After a slight retreat to 67 in the third quarter, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) recovered to 74 points in the final quarter of this year. This is the second-highest level since the inception of the ACI in 2001 (the second quarter of this year had the record level at 75 points). A level above the neutral 50-point mark implies that agribusinesses are optimistic about operating conditions in the country. The results reflect the favourable outlook about the 2021/22 production season. The higher commodity prices, combined with the excellent weather outlook on the back of a La Niña event, are conducive to agricultural activities and could help farmers offset the higher input costs that farmers incurred at the start of the season. This survey was conducted over the last two weeks of November and covered agribusinesses operating in all agricultural subsectors across South Africa. Please click here to peruse.

At the dawn of democracy, few probably thought that nearly three decades on, South Africa would still be battling with the phenomenon of “two agricultures”. Recent studies show that black South African farmers produce less than 10% of the country’s total agricultural output. Some progress has been made as black farmers have joined commercial production and supply chains. But a combination of factors has entrenched the divide between commercial agriculture (mainly white) and subsistence farming (mainly black). Often blame is laid at the door of the private sector. But, in our view, this is an insufficient explanation. This is according to Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo and Prof. Johann Kirsten, director of the Bureau for Economic Research at Stellenbosch University, in the linked article, first published on The Conversation.

Around the developing world, agriculture remains a critical source of livelihood. In many low-income countries, the sector accounts for around 30% of gross domestic product, and 60% of employment. At the same time, most of the world’s extreme poor live in rural areas, mainly practising small-scale farming. Despite its importance, agricultural productivity (measured as value added per unit of land or worker) is low in poor and developing countries. Consequently, growth in agricultural productivity is at the heart of global efforts to reduce poverty, and boost food security. In trying to understand how to improve the sector, much of the academic research has focused on the relationship between productivity and farm size. Specifically, it has long appeared that bigger farms have lower output per unit of land, or yields, than smaller farms. Read more in the linked article, first published on The Conversation.

The global economy continues to recover, along with trade, employment and incomes. But the revival is unbalanced, with countries, businesses and people facing very different economic realities. Recent improvements also conceal structural changes, which mean that some sectors, jobs, technologies and behaviours will not return to their pre-pandemic trends. The situation is extraordinary yet our economic outlook is cautiously optimistic. It focuses on the policies needed to balance such uncertain circumstances with the unusual appearance of rising inflation pressures at an early stage of the recovery. Health, supply constraints, inflation and potential policy missteps are all key concerns. Our central scenario is that the global recovery continues, with the world coping better with the pandemic and monetary and fiscal policies remaining generally supportive throughout 2022. After a rebound of 5.6% in 2021, global growth would move along at a brisk pace of 4.5% in 2022, moderating to 3.2% in 2023. Read more in the OECD Economic Outlook, December 2021.

Various product prices are rising rapidly across the globe as the world opens after months of lockdown. As a result, food prices have been in the headlines, and SA is no exception. As a case in point, consumer food price inflation averaged 6.6% over the past 10 months, compared with 4.5% in 2020. For a society like ours, where food constitutes a significant share of spending for poor households, a rise in prices is always concerning. It is therefore critical to understand if the recent increases are temporary or could persist. It is in this context that we look into the products that have been at the core of the rise in SA food basket prices over the past year. Here, meat, grains and vegetable oils have been the major drivers. Read more in the linked article, penned by Tracy Davids, Marleen Louw, Wandile Sihlobo and Melissa van der Merwe, first published in Business Day. Davids, Louw, Sihlobo and Van der Merwe are members of the Agricultural Economics Association of SA, and are affiliated with the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, Absa Agribusiness, Agricultural Business Chamber of SA, and Stellenbosch University.

This year, South Africa's agricultural sector's exceptional performance, which is reflected in

robust production volumes for the 2021 season and export volumes in the first three quarters of this year, is also evident in the jobs data. The Quarterly Labour Force Survey data released by Statistics South Africa this week showed that in the third quarter of 2021, agricultural employment increased by 3% y/y to 829 000. This is well above the long-term agricultural employment of 780 000. Admittedly, the third quarter of each year is typically not a busy period for agriculture; hence employment is down 4% from the second quarter – a busy harvesting period for field crops, with seasonal employment opportunities. Wandile Sihlobo discusses the latest data in the linked article.

