since late last year in return for luxury goods including a trainload of white horses.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is thought to have used the prized steeds as gifts for his family and high-ranking officials.

An intelligence source said some of the horses were used in a recent military parade.

White horses carry powerful symbolism in North Korea, and Kim and his wife Ri Sol-ju have posed riding them through a winter landscape on Mt. Baekdu looking like a pair of tubby Elves from "Lord of the Rings."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (far right) and his daughter (second from right) attend a military parade in Pyongyang on Feb. 8, in this grab from the [North] Korean Central News Agency.

Russian news media reported that 51 Orlov Trotter horses were exported to North Korea last year.

One source familiar with North Korean affairs said, "Trains between Russia and North Korea resumed in November last year after being halted for two years and the first things to be imported were luxury goods for the Kim Jong-un family and high-ranking officials instead of daily necessities for the people."

State media showed Kim and his "beloved" daughter Ju-ae riding on the Orlov Trotters during the military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the army on Feb. 8. The display led to speculation that Kim has chosen his daughter as his successor to the North Korean throne.

english.chosun.com

6. Will President Yoon follow in de Gaulle's nuclear footsteps?

Conclusion:

I hope that President Yoon's visit will be a milestone not only in bolstering the ROK-U.S. alliance into the next decades, but also in upgrading U.S. extended deterrence to South Korea to a new height without the need to cross the proliferation threshold. If the two leaders can reassure that "we go together" ― the famous slogan of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command ― even at the fatal moment, one shared nuclear umbrella should be enough to dispel de Gaulle's anxiety revisited in Korea.

Will President Yoon follow in de Gaulle's nuclear footsteps?

The Korea Times · February 16, 2023

By Yun Byung-se

Just two years ago, a very unusual report was released by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (CCGA) titled, "Preventing Nuclear Proliferation and Reassuring America's Allies." It was the product of a special task force comprised of 16 former top policymakers ― prime ministers, foreign and defense ministers including myself, national security advisers as well as a former NATO commander and heads of global think tanks (IISS, MSC, FRS and CCGA).

As the title indicated, it was an alarm bell to remind the United States that the time has come to think the unthinkable ― that nuclear options could be pursued not just by rogue states, but also by close U.S. allies in Europe and Asia in the coming decade.

In essence, it was a contemporary reminder to the U.S. of the late French President Charles de Gaulle's question posed to President J.F. Kennedy in 1961: "Would the U.S. really be willing to trade New York for Paris or Hamburg?" That question represented Western European allies' fear of possible abandonment by the U.S.

The CCGA report came up with about two dozen specific recommendations for the Biden administration to strengthen not just longstanding nuclear deterrence, but also reassurance for European and Asian allies.

Many of those recommendations were relevant to the U.S.-South Korea alliance as well. They included, among others;

- Proactively raise the salience of nuclear weapons issues in U.S. alliance relations and involve allies in the nuclear planning process from the outset.

- Increase alliance crisis management exercises, involving alliance leaders at the highest level in regular war gaming.

- Review U.S. non-strategic nuclear weapons posture to assure the adequacy of its forward-based systems and commitments in a careful yet serious manner.

- Create an Asian Nuclear Planning Group to reassure its three regional allies ― Australia, Japan, and South Korea ― as the U.S. has in the NATO context.

- Reestablish strong trilateral security cooperation among the U.S., Japan and South Korea.

- Consider an eventual inclusion of South Korea in the Quad Security Dialogue.

Within a short span of two years, CCGA TF's concern about thinking the unthinkable as well as its recommendations have been echoed by many senior policymakers and think tank experts at home and abroad. It has been vindicated by the worsening threat environment as follows:

First of all, North Korea's fast-growing nuclear and missile capabilities, including tactical nuclear weapons and its preemptive use policy. Second, the heightening tensions in the Taiwan Straits and China's commitment to unification even by military means. Third, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its willingness to use nuclear weapons, which led German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to declare "Zeitenwende" (turn of an era). Finally, the explicit or implicit collaboration among China, Russia and North Korea on strategic posturing, including at the U.N. Security Council.

Such developments have impacted the views of South Koreans on their nuclear options. A February 2022 poll by the CCGA showed that over 50 percent of South Koreans favor the return of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the peninsula and over 70 percent support going nuclear. The latest poll by Chey Institute this January showed a 76.6 percent support rate ― the highest in recent years. The nuclear options debates are ongoing still.

It was probably against this backdrop that President Yoon Suk Yeol remarked last month on Korea's possible nuclear options in the case of an existential threat by North Korea. While it was not intended to change the official position of extended deterrence, it reflected the sentiment of the South Korean public.

