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Quotes of the Day:
“Purposeful, reflective judgment which manifests itself in reasoned consideration of the evidence, context, methods, standards, and conceptualization in deciding what to believe or what to do.”
- Peter Facione, The Delphi Project
“If you are emotionally attached to your tribe, religion or political leaning to the point that truth and justice become secondary considerations, your education is useless. Your exposure is useless. If you cannot reason beyond petty sentiments, you are a liability to mankind.”
- Dr. Okadigbo Chuba, a Nigerian philosopher, political scientist, and academic
A Japanese proverb says, “If you believe everything you read, you better not read.” Interpretation: "Or you need to question why you believe everything you read.”
- Thinknetic
1. In letter to North Korea's Kim, China's Xi calls for communication, unity and cooperation
2. Xi says China, N. Korea should further cooperate amid complex security dynamics
3. ‘Warmbiers’ win pivotal in fight against North Korea human rights abuses’
4. The North and the Putin factor
5. Korea's state audit agency requests investigation of 20 officials in fisheries official case
6. North Korea’s Kim watching Russia’s Putin closely after nuclear threats
7. Xi Jinping's third term feared to cause uncertain future for Seoul-Beijing ties
8. Poland to buy 300 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers
9. North Korea is testing more missiles than ever before
10. North Korea as a complex humanitarian emergency: Assessing food insecurity
1. In letter to North Korea's Kim, China's Xi calls for communication, unity and cooperation
Closer than lips and teeth?
But there is really no love between China and north Korea. A marriage of some convenience for both.
In letter to North Korea's Kim, China's Xi calls for communication, unity and cooperation
Reuters · by Reuters
SEOUL, Oct 16 (Reuters) - In a letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ahead of a historic congress of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, Chinese President Xi Jinping said it was more important than ever that Beijing and Pyongyang enhance communication, unity and cooperation, North Korea's state media reported on Sunday.
The letter was in response to congratulations Kim sent for the congress, which is scheduled to begin on Sunday. Xi is poised to win a third five-year term as General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party, the most powerful job in the country, at the congress.
Xi expressed willingness to strengthen the relationship between China and North Korea, and "make a great contribution to providing two countries and their people with greater happiness and defending peace and stability in the region and the rest of the world," North Korea state news agency KCNA said.
The reported expression of support comes as North Korea has tested a record number of ballistic missiles and has made preparations to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017.
North Korea says its latest military activities, which have also included artillery drills and flights by warplanes, are in response to displays of force by South Korea and the United States, which have staged their own military drills to protest the North's tests.
When asked on Friday about the latest North Korean moves and South Korea's reactions, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning called on all parties to prevent the situation from escalating and work towards creating the conditions for resuming dialogue.
Reporting by Josh Smith; Editing by Sandra Maler
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Reuters · by Reuters
2. Xi says China, N. Korea should further cooperate amid complex security dynamics
Notethat both want "reunification." Kim acknowledges Chinese desire for domination of Taiwan (it won't be reunification).
Ironically, I recall a former Chinese official at a Track II event telling us that they empathized with Koreans (in this case former officials from the South) who want unification because China wants unification too. The implication was the quid pro quo for Korean unification (under the ROK) was Chinese unification (domination of ) Taiwan. I think the Chinese officials we spoke to knew that Korean unification under northern domination was highly unlikely even as they appear to prop up and help keep Kim in power to maintain the status quo for as long as possible.
Excerpt:
The North Korean leader also reiterated his country’s endorsement of China's resolution on the Taiwan issue. Kim stated that the North Korean party, government and its people will continue to “invariably support the struggle for justice of the Chinese party, government and people to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country and realize its reunification.” China has threatened to use military force to bring self-governing Taiwan under its control.
Xi says China, N. Korea should further cooperate amid complex security dynamics
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · October 16, 2022
Chinese leader Xi Jinping underscored the significance of enhancing bilateral strategic communication and cooperation between China and North Korea in light of complex international and regional security dynamics in his recent letter to North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un, North Korean state media reported Sunday.
The Rodong Sinmun, an organ of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, featured Xi’s letter to Kim and the Party Central Committee's congratulatory letter to China on the front page on the opening day of the weeklong, twice-in-a-decade congress of the Chinese Communist Party.
The letter, dated Oct. 13, highlighted that the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party would be convened “at a very critical juncture” when China has set out on a new journey of “building a modern socialist country” and has sought to achieve its second centenary goal, the Rodong Sinmun said in its Korean-language report.
