Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“I told you once that I was searching for the nature of evil. I think I’ve come close to defining it: a lack of empathy. It’s the one characteristic that connects all the defendants. A genuine incapacity to feel with their fellow man. Evil, I think, is the absence of empathy.”

– G. M Gilbert

“Do not be too moral. You may cheat yourself out of much life. Aim above morality. Be not simply good; be good for something.”

– Henry David Thoreau

"America was born of revolt, flourished on dissent, became great through experimentation."

– Henry Steele Commager

1. U.S. urged to wage political warfare in China to counter Beijing’s influence activities

2. Marco Rubio: An Americas First Foreign Policy

3. Hamas Turns Hostage Releases Into a Humiliating Spectacle for Israel

4. ‘My hopes were 50-50’: Families await return of 5 Thai hostages released from Hamas captivity

5. Trump Blames DEI, Democrats for Deadly Plane Crash

6. Trump blames DEI, Army pilot error for deadly Black Hawk collision

7. Shocking near miss day before American Airlines plane crash in DC as jet dodges helicopter in midair

8. Control tower at National Airport understaffed before deadly collision

9. Washington Crash Renews Concerns About Air Safety Lapses

10. Top Army aviators were on routine flight when helo collided with jet

11. The West must study the success of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces

12. Ukraine Special Operations Forces and the Lessons Learned for Large-Scale Combat Operations

13. The Tech Revolution and Irregular Warfare: Leveraging Commercial Innovation for Great Power Competition

14. ‘Evil must not win’ — how Ukraine’s female partisans resist Russian occupation

15. Gaza checkpoint to be staffed by scores of armed American contractors

16. NDIA POLICY POINTS: How to Best Support Special Operations Forces

17. Pentagon scrambles to block DeepSeek after employees connect to Chinese servers

18. Senators grilled Army secretary nominee for 2 hours. Quality-of-life issues barely came up.

19. Gabbard and Patel hearings display diverging views of reality, history along partisan lines

20. China makes rare-earth discovery: "This changes everything"

21. The Case for Certified Strategic Planners in the U.S. Government

22. Philippine president offers a deal to China: Stop sea aggression and I'll return missiles to US

23. Sweden to provide Ukraine with $1.2 billion military aid package

24. US foreign aid freeze is upending global aid and the work of contractors

25. Crimson Moon Rising Part 2 of 4: The Rescue

26. Steel, Sweat, and Silicon: Defense Dominance in the Age of Artificial General Intelligence

27. A Prisoner of War’s Old Fashioned

28. Norway’s government collapses over EU energy dispute

29. Hada Rushed to Hospital for Urgent Care as Nobel Peace Prize Nomination Confirmed

30. China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 30, 2025

31. Can a Critic of the Deep State Run the Deep State?

1. U.S. urged to wage political warfare in China to counter Beijing’s influence activities

I wish Professor Lind (who is also known for her work with Dr. Bruce Bennett on the collapse of north Korea) had included some emphasis on Chinese political warfare in South Korea and north Korea's political warfare against the ROK and the ROK/US alliance.

But it is about time someone takes this stand and informs Congress. But with all the other news this will only be reported by journalists such as Bill Gertz who cares about these issues.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/jan/30/u-urged-wage-political-warfare-china-counter-beiji/?mc_cid=04e2c3da0c

U.S. urged to wage political warfare in China to counter Beijing’s influence activities

Communist Party's United Front arm threatens democracy, freedom, lawmakers told

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz

By - The Washington Times - Thursday, January 30, 2025

China is subverting the United States through multibillion-dollar influence campaigns and U.S. political warfare operations inside China are needed to counter the activities, a panel of experts told Congress on Thursday.

Four specialists in Chinese influence and intelligence activities told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the operations range from recruiting university professors and corrupting American officials to cyber and internet influence operations, technology theft and coercive political activities.

The Senate hearing was one of the first of its kind by Congress to examine in detail the activities of Beijing’s United Front Work Department, a Chinese Communist Party organization engaged in aggressive political influence operations targeting a wide range of American institutions.

The activities include using Chinese business executives to shape American policies, providing paid visits to China, hiring U.S. consultants that lobby for Chinese policies, paying university professors for research, and corrupting U.S. politicians, local governments and even celebrities. The analysts urged lawmakers to rapidly increase U.S. government programs designed to identify and neutralize Beijing’s influence operations, including threatening to destabilize Chinese society.

Jennifer Lind, a professor at Dartmouth University, said China is conducting large-scale hostile influence operations against the United States to bolster its communist system, discredit democratic government and shape global norms in line with Beijing’s interests.

“A look at Chinese influence operations suggests their extent is vast,” Ms. Lind said. “The CCP conducts such operations through a massive government bureaucracy that includes agencies such as the United Work Front Department, the Propaganda Department, the Ministry of State Security, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries.”

Although difficult to fully estimate, Ms. Lind said Chinese funding for these activities ranges from $3 billion to $8 billion annually. Ms. Lind said the U.S. government needs to go on the offensive against China using various means to shape behavior by conducting counter-influence operations Beijing would view as intolerable.

“The U.S. government would convey privately to Beijing that if their influence operations violated the bounds of acceptable behavior, we would respond in kind: in other words, we might cross some of Beijing’s red lines,” Ms. Lind said.

China, she said, prefers that Washington wage a shadow influence conflict “far afield” — in the United States and other nations and no closer than Taiwan or Tibet. New, more aggressive American influence activities could target the Chinese people and foment domestic instability by seeking to develop popular movements against the regime.

“The CCP worries about its people mobilizing, getting ideas about democracy, and about economic and financial crises delegitimizing the regime,” Ms. Lind said. “If the United States were to push ideas about democracy, or to take steps that undermine the stability of the Chinese economy — for example, its real estate or banking sectors — that would be intolerable to the CCP.”

The goal of the operations would be to signal that the United States is ready to respond aggressively if China continues to undermine the U.S. system, she said.

Melanie Hart, a former State Department official specializing in China, also said the United States and China are engaged in ideological competition that threatens democracy and freedom.

“If China prevails, the U.S. and world will be less free, less prosperous and less safe,” Ms. Hart said. “Beijing is deploying a range of tactics to achieve its objectives.”

Myopic focus

Ms. Hart said the closing of the State Department Global Engagement Center in December removed a key tool for combating what she said was China’s “information warfare” against the United States and its democratic allies. The center, designed to counter foreign disinformation, was shut down recently after Congress declined to reauthorize its activities over concerns the center was improperly censoring domestic conservative viewpoints.

The State Department needs to be empowered to wage “full-spectrum competition” against Chinese subversion, Ms. Hart said.

“We are battling to determine which system — ours or Beijing’s — prevails,” Ms. Hart said. “The stakes are astronomical. This is not the time to keep major levers of U.S. national power on the sidelines.”

“A myopic focus on chasing [People’s Republic of China] spies leaves most of our research unprotected as [China] deploys a range of tactics, infrastructures and human capital to acquire U.S. technology and know-how that rarely involve its security services,” Mr. Stoff testified. “While I was in the government, my support to counterintelligence elements in the FBI and DoD showed that those offices prioritized criminal investigations over leveraging operational approaches to deny and disrupt PRC state-directed technology transfer activities.”

Mr. Stoff said U.S. intelligence agencies have failed to understand, track, analyze and respond to United Front Work Department operations targeting technology. Other failures include a lack of understanding of China’s massive apparatus to recruit experts and exploit U.S. federally funded research.

“The U.S. government holds a prevailing view that the Chinese Communist Party’s united front is strictly a political influence apparatus,” he said.

Peter Mattis, a former intelligence official and longtime China-watcher, told the committee that many Americans have failed to understand and counter the decades-long influence activities.

“United Front work also is a tool of political struggle,” he said. “It is not just a question of activities that we would call propaganda or public diplomacy. Nor is it limited to what we would call covert action.”

Mr. Mattis said the Chinese are subverting the U.S. government policymaking process through their operations: “We should not accept many of these activities as being legitimate actions of a foreign state inside the United States or other countries, because the nature of the party’s objectives and United Front system’s explicit role in political struggle mean that they are not acceptable for democratic societies even when they are not illegal,” he said.

Mr. Mattis said the State Department and White House must provide guidance on aggressively countering Chinese activities in the United States, including the use of political warfare.

“We should remember the American way of modern political warfare emerged from the State Department,” he said. “The American approach to political warfare has been underpinned by the idea of providing a true experience of Americans to the world and that supporting people’s hunger for truth and meaning in their lives will create better conditions for U.S. national interests to be achieved.”

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch, Idaho Republican, said Chinese operations against the United States are increasing.

“The Chinese Communist Party has worked diligently to bring China to what it is today, and it did it the old-fashioned way; Chinese officials bribe, steal, and cheat at every opportunity to ensure that China comes out on top,” said Mr. Risch. “And we let them do it — virtually uninhibited. This has to stop.”

The hearing is aimed at developing legislative steps to close loopholes in foreign agents’ laws, restrict Chinese lobbying and increase counterintelligence against Beijing’s intelligence services, Mr. Risch said, adding that wide-ranging efforts will help “beat our authoritarian aggressors.”

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the ranking Democrat on the committee, said concerns about Chinese influence activities are bipartisan.

“Today, China is targeting and exploiting open societies with every tool that they have,” she said. “China’s leaders have made shaping global and local public opinion a priority. They have bought up entire foreign media companies located outside China to promote pro-Beijing propaganda around the world.”

Ms. Shaheen said China is spending billions of dollars to promote Russian propaganda and said more tools like the State Department’s Global Engagement Center are needed.

• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz

2. Marco Rubio: An Americas First Foreign Policy

My recommendation: America First. Allies Always. (With interests sufficiently aligned.)

I hope the SECSTATE will articulate a vision for each region of the world. But he is right to start in the much neglected western hemisphere. But our allies in other regions should not interpret this as neglecting them.

Excerpts:

Thankfully, the Western Hemisphere harbors more congruent interests than conflicting ones. Making America great again also means helping our neighbors achieve greatness. The threats Mr. Trump was elected to stop are threats to the nations of our hemisphere as well.

We share a common home. The safer, stronger and more prosperous that home becomes, the more all our nations stand to benefit. Together, there are few limits to what we can accomplish.

Marco Rubio: An Americas First Foreign Policy

U.S. diplomats have neglected the Western Hemisphere for too long.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/an-americas-first-foreign-policy-secretary-of-state-rubio-writes-western-hemisphere-too-long-neglected-a81707b0?mod=hp_opin_pos_4#cxrecs_s

By Marco Rubio

Jan. 30, 2025 4:55 pm ET

A skyline in Panama City, April 23, 2024. Photo: martin bernetti/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

When Donald Trump won his sweeping victory in November, he received a mandate to put America first. In the realm of diplomacy, this means paying closer attention to our own neighborhood—the Western Hemisphere.

It’s no accident that my first trip abroad as secretary of state, to Central America on Friday, will keep me in the hemisphere. This is rare among secretaries of state over the past century. For many reasons, U.S. foreign policy has long focused on other regions while overlooking our own. As a result, we’ve let problems fester, missed opportunities and neglected partners. That ends now.

President Trump’s foreign-policy agenda begins close to home. Among his top priorities is securing our borders and reversing the disastrous invasion abetted by the last administration. Diplomacy’s role in this effort is central. We need to work with countries of origin to halt and deter further migrant flows, and to accept the return of their citizens present in the U.S. illegally.

Some countries are cooperating with us enthusiastically—others, less so. The former will be rewarded. As for the latter, Mr. Trump has already shown that he is more than willing to use America’s considerable leverage to protect our interests. Just ask Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro.

Yet even when circumstances demand toughness, the president’s vision for the hemisphere remains positive. We see a prosperous region rife with opportunities. We can strengthen trade ties, create partnerships to control migration, and enhance our hemisphere’s security.

El Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama and the Dominican Republic—the countries I will visit on this trip—all stand to benefit tremendously from greater cooperation with the U.S. These nations were neglected by past administrations that prioritized the global over the local and pursued policies that accelerated China’s economic development, often at our neighbors’ expense.

We can reverse this. Covid exposed the fragility of America’s dependence on far-flung supply chains. Relocating our critical supply chains to the Western Hemisphere would clear a path for our neighbors’ economic growth and safeguard Americans’ own economic security.

Closer relationships with the U.S. lead to more jobs and higher growth in these countries. This reduces incentives for emigration from these countries while providing governments with revenue to fight crime and invest at home. As our regional partners build themselves up, they can more easily resist countries such as China that promise much but deliver little.

Mass migration has destabilized our entire region. Drug cartels—now correctly categorized, thanks to the president, as foreign terrorist organizations—are taking over our communities, sowing violence and poisoning our families with fentanyl. Illegitimate regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela are intentionally amplifying the chaos. All the while, the Chinese Communist Party uses diplomatic and economic leverage—such as at the Panama Canal—to oppose the U.S. and turn sovereign nations into vassal states.

I am confident that the countries I will soon visit will be ready partners. Like President Trump, their leaders are pragmatists who put their citizens first. And because they are pragmatists, they also know that there is much more to be gained from working with the U.S. than not.

This is an approach to foreign policy based on concrete shared interests, not vague platitudes or utopian ideologies. It is representative of the approach the State Department will be taking to all its international dealings. We will extend our hand to all nations of goodwill, in the confident expectation that they will recognize what we can do together.

Thankfully, the Western Hemisphere harbors more congruent interests than conflicting ones. Making America great again also means helping our neighbors achieve greatness. The threats Mr. Trump was elected to stop are threats to the nations of our hemisphere as well.

We share a common home. The safer, stronger and more prosperous that home becomes, the more all our nations stand to benefit. Together, there are few limits to what we can accomplish.

Mr. Rubio is U.S. secretary of state.

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Global View: The power that a rising and expanding America would inevitably acquire will be seen in Beijing and Moscow—and not only there—as a threat. Photo: Ju Peng/Alexander Kazakov/Associated Press/Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Appeared in the January 31, 2025, print edition as 'An Americas First Foreign Policy'.

3. Hamas Turns Hostage Releases Into a Humiliating Spectacle for Israel

The inhumanity and brutality of Hamas. There was no need to keep Thai hostages for 15 months. This is pure evil as described by psychologist G. M Gilbert who described the lack of empathy of the Nazi War criminals after his interview with them in Nuremberg as the fundamental definition of evil. His words are worth repeating:

“I told you once that I was searching for the nature of evil. I think I’ve come close to defining it: a lack of empathy. It’s the one characteristic that connects all the defendants. A genuine incapacity to feel with their fellow man. Evil, I think, is the absence of empathy.”

– G. M Gilbert

Hamas Turns Hostage Releases Into a Humiliating Spectacle for Israel

Increasingly theatrical and threatening events have angered Israel and put a cease-fire deal at risk

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-israeli-hostage-release-events-f07ee116?mod=hp_lead_pos8

By Rory Jones

Follow and Summer Said

Updated Jan. 31, 2025 1:03 am ET

A crowd gathered Thursday outside the Gaza home of a slain Hamas leader to watch the release of hostages. Photo: Naaman Omar/Apaimages/Zuma Press

Hamas wants to send the world the message that it is still in charge in the Gaza Strip. Its method: turning the release of hostages into a spectacle that Israel is powerless to stop.

The pattern began about two weeks ago, when the first Israeli hostages were released under a cease-fire agreement that includes the freeing of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Crowds of jeering men crowded around the Hamas trucks carrying the Israeli hostages. When the women got out, they ran to Red Cross officials waiting in nearby vehicles to take them home.

On Thursday, the militants upped the ante. They released two civilian hostages—a 29-year-old woman and an 80-year-old man—in front of the rubble of the home of Yahya Sinwar, the now-dead mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre.

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Hamas released Gadi Moses, Arbel Yehoud, and Agam Berger. Five Thai citizens kidnapped from agricultural communities in southern Israel were also released. Photo: Bashar Taleb/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

This time, the hostages struggled to exit Hamas vehicles as crowds again turned out to greet them, cellphones out aiming for shots of the captives. The Red Cross vehicles weren’t nearby this time, forcing the hostages to wade through throngs of people seemingly on the cusp of attacking them. The hostages’ only protection was their armed captors, members of a U.S.-designated terrorist group.

Hamas is making each round of hostage releases in Gaza an increasingly elaborate event, showcasing its strength and humiliating its enemy—but also threatening to derail the fragile cease-fire in the strip, regional analysts said.

“Hamas is trying to make the release of the hostages look like a show,” said Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of research for Israel’s military intelligence, adding that the move would backfire on Hamas. “Everyone is looking at the disrespectful way they treat the hostages.”

Israel reacted furiously to the display. It said it wouldn’t release the 110 Palestinian prisoners who were supposed to be set free as part of the deal. Mediators, including the U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, scrambled to hold the deal together. Israel eventually released the prisoners.

Hamas members Thursday escorted Arbel Yehoud, an Israeli civilian, through the crowd in Gaza to Red Cross workers. Photo: Naaman Omar/Zuma Press

“I view with utmost severity the shocking scenes during the release of our hostages,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “I demand that the mediators make certain that such terrible scenes do not recur, and guarantee the safety of our hostages.”

Israelis at a makeshift plaza known as Hostage Square in Tel Aviv reacted with shock as they watched on a big screen as the Palestinian crowd yelled at the hostages. By contrast, shouts of joy rang from the square at the images of captives on their way to freedom. “Our hearts were gripped with fear,” said a statement by the Hostage Family Forum, a group of family members with hostages in Gaza.

Hamas gamed the protocol on hostage releases from the very beginning. The parties were supposed to exchange, 24 hours in advance, lists of hostages and prisoners to be released, giving both sides time to prepare the families.

On the morning of the first release, Hamas still hadn’t turned over the list, delaying the deal. When it did release the list, it did so publicly, on social media, infuriating Israel’s negotiators, according to Arab mediators in the talks.

Protocol became a bigger issue as Hamas’s theatrics grew more elaborate and were a significant point of contention even before Thursday’s showdown, mediators said.

When Hamas released four female soldiers this past Saturday, it held a less violent but similarly staged event. Hamas forced the women to wear green attire meant to look like military uniforms and had them waving and smiling to cameras from a stage. Representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross, as the humanitarian organization is officially known, sat on chairs before a desk on the stage, as in a formal state ceremony.

Hamas released four female Israeli soldiers in Gaza on Saturday after walking them across a stage. Photo: Moamen Qreiqea/Zuma Press

On Thursday, hours before the release of the Israeli hostages Arbel Yehoud and Gadi Moses, Hamas held a similarly theatrical release of a fifth female Israeli soldier. Agam Berger, 20, was let go in the midst of the ruins of Jabalia, a city in northern Gaza that saw fierce fighting in the war.