From my standpoint, it boils down to the essence of the decision that any responsible leader has to face in view of the gravity of the threat looming across the horizon. In that sense, it echoes the question raised by President de Gaulle 62 years ago. Or you may call it a Korean version of German Chancellor Scholz's Zeitenwende.

It is no wonder that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres eloquently reminded U.N. Members on the dire international security situation in his opening remarks to the U.N. General Assembly last week, quoting this year's Doomsday Clock statement. "The Doomsday Clock is now 90 seconds to midnight, or total global catastrophe, the closest the clock has ever stood to humanity's darkest hour ― closer than even during the height of the Cold War." The Russian invasion of Ukraine and rising nuclear threats from the likes of North Korea are key triggers for such a sobering statement.

In this sense, the latest report by the CSIS Commission on the Korean Peninsula released last month rightly assessed that "new levels of doubt among U.S. allies call for Washington to devise new ways to restore the credibility of extended deterrence ― both to reduce Japan's and South Korea's sense of vulnerability and to ensure that U.S. alliances in Asia remain a force for stability long into the future."

The report introduced a new concept "community of shared fate," which forms the core of extended deterrence and is a signal of U.S. resolve to protect its allies from external aggression, even at the risk of its own cities. More specifically, it recommended, among others, the creation of a NATO-type joint nuclear planning framework for nuclear weapons use ― bilaterally and trilaterally (with Japan) ― as well as the consideration of pre-decisional tabletop exercises for the possible redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea.

Against this background, it is noteworthy to see the U.S. government making two-track efforts to prevent the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons and reassure both European and Asian allies. The Munich Security Conference starting today will be a timely occasion to discuss all these and other challenges among key allied leaders, including Foreign Ministers of the U.S., South Korea, Japan and Europe.

Between U.S. and South Korea, non-stop high-level meetings have been underway intensively since early this year. President Yoon's visit to the U.S. in the coming months will be a crowning moment, marking the seventieth anniversary of the ROK-U.S. alliance. Various aspects of extended deterrence will be high on the agenda.

I hope that President Yoon's visit will be a milestone not only in bolstering the ROK-U.S. alliance into the next decades, but also in upgrading U.S. extended deterrence to South Korea to a new height without the need to cross the proliferation threshold. If the two leaders can reassure that "we go together" ― the famous slogan of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command ― even at the fatal moment, one shared nuclear umbrella should be enough to dispel de Gaulle's anxiety revisited in Korea.

Yun Byung-se, a former foreign minister of South Korea (2013-2017), is now a board member of the Korea Peace Foundation and a member of several ex-global leaders' forums and task forces, including the Astana Forum and its Consultative Council as well as the Task Force on U.S. Allies and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation sponsored by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

The Korea Times · February 16, 2023

7. My expectations of US career diplomat

This is an interesting comment in an otherwise friendly OpEd toward the Ambassador. . I do not think we can yet know what must be private diplomatic discussions and of course exposing certain policies or aspects of policies may not be useful.

some policies

Excerpt:

I would like to know of his anticipated flexible policy engagements for friendly U.S.-Korea collaborations. Neither the U.S. nor Korea has made, as yet, any alleged blueprints to confront the growing nuke and ballistic missile threats posed by a hostile North Korea or the direct arms exports to Ukraine. It is my firm conviction that Amb. Goldberg will design specific devices thoroughly to help rebuild trust and peace and reduce risks and concerns on the Korean Peninsula.

My expectations of US career diplomat

The Korea Times · February 16, 2023

By Lee Sun-ho

The 25th U.S. Ambassador to Korea Philip S. Goldberg's 29-minute luncheon speech session was convened Feb. 6 at the Westin Josun Seoul. He was invited by the Korea-America Association immediately after its annual gatherings there.

I was interested in listening to what he really thinks of his policy prescriptions about current pending issues on the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific between the two comprehensive alliances. He presented his credentials to President Yoon Suk Yeol on July 29, 2022, preceded by Harry B. Harris, Jr., retired four-star admiral following the exceptional position vacancy for a one-and-a-half-year timespan.

To my understanding, Ambassador Goldberg holds the personal rank of career ambassador, the highest rank of the U.S. Foreign Service. As a senior state development fellow, he has received numerous presidential, state department and intelligence community awards. His Washington, D.C. assignments included coordinating the implementation of U.N. sanctions on North Korea.

Reviewing his career, location-wise both in the U.S. and overseas, it is interesting for me to notice that he spent his life at the same places where I had some connections in the bygone decades.

As a native of Boston and a graduate of Boston University, his hometown is the very city for my two-year graduate work at Boston College in the mid-1960s. Before joining the U.S. Foreign Service, Goldberg worked as a liaison officer between the Big Apple authorities and the U.N. in the cosmopolitan metropolis I dwelled in for five years in the late 20th century. Washington, D.C. where he served his key career at the U.S. State Department is my most-frequently-visited capital city in my lifespan.