Xi said the traditional friendship between China and North Korea “has grown stronger over the years” in his reply to Kim’s letter expressing congratulations for China’s 73rd founding anniversary, labeling the two countries as “friendly neighboring countries connected by mountains and rivers."
In the letter, Xi notably underlined the importance of strategically stepping up bilateral cooperation in light of intricate global and regional security dynamics.
“As serious and complex changes are currently taking place in the international and regional situation, the importance of enhancing bilateral strategic communication and strengthening unity and cooperation between China and the DPRK come to greater prominence,” Xi was quoted by the Rodong Sinmun as saying, referring to the North's formal name, Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Xi said he is ready to work with Kim and “make active efforts to give an impetus to advance and develop the traditional friendly and cooperative relations between China and the DPRK under new circumstances, keeping abreast with the times. ”
The Chinese leader expressed his intent to “make a greater contribution to providing two countries and their people with greater happiness and defending peace and stability in the region and the rest of the world.”
North Korea’s Party Central Committee also sent a letter to members of the Chinese Communist Party and Chinese people on Sunday to celebrate the opening of the 20th party congress, the Rodong Sinmun said in a separate Korean-language report.
In the letter, the North Korean ruling party wished Xi success at the party congress, where Xi is widely expected to cement his power in securing a precedent-breaking third term as leader.
The Workers’ Party of Korea expressed confidence that the party congress will be a historic event that “will ensure the victorious advance of socialist China and gird the entire people up to achieve the goal of rejuvenating China by further strengthening the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party with comrade Xi Jinping as its core.”
In the letter, North Korea’s Party Central Committee also underlined that the two parties “have been defending the common interests of the people and the two countries and strongly promoting the cause of socialism while continuing to support and cooperate in an unprecedentedly complex international environment.”
North Korea has publicly and more frequently shown off its resolve to further step up bilateral cooperation with China as intricate regional and global security dynamics have been largely compounded by the intensifying US-China rivalry and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Under such context, North Korean state media outlets have recently issued public statements that show close coordination with China on global and regional issues and denounce the US Indo-Pacific engagement strategy.
North Korean state media also have sought to demonstrate top-level commitment to reinforce bilateral coordination and unity between Beijing and Pyongyang by releasing personal letters exchanged between Kim and Xi.
In the Oct. 1 letter marking the 73rd anniversary of China's founding, Kim told Xi he would “continue to go out of his way to constantly develop the traditionally friendly relations between the DPRK and China and safeguard peace and stability in Asia and the world."
The North Korean leader also reiterated his country’s endorsement of China's resolution on the Taiwan issue. Kim stated that the North Korean party, government and its people will continue to “invariably support the struggle for justice of the Chinese party, government and people to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country and realize its reunification.” China has threatened to use military force to bring self-governing Taiwan under its control.
By Ji Da-gyum (dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · October 16, 2022
3. ‘Warmbiers’ win pivotal in fight against North Korea human rights abuses’
A human rights upfront approach is necessary with north Korea. The Warmbiers are leading the way in one line of effort to hold the regime accountable.
Excerpts:
“The experience of a victory, and the accumulation of such experiences, are important fuel that can keep a movement like this going, and not let it get bogged down by the grueling fight.”
Ha said that the Warmbier family set an example by showing it’s possible to make North Korea pay without necessarily having to get the regime to engage. In 2018, the Warmbiers won a wrongful death suit at a Washington court, which ordered North Korea to pay them more than half a billion dollars in damages.
“For victims of North Korea human rights abuses everywhere, this is a monumental feat,” he said. With the Warmbiers’ court victory, a “new path has been paved for victims to seek compensations,” and that it has “revitalized the movement.”
Cutting the Kim Jong-un regime off its source of income, Ha said, would be the “most effective way” to get North Korea to change its behavior and comply with international human rights standards.
[Herald Interview] ‘Warmbiers’ win pivotal in fight against North Korea human rights abuses’
koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · October 16, 2022
By Kim Arin
Published : Oct 16, 2022 - 18:48 Updated : Oct 16, 2022 - 18:49
Rep. Ha Tae-keung speaks to The Korea Herald at his office at the National Assembly building in Yeouido, central Seoul, last week. (The Korea Herald)
The family of Otto Warmbier has set an important precedent for North Korea victims all over, according to Rep. Ha Tae-keung of the ruling People Power Party.
Speaking with The Korea Herald, the ruling People Power Party Rep. Ha Tae-keung said, “The Warmbier family has played a pivotal role in the fight against North Korea human rights abuses, and their efforts have marked a significant turning point in accountability-seeking.”