A huge Palestinian flag was draped from a hollowed-out building, and one of the posters at the event said, “Jabalia is the grave of Givati,” referring to an Israeli army unit that fought in the area and lost many soldiers. At one point, while being paraded on a stage, a masked cameraman can be seen directing Berger to smile and wave. She quickly complied.

With its guns silenced and its soldiers on the periphery of Gaza, there is little Israel can do to stop Hamas from parading the hostages around. Hamas wants to “demonstrate their strength and standing in Gaza,” said Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Hamas, in a statement after the hostage releases, said the decision to run two public handovers in different locations across Gaza on the same day was designed to show “the world that our people remain on their land.”

“The massive turnout of our Palestinian people,” Hamas said, “is a message of determination, strength, and defiance.”

The comments came after President Trump in recent days proposed relocating Palestinians for a time from war-ravaged Gaza to neighboring countries, Egypt and Jordan, an idea that was widely dismissed by Arab states.

Looming over the hostage releases is the question of whether Israel and Hamas can negotiate toward a permanent end to the fighting in Gaza. The two sides are expected on Monday to begin negotiating on a permanent deal that would end the war for good and see the rest of the Israeli hostages freed.

“It’s a very fragile situation,” Kuperwasser said.

Red Cross personnel spoke with Hamas members in Gaza City this month during the first release of hostages under the cease-fire deal. Photo: Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP/Getty Images

Write to Rory Jones at Rory.Jones@wsj.com and Summer Said at Summer.Said@wsj.com.

4. ‘My hopes were 50-50’: Families await return of 5 Thai hostages released from Hamas captivity

The inhumanity and brutality of Hamas. There was no need to keep Thai hostages for 15 months.

‘My hopes were 50-50’: Families await return of 5 Thai hostages released from Hamas captivity

Five Thai hostages were released as part of a phased agreement between Israel and Hamas that halted a 15-month conflict in Gaza.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/thai-hostages-gaza-israel-hamas-release-ceasefire-families-4907941

Two Thai captives, who have been held hostage by Hamas in Gaza since October 7, 2023, are escorted by Hamas fighters as they are handed over to the Red Cross in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Jan 30, 2025. (Photo: AP/Jehad Alshrafi)…see more

BURIRAM, Thailand: Wilas Thaenna's eyes darted frantically across the screen of his tablet computer.

The video shows dozens of masked and armed men hurrying three Asians through a crowded street towards an International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) vehicle.

When the short-shaven head of his son Pongsak popped into frame, Wilas shouted in joy and tears poured down his cheeks.

The rest of the family scrambled to gather around the small screen.

That was the first sign of life for Pongsak, released after 15 months in captivity in Gaza, held there since Hamas' attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023 and the subsequent retaliatory war on Gaza by Israel.

Wilas Thenna watches the release of Thai hostages by Hamas on his tablet computer in his home in Buriram, Thailand. He has not heard from his son Pongsak, a farmhand working in Israel, since he was abducted during the Oct 7, 2023 attack.…see more

It was a moment the 64-year-old father and widower from the northeastern Thai province of Buriram had been hoping and praying for.

“When I got the call on (Wednesday, Jan 29) evening from the Thai Embassy (in Tel Aviv) that five Thai hostages will be released, I was really happy. I couldn’t sleep all night,” he told CNA, his voice shaking with emotion.

“It’s been over a year … there was complete silence. My hopes were 50-50 (that Pongsak would return home).”

The five Thai hostages reached Israel on Thursday via military helicopter, where they will spend a few days undergoing medical tests and recuperating in a hospital.

They were released as part of a phased agreement earlier this month that halted a 15-month conflict between Israel and Hamas in war that devastated Gaza.

Wilas watches on a tablet computer as his son Pongsak (in white) is released together with four Thai nationals by Hamas in Gaza,

Aside from Pongsak, the freed Thai nationals are Surasak Rumnao, Watchara Sriaoun, Sathian Suwannakham and Bannawat Saethao.

Authorities said they will return home as soon as they are medically cleared to travel.

THAI WORKERS IN ISRAEL

Pongsak’s fate throws a spotlight on Thai migrant workers making up the bulk of the agriculture labour force in Israel, a role they have held for over 30 years since replacing Palestinian workers.

Before 2023, an estimated 30,000 Thais were working in Israel, mostly as farmhands and gardeners.

They can earn up to US$1,800 a month – a salary unattainable in rural Thailand's agricultural sector.

That was the case with Pongsak, who left his native Buriram province five years ago in search of better opportunities.

His pursuit brought him to Israel, where he often livestreamed on Facebook his job picking vegetables, with Thai rock music blasting in the background.

But on Oct 7, 2023, instead of posting on social media, he called his father.

“My son video called me to show me that there was a war going on, and there were firing and bombings,” Wilas told CNA when we first visited him last October during the first anniversary of the attack.

“He was shouting, 'Hide, hide, hide from the bomb first. There are more coming. We must hide first.' He was saying something like that for about 10 minutes during the video call on Oct 7.

"After that, the signal was cut.”

THAI VICTIMS OF OCT 7 ATTACK

The cross-border incursion killed 41 Thais, in one of the deadliest days for Thais abroad in recent history.

Pongsak was one of 32 Thais abducted by militants and taken to Gaza. While most of the Thai hostages have been released, he was among six Thais who remained in captivity for 15 months.

One senior diplomat said the Thai casualties and hostages are “forgotten victims” of the Hamas attack.

Behind the scenes, efforts to secure their release continued quietly.

Thai hostages freed by Hamas: Watchara Sriaoun, Sathian Suwannakham, Surasak Rumnao, Bannawat Saethao, Pongsak Thaenna, as they hold Thailand's flag in Israel, Jan 30, 2025. (Photo: AP/Royal Thai Embassy in Tel Aviv)

Diplomatic sources told CNA that Thailand was the only country to directly engage with Hamas representatives in Iran via a delegation of Thailand’s House Speaker that resulted in the release of 17 Thai hostages in late November 2023.

In the following months, intermediary countries including Qatar, Egypt and Turkiye led the talks on behalf of the Thais.

A Thai foreign ministry spokesperson on Thursday thanked the various countries for their efforts.

He also renewed calls for the release of the last remaining Thai hostage Nattapong Pingsa, whose well-being and whereabouts have been unknown for months.

THAI WORKERS STILL FLOCKING TO ISRAEL

In the immediate aftermath of the attack, the Thai government moved swiftly to evacuate approximately 9,000 of its citizens from Israel.

Yet, dangers persist. In a stark reminder of the ongoing risks, five Thai farmhands were killed in mortar strikes near the Israel-Lebanon border in November and October last year.

The incidents prompted Thai officials to issue an unexpectedly stern warning to Israeli employers about placing workers in danger zones.

Thai Ambassador to Israel Pannabha Chandraramya (left) welcomes Watchara Sriaoun (centre), one of five Thai hostages who were freed from Hamas, as he arrives in Israel, Jan 30, 2025. (Photo: AP/Royal Thai Embassy in Tel Aviv)

Despite the ongoing conflict and a fragile ceasefire, the number of Thai workers in Israel has increased from an estimated 30,000 before the war to more than 35,000 today.

In fact, earlier this month, Thai Labor Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn met with Israeli Minister of Agriculture and Food Security Avi Dichter and they announced Israel would accept 13,000 more Thais to work in the agriculture sector.

But for many of the former Thai hostages, their future remains uncertain. Most are thinking twice about going abroad again.

They and their families are being compensated by both governments of Thailand and Israel.

Manee Jirachat, one of the Thai hostages released in November 2023, was offered by his ex-employer to complete his five-year work contract with an option to extend.

But he told CNA at that time: “I don’t think I can.”

As for Wilas, he is counting down the days until Pongsak returns home.

He wants his son to ordain as a Buddhist monk to pay tribute to his late mother. It is also a religious rite that Thais believe will cleanse the soul after a horrific ordeal.

Tearful reunions as Hamas, Israel complete second swap under Gaza truce

Gaza residents return home after hostage deal with Israel | Video

Source: CNA/dn

5. Trump Blames DEI, Democrats for Deadly Plane Crash

Trump Blames DEI, Democrats for Deadly Plane Crash

President offers no evidence for his accusations; some GOP lawmakers urge caution before reaching conclusions

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-dc-plane-crash-dei-democrats-83d71aae

By Tarini Parti

Follow and Alex Leary

Updated Jan. 30, 2025 3:52 pm ET

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Photo: Will Oliver/Shutterstock

WASHINGTON—President Trump blamed diversity, equity and inclusion programs and Democrats for a deadly midair collision outside the nation’s capital—without citing evidence to support his assertions—as authorities continue to investigate the cause of the incident and recover bodies.

Trump asserted that the Federal Aviation Administration changed its standards under former President Joe Biden and was “actively recruiting workers who suffer severe intellectual disabilities and psychiatric problems and other mental and physical conditions under diversity and inclusion hiring initiatives.”

It wasn’t immediately clear whether the Biden administration had changed hiring standards at the FAA. During Trump’s first term, the FAA’s website included information about a program aimed at hiring people with disabilities, according to archived versions of the agency’s website.

The crash on Wednesday is the deadliest on U.S. soil in more than two decades.

Speaking during a briefing at the White House on Thursday, Trump declined to point to any evidence to connect the crash to DEI policies.

He added later that he wasn’t sure whether air-traffic controllers were the cause of the crash. The president also said the Army Black Hawk helicopter should have been flying at a different elevation: “The people in the helicopter should have seen where they were going.”

Asked how he can draw the conclusion that the incident was related to DEI initiatives, Trump said, “Because I have common sense.”

“This is a tragedy that should not have happened,” the president added.

Some Republican lawmakers were hesitant to make judgments about the cause of the incident. “I don’t think it makes sense to jump to conclusions,” Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, chair of the Commerce Committee with FAA oversight, told reporters. “We should determine the actual evidence and determine what went wrong.”

Added Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.): “Let’s have a little bit of reverence today. They’re still recovering bodies, and then we can go with the political ramifications of that question, if we choose to.”

Later Thursday, Trump again raised the possibility that DEI initiatives could have contributed to the crash. “It may have. I don’t know. Incompetence might have played a role,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.

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Asked if he had plans to visit the crash site, Trump responded: “What’s the site? The water? You want me to go swimming?” He said he would meet with the families of those killed in the collision.

The president also directed the Transportation Secretary and FAA Administrator to review all hiring decisions and changes to safety protocols made during the previous administration.

Trump’s partisan attack earlier Thursday came shortly after the president, 10 days into his second term, called for a national moment of silence for the victims of the crash over the Potomac River. No survivors are expected, officials said earlier Thursday. “This was a dark and excruciating night in our nation’s capital and in our nation’s history,” the president said.

Trump signed an executive order in his first week in office that ended what he characterized as DEI programs in the FAA. He said the administration was still in the process of implementing the directives in his order.

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A passenger jet carrying 64 people collided with a U.S. Army helicopter while on approach to Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. Both aircraft crashed into the Potomac River. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP; EarthCam

Newly confirmed cabinet secretaries echoed Trump’s comments, which reflected widespread GOP criticism of diversity programs, which were an animating force in the November elections.

“When we deal with safety, we can only accept the best and the brightest in positions of safety that impact the lives of our loved ones, our family members,” said Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.

“The era of DEI is gone at the Defense Department, and we need the best and brightest, whether it’s in our air-traffic control, or whether it’s in our generals, or whether it’s throughout government,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said.

Trump said he was appointing Chris Rocheleau as acting administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration. Rocheleau, a longtime senior FAA official, recently returned from a stint in the private sector as interim chief of the agency.

President Trump said the midair crash ‘should not have happened’ during a Thursday news conference. Photo: will oliver/Shutterstock

“We have to have our smartest people,” Trump said. “We will restore faith in American air travel.”

The president also criticized former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. “He’s just got a good line of bulls—,” he said. The Democrat responded on X, calling Trump’s comments “despicable.”

“We put safety first, drove down close calls, grew Air Traffic Control, and had zero commercial airline crash fatalities out of millions of flights on our watch,” Buttigieg said.

Billionaire Elon Musk, who is serving as a key adviser to Trump, previously pointed to DEI programs in the aftermath of another recent aviation incident. “Do you want to fly in an airplane where they prioritized DEI hiring over your safety? That is actually happening,” Musk posted on X, his social-media platform, when a panel blew off an Alaska Airlines plane last year.

Musk also shared stories from conservative news outlets that pointed to language on the FAA’s website listing a hiring initiative to recruit people with disabilities. But internet archives show that the website listed the same language for years—as early as 2013—and continued during Trump’s first term.

From left, Vice President JD Vance, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and National Transportation Safety Board Chair Jennifer Homendy observe a moment of silence before President Trump’s news conference. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Catherine Lucey contributed to this article.

Write to Tarini Parti at tarini.parti@wsj.com and Alex Leary at alex.leary@wsj.com

6. Trump blames DEI, Army pilot error for deadly Black Hawk collision

Trump blames DEI, Army pilot error for deadly Black Hawk collision

militarytimes.com · by The Associated Press · January 30, 2025

President Donald Trump blamed diversity, equity and inclusion efforts at the Federal Aviation Administration for a deadly midair collision between an Army helicopter and a passenger jet outside Washington, as authorities continue to investigate the worst U.S. aviation disaster in almost a quarter century.

Speaking in the White House press briefing room Thursday, the president, without evidence, blamed air traffic controllers, as well as the helicopter pilot and Democratic policies at federal agencies for Wednesday night’s collision, which occurred between an American Airlines jet and a Blackhawk helicopter at Ronald Reagan National Airport.

Trump stated the helicopter pilot made an incorrect turn prior to the collision, though he did not provide evidence to support his claim.

“I have helicopters. You can stop a helicopter very quickly,” Trump said. “It had the ability to go up or down. It had the ability to turn, and the turn it made was not the correct turn, obviously.”

Trump asserted this opinion even though the crash has yet to be fully investigated and there has been no determination as to whether the FAA or the helicopter pilots did anything wrong.

Passenger jet collides with Army helicopter at Reagan Airport

A regional jet that had departed from Wichita, Kansas, crashed into a Black Hawk while on approach to Ronald Reagan National Airport.

Dozens of people — including more than a dozen figure skaters — were killed in the collision after the helicopter apparently flew into the path of the jet as it was landing at the airport, officials said.

There are reportedly no survivors.

The plane was carrying 60 passengers and four crew members at the time.

Three soldiers, whose identities have not yet been released, were aboard the helicopter during a training flight, an Army official previously said.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth identified the three soldiers as a captain, staff sergeant and chief warrant officer 2 at Thursday’s briefing.

“While performing a training mission, a United States Army UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter from Bravo Company, 12th Aviation Battalion, Davison Army Airfield, Fort Belvoir, Virginia, collided in midair with an American Airlines Bombardier CRJ700 regional jet Flight 5342 last night at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport,” said Ron McLendon II, public affairs deputy director of the Joint Task Force-National Capital Region and the U.S. Army Military District of Washington.

“The FAA, NTSB and the United States Army will investigate,” he added. “The NTSB will lead the investigation. We are working with local officials and will provide any additional information once it becomes available.”

Hegseth released a statement on social media Thursday morning, noting that the helicopter crew members were conducting an annual proficiency night training flight at the time of the collision and were using night-vision goggles.

The 12th Aviation Battalion announced a 48-hour operational pause in the wake of the crash, Hegseth added.

The body of the plane was found upside down in three sections in waist-deep water. The wreckage of the helicopter was also found. At least 28 bodies were pulled from the icy waters of the Potomac River. There was no immediate word on the cause of the collision, but officials said flight conditions were clear as the jet arrived from Wichita, Kansas.

Trump suggested Thursday he might make sweeping changes at federal aviation agencies. There could be firings “if we find that people aren’t mentally competent,” he said.

“For some jobs,” Trump said, singling out air traffic controllers, “they have to be at the highest level of genius.”

Trump blamed previous administrations’ efforts to promote diversity at federal agencies for contributing to the crash. Asked why he thought that was an issue with Wednesday’s collision, he responded, “Because I have common sense.”

During Thursday’s briefing, Hegseth echoed Trump’s remarks on DEI policies, stating, “The era of DEI is gone at the Defense Department.”

“As you said in your inaugural, it is colorblind and merit-based. The best leaders possible, whether it’s flying Black Hawks and flying airplanes, leading platoons or in government,” Hegseth told reporters. “We need the best and brightest, whether it’s in our air traffic control, whether it’s in our generals, or whether it’s throughout government.”

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Trump spewing conspiracy theories about the crash “turns your stomach.”

“It’s one thing for internet pundits to spew off conspiracy theories, it’s another for the president of the United States,” Schumer said at the Capitol.

Meanwhile, Coast Guard boats were helping to scour the chilly waters of the Potomac River.

Every “available U.S. Coast Guard resource for search and rescue” has been deployed to join other agencies, said Secretary Kristi Noem of the Department of Homeland Security.

“We are actively monitoring the situation & stand ready to support local responders,” Noem said on the social media platform X.

In a statement, the Coast Guard says its pollution crews have been mobilized and are ready to respond if necessary.

The Coast Guard is working with the Army Corps of Engineers and Navy’s Supervisor of Salvage and Diving to coordinate removing the wreckage and keeping river traffic out of the area until it becomes safe.

Wednesday’s crash was the deadliest in the U.S. since Nov. 12, 2001, when an American Airlines flight crashed into a residential area of Belle Harbor, New York, just after takeoff from Kennedy Airport, killing all 260 people aboard.

The last major fatal crash involving a U.S. commercial airline occurred in 2009 near Buffalo, New York. Everyone aboard the Bombardier DHC-8 propeller plane was killed, along with one person on the ground, bringing the total death toll to 50.

Military Times editor Beth Sullivan contributed to this report.

7. Shocking near miss day before American Airlines plane crash in DC as jet dodges helicopter in midair

There was one online headline on the Washington Post website reporting this but no further details. All I could find was this report and one from Tehran in the Mehr News Agency in Iran: https://en.mehrnews.com/news/227670/Another-jet-had-to-abort-1st-landing-at-Reagan-Natl-Airport

If this is true then perhaps we are seeing problems with overcrowded DC airspace and air traffic control staffing problems.

Shocking near miss day before American Airlines plane crash in DC as jet dodges helicopter in midair

A second plane had a near miss with a helicopter near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on Tuesday night, just 24 hours before the fatal crash between an American Airlines jet and U.S. military helicopter

ByJeremiah HasselUS News Reporter

19:07 ET, JAN 30 2025Updated19:28 ET, JAN 30 2025https://www.themirror.com/news/us-news/breaking-shocking-near-miss-day-943965
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Just 24 hours before the fatal crash between a commercial American Airlines jet and a U.S. military Black Hawk helicopter near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on Wednesday night, another plane had a near miss with a helicopter and was forced to reroute.