His foreign services in Latin America as a top U.S. diplomat, assigned both in Chile between 2002-02 and Columbia in 2019-22, reminds me of my first visits there in 1980 and 1988. His 2013-16 mission in Manila reminds me of the tropical city where I worked for the Asian Development Bank during 1970-74.

I would like to know of his anticipated flexible policy engagements for friendly U.S.-Korea collaborations. Neither the U.S. nor Korea has made, as yet, any alleged blueprints to confront the growing nuke and ballistic missile threats posed by a hostile North Korea or the direct arms exports to Ukraine. It is my firm conviction that Amb. Goldberg will design specific devices thoroughly to help rebuild trust and peace and reduce risks and concerns on the Korean Peninsula.

On the occasion of the 141st year of bilateral diplomatic relations and the 70th anniversary of the mutual defense treaty between Korea and the U.S. this year, I earnestly wish for the freedom-loving bond between the two countries to be further upgraded. This is despite many uncertain dangers lying ahead caused by North Korea, neighboring giants and elsewhere during his tenure as ambassador in Korea.

I am pretty sure that Amb. Goldberg will eventually bring about sustainable but resolute strategies. He will diversify mutually-beneficial partnerships in versatile spheres of solid democratic needs and wants for the sake of the reciprocal interests of the two nations.

The writer (wkexim@naver.com) is a freelance columnist living in Seoul.

The Korea Times · February 16, 2023

8. S. Korea, US to stage exercise simulating N. Korea’s nuclear use

S. Korea, US to stage exercise simulating N. Korea’s nuclear use

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · February 17, 2023

South Korea and the United States will stage a tabletop exercise next week to discuss ways to develop a joint strategy and response to North Korea’s potential use of nuclear weapons amid the North’s continuing nuclear saber-rattling.

The discussion-based TTX led by the alliance’s high-level Deterrence Strategy Committee will be conducted on Feb. 22 at the Pentagon in Washington, DC, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said Friday.

The DSC TTX has been co-organized by South Korea’s Defense Ministry and the US Defense Department to discuss and develop contingency plans and response procedures in the event of a nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

But the upcoming TTX has a different significance as Seoul and Washington will put their heads together to specifically seek their optimal policy and military options in case of North Korea’s use of nuclear weapons.

South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in November agreed to include the nuclear use scenario in response to the recent shift in North Korea’s nuclear strategy and advancing nuclear capabilities. North Korea’s rubber-stamp parliament passed a new law that allows a preemptive nuclear strike under certain circumstances in September 2022, pronouncing aggressive and first-use nuclear doctrine.

During the upcoming TTX, South Korea and the US will focus on discussing “how to manage the crisis and take military countermeasures in scenarios of North Korea posing nuclear threats and using nuclear weapons,” according to the Defense Ministry.

South Korea and the US will also have in-depth discussions on various ways to strengthen the viability of US extended deterrence in response to escalating and direct threats from North Korea. Extended deterrence is the US’ commitment to deter or respond to coercion and external attacks on US allies and partners with the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.

The outcomes of the DSC TTX will be reflected in the South Korea-US Tailored Deterrence Strategy, which Seoul and Washington agreed to update and revise before holding the South Korea-US Security Consultative Meeting, to be held later in the year. The TDS is a strategic guideline on the alliance’s deterrence measures and response to better prepare for North Korea’s advancing nuclear and missile threats. However, it has yet to be updated since the allies first signed on in 2013.

The upcoming DSC TTX will be held around three months after the South Korean and US defense chiefs in November agreed to hold the DSC TTX annually. Seoul and Washington have irregularly staged seven DSC TTXs from 2011 to 2021.

South Korean Deputy Minister for National Defense Policy Heo Tae-keun, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia Siddharth Mohandas, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy Richard Johnson and other senior officials will participate in the DSC TTX.

The South Korean and the US delegations will also tour the Kings Bay Naval Submarine Base in Georgia on Feb. 23, which is the east coast home port of Trident nuclear-powered submarines. The tour notably marks the first co-visit by South Korean and US officials to a US base for nuclear-powered submarines.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry underscored that the upcoming tour to the navy base hosting nuclear-powered submarines, which is one component of the US nuclear triad, came after the previous co-trips to the US military bases housing other parts of the US nuclear triad.

The US nuclear triad consists of intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines and nuclear-capable strategic bombers.

The US and South Korean officials previously visited the US bases for ICBMs and strategic bombers on the occasion of bilateral high-level defense talks.