About a month ago, Ha met with Cindy and Fred Warmbier, the parents of Otto Warmbier, who died in 2017 after suffering a brain injury while being held prisoner in North Korea. The lawmaker was at the meeting with the Warmbiers alongside Lee Rae-jin, whose younger brother Dae-jun, a South Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries official, was fatally shot by North Korean soldiers at sea in 2020.
Ha said that his “most memorable moment” from his US trip as the chair of the International Parliamentarians’ Coalition for North Korean Refugees and Human Rights last month was the meeting with the two families.
“Oftentimes North Korea human rights movements could feel stunted, and like hollow cries that do not echo, because the North Korean regime would not even flinch,” he said.
“The experience of a victory, and the accumulation of such experiences, are important fuel that can keep a movement like this going, and not let it get bogged down by the grueling fight.”
Ha said that the Warmbier family set an example by showing it’s possible to make North Korea pay without necessarily having to get the regime to engage. In 2018, the Warmbiers won a wrongful death suit at a Washington court, which ordered North Korea to pay them more than half a billion dollars in damages.
“For victims of North Korea human rights abuses everywhere, this is a monumental feat,” he said. With the Warmbiers’ court victory, a “new path has been paved for victims to seek compensations,” and that it has “revitalized the movement.”
Cutting the Kim Jong-un regime off its source of income, Ha said, would be the “most effective way” to get North Korea to change its behavior and comply with international human rights standards.
Ha said he planned on helping more victims seek accountability and receive reparations in the similar way the parents of Warmbier had.
“One of the ways I have proposed is an annual conference held regularly, either online or in person, to gather North Korea human rights violations victims, and to allow them share their experiences at courts and updates on North Korean assets all over the world,” he said.
At the National Assembly, he said he was preparing a legislation for imposing some sanctions on North Korea -- much like the US legislation named after Otto Warmbier.
“The idea is to create more routes for holding North Korea accountable, financially. You wrong us, you pay,” he said. “What can be done in South Korea can only differ from what can be done in the US. We are speaking with the families (of victims) and looking for ways on how to best approach this.”
Ha has been one of the most vocal advocates for North Korea victims in South Korean politics, including the victims in some of the most high-profile controversies when Moon Jae-in was president.
He said how the Moon administration handled North Korea’s killing of the South Korean official and the two North Korean fishermen’s attempted defection in particular had been a “failure in upholding humanitarian and human rights obligations.”
“The administration proved it was capable of trampling on human rights and universal values and principles, as a means to promote its agenda,” Ha said.
Ha said that the case of Lee Dae-jun, the fisheries official who was shot and then burned by North Korean soldiers after he went missing off a patrol ship, was “one of the most fundamental ways the government failed its own citizen.” “After he died, he was defamed by the Moon administration officials who called him a defector,” he said.
Ha headed the People Power Party’s fact-finding task force after the Coast Guard and the Ministry of National Defense in June announced that they found no evidence to prove the late official had tried to defect to North Korea.
Last month, he and fellow South Korean member lawmakers on the International Parliamentarians’ Coalition for North Korean Refugees and Human Rights decided to disclose the identities of two North Korean fishermen who were forcibly repatriated.
“We decided to name them to prevent North Korea from possibly hurting them, if they are still alive. Revealing their identities also humanizes them because it allows people to see them as people, and not just nameless figures in the news,” he said.
“What happened to the young men may be a serious violation of the principle of non-refoulement.”
Ha said what sets the Yoon Suk-yeol adminsitration apart from the preceding administration is where it stands on North Korea and its human rights abuses.
“We are already seeing a significant shift, including an appointment of an ambassador for North Korea human rights issues,” he said.
The Moon administration and his Democratic Party were “weak on North Korea human rights, to say the least.”
Just recently South Korea lost its reelection bid for a membership on the United Nations Human Rights Council for the first time since it held a seat as a founding member in 2006.
Ha said that with Yoon as president, human rights diplomacy was anticipated to “come to the fore.”
“For so long South Korea’s alliance with the US was almost solely concerned on defense and security,” he said. “Under the current administration, building a stronger relationship with the US on the human rights front, too, will be among top priorities.”
By Kim Arin (arin@heraldcorp.com)
4. The North and the Putin factor
Koreans want self defense and independent warfighting capabilities. They should be encouraged and applauded. And while Kim Jong Un is certainly watching Russia and Putin's War closely and learning from it the Koreans in the South are also too.
The author's recommendations are important. A realistic understanding of the threat requires development of strong ("solid") civil defense capabilities which seem to be rarely discussed in Korea. There is no perfect missile defense. Some missiles will get through. That said there is one important point the author omitted in his excellent recommendations. Missile defense of South Korea will be improved through an integrated missile defense system with the US and Japan.