The other plane, which was also a regional flight attempting to land at the busy Washington, D.C., airport, reportedly alerted the air traffic control tower that it needed to make a second approach, stating that the reason was that a helicopter had suddenly appeared near the flight path.

Recorded audio from the cockpit of that flight, Republic Airways Flight 4514, features a female voice stating at approximately 8:05 p.m. EST on Tuesday, "We had an RA with a helicopter traffic below us." RA is the code for an automated emergency alert, called a resolution advisory, received by pilots when their aircraft is at risk of collision with a nearby aircraft.

There have been 28 bodies pulled from the Potomac River so far — 27 from the plane and one from the helicopter ( Image: Getty Images)

The Washington Post reported that Flight 4514, which was a twin-engine Embraer ERJ 175, departed Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks, Connecticut, at 6:50 p.m. on Tuesday before heading south along the Potomac River corridor toward its planned destination, Reagan National Airport.

Just before it neared Memorial Bridge, however, a male voice from the cockpit alerted the tower that they had to "go around." The aircraft then made a sharp turn to the west, a flight tracker map shows.

The map also shows an unidentified aircraft directly under Flight 4514 near the Potomac River that was directly in the path of the latter as it attempted to make its descent into Reagan National. The plane ultimately made a loop before making a second approach and landing safely at 8:16 p.m., flight records indicate.

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Just over 24 hours later, American Airlines Flight AA5342 collided with a U.S. military Black Hawk Sikorsky chopper as it made its descent into Reagan National after traveling from Wichita, Kansas, at 8:48 p.m. on Wednesday.

Both aircraft erupted into a fireball before plummeting into the freezing Potomac River below, presumably killing the 67 individuals aboard the aircraft. As of Thursday afternoon, 28 bodies had been pulled from the icy waters — 27 from the plane and one from the helicopter.

The American Airlines flight had been carrying 60 passengers and four crew members, and the helicopter was carrying three soldiers. A senior official told CNN that there were no "VIPs" aboard the helicopter, meaning high-ranking military officials. Details about the plane's passengers remain scarce.

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The helicopter had reportedly been on a training mission at the time and had been based out of Fort Belvoir, Virginia. Its radio transmitter had been silent at the time, and multiple attempts by the air traffic control tower to reach the helicopter were unsuccessful.

President Donald Trump was quick to lob conspiracy theories at the American public regarding the crash as he sought to place the blame on a number of people and even some concepts. He blamed the pilots of each aircraft, the air traffic control tower personnel, the Biden administration (which had no role whatsoever in the Wednesday night incident, as the Trump administration took power on Jan. 20), and the entire concept of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI), stating that he doesn't believe the crash would have happened if DEI hadn't been a factor. (There is no evidence that it was, nor could it logically become a factor.)

8. Control tower at National Airport understaffed before deadly collision

Control tower at National Airport understaffed before deadly collision

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/01/30/dc-plane-crash-helicopter-recovery-no-survivors-potomac-river/

Two of Reagan National Airport’s air traffic controllers were doing double duty Wednesday night.

January 30, 2025 at 7:46 p.m. ESTYesterday at 7:46 p.m. EST

11 min

The Reagan National Airport control tower Thursday following a crash involving a plane inbound from Wichita and a helicopter over the Potomac River. (Allison Robbert for The Washington Post)

By Katie Shepherd, Aaron C. Davis, Victoria Craw, Olivia George and Ian Duncan

The air traffic control tower at Reagan National Airport was understaffed on Wednesday evening when a passenger plane and a military helicopter collided in midair, according to a government report about the circumstances surrounding the disaster that killed 67 people and sparked renewed debate around the airport’s crowded airspace.

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According to the report, described to The Washington Post, two people were handling the jobs of four among other colleagues inside National’s control tower at the time of the collision. The control tower staffing levels, the report concludes, were “not normal” for the time of day or the amount of air traffic over D.C., where an average of more than 100 helicopters a day zip around and underneath arriving and departing airline flights.

The crash occurred around 8:50 p.m., and its cause remained unclear Thursday evening.

Skip to end of carouselWhat to know about the D.C. plane crash

Follow our live updates on the D.C. plane and military helicopter crash on the Potomac River. Here’s how the deadly D.C. plane crash happened and what we know about the victims.

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While federal investigators hunt for answers — chiefly how this could happen when airplanes and helicopters are often equipped with software to detect nearby aircraft — a portrait emerged of a cramped and swarming airspace, the subject of safety warnings by federal officials and lawmakers and the site of a number of close calls in recent years, including about 24 hours before Wednesday’s collision. The day before, another plane had to abort a landing at National to avoid a crash with a helicopter.

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On Wednesday evening, the position of helicopter controller — a role typically staffed until 9:30 p.m. — had been combined ahead of the crash with that of local controller, according to the report. Doubling up those roles can create challenges for an air traffic controller, especially if the airspace is busy. The roles use different radio frequencies, and airplane pilots and helicopter pilots cannot necessarily hear each other even if they’re both in touch with the tower.

Neither the Federal Aviation Administration nor the National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) immediately responded to questions about staffing.

National Transportation Safety Board officials said they would leave no stone unturned in an investigation that may not definitively answer the critical question — how did this happen? — for months. The board will examine the role played by air traffic controllers in the crash, officials said in a briefing Thursday.

The scene after a passenger plane and a helicopter collided near Reagan National Airport

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Within hours the crash had also spurred a political fight, with President Donald Trump heaping blame at the feet of his Democratic predecessors on Thursday morning. Trump appeared to point the finger at air traffic controllers and the helicopter’s pilot.

More than 300 first responders from the region, coming from as far away as Baltimore, mounted a difficult overnight rescue mission in frigid winds on the icy Potomac River. Divers, nauseated by the smell of jet fuel, pulled victims out of the water. The bodies were mangled. Blood pooled on board a fireboat. By morning, the hope for survivors had faded, and the mission turned to recovery.

Recovery efforts continue after D.C. plane crash

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Officials continued recovery efforts in the Potomac River the morning of Jan. 30, after a passenger aircraft collided with an Army helicopter the night before. (Video: Joe Snell, HyoJung Kim, Joshua Carroll/The Washington Post)

The plane that departed from Wichita on Wednesday evening carried 60 passengers and four crew members, according to a statement by American Airlines. The U.S. Army helicopter had a crew of three soldiers. Bodies were taken to National and near the Frederick Douglass Memorial Bridge, where authorities had pitched red morgue tents on the banks of the Anacostia River. By Thursday morning, officials recovered the bodies of 27 plane passengers and one helicopter crew member. An emergency responder said more remains were being retrieved throughout the day.

On Wednesday night, according to the air traffic safety report that is distributed daily to air traffic managers and federal transportation officials, there were five controllers and one trainee controller on duty. In addition, there was one supervisor, and one supervisor in training.

The report said the helicopter control position, or HC, was combined with the local controller or LC position. It did not say what time that change occurred but said the “HC position is normally staffed” from 10 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. but “can be consolidated at the discretion” of the supervisor on duty.

Additionally, the roles of flight data controller and clearance delivery controller had also been combined that evening, according to the report.

NATCA, the controllers’ labor union, has warned in recent years that a thinly stretched workforce poses a risk to safety.

“Chronically understaffed facilities also introduce unnecessary safety risks into the system,” Rich Santa, then the union’s president, testified before a House subcommittee in November 2023.

The NTSB will seek to determine who was filling which posts in the tower and whether any of the controllers on duty were fatigued.

More on the D.C. plane and helicopter crash

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The lives lost in the D.C. plane-helicopter crash

What we know about the plane and military helicopter crash in D.C.

Trump baselessly blames diversity program for fatal air collision

What we know about the people presumed dead in the D.C. plane crash

New dash-cam video captures D.C. plane crash over Potomac River

Helicopters flying along Potomac frequently pose dangers to passenger jets

Why an anti-collision system might not have prevented DCA plane crash

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Day before D.C. plane crash, another jet had to abort first landing at Reag...

D.C. airport disaster jars choreography of military, civilian aircraft

Reports of problems at National began to emerge late Thursday, including an incident one day before the fatal crash in which a different jet coming in for a landing alerted the tower that it had to abort a landing attempt because of a helicopter that appeared in its flight path.

A female voice in the cockpit of Republic Airways Flight 4514 informed the tower of the problem at roughly 8:05 p.m. Tuesday, according to the audio recording of air traffic control traffic. The plane took a sharp turn to the west, made a loop to try to make a second approach, and safely landed at 8:16 p.m., flight tracking records indicate. A spokesperson for Republic Airways said the company was reviewing The Post’s questions and the details of the incident and could not immediately comment.

The crowded airspace around National has long been a topic of heated debate among policymakers and members of Congress. Wednesday’s crash occurred in one of the most complex air traffic corridors in the United States, where military helicopters fly near passenger jets and key sites such as the White House, Capitol and Pentagon. The airport is operating well above its capacity: It was designed to handle 15 million passengers annually, but numbers have soared to 25 million.

Three close calls investigated by the FAA in recent years had led some to oppose adding new flights, like the nonstop journey between Wichita and D.C., that were added last year.

The morning after the crash, Trump opened a public address with a moment of silence for the victims. Minutes later, he launched into political speech baselessly casting blame for the collision on his Democratic predecessors and diversity, equity and inclusion programs despite acknowledging the cause of the crash was still unknown.

Trump spread blame for the crash without providing any evidence or information about what caused the collision. He said air traffic control warnings came “very very late.” He then suggested that the helicopter pilots should have “seen where they were going” and acted to avoid the accident. The president also harshly criticized former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg for implementing DEI policies in the department and characterized the Democrat’s time over the agency as a “disaster.”

Buttigieg swiftly responded with an equally sharp retort, calling the president “despicable.”

Trump says U.S. in contact with Russia on remains transfer

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President Donald Trump on Jan. 30 said that the U.S. would facilitate the transfer of remains of Russians aboard the flight that crashed near Reagan National. (Video: The Washington Post)

The president did not mention his own administrations’ role in overseeing the FAA or the Transportation Department at the time of the crash. Trump also appointed a new acting FAA administrator, Chris Rocheleau, on Thursday morning. Rocheleau, chief operating officer of the National Business Aviation Association, fills the seat vacated by Michael Whitaker, who stepped down on the day of Trump’s inauguration.

Congress controls how National operates because the airport is owned by the federal government, and in May five round-trip flights were added when President Joe Biden signed the FAA Reauthorization bill into law. Lawmakers from both parties supported the move, especially those eager for a direct flight from their district to the airport closest to D.C.

But a group of Democratic senators from the region argued that additional flights would lead to congestion, delays and safety problems.

In March 2023, Democratic senators representing Virginia and Maryland — Mark R. Warner, Tim Kaine, Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen — wrote to the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee outlining “strong opposition” to adding more flights. After the bill passed anyway, Kaine and Warner said the Senate had “abdicated its responsibility to protect the safety of the 25 million people who fly through DCA every year.”

The chaos and tragic toll of Wednesday’s crash swiftly reopened that debate. Kaine said on Thursday that it wasn’t clear whether the complicated and crowded airspace contributed to the crash, but the issue has been a major concern for some lawmakers.

In a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Daniel Driscoll, Trump’s nominee to serve as Army secretary, said that the accident seemed to be preventable and that he would consider reevaluating when and where Army helicopters fly training missions to avoid future tragedies.

“I think we might need to look at where is an appropriate time to take training risk, and it may not be near an airport like Reagan,” Driscoll said.

Not long before 9 p.m. Wednesday, the small passenger plane and helicopter collided, bursting into a fireball that was visible for miles. A brief shower of sparks lit the night sky, and the two devastatingly damaged aircraft dropped into the icy, black water below.

The alarm from the airport’s control tower sounded at 8:48 p.m. “Crash crash crash. This an alert 3. Crash crash crash.”

That alert — the highest and most urgent priority signaling a confirmed aircraft crash — broadcast directly to the radios of D.C. firefighters and police officers assigned to the marine unit. Those rescue workers launched immediately, even as dispatchers called for help as the true scope of the crash its deadly consequences became more clear.

Officials have not yet released the identity of all who died in the crash, but some communities are already mourning losses.

Hear air traffic controllers react to D.C. plane crash

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Recordings from the National Airport air traffic control tower captured the moments after a commercial plane and a military helicopter collided on Jan. 29. (Video: Reuters / LIVEATC)

Christine Conrad Lane, 49, and her adopted son Spencer, 16, were on the American Eagle flight returning to their home in Rhode Island from the U.S. Figure Skating Championships hosted in Wichita last week. Spencer had been training at the most prestigious annual event on the American figure skating calendar, a big step in the sport that the teenager hoped would be his future.

Spencer fell in love with figure skating watching YouTube, his grandparents said in a phone interview Thursday with The Post. Athletes twirling, leaping and gliding across smooth ice. He was hooked. He practiced four days a week, his grandparents said. He was working hard to pull off a triple axel. His eyes were set on the Olympics.

Then came the call from Christine’s husband late Wednesday.

“I don’t want you to panic like I’m panicking,” Wayne Conrad, Spencer’s grandfather and Christine’s father, recalled him saying. “But I heard a plane from Wichita went down.”

Christine and Spencer were due to fly into National and catch a connecting flight home to Rhode Island. Their flight to D.C. never landed.

“With every passing moment, we realized hope was gone,” Wayne Conrad said.

Other members of the ice skating community were also on the flight, including two former champion figure skaters from Russia, Evgenia Shishkova and Vadim Naumov.

At the Ashburn Ice House in Loudoun County, Virginia, a steady trickle of visitors stopped in with flowers, teddy bears and a balloon that they arranged on a shelf in the main lobby.

Four D.C.-area steamfitters were also on the plane, according to a statement by their union. They were members of Steamfitters Local 602 — a Prince George’s County, Maryland-based union that represents steamfitters and pipe fitters in the D.C. area.

“Our focus now is on providing support and care to the families of our Brothers as we continue to gather more information in the coming days,” the statement said.

Jenny Gathright, Teo Armus, Emma Uber, Gregory Schneider, Mariana Alfaro, Hannah Knowles, Peter Hermann, Nicole Asbury, Carol Leonnig and Andrew Ba Tran contributed to this report.

D.C. plane crash

An American Airlines plane from Wichita and a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter collided mid-air near Reagan National Airport on Wednesday night at 8:47 p.m. Here’s what we know about the victims and key details about the plane crash.

What we know: Recovery efforts are ongoing, officials said they believe there are no survivors. A group of competitive figure skaters, including renowned Russian former champions Evgenia Shishkova and Vadim Naumov, were among the passengers on the plane after attending the 2025 U.S. Figure Skating Championships in Wichita just days prior.

The investigation: The crash site is in a complex airspace, with multiple airports, heliports and military facilities in the area, raising concerns about safety and air traffic control. The incident is under investigation. Experts point to potential factors such as complacency and lower nighttime staffing levels for air traffic controllers.

By Katie Shepherd, Aaron C. Davis, Victoria Craw, Olivia George and Ian Duncan

9. Washington Crash Renews Concerns About Air Safety Lapses

Excerpts:

The helicopter was supposed to be flying closer to the bank of the Potomac River and lower to the ground as it traversed the busy Reagan National airspace, four people briefed on the incident said.

Before a helicopter can enter any busy commercial airspace, it must get the approval of an air traffic controller. In this case, the pilot asked for permission to use a specific, predetermined route that lets helicopters fly at a low altitude along the bank on the east side of the Potomac, a location that would have let it avoid the American Airlines plane.

The requested route — referred to as Route 4 at Reagan National — followed a specific path known to the air traffic controller and helicopter pilots. The helicopter confirmed visual sight of a regional jet and the air traffic controller instructed the helicopter to follow the route and fly behind the plane.

But the helicopter did not follow the intended route, the people briefed on the matter said.

Rather, it was above 300 feet, when it was supposed to be flying below 200 feet, and it was at least a half-mile off the approved route when it collided with the commercial jet.

A senior Army official urged caution in making any assessments until the helicopter’s black box could be recovered and analyzed, along with other forensic data.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the ongoing inquiry, said the Black Hawk’s pilots had flown this route before, and were well aware of the altitude restrictions and tight air corridor they were permitted to fly in near the airport.

Safety lapses in aviation have been increasing for years, leading to an alarming pattern of close calls in the skies and at airports involving commercial airlines. They have occurred amid rising congestion at the country’s busiest airports, including Reagan National, where the frequent presence of military flights makes controlling traffic even more complicated.

At the same time, a chronic shortage of air traffic controllers has forced many to work six-day weeks and 10-hour days — a schedule so fatiguing that multiple federal agencies have warned that it could impede controllers’ abilities to do their jobs properly. Few facilities have enough fully certified air traffic controllers, according to a Times investigation in 2023. Some controllers say little has improved since then.

Washington Crash Renews Concerns About Air Safety Lapses

Clues emerging from the moments before an Army helicopter collided with a passenger jet suggest breakdowns in the system meant to help aircraft land safely at the busy Reagan National Airport.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/31/business/dc-plane-helicopter-crash-cause.html

Crews assessed wreckage on Thursday after a collision between a passenger plane and an Army helicopter late Wednesday.Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times

By Sydney Ember Emily Steel Mark Walker Kate Kelly and Niraj Chokshi

Jan. 31, 2025, 12:00 a.m. ET

Clues emerging from the moments before the deadly collision Wednesday night between an Army helicopter and an American Airlines passenger jet suggest that multiple layers of the country’s aviation safety apparatus failed, according to flight recordings, a preliminary internal report from the Federal Aviation Administration, interviews with current and former air traffic controllers and others briefed on the matter.

The helicopter flew outside its approved flight path. The American Airlines pilots most likely did not see the helicopter close by as they made a turn toward the runway. And the air traffic controller, who was juggling two jobs at the same time, was unable to keep the helicopter and the plane separated.

An F.A.A. spokesman said the agency could not comment on the ongoing investigation, which is being led by the National Transportation Safety Board. Crash investigators will spend the next several months reviewing flight data, recordings from inside the cockpits, weather patterns, as well as interviewing controllers and others involved to try to figure out what went wrong.

But the catastrophe already appeared to confirm what pilots, air traffic controllers and safety experts had been warning for years: Growing holes in the aviation system could lead to the kind of crash that left 67 people dead in the Potomac River in Washington.

Even before an official cause is determined, there were signs Wednesday that pilots and air traffic controllers at Reagan National were not operating under optimal conditions.

The duties of handling air traffic control for helicopters and for planes at Reagan National on Wednesday night were combined before the deadly crash. That left only one person to handle both roles, according to a person briefed on the staffing and the report.

Typically one person handles both helicopter and plane duties after 9:30 p.m., when traffic at Reagan begins to lessen. But the supervisor combined those duties sometime before 9:30, and allowed one air traffic controller to leave, according to the person, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the investigation into the crash. The crash occurred just before 9 p.m.

