Newsletter - October 2023

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The Global Update Blog

Harnessing the 5-8-13 EMA (Exponential Moving Average)

The 5-8-13 Exponential Moving Average combination is a favored tool among day traders, providing a responsive and precise insight into fast moving markets... While the SMA gives equal importance to all prices, the EMA emphasizes the most recent prices...


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Does OPEC's Extended Production Cuts Present a Possible Opportunity?

Saudi Arabia and Russia extend oil production cuts till the end of 2023... Production cuts are likely to send oil prices to even higher levels. Plus, the cuts will likely impact global economies, and possibly lead to more strain on consumers & businesses...


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Upcoming Government Reports & Holidays

OCT 02

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OCT 12

OCT 16

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OCT 25

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OCT 26

OCT 31

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING REPORT

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES & ORDERS - FULL REPORT

US INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS & SERVICES

EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT

MONTHLY WHOLESALE TRADE: SALES & INVENTORIES

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX REPORT

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX REPORT

BUSINESS FORMATION STATISTICS

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES REPORT

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE: INVENTORIES & SALES REPORT

NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION REPORT

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES REPORT

ADVANCE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS - MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS...

PRELIMINARY US IMPORTS FOR CONSUMPTION OF STEEL PRODUCTS

HOUSING VACANCIES & HOMEWOWNERSHIP

View Our Full Economic Calendar

Key Events That Moved the Market in September 2023

The following is a review of US and world events from the last month. Please be advised that this content is based upon the opinions and research of GFF Brokers and its staff and should not be treated as trade recommendations.



S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Daily Chart - September 1-28, 2023 (Source: Tradingview)


September 1

September started with a relatively positive end to the week with the major averages in the green. The Dow went up around 115 points, the S&P gained 0.18%, but the Nasdaq was in the negatives albeit near the flatline with a 0.07% loss for the day. Signs of a cooling labor market helped quell inflationary fears while crude oil prices tick up with their respective stocks.


September 5

Pressured by higher bond yields, a sagging market commences the week with industrial and consumer spending stocks underplaying for the day. In a somewhat reversed situation of the previous day, the Dow loses 195 points, the S&P declines by 0.42%, but the Nasdaq ekes out a 0.11% gain. A majority of stocks declined this Tuesday while the 10-year Treasury Yield once again hit highs that caused equity investors to hesitate.


September 6

With Apple shares having a setback and bond yields once again ascending the stock market is put under heat for the day. Dow stocks declined by about 198 points, the S&P lost 0.70%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq went down 0.88%. New laws in China that restrict the use of iPhones put pressure on Apple, which was a major factor in the market's direction on Wednesday.


September 7

A choppy start to September is apparent with Wall Street continuing to be weighted by Apple stocks and bond yields. The Dow managed to rise 57 points whereas the S&P and Nasdaq lost 0.32% and 0.73% respectively. Apple continued to decline bringing down the S&P and Nasdaq while mixed data regarding wage inflation and Federal Reserve speakers alluding to upcoming work regarding price stability gives consumer confidence a challenge.


September 8

Despite stocks closing the week on a note of modest gains, the major averages were ultimately in the red by the close. With modesty being a common trait this Friday, the Dow went up 75 points while both the S&P and Nasdaq went up by 0.14%. Tech stocks found solace from the pressure that bond yields created with Apple and Microsoft stocks staging a rebound for the day.


September 11

Wall Street was painted green once again though this time with a bit less modesty as tech stocks carried the market for the day. The Dow rose by 87 points, the S&P went up about 0.67%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 1.19%. The S&P managed to regain around half of the previous week’s deficits while investors await a major apple launch event and important data pertaining to inflation.


September 12

Stocks broke off from gains and instead headed in the opposite direction with the Dow drifting lower by 17 points, the S&P going down 0.57%, and the Nasdaq losing 1.11% this Tuesday. Energy and bank stocks took the spotlight for the day while tech stocks sustained losses mainly due to Oracle shares being pulled down with other cloud competitors following it. Apple unveiled its upcoming products with the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro new air pods being revealed to the public.


