Quotes of the Day:
"To be irrational gives you certain answers. Anyone would rather go to somebody who says 2+2=5 and there is no mistake about it than to go to someone who says, well, modern scientific research says that 2+2 is usually 4 but we cant always be certain of course. Of course they'll go for the certain thing even if it's wrong."
- Isaac Asimov
"Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do."
- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
"Never give up, for that is just the place and time that the tide will turn."
- Harriet Beecher Stowe
1. S. Korea, U.S. in final-stage talks over end-of-war declaration: unification minister
2. North Korean soldiers face punishment for calling South Korea by its official name
3. 5th Conference of Frontrunners in Three Revolutions opens
4. S. Korea to establish new information center on unification
5. Make Release of Six South Koreans Detained in North Korea Top Priority
6. Moon testing valuable U.S.-ROK relationship with demand to end Korean War
7. US, Japan reaffirm importance of trilateral cooperation with S.Korea
8. US designates North Korea as state violator of religious freedom
9. Why Did the 2015 Japan-Korea ‘Comfort Women’ Agreement Fall Apart?
10. N. Korea has more than 100,000 people with COVID-19 symptoms quarantined in state facilities
11. North Korea's food prices fall as new goods hit the market
12. Lessons from history: the Taft-Katsura meeting
13. Time for South Korea to abandon the “middle power” moniker
14. Experts: China May Attempt to Use North Korea to Counter US
15. North Korea’s Moral Challenge to President Biden
1. S. Korea, U.S. in final-stage talks over end-of-war declaration: unification minister
Let me state up front that I want peace on the Korean peninsula, and I think all Koreans and Americans want peace. The question is will an end of war declaration contribute to peace if there is no change to the conventional and nuclear and missiles forces in the north? How will the security of the ROK be maintained by an end of war declaration? Paper and rhetoric do not trump steel and the amount of north Korean steel north of the DMZ is an existential threat to the South.
This is a complicated issue for a number of reasons. President Moon appears to have an overwhelming desire to cement his legacy as the "peace president'' and an end of war declaration would seem to contribute to that. The Moon administration is also laboring under the erroneous assumption that such a declaration will show Kim Jong-un that the ROK/US alliance is abandoning what Kim calls the alliance "hostile policy." This assumption is followed by a second erroneous assumption that the declaration will lead to a jump starting of north-South engagement and denuclearization negotiations. These assumptions illustrate a lack of understanding of the nature, the objectives, and the strategy of the Kim family regime which has never wavered in 7 decades - it still seeks to dominate the peninsula under its rule.
I think the ROK and US diplomats are working a way forward that will support the policies of both countries. The US does not oppose an end of war declaration per se. As the Moon administration will say it is only symbolic and not legally binding so the question is how it will affect the alliance and security on the Korean peninsula? I think the US position is likely that if we do have an end of war declaration it must be meaningful and it must contribute to the security of the ROK. The only way it can contribute to the security of the ROK is if there are negotiations to reduce the conventional threat of the DMZ as well as with the ballistic missile and nuclear threats. We must never forget that the 4th largest Army in the world has 70% of its 1.2 million man army deployed between the DMZ and Pyongyang postured for offensive operations. Its purpose is to attack the South. The South Korean forces are postured for the defense. While north Korea accuses the alliance of having a hostile policy it is the north that actually demonstrates its hostile policy and has done so for the past 7 decades. Few in the political ranks or in the media focus on north Korea's hostile policies.
In regard to the DEPSECSTATE's remarks I do not think we should read too much into the use of the word statement versus declaration. I think that she is pleased with the diplomatic coordination being done by both sides. I think the diplomats might reach an agreement that might be summarized this way. The ROK and US support peace and that it would be useful to declare an end to the war. However, to do so requires negotiations on both sides that must include concrete assurances and measures to ensure the security of the ROK. I think we will see a statement in principle that the alliance supports an end of war declaration but will not make a unilateral declaration without negotiations with the north and without substantive action by the north to reduce its threat and end its hostile policy. As long as the north continues to demonstrate its hostile policy the war cannot be declared over. Again, paper and words do not trump steel.
The US is not going to reject the proposal outright. To do so would open the US to criticism that it does not want peace. Again, the US is sincere in the desire for peace, but it has a stronger desire to ensure that attacks are deterred and the security of the ROK is maintained. The US is also concerned with the political warfare strategy of north Korea, China, and Russia. They have already laid the groundwork to blame the US for not reaching an end of war declaration. The regime has stated that it will not support an end of war declaration unless sanctions are lifted. China and Russia have discussed the need for the UN Security Council to lift sanctions. A fundamental precept of the Biden administration policy is the full implementation of all relevant UN Security Council resolutions. This means that it does not support sanctions relief until the north complies with the requirements of the resolutions. However, when there is no end of war declaration north Korea, China, and Russia will use their propaganda and agitation departments to blame the US as the obstacle, They will exploit this to focus on another important objective: to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance. Fortunately, ROK and US diplomats understand this, and this is why there has not been a premature announcement and why the diplomats are working on way forward,
The other issue with an end of war declaration is that it will be exploited by political factions in South Korea and the US who think US forces should be removed from the Korean peninsula Kim. Jong-un defines the ROK/US Alliance "hostile policy" as the ROK/US alliance, the presence of US forces in Korea, and extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan. An end of war declaration will breathe oxygen into the arguments of these groups and they will then be pushing for a removal of US troops. they will be providing direct support to Kim Jong-un's objectives for removal of US troops so he can continue his strategy of subversion, coercion/extortion, blackmail diplomacy and ultimately the use of force to dominate the Korean peninsula under his rule.
In the end I think US and ROK diplomats will propose negotiations with the north to work toward an end of war declaration. President Biden and President Moon will give Kim Jong-un to negotiate and behave like a responsible member of the international community? This is really the key to any progress: will Kim ever become a responsible member of the international community. Unless he does there can be no progress. And we must not forget that paper and words do not trump steel.
S. Korea, U.S. in final-stage talks over end-of-war declaration: unification minister | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Nov. 19 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States are in final-stage talks over Seoul's proposal for the declaration of a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War, a top official said Friday.
Unification Minister Lee In-young made the remarks during a forum on international relations, as Seoul has been striving to accelerate the consultations with Washington over the proposal, which it says would serve as a catalyst to resume nuclear diplomacy with Pyongyang.
"The South and the U.S. have been holding very serious, deep consultations regarding the end-of-war declaration," he said. "I can say that to a certain extent, those discussions are entering a final stage."
Saying that a "sign of change" on the Korean Peninsula has been emerging, the minister predicted that the North would not do things that would escalate tensions for the time being.
"Still, the North has continued to conduct short-range missile tests, but kept a level short of crossing the 'red line,'" the minister said.
"While we can't make a conclusive judgment, the North might not behave in a way that would foment tensions in a high-intensity, strategic way or escalate them," he added.
In recent months, Seoul has been stepping up diplomacy with Washington, Tokyo and other concerned parties to elicit their support to bring Pyongyang back to dialogue and move forward its stalled peace agenda.
(END)
2. North Korean soldiers face punishment for calling South Korea by its official name
Han versus Choson. We English speakers do not grasp the nuances of these names.
But these two nKPA soldiers violated the Law on Elimination of Reactionary Thought and Culture. Just another indication that in the face of multiple crises in north Korea the priority is on ensure the purity of the ideology of "Kimjongunism." That includes using the correct name for their "enemy."
Now of course I am probably as petty as Kim Jong-un as I do not like to capitalize the 'n" in north Korea. It is a habit I learned many years ago from my Korean colleagues working at the ROK/US CFC.. We never capitalized the "n" to denote that we did not recognize the legitimacy of north Korea and the Kim family. The practice has fallen by the wayside over the years but the habit has stuck with me proving the adage the only thing harder than getting a new idea into a military mind is getting an old one out.
North Korean soldiers face punishment for calling South Korea by its official name
Officials say military leaders are sensitive to the South’s dramatic rise in cultural influence.
The North Korean military will severely punish two soldiers for referring to South Korea by an abbreviation of its official name, which is essentially a political statement that recognizes the legitimacy of the government in Seoul, military sources in the North told RFA.