While there were no unusual factors causing a distraction for controllers that night, staffing was “not normal for the time of day and volume of traffic,” the preliminary F.A.A. report said.

On Thursday, five current and former controllers said that the controller in the tower should have more proactively directed the helicopter and the plane to fly away from each other. Instead, the controller asked the helicopter to steer clear of the plane.

Some of the current and former controllers said the darkness could have made it more difficult for pilots to accurately gauge the distance between themselves and other aircraft. Some wondered whether the helicopter pilots mistook a different plane for the American jet.

The helicopter was supposed to be flying closer to the bank of the Potomac River and lower to the ground as it traversed the busy Reagan National airspace, four people briefed on the incident said.

But the helicopter did not follow the intended route, the people briefed on the matter said.

Rather, it was above 300 feet, when it was supposed to be flying below 200 feet, and it was at least a half-mile off the approved route when it collided with the commercial jet.

A senior Army official urged caution in making any assessments until the helicopter’s black box could be recovered and analyzed, along with other forensic data.

Image

Staffing at the air traffic control tower at Reagan National Airport on Wednesday night was “not normal for the time of day and volume of traffic,” according to a preliminary report.Credit...Maansi Srivastava for The New York Times

The air traffic control tower at Reagan National has been understaffed for years. The tower there was nearly a third below targeted staff levels, with 19 fully certified controllers as of September 2023, according to the most recent Air Traffic Controller Workforce Plan, an annual report to Congress that contains target and actual staffing levels. The targets set by the F.A.A. and the controllers’ union call for 30.

An F.A.A. spokesman said on Thursday that Reagan National currently employs 25 certified controllers out of their goal of 28.

The controller who was handling helicopters in the airport’s vicinity Wednesday night was also instructing planes that were landing and departing from its runways. Those jobs are typically assigned to two controllers, rather than one, the internal F.A.A. report said. This increases the workload for the air traffic controller and complicates the job.

Controllers can also use different radio frequencies to communicate with pilots flying planes and pilots flying helicopters. While the controller is communicating with pilots of the helicopter and the jet, the two sets of pilots may not be able to hear each other.

As the passenger jet’s pilots were approaching the airport, they were asked by air traffic control to pivot the landing from one runway to another, according to the F.A.A. report, a person briefed on the incident and audio recordings of conversations between an air traffic controller and the pilots. That request may have introduced another complication shortly before the collision.

The American Airlines flight had originally been cleared by the traffic control tower to land on the airport’s main runway, called Runway 1. The controller then asked the pilot to land on a different, intersecting runway instead — Runway 33 — which the pilot agreed to do.

That decision, according to the person who was briefed on the incident and four other people who are familiar with the airport’s air traffic, happens routinely when regional jets like the American Airlines aircraft are involved. The decision may also have been made to help keep air traffic moving efficiently by not clogging the main runway, the people said.

Runway 33 is shorter, requiring intense focus from pilots landing their planes. The last-minute change raised questions within the F.A.A. on Thursday morning about congestion at Reagan National, the person briefed on the event added.

Robert Isom, American’s chief executive, said at a news conference on Thursday that the pilots of the passenger plane involved in the crash had worked for PSA Airlines, an American subsidiary, for several years, The captain had been employed by the airline for almost six years, while the first officer had worked there for almost two years.

“These were experienced pilots,” he said.

Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs contributed reporting.

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10. Top Army aviators were on routine flight when helo collided with jet

Excerpts:

Koziol described the crew members, whose identities have yet to be released, as “very experienced.”

“The instructor pilot was flying the aircraft with a fellow pilot in command, so both of those crew members can manage that aircraft by themselves. It was an annual evaluation that is conducted by every Army aviator that they fly day and night,” he said, “Even the crew chief in the back has been in the unit for a very long time, very familiar with the area, very familiar with the routing structure. So we don’t see that at all as being any impact on what happened.”

Koziol confirmed that the instructor pilot in command of the aircraft had logged 1,000 flight hours and the other pilot had 500 hours under his belt.

Top Army aviators were on routine flight when helo collided with jet

https://www.militarytimes.com/land/2025/01/30/top-army-aviators-were-on-routine-flight-when-helo-collided-with-jet/?utm

By Jen Judson

Jan 30, 2025, 05:15 PM

Search-and-rescue efforts are seen around a wreckage site in the Potomac River from Ronald Reagan National Airport early Thursday morning. (Mark Schiefelbein/AP)

The U.S. Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter that collided midair with an American Airlines passenger jet above Reagan National Airport in Washington on Wednesday night was piloted by experienced aviators that typically fly VIP missions in busy air space, according to a retired Army chief warrant officer with over 30 years of flying experience, who serves in the Headquarters Department of the Army Aviation Directorate at the Pentagon.

The two aircraft crashed in a clear night sky right as the American Airlines flight from Wichita, Kansas, with 64 people aboard, was approaching the runway flying over the Potomac River. The Black Hawk was on a training flight from Davison Army Airfield at Fort Belvoir, Virginia, carrying three service members.

The fuselage of the aircraft broke apart in three places and was discovered inverted in waist-deep water. The helicopter wreckage was found nearby. There were no survivors found. The recovery effort is ongoing.

Until the “black box” aboard both aircraft are recovered from the icy waters of the Potomac, the biggest questions about what happened remain unanswered.

“We really need to wait and allow the accident investigation to complete,” Jonathan Koziol told reporters Thursday over the phone from a hangar at Reagan Airport where he was helping to provide expertise as investigators begin their work. “Both aircraft will have recorders on board that will give us all of that information once we recover it, to give us the real truth on what those aircraft were doing. Up until now would just be speculation adding to the confusion.”

Koziol described the crew members, whose identities have yet to be released, as “very experienced.”

“The instructor pilot was flying the aircraft with a fellow pilot in command, so both of those crew members can manage that aircraft by themselves. It was an annual evaluation that is conducted by every Army aviator that they fly day and night,” he said, “Even the crew chief in the back has been in the unit for a very long time, very familiar with the area, very familiar with the routing structure. So we don’t see that at all as being any impact on what happened.”

Koziol confirmed that the instructor pilot in command of the aircraft had logged 1,000 flight hours and the other pilot had 500 hours under his belt.

“That’s normal,” he said.

During a press briefing Thursday, President Donald Trump, without evidence, blamed air traffic controllers, as well as the helicopter pilot and Democratic policies at federal agencies for Wednesday night’s collision.

The investigation into the crash is ongoing, and the cause of the collision is unknown.

The UH-60 flight from Belvoir appeared uneventful until what seemed like the last moment.

While Koziol had not seen the Army’s standard mission risk assessment for the specific flight, he said all factors would point to a low-risk classification for the trip.

The Black Hawk’s crew from the 12th Aviation Battalion stationed at Belvoir was conducting a routine aviator evaluation to ensure a pilot’s ability to maneuver throughout the airspace around the National Capital Region, or NCR, is sufficient to command the aircraft without an instructor for any other mission sets, Koziol explained.

With such a catastrophic event, conversations in the aftermath have led to questions about why the Army needs to conduct training events in congested airspace like the one around Reagan.

The battalion has a special mission in the NCR. One part of that is its VIP flight operations for senior U.S. leaders. Another is to support the Defense Department “if something really bad happens in this area,” Koziol said.

“We need to move our senior leaders so they need to be able to understand the environment, the air traffic, the route, to ensure the safe travel of our senior leaders throughout our government. That’s part of their training here and they’re really good at it.”

Additionally, the flight along the Potomac is “a relatively easy corridor to fly because you’re flying downcenter of the river and it’s very easily identifiable, especially at night,” Koziol said. Pilots fly the specific route on which the Black Hawk was flying on an almost daily basis.

The aircraft was also equipped with moving maps “so they would know exactly on the map and visually understand where they are with relation to the route,” he added.

There are also strict parameters on altitude the pilots would have been very familiar with and accustomed to adhering, Koziol shared. Aviators know not to climb higher than 200 feet above the ground on that route.

Koziol said it was not clear at what elevation the aircraft was flying; that’s something the black box will confirm.

While it has been reported the pilots had night vision goggles, it has not been determined if the pilot or crew were using them. According to Koziol, on a night flight down the Potomac, a pilot could comfortably fly unaided by goggles.

The Black Hawk also could not have operated in the NCR without a flight plan and contact with Air Traffic Control. ATC provides each aircraft with a specific, four-digit “squawk code” assigned to it, so ATC can control individual positions in and around the airspace and ensure aircraft also don’t fly in sensitive areas where they are not allowed, Koziol explained.

The collision — the worst U.S. aviation disaster since 2001 — follows a spate of Army aviation mishaps over the last several years that have resulted in Army leadership’s stand-down effort in 2023 to address the problem and a standup effort in 2024 to put a renewed emphasis on the culture of rigorous training and safety.

Last year was the most mishap-heavy year in Army aviation history since 2007, and 2023 was one the deadliest years for Army aviators since the Army withdrew from Iraq in 2011. For instance, in 2023, two Black Hawks collided midair in Kentucky, killing nine crew on board.

The Army, following its stand-down and review, determined its pilots and aviation warrant officers are significantly less experienced than they were during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

As a result, inexperienced crews were “out-driving their headlights, out-training the experience that was in their force at whatever level,” then-commander of the Army Aviation Center of Excellence, Maj. Gen. Mac McCurry, told Defense News on a 2024 trip to Fort Novosel, Alabama, home of Army aviation training.

How last night’s collision might fit into the greater mishap trends of Army aviation remains to be determined.

About Jen Judson

Jen Judson is an award-winning journalist covering land warfare for Defense News. She has also worked for Politico and Inside Defense. She holds a Master of Science degree in journalism from Boston University and a Bachelor of Arts degree from Kenyon College.

11. The West must study the success of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces

A good rundown on the lessons we need to be considering.

Excerpts:

Ukraine’s SOF operations provide several critical lessons for the country’s Western partners. In terms of doctrine development, it is clear that military organizations must emphasize flexibility and adaptability in force structure and training, while integrating SOF capabilities more deeply in support of conventional forces.

The importance of technological integration and adaptation cannot be overstated. Future military forces must be prepared to operate in environments where commercial technology plays an increasingly important role, and where the ability to utilize these technologies can provide crucial advantages. In terms of equipment, Western planners should focus on communications jamming and interception, improved surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, and integrating AI tools to aid in intelligence collection and analysis.

The role of Ukrainian SOF operations in the current war provides valuable insights for military forces worldwide. Their impact demonstrates the critical importance of adaptability and the effective use of technology in modern warfare. These lessons are particularly relevant as military organizations prepare for future high-intensity conflicts in increasingly complex operational environments.

The West must study the success of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces

atlanticcouncil.org · by Peter Dickinson · January 30, 2025

Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, much has been written about the extensive training provided to the Ukrainian military by the country’s Western partners. However, the West also has much to learn from Ukraine’s unique military experience. In particular, the successes of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces provide a range of valuable lessons for their Western counterparts that will shape military doctrines for years to come.

The effectiveness of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces can be largely attributed to their exceptional adaptability in rapidly changing battlefield conditions. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukrainian SOF units quickly adjusted to meet the immediate challenges of high-intensity conflict against a far larger and better armed enemy.

This adaptability has manifested in several crucial ways. The rapid reconfiguration of small unit tactics to counter Russian mechanized forces has been particularly noteworthy, as has the development of innovative solutions to overcome numerical disadvantages. Ukrainian SOF units have consistently shown their ability to adopt new technologies and tactics based on battlefield feedback. Perhaps most importantly, they have implemented flexible command structures that enable decentralized decision-making, allowing for rapid responses to emerging threats and opportunities.

Ukraine’s ability to adapt has been further demonstrated through the innovative use of civilian infrastructure and technologies. Ukrainian SOF units have effectively incorporated commercial drones, civilian communications networks, and other non-military technologies, showing remarkable creativity in overcoming resource constraints.

One of the most significant lessons from the conflict has been the effective integration of SOF units with conventional military forces engaged in large-scale combat operations. Ukrainian SOF units also played a vital role in preparing the battlefield before and during the initial phases of the invasion. They established networks of resistance, gathered intelligence, and identified key targets that would later prove crucial for conventional forces.

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Ukraine’s achievements since 2022 have owed much to years of solid preparations. Following Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces underwent significant transformation with assistance from NATO countries, particularly the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada. Between 2015 and 2021, Ukraine also implemented major structural reforms to align with NATO standards, including the establishment of dedicated SOF training centers.

These steps helped lay the foundations for a sophisticated network of resistance capabilities across potential invasion routes by early 2022. Ukrainian SOF units mapped key infrastructure, identified potential targets, and established relationships with local civilian networks, while developing protocols for rapid information sharing between SOF units, conventional forces, and civilian resistance elements. These preparations proved vital, enabling Ukrainian forces to target Russian supply lines, command nodes, and communications systems using real-time intelligence.

Throughout the invasion, coordination between Ukrainian SOF units and conventional forces has enabled effective combined arms operations. SOF units frequently act as forward observers, providing targeting data to artillery units and conducting battle damage assessments. The ability to rapidly share intelligence has been particularly important in urban environments, where the complexity of the battlefield requires close cooperation between different military elements.

Russia’s invasion has reinforced the importance of unconventional warfare in modern conflicts. Ukrainian SOF units have successfully employed various unconventional warfare techniques that have had strategic impacts far beyond their tactical execution.

Ukraine’s implementation of guerrilla tactics and sabotage alongside partisans has been highly effective, with numerous successful operations conducted behind enemy lines. This has included the disruption of Russian supply lines, targeting of key military infrastructure and command centers, and the execution of precision strikes on high-value targets.

The psychological aspect of warfare has proven equally important, with Ukrainian SOF units making significant contributions to information warfare campaigns that have influenced both domestic and international audiences. They have conducted deception operations that have complicated Russian planning and operations, while also executing morale operations targeting both enemy forces and occupied populations.

The successful integration of modern technology has been a key characteristic of Ukrainian SOF operations. Despite facing a far wealthier and numerically superior adversary, Ukrainian SOF units have leveraged various technological capabilities to maintain operational effectiveness. They have utilized commercial technologies for reconnaissance and surveillance, integrated drone operations into tactical planning and execution, and leveraged artificial intelligence and big data analytics for targeting and planning.

Ukraine’s SOF operations provide several critical lessons for the country’s Western partners. In terms of doctrine development, it is clear that military organizations must emphasize flexibility and adaptability in force structure and training, while integrating SOF capabilities more deeply in support of conventional forces.

The importance of technological integration and adaptation cannot be overstated. Future military forces must be prepared to operate in environments where commercial technology plays an increasingly important role, and where the ability to utilize these technologies can provide crucial advantages. In terms of equipment, Western planners should focus on communications jamming and interception, improved surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, and integrating AI tools to aid in intelligence collection and analysis.

The role of Ukrainian SOF operations in the current war provides valuable insights for military forces worldwide. Their impact demonstrates the critical importance of adaptability and the effective use of technology in modern warfare. These lessons are particularly relevant as military organizations prepare for future high-intensity conflicts in increasingly complex operational environments.

Doug Livermore is national vice president for the Special Operations Association of America and deputy commander for Special Operations Detachment–Joint Special Operations Command in the North Carolina Army National Guard. The views expressed are the author’s and do not represent official US Government, Department of Defense, or Department of the Army positions.

12. Ukraine Special Operations Forces and the Lessons Learned for Large-Scale Combat Operations

Another article from Doug Livermore with important views.

Excerpts:

The experiences of Ukrainian SOF in the current conflict provide valuable insights for military forces worldwide. Their success demonstrates the critical importance of adaptability, integration with conventional forces, and effective use of technology in modern warfare. These lessons are particularly relevant as military organizations prepare for future high-intensity conflicts in increasingly complex operational environments.

The conflict has shown that SOF units remain a vital component of modern military operations, capable of achieving strategic effects through tactical actions. Their ability to operate effectively in both traditional and unconventional roles, while adapting to rapidly changing circumstances, provides a model for future force development and employment. The lessons learned from Ukrainian SOF operations will likely influence military doctrine and force development for years to come, shaping how modern militaries prepare for and conduct operations in future conflicts.

Ukraine Special Operations Forces and the Lessons Learned for Large-Scale Combat Operations

https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/01/31/ukraine-special-operations-forces/

by Doug Livermore

01.31.2025 at 06:00am

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has provided invaluable insights into the evolving nature of modern warfare, particularly regarding the role of Special Operations Forces (SOF) in Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO). Ukrainian SOF units have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in countering Russian military operations through a combination of adaptability, technological integration, and unconventional warfare tactics. Examining the key lessons learned from their operations and their implications for future military doctrine provides critical insights for military planners and strategists worldwide.

Adaptability in Dynamic Battlefield Conditions

The success of Ukrainian SOF can be largely attributed to their exceptional adaptability in rapidly changing battlefield conditions. When Russia launched its invasion in February 2022, Ukrainian SOF quickly adjusted their traditional roles to meet the immediate challenges of high-intensity conflict. These units demonstrated remarkable flexibility in transitioning from their peacetime training and stability missions to supporting LSCO. This transition was particularly challenging given the scale and intensity of Russian operations, yet Ukrainian SOF managed to maintain operational effectiveness while adapting their tactics and procedures.

This adaptability has manifested in several crucial ways. The rapid reconfiguration of small unit tactics to counter Russian mechanized forces has been particularly noteworthy, as has been their development of innovative solutions to overcome numerical disadvantages. Ukrainian SOF have consistently shown their ability to quickly adopt new technologies and tactics based on battlefield feedback. Perhaps most importantly, they have implemented flexible command structures that enable decentralized decision-making at tactical levels, allowing for rapid response to emerging threats and opportunities.

The ability to adapt has been further demonstrated through their innovative use of civilian infrastructure and technology. Ukrainian SOF have effectively incorporated commercial drones, civilian communications networks, and other non-military technologies into their operations, showing remarkable creativity in overcoming resource constraints. This adaptability extends to their organizational structure, with units frequently restructuring to meet specific mission requirements or respond to changing battlefield conditions, allowing them to both support LSCO and conduct independent special operations.

One of the most significant lessons from the conflict has been the effective integration of SOF with conventional military units engaged in LSCO. This coordination has proven crucial in maximizing the impact of limited resources and achieving operational objectives. The success of this integration can be examined through several key aspects of military operations, providing valuable insights into future force development and employment.

Pre-conflict Preparation

Ukrainian SOF played a vital role in preparing the battlefield before and during the initial phases of the conflict. They established networks of resistance, gathered intelligence, and identified key targets that would later prove crucial for conventional forces. This preparatory work laid the foundation for subsequent military successes and demonstrated the importance of SOF in shaping the battlefield to achieve success in LSCO. The effectiveness of these preparations became evident in the early days of the conflict, as pre-positioned networks and intelligence sources provided critical information and support to conventional defending forces.