September 13

The market was mixed due to a subdued reaction regarding inflation data coming hot out of the oven. Dow stocks suffered a 70-point loss while the S&P eked out a 0.12% gain and a 0.38% win went to Nasdaq. CPI readings went up to a 3.7% annual rate because of an anticipated increase in energy with core CPI ticking higher as well.


September 14

This week, Wall Street experienced a notable rebound, driven by solid economic data and major tech IPOs. The Dow closed up 331 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq also saw favorable gains, rising 0.84% and 0.82% respectively. The day began positively with high wholesale prices and stable core prices boosting investor optimism and spurring a market rally.


September 15

Wall Street recently concluded a turbulent trading week in the red, erasing the gains of the previous day. The Dow plunged by 288 points, and both the S&P and Nasdaq experienced significant losses, with the former declining by 1.22% and the latter by 1.75%. The turmoil in Nasdaq tech stocks throughout the week, driven by recent data, suggested possible rising inflation.


September 18

Stocks started the week with the major averages receiving meager gains and ending relatively near the flatline. The Dow went up a meager 6 points the the S&P going up 0.07% and the Nasdaq drifting 0.15% higher. With an upcoming FOMC meeting, investors decide to take a cautionary approach.


September 19

Breaking off from stagnation, stocks start to move downward with rates ticking higher and investors bracing for the Federal Reserve meeting. The Dow went down by 106 points while the S&P declined by 0.22%, the Nasdaq also down by 0.22%. Trading was largely pared down with inflation and growth fears resurging and pressuring consumer confidence.


September 20

Following a hawkish pause from the Federal Reserve, stocks continued to decline. While the Dow went down 76 points, the S&P (-0.94%) and Nasdaq (-1.84%) had more pronounced losses. The Federal Reserve stated their intentions to keep interest rates higher for some time.


September 21

Extending the previous day’s selloff, the market once again sustained losses. The Dow sank by around 370 points, the S&P fell down 1.64%, and the Nasdaq finished the day 1.84% lower. Bonds shook the market the most this Thursday with the 10-year Treasury Yield spiking to fresh highs following more hawkish talk from the Federal Reserve.


September 22

Wall Street wrapped up a loss-filled week with even more losses, though this time a bid more modest. The Dow fell another 106 points with the S&P declining by 0.23% and the Nasdaq actually eking out a 0.05% gain. While the market still recovers from significantly high bond yields and hawkish Federal Reserve members, the latest roster of IPO’s signal that the great IPO reopening will not occur in October.


September 25

Stocks were rather silent to start off the week with the Dow nearly flat at a 40-point gain, the S&P up 0.40%, and the Nasdaq also near that range with a 0.46% increase. From a monthly viewpoint, both the S&P and Nasdaq are poised to experience one of the most challenging months of the year, reinforcing the notion of September as one of the more unfavorable trading months. This period is characterized by elevated rates, which exert additional pressure on the major averages. Persistently high rates engender competition with stocks, usually culminating in declines for both rates and stocks.


September 26

With negative consumer confidence and housing data taking effect on the market, stocks took a dive. The Dow stock plummeted by around 388 points, the S&P traded down 1.47%, and the Nasdaq ended the day 1.51% lower. The number of homes under contract fell by around 9% in August. This, along with remarks from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who alluded to the prospect of much higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which he said would put further stress on the banking system, has caused concern in the housing market.


September 27

Though managing to avoid lows, the market struggled to stay afloat amid rising interest rates. The Dow went down 68 points while the Nasdaq eked out a 0.24% gain and the S&P remained near the flatline with a rise of 0.02%. Markets are searching for a reason to recover, but there is no evidence to support such a move, and there are no clear signals that the bear market has bottomed out.



September 28

Despite rising rates that never cease to burden the market, stocks managed to find temporary solace through weaker second quarter GDP revisions and softer housing market data. All major averages basked in green with the Dow up 116 points, the S&P rising by 0.59%, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.84% higher. A handful of stocks showed oversold conditions and 10-year treasury yields are hitting 15-year highs. 

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There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures, options and forex. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Margins are subject to change at anytime without notice. All material herein was compiled from sources considered reliable. However, there is no expressed or implied warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this material. 


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