The official name for North Korea is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), whereas South Korea is officially the Republic of Korea (ROK). But the “Korea” part of their names are different words — Choson in the North and Hanguk in the South.
While both names have been used by previous governments in the peninsula’s history, in the current political climate the use of one name or the other has become almost a political declaration. North Koreans call the South, “South Choson,” and South Koreans call the North, “North Han.”
In conversation, the two North Korean soldiers referred to South Korea as “Hanguk,” an indiscretion that is likely to bring a harsh reprisal from military leaders, sources said.
“There was an incident in a unit under the 9th Corps, where several soldiers used the term ‘Hanguk’ to refer to the South,” a military source from the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service Nov. 16.
“Two soldiers were ordered to appear for a self-criticism meeting in front of the rest of the unit,” said the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons.
Such meetings are common in North Korea. They can consist of workers, government officials and even neighborhood residents. The participants are expected to snitch on each other for their thought crimes in front of their peers and adjudicators, who usually dole out light punishments for the offenses.
But the punishment for these soldiers will likely be much more severe than is typical, the North Hamgyong source said.
“This is the first time they will punish soldiers for this kind of crime since the enactment of the Law on Elimination of Reactionary Thought and Culture,” said the source, referring to the new draconian law passed within the last year.
“The authorities are likely going to make an example out of them,” the source said.
The soldiers had used the offending term while on duty as they were discussing South Korea’s rapid development from an impoverished country at the conclusion of the Korean War to one of the world’s leading economies only decades later, according to the source.
“They are facing punishment now because one of the soldiers working with them was secretly an agent for the Defense Security Command and he reported them,” the source said.
In recent years, North Koreans have grown increasingly aware of the differences between the two countries thanks in part to South Korea’s rapidly expanding popular cultural influence, globally referred to as the Korean Wave.
The latest South Korean dramas and K-Pop hits make their way to the North on smuggled flash drives and SD cards. Once there it is ravenously consumed on the sly by trendy young North Koreans, who show off to each other by adopting South Korean slang terms and spellings, and even the distinct dialect of the South Korean capital.
The North Korean government has been actively fighting against what it calls an “infiltration of capitalist culture,” sentencing people to hard labor or even death for possessing or distributing copies of foreign media.
“Within the military, the young soldiers are being swept up in the [South] Korean Wave, and the authorities consider this behavior to be a reactionary act by those lacking faith in the socialist system,” the North Hamgyong source said.
In this June 29, 2007 file photo, South Korean workers load sacks of rice for North Korea into a Vietnamese ship at Gunsan port in Gunsan, South Korea. Each sack is labeled prominently with the official name of South Korea, "Daehan Minguk," meaning "Republic of Korea." Credit: AP
“Three of four years ago, when inter-Korean relations were good, calling the South by its official name, the Republic of Korea, was not such a big deal,” said the source.
“But these days, authorities are quick to jump on people for uttering even a singly problematic word in passing, so everyone, especially officials of the regime, are walking on eggshells trying not to make a mistake by saying the wrong thing,” the source said.
New recruits showing up for their mandatory seven-year stints in the armed forces are screened for ideological infractions even before they arrive for training, according to the source.
“Not only are their belongings searched, they are also interrogated about how many times they have watched South Korean dramas and movies before they even enlist,” the source said.
“If they honestly confess, then they only have to go to educational sessions. But if they did not confess and are caught later, they will be punished.”
When soldiers do something wrong, it is not uncommon for their superiors to also be punished. Different arms of the military in North Hamgyong are blaming each other for the two soldiers’ choice of words, creating a tense situation, another North Hamgyong military source told RFA.
“In relation to the two soldiers of the 9th Corps that called the South by a problematic term, the head of the operations division of the staff department, who oversees the division command’s censorship committee, once even tried to inspect the computer in the office of the propaganda director at the political department,” the second source said.
“He said he was cracking down on illegal videos. The director protested and a fight almost broke out,” said the second source.
The 9th Corps is deployed near the border with China and is therefore under more scrutiny because of the relative ease its soldiers can procure media from South Korea, according to the second source.
But despite the repeated crackdowns, South Korean media has had a major effect on how the soldiers see what is supposed to be their sworn enemy.
“The soldiers realize that the South is indeed more advanced than we are. Not only economically, but in every major aspect. Crackdowns and punishments can only do so much to stop them from wanting to know more,” the source said.
Translated by Dukin Han. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
3. 5th Conference of Frontrunners in Three Revolutions opens
From the nK Propaganda and Agitation Department. No evidence that the regime abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve the goals of the revolution and unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime.
Excerpts:
The conference brought together the standard-bearers of the three revolutions and the three-revolution team members who are taking the lead in carrying out the ideological, technical and cultural revolutions, leading officials of the provincial, city and county Party committees, leading Party officials of the ministries and national agencies, political officials of the armed forces organs, officials of the department concerned of the Party Central Committee and officials concerned.
...
The reporter stressed that the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the Three-Revolution Team Movement are the mass movements of the highest forms and a powerful revolutionary mode of our era which thoroughly embodied the original idea of the WPK on mass movement and fully demonstrated their validity and vitality in the historic course of the revolution and construction.
...
He touched on the immortal exploits of the great leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il and the respected Kim Jong Un who led the socialist construction along the road of victory, holding fast to the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the Three-Revolution Team Movement as a powerful weapon for carrying out the three revolutions, the general line of the WPK.
...
He said that when the whole country seethes with the efforts to carry out the three revolutions, remarkable changes will be made in the whole of the socialist construction and the advance of our cause will be extraordinarily accelerated. He called for bringing about a great change in the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the work of three-revolution teams and thus realizing the great ambition and ideal of our Party to bring the day of victory of socialism and communism at an early date.
5th Conference of Frontrunners in Three Revolutions opens
The Fifth Conference of the Frontrunners in the Three Revolutions opened in the capital Pyongyang on the 18th.
The conference will share the successes and experiences gained in the course of the mass movement for carrying out the three revolutions after the Fourth Conference of Frontrunners in the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the National Meeting of Active Three-Revolution Team Members, analyze and sum up the shortcomings and lessons that occurred in the course of the mass movement and discuss practical issues arising in newly innovating the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the work of three-revolution teams.
The conference brought together the standard-bearers of the three revolutions and the three-revolution team members who are taking the lead in carrying out the ideological, technical and cultural revolutions, leading officials of the provincial, city and county Party committees, leading Party officials of the ministries and national agencies, political officials of the armed forces organs, officials of the department concerned of the Party Central Committee and officials concerned.
The rostrum was taken by Choe Ryong Hae, Member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the WPK and First Vice-President of the State Affairs Commission and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK; Kim Tok Hun, Member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the WPK and Vice-President of the State Affairs Commission and Premier of the Cabinet of the DPRK; and Pak Jong Chon, Member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the WPK and Secretary of the Party Central Committee.
The rostrum was also taken by senior officials of the Party and the government, chief secretaries of the provincial Party committees, leading officials of the working people's organizations, ministries and national agencies, and officials, standard-bearers of the three revolutions and the three-revolution team members who set a practical example in carrying out the ideological, technical and cultural revolutions.
Seen on the rostrum were Kwon Yong Jin and other leading officials of the armed forces organs.
When the conference was declared open, the national anthem of the DPRK was solemnly played.
Choe Ryong Hae courteously conveyed the letter "Let Us Achieve the Comprehensive Development of Socialism by Kindling the Fierce Flames of the Three Revolutions" sent by the respected Kim Jong Un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and President of the State Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, to the participants in the Fifth Conference of Frontrunners in the Three Revolutions.
A report was made by Ri Il Hwan, Member of the Political Bureau and Secretary of the Central Committee of the WPK.
The reporter stressed that the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the Three-Revolution Team Movement are the mass movements of the highest forms and a powerful revolutionary mode of our era which thoroughly embodied the original idea of the WPK on mass movement and fully demonstrated their validity and vitality in the historic course of the revolution and construction.
He touched on the immortal exploits of the great leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il and the respected Kim Jong Un who led the socialist construction along the road of victory, holding fast to the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the Three-Revolution Team Movement as a powerful weapon for carrying out the three revolutions, the general line of the WPK.
He mentioned the successes achieved after the Fourth Conference of Frontrunners in the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the National Meeting of Active Three-Revolution Team Members.