The conflict has shown that SOF units remain a vital component of modern military operations, capable of achieving strategic effects through tactical actions.

Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces underwent significant transformation with substantial Western assistance. NATO countries, particularly the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada, provided extensive training through programs like the U.S. Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine (JMTG-U). Ukrainian SOF personnel received specialized training in establishing and managing clandestine networks, conducting sabotage operations, and coordinating with civilian resistance elements. Between 2015 and 2021, they also implemented major structural reforms to align with NATO standards, including the creation of dedicated SOF training centers and specialized units.

These preparations created a sophisticated network of resistance capabilities across potential invasion routes by early 2022. Ukrainian SOF had mapped key infrastructure, identified potential targets, and established relationships with local civilian networks, while developing protocols for rapid information sharing between SOF units, conventional forces, and civilian resistance elements. When the invasion began, these preparations proved crucial, enabling Ukrainian forces to effectively target Russian supply lines, command nodes, and communication systems, while pre-established networks provided real-time intelligence on Russian movements and capabilities.

Operational Coordination

The seamless coordination between SOF and conventional units has enabled more effective combined arms operations during LSCO. SOF units frequently act as forward observers, providing real-time intelligence and targeting data to artillery units and conducting battle damage assessments. This integration has enhanced the effectiveness of both SOF and conventional forces, creating synergies that have proven crucial in combat operations. The ability to rapidly share intelligence and coordinate operations has been particularly important in urban environments, where the complexity of the battlefield requires close cooperation between different military elements.

The success of this coordination can be attributed to several factors, including improved communications systems, shared training experiences, and the development of common operational procedures. Ukrainian forces have also benefited from Western training and advice in developing these coordination mechanisms as well as a far more capable noncommissioned officer corps, expanding the use of decentralized decision making while demonstrating the value of international military cooperation and knowledge sharing.

The Enduring Relevance of Unconventional Warfare

The conflict has reinforced the continued importance of unconventional warfare in modern conflicts. Ukrainian SOF have successfully employed various unconventional warfare techniques that have had strategic impacts far beyond their tactical execution. Their implementation of guerrilla tactics and sabotage alongside partisans has been particularly effective, with numerous successful operations conducted behind enemy lines. These operations have included the disruption of Russian supply lines and logistics networks, targeting of key military infrastructure and command centers, coordination with local resistance movements, and execution of precision strikes on high-value targets supporting conventional forces engaged in LSCO.

New approaches to unconventional warfare in high-intensity conflicts must be developed, along with incorporating lessons learned from urban and hybrid warfare scenarios.

The psychological aspect of warfare has proven equally important, with Ukrainian SOF making significant contributions to information warfare campaigns that have influenced both domestic and international audiences. They have conducted effective deception operations that have complicated Russian planning and operations, while also executing morale operations targeting both enemy forces and occupied populations. These psychological operations have been particularly effective in maintaining civilian support and undermining enemy morale, demonstrating the crucial role of information operations in modern warfare.

Technology Integration and Intelligence Operations

The successful integration of modern technology has been a defining characteristic of Ukrainian SOF operations. Despite facing a numerical superior adversary, Ukrainian SOF have effectively leveraged various technological capabilities to maintain operational effectiveness. Their proficiency in real-time intelligence integration has been particularly noteworthy, as they have successfully utilized commercial off-the-shelf technology for reconnaissance and surveillance, integrated drone operations into tactical planning and execution, employed advanced communications systems for coordinated operations, and leveraged artificial intelligence and big data analytics for targeting and planning.

The integration of cyber capabilities with traditional SOF operations has created new opportunities for disrupting enemy command and control systems, gathering intelligence through electronic means, protecting critical infrastructure from cyber-attacks, and supporting information operations and strategic messaging. This technological integration has been particularly impressive given the resource constraints faced by Ukrainian forces, demonstrating the importance of innovation and adaptability in modern warfare.

The effective use of commercial technologies alongside military systems has been a notable aspect of Ukrainian SOF operations. Commercial drones, satellite imagery, and communication systems have been successfully integrated into military operations, often providing capabilities that complement or enhance traditional military systems. This hybrid approach to technology has proven highly effective and offers important lessons for future force development, especially as Western SOF embrace variations of the “SOF-Space-Cyber Triad”.

Implications for Future Military Operations

The experiences of Ukrainian SOF provide several critical lessons for future military operations and force development. In terms of doctrine development, military organizations must adapt to emphasize flexibility and adaptability in force structure and training, while integrating SOF capabilities more deeply in support of conventional force LSCO. New approaches to unconventional warfare in high-intensity conflicts must be developed, along with incorporating lessons learned from urban and hybrid warfare scenarios.

The importance of technological integration and adaptation cannot be overstated. Future military forces must be prepared to operate in environments where commercial technology plays an increasingly important role, and where the ability to rapidly adopt and adapt new technologies can provide crucial advantages. This requires not only investment in technology but also in training and organizational structures that support rapid innovation and adaptation.

Future SOF training programs should prioritize the enhanced integration of technology in all aspects of operations, improved coordination with conventional forces, development of skills for operating in degraded environments, and emphasis on decision-making at lower levels. Regarding technology and equipment, investment priorities should focus on advanced communications systems resistant to jamming and interception, improved surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, enhanced cyber and electronic warfare capabilities, and integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning tools to aid in intelligence collection and analysis.

The Ukrainian experience also highlights the importance of international cooperation and knowledge sharing in developing effective SOF capabilities. The success of Ukrainian SOF and their contributions to LSCO has been significantly enhanced by training and support from Western partners, demonstrating the value of international military cooperation in developing and maintaining effective special operations capabilities. In return, the lessons learned from Ukraine’s SOF are already proving invaluable in shaping future capabilities and deterring other would-be aggressors.

Conclusion

The experiences of Ukrainian SOF in the current conflict provide valuable insights for military forces worldwide. Their success demonstrates the critical importance of adaptability, integration with conventional forces, and effective use of technology in modern warfare. These lessons are particularly relevant as military organizations prepare for future high-intensity conflicts in increasingly complex operational environments.

The conflict has shown that SOF units remain a vital component of modern military operations, capable of achieving strategic effects through tactical actions. Their ability to operate effectively in both traditional and unconventional roles, while adapting to rapidly changing circumstances, provides a model for future force development and employment. The lessons learned from Ukrainian SOF operations will likely influence military doctrine and force development for years to come, shaping how modern militaries prepare for and conduct operations in future conflicts.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author’s and do not represent official US government, Department of Defense, or Department of the Army positions.)

Tags: large-scale combat operations, LSCO, Russia, Russia-Ukraine War, SOF, SOF-Space-Cyber Triad, Special Operations Forces, Ukraine, Ukraine war

About The Author

Doug Livermore
Doug Livermore is the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative, a member of the Atlantic Council’s Counterterrorism Group, the national vice president for the Special Operations Association of America, national director for external communications at the Special Forces Association, senior vice president for solution engineering at the CenCore Group, and the deputy commander for Special Operations Detachment–Joint Special Operations Command in the North Carolina Army National Guard. A former senior government civilian, intelligence officer, and contractor in various roles at the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Department of the Navy, and Department of the Army.

13. The Tech Revolution and Irregular Warfare: Leveraging Commercial Innovation for Great Power Competition

Download the 20 page reports here: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2025-01/250130_Jones_Irregular_Warfare.pdf?VersionId=pf3AQZdT2C2zEovp.Y28T1Xgtyt3ukgG

Conclusion

China, Russia, Iran, and other U.S. adversaries are developing capabilities that pose a growing threat to U.S. military forces and intelligence units below the threshold of conventional war. Indeed, irregular warfare will likely become an increasingly significant aspect of great power competition. Eric Schmidt, chair of the Special Competitive Studies Project and former CEO and chair of Google, warned that the United States is not adequately prepared for this future environment:

“[T]he U.S. government will have to overcome its stultified bureaucratic impulses, create favorable conditions for innovation, and invest in the tools and talent needed to kick-start the virtuous cycle of technological advancement. It needs to commit itself to promoting innovation in the service of the country and in the service of democracy. At stake is nothing less than the future of free societies, open markets, democratic government, and the broader world order.”75

Despite these challenges, there are opportunities. The commercial sector has substantial capabilities that can help the U.S. military and intelligence community more effectively conduct irregular warfare. Innovative companies give the United States and its partners a significant advantage over China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other countries in such areas as battlefield awareness, unmanned systems, influence operations, placement and access, precision effects, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

As President Franklin D. Roosevelt explained in his fireside chat to the United States on December 29, 1940, a year before Pearl Harbor, the “American industrial genius, unmatched throughout all the world in the solution of production problems, has been called upon to bring its resources and its talents into action.”76 It is much the same today. The commercial sector is an important part of America’s “arsenal of democracy.” It needs to play that role again.

The Tech Revolution and Irregular Warfare: Leveraging Commercial Innovation for Great Power Competition

Brief by Seth G. Jones

Published January 30, 2025

https://www.csis.org/analysis/tech-revolution-and-irregular-warfare-leveraging-commercial-innovation-great-power?utm

Seth G. Jones

President, Defense and Security Department; Harold Brown Chair

Programs & Projects

The Issue

The U.S. government has not adequately leveraged the commercial sector to conduct irregular warfare against China, Russia, Iran, and other competitors because of significant risk aversion, slow and burdensome contracting and acquisitions processes, and a failure to adequately understand technological advances. There is an urgent need to rethink how the United States works with the commercial sector in such areas as battlefield awareness, placement and access, next-generation intelligence, unmanned and autonomous systems, influence operations, and precision effects.

U.S. adversaries are developing capabilities and taking actions that pose a growing threat to the U.S. military and intelligence community across the globe. China, for example, is investing significantly in artificial intelligence (AI) such as DeepSeek, quantum computing, and other emerging technologies, as well as improving capabilities in areas such as information and influence operations, long-range strike, autonomous systems, cyber, and space. China can leverage an economy that has greater purchasing power parity ($31.2 trillion) than the United States ($24.7 trillion), a situation that the United States did not face with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.1

China’s military-civil fusion (军民融合) development strategy—also called national strategic integration—has created a way for the government to direct and facilitate cooperation with the commercial sector and fuse China’s defense industrial base with its civilian industrial base.2 China has also cooperated with Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other countries to develop greater military, intelligence, and dual-use capabilities that will complicate U.S. military and intelligence activities overseas.3

This analysis focuses on one specific area of competition: actions and capabilities below the threshold of conventional warfare, or what this analysis refers to as irregular warfare. As used here, irregular warfare refers to activities short of conventional and nuclear warfare that are designed to expand a country’s influence and legitimacy. These activities include information operations, cyber operations, support to state and non-state partners, covert action, and economic coercion.

To better understand the changing dynamics of great power competition and the implications for irregular warfare, this analysis asks several questions: How might U.S. adversaries evolve their capabilities in ways that impact the United States’ ability to conduct irregular warfare? What types of missions might U.S. military and intelligence units be asked to conduct, and what types of commercial capabilities will likely be required to conduct these missions? How can military forces and intelligence better leverage the commercial sector to develop and implement these capabilities?

In answering these questions, this analysis makes two main arguments. First, the United States is not adequately prepared for the evolving nature of irregular warfare. China, Russia, Iran, and other states are developing conventional and irregular capabilities that present serious challenges—and opportunities—for intelligence, special operations, and other military forces across the globe. U.S. military and intelligence units will require disruptive capabilities in multiple areas where the commercial sector has a comparative advantage: battlefield awareness; next-generation intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; unmanned and autonomous systems; influence operations; placement and access; and precision effects.

Second, the U.S. military and intelligence communities need to fundamentally change the way they work with the commercial sector in order to compete more effectively in irregular warfare—both on offense and defense. Commercial innovation and production capacity in the commercial sector provides a major advantage for the United States and its allies and partners in irregular warfare, including for Title 10 and 50 activities. But the United States has not adequately leveraged these innovations because of risk aversion, slow and burdensome contracting and acquisitions regulations, and a failure to adequately understand viable options in the commercial sector. There is a significant need to rethink the framework of government collaboration with this sector and to treat commercial entities as partners serving a common goal.4

The rest of this analysis is divided into four sections. The first examines the growing importance of irregular warfare and some of the associated missions and capabilities. The second section argues that U.S. adversaries, such as China and Russia, possess significant capabilities that will likely pose challenges for U.S. military and intelligence operatives. The third section highlights the growing importance of the commercial sector to the development of innovative capabilities for competition in irregular warfare. And the fourth highlights challenges and opportunities for military and intelligence in irregular warfare.

Irregular Warfare in Great Power Competition

Irregular warfare will likely be a major area of competition between the United States and China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other countries. It is critical for the United States to build conventional and nuclear capabilities to deter adversaries and—if deterrence fails—fight and win wars. But the financial, political, and military costs of conventional and nuclear war among major powers are high. During the Cold War, the most frequent type of competition between the Soviet Union and the United States was irregular warfare, as the two sides fought proxy wars in Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Europe. The same may be true over the next several years.

Irregular warfare involves activities short of conventional and nuclear warfare that are designed to expand a country’s influence and legitimacy, as well as coerce, deter, or weaken adversaries.5 It includes numerous tools of statecraft that governments can use to shift the balance of power in their favor without resorting to conventional conflict:

Information and influence operations, including public diplomacy and psychological warfare
Cyber operations, including offensive cyber operations
Training, advice, and other assistance to state and non-state partners
Covert action
Economic coercion

Government officials and scholars have used different terms—such as political warfare, hybrid warfare, gray zone activity, asymmetric conflict, and the indirect approach—to capture some or all of these actions.6 Some might object to the term “warfare” to describe activities like economic coercion and information operations, but that is not how the United States’ competitors see it. China has used terms like “three warfares” (三战), which involves public opinion, legal, and psychological warfare—none of which include the direct use of violence. Iran has utilized such terms as “soft war” (جنگ نرم) to describe such activities as propaganda and information operations.

Read the remainder of the report at this link: https://www.csis.org/analysis/tech-revolution-and-irregular-warfare-leveraging-commercial-innovation-great-power?utm

14. ‘Evil must not win’ — how Ukraine’s female partisans resist Russian occupation

Russian evil. Ukrainian resilience with a whole of society resistance.

Excerpts:

As it’s capturing more Ukrainian land, Russia is also tightening its grasp on the occupied territories, according to Olesia. The occupation administration has ramped up surveillance, with increasingly common security checks and more cameras in the streets.

Even the initial advantage that Mavka held — that Russian soldiers would not suspect women to be resistance members — has lost its edge as the occupiers grow more careful, Olesia says.

It is hard enough to fight against overwhelming odds in constant fear. It is harder still when hope is in short supply. In spite of this, the Mavkas fight on.

Talking about what keeps her motivated, Olesia says laconically, "Somebody has to do it. It just happens to be us."

Although layered with melancholy, her messages reveal a sense of purpose and perseverance.

"The power is in the people. Each of us has the power to do something to help this world, from a leaflet to big decisions in the world's seats of power," she says in a message from occupied Ukraine to the free world.

"We are here, and despite everything, we continue to resist because evil must not win. Please fight with us and for us."

‘Evil must not win’ — how Ukraine’s female partisans resist Russian occupation

kyivindependent.com · by Martin Fornusek · January 30, 2025

Somewhere in the streets of Russian-occupied Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, a woman puts a sticker on the wall. It’s a short message, but if she is seen doing it, she will face arrest, prosecution, and likely, torture.

The message is: "Soon, we will be home again." On another sticker, the most dangerous three words in the occupied Crimea: "This is Ukraine."

What makes it even more risky for their bearer is the language. The words are in Ukrainian.

The woman putting up the stickers is a member of Zla Mavka, an all-female resistance group. She is on a dangerous mission: to give hope.

In the occupied territories, hope is a prized commodity. As Russia's full-scale war is about to reach its grim third anniversary, its grip over one-fifth of Ukraine's territory has only grown tighter.

The prospects for full military liberation of the occupied regions — including Crimea and parts of the Donbas region occupied since 2014 — seem ever more distant.

After seeing the liberation of the parts of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts in 2022, Ukrainians in other occupied areas have been hoping that their turn will come soon. Now they struggle to find comfort in the latest news.

Nonetheless, Olesia, one of the three women who founded Zla Mavka, an all-women resistance movement that operates across occupied territories, including Crimea and Zaporizhzhia Oblast, says she plans to fight as long as possible. Olesia’s name has been changed and her last name is not being disclosed to protect her identity as she lives under Russian occupation.

Переглянути цей допис в Instagram

Допис, поширений Zla Mavka (@zlamavka)

"As long as there is hope, we will continue to resist," she told the Kyiv Independent.

The name, Zla Mavka, or Evil Mavka, harkens back to old Ukrainian folklore — the mavka is a woodland female spirit who uses its beautiful appearance to lure men to their deaths. An image of a young woman, clad in white garb and wearing a wreath of flowers, became the most iconic attribute of their imagery.

Mavkas are not easy to reach. Their members never know when a Russian soldier will stop them in the street to inspect the contents of their phones.

Olesia sends her answers in writing through an intermediary. Audio or video is deemed too risky. Her responses are somber and free of embellishments.

"If we lose, we won't have a life here," she writes. "We will have to leave our homes because living under Russian occupation is worse than prison."

Opinion: Trading territories means trading people

The following opinion piece accompanies the Kyiv Independent’s War Crimes Investigations Unit’s newly released documentary, “Shadows Across the River.” Watch the documentary by clicking here. “Let Russia retain control over occupied Ukrainian territories to finally freeze this war!” This refrain,…

The Kyiv IndependentDanylo Mokryk

Mavka cocktail

Olesia comes from a city in southeastern Ukraine that was seized by Russia mere days after the outbreak of the full-scale war.

After Moscow illegally declared the annexation of the lands they seized, hers and other cities under Russian control were to be remodeled into Potemkin villages — a veneer of a harmonious cohabitation covering up arrests, torture, and repressions.

On Women's Day on March 8, 2023 — more than a year after the start of the occupation — Russian troops were lined up in the city's streets to dutifully hand out flowers to Ukrainian women. The gesture had a different effect than Russia might have hoped.

It was the "insolence of Russian occupiers and their attitudes toward women" that inspired the founding of Zla Mavka, Olesia explains.

"We wanted to remind them that they are not at home, that this is Ukraine, and they are not welcome," she says.

"We wanted to remind them that they are not at home, that this is Ukraine, and they are not welcome."

The trio of founders, one of whom is an artist, began distributing posters bearing an inscription in Russian reading "I don't want flowers! I want my Ukraine back!" and a drawing of a woman smashing a Russian soldier with a bouquet.

Since these early days, the movement grew to hundreds of activists, forming a decentralized group coordinated through anonymous chatbots on a messenger app. The group spread to different occupied regions and became especially active in Crimea, with a few members hailing even from Donbas.