The fifth DSC TTX was held at the Vandenberg Space Force Base on the central coast of California, which was headquarters to Space Launch Delta 30 in 2016. The Delta supports development and evaluation of all ICBMs as well as Missile Defense Agency test and operations. Lee and Austin also toured Joint Base Andrews outside Washington for a briefing and tour of a nuclear-capable B-52 Stratofortress bomber and a B-1B Lancer bomber in November.

By Ji Da-gyum (dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · February 17, 2023

9. It’s too soon to be sure about Kim Jong Un’s successor, experts say

Is Kim playing with us? Is this a deliberate distraction? Is Kim enjoying seeing our speculation and over reaction to events?

It’s too soon to be sure about Kim Jong Un’s successor, experts say

Questions have also been raised about why Kim Jong Un would have put the spotlight on Kim Ju Ae — who is neither his firstborn nor a son

By Seulkee Jang - 2023.02.17 5:42pm

dailynk.com

In this picture published by state-run media on February 9, the Kim family can be soon walking together. (Rodong Sinmun-News 1)

The debate over the successor to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un Kim is heating up after Kim’s daughter, Kim Ju Ae, attended a military parade on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) on Feb. 8.

One of the notable features of the military parade was the emergence of a new slogan about “defending the Mount Paektu Bloodline to the death.” But rather than officially designating Kim Ju Ae as Kim Jong Un’s successor, analysts say, the slogan was probably designed to underscore the permanence of Kim Jong Un’s rule.

NEW SLOGAN EMERGES FROM MILITARY PARADE

A video of the military parade that was broadcast on Korean Central Television on Feb. 9 showed North Korean soldiers chanting the slogans, “Safeguard Kim Jong Un to the death! Defend the Mount Paektu Bloodline to the death!”

The second of those slogans has never been chanted at any previous military parades in North Korea, a matter that even drew attention from North Korean cadres. That means that this military parade served to show people inside North Korea that the KPA’s duty of protection has been extended from the supreme leader to the Mount Paektu Bloodline as a whole.

“This was a public revelation of the fact that the military, which is a pivotal force for propping up the North Korean regime, is playing a key role in guarding the succession to the fourth generation,” said Oh Gyeong-seob, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

According to Oh, the North Korean authorities made clear through this military parade that they mean to hand over power to the fourth generation of the Kim dynasty.

Other analysts say that this military parade was focused on underscoring the permanence of the North Korean regime in a broader sense than fourth-generation succession.

“Kim Jong Un’s recent actions and official documents published in North Korea keep emphasizing the permanence of the single leader principle, which is something we hadn’t seen before. The thrust is that the Mount Paektu Bloodline system, based on Kim Jong Un’s family, will continue in the long term, and this military parade is part of that context,” said an analyst on North Korea, who spoke to Daily NK on condition of anonymity.

That emphasis was also evident in remarks that Kim made during a speech on a visit to the party’s Central Cadres Training School in October 2022.

“We need to establish the demeanor and ethos of the Workers’ Party that will last for a hundred years or a thousand years,” Kim said. “The Workers’ Party will raise up competent political workers and cadres to whom we can safely entrust affairs over the next 50 years, 100 years and centuries to come.”

TOO SOON TO BE SURE ABOUT SUCCESSOR

Regardless, the prevailing view among experts is that it is too soon to regard Kim Ju Ae as Kim’s successor.

“Kim Ju Ae is only a figure who symbolizes the Mount Paektu Bloodline and succession to the fourth generation. It would not be appropriate to make judgements about whether or not she will be the successor based on her attendance at a string of recent events,” Oh said.

“Kim Ju Ae’s appearance at events related to North Korea’s nuclear program has greatly increased external interest in the North Korean regime. From North Korea’s point of view, Kim Ju Ae has been a fantastic promotional model as it emphasizes once more to the outside world that it will never abandon its nuclear program for the sake of its future generation,” he added.

In Oh’s opinion, Kim Ju Ae’s appearance at nuclear-related events is supposed to reveal to both domestic and international audiences that North Korea is a nuclear weapon state in both word and deed.

Questions have also been raised about why Kim Jong Un would have put the spotlight on Kim Ju Ae — who is neither his firstborn nor a son — if he has started laying the foundation for continuing dynastic rule.

“Given the absolute authority of the ruler in North Korea, the crucial criterion for disclosing matters related to the succession is whether or not they will benefit the ruling system,” said Kim In-tae, a senior analyst at South Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy.

“Given that [efforts to promote] the cult of personality around leader Kim Jong Un is currently underway, Kim Ju Ae is being used as a symbol of future generations, rather than being [designated as] the successor.”

Translated by David Carruth. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com

10. China begins limited campaign to vaccinate N. Korean defectors

This seems to be an unusual development.