The report pointed out some shortcomings that the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the work of three-revolution teams fail to meet the intention of the Party and the demand of the developing revolution, and made an analysis of their causes.
The reporter stressed the need to regard it as a fundamental key to the ideological revolution to prepare all the officials, the Party members and other working people as genuine revolutionaries who keep the revolutionary idea of our great Party as their firm faith and are boundlessly loyal to the leadership of the Party Central Committee.
He touched on decisively improving the Party guidance and administrative and technical guidance over the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the work of three-revolution teams.
He said that when the whole country seethes with the efforts to carry out the three revolutions, remarkable changes will be made in the whole of the socialist construction and the advance of our cause will be extraordinarily accelerated. He called for bringing about a great change in the Three-Revolution Red Flag Movement and the work of three-revolution teams and thus realizing the great ambition and ideal of our Party to bring the day of victory of socialism and communism at an early date.
Speeches were made at the conference.
The conference continues.
4. S. Korea to establish new information center on unification
S. Korea to establish new information center on unification | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Nov. 19 (Yonhap) -- The South Korean government has decided to build a new database center on unification on the outskirts of Seoul, where the current information center will be relocated after expansion, according to a government source Friday.
The Ministry of Unification, which handles inter-Korean affairs, earlier formed an internal panel for the relocation project, which has picked the site near the Korea International Exhibition Center (KINTEX) in Goyang, just northwest of Seoul, the source said.
If constructed on the land at the size of around 6,611 square meters, it will serve as the country's new mecca for historical records and other materials as well as research in connection with North Korea and unification.
The ministry has operated the Information Center on North Korea for more than 30 years at leased facilities. It is currently situated at the National Library of Korea in southern Seoul.
The relocation project is estimated to cost a total of 44.5 billion won (US$37.6 million), with construction aimed to be completed in the second half of 2025.
"Once the related budget is confirmed at the National Assembly, (we) will go ahead with follow-up procedures," including consultations with the Goyang city authorities, a ministry official said.
The Information Center on North Korea, born in 1989, is considered a research mecca among North Korea experts and others interested in relevant issues, housing roughly 114,000 pieces of research materials.
The National Library of Korea has asked the ministry to move the facilities, citing lack of space at its own compound. The ministry has also discarded some old materials due to the shortage of storage space at the center.
(END)
5. Make Release of Six South Koreans Detained in North Korea Top Priority
Excerpts:
Undeniably North Korea continues to be unresponsive to many issues, despite actions taken by the international community. The South Korean government is concerned that North Korea will leverage the return of these prisoners for political concessions. However, North Korea’s unresponsiveness is due to the lukewarm attitude of the South Korean government to human rights issues. If South Korea, in cooperation with the international community, applies ardent pressure on North Korea, the latter will have no choice but to release the detainees.
It has been eight long years. These prisoners are someone’s precious family members and friends. The South Korean government must abandon its passive attitude and work with its allies in the international community who value freedom and human rights, persisting until its people return to their families. The return of these six South Koreans will serve as a ray of light in the darkness for all those who are still oppressed around the world.
Make Release of Six South Koreans Detained in North Korea Top Priority - OKN
By
November 19, 2021
Since October 2013, six South Korean citizens have been trapped in North Korea, facing torture and forced labor in prisons. Meanwhile, three inter-Korean summits have been held, where South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un discussed peace on the Korean Peninsula. There was no mention of a prompt release of the South Koreans.
In a North Korean prison, these six South Koreans – Jung-wook Kim, Kuk-gi Kim, Chun-kil Choi, Won-ho Kim, Hyun-chul Ko, and Jin-woo Ham (the latter three of which are North Korean defectors) – are being held. As missionaries, they helped hungry North Koreans by operating shelters and noodle factories in the border region between North Korea and China. The North Korean regime illegally arrested them for the crime of espionage and subversion of the regime. They were sentenced to life imprisonment and forced labor, the earliest detainee having been held for eight years.
North Korea has severely violated the sovereignty of South Korea and the dignity of the South Korean people. Nevertheless, the South Korean government has failed to rescue the six citizens who have been unfairly imprisoned. The South Korean President, Moon Jae-in, a human rights attorney, prioritized inter-Korean summits over the release of these citizens. While President Moon met with Kim Jong Un several times, he never mentioned the release of the detained South Koreans, making his slogan, “People come first,” seem meaningless. South Korea must do everything to rescue its people as soon as possible.
South Korea can refer to the release of three U.S. citizens, who were also unjustly detained, for the rescue of its citizens. The White House put the liberation of Americans as top priority for engaging with North Korea. As a result, it freed the three detainees prior to the U.S.–North Korea summit in June 2018 after persistent negotiations by the U.S. government. Then President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcomed these three detainees personally when they finally landed at Joint Base Andrews. Then Vice President Mike Pence, Second Lady Karen Pence, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were also present.
Likewise, with the support of the international community and its allies, the South Korean government must also prioritize the release of its prisoners from North Korea. South Korea should use a naming and shaming strategy to inform the international community of North Korea’s severe violation of sovereignty and human rights. By raising the issue as often as possible and working with the international community, the South Korean government can apply pressure on North Korea, without the use of physical force. It will indicate that South Korea is open to dialogue for the prompt release of its citizens. This strategy will signal that despite North Korea’s illegal provocations, the South Korean government adheres to international norms.
South Korea needs to get the world’s attention by putting North Korea’s illegal detentions on the agenda at international conferences. The South Korean government should make North Korea accountable for the illegal detentions as well as the poor treatment of its own citizens. It should not abstain anymore but instead approve the North Korean human rights resolutions at the UN Human Rights Council and the UN General Assembly. This naming and shaming strategy will shine a bright light on North Korea’s human rights violations.
The more South Korea appeals to the international community, the more it can garner support from other nations. For example, in February 2021, Canada launched an initiative against the arbitrary detention of foreign citizens, with the support of more than 60 countries, including the United States and the European Union. These states have an active will to oppose detention, including that of the South Koreans. Therefore, if South Korea cooperates with them and raises the issue of North Korean illegal detention, many countries will advocate for and support the release of the six detainees.
Undeniably North Korea continues to be unresponsive to many issues, despite actions taken by the international community. The South Korean government is concerned that North Korea will leverage the return of these prisoners for political concessions. However, North Korea’s unresponsiveness is due to the lukewarm attitude of the South Korean government to human rights issues. If South Korea, in cooperation with the international community, applies ardent pressure on North Korea, the latter will have no choice but to release the detainees.
It has been eight long years. These prisoners are someone’s precious family members and friends. The South Korean government must abandon its passive attitude and work with its allies in the international community who value freedom and human rights, persisting until its people return to their families. The return of these six South Koreans will serve as a ray of light in the darkness for all those who are still oppressed around the world.
6. Moon testing valuable U.S.-ROK relationship with demand to end Korean War
Excerpts:
This is because the declaration would weaken the legitimacy of the U.S. forces, as well as the United Nations Command, stationed in South Korea. Both North Korea and South Korean leftists would argue for their withdrawal due to the war being “over.” However, a report came out at the right time to remind South Koreans of the importance of the alliance with the United States.
The Korea Economic Research Institute released a report analyzing the value of the alliance with the United States on November 17 to celebrate the 67th anniversary of the Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and South Korea, which went into effect on November 18, 1954. The report by the institute showed that the negative economic impact from no alliance with the United States would have amounted to 3,041 trillion won ($2.57 trillion) in damage to the South Korean gross domestic product (GDP) from 2000 to 2020. This paper builds on earlier research by Kyle Ferrier from the Korea Economic Institute in Washington, D.C., that found the alliance was worth $2 trillion to the United States in addition to intangible benefits to the entire region.
Moon testing valuable U.S.-ROK relationship with demand to end Korean War - OKN
November 18, 2021
Study finds alliance is worth trillions to South Korean economy
Many experts worry that the Moon Jae-in administration’s unilateral attempt to declare an end to the Korean War before the next presidential election in March could negatively impact the U.S.-Korea alliance.
This is because the declaration would weaken the legitimacy of the U.S. forces, as well as the United Nations Command, stationed in South Korea. Both North Korea and South Korean leftists would argue for their withdrawal due to the war being “over.” However, a report came out at the right time to remind South Koreans of the importance of the alliance with the United States.
