Economist weighs in on the national economy
Economist Alfie Meek spoke with business people and city leaders in Duluth on Thursday, Feb. 16 during an Economic Outlook sponsored by Partnership Gwinnett.
Dr. Meek spoke about labor force participation and suggested it hasn't fully bounced back after Covid. The labor rate for those in the prime working age has come back but a lot of older workers retired during Covid, he said, adding we are still below trend on labor force numbers. Payroll numbers appear strong because so many people are taking second, part-time jobs. He said household, full-time jobs are down.
"People started re-evaluating their lives. Attitudes toward work is shifting," he said. "People just want to get the job done and are disenchanted with the 9-5 lifestyle," he said. As a result, some companies are labor-hoarding.
As for spending, he said, people are still shopping and spending, but not from a strong position. Revolving debt is growing. He said consumers are tapped. Consumers are paying record prices for eggs, which are used in a lot of other foods.
"When Guinness hikes beer prices in Ireland, that says something," he said. The cost of services is going up as well.
"Nominal wages are okay, but real wages are going down," he said.
Dr. Meek anticipates an economic downturn in 2023. He is not convinced we are past the inflation hurdle. As for fixing the labor market, he said not everyone should be on a college path. He urged more of an emphasis on the trades.
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