China begins limited campaign to vaccinate N. Korean defectors

The campaign for defectors is limited to just some cities in a handful of provinces and autonomous regions

By Jeong Tae Joo - 2023.02.17 5:00pm

dailynk.com

A marker delineating the border between China and North Korea (Wikimedia Commons)

North Korean defectors in some parts of China have recently been given access to COVID-19 vaccines, Daily NK has learned.

A Daily NK source in China said Tuesday that disease control agencies in some cities of Heilongjiang and Heilongjiang provinces and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region are providing vaccination shots to North Korean defectors in cooperation with local police agencies.

Most defectors in China have been ignored by the Chinese government in a national campaign to vaccinate its population against COVID-19.

Daily NK’s source said that in some cities of Heilongjiang and Heilongjiang provinces, disease control agencies are working with police offices, which are handing over the personal information of North Korean defectors illegally residing in their jurisdictions.

Of the defectors reported to the disease control agencies by the police, local authorities are providing vaccinations to female defectors who live with Chinese nationals at known addresses.

The source said some defectors in these cities have even received their third vaccinations.

In Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, disease control agencies in some cities have said they will provide vaccinations to not only North Korean women living with men at known addresses, but also to male North Korean defectors who have been hiding in the mountains and steppes.

FILE PHOTO: View into North Korea from across the Tumen River in China’s Jilin Province. (Daily NK)

The source said the defectors are receiving Chinese-made vaccines, and that for defectors living in China without IDs, such vaccinations are the most they can hope for.

In fact, Chinese police authorities in regions that are vaccinating defectors are telling undocumented defectors that the shots are being given out “courtesy of the Chinese Communist Party,” and that they “must not abandon their husbands and children to run away to South Korea or engage in crimes while in contact [with people] in North Korea.”

The police authorities further told the defectors they must “live well without causing problems.”

Some of the vaccinated defectors are expressing skepticism about the efficacy of Chinese vaccines, saying that because the jabs are ineffective, they “must receive five or six shots, not just three.”

However, the source said defectors are getting the Chinese vaccinations, albeit warily, saying that the jabs are “still better than receiving no shots at all.”

China’s vaccination campaign for defectors is limited to just some cities in a handful of provinces and autonomous regions, rather than part of a national policy handed down by the central government. As a result, many North Korean defectors in China likely remain without access to vaccines.

Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com

11. S. Korea to introduce 'anti-drone' system to key facilities

Necessary.

S. Korea to introduce 'anti-drone' system to key facilities

koreaherald.com · by Lee Jung-youn · February 17, 2023

Published : Feb 17, 2023 - 18:03 Updated : Feb 17, 2023 - 18:03

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo presides at the 16th National Counter Terrorism Committee meeting held at the Government Complex Seoul, Friday. (Yonhap)

The South Korean government on Friday announced its plan to introduce an "anti-drone system" to prevent terrorist attacks from targeting key national facilities with drones.

The meeting of the 16th National Counter Terrorism Committee, convened by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, approved the government's plan of deploying the anti-drone system to key facilities, including oil refineries and power plants, in stages of order of importance.

The government will also seek to actively support and promote research and development of anti-drone technology and amend related laws and systems to step up South Korea's readiness against potential drone attacks by terrorists.

Han called for the country to strengthen anti-drone capabilities and reinforce preparedness against the malicious use of armed-drones by terrorist organizations, explaining that the government sees terrorism will remain a global threat in light of continuing political unrest in some African countries and the expansion of terrorist groups in the Middle East and Southwest Asia.

In addition, the government decided to establish a new counter-terrorism unit under the auspice of the police in 18 strategically important regions, such as the Ulsan metropolitan city where power plants and oil refineries are stationed.

Other regions include the Gangwon Province borders with North Korea, as well as North Chungcheong Province where the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and Health Technology Administration are based.

By Lee Jung-youn (jy@heraldcorp.com)

12. 10 shocking facts about North Korea you don't know

10 shocking facts about North Korea you don't know

wionews.com

10 interesting facts about North Korea Photograph:(Reuters)

Story highlights

Here are 10 interesting facts about North Korea, an east Asian country which constitutes the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. The communist country is heavily sanctioned by the international community due to its illicit nuclear programme

North Korea, officially known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), is a country located in East Asia. It shares borders with China to the north, Russia to the northeast, and South Korea to the south. Pyongyang is the country's capital city as well as its largest. North Korea is a highly secretive and authoritarian state with a centralised economy and a one-party system. The country has been ruled by the Kim family since its inception in 1948. The current leader is Kim Jong-un, who assumed power in 2011 following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il.

The government tightly controls all aspects of society, including the media, economy, and political system. The country has one of the largest standing armies in the world and has been subject to international sanctions due to its nuclear weapons programme.