The Korea Economic Research Institute released a report analyzing the value of the alliance with the United States on November 17 to celebrate the 67th anniversary of the Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and South Korea, which went into effect on November 18, 1954. The report by the institute showed that the negative economic impact from no alliance with the United States would have amounted to 3,041 trillion won ($2.57 trillion) in damage to the South Korean gross domestic product (GDP) from 2000 to 2020. This paper builds on earlier research by Kyle Ferrier from the Korea Economic Institute in Washington, D.C., that found the alliance was worth $2 trillion to the United States in addition to intangible benefits to the entire region.
The institute analyzed the economic impact of the vacuum in South Korea’s defense capability followed by the withdrawal of U.S. forces and other assets due to a weakened alliance relationship. It studied the additional defense budget that South Korea could have allocated depending on the various scenarios, which include a lowered credit rating due to increasing geopolitical risks due to the withdrawal of U.S. forces. The three scenarios of the study include allocating a budget to fill the gap of the U.S. forces once and paying additional costs every year, raising the military budget by 50 percent, and raising the military budget by 100 percent.
The institute concluded that the damage to the South Korean GDP would range from a minimum of 928 trillion won ($785 billion) to a maximum of 3,041 trillion won ($2.57 trillion).
“The United States is South Korea’s historical and military ally established by blood that lasted for over 60 years,” the report said. “A strong alliance is essential for South Korea’s economy to be stable and achieve sustainable prosperity.”
Choo Kwang-ho, director of economic policy at the institute, added that “South Korea was able to achieve rapid economic growth and economic prosperity after the Korean War under the free market system, and the biggest pillar behind this achievement was the strong alliance with the United States.” He continued that, “We need to maintain the strong alliance with the United States to maintain the groundwork of the sustainable economic prosperity.”
The United States, South Korea, and Japan are holding trilateral vice-ministerial level meetings this week in Washington D.C. Choi Jong-kun, First Vice Foreign Minister from South Korea, told reporters on November 15 that the three countries do not differ on pushing ahead with the declaration to end the war. He said he will be discussing details such as when and how to achieve the declaration with his counterparts.
During a keynote speech at the Korea-U.S. Strategy Forum co-hosted by the Korea Foundation for International Relations (KF) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on November 15, Choi argued that it is important to create a framework for inescapable peace on the Korean Peninsula. He argued that the declaration of an end to the war is a good way to do this.
“Our focus is on building a lasting structure for engagement with North Korea,” he said. “The peace process can be long, arduous and painful.”
Choi met with Wendy Sherman, Deputy Secretary of State, on November 16. The South Korean foreign ministry released a statement saying that “they assessed the progress of the Korean Peninsula Peace Process, including the end-of-war declaration issue, and agreed to continue their cooperation to bring North Korea to the table.”
However, the U.S. press release did not mention the end-of-war declaration. Ned Price, the spokesperson for the State Department, said, “the two also discussed the DPRK and our shared commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.”
“Deputy Secretary Sherman and First Vice Foreign Minister Choi reaffirmed the U.S.-ROK Alliance as the linchpin of peace, security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond,” added Price. “The Deputy Secretary welcomed the ROK’s regional and global leadership and stressed the U.S. commitment to working with allies and partners to defend the rules-based international order.”
Washington’s continued reluctance to follow Moon’s hasty plans to end the war may put the alliance in trouble, especially if pro-North Korean candidate Lee Jae-myung wins the presidential election next year.
7. US, Japan reaffirm importance of trilateral cooperation with S.Korea
Except on territorial disputes, comfort women, and historical issues.
US, Japan reaffirm importance of trilateral cooperation with S.Korea - Bhaskar Live English News
Washington, Nov 19 | Senior diplomats of the US and Japan have reaffirmed the importance of cooperation with South Korea, a day after Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Takeo Mori boycotted a joint press conference over what his American counterpart called an unrelated bilateral issue.
Mori and US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman also reaffirmed their commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, Yonhap News Agency quoted State Department spokesman Ned Price as saying on Thursday.
“The two also discussed the DPRK and our shared commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,” he said in a released statement.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea’s official name.
“They also reaffirmed the importance of US-Japan-Republic of Korea trilateral cooperation, which seeks to tackle the global challenges of the 21st century,” he added.
Thursday’s meeting between Sherman and Mori came one day after they held three-way talks with their South Korean counterpart, Choi Jong-kun.
The trio was originally set to hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Washington, but the event was instead held by Sherman alone.
Choi later explained the Japanese diplomat refused to take part in the joint press event, taking issue with a recent visit by the head of South Korean police to Dokdo, a set of South Korean islets in the East Sea, to which Tokyo lays territorial claims.
8. US designates North Korea as state violator of religious freedom
We must and are taking a human rights upfront approach. We are not afraid to call out north Korea's human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.
US designates North Korea as state violator of religious freedom
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken / AFP-Yonhap
The United States has designated North Korea as a state violator of religious freedom, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday.
North Korea is one of 10 countries designated as "country of particular concern."
"I am designating Burma, the People's Republic of China, Eritrea, Iran, the DPRK, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan as Countries of Particular Concern for having engaged in or tolerated "systematic, ongoing, and egregious violations of religious freedom," Blinken said in a released statement.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name. It marks the 20th consecutive year the North was designated a state violator of religious freedom.
Blinken vowed efforts to end what he called 'structural, systematic and deeply entrenched" challenges to religious freedom, also calling on the international community to do the same.
"The challenges to religious freedom in the world today are structural, systemic, and deeply entrenched," he said. "They demand sustained global commitment from all who are unwilling to accept hatred, intolerance, and persecution as the status quo. They require the international community's urgent attention."
Along with the 10 state violators of religious freedom, Blinken also designated nine non-state actors, including the Houthis and ISIS, as entities of particular concern, while placing Algeria, Comoros, Cuba and Nicaragua on a special watch list for countries that have engaged in or tolerated "severe violations of religious freedom." (Yonhap)
9. Why Did the 2015 Japan-Korea ‘Comfort Women’ Agreement Fall Apart?
Conclusion:
Even if there is a state-to-state agreement in place, the individual right to claim restitution cannot be extinguished. Claims of Japanese privilege simply seek to avoid fundamental responsibility for human rights issues established by historical facts.
Why Did the 2015 Japan-Korea ‘Comfort Women’ Agreement Fall Apart?
The agreement was flawed from the beginning, and continued denialism from the Japanese government undermined its spirit.
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On December 28, 2015, the South Korean and Japanese governments announced an Agreement on Comfort Women, without showing the text of a formal agreement. Foreign ministers of the two countries read a statement, not the agreement, in front of a TV camera together.
At the time, Kishida Fumio, who was then foreign minister of Japan and is now the prime minister, said on behalf of Prime Minister Abe Shinzo:
The issue of comfort women, with an involvement of the Japanese military authorities at that time, was a grave affront to the honor and dignity of large numbers of women, and the Government of Japan is painfully aware of responsibilities from this perspective.
As Prime Minister of Japan, Prime Minister Abe expresses anew his most sincere apologies and remorse to all the women who underwent immeasurable and painful experiences and suffered incurable physical and psychological wounds as comfort women.
In addition, the Japanese government decided to offer 1 billion yen as an apology. The South Korean and Japanese governments confirmed that the comfort women issue will be resolved “finally and irreversibly” on the premise that these measures will be implemented steadily.
Therefore, the issue of “comfort women” in the Japanese military cannot be said to have been resolved unless “projects for recovering the honor and dignity and healing the psychological wounds of all former comfort women” – as expressed in the joint statement on the comfort women agreement – were implemented, as both ministers said at the press conference.
However, just three weeks after the agreement, Abe told the Japanese National Assembly, “There was no document found that the comfort women were forcibly taken away.” This statement directly challenged the goals in the Japan-South Korea agreement on “recovering the honor and dignity and healing the psychological wounds” of the victims. About nine months after the agreement, the South Korean side asked Abe to “send a letter of apology directly to the former comfort women.” Abe’s reply was dismissive, saying, “I have no intention of apologizing again.”
Three days after the statement was announced, Sankei Shimbun, a Japanese newspaper that has right-wing tendencies, cited people close to the prime minister in reporting that “the comfort women agreement was a gamble that Prime Minister Abe makes to keep South Korea silent.” In other words, the Japanese government at the time viewed the agreement as more of a political strategy than a sincere apology to the comfort women victims.