Zla Mavka may be only one of several resistance groups that sprung up in Russian-held areas, including the Yellow Ribbon and Atesh. But its all-female character and the use of humor and creativity sets it apart from others.

Art created by Zla Mavka, a Ukrainian all-female resistance movement operating across Russian-occupied territories. (Zla Mavka)

Creativity is the group's greatest strength, Olesia says, half-jokingly suggesting that women can be more sophisticated in the ways of resistance than their male counterparts.

Among the many acts of resistance since the foundation of the group, Mavkas say they created fake ruble banknotes reminding the Russians that "Crimea is Ukraine," burned Russian flags, and filled the streets with pro-Ukrainian graffiti, posters, and poetry. At times, they say they mix laxatives into food and alcohol served to Russian soldiers, a treat they mischievously dubbed the "Mavka cocktail."

Their activities also venture into more usual resistance activities, including the distribution of self-published newspapers to counter Russian propaganda or — according to the Ukrainian military-run National Resistance Center — passing information about the Russian military to Ukraine.

But Olesia emphasizes that Zla Mavka is more than just a resistance group. It has become a source of support for Ukrainians amid the hardship of occupation — a community where anonymity is no obstacle to connection.

Inside occupied Ukraine’s most effective resistance movements

Acts of resistance come in many shapes and sizes. From a colored ribbon tied to a tree or a flag raised over a remote mountain face, to a quick tip-off on an encrypted app that sets off a chain of events culminating in the destruction of a warship, everything counts.

The Kyiv IndependentFrancis Farrell

Omnipresent fear

"It's disgusting, nauseating," Olesia says as she describes what she feels seeing Russian soldiers in the streets of her hometown every day.

"It's especially difficult when you have to talk to them. You want to say everything you think about them, scratch out their faces, I don't know what… but you have to be discreet and not reveal anything."

The Mavka diaries, vividly illustrated stories written by individual members and published by the group on social media, present poignant accounts of life under Russian war and occupation.

"We held on to the last moment but had to leave for Zaporizhzhia," reads one of the diaries, published in February 2024. "My husband stayed in Mariupol. Forever. My heart remained there, right in the yard of our house that we had been building with love for so long. We buried him in our yard.”

Omnipresent fear and suppression of Ukrainian identity have become eponymous with the Russian occupation.

Ukrainian citizens are denied medical care unless they accept Russian passports. Men are forcibly drafted to fight against their own country. The Ukrainian identity of children is being erased in schools before they're sent off to "patriotic" military training camps.

(L-R) Photos showcasing Zla Mavka's resistance: posters featuring a Zla Mavka illustration with the text "I don't want flowers – I want my Ukraine," and a Zla Mavka logo drawn on an arm. (Zla Mavka)

"I have never felt so much fear in my life as I do now. Being under occupation, I constantly feel in danger; I fear for my life. I am afraid that they will come for me and imprison me for supporting Ukraine. I am afraid that they will torture me. I am afraid that I will never see my son," reads another passage from a Mavka from Starobilsk, a city in Luhansk Oblast occupied since March 2022.

"I am afraid that they will come for me and imprison me for supporting Ukraine. I am afraid that they will torture me."

Even for those who do not plant bombs under railway tracks or report the movement of Russian troops to Ukrainian authorities, the realities of the occupation are unavoidable and deeply personal. Displaying Ukrainian symbols is punished, and people are afraid to speak the Ukrainian language.

It is in the acts of resistance, great or small, that Ukrainians find strength while living under occupation.

"You feel that you are doing something for which you will not be ashamed to look your children in the eyes, that you are helping, that you did not break," Olesia explains.

But every time, it is as scary as the first time, she admits, using a common Ukrainian saying that translates to: "The eyes are scared, but the hands are doing."

The fate of millions

At the time when Zla Mavka was founded, the hope felt across Ukraine was palpable. Not only were Russian forces humiliated in Kyiv Oblast, but Ukrainian counteroffensives in the fall of 2022 liberated dozens of towns and villages in Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts, including the city of Kherson.

But then a new counteroffensive, the long-awaited one that was meant to cut into Russian lines in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the summer of 2023, didn’t succeed.

Since then, the front line has been moving in Russia’s favor, with Ukraine suffering a series of painful losses in the eastern Donetsk Oblast.

Both Kyiv and its Western partners now acknowledge that a liberation of Ukrainian land by force of arms is unlikely in the near future. As U.S. officials propose ceasefire deals that would leave millions of Ukrainians under Russian occupation, hopelessness is creeping in.

As Russians inch closer to Pokrovsk, civilians in the area are left with a choice — stay under fire or leave life behind

BILOZERSKE, Donetsk Oblast — Less than 30 kilometers north of embattled Pokrovsk, a market was in full swing in the town of Bilozerske. Meters away, however, a crowd has gathered in front of a building, nervously awaiting the doors to open. Tensions were visibly mounting as the doors remained close…

The Kyiv IndependentEmmanuelle Chaze

"It's scary. People are thinking about options of what to do if it happens," Olesia says of a ceasefire that would leave the occupied lands under Russian control.

"Many people despair, many are trying to decide how to live (under the occupation)."

News from the front line brings no comfort as well, as Russia continues to raze and capture new villages, one by one.

"Sometimes it seems that behind all those headlines about territories and kilometers, some forget that these are all people, lives, homes, destinies," Olesia says.

An artwork depicting stories of people in occupied territories, submitted to Zla Mavka. (Zla Mavka)

As it’s capturing more Ukrainian land, Russia is also tightening its grasp on the occupied territories, according to Olesia. The occupation administration has ramped up surveillance, with increasingly common security checks and more cameras in the streets.

Even the initial advantage that Mavka held — that Russian soldiers would not suspect women to be resistance members — has lost its edge as the occupiers grow more careful, Olesia says.

It is hard enough to fight against overwhelming odds in constant fear. It is harder still when hope is in short supply. In spite of this, the Mavkas fight on.

Talking about what keeps her motivated, Olesia says laconically, "Somebody has to do it. It just happens to be us."

Although layered with melancholy, her messages reveal a sense of purpose and perseverance.

"The power is in the people. Each of us has the power to do something to help this world, from a leaflet to big decisions in the world's seats of power," she says in a message from occupied Ukraine to the free world.

"We are here, and despite everything, we continue to resist because evil must not win. Please fight with us and for us."

Note from the author:

Hi, this is Martin Fornusek.

With our team, we strive to bring you true stories of the Ukrainian resistance, of the bravery of Ukrainian men and women like Olesia defying Russian occupation for so many years. We wouldn't be able to do so without the support of readers like you. To help us continue in this work, please consider becoming a member of the Kyiv Independent's community.

Thank you very much.

15. Gaza checkpoint to be staffed by scores of armed American contractors

Gaza checkpoint to be staffed by scores of armed American contractors

https://www.reuters.com/world/inside-us-security-firms-risky-gaza-mission-2025-01-30/?utm

By Jonathan Landay and Aram Roston

January 30, 20251:34 PM ESTUpdated 10 hours ago

Item 1 of 5 A satellite image shows the Netzarim Corridor, an area of central Gaza cleared by the Israeli military after invading the Palestinian enclave August 20, 2024. Troops deployed along the corridor prevent the free movement of Gazans between the north and south of the enclave. 2024 Planet Labs Inc./Handout via REUTERS/File Photo

[1/5]A satellite image shows the Netzarim Corridor, an area of central Gaza cleared by the Israeli military after invading the Palestinian enclave August 20, 2024. Troops deployed along the corridor prevent the free movement of Gazans between the north and south of the enclave. 2024 Planet Labs... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more

Summary

UG Solutions hiring 96 special forces veterans for Gaza checkpoint dutyDeployment raises concerns of Americans in Middle East conflict zoneEgyptians collaborate with US contractors at checkpoint

WASHINGTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - A small U.S. security firm is hiring nearly 100 U.S. special forces veterans to help run a checkpoint in Gaza during the Israel-Hamas truce, according to a company spokesperson and a recruitment email seen by Reuters, introducing armed American contractors into the heart of one of the world's most violent conflict zones.

UG Solutions - a low-profile company founded in 2023 and based in Davidson, North Carolina - is offering a daily rate starting at $1,100 with a $10,000 advance to veterans it hires, the email said.

They will staff the checkpoint at a key intersection in Gaza's interior, said the spokesperson, who confirmed the authenticity of the email.

Some people have been recruited and are already at the checkpoint, said the spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity. He did not say how many contractors were already in Gaza.

UG Solutions' role in the ceasefire deal has been reported, but the email disclosed previously unknown details including the aim of recruiting 96 veterans exclusively with U.S. special operations forces backgrounds, the pay and the types of weapons they will carry.

Reuters reported on Jan. 7 that Emirati officials had suggested the use of private contractors as part of a post-war peacekeeping force in Gaza, and that the idea had caused concern among Western nations.

The deployment of armed U.S. contractors in Gaza, where Hamas remains a potent force after 14 months of war, is unprecedented and poses the risk that Americans could be drawn into fighting as President Donald Trump's administration seeks to keep the Hamas-Israel conflict from reigniting.

Among the risks facing the Americans are gunfights with Islamist militants or Palestinians angry over Washington's support for Israel's Gaza offensive.

"Of course there is a threat they will face," said Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official.

The document said the contractors will be armed with M4 rifles, which are used by the Israeli and U.S. militaries, and Glock pistols.

The rules of engagement governing when UG Solutions personnel can open fire have been finalized, the spokesperson said, but he declined to disclose them.

"We have the right to defend ourselves," he said. He declined to discuss how the company won the contract.

EGYPT'S ROLE

Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel on Tuesday told reporters, without naming UG Solutions or the United States, that Israel had demanded that the deal include the use of a private security firm, working with "an Egyptian security company or forces" to help maintain security and humanitarian aid flows in Gaza.

But, she said, it remained to be seen if the arrangement "actually works."

Earlier rounds of ceasefire negotiations were held up by an Israeli demand to staff the checkpoint with its own troops.

Witnesses in Gaza have in recent days described Egyptian security personnel at the checkpoint using scanners to look for weapons concealed in vehicles.

An Egyptian source said the Egyptians at the checkpoint were special forces trained in recent months including on counter terrorism.

A Palestinian official close to the talks confirmed U.S. contractors would also be at the checkpoint, at the intersection of the Netzarim Corridor dividing northern and southern Gaza and Salah al-Din Street, which separates the east and west of the enclave.

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

However, the official said the U.S. contractors would be deployed away from residents passing through and they must not deal with the local population.

The UG Solutions email said its primary mission was "internal vehicle checkpoint management and vehicle inspection."

"We're only focused on vehicles," said the spokesperson.

The Israeli prime minister's office declined to provide any further comment on the security arrangements. The U.S. State Department, Egypt's foreign office and Hamas did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

U.S. use of private security firms has in the past led to disaster. In 2007, contractors for the now defunct Blackwater firm shot dead 14 civilians in Baghdad's Al Nisour Square, igniting a diplomatic crisis and outraging Iraqis. Four Blackwater personnel were convicted in a U.S. court and pardoned by Trump in his first term.

Insurgents in Fallujah, Iraq, in 2004 killed four Americans working for Blackwater and hung two of their bodies from a bridge, prompting a massive U.S. military response.

The UG Solutions' hires will work with U.S.-based Safe Reach Solutions, which does logistics and planning, according to the spokesperson and another source familiar with the contract.

Each hire will be provided with $500,000 in accidental death and dismemberment insurance, and the daily rate for former U.S. special forces medics rises to $1,250, the email said.

A separate source familiar with the deal said Israel and unnamed "Arab countries" that worked on the agreement are funding the consortium. The U.S. government had no direct involvement in the decision to include a security company in the ceasefire deal or in the awarding of the contract, the source said.

'VICTORY NARRATIVE'

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank who grew up in Gaza, downplayed the danger for the Americans because their role in the return of displaced Palestinian civilians bolsters Hamas' claim of victory over Israel.

"Even Hamas, for all its horrendous rhetoric and actions, understands that it is this very American presence … that feeds its victory narrative," he said.

Gaza has been devastated by Israeli bombardments during 15 months of war that began after the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault into Israel that killed 1,200 people and took another 250 hostage, according to an Israeli toll.

Almost 47,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have died in the fighting.

Jan. 19 marked the start of a 60-day ceasefire: the first phase of the deal mediated by Egypt and Qatar with U.S. support. Since then, hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians have been streaming on foot and in vehicles through the checkpoint north toward Gaza City, much of it churned to rubble by Israeli bombardments.

WHO-G?

Several people in the private security industry told Reuters that they had not heard of UG Solutions.

The only company official listed in Virginia state incorporation records is Jameson Govani, who didn't respond to phone messages. He is described as a U.S. Special Forces veteran.

A U.S. private security business source briefed on the UG Solutions contract, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it seemed hazardous to deploy Americans in Gaza and that he feared combat could break out "really fast".

It was unclear what would happen if the Americans were attacked or captured, or which nation's law would govern the contractor's actions.

The email does not say who would rescue them. The UG spokesperson said the document was outdated and that quick reaction forces would be available. He didn't provide further details.

"We are well equipped to guard our own safety," he said.

(This story has been corrected to change the name from Fuad to Fouad in paragraph 27)

The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here.

Reporting by Jonathan Landay and Aram Roston. Additional reporting by Erin Banco in New York, Nidal al-Mughrabi, Ahmed Mohamed Hassan and Nafisa Eltahir in Cairo, and Alexander Cornwell and Emily Rose in Jerusalem Editing by Don Durfee and Frank Jack Daniel

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

16. NDIA POLICY POINTS: How to Best Support Special Operations Forces

Notice the paradox. While the first SOF truth is humans are more important than hardware, most people's (and contractor's) recommendations for SOF are technological. Yes SOF (and the entire military) need the best technology that the great US industrial base can provide. But what are we doing for the SOF operator in terms of developing human capabilities (SOCOM is doing a lot in this area of health and fitness) and in terms of training, education, doctrine. concepts. authorities, permissions, campaigns and strategy. If you ask most SOF operators they want the right authorities and permissions to execute effective campaigns in support of US strategy.

NDIA POLICY POINTS: How to Best Support Special Operations Forces

https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2025/1/31/ndia-policy-points-how-to-best-support-special-operations-forces?mc_cid=04e2c3da0c

1/31/2025

By Lorenzo Williams

USSOCOM graphic

Special operations forces are built on five recognized and published principles: humans are more important than hardware; quality is better than quantity: special operations forces cannot be mass produced; competent special operations forces cannot be created after emergencies occur; and most special operations require non-SOF support.

Advancing the level of non-SOF support through every means at the Defense Department’s disposal is critical to providing the technologically superior systems commandos require at time of need.

As the conflict in Ukraine has revealed, advances in technology have dramatically changed the way modern warfare is waged. Unmanned aerial technology in particular has evolved as drones that fit in the palm of the hand up to those that weigh up to 1,000 pounds are in use, according to numerous reports.

Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in March 2024 that information technologies are likely to have the most impact on warfare within the coming decades.

These are information technologies that will drive autonomous weapons, cyber operations and electronic warfare. As the deployment of these and other disruptive technologies becomes more prevalent, the U.S. military must adopt technology faster than competitors.

Logistics organizations that support special operations are true force multipliers, and their importance cannot be overstated. Organizations such as the 528th Sustainment Brigade and the training provided at the Navy Service Support Advanced Training Command and the Marine Forces Special Operations Command Multi-Discipline Logistics Operations Course are critical to the sustainment of special operators.

While these organizations are charged with the responsibility of developing and executing lifecycle logistics or training those that do, these organizations are in turn supported by a vast network of first, second and third tier suppliers, some of which have unique, specialized and cutting-edge technologies.

These suppliers are the technology developers, integrators and manufacturers that provide and undergird the emerging technology, and whose course to innovation must be unencumbered.

Not only must these suppliers be unleashed to innovate now, Special Operations Command’s components must also be funded to drive the demand signals that enable its readiness.

As suppliers respond to demand signals, there must be thoughtful approaches to ensure those companies that provide our most technologically advanced systems maintain their capability as well.

The rapid integration and deployment of the latest advancements in technology and capabilities with military applications to deter and, if necessary, prevail in conflict is critical.

To maintain the nation’s technological asymmetric advantages, the Defense Department must exercise all the mechanisms at its disposal, including novel contracting vehicles and flexible pathways, with a balanced approach that spurs additional capability and capacity and promotes innovation across both traditional and nontraditional contractors of all sizes.

Despite the Pentagon’s efforts and reforms in recent years to attract more innovative companies into its ecosystem, it is still challenging for companies outside the traditional defense industrial base to do business with the department.

Attracting and retaining new entrants, academic institutions and small businesses — along with the innovative technologies and capabilities they bring to the department — is a critical element to building a modern, diverse and resilient industrial base. Heading into a new administration and the 119th Congress, policymakers are expected to focus on ways to attract additional nontraditional defense contractors into doing business with the Defense Department.

A nontraditional defense contractor is defined by law as an entity that is not currently performing and has not performed, for at least the one-year period preceding the solicitation of sources by the Defense Department, any contract or subcontract that is subject to full cost accounting standards coverage.

When a company is classified as such, numerous government regulations are not required in comparison to a traditional defense contractor. These differences ultimately affect costs, flexibility, innovation and how quickly acquisition solutions can be fielded.

The defense ecosystem is now at a critical juncture. One area of common agreement between government and private sector companies is that to support the Defense Department to the greatest extent possible, it is time to unleash the defense industrial base and allow it to provide better non-SOF support, which ultimately provides better SOF support.

The current system is slow, burdensome and antithetical to the speed and flexibility of innovation that the speed of current warfare requires. The tools the Pentagon uses to attract new entrants into the defense market work equally well to retain traditional contractors of all sizes and create environments that foster innovation and competition.

Through the prism of the SOF principles, humans are more important than hardware, and quality remains more important than quantity. To elevate the support and the quality of the hardware provided to operators, the Defense Department must clear the path to enable this support now and in the future.

Support through programs such as SOCOM’s Ignite program — envisioned to provide a developmental innovation and talent pipeline opportunity — is a promising support mechanism for future requirements.

For current needs, the Defense Department must cultivate a level playing field for nontraditional and traditional defense contracts to equally infuse cutting-edge technology to the Army, Navy and Air Force to support the SOF mission. ND

Lorenzo Williams is senior director of strategy and policy at NDIA.

17. Pentagon scrambles to block DeepSeek after employees connect to Chinese servers

We have met the enemy and he is us.

