This Week's News:

154k private workers seek COVID bonuses

CT on pace for another multi-billion dollar budget surplus

A crystal ball, tea leaves, or polling?

We are just a month and a half out from CTs statewide elections, and who are we to believe? This week, Quinnipiac University's well-respected poll reported encouraging news for the Democratic statewide candidates while somewhat pouring cold water on the Republican challengers. With a rather large margin of 17%, Governor Lamont leads Stefanowski in this first likely voter pool. For the US Senate race, there is no surprise that current US Senator Blumenthal leads by almost the same numbers as Levy struggles to engage the independent voters of CT.

Some info buried in the “crosstabs” tells an interesting story. Of the likely voters polled for governor, 84% say their minds are made up, and for the US senate race, it's 89%! Not too shabby. The biggest consideration for this election is inflation – not even a topic that a governor can address, and normally votes for the US senate races focus on global issues and they leave domestic issues to the Congressional races. Not surprising for Lamont, Democrats across the board favor the Democratic candidate by 97%. Whereas, in the last race where there was an incumbent Democrat, that number was much lower when polled in September of 2014 where he captured only 48% of the likely Democratic voters.  

Also interestingly, Lamont captures a larger number of Independent voters likely to vote than in the past elections at this time of the election cycle.

Wonder why? I'm guessing that as a businessman Governor Lamont has focused on solving the problems he's faced in his inaugural term as an elected official. He did not arrive in Hartford with preconceived notions of the people, the process, or the solution. He brought in a lot of non-public servants into high-profile spots and leaned heavily on his business background. He brought an open mind and a sense of “we’re all in this together and I'm going to do the best job I can, and I hope that is good enough for CT." A very different approach from veteran elected officials.

Another interesting factor is that 57% of those polled said that President Biden had no impact on how they will vote in CT, and 59% said that former president Trump will have no impact on how they will cast their ballots in November. Interesting when you look at the HUGE gender disparity in the likely votes. For the governor's race and US Senate race, both Republican candidates struggle to keep the women's vote despite the Republican candidate being female herself.

So what does this recent poll say? Man oh man it's going to be hard for the top of the ticket to turn this around. To me, it says that if you work together and collaborate and be civil that you will be rewarded at the polls despite the challenger. It says that down the ticket Trump won't matter, and like Tip O’Neil, former Speaker of the House of Representatives in the US Congress is famous for saying … all politics is local. So expect to see more local candidates engaging with their districts, hitting the doors, attending events, and talking about what their district needs for the next two years.

As we travel the state, we're seeing a lot more candidates hyper-focused on getting out the vote efforts as well as advocating for their candidacy. We also hear Democrats talk more than normal about the importance of staying the course and expressing support for the Governor's actions regarding economic development, workforce initiatives, and taking care of the vulnerable pockets across the state.

Unlike previous elections, where it seemed as if the Democrats in particular were running their own race and what happened at the top of the ticket was incidental, 2022 seems to find the Democrats a bit more unified in their campaign strategies and their actions in local campaigns.

So with less than two months to go, Republican candidates have their work cut out for them at the top of the ticket, but locally if the candidates stay focused on the needs and issues important to their voters, we could see some of the numbers of rank and file legislators change in the senate and house. With likely voters focused on the economy, there’s an opportunity to change the demographics of the legislature. Only time will tell. 

CT Regulations With Some Quirky Laws on the Books

Two clients this week reached out to me about their desire to modify existing state agency regulations on items that are more technical in nature or obsolete in the 2022 world.

How hard is it to change a regulation? Well let’s just say that by CT regulation, it’s illegal for two people who are married to kiss in public on Sunday, hair stylists are prohibited from singing and whistling while at work and town records can’t be store where liquor is sold. Getting the picture?

This can be a tricky topic since you have to have a balanced approach with the state agency, but here’s a 101 on the things to keep in mind:

(1) State agency regulations are almost always prompted by enabling statutes (aka passed legislation). This means that if an agency has something on the books it’s because legislation passed requiring guidance via regulations.

(2) For technical clean-ups or modernizing obsolete provisions, there’s no straightforward approach without going to the state agency first and working through a plan to have the agency submit a modification either through a bill or the Regulations Review Committee.

(3) Once you’ve achieved buy-in, you need to have a larger plan to work with all the stakeholders to make sure the process doesn’t get bogged down in time and endless resources. Amending regulations could be pending for years if you don’t have a clear path forward.