When the U.N. Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women deliberated on Japan in February 2016, the committee strongly criticized the Japanese government’s response to the issue of “comfort women” in the Japanese military.
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At this committee meeting, which was held about two months after the agreement, the Japanese government’s foreign affairs deliberation officer said, that “’forceful taking away’ of comfort women by the military and government authorities could not be confirmed in any of the documents that the Government of Japan was able to identify” in its own research. He also added that “the expression ‘sex-slaves’ contradicted the facts.”
In response, one of the U.N. Committee members said that “the answer of the delegation on the issue of comfort women was unacceptable and contradictory. On the one hand, the Government of Japan denied the existence of comfort women, while on another hand, the Government reached an agreement on that same issue.”
Through the government’s consistent denials after the joint statement, it was Japan who broke the spirit and promise of the comfort women agreement in the first place.
Another problem is that the deal targets “all former comfort women.” However, there are comfort women victims who did not accept the 2015 agreement. They filed a lawsuit against the Japanese government. This means that the premise of the Japan-South Korea agreement on “all former comfort women” was broken from the very beginning.
The results of the lawsuit came out in January and April 2021. In the January trial, the comfort women victims won the case, and the Japanese government ignored the ruling, so the comfort women’s victory was confirmed. In the verdict in April, the court granted Japan sovereign immunity, and the comfort women victim’s lawsuit was defeated. However, both trials acknowledged the victims’ claims that the Japanese forcibly took the comfort women and that the comfort women were actually sex slaves. The invocation of sovereign immunity does not mean that Japan has no responsibility in the issue of comfort women, but merely states the principle that a sovereign state (South Korea, in this case) cannot judge other sovereign states. Paradoxically, however, the April ruling made it clear that Japan’s sovereignty took the lead in the comfort women issue.
What emerged from this unfavorable situation in Japan was renewed claims, including by some Koreans, that comfort women were not sex slaves, but only sex workers – that is, prostitutes. These claims are not a new argument, but assertions that emerged from the Japanese right-wing, which opposes the Japanese government’s recognition of the forced deportation of comfort women by the Japanese military through the Kono Statement in 1993.
The Japanese right-wing argues that the comfort women were equivalent to the state-recognized licensed prostitutes under Japan’s licensed prostitution system. A licensed prostitute refers to a prostitute who signs a contract with a brothel owner and operates publicly. Such assertions – most famously made by Harvard Professor J. Mark Ramseyer in an article published earlier this year, which sparked a huge backlash – had appeared in Japan after 1993 and began to spread in earnest through a book called “Anti-Japanese Tribalism,” published in 2019 in South Korea.
But these claims are false. Under the system of licensed prostitution, it was essential for pimps and women to exchange contracts to protect the minimum rights of women. However, in the case of South Korean comfort women, there is no evidence of such contracts. Even Ramseyer admitted that “I haven’t been able to find it.” Other evidence, however, directly refutes the idea that the comfort women operated in the same way as Japan’s licensed prostitutes. “Without any documents, they buy the daughters of poor peasants like human trafficking, make them work, and throw them away like slaves. In this way, there was no hope of gaining freedom until death,” a Japanese military surgeon wrote in his war diary (published in 1983). The testimony from this Japanese military doctor strongly supports the assertion that the comfort women were sex slaves. The same surgeon also describes a scene where a deceived woman was forcibly turned into a comfort woman.
I have compiled and published the tragic testimonies of these Korean comfort women, recounted by former Japanese soldiers, with translations in both Korean and Japanese. Based on these accounts, most comfort women were taken to the battlefield after being deceived into thinking they would be earning salaries working in restaurants for the military or assisting nurses at military hospitals. Japanese soldiers also recorded the testimonies of women who escaped and were killed.
In early 1938, the Japanese government’s Ministry of Home Affairs selected recruiters secretly and issued an official document instructing them to recruit women and move women to the brothels abroad. The recruiters ran these brothels, which were euphemistically named “comfort centers.” This is clear evidence that the Japanese government and the Japanese military managed the military brothels as well as the brothel recruiters. A number of other official documents have been found indicating that the Japanese government and the Japanese military decided to set up the military brothels and operate them together.
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The Japanese were harsher on women in the occupied territories. After expelling the Dutch army and occupying Indonesia, Japanese forces took more than 60 Dutch women who had been captured and turned them into sex slaves. The mastermind was sentenced to death by a local military tribunal after the war. Many of these official records remain.
In China and the Philippines, as well, women were forced into sexual servitude. A Japanese military doctor reported that the Japanese military, which had occupied a village in China, ordered the village chief to take women and make them sex slaves. The comfort women regulation of one Japanese military unit (issued in 1940) says that one comfort woman was assigned for every 100 soldiers. One comfort woman would sexually service 70-80 soldiers on holidays or the day before a planned battle. Women were not given the right to refuse. This regulation also stipulated that the comfort women were not allowed to travel farther than 200 meters in all directions. These official documents clearly show that the “comfort women” of the Japanese military were, in fact, not free to either leave or refuse sex work. They were sexual slaves.
Under the 2015 comfort women agreement, Japan paid 1 billion yen to the comfort women victims. But it ignored more important responsibilities, such as educating young people or taking measures to prevent secondary harm to victims. On the contrary, the Japanese government has taken the lead in the secondary persecution of the victims. Although Japan is a developed country, it does not have a National Human Rights Commission, much less a system in place to listen to the voices of the victims of Japanese imperialism and provide redress.
Even if there is a state-to-state agreement in place, the individual right to claim restitution cannot be extinguished. Claims of Japanese privilege simply seek to avoid fundamental responsibility for human rights issues established by historical facts.
10. N. Korea has more than 100,000 people with COVID-19 symptoms quarantined in state facilities
Another important potential indicator. If this is accurate it may only be a matter of time before there is an outbreak the regime cannot control.
N. Korea has more than 100,000 people with COVID-19 symptoms quarantined in state facilities - Daily NK
At least 185,000 civilians with COVID-19 symptoms have been placed in isolation since North Korea closed its border last year
North Korea continues to claim to have had no confirmed cases of COVID-19. However, there are currently over 100,000 North Koreans isolated in state facilities with high fever, breathing problems and other symptoms of COVID-19.
According to a high-ranking Daily NK source in North Korea on Thursday, around 104,000 suspected cases of COVID-19 were in isolation at state facilities as of early November. These people have been housed in facilities throughout the country, including in South Pyongan Province, the two Hwanghae provinces, North Hamgyong Province, Yanggang Province, Chagang Province, and Nampo.
The Central Emergency Anti-epidemic Headquarters receives weekly statistical reports on the number of admissions, discharges and deaths from the facilities. The headquarters reports these statistics to the leadership on a weekly and quarterly basis.
This means at least 185,000 civilians with COVID-19 symptoms have been isolated in state facilities since North Korea closed its border last year. Given that North Korea operates separate facilities for military personnel and high-ranking cadres, the actual number of quarantined individuals is likely higher.
North Korea places people in home quarantine if they display symptoms such as a fever of 37.5 degrees or higher, cough or respiratory distress, and observes them for seven days. If the symptoms persist after seven days, the patients are designated “suspected cases” of COVID-19.
If the patient’s symptoms do not improve during the home quarantine period, the authorities force them into state quarantine facilities. Health authorities provide a “suspected case” diagnosis document to the family, who must submit the document to the patient’s place of employment.
Disease control officials testing drivers for COVID-19 symptoms in Pyongyang’s Manggyongdae District. / Image: Rodong Sinmun
As late as last year, North Koreans could avoid being sent to facilities if they paid a bribe. However, since the Eighth Party Congress in January of this year, the mood has shifted so that suspected cases must unconditionally enter isolation facilities, regardless of their position or rank.
The problem is that patients in quarantine facilities often worsen and die due to the lack of proper treatment and poor conditions in the facilities.
The facilities are unable to properly serve the patients as they lack adequate winter heating. Facility administrators provide people with thin blankets, but few use them because of lice.
Most patients use blankets sent by their families or purchased separately from doctors or facility managers, but even this is insufficient in winter when it is so cold that patients must put vinyl coverings over their blankets to sleep.