Life in North Korea is heavily restricted, with limited freedom of speech, movement, and access to information. The government controls all media outlets and restricts access to the internet. The country is heavily reliant on foreign aid to feed its population, with many North Koreans suffering from malnutrition and other health issues.

Despite its challenges, North Korea has made progress in some areas, including healthcare and education. The country has also made efforts to engage with the international community, including historic summits with South Korea and the United States. However, the country's human rights record remains a significant concern for the international community.

Here are 10 shocking facts about North Korea:

North Korea is a dictatorship: The country has been ruled by the Kim family for over 70 years, with the current leader, Kim Jong-un, assuming power in 2011.
Internet access is heavily restricted: Most North Koreans do not have access to the internet, and those who do are only allowed to visit a limited number of government-controlled websites.
North Korea is one of the most isolated countries in the world: The country has limited trade and diplomatic relations with other countries and tightly controls the movements of its citizens.
The country is heavily militarised: North Korea has one of the largest standing armies in the world, with approximately 1.2 million active military personnel.
The government controls all media: The North Korean government has a monopoly on all media outlets in the country, and citizens are not allowed to access foreign news sources.
Human rights violations are widespread: Human rights groups report widespread abuses, including political prison camps, forced labour, torture, and restrictions on freedom of speech and religion.
North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world: The country has a centrally planned economy and limited trade, resulting in low GDP per capita and widespread poverty.
The government heavily restricts foreign travel: North Koreans are not allowed to travel abroad without government approval, and foreign tourists are heavily monitored and restricted in their movements.
North Korea has a nuclear weapons programme: The country has conducted several nuclear weapons tests and has been subject to international sanctions as a result.
The country is heavily reliant on foreign aid: North Korea is heavily reliant on foreign aid to feed its population, with millions of people suffering from malnutrition and other health issues.

wionews.com

13. Parliamentary committee adopts resolution marking 70th anniversary of S. Korea-U.S. alliance

Parliamentary committee adopts resolution marking 70th anniversary of S. Korea-U.S. alliance

The Korea Times · February 17, 2023

Lawmakers of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee attend a committee plenary meeting at the National Assembly, Feb. 17. Yonhap

The National Assembly's foreign affairs committee on Friday passed a resolution calling for further strengthening the alliance between South Korea and the United States to mark the 70th anniversary of the alliance.

"The National Assembly reaffirms that the S. Korea-U.S. alliance was the foundation for the Republic of Korea's democratization and economic growth and continues to function as a linchpin of peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula, the region and the world," the resolution said.

"We make clear, internally and externally, the need to reciprocally expand and improve the alliance for mutual prosperity in line with the 70th anniversary of the alliance," it said.

The resolution also calls on the two governments to bolster cooperation in fields like semiconductors, artificial intelligence and space technology as well as work together to stabilize the global supply chain as an "economic security and technology alliance."

It also expressed concern over North Korea's escalating nuclear and missile threats and called for the alliance to effectively deter such threats while working to bring peace through dialogue with the North.

Also included in the resolution was stepping up legal and policy support for the "global strategic comprehensive alliance" agreed by President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden last year and strengthening parliamentary exchange between the two countries.

South Korea and the U.S. signed their mutual defense treaty in October 1953, months after the end of the three-year Korean War. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · February 17, 2023

14. Tilting to US, S Korea ends era of ‘strategic ambiguity’

I know many national security professionals in South Korea who argue the "tilt" occurred in 1953 when the ROK and US signed the Mutual Defense Treaty. There is no ambiguity in the alliance.

Tilting to US, S Korea ends era of ‘strategic ambiguity’

Seoul’s responses to Chinese maritime actions in 2023 will show exact nature of the clear but delicate tilt

asiatimes.com · by David Scott · February 17, 2023

With the year-end release of its Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region, South Korea adopted specific Indo-Pacific terminology. And it’s worth studying in some detail.

The key takeaway: The SFPPIP and President Yoon Suk-yeol have signaled an end to South Korea’s “strategic ambiguity” under the previous president, Moon Jae-in. Seoul is pivoting away from Beijing and toward Washington – delicately, but clearly.

This “Free, Peaceful Prosperous Indo-Pacific” formulation from South Korea converges with the US and Japanese “free and open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) terminology enunciated since 2016-17.

The key shared element is the SFPPIP assertion that “in realizing the vision for a free Indo-Pacific, the Republic of Korea is committed to partnering with like-minded countries that share the values of freedom, rule of law and human rights as well as international norms.” This indicates a normative base for foreign policy.

Much of the SFPPIP is uncontroversial, such as cooperation across the Indo-Pacific on economic, environmental, counterterrorism and international crime issues.

The SFPPIP identifies ASEAN as a “key partner” for peace and prosperity and notes wider formats for economic cooperation such as Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the Regional and Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

However, the SFPIPPR, released December 28, 2022, also displays sharpness of purpose on the security front.