Excerpts:
Putin and Kim both can use nukes preemptively at their discretion to sustain their regimes, not as a means to prevent a war. The two leaders who share dictatorship at the cost of people’s lives and freedom remind us of the “banality of evil,” a term coined by political theorist Hannah Arendt after watching the trial of Nazi SS officer Adolf Eichmann in 1961 (In the trial, Eichmann behaved as an ordinary person after committing atrocities against the Jewish people without feeling any sense of guilt).
The problem is that dictators would commit even graver errors to sooth their misjudgments or policy errors. Undoubtedly, the results will lead to a loss of many innocent lives and to destruction. There is no room for common sense or normal thinking.
What the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and military authorities must do is clear. They must give up the Moon Jae-in administration’s wishful thinking that the government can resolve the nuclear threat through dialogue. What counts most now is the U.S. nuclear umbrella and reinforcement of our military’s ability to cope with the North Korean threat.
The answer must be found in the three defenses against the missile threats: the Kill Chain pre-emptive strike system, the Korean Air and Missile Defense system and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan, not to mention the establishment of a solid civil defense system in South Korea. If the government fails to acquire an ability to remove the North’s nukes — and war commanders — to safeguard the lives of our people, it can neither deter the nuclear threat nor maintain peace on the peninsula.
unday
October 16, 2022
dictionary + A - A
The North and the Putin factor
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/16/opinion/columns/putin-factor/20221016195813404.html?detailWord=
Kim Min-seok
The author is an editorial writer and senior researcher at the Institute for Military and Security Affairs at the JoongAng Ilbo.
Concerns are fast growing over the possibility of Russian President Vladimir Putin using tactical nuclear weapons to turn the tide in the Ukraine war. A number of young Koreans sadly want to leave their country for safer places, citing the possible entanglement of South Korea in an evolving power competition between Russia and the West. Some graduate students have considered heading to politically stable African countries with low risk of war.
At first, I was embarrassed to hear of such shameful cowardice. Their attitude is in sharp contrast to that of their Israeli counterparts studying overseas and rushing to their motherland to fight in the war against Arab states upon learning of an invasion. So I wondered why Korean students wish to flee their homeland. The following is what I learned.
While debating the alarming developments in Eastern Europe, the graduate students, who are enrolled in doctoral courses at universities specializing in defense and security, worried about the likelihood of the Ukraine war spreading to the rest of the world. Their concern primarily originates with Putin’s possible use of tactical nuclear weapons to redeem his reputation in an uphill battle against Ukraine. Some security analysts link Putin’s mobilization and referendums involving residents in occupied territories to the need to build the case for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. They cannot be entirely wrong.
But they went a step further. If Putin uses nuclear weapons to overcome his own crisis, it could lead to a misjudgment by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. If Putin takes a nightmarish path, Kim could follow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands prior to their talks at Far East Federal University in Vladivostok, Russia, April 25, 2019. [EPA/YONHAP]
Chinese President Xi Jinping could be tempted to attack Taiwan after being buoyed by Putin’s move. If the front expands to Taiwan and the Korean peninsula, the United States will have trouble dealing with conflicts on the three fronts at the same time. As this will cause a serious power vacuum on the peninsula, some of the students want to leave the country before it is too late. Despite criticism of their cowardice, the idea of escaping is catching on.
Russia is at a disadvantage in the war. Due to its strategic misjudgment from the start, the country failed to achieve its goal of occupying Ukraine in just three days by neutralizing Ukraine’s cyber capabilities, launching information operations and deploying ground forces. The original miscalculation is the main cause for its struggle in the western border regions.
Instead of getting Ukraine to surrender, Russia faced critical limits to its military operations. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, Russia has lost 80,000 soldiers.
When Russia sends fighter jets to skies over the battlegrounds, they often go down after being shot by anti-aircraft missiles fired by Ukrainian ground forces. Street battles are definitely disadvantageous to Russian forces as Ukrainians are hostile to Russians and rocket launchers and anti-tank missiles are waiting for Russian tanks and armored vehicles at every corner.
The Ukrainian troops are reinforcing their armaments with U.S.-supplied weapons like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (Himars), a light multiple rocket launcher developed in the late 1990s for the U.S. Army. Ukrainian morale goes up steadily while Russia is increasingly on the defensive. As Russia’s economy shakes, Putin’s political standing also can be shaken.