The meals patients receive twice a day — in the morning and afternoon — are reportedly quite meager as well.
They regularly receive rice mixed with corn and salted soup with cabbage. But when the power goes out, they cannot receive even this, getting undercooked rice and a cold soup with salted cabbage instead. Nevertheless, the source said the quarantine facilities take KPW 500 to KPW 1,200 in meal fees from patients when they are discharged.
Patients in the facilities cannot receive visits; however, if families send money, facility administrators can and will provide the patients with outside food.
Meanwhile, according to the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region’s 44th weekly COVID-19 situation report, North Korea’s Ministry of Public Health reported that 44,830 people had been tested for COVID-19 as of Nov. 4, with a total of 89,386 samples collected. All tested “negative,” however.
Nevertheless, North Korea said 109 of the people who received COVID-19 tests between Oct. 29 and Nov. 4 were suffering from “influenza-like illness or severe acute respiratory infections.”
11. North Korea's food prices fall as new goods hit the market
We need some north Korean economic experts to interpret this and I can count the number of such experts on one hand (and still have a finger or two left over).
Excerpts:
Among the major reasons for the falling food prices is the fall harvest. Prices are dropping as farmers in need of money begin selling food in the market during the October and November harvest season.
Meanwhile, the source said some locals and donju — the country’s wealthy entrepreneurial class — are hoarding food as food prices fall. However, he said they are doing so carefully as the government is cracking down on bulk purchases of food.
The source further speculated that with locals buying up food in fear of food shortages next year, food prices may begin to rise again soon.
North Korea's food prices fall as new goods hit the market - Daily NK
Some locals in Hyesan are hoarding food as prices fall, despite government crackdowns on bulk purchases of food
The market price of rice in North Korea recently fell from around KPW 5,000 a kilogram to around KPW 4,200 to 4,500 per kilogram, Daily NK has learned.
A Daily NK source in Yanggang Province said Wednesday that, after falling slightly earlier this month, food prices in markets in Hyesan have recently fallen even further.
According to the source, rice was selling at KPW 4,200 a kilogram and corn at KPW 2,100 in Hyesan markets from Nov. 8. This essentially amounts to 28.8% and 8.7% drops in prices from the previous week, respectively, when the prices were KPW 5,300 and KPW 2,300.
In major cities such as the capital Pyongyang and Sinuiju in North Pyongan Province, rice prices have dropped as well.
In Pyongyang, the price of rice recently fell from KPW 4,900 on Nov. 1 to KPW 4,500, while in Sinuiju, it fell from KPW 4,900 to KPW 4,550. However, the price of corn has held steady at KPW 1,900 in both cities.
Rice planting in North Korea. / Image: Rodong Sinmun
Worth noting is that rice is cheaper in Hyesan than it is in Pyongyang or Sinuiju. The price of rice in Hyesan is usually higher than in the other two cities.
The source said big container trucks laden with food have recently been arriving in Hyesan from Pukchang, South Hamgyong Province. These supplies of food have apparently impacted prices in Hyesan as they hit the market.
The price of rice in Pukchang has dropped to KPW 3,800 a kilogram, or otherwise in the KPW 3,000 range. Corn is selling at KPW 1,800 a kilogram, slightly cheaper than in other regions.
Among the major reasons for the falling food prices is the fall harvest. Prices are dropping as farmers in need of money begin selling food in the market during the October and November harvest season.
Meanwhile, the source said some locals and donju — the country’s wealthy entrepreneurial class — are hoarding food as food prices fall. However, he said they are doing so carefully as the government is cracking down on bulk purchases of food.
The source further speculated that with locals buying up food in fear of food shortages next year, food prices may begin to rise again soon.
12. Lessons from history: the Taft-Katsura meeting
History from Donald Kirk. I would go so far as to argue that if Rusk and Bonesteel did not find the 38th parallel on that National Geographic map in 1945 we would not be discussing Korea now because no South Korea would have likely existed and the entire peninsula would have come under communist domination.
Lessons from history: the Taft-Katsura meeting
By Donald Kirk
The names of pivotal dates and places in history should appear fairly clear. Korea's history, however, is not so simple. Take the meeting in July 1905 between the U.S. secretary of war, William Howard Taft, and Katsura Taro, who served as the prime minister of Japan during the period in which Japan assumed control of Korea in 1905, and then in 1910, made the entire peninsula a colony.
The Taft-Katsura meeting is hardly mentioned in U.S. history texts, but in their discussion in Tokyo, they vaguely agreed that Japan would hold sway over the Korean Peninsula, while the U.S. would retain the Philippines free from Japanese interference.
That understanding, well known in Korea though not in the U.S., came up again when Lee Jae-myung, running to succeed President Moon Jae-in in the March presidential election, gave a lesson in history to Jon Ossoff, the winner of a run-off election last January for the U.S. Senate. Ossoff's victory in Georgia was crucial in insuring the Democratic Party's tenuous hold over the Senate. In Korea, Lee, as the candidate of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea, will if elected build on Moon's efforts at reconciliation with North Korea.
Lee, however, offered a somewhat simplistic view of the conversation between Taft and Katsura. He referred to an "agreement" when, in point of fact, there was no formal agreement. There were unclassified notes on the meeting that happened to be discovered nearly a decade later by an American scholar. Lee attributed Japan's takeover of Korea to that alleged agreement.
One thing is sure: Japan had designs on Korea long before Taft and Katsura talked about ways to end Japan's war with Russia, in which the Korean Peninsula was the major prize. Korea had also been at the heart of the Sino-Japanese War, which ended in 1895 with Japan defeating China, taking over Formosa/Taiwan and asserting authority over Korea during the final stages of the Joseon Kingdom (1392-1910).
The U.S. went along with Japan viewing Korea in 1905 as their "protectorate." Neither that assurance nor Japanese disinterest in the Philippines was pivotal, however, since Japan already had Korea in its clutches and the U.S. had driven the Spanish out of the Philippines and then defeated Philippine nationalist forces.
The Taft-Katsura meeting was a prelude to negotiations chaired by U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt that culminated at the Portsmouth naval yard in Maine in September 1905 with the signing of the treaty ending the Russo-Japanese War. The Japanese had triumphed, defeating the Russian fleet in the straits between Korea and Japan. For overseeing the settlement to the war, Roosevelt won the Nobel Peace Prize.
For Korea, the real lesson of the Taft-Katsura "memorandum," as the notes on their talks are sometimes called, is that the U.S. historically has overlooked Korea's interests versus those of the three surrounding great powers, China, Russia and Japan. Similarly, the deal between the U.S. and the Soviet Union for dividing the Korean Peninsula at the 38th parallel after the Japanese surrender in World War II shows the U.S. tendency to see Korea as a secondary concern in resolving global or regional conflict.
Again, however, Lee, in his history lesson to Senator Ossoff, fudges facts when he blames the Korean War on the U.S. for masterminding the North-South division. He glosses over who invaded whom, and which totalitarian powers endorsed the invasion.
It's true, had Korea not been divided, Kim Il-sung would not have ordered an invasion. It's not at all clear, though, who would have led a united Korea after the Japanese surrender and whether the peninsula would have existed in peace or been roiled by civil war with sides supported by China, Russia, or the U.S. and their allies, as in the Korean War.
Now Korea faces another critical moment, when the South is urging all sides to come together on a declaration stating that the Korean War is over. Sure, the shooting stopped with the 1953 armistice signed at Panmunjeom, but that's not enough for those who say, "Yes, but we've never declared it's really, really over, much less signed a peace treaty."
Will the U.S. again be blamed for wondering whether such a proposal plays into the hands of North Korea and its big-power allies, China and Russia? Should the U.S. agree to a statement as a favor to South Korea's President Moon, who wants to leave it as his legacy? So far no one knows if North Korea's Kim Jong-un and China's Xi Jinping will sign anything. One thing is sure: The blame game will go on, whoever's really to blame.
13. Time for South Korea to abandon the “middle power” moniker
Just imagine how powerful South Korea would be if there was not a threat from the north and if it was unified.
Excerpts:
The middle power concept will never really die. Diplomats and savvy politicians have long known that having a catch phrase or coin term opens space for dialogue and sometimes persuasion. This is how the modern term emerged as Canadian and Australian representatives to the 1945 United Nations Conference on International Organisation in San Francisco sought to secure greater influence in global governance.