Last week the Crop Estimates Committee released its final estimates for the 2020/21

production season. Unsurprisingly, there were minimal adjustments from the previous month’s estimates, which was the marginal lift in maize, sorghum, dry beans production estimates. South Africa essentially had its second-largest grains harvest on record in the 2020/21 production season. The highlights being the 16,2 million tonnes of maize (up 6% y/y), the second-largest on record and soybeans at 1,9 million tonnes (up by 52% y/y) and a record harvest. This latest production information will have minimal impact on the domestic grains and oilseeds prices, as much of the information is already factored in, and the focus has shifted to the new production season of 2021/22, which started in October. Wandile Sihlobo discusses the latest data in the linked article.

There is heightened uncertainty worldwide in the wake of the new Covid-19 variant,

Omicron. The resultant travel bans against several Southern African countries will have a devastating effect on their tourism industries and associated businesses over the summer months, the most important revenue earners for this sector. From the agricultural side, the primary concern is the wine industry, which was in the midst of recovering from successive bans on alcohol sales since the onset of the pandemic. These precipitated the collapse of agritourism and wine route sales. While there is a lot that remains unknown about the new variant at this stage, I do not foresee it causing major changes in regulations and trading activity for much of the agricultural sector. After all, agriculture has largely been classified as an essential industry and has remained operational since the start of the pandemic. Read more in the linked article by Wandile Sihlobo, written for and first published in Business Day.

In an interview on eNCA, Wandile Sihlobo discussed South Africa's agricultural conditions, exports activity and jobs in the sector. Please click here to view the six-minute interview.

In an effort to dramatically increase vaccination ahead of a surging fourth wave, and in light of the emergence of the Omicron variant, the Department of Health is running an entire Vooma Vaccination Week from 3 to 10 December. B4SA calls on every citizen, in every village, town and city, to take advantage of the increased number of vaccination sites that will be open and available to the public during this time. It is imperative that we vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as is possible, not only to ensure that we keep our loved ones safe and healthy during the festive season, but also to ensure the safety of your entire community. Getting your jab before 11 December will ensure that you are protected before 25 December. Please click here to peruse.

The next few days will on average once again see widespread normal to above-normal rainfall over the country, with temperatures in the normal category for this time of the year. Apart from the possibility of some severe storms at times, conditions should be very supportive of agricultural activities. Yet another upper-air system will result in fairly widespread rain over the country during the next few days. While starting off relatively warm and with thundershowers mostly confined to the northeastern parts, conditions are set to change towards the weekend when almost the entire country may receive rain in the form of widespread showers and thundershowers. As the rainfall during this period will be associated with upper-air systems in the westerlies, there will be a tendency for some of the expected thundershowers to become severe, as is typical for early to mid-summer. The winter rainfall region will again receive some unseasonal rainfall as the upper-air system responsible for the more widespread rainfall towards the weekend will be situated far west initially. Read more in the latest edition of Cumulus Seasonal Outlook, published by AgriSeker.

South African’s grocery baskets are becoming smaller and are costing more. The KykNET programme Prontuit discussed rising food prices and food security with Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz and Prof. Ferdi Meyer, managing director of BFAP. Watch the clip here.

During their monthly Beanstalk.Global broadcasts, PMA Southern Africa and a panel of experts discuss key aspects of various types of fresh produce grown in South Africa and look into ways of expanding existing markets and entering new ones. The focus of this month's broadcast fell on the berry industry in South Africa. Included in the panel of dynamic speakers was Wian Mouton from Fall Creek Farm & Nursery, Rouxan Jansen van Rensburg from Core Fruit, Louw Pienaar from BFAP and Elzette Schutte, manager of Berries ZA. Agricultural economist, Louw Pienaar sees huge potential in the South African berry industry as the driver of socio-economic development, especially towards much-needed job creation and the betterment of livelihoods. Read more in the linked article, first published on FreshPlaza.