Pentagon scrambles to block DeepSeek after employees connect to Chinese servers | TechCrunch

TechCrunch · by Charles Rollet · January 30, 2025

3:49 PM PST · January 30, 2025

Image Credits:MustafaU / Getty Images

Charles Rollet

Pentagon scrambles to block DeepSeek after employees connect to Chinese servers

DeepSeek’s terms of service explicitly states it stores user data on Chinese servers and that it governs that data under Chinese law — which mandates cooperation with the country’s intelligence agencies.

But that didn’t stop U.S. Department of Defense workers from getting caught up in the DeepSeek hype this week and connecting their work computers to Chinese servers, using the service for at least two days, Bloomberg reported.

The Pentagon has since started blocking DeepSeek on some of its network, although some employees could still access the service, according to Bloomberg.

The U.S. government is grappling with the national security implications of soaring interest in the Chinese AI chatbot, which has climbed to the top of both the U.S. Apple and Play stores.

On January 24, the U.S. Navy banned employees from accessing DeepSeek over security and ethical concerns, CNBC reported.

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TechCrunch · by Charles Rollet · January 30, 2025

18. Senators grilled Army secretary nominee for 2 hours. Quality-of-life issues barely came up.

I guess we can say Rich Creed's FM 3-0 has been (or will be) "confirmed." At least we know of one person who has read Army Doctrine.

excerpt:

... the next secretary of the Army said that he spent the night before his Senate confirmation hearing studying up on an Army’s field manual: FM 3-0, Operations. The 350-page manual, which is written by senior Army leaders and updated every few years, is the central planning document that lays out the doctrine and goals that define the jobs of the service’s million-plus soldiers.

Senators grilled Army secretary nominee for 2 hours. Quality-of-life issues barely came up.

The nominee for Army secretary faced questions about the defense industrial base, politicization of the military and new technology but quality-of-life issues among the rank-and-file got little attention.

Patty Nieberg

Posted 15 Hours Ago

taskandpurpose.com · by Patty Nieberg

A former armor officer and Ivy League lawyer in line to be the next secretary of the Army said that he spent the night before his Senate confirmation hearing studying up on an Army’s field manual: FM 3-0, Operations. The 350-page manual, which is written by senior Army leaders and updated every few years, is the central planning document that lays out the doctrine and goals that define the jobs of the service’s million-plus soldiers.

Despite some tense questions from Democrats and a few slip-ups on his relative lack of experience, Daniel Driscoll, a 38-year-old former first lieutenant, appeared headed for confirmation during his Thursday hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

But both Driscoll and the senators questioning him gave little attention to daily issues that soldiers routinely cite as the least appealing part of service. These issues range from enlisted pay, poor barracks conditions, undermanned career fields, spouse employment, childcare, mental health and other quality-of-life issues.

The sharpest questions Driscoll faced came from Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), a former Army helicopter pilot. She dinged Driscoll for not knowing the number of soldiers in a division or where U.S. troops were based in Africa during their one-on-one meeting that took place ahead of his confirmation hearing.

“I did study after you asked me that question,” Driscoll told Duckworth at the hearing. “And to your Africa comment: West Africa and Horn of Africa,” he added.

For most of the two-hour hearing, Driscoll stuck close to his own biography and to high-level strategic issues like revamping the defense industrial base, addressing recruitment issues, and balancing deployments to the Southern border with general readiness.

Senators from both parties spent little time asking about quality-of-life issues facing soldiers and what Driscoll would do to address rank-and-file concerns were he confirmed for the secretary position. The nominee, however, did flag high operational tempo, or optempo, as a hardship facing soldiers. Driscoll noted high rates of National Guard deployments and said that the service has to “make sure we are considering and taking into account the stress on their jobs back home and on their families.”

Driscoll also indicated that he wanted to appoint a high-level position dedicated to ending sexual assault and “setting a culture where that is not tolerated in any way.”

From a rural town to the Ivy League

Nearly two decades younger than the woman he would replace as Army secretary, Driscoll’s resume is thinner than most service chief nominees. He served three years in the Army, leaving as a junior officer for law school, and has spent less than 10 years in finance roles, working for companies unrelated to defense.

But in his hearing, Driscoll pointed to his own biography as a more productive narrative that the service should use to bring in more recruits rather than “throwing more money at the problem” and emphasizing benefits.

Driscoll called himself a “third generation soldier” whose father was an infantryman in the Vietnam War and whose grandfather served in World War II. Driscoll was an armor officer between August 2007 and March 2011 and a cavalry scout platoon leader with the 10th Mountain Division at Fort Drum, New York. He deployed to Iraq for nine months in October 2009, according to his service record provided by the Army. Driscoll earned his Ranger tab and Combat Action Badge.

“The reason we joined is we didn’t want to miss the opportunity to serve our country when it needed us,” Driscoll said about his family’s Army service. “I think we have oftentimes lost focus on that and started to focus on things like the benefits, which are all important, and they’re very valuable reasons to join, but I think for many of America’s youth, it is the purpose of getting to serve.”

Using the GI Bill, Driscoll went to Yale Law School where he met Vice President JD Vance and later served as his senior advisor. After his military service, Driscoll worked in private equity and in 2020 he ran in a Republican primary in his home state of North Carolina.

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Recruiting woes, standards and ‘$400 drone’ threats

If confirmed, Driscoll would be taking the helm of the largest branch of the military — one that has faced recruiting issues over the last few years. The Army hit its 2024 goal of 55,000 new recruits by bringing in those who skewed older and with the help of the Future Soldier Prep Course, which offers additional academic and physical training for recruits before they ship out to basic training. Driscoll said he would look to expand the prep course and look at possible improvements and expansions to the service’s waiver programs.

Driscoll also said that maintaining “standards and excellence,” were important. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Republican lawmakers have claimed that the military has moved towards racial and gender preferences in recruiting and training.

“I think one of the most amazing parts of my time in service, the Army, in my experience, was an incredible meritocracy. I can’t remember a single time being in where anyone thought that the system was against them,” Driscoll said.

He said he hoped both his son and daughter would one day take on “challenging,” gender-neutral requirements for advanced Army training.

“I have told my daughter, it would be the proudest day of my life — and I don’t think she understands the nuance of what I’m saying — to pin a ranger tab on her if she can complete Ranger School with the incredibly difficult standards being the exact same as when I went through. I think that those standards and excellence that the secretary of defense has talked about are important.”

At several points during the hearing, Driscoll referenced his perspective as a junior soldier in the Army’s effort to modernize and bring new technology to soldiers faster.

“There are soft spots all over our tanks which are some of our most dependable fighting machines that very cheap drones rigged with very cheap explosives can exploit,” Driscoll said. “A lot of the way that we have thought about how to fight will have to change because of drones, both large and small, with swarms. We can no longer shoot $4 million missiles to take down a $400 drone — that simple math doesn’t add up.”

When Driscoll did come under tense questioning, Democrats pressed him for his opinions on the politicization of the military, like recalling Trump’s former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley for a review of his grade before his honorable discharge.

“Without knowing the specific details, I do support the president’s right to execute lawful orders,” he said.

Several Democrats also asked Driscoll to comment on whether he would follow unlawful orders from the president. Driscoll said he rejected the premise of their questions and said: “I would only follow lawful orders and constitutional ones.”

The latest on Task & Purpose

Here are the first Army and Marine Corps units heading to the border
Two officers were fired for bucking their chain of command. Now they’re going to work at the Pentagon.
Army and Air Force sweep out DEI-coded programs
Army officers had to write haikus about Pacific theater of World War II during a leadership course
Army recruits hoping for cav scout or armor jobs will have to wait for boot camp

taskandpurpose.com · by Patty Nieberg

19. Gabbard and Patel hearings display diverging views of reality, history along partisan lines

I spent the morning yesterday flipping between the two C-Span channels watching these two hearings.

Gabbard and Patel hearings display diverging views of reality, history along partisan lines

Senators focused mostly on the nominees’ past statements, rather than how they may lead in their prospective positions.

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Senate confirmation hearings Thursday for two top intelligence jobs revealed a growing gap between Trump administration nominees and Democratic lawmakers, not just in terms of policy, but in perceptions of reality. Arguments about facts and history crowded out discussion of how the United States intelligence community should adapt to the threats posed by China, Russia, and other adversaries.

Former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, nominated for director of the Office of National Intelligence, and former Trump official Kash Patel, nominated for FBI director, bristled at hearing their own statements read back to them—statements threatening or insulting the press, lawmakers and other public servants in Patel’s case, or justifying the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Gabbard’s.

One particular moment illustrated how Gabbard’s views of reality on intelligence matters have diverged from the community she would be leading. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., asked her to explain statements expressing doubt about U.S. intelligence assessments on the Syrian government’s chemical weapon attack in April 2017—an attack that killed nearly 90 Syrians, including as many as 30 children. The first Trump administration responded to that attack by targeting Syrian chemical weapons sites with U.S. missiles.

On Thursday, Gabbard defended her 2017 statement, saying, “There was conflicting information that came from the UN's office on the prohibition of chemical weapons inspectors as well as an MIT Professor Ted Postol.”

Kelly pointed out that Postol appeared on various Russian television broadcasts to push his theories—theories the U.S. intelligence community discredited.

“You started from a place of doubting the conclusions of the U.S. intelligence community and then you sought out information that confirmed your viewpoint,” he said, and described as “concerning” the fact that Gabbard would “not apply the same skepticism to information that came from sympathizers of Russia and Assad.”

Senators also pressed Gabbard on policy actions she’s taken, such as her 2020 sponsoring of a resolution urging then-President Trump to pardon former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, who stole millions of classified documents and then fled to Russia. At the hearing, Gabbard made no attempt to justify the resolution, and would not answer questions about it directly, though she described Snowden’s actions as illegal.

“I will be responsible for protecting our nation's secrets,” she said, promising to take steps to “prevent another Snowden-like leak.” However, she repeatedly refused to describe Snowden as a “traitor,” despite being urged to do so.

A more tense exchange occurred when Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., asked Gabbard to defend her February 2022 statements blaming Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine on NATO expansion—a view refuted by all NATO allies, Ukrainians, and the U.S. intelligence community. Putin himself even contradicted that idea at the time of the invasion, when he described his motivation as a need to correct the “historical mistake” of allowing Ukraine to gain independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Bennet’s voice was fiery: “You basically said that Putin was justified in rolling over the peaceful border of Ukraine, the first time since World War II that a free nation had been invaded by a totalitarian state! And you were there at 11:30 p.m. that night to say that you were with them, not us!”

Gabbard appeared annoyed and urged the senator to look at the statements in the “wider context” of her full remarks. She later expressed offense when asked whether Russia might get favorable treatment in U.S. intelligence assessments, and she promised to provide a “full intelligence picture so that you all can make the best informed policy decisions for the safety of the American people.”

Patel, in his hearing, also tried to distance himself from previous statements that have described the press, former Trump officials, and Democratic law makers as a malevolent “deep state.”

In one exchange, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., asked Patel about specific statements he made on podcasts and at public events. When he said he did not recall his specific words, she entered his recorded statements into the record.

But the Patel who appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee today sounded very different from the man who made those remarks. “I have no interest, no desire, and will not, If confirmed, go backwards,” he said. “There will be no politicization at the FBI. There will be no retributive actions taken by any FBI.”

Patel did find support from Republican lawmakers on the judiciary committee for his role in attempting to discredit the FBI investigation into Donald Trump’s ties to Russia. Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., as he has done previously, referred to the premise of the investigation as a “hoax” and praised Patel for “exposing” it.

That reading of history stands in contrast to other facts. In December 2019, the FBI Inspector General determined that the bureau’s investigation was legitimate, despite errors FBI officials made in obtaining FISA warrants. And the Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee and the Office of Director of National Intelligence both released reports detailing extensive efforts by the Russian government to influence U.S. presidential elections.

A special counsel investigation led by Robert Mueller found that Donald Trump “welcomed” Russian interference efforts and may have committed obstruction 10 times in refusing to answer questions—though Mueller ultimately decided against trying to prosecute a sitting U.S. president for obstruction.

Gabbard and Patel both calmly reassured senators that they would use their authorities and tools lawfully and support the intelligence and law enforcement officials working under them. But senators paid relatively little attention to Patel’s actual plans for the FBI, which include closing the FBI headquarters in Washington D.C. and relocating FBI officers there to other locations around the country. It was a pledge Patel repeated Thursday.

Both nominees expressed a desire to reform Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which covers things like surveillance warrants for Americans caught up in investigations relating to foreign individuals.

“702 is a critical tool, and I'm proud of the reforms that have been implemented, and I'm proud to work with Congress moving forward to implement more reforms,” Patel said.

It’s not clear whether either nominee will be confirmed, but one Senate staffer told Defense One that Gabbard likely does not have enough Republican support to get the job.

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

20. China makes rare-earth discovery: "This changes everything"

Will it. I want to hear from some more experts on this.

China makes rare-earth discovery: "This changes everything"

Newsweek · by Micah McCartney · January 30, 2025

The discovery of an enormous rare-earth deposit in southwestern China will strengthen the country's stranglehold on this strategically vital resource and fuel its high-tech ambitions.

Newsweek has reached out to the China Geological Society and U.S. Geological Survey with emailed requests for comment.

Why It Matters

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are essential to a range of high-tech applications, from electric vehicles and smartphones to radar and guided-missile systems. China controls some 70 percent of worldwide rare earth output and over 90 percent of refining capacity.

The U.S. imports nearly all its rare-earth elements, with China supplying 72 percent between 2019 and 2022, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Washington views Beijing's dominance—and its willingness to ban exports of critical elements such as gallium amid the great tech war—as a critical threat to national security.

What To Know

The high-volume reserve of rare-earth elements discovered in the Honghe region of Yunnan Province is estimated to contain 470,000 tons of rare earth elements, state media cited the China Geological Survey as saying last week.

The site is expected to become China's largest deposit of medium-to-heavy REEs, which are relatively scarce. These elements are critical for EV, jet engine, and missile components due to their ability to retain magnetic properties at high temperatures.

Chinese-made Shenyang J-35A fighter jet flies in Zhuhai, in south China's Guangdong province on November 15, 2024. Chinese-made Shenyang J-35A fighter jet flies in Zhuhai, in south China's Guangdong province on November 15, 2024. Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images

What People Are Saying

Li Wei, researcher, China Geological Survey told the Daily Galaxy: "This changes everything. With over 470,000 tons of rare earths, China is now even better positioned to control the global supply and meet skyrocketing demand."

Julie Klinger, associate professor of geography and spatial sciences at the University of Delaware, told Newsweek: "The key question is whether developing this deposit aligns with China's broader strategies of emphasizing value-added processing of rare-earth elements imported from elsewhere, instead of new primary extraction in socio-ecologically important areas within its borders.

"Another question I have is whether these and other rare-earth deposits under exploration are truly destined for renewable energy, security, and scientific technologies, or for truly non-critical, if amusing, toys."

Professor Zhang Min, international trade expert at Peking University, told the Galaxy: "This is more than just a mine. It's a strategic weapon. Whoever controls rare-earth elements controls global technology."

Wang Xueqiu, chief scientist at the Institute of Physical and Chemical Exploration, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, told state media outlet CCTV: "Each new energy vehicle requires 0.8 kilograms (1.8 pounds) of key rare-earth elements, leading to exceptionally high demand, which continues to grow each year."

What's Next?

The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party has launched a working group tasked with drafting legislation to reduce U.S. reliance on China for critical minerals.

Update 1/30/25, 2:20 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Julie Klinger.

Newsweek · by Micah McCartney · January 30, 2025

21. The Case for Certified Strategic Planners in the U.S. Government

Here are my thoughts from 2009 on national security professional education.

A National Security Act of 2009?

A Short Recommendation for a Possible Revision of the National Security Act of 1947

https://drive.google.com/file/d/16u7yH1svSZjM1FtvTXIQQLhUtn72RwTx/view?usp=sharing

https://smallwarsjournal.com/2009/01/18/a-proposal-for-a-unifying-strategic-doctrine-for-national-security/

If someone were to give guidance to those whom would craft the legislation perhaps it would look like this:

1. Ensure that every cabinet agency in the Executive Branch has as a core mission protection of US National Security.

2. Establish a Joint Common Planning process applicable to all Departments to ensure synchronization and orchestration of plans, operations, and activities across the Interagency from the Country Team’s Mission Strategic Plan to the Geographic Combatant Commander’s Theater Security Cooperation Plan and his War and Contingency Plans through the National Security Strategy of the United States.

3. Establish a National Security Management Structure with authority and resources to discipline the National Security planning and execution process.

4. Establish core education and training requirements to ensure the development of a cadre of National Security professionals within each Department that will allow them to take their functional department expertise and apply it to support the US National Security mission.

5. Simply, simplify, simplify. We have made a complex world more complex since 9-11.

The Case for Certified Strategic Planners in the U.S. Government

https://www.strategycentral.io/post/the-case-for-certified-strategic-planners-in-the-u-s-government

20 hours ago5 min read

STRATEGY CENTRAL

FOR AND BY PRACTITIONERS

By Robin Champ, Vice President – Strategic Foresight, LBL Strategies

Introduction

The importance of strategic planning and management in the U.S. government cannot be overstated in an era of complex global challenges and rapid change. Yet, too often, the task of charting the future is assigned to individuals who lack formal training in the discipline. During my 20 years of experience leading strategic planning for government agencies, I frequently observed well-intentioned but underprepared individuals attempting to navigate the intricate world of strategy.

Now, as I teach strategy to professionals from across the public sector, I see participants arrive with polished presentations they call their "strategy." These efforts often represent a good start—they are visually appealing and show an earnest desire to comply with organizational requirements—but they frequently lack actionable or measurable elements. Commonly, they are cluttered with undefined terms like "moon shots," "imperatives," and "pillars," leading to confusion and limited effectiveness. The good news is these professionals are showing up for training, determined to enhance their skills and make a meaningful impact on their organizations.

This lack of formal training and certification for strategists in the U.S. government represents a critical gap. Strategic planning—a process fundamental to organizational success and national security—requires a level of expertise that cannot be acquired through informal practice alone. While the government mandates certifications for program managers and acquisition professionals, there is no equivalent requirement for the individuals responsible for shaping the visions and plans that guide the future of our nation. This gap is more than an oversight; it is a strategic liability.

Why Certification Matters

Strategic planning is not merely a bureaucratic exercise; it is the foundation upon which organizations anticipate challenges, allocate resources, and position themselves for success. Without proper training, strategic planners risk creating flawed or superficial strategies that waste resources, fail to achieve objectives, or jeopardize mission outcomes. Certification can address these issues by ensuring that strategic planners possess:

Core Competencies: Certified professionals would master foundational skills such as environmental scanning, stakeholder analysis, strategy development, strategic communication, and performance measurement.
Consistent Methodologies: Formal training ensures a standardized approach to strategy development, reducing variability and quality gaps across agencies.
Adaptability and Innovation: Strategic planning and management certification would emphasize skills in innovation and adaptive thinking, which are crucial for responding to dynamic global challenges.
Accountability: Certification ensures planners are held to professional standards, reinforcing their responsibility to deliver actionable, evidence-based strategies.