South Korea’s relationship with Australia is marked by long-term disinterest and underinvestment by both sides. Ministerial dialogues and intermittent sponsored track-1.5 and track-2 dialogues regularly rehash the same basic points. Yet middle power rhetoric, and its utilitarian façade of similarity, understanding, and shared interests, provides the semblance of a much deeper, more meaningful relationship. No politician or diplomat will give up such a useful ploy. Academics and think-tankers who fear abandoning the term can rest reassured, indubitably there’ll be another Australia-Korea middle power dialogue around the corner.
It’s been a whirlwind middle power ride. Under this diplomatic aegis South Korea created the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), secured hosting of the Green Climate Fund, and became a member of the OECD-DAC. It played with a number of initiatives to alleviate regional security risks, played roles in the G20 and G7, and established MIKTA. At the same time, it failed to follow the lead of other middle powers in holding up the rule of law, let its early mover green credentials wane, and let North Korea cloud and distract its middle power propensity. Now, it’s time to move on. It’s time to abandon the middle power term.
Time for South Korea to abandon the “middle power” moniker
In the end, it’s not a term that helps people to understand policy and policy choices.
It’s time to stop. Please stop writing papers on South Korea as a middle power. For an author who was an early advocate for South Korea to fulfil its role as a middle power in international society, and over the years wrote several papers and op-eds encouraging it to do so, it’s a hard thing to say. But it’s really gone too far. It’s time to abandon the term.
A crude Google scholar search shows that as the new millennium dawned, there were a mere 84 works containing the term “middle power” and Korea. It has grown every year since. In 2019, it surpassed the year-on-year total of Australia and Canada. In 2020, it reached a peak of 782. If current trends continue, the total number of works over all time containing the term “middle power” and Korea (9680) will soon surpass Australia (10,100) and Canada (11,200).
It may be a source of pride to some that South Korea will soon surpass Australia and Canada. South Korea will be the middle power. Yet, the evolution of these two states shows that abandoning the term is actually a natural progression. After an intense period of middle power activity in the 1990s, both Australia and Canada went through periods when the term fell from grace and replacements were put forward. Entrepreneurial power, pivot power, regional power, great power, innovative power, top-20 nation, or significant power – anything but middle power.
Moon Jae-in, President of South Korea (COP26/Flickr)
Abandoning the term is also backed up by some weighty arguments.
First, there is no clear definition of what constitutes a middle power. Over the last twenty years, China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Iran, the Vatican, even Microsoft or its ilk, have all been labelled as middle powers. The jumble of definitions essentially makes any claim meaningless.
Second, the vast majority of research focuses on defining or redefining the concept in the context of one state or another. Thinking about what makes a middle power and providing innovative colourful academic interpretations is all very well, but in the end doesn’t help understand policy and policy choices.
Diplomats and savvy politicians have long known that having a catch phrase or coin term opens space for dialogue and sometimes persuasion.
Third, a number of analysts have pointed out that the middle power moment is over. Increased tension between China and the United States makes characteristic middle power initiatives of mediation, facilitation, institution building or norm strengthening substantially more difficult. It’s not insignificant that recognised periods of Australian and Canadian middle power activity occurred at the end of the Second World War and the Cold War – not as tension was rising.
The middle power concept will never really die. Diplomats and savvy politicians have long known that having a catch phrase or coin term opens space for dialogue and sometimes persuasion. This is how the modern term emerged as Canadian and Australian representatives to the 1945 United Nations Conference on International Organisation in San Francisco sought to secure greater influence in global governance.
South Korea’s relationship with Australia is marked by long-term disinterest and underinvestment by both sides. Ministerial dialogues and intermittent sponsored track-1.5 and track-2 dialogues regularly rehash the same basic points. Yet middle power rhetoric, and its utilitarian façade of similarity, understanding, and shared interests, provides the semblance of a much deeper, more meaningful relationship. No politician or diplomat will give up such a useful ploy. Academics and think-tankers who fear abandoning the term can rest reassured, indubitably there’ll be another Australia-Korea middle power dialogue around the corner.
It’s been a whirlwind middle power ride. Under this diplomatic aegis South Korea created the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), secured hosting of the Green Climate Fund, and became a member of the OECD-DAC. It played with a number of initiatives to alleviate regional security risks, played roles in the G20 and G7, and established MIKTA. At the same time, it failed to follow the lead of other middle powers in holding up the rule of law, let its early mover green credentials wane, and let North Korea cloud and distract its middle power propensity. Now, it’s time to move on. It’s time to abandon the middle power term.
14. Experts: China May Attempt to Use North Korea to Counter US
Experts: China May Attempt to Use North Korea to Counter US
November 17, 2021 11:12 PM
UPDATE November 18, 2021 9:11 PM
WASHINGTON —
Experts believe Beijing may come to see North Korea as leverage for challenging Washington's position on multiple issues, including the U.S. goal to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.
"In light of the great power competition, China sees North Korea as leverage more than ever," said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center.
If, for example, the U.S. wants China to support additional sanctions on North Korea, "China is unlikely to comply unless (the) U.S. reciprocates on some other fronts," she added.
Evans Revere, a former State Department official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea, said, "Because of the downturn in U.S.-China relations, some in the PRC probably see the DPRK, which shares China's opposition to the U.S. military presence in the region, as a strategic asset, even if North Korea's nuclear status makes the Chinese nervous." DPRK stands for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and PRC stands for China's official name, the People's Republic of China.
Revere continued: "With the growth of Sino-U.S. rivalry, this view is likely to remain for the foreseeable future."
Patrick Cronin, the Hudson Institute's Asia-Pacific Security chair, says he does not think Beijing views North Korea's nuclear weapons "as an asset," but it "seems happy to exploit" North Korea's existence to divert attention from itself and "keep the United States busy with multiple challenges."
Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, told VOA's Korean Service in an email on Thursday that "China has all along been committed to maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, realizing denuclearization, and resolving problems through dialogue and consultation."
The spokesman continued: "To settle the Peninsula issue requires a balanced solution to the legitimate concerns of all parties. Parties concerned should actively work for the two major goals of denuclearization of the Peninsula and the establishment of a peace mechanism on the Peninsula by following the dual-track approach and the principle of phased and synchronized actions.
"China will continue to work with all parties to make unremitting efforts to promote the political settlement of the Peninsula issue and achieve stability on the Peninsula in the long run."
US-China rivalry
Rivalry between Washington and Beijing has intensified as China expands its global influence. Beijing is "willing to confront the United States and other countries in areas where interest diverge," said the Pentagon report.
Countering China's military assertion in the Indo-Pacific region, decoupling global supply chains from Beijing, and preserving a rules-based international order have been Washington's top priorities as it seeks to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.
President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first one-on-one virtual summit as the leaders of their countries on Monday.
"The two leaders discussed the complex nature of relations between our two countries and the importance of managing competition responsibly" in order "to ensure that competition does not veer into conflict," said the White House. The two also discussed "key regional challenges, including DPRK," according to the White House.
"I have no doubt that the U.S. made clear its determination to denuclearize the DPRK" during the Biden-Xi meeting, Revere said. "There is also no indication that Xi offered to cooperate on North Korea in exchange for U.S. concessions in other areas. Previous Chinese statements have implied trade-offs like this, and this kind of a 'deal' would not sit well with Washington."
Hours after the Biden-Xi virtual meeting, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the U.S. and China needed to coordinate closely on North Korea.
"We have seen a series of tests by North Korea," said Sullivan at a webinar on Tuesday hosted by the Brookings Institution. "The United States has indicated we're prepared to engage good faith in diplomacy if North Korea is prepared to do the same, so coordination around that issue is also very important."
North Korea has tested multiple missiles in recent months, including rail- and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
Different positions on denuclearization
Experts also noted a diversion between Washington and Beijing on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
"China clearly does not share the same interest as the United States when it comes to denuclearization, Cronin said. And China's recent moves to expand its own nuclear arsenal suggests it has other priorities."
The Pentagon estimated China could have 700 nuclear warheads by 2027 and 1,000 by 2030, according to its report.