(4) If it costs too much money or is too heavy a political “lift”, you could be finished before getting started. You can’t start the process of amending regulations before having uncomfortable conversations with industries that could be opposed.

Keep these things in mind and work with our team if you know of some regulations you’d like to update.

Governor Lamont issued grants totaling over $31 million this week to small towns throughout the state. Municipalities could receive up to $500,000 under the long standing program, Small Town Economic Assistance Program (STEAP). There were 77 recipients of the grant this round and projects range from economic development, transportation, environmental protection, public safety, historic preservation to housing and social service programs. These dollars can only be used for capital projects and cannot be supplemental dollars towards shoring up budget deficits. 

A few examples of the projects include $500,000 for the Town of Bethlehem to reconstruct and replace tennis courts in the recreation area of the town hall. $100,000 of that project will be funded by the town. Burlington received $430,000 for sidewalks on Route 4 connecting their commercial corridors. Wolcott received $175,000 for a walking path over a dam in town for pedestrians.  

Targeted Races, a Local Guide to Targeting Campaigns

State legislative candidates have a choice in the summer to either start wearing out shoe leather or sit back, take a summer vacation and relax all the while thinking, “I got this.” 

Sometimes, candidates know they could have a tough race so they tie up their shoes to hit every door in the district, multiple times. Other times, candidates know they are good to win, so they sit back a bit and bask in the summer months. For those who know they will have a tough race, they can sometimes fall under a smaller tier throughout state conversations and that tier is called, the targeted races. Campaigns call the supporters they have locked in as “IDs.” If both campaigns have a certain amount of positive IDs, they could find themselves being targeted by statewide powers-that-be. If both campaigns are running in a district where the number of registered voters is split among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, they can find themselves being targeted. Targeted races get more volunteer resources because they are more competitive and for folks like us, more fun to watch.

Some races are targeted not because of candidates but because of location. Ridgefield has always been one of those places. Aimee Berger-Girvalo is a popular State Representative from the area who won the seat over Bob Hebert in 2020 by just over 600 votes. She is being challenged by that Republican this year and before she held that seat, John Frey was the Republican State Rep from that district for many years. This is a tough seat because I used to knock doors in this district before, it is a tough place to get out the vote (think, long driveways and hills)! Look for this race to be one that you see a lot of volunteers heading to in the final stretch. 

This is a seat we have spoken about before, but it’s a close one… Senator Haskell’s departure from the State Senate has led us to a targeted race that is very much up for grabs. This is a fun race to watch because of the location. It’s a district that has flipped in the past and has a familiar name running. Toni Boucher, a Republican had won this seat handily before 2018, when Haskell won by just over 3,000 votes. Ceci Maher is running as a Democrat and has been hitting doors…a lot. It’s going to be close given the nature of the seat and look for this one to be a seat both parties target heading into the final stretch.

There will be several other targets as we head into the final days of these campaigns but these two races stick out as important campaigns that have been doing a lot of work to engage with their supporters and potential voters who could support them. As the cold crawls in, weekends will be filled with volunteers and candidates getting their supporters engaged. Look for seats like these to be talked about more heading into October.

September 23: The Great September Gale of 1815, the First Connecticut Hurricane in 180 Years

On the morning of September 23, 1815, the first major hurricane to hit New England in 180 years made landfall at Old Saybrook, Connecticut. Since the word “hurricane” was virtually unknown in early America, residents later identified the monstrous storm as the “Great Storm” or “Great Gale” of September 1815. With estimated sustained winds of 135 miles per hour, the Great September Gale of 1815 would have been classified as a Category 3 major hurricane by today’s standards, and was the largest storm to hit the region since the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635.



The Great Gale devastated Connecticut’s shoreline communities, with the highest winds and tides affecting the state’s easternmost coastal towns. Six-foot waves were reported in New London harbor, while Stonington residents observed tide levels so high they eclipsed previous records by a whopping seventeen feet. Ships were smashed against docks, and shoreline farms were ruined with thousands of livestock killed and crops flattened by powerful winds. The devastation was even higher in neighboring Rhode Island, where storm surges caused record flooding throughout Narragansett Bay. By the time the storm blew over, at least 38 lives across New England were lost, and countless millions of dollars’ worth of damage done, not counting ships and lives lost at sea.

To view the full story on the CT Historian's website, click here.