First, it announces pursuit of “partnerships with minilateral groupings” – specifically, the South Korea-Japan-US trilateral, a future Australia-South Korea-US trilateral and the AP4 (Australia-Japan-New Zealand-South Korea) NATO Partners format.

Second, the SFPPIP singles out continued participation in the (US-led) RIMPAC exercises, as well as Pacific Dragon (Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, United States) naval exercises.

On the minilateral front, the SFPPIP says that South Korea will “gradually expand” cooperation with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (“Quad”) between Australia, India, Japan and the United States.

During 2022, Chinese state media attacked South Korea over such participation – warning in April with regard to the Quad, in July with regard to the AP4 format at NATO and trilateral cooperation with Washington and Tokyo and in August regarding the Pacific Dragon exercises in the Western Pacific.

On the bilateral front, the SFPPIP is careful but revealing. It states:

Our inclusive Indo-Pacific Strategy neither targets nor excludes any specific nation. We will work with every partner that is aligned with our vision and principles of cooperation.

This is conditional inclusivity; China falls short in specific normative values enunciated in the SFPPIP vision and principles. Mounting distrust of China in South Korea cuts across the SFPPIP linkage that “our partnerships will be based on strong mutual trust.”

In bilateral relations, the SFPPIP focus is to “continue to strengthen our alliance with the United States.” It identifies Canada as “a comprehensive strategic partner with common values” and Australia as “a comprehensive strategic partner” with which South Korea further “deepen[s] our ties by identifying new cooperation agenda in the areas of national defense.”

It makes a similar pledge to “advance our special strategic partnership with India, a leading regional partner with shared values.” Concerning Japan, despite previous frictions, it aspires to “seek a forward-looking partnership that supports our common interests and values.”

Security convergence with those countries is predicated by their shared values; namely democracy, the rule of international law, and norms embedded in the “free” component within the SFPPIP formulation.

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol in Bali, Indonesia, November 15, 2022. Photo: Xinhua / Zhang Ling

In the wake of a strained Yoon-Xi Summit in November, the SFPPIP’s China section came out as one sentence. It proposes that with China,

a key partner for achieving prosperity and peace in the Indo-Pacific region, we will nurture a sounder and more mature relationship as we pursue shared interests based on mutual respect and reciprocity, guided by international norms and rules.

This language is limited and revealing. To hope for a sounder and more mature relationship in the future implies the current relationship is rather unsound. A “partner for peace” is strained given that the SFPPIP’s “peace” section pinpoints the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait as (China-related) flash points threatening peace, with freedom of navigation specifically called for. Talk of guidance via international norms and rules raises the question of a China not guided by universal norms and rules.

“A partner in prosperity” points to potential economic cooperation – for which the SFPPIP advocates resuming the China-Japan-South Korea Summit, which last met in 2019, and reinforcing the CJSK Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat, to focus on green and digital transitions. This reflects the weakness and marginality of the CJSK mechanism.

Some China-related barbs are discernible in the SFPPIP. On the one hand, the SFPPIP contains no reference to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, from which South Korea has distanced itself. On the other hand, the SFPPIP describes South Korean participation in the launching of the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) in 2022 – an initiative denounced in China – as “building economic security networks … in support of open and free trade.”

The SFPPIP states that, “to stabilize supply chains of strategic resources, we will seek cooperation with partners with whom we share values.” This values-driven rationale points to the Indo-Pacific supply chain initiatives developed by the Quad countries and, again, denounced by China. Trilateral cyber-security cooperation with the United States and Australia is another China-related issue arising in the SFPPIP.

Very different responses to the SFPPIP have come from Washington and Beijing. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan immediately welcomed the whole SFPPIP and its focus on shared “universal values” underpinning cooperation.

In contrast, China’s foreign ministry merely “noted” the SFPPIP while warning about Korea being involved in “exclusive coteries,” leaving the Chinese state media to criticize the SFPPIP as South Korea “pivoting towards the US.”

The biggest areas of ambiguity in the SFPPIP rest with South Korea’s reiteration of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. South Korea could, like Washington, consider raising those two issues at regional platforms like the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit.

Naval forces of South Korea, the United States, Japan and Australia engaged in a joint maritime exercise in the Pacific waters near Guam in September 2020. Photo: US Navy

Regarding the South China Sea, Seoul is unlikely to carry out freedom of navigation exercises, although it could consider giving verbal public support to such US operations. Seoul’s increasing deployments and exercises in the West Pacific with the United States and like-minded states such as Japan, Australia and Canada could also be extended into the South China Sea.

Calls by Seoul for observance (meaning China’s observance) of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling on the South China Sea could advance the SFPPIP call for the rule of law in the South China Sea.