According to Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Chinese priorities have been "no war" on the Korean Peninsula, "no collapse" of the North Korean regime that could trigger refugee inflow into China, and "no nukes." In contrast, U.S. priorities have been "no nukes, no war."
"Differing priorities illuminate the limits of cooperation and tactical differences in diplomacy toward denuclearization," said Manning.
China's push for sanctions relief
China, North Korea's most significant trading partner, has been pushing for sanctions relief for Pyongyang. The sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council target nuclear weapons proliferation activities and human rights violations.
Patricia Kim, a fellow with expertise in Chinese foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, said divergent U.S. and Chinese priorities on North Korea have resulted in the two having "different views on the sequencing of denuclearization and sanctions relief."
China's priority to maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula led it to focus "first on North Korea's political and economic integration into the region," Kim said.
China, with Russia, urged the U.N. Security Council to lift several economic sanctions on North Korea in a draft resolution submitted earlier in the month.
The diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang has been stalled since their October 2019 meeting in Stockholm.
The Biden administration has been offering talks with North Korea "without preconditions," but Pyongyang has largely resisted the offer.
15. North Korea’s Moral Challenge to President Biden
Unfortunately it is Kim who blocks humanitarian assistance. The ROK, the US, and the international community are more concerned with the welfare of the Korean people in the north than is Kim Jong-un.
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These reports give a window into Kim’s extremely despotic and secretive regime. Aid distribution must never be left to it or any North Korean subject to its control. According to HRNK, “food supplies are known to be withheld from those that need it most and provided to those who are categorized as loyal or useful to the regime.” Nor can the United Nations be counted on to ensure international aid won’t be diverted. U.N. agencies routinely sub-contract locals, who, in the Middle East, have been shown to discriminate against disfavored minorities. There is simply no civic society group within North Korea able to take on this effort.
The Biden administration should prepare for the worst case scenario in North Korea this winter by insisting that private American and Western aid groups, including religious ones, be allowed free passage to distribute clearly marked American packages of U.S. aid. Safeguards must be put in place to closely monitor this process. Anything less would only strengthen Kim’s military first policies.
North Korea’s Moral Challenge to President Biden
Commentary
China and Russia are demanding that the United States agree to lift U.N. economic sanctions against North Korea, which were put in place in 2006 to stop its nuclear weapons programs.
Just last month, Pyongyang fired a newly developed ballistic missile from a submarine in its fifth round of recent weapons tests, violating the sanctions anew. Kim Jong-un’s two trading partners don’t address these serious threats to American interests, but argue that North Korea’s 25.6 million people will face certain famine this winter.
North Korean starvation is real. Not only sanctions, but the failure of the country’s collective farming methods contribute to chronic food shortages. This year’s drought and COVID-19 may turn out to be the last straws. The Kim dynasty juche principle of “self reliance” is as fraudulent as the communist economic theories and personality cult that form the basis of its governing philosophy.
Washington has so far held firm on the sanctions, stressing that it remains ready to meet with Pyongyang without preconditions to negotiate peace. But, as desperate North Koreans begin streaming across that country’s borders with wrenching reports, as happened during the 1990s’ famine, the Biden administration will likely find this stance untenable.
The administration should keep the sanctions and devise a plan to ensure that food aid reaches the needy civilians. Transparency and monitoring any aid program in North Korea will be a challenge, given Kim’s pathological secrecy and singular priority of regime survival. What we can be sure of is that North Korea is one of the world’s most closed societies, with rights and freedoms repressed across the board.
The State Department’s own human rights report asserts that capital punishment is the penalty for “providing information regarding economic, social, and political developments routinely published elsewhere,” which North Korea calls an “anti-state” crime. Independent media is banned, and the internet is available to only a select few in Pyongyang. All print and broadcast media, publishing, and online media is controlled through the Propaganda and Agitation Department of the Korea Workers’ Party.
The Washington-based Committee on Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) found that “all citizens are required to participate in monitored political meetings and regular self-criticism sessions to demonstrate their loyalty to the Kim family, and that failure to participate enthusiastically may be punished, including through forced labor, internal exile, detention, or denial of food and medical attention.” Furthermore, “the government installed monitoring programs on every smartphone and tablet that log every webpage visited and randomly take undeletable screenshots.”
A new submarine-launched ballistic missile is seen during a test in this undated photo, released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Oct. 19, 2021. (KCNA via Reuters)
How, then, can the U.S. government know whether there is a famine and whether its aid is helping civilians, and not the military? As author Melanie Kirkpatrick shows in “Escape from North Korea: The Untold Story of Asia’s Underground Railroad,” government defectors and civilians who manage the harrowing escape across China’s border, and then out of China, are a critical source of information for the outside world. If caught trying to cross the border, they risk being summarily killed or criminally executed, and those caught in China risk deportation to certain detention and punishment. To give one example from the State’s report, defectors said that North Korea carried out infanticide, or made mothers commit infanticide, if they were forcibly repatriated from China.
Nevertheless, some North Korean defectors do succeed and a revealing new report by the UK group Korea Future is based on their interviews. The report focuses on two remaining religious groups, Christians and Shamans who practice magic healing and fortune telling. These communities, though mostly confined within small family groupings, are highly significant. They represent the only organizations known to exist independent of the North Korean government. Their persecution not only attests to the regime’s militant atheism, but to its totalitarianism.
Though Christianity’s vibrancy before the communist takeover in 1948 earned Pyongyang the name, “Jerusalem of the East,” most of the Christians there now are reported to have been recently converted while temporarily in China. A few house churches are known to exist, including one of 16 members all of whom, including its leader, were baptized in China.
Severe punishment awaits those accused of praying in community or possessing religious objects. One 50-year-old woman is reported by an eyewitness to have been beaten for having a Bible. Life sentences in a prison camp is the fate of three generations of another Christian family, including a two-year-old child, revealed Korea Future.
Collective farms in North Hwanghae Province, close to Pyongyang, as seen from the road between Pyongyang and Kaesong, North Korea, on April 25, 2007. After being ravaged by famine in the 1990s, North Korea again faces serious food shortages. Only 17 percent of the land in North Korea is arable, one of the lowest ratios in the world, according to the U.N.’s World Food Program (WFP). (AFP/Getty Images)
Due process and evidence are not needed to convict believers. Korea Future reported that Christians and Shamans are tortured with low tech methods, deliberate food poisoning, forced squat jumps, position torture, rape, beatings with logs and fists, and sleep deprivation. A former detainee observed Christians who huddled for prayer in the corner of their cell to avoid surveillance cameras. One time they were caught and beaten every morning thereafter for 20 days.
Satellite imagery, key in identifying China’s mass detention of Uyghurs, shows prison camps in North Korea. A HRNK report this month provides high resolution satellite photos of a camp near escape routes into China, revealing rows of prisoners who work as slaves in military supply factories. HRNK director Greg Scarlatoiu told the UK Daily Mail that these prisoners are subjected to “a relentless vicious cycle of forced labour and induced malnutrition.” He noted that political crimes are punished more severely, with one known prisoner weighing 66 pounds before he died, two years after sentencing.
These reports give a window into Kim’s extremely despotic and secretive regime. Aid distribution must never be left to it or any North Korean subject to its control. According to HRNK, “food supplies are known to be withheld from those that need it most and provided to those who are categorized as loyal or useful to the regime.” Nor can the United Nations be counted on to ensure international aid won’t be diverted. U.N. agencies routinely sub-contract locals, who, in the Middle East, have been shown to discriminate against disfavored minorities. There is simply no civic society group within North Korea able to take on this effort.
The Biden administration should prepare for the worst case scenario in North Korea this winter by insisting that private American and Western aid groups, including religious ones, be allowed free passage to distribute clearly marked American packages of U.S. aid. Safeguards must be put in place to closely monitor this process. Anything less would only strengthen Kim’s military first policies.
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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Nina Shea is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute where she directs the Center for Religious Freedom. For twelve years, she served as a commissioner on the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom. An international human-rights lawyer for over thirty years, Ms. Shea undertakes scholarship and recommends policies for the advancement of individual religious freedom and other human rights in U.S. foreign policy. She advocates extensively in defense of those persecuted for their religious beliefs and identities and on behalf of diplomatic measures to end religious repression and violence abroad, whether from state actors or extremist groups.
