Three new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos examine the ongoing war’s effects on the Caucasus: Marat Iliyasov reports it is polarizing Chechnya but unlikely to result in the republic’s independence; Kornely Kakachia and Salome Kandelaki find the mass influx of Russian citizens generating both hopes and fears in Georgia; and Sufian Zhemukhov writes that Russia’s treatment of occupied regions in Ukraine is both similar to and different from its actions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In a fourth new Policy Memo, Hannah Chapman argues that new developments in Russian electoral fraud make popular resistance less likely.

Putin’s attempts to justify the war are PolitiFact’s “Lie of the Year.” Erik Herron says his claims were designed to deny the existence and agency of the Ukrainian nation, and Eugene Finkel points out that Ukraine’s history has involved several empires entirely separate from Russia. For Yoshiko Herrera, what sets Putin apart is the length to which he is willing to go “for fanciful, unrealistic, imperial motives.” Ivan Kurilla cautions, though, against attributing everything Russia does to its “imperial syndrome.” Kiril Rogov says that despite a recent scandal, the Dozhd TV network has done more than any other Russian-language news outlet to give voice to anti-Putin and anti-war narratives.

Polina Sinovets believes Putin is rational and probably fears that he may lose Russia. Georgi Derluguian compares him with Mikhail Gorbachev, finding a similar trajectory of strength and overconfidence followed by daring, botched gambles that created blowback. For Konstantin Sonin, the expected economic “nosedive” in Russia might not have come to pass, but the long-term costs of the Ukraine war will be “staggering.” And Simon Saradzhyan is sure sanctions will also deplete Russia’s precision missile stocks. Samuel Charap says Russia’s strategic defeat is “already a thing” and was largely self-inflicted. Pavel Baev sees escalating Western support, and Jessica Pisano comments that it was President Biden, not Donald Trump, who was resolute in his support of NATO and stood up to Putin when it came to Moscow’s territorial ambitions.

Russia’s invasion has been a major shock to the scholarly field of Russian studies, writes Vladimir Gel’man, one that Tomila Lankina says left academics struggling to understand the historically deprived communities in Russia whose values, sentiments, and vulnerabilities may be indirect buttresses for Putin and his war. Guzel Yusupova thus calls for more attention to Russian society’s “multifaceted diversity” and Gulnaz Sharafutdinova recommends using conceptual and analytical tools from social psychology.

On other topics, Anar Valiyev says a big Armenian diaspora is a key reason why France tends to be pro-Armenian, while Sebastien Peyrouse argues that Central Asian efforts to mitigate climate change are hindered by the absence of a safe civil society space in which environmental issues can be raised and discussed.