The Problem with the Status Quo

During my career, I encountered strategic plans that were little more than exercises in compliance or bureaucracy. One agency asserted, “nothing has changed in the past four years,” and recycled its previous strategy with minor updates to performance measures. Another agency assembled its strategy by stitching together content from subordinate organizations’ websites. Such practices reflect a systemic failure to take strategy seriously and highlight the need for professionalization.

The lack of rigor in strategic planning leads to several consequences:

Missed Opportunities: Without foresight and analysis, organizations may fail to anticipate or capitalize on critical trends.
Inefficient Resource Allocation: Poorly designed strategies often lead to wasted time, money, and effort.
Erosion of Credibility: A lack of professionalism in strategic planning undermines trust in the government’s ability to lead effectively.
Execution Failure: Agencies frequently do not review their strategies on a regular basis and often do not ensure planned initiatives are developed and implemented to support its achievement.

The Benefits of a Certified Career Field

Establishing a certified strategic planning and management career field within the U.S. government would yield significant benefits:

Enhanced Mission Effectiveness: Skilled planners produce strategies that align organizational goals with national priorities, driving better results.
Improved Coordination: Certified professionals trained in best practices would create more cohesive and collaborative agency strategies.
Cost Savings: Investing in better strategies reduces the waste of resources on poorly conceived initiatives.
Workforce Professionalization: Certification would attract high-caliber talent to government service, elevating the prestige and effectiveness of the field.
Global Leadership: A commitment to strategic excellence would position the U.S. as a leader in innovative, forward-thinking governance.

Time for Action

In an era defined by rapid technological change, geopolitical uncertainty, and complex threats, the U.S. government cannot afford to neglect the importance of strategic planning. A certified career field for strategic planners is not just a good idea but an urgent necessity.

Fortunately, a framework already exists to address this need. The International Association for Strategy Professionals (IASP), a nonprofit organization, offers a comprehensive certification program for strategy professionals. This program equips individuals with the skills and knowledge required to excel in strategic planning using globally recognized best practices. By requiring government strategy professionals to obtain this certification, the U.S. government can ensure a standardized level of expertise across agencies. Leveraging an established certification body like IASP would streamline implementation and elevate the quality and consistency of government strategy development.

The professionals who attend training programs demonstrate a commendable commitment to improving their organizations. The government would further empower these individuals by formalizing certification requirements, providing them with the tools and knowledge necessary to drive meaningful change. The stakes are too high to leave the future in the hands of amateurs. It is time to prioritize the professionalization of strategic planning in the U.S. government and invest in the training and certification to ensure our nation is prepared for today's and tomorrow's challenges.

About The Author

Robin L. Champ is a visionary leader in strategic foresight and strategy management, currently serving as Vice President of Strategic Foresight at LBL Strategies. With a distinguished career in the Department of Defense and the U.S. Secret Service (USSS), she retired as Chief of the Enterprise Strategy Division at USSS, leading foresight and strategic planning efforts. Previously, she was Chief of the Global Futures Office at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, pioneering strategic planning and management methodologies. At the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), she played a key role in the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and authored the DLA Transformation Roadmap. Recognized as a U.S. Army “Mad Scientist,” she co-founded the Federal Foresight Advocacy Alliance and serves as Co-Chair of the International Association for Strategy Professionals Government Community of Practice. A sought-after keynote speaker, she has addressed top defense, security, and strategy institutions. Her accolades include a Vice Presidential commendation, the DTRA Director’s Distinguished Civilian Service Medal, and the USSS Director’s Impact Award. Robin holds a Bachelor of Science in Journalism/Advertising from the University of Maryland and a Master of Science in National Resource Strategy from the Eisenhower School, and is a graduate of Harvard Kennedy Scho

22. Philippine president offers a deal to China: Stop sea aggression and I'll return missiles to US

Philippine president offers a deal to China: Stop sea aggression and I'll return missiles to US

By JIM GOMEZ

Updated 6:29 AM EST, January 30, 2025

AP · by JIM GOMEZ · January 30, 2025

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. offered on Friday to remove a U.S. missile system from the Philippines if China halts what he called its “aggressive and coercive behavior” in the disputed South China Sea.

The U.S. Army installed the Typhon mid-range missile system in the northern Philippines in April last year to support what the longtime treaty allies described as training for joint combat readiness.

China has repeatedly demanded that the Philippines remove the missile system, saying it was “inciting geopolitical confrontation and an arms race.”

Asked by reporters about China’s criticism of the missile system, Marcos said he did not understand the Chinese position because the Philippines does not comment on China’s missile systems which “are a thousand times more powerful than what we have.”

“Let’s make a deal with China: Stop claiming our territory, stop harassing our fishermen and let them have a living, stop ramming our boats, stop water cannoning our people, stop firing lasers at us and stop your aggressive and coercive behavior, and we’ll return the typhoon missiles,” Marcos told reporters in central Cebu province.

“Let them stop everything they’re doing and I’ll return all of those,” he said.

Chinese officials did not immediately comment on the Philippine leader’s remarks.

The U.S. Army’s mobile Typhon missile system, which consists of a launcher and at least 16 Standard Missile-6 and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, was repositioned about two weeks ago from the northern Philippines to a strategic area nearer the capital, Manila, in consultation with Philippine defense officials, a senior Philippine official told The Associated Press.

The Philippine official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of a lack of authority to discuss the sensitive issue in public, said the U.S. missile system is now nearer an area where Chinese and Philippine coast guard and navy forces have been involved in increasingly tense faceoffs in the South China Sea.

Tomahawk missiles can travel over 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers), which puts parts of mainland China within their range. The missile system will remain in the Philippines indefinitely, the Philippine official said.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said last week that the Philippines is “creating tensions and antagonism in the region and inciting geopolitical confrontation and an arms race” by allowing the U.S. missile system to be positioned in its territory.

“This is a highly dangerous move and an extremely irresponsible choice,” Mao said.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro has rejected China’s demand that the missile system be removed as interference in Philippine internal affairs.

The U.S. and the Philippines have repeatedly condemned China’s increasingly assertive actions t o press its territorial claims in the South China Sea, where hostilities have flared over the past two years with repeated clashes between Chinese and Philippine coast guard forces and accompanying vessels.

Aside from China and the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims in the busy waterway, a key shipping route which is also believed to be sitting atop large undersea deposits of gas and oil.

AP · by JIM GOMEZ · January 30, 2025

23. Sweden to provide Ukraine with $1.2 billion military aid package

Sweden to provide Ukraine with $1.2 billion military aid package

Defense News · by Rudy Ruitenberg · January 30, 2025

PARIS — Sweden will provide Ukraine with 13.5 billion kronor (US$1.23 billion) in funding and equipment in its biggest military aid package yet, the government said on Thursday.

The Nordic country will double the amount of Stridsbåt 90 combat boats it’s donating from Swedish armed forces stocks to 32 boats, Minister for Defence Pål Jonson said in a post on X. Other equipment will include 1,500 TOW anti-tank missiles and 200 AT4 anti-tank weapons, with total donations from stocks amounting to about $294 million, or around 25% of the aid package.

Sweden will provide about 5.9 billion kronor to buy newly produced defense equipment for Ukraine from Swedish and international manufacturers, the government said in a statement. That financing can be directed to priority needs such as artillery, long-range strike capabilities and drones, according to Jonson.

“A short delivery time is important,” the minister said.

The latest aid package, Stockholm’s 18th, brings Sweden’s military support for Ukraine to about 61.9 billion kronor, the government said. The country has been one of the top donors of military aid to Ukraine, ranking sixth in terms of the absolute level of material support provided, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s Ukraine Support Tracker.

Another $71 million will go to repair and maintenance of equipment already donated by Sweden. The Swedes have previously provided Ukraine with gear including Leopard 2 battle tanks, CV90 combat vehicles and Archer self-propelled howitzers.

The country will provide about $250 million towards different international funds, and allocate $178 million for the Danish model of ordering weapons from Ukraine’s defense industry, according to Jonson.

“This also builds sustainability and resilience within Ukraine,” he said.

The intention is to allocate about 1 billion kronor to the production of Ukrainian long-range missiles and long-range drones, according to the government.

About Rudy Ruitenberg

Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He started his career at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.

24. US foreign aid freeze is upending global aid and the work of contractors

Say what you want about the process and intent, I do think that a zero based review of aid is necessary to ensure that all our aid funding does go to advance US interests (of course we need clearly defined interests and the linkage between aid and interests). I think we may find that we are providing aid to organizations that are opposed to US national security objectives. Aid to such organizations does need to be eliminated.

US foreign aid freeze is upending global aid and the work of contractors | CNN

CNN · by Lauren Kent · January 30, 2025

The US Agency of International Development (USAID) has issued 'stop-work orders' impacting multiple sectors following a directive from Secretary of State Marco Rubio to pause most US foreign aid.

J. David Ake/Getty Images/File

CNN —

The extent of the impacts of the Trump administration’s sudden 90-day freeze of almost all foreign aid is still unclear almost a week on, as officials and aid workers overseas try to make sense of which activities must be suspended.

The suspension of foreign aid was outlined in a diplomatic cable from Secretary of State Marco Rubio last Friday.

In addition to widespread confusion around ongoing aid projects, the suspension means some aid contractors are not being paid for contracts and work that they have already completed, one aid industry source told CNN, speaking anonymously for fear of retribution.

Contractors working with USAID – many of them US-based companies and small businesses – often front the money for aid work, then submit invoices and get reimbursed later.

Now, some are not being paid for millions of dollars’ worth of services already rendered, the aid industry source said. That means there will be significant furloughs of staff at many aid contractors and subcontractors.

Palestinians queue to receive food aid parcels in Bureij in the central Gaza Strip on January 23.

Eyad Baba/AFP/Getty Images

CNN has reached out to USAID and the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for comment.

“We were told to lay off all of our staff,” said Annie Feighery, the CEO of mWater, a US company that provides a free digital platform to governments and organizations around the world to help improve access to water. She said that as a subcontractor, the firm is “carrying a debt load of our projects” and has not yet been paid for work done in January.

The USAID stop-work order has taken out 80% of her company’s budget, she said.

“It’s going to put a lot of small businesses out of work,” Feighery said, noting that mWater staff in Indonesia, Haiti, Kenya, Uganda and the US are impacted. “If we’re allowed in May to go back to work, we will have to do the work in May and get paid in June… It’s horrific, you know, to imagine any company going two quarters without their funding.”

She added that companies working in the technology aid space are also concerned about other nations, like China, stepping in to fill the void during the 90-day pause on foreign aid. Foreign governments using data systems that are US-based, like those of mWater, is better than having them run on Chinese technology, she argued.

A humanitarian official told CNN that organizations are concerned about foreign powers like China and Russia using the US aid freeze to increase their own soft power overseas. And there are concerns that non-state actors, like terrorist groups and child soldier recruiters, could gain influence in areas where US funding currently supports refugee camps, the official highlighted.

Widespread confusion over waiver for ‘humanitarian aid’

Several international NGOs told CNN they were seeking clarifications or did not yet have answers regarding which aid funding would be suspended.

The State Department said in a media note on Wednesday that the freeze does not include humanitarian aid, “which is defined as ‘life-saving medicine, medical services, food, shelter, and subsistence assistance, as well as supplies and reasonable administrative costs as necessary to deliver such assistance.’”

The note also claimed that “critical national security waivers have been granted, including to ensure the protection of US personnel overseas, facilitate the repatriation of illegal aliens, enforce non-proliferation obligations, and much more.”

The waiver on “life-saving humanitarian assistance” specified that it does not apply to “activities that involve abortions, family planning conferences … gender or DEI ideology programs, transgender surgeries, or other non-life saving assistance,” as CNN reported.

The State Department claimed it had “provided straightforward guidance” about waivers to the freeze last Friday.

However, multiple international aid workers told CNN that there is widespread confusion about what the humanitarian aid waiver actually means and what it covers.

The humanitarian official told CNN there was “no clarity at all.”

The official said that even though the waiver gives an exemption for ‘life-saving humanitarian aid,’ it’s not clear if that includes funding for staffers who carry out the work. Their organization has been unable to withdraw US funds at all, and is exploring whether to put staff on furlough, because it doesn’t have cash reserves to pay people.

USAID funds foreign aid projects in more than 100 countries around the world. Other agencies like the State Department, Department of Health and Human Services, Defense Department, Treasury and the Peace Corps also control portions of the US foreign aid budget.

Foreign assistance has been the target of ire from Republicans in Congress and Trump administration officials, but the funding accounts for very little of the overall US budget, at about 1% of federal budget obligations.

“The administration is asking a lot of the right questions, but they’re asking them the wrong way, and in far too of an abrupt fashion that’s far more disruptive to the lives and livelihoods of human beings around the world than it could be,” said John Oldfield, the chief executive of Accelerate Global, which advises nonprofits and companies working in global development.

“The sick are getting poorer and the poor getting sicker,” Oldfield said of the developing world. “People are losing their jobs. People are losing their livelihoods. This is happening right now, even within the first 48 or 72 hours after these decisions by the White House.”

Concerns about development aid

A source working in the US foreign aid industry stressed that the humanitarian aid waiver does not include most development aid, which also saves lives, for example through improving water security, food security, sanitation and hygiene.

“Development aid is longer-term work and that is still on pause,” said the source, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisals.

In many cases, the stop-work orders stemming from the US State Department aid freeze have suspended projects that are done in support of US security and global security interests, according to aid workers.

Boxes of relief items from USAID for the victims of super typhoon Haiyan, at Villamor Air Base in Manila, Philippines, are pictured in 2013. USAID funds aid projects in more than 100 countries around the world.

Cheryl Ravelo/Reuters/File

The World Council of Credit Unions, headquartered in Wisconsin, said in a statement Wednesday that following the stop-work orders, it had suspended a USAID project in Peru and Ecuador that helps Venezuelan refugees with credit lending, savings, and with obtaining “documentation that allows them to integrate into their local economies, thereby stemming their migration to the US.”

The international credit organization also said it had suspended work on its USAID GROW Project in Ukraine, which “supports agricultural production and food security, an area Ukraine is central to in supporting the global food chain.”

In Ukraine, multiple organizations said their work had been impacted by the freeze on USAID funding. The director of the All-Ukrainian Association of Communities, Ivan Slobodianyk, told CNN that his organization was urgently looking for replacement funding to support its food security vegetable seed program in the southern Kherson region.

CNN reported Wednesday that the freeze also impacts funding used to train international partners on countering the trade of illicit narcotics and human trafficking.

Funding halt to HIV programs

A World Health Organization (WHO) spokesperson told CNN that the agency welcomes the US administration’s decision on Tuesday to include the funding of HIV medicines in the waiver. “But WHO remains very concerned in regards to a funding halt for other parts of PEPFAR (the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief),” the spokesperson said.

“A funding halt for HIV programmes can put people living with HIV at immediate increased risk of illness and death and undermine efforts to prevent transmission in communities and countries. Such measures, if prolonged, could lead to rises in new infections and deaths, reversing decades of progress and potentially taking the world back to the 1980s and 1990s when millions died of HIV every year globally, including many in the United States of America,” the WHO said in a statement.

“We call on the United States government to enable additional exemptions to ensure the delivery of lifesaving HIV treatment and care.”

The chief executive of the Gates Foundation, Mark Suzman, said in a statement: “US assistance programs, such as PEPFAR, deliver life-saving medicine, medical care, and combat hunger and starvation. These programs protect the health of Americans, bolster US national security, and build stronger economies.”

The foundation is committed to working with the administration on these issues, he added, “and encourage them to ensure this critical funding continues immediately while their reviews are underway.”

CNN’s Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report.

CNN · by Lauren Kent · January 30, 2025

25. Crimson Moon Rising Part 2 of 4: The Rescue

Part1 can be read here: https://www.strategycentral.io/post/crimson-moon-rising

Fiction is useful (or AKA useful fiction) to help illustrate a difficult subject: resistance. People need help visualizing what resistance might look like.

Crimson Moon Rising

https://www.strategycentral.io/post/crimson-moon-rising-1?utm

43 minutes ago15 min read

Part 2 of 4: The Rescue

By Maurice "Duc" Duclos - January 31, 2025

Kai & the resistance

Kai pressed deeper into the rubble as drone rotors sliced through the night. Five machines hunting through Old Town's ruins, their whine like angry insects searching for prey.

Beside him, Liang went still as one dropped lower. Through broken concrete, they studied their target - the former police headquarters, now the occupation's interrogation center. Floodlights carved razor shadows across steel walls. The utility tunnel entrance waited exactly where Mei said it would be in the east yard.

The drone's buzz vibrated through the concrete at their backs. Not the usual security models. New sensors hung beneath sleek frames, predatory.

"Different design," Liang breathed, hand moving to his weapon. The drone swept past, missing them by meters.

Kai raised his camera, the telephoto lens finding the tunnel entrance. Working fast, he documented guard positions, cameras, the power box for the electrified fence. If Ying was still alive inside, they'd have one chance.

The drone banked sharply, dropping closer. Dust swirled beneath its rotors as it hovered directly overhead. Neither man breathed. Its sensors probed the darkness around them, hunting.

"Time to go." Kai's whisper was lost in the drone's whine. They retreated through the ruins, using broken walls and twisted rebar for cover. The mechanical buzz followed them but grew fainter as they put distance between themselves and the facility.

Two streets away, they split up, taking parallel routes through the shadows. Three checkpoints, three pauses to watch for tails. At the final corner, Kai caught Liang's signal - clear behind.

The van waited in darkness, its faded delivery logo barely visible. Kai flashed his light at the driver's window - two quick, pause, one. Seconds stretched until Mei's response: one long, pause, two short. Clear to approach.

Inside, monitors and comm gear packed every corner of their mobile command center. Liang dropped into his spot, tension bleeding into a grin.

"Honey, we're home."

Mei's fingers never stopped moving across her keyboard. "Early. Problems?"

"New hardware up there." Kai handed her the camera. "Zhan's upgraded his toys."

Mei's expression hardened as she studied the photos. "Thermal imaging." She zoomed in, tapping the sensor pods. "They see heat. Body temperature. And they're AI-driven - never miss a sweep."

"Perfect," Liang muttered. "Now they can see us through walls."

Mei was already grabbing her jacket. "Need supplies. And command needs to know about Ying."

"What kind of supplies?"

"The kind that'll make us invisible." She paused at the door. "Get some sleep. Tomorrow night gets complicated."

Kai watched her slip into the darkness. Through the van's walls, the drone whine continued its relentless patrol. He checked his watch - sixteen hours until next dark period. Sixteen hours before they could make