The Minister of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, Ms Thoko Didiza (MP), is pleased to announce the opening of the application process of the second phase of the Presidential Employment Stimulus (2nd PESI) from 30 November to 14 December 2021. Selected subsistence producers are invited to submit their applications through the USSD Code *134*4536#. In this second phase, we emphasise selected because all subsistence producers that applied during the 2020 Presidential Employment Stimulus, as well as the recipients of the Solidarity Fund support, need not apply as they have been prioritised for this second phase support of PESI. Read more in the linked DALRRD media statement.

In celebration of a number of Agbiz members who celebrated their 100 years of existence, an annual Agbiz Centenary Bursary Fund was established. The primary objective of the bursary is to promote master's, or PhD level research in agribusiness related fields and Agbiz certainly is proud to be associated with and supporting the set research of Agbiz Centenary Bursary holders. The annual bursary of R39 000 is available to a South African student registered for a master’s or PhD degree in either agricultural economics or agribusiness management-related fields, at any recognised South African university in 2022. Terms and conditions apply. Applications for the 2022 bursary, complete with a completed application form and the required documentation, should reach Agbiz via email or mail before 5 December 2021. Please click here for more information.

Agri-Expo, the oldest agricultural society in South Africa and Africa, celebrates its 190th anniversary this year – and with good reason. On Monday 29 November 2021 during its special 190th-anniversary celebrations at Cavalli Estate outside Stellenbosch, Agri-Expo honoured prominent agricultural role players and announced exciting plans for 2022. New initiatives include an international agriculture-in-the-classroom project, a kykNET television series on cheese and a series of SA Cheese Festival Pop-up Picnics. Read more in the linked Agri-Expo media statement.

Southern African citrus growers delivered 161.6 million cartons of local citrus across the world during 2021, an increase of 18.6 million cartons when compared to last year, despite an extremely difficult and complex season that put the entire industry under severe strain. The sector faced a number of serious challenges including the global shipping crisis, stringent additional phytosanitary measures by the European Union (EU) that are costing the industry more than R4 billion annually, as well as serious operational challenges at South African ports. The ongoing issues at the ports were intensified by the violence and looting that hit parts of KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in mid-July, which cost at least 243 lives, resulting in Durban port being closed for days on end. This was followed by Transnet declaring a force majeure across all ports as a result of a cyberattack, which coincided with the height of the citrus export season. These challenges had a major impact on the timeous arrival of fruit programs in overseas markets, which negatively affected grower revenue. Read more in the linked CGA media statement.

Hortgro, South Africa’s deciduous fruit grower organisation, is seeing the culmination of another successful apple and pear season in the UK market despite Brexit and the pandemic. This year, South African apple and pear exports have seen a 9% increase, with approximately 33 million cartons of apples (12.5kg equivalents) being exported worldwide. The UK was the third largest single export destination for apples from South Africa, receiving 6.1 million units and taking 19% of all exports. 15.5 million cartons of pears were exported globally, of which 1 million units were sent to the UK. This is an increase of 36% from 2020. Read more in the linked article, first published on FreshPlaza.

The Animal Feed Manufacturers Association (AFMA) annually hosts the Intervarsity Writer's Cup competition to encourage universities, student promoters, and students to communicate relevant research information in the AFMA Matrix quarterly magazine. This year, Zarinah Skippers earned Stellenbosch University (US) the honour of being named the 2021 AFMA Intervarsity Writer's Cup Champion. At the time of submitting her article in the category "own research", Zarinah studied MScAgric Animal Sciences (Animal Nutrition), with promoters Profs. Brink van Zyl and Christiaan Cruywagen at the Department of Animal Sciences, Stellenbosch University. Read more in the linked AFMA media statement.

Keeping it Fresh, the newsletter of the Fresh Produce Exporters Forum (FPEF), contains all the recent relevant news and developments. Please click here for the latest edition.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern African, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.

Read more about the latest developments and news in the pork industry in the South African Pork Producers' Organisation (SAPPO) newsletter, SAPPO Weekly Update.