On September 30, less than a day before Russia declared its annexation of the Donbas, Luhansk, Zaporia and Gershon regions, the Ukrainian Army liberated Liman, a strategic point in Donbas. Ukraine forces are also attacking the southern front near Gershon. If Gershon is returned to Ukraine, it affects Crimea, currently occupied by Russia. As Gershon has a canal linking the Dnieper River basin and Crimea, Russia will immediately lose control over a critical water supply.
Probably due to such a sensitive situation, Putin hurriedly declared the annexation of the four regions, including the contested Donbas region. He threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons if the Ukrainian forces advance to the region after branding it as a brazen invasion into its own territory. On October 3, the New York Times reported that a Russian train carrying nuclear equipment had departed for Ukraine.
Under such inflammable circumstances, North Korea on October 4 fired what appeared to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan into the Pacific. The missile flew 4,500 kilometers (2,796 miles) at Mach 17. It was the first such launch since 2017. North Korea’s Hwasong-12 missile can strike Guam, a base for U.S. strategic assets to be deployed to the Korean Peninsula in times of crisis.
North Korea also fired missiles into the East Sea recently while a joint South Korea-U.S. maritime drill was ongoing. In the past, it refrained from missile launches when joint exercises were underway. The recalcitrant state fired missiles on 25 occasions this year alone.
Nuclear force guidelines legislated by the North’s Supreme People’s Assembly on September 8 are alarming. The 11 articles in the guidelines on the mission of its nuclear weapons and conditions for their use stipulated that the nuclear weapons are for “operational missions to achieve a decisive victory in a war by repelling an aggression by the enemy.” The declaration means North Korea can preemptively use nuclear weapons in battle if necessary.
Article 5 stipulates five conditions for using nuclear weapons: when North Korea is attacked by weapons of massive destruction, including nuclear weapons, or such an attack is imminent; when hostile forces launch a nuclear or non-nuclear attack on its leaders or nuclear force commanders; when its major strategic assets are attacked or such an attack is imminent; when nuclear weapons are unavoidable to prevent the escalation or prolongation of a war or to seize the control in war; and when an incident threatening the nation’s survival and people’s lives takes place.
Pyongyang’s stipulation of legal grounds for using a diverse range of nuclear weapons demonstrates its confidence in its nuclear capabilities. According to the RAND Corporation and the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, an independent think tank in South Korea, the North is assumed to possess 67 to 116 nuclear missiles and can produce 12 to 18 each year. If it conducts its seventh nuclear test, it is expected to acquire the ability to produce tactical nuclear weapons for battle.
Putin and Kim both can use nukes preemptively at their discretion to sustain their regimes, not as a means to prevent a war. The two leaders who share dictatorship at the cost of people’s lives and freedom remind us of the “banality of evil,” a term coined by political theorist Hannah Arendt after watching the trial of Nazi SS officer Adolf Eichmann in 1961 (In the trial, Eichmann behaved as an ordinary person after committing atrocities against the Jewish people without feeling any sense of guilt).
The problem is that dictators would commit even graver errors to sooth their misjudgments or policy errors. Undoubtedly, the results will lead to a loss of many innocent lives and to destruction. There is no room for common sense or normal thinking.
What the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and military authorities must do is clear. They must give up the Moon Jae-in administration’s wishful thinking that the government can resolve the nuclear threat through dialogue. What counts most now is the U.S. nuclear umbrella and reinforcement of our military’s ability to cope with the North Korean threat.
The answer must be found in the three defenses against the missile threats: the Kill Chain pre-emptive strike system, the Korean Air and Missile Defense system and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan, not to mention the establishment of a solid civil defense system in South Korea. If the government fails to acquire an ability to remove the North’s nukes — and war commanders — to safeguard the lives of our people, it can neither deter the nuclear threat nor maintain peace on the peninsula.
5. Korea's state audit agency requests investigation of 20 officials in fisheries official case
Sunday
October 16, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Korea's state audit agency requests investigation of 20 officials in fisheries official case
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/16/national/politics/Korea-fisheries-murder/20221016185742341.html?detailWord=
A Democratic Party (DP) committee against political oppression holds a press conference on Friday at the National Assembly, slamming the the Board of Audit and Inspection for becoming a "pawn" of the Yoon Suk-yeol government a day after the institution referred former officials of the previous administration to prosecutors over the killing of a South Korean fisheries official by North Korea in 2020. [YONHAP]
The state audit agency requested the prosecution investigate 20 people, including top security officials of the previous Moon Jae-in administration, on charges of covering up and distorting facts in the killing of a South Korean fisheries official by North Korean soldiers in 2020.
Yet the reason as to why the government did not take any measures to rescue the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries official, Lee Dae-jun, until after he was shot and killed remains unresolved.
The Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) requested the prosecution investigate 20 people from five government agencies involved in the case, on charges including dereliction of duty, abuse of power and falsifying documents.
Among those to be investigated are former National Security Adviser Suh Hoon, former National Intelligence Service Chief Park Jie-won and former Defense Minister Suh Wook.
The BAI accused the authorities of failing to take necessary steps in the initial hours of the case.
According to the BAI, neither the National Security Office (NSO), the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Unification, nor the Coast Guard convened a situation assessment meeting, which is a meeting to determine the direction of crisis response, or took measures to rescue Lee even after learning that the official had been found in North Korean waters.
Lee disappeared while on duty just south of Yeonpyeong Island near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), which serves as the de facto inter-Korean maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea on Sept. 22, 2020. The next day, North Korean soldiers found Lee, fatally shot him and burned his body for fear of Covid-19, according to South Korean defense officials.
In addition, former national security adviser Suh left work to go home while the incident was still developing, and the director of the Unification Ministry at the time also went home without reporting the case to the minister, the BAI said.
The agency failed to unravel the mystery of what actually happened during the three hours from when the case was first reported to the president until Lee was shot dead.
According to the BAI, Moon received a written report from Suh Hoon, former NSO director, that Lee was detected by the North at 6:36 p.m. on Sept. 22. Then the NSO director and other top officials went home at around 7:30 p.m., and, two hours later, Lee was shot dead and burned by North Korean soldiers. At the time, North Korea warned that it would kill border intruders over fears of Covid-19 spreading.
During those three hours, there was no evidence of Moon ordering any government agencies to perform rescue operations: a problem that still remains unsolved as Moon refused to comply with BAI's written investigation.
The BAI also said, after finding out that Lee was killed, that government agencies, including the Security Office, manipulated or deleted documents related to their crisis management.
The BAI concluded that then-Defense Minister Suh ordered the deletion of 60 military intelligence reports after a meeting of related ministers held early on Sept. 23, the day after Lee's death. It added that the National Intelligence Service deleted 46 pieces of data, including intelligence reports, the same day.
The state auditor said that Lee was not voluntarily defecting to North Korea.
The Coast Guard, in particular, was said to have distorted the actual results of an experiment that would have raised the plausibility of Lee naturally drifting across the border, and to have cut-and-pasted opinions from experts in criminal psychology in such a way as to back up their faulty claims.
The BAI judged that the government agencies all readily suggested the voluntary defection of Lee despite insufficient evidence, due to the Blue House National Security Office's nudge to paint a negative picture of Lee.
The BAI also questioned the Defense Ministry’s changed position regarding the incineration of Lee’s body, which the ministry most recently said “needs further investigation.” According to the results of the BAI’s inspection, former President Moon reprimanded the ministry after it issued a statement about Lee’s incineration, saying the statement was “too conclusive.” In other words, the Defense Ministry had said that it was uncertain despite actually knowing that the body had already been burned.
The BAI distributed the results of its inspection through a 20-page press release last Thursday.
The BAI conducted audits through various channels, but failed to conduct investigations into some key officials.
It demanded an attendance of the key officials including the former National Security Adviser and former National Intelligence Service chief, but they all refused. Moon expressed displeasure at the board’s attempts for a written investigation, calling them "rude."
BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]
6. North Korea’s Kim watching Russia’s Putin closely after nuclear threats
North Korea’s Kim watching Russia’s Putin closely after nuclear threats
thethaiger.com · by Ann Carter · October 14, 2022
North Korea’s leader is observing the moves of Russia as it moves toward normalising nuclear threats. The government has set off more than 40 missile launches this year while threatening pre-emptive nuclear strikes on Washington and Seoul, world leaders say it may be looking at Russia as its inspiration. As Russia is a nuclear-armed member of the UN Security Council, Putin raised the prospect of using tactical nukes to turn around battleground setbacks in Ukraine.
According to the South China Morning Post, such normalisation of nuclear threats has experts like Sung-Yoon Lee, of Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, worried.
“Putin and Kim feed off each other, routinising the right to nuke a peaceful neighbour by repeating it without repercussion. Putin’s threats sound more credible than Kim’s, as there is bloodshed in Ukraine every day. But Kim’s threats must not be dismissed as empty bluster.”
As Kim Jong-un has overseen a record number of missile launches this year, there are signs that North Korea is becoming more aggressive in making its nuclear bombs at the forefront of its military. According to North Korean media, the recent missile launches were meant to simulate the use of its tactical battlefield nuclear weapons to hit and wipe out potential US and South Korean targets.
The state media went further yesterday by announcing that the tests of long-range cruise missiles were described by Kim as being a successful demonstration of his military’s expanding nuclear strike capabilities and readiness for “actual war.” Park Wongon, a professor of North Korea studies at Seoul’s Ewha Woman’s University, echoed the thoughts of other experts concerning North Korea’s intentions.
“North Korea has been clearly emulating Putin’s approach in his war on Ukraine while using it as a window to accelerate arms development.”
As Russia has experienced a string of defeats in Ukraine, Park says Putin could be tempted to explode a tactical nuclear weapon to avoid a defeat that may undermine his power. The political impact of such a move would be considered monstrous as it would be the first time that nuclear weapons have been used since World War II.
Ann Carter
Ann Carter is an award-winning journalist from the United States with over 12 years experience in print and broadcast news. Her work has been featured in America, China and Thailand as she has worked internationally at major news stations as a writer and producer. Carter graduated from the Walter Williams Missouri School of Journalism in the USA.
7. Xi Jinping's third term feared to cause uncertain future for Seoul-Beijing ties
Xi Jinping's third term feared to cause uncertain future for Seoul-Beijing ties
The Korea Times · by 2022-10-16 14:23 | World · October 16, 2022
Chinese President Xi Jinping waves as he arrives for the opening session of the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in Beijing, Sunday. AFP-Yonhap
China likely to increase support for North Korea
By Kang Seung-woo
Chinese President Xi Jinping's precedent-defying third team in power, which will be confirmed during the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) week-long Congress that kicked off on Sunday, is casting a shadow over the Korean Peninsula.
South Korea-China relations are already facing looming tensions, with Seoul in favor of U.S.-led value-based diplomacy against Beijing's assertiveness, according to diplomatic observers, Sunday.
In addition, the continued tenure of Xi as the leader of China is likely to put a damper on efforts directed toward resolving North Korea's nuclear issue, they added.
The national congress will end Oct. 22. Xi is widely expected to win a third five-year term there as the general secretary of the Chinese Community Party.
"In general, Xi's third term will not play a positive role in advancing South Korea-China ties at all," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.
Park said Xi's third term will likely see rising authoritarianism and assertive foreign policies. Thus, the United States will likely seek to bolster its alliance with its allies and like-minded liberal democracies against China, he said.
"Under the conditions of an intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China, there is little room for South Korea to maneuver," he added.
Xi talks up security, reiterates COVID stance as congress opens
The U.S. is a staunch ally of South Korea, while China is its largest trading partner.
Chung Jae-hung, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute, said it would not be easy to predict whether Seoul-Beijing ties will be better than now after Xi is reappointed for a third term because the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has shown signs of moving closer to the U.S.' anti-China foreign policy, a shift from predecessor Moon Jae-in's "balanced diplomacy" approach amid the U.S.-Sino rivalry. For instance, South Korea is now participating in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), an economic initiative to counter China's influence in the region.
"When Xi's new term begins, the competition between the U.S. and China will further intensify and in that sense, there will be some challenges that will put Korea-China relations to the test in the future," Chung said.
"Be that as it may, we cannot depart from the U.S. side and suddenly take a neutral stance," Chung said.
The issue of North Korea's nuclear program is once again coming to the fore as it is fully prepared to conduct a seventh nuclear test, according to the South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities, with many raising calls for China to strengthen its role in resolving the nuclear problem because Beijing is North Korea's sole economic pipeline and diplomatic guardian.
However, experts are skeptical of China playing a role in denuclearizing North Korea.
"North Korea will be happy about Xi's third term because of the birth of another one-man dictatorship like itself. In that respect, their ties are likely to strengthen and China will be more supportive of North Korea, which will make it more difficult to stabilize the Korean Peninsula and denuclearize North Korea," Park said.
Recently, North Korea carried out multiple provocations by test-firing missiles and staging military drills near the inter-Korean border, but China remained quiet over them.
Park said that even if North Korea carries out a seventh nuclear test, China will not likely take issue with it.
"When North Korea broke its self-imposed moratorium on missile and nuclear tests in March by firing an intercontinental ballistic missile, China did not protest it and the stance will continue this time in the event of a nuclear test," he added.
Chung said China and South Korea remain far apart over how to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, meaning that it will not be easy to find momentum on the issue.
"As for the recent North Korean provocations, China's stance is that the U.S. should change its behavior toward North Korea, while the South Korean government is accusing the North of increasing tensions," he said.
In response to growing North Korean nuclear threats, there are some calls among South Koreans that Seoul should acquire its own nuclear weapons or reintroduce U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the peninsula.
"If the matter further develops, China will take issue with it, creating more tensions between them," Chung said.
The Korea Times · by 2022-10-16 14:23 | World · October 16, 2022
8. Poland to buy 300 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers
A member of the arsenal of democracy makes an important contribution.
Poland to buy 300 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers
The Korea Times · October 16, 2022
K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers in this 2019 file photo / Korea Times file
By Kang Hyun-kyung
Poland will purchase nearly 300 K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers from Korea and the artillery weapon system will be provided to the European country by next year, according to a Polish media outlet.
In a media interview on Oct. 14th, Polish Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said negotiations between Poland and South Korea had been completed and a contract will be signed during his visit to South Korea next week.
"It's an excellent artillery weapon and based on our observations from the war in Ukraine we can clearly see how much advantage artillery can create on the battlefield," Blaszczak was quoted as saying in an interview with local news site I.PL.
His remarks came after Ukraine was able to change the course of the war against Russia after the use of M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System or HIMARS in late June and early July. The missiles have been used to hit Russian targets, such as bridges that Russia occupied during the war, and command posts.
Poland's ruling conservative Law and Justice Party, in power since fall 2015, has been strengthening the country's armed forces in response to neighboring Russia's policies and actions.
The K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launcher was developed by both Hanwha Corporation and Doosan DST: The rocket was developed by Hanwha and the launcher by Doosan.
The Chunmoo is a multi-caliber rocket system and the rockets can be fired from the same platform but have different ranges.
Last year, the Polish government announced a plan to purchase 500 HIMARS launchers from the United States. But the plan has been adjusted since then.
"We're aware that we will not receive all 500 HIMARS launchers, for which we have sent a letter of request, within a timeline that would be satisfactory for us," the Polish defense minister said, noting that the Polish government, therefore, decided to purchase both the HIMARS and the Chunmoo.
Minister Blaszczak will arrive in Seoul on Monday. South Korea and Poland are expected to sign a contract during his Seoul visit.
The news came months after the two countries agreed on a $5.8-billion contract in August for Hyundai Rotem to sell tanks and Hanwha Defense to provide howitzers to Poland.
The Korea Times · October 16, 2022
9. North Korea is testing more missiles than ever before
North Korea is testing more missiles than ever before
Axios · by Dave Lawler · October 14, 2022
Data: CSIS Missile Threat, Axios; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios
North Korea tested yet another ballistic missile on Friday, launched a barrage of rockets near the border with South Korea, and flew warplanes so close to South Korean territory that Seoul scrambled jets of its own in response, South Korea's military says.
Why it matters: North Korea is testing missiles at an unprecedented rate this year. U.S. and South Korean officials are still awaiting a seventh nuclear test, which they believe could take place at any time.
- Kim Jong-un personally oversaw the launch of two long-range cruise missiles that could carry tactical nuclear weapons, according to North Korean state media.
State of play: Experts believe Kim wants to force North Korea onto the U.S. agenda at a time when President Biden would prefer to focus on China and the war in Ukraine.
- But the North Korean leader has thus far rejected the Biden administration's offer of talks without any preconditions, and Biden has been unwilling to offer concessions to get Pyongyang to the table.
Axios · by Dave Lawler · October 14, 2022
10. North Korea as a complex humanitarian emergency: Assessing food insecurity
The 30 page report can be downloaded here: https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/2022-09/wp22-16.pdf
We need to observe for the indicators of instability that these conditions could cause.
North Korea as a complex humanitarian emergency: Assessing food insecurity
piie.com · by Marcus Noland · September 28, 2022
Publication Type
Working Papers
(PIIE)
Working Papers 22-16
September 2022
Photo Credit: REUTERS/Damir Sagolj
Body
North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency with food insecurity at its core. As of August 2022, both quantity and price data point to a deteriorating situation, made worse by the regime’s self-isolating response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Food availability has likely fallen below minimum human needs and on one metric is the worst since the 1990s famine. Food insecurity in North Korea is not only a humanitarian issue but also a strategic one. In this context, the diplomatic leverage conferred by aid is unclear, nor is North Korea’s priority as a recipient, in light of competing needs elsewhere. Resolution of North Korea’s chronic food insecurity would require changes in the regime’s domestic and foreign policy commitments, but this seems unlikely due to enablement by China and Russia.
Download
Data Disclosure:
The data underlying this analysis can be downloaded here [zip].
piie.com · by Marcus Noland · September 28, 2022
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De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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