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October witnessed a drastic fall of 33% in Islamic State (IS)-claimed attacks in comparison to September, but the intensity of attacks remained consistent. Islamic State, as a whole, claimed responsibility for 95 attacks in different locations around the world, which is much less than anticipated; however, there were also many unclaimed attacks that TRAC attributes to Islamic State, not to mention, more than a few claims of attack that were not expected.
Two of those unexpected claims came from Islamic State Central Command, who claimed an attack on Shia pilgrims in Iran for the first time in almost four years and claimed an assault targeting the electricity network in the Philippines.
The usual high-activity areas of Iraq and Syria witnessed a significant 47% decrease in claimed attacks and even though Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) conducted the highest number of operations among all IS franchises, they still saw a 33% decrease from the previous month.
After the expansion to Benin, TRAC expected Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) to ramp up its operations, but shockingly, the Sahel region saw an unprecedented 71% decrease in its claims. With that said, there have been many assaults and clashes which have not been claimed that TRAC has attributed to Islamic State Greater Sahara based on multiple characteristics of the attacks. Two days ago, Islamic State insiders revealed that in mid-October, ISGS elements in Northern Benin had given an ultimatum to communities in the Park W area that includes parts of Niger, Benin and Burkina Faso. ISGS demanded that the locals launch attacks on the police, as well as close their schools and although TRAC does not know the details of the ISGS ultimatum, TRAC speculates that ISGS threatened the locals with violence including arson and murder, which could count toward the unclaimed attacks.
TRAC posits that overall, Islamic State affiliates carried out far more attacks in October than what was claimed; however, the remote locations and ineffective communication services may have constrained them from reporting attacks to IS Central Command, as one unnamed, IS military official alluded to in an interview in last week's al-Naba. It should be noted that these factors are key indications that Islamic State simply does not know what all of its franchises are doing at all times.
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