Sidestepping the still-uncomfortable US-China confrontation, Seoul could quietly strengthen the maritime capabilities of South China Sea littoral states such as Vietnam and the Philippines which are most under threat from China.

Regarding the Taiwan Strait, although it is unlikely Seoul will deploy its naval units on transit operations there, South Korea could consider giving public verbal support to such US transit operations.

South Korea could strengthen some links with Taiwan. Military-to-military links are probably too much to expect, given the furor that would arise from China. However, the two could maintain political-economic links, including supporting Taiwan’s application for membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Seoul’s responses to Chinese actions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait during 2023 will show the exact nature of the delicate tilt signaled in South Korea’s new Indo-Pacific strategy.

David Scott (davidscott366@outlook.com) is a member of the Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC) and is a prolific writer on Indo-Pacific geopolitics (www.d-scott.com/publications).

This article was originally published by Pacific Forum and is republished with permission.

asiatimes.com · by David Scott · February 17, 2023

15. North Korean-Russian Trade Rebounds, Satellite Images Show

No surprise. I think this has been telegraphed.

North Korean-Russian Trade Rebounds, Satellite Images Show

The two countries are deepening their economic ties as Moscow faces pressure from Western sanctions

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korean-russian-trade-rebounds-satellite-images-show-8423f37b?mod=Searchresults_pos4&page=1

By Dasl YoonFollow

Feb. 17, 2023 7:00 am ET

SEOUL—Trade at the main railroad crossing between Russia and North Korea has rebounded in recent months to prepandemic levels, as the Ukraine war leads to deepening economic ties between the two countries.

Satellite imagery of railroad traffic at the Tumangang-Khasan crossing shows increased transfers of coal, oil and other goods, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.

“The uptick in railway traffic is not a coincidence,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at CSIS, who co-wrote the report. “North Korea is trying to take advantage of the fact that Russia needs help with the war in Ukraine.”

The railroad crossing identified in the report is the same one that U.S. officials say North Korea used in November to ship infantry rockets and missiles to Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary force. In January, Washington released satellite images that U.S. officials said showed the arms transfers. North Korea will likely continue to supply Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. North Korea and Russia have denied the arms transaction.

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The Ukraine war has handed North Korea an opportunity to improve ties with Russia, as the pandemic and sanctions have further increased its isolation and put a strain on its already weak economy. Pyongyang can obtain foreign currency and fuel shipments from Moscow, as well as a lenient attitude toward the enforcement of United Nations sanctions, said Naoko Aoki, an associate political scientist at Rand Corp., a think tank based in California. That is particularly important as North Korea seeks to procure technology needed for its nuclear and missile programs, she said.

“North Korea benefits from this type of global instability,” Ms. Aoki said.

The deepening trade ties with Russia serve to support North Korea as the country is making advances in its weaponry. North Korea carried out a record number of missile tests last year, and leader Kim Jong Un vowed in December to expand his nuclear arsenal exponentially.

Pyongyang has increased its stockpile of plutonium for nuclear weapons, according to a white paper published on Friday by South Korea’s Defense Ministry. Pyongyang possessed about 44 additional pounds of plutonium in 2022—enough for about a dozen nuclear warheads—up from a total estimated stockpile of 110 pounds in 2020.

Most of North Korea’s trade has historically been with China, but Russia has also been an important partner, particularly when it comes to oil. Trade between North Korea and Russia amounted to about $48 million in 2019, with petroleum products accounting for the largest portion of North Korea’s imports, according to the International Trade Centre. Trade between the countries dropped to about $43 million in 2020 and plummeted to near zero in 2021, according to Russian customs data, as North Korea shut its borders during the pandemic. The data doesn’t account for illicit trade, and Russia stopped releasing import and export data in April of last year.

In September, a Russian Foreign Ministry official said Moscow would resume oil exports to North Korea if Pyongyang requested it, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti. International sanctions cap North Korean petroleum imports at 500,000 barrels a year, but the U.N. has long accused Pyongyang of obtaining oil via illicit ship-to-ship transfers.

Recent satellite images show railcars carrying petroleum on the North Korean side of the border and cars carrying ore on the Russian side of the border, according to the CSIS report. The petroleum cars can be identified because of their long cylindrical tanks; the ore cars are rectangular with open tops. Other cars were closed, concealing their contents.

The satellite images reviewed by CSIS, which were taken between November and January, don’t appear to show the same railcars seen in the images released by Washington, the report said. Nonetheless, increased rail traffic at the border suggests Russia is turning to North Korea for help offsetting economic sanctions and supplies of munitions, the report said. Moscow didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

How Russia-North Korea Relations Have Deepened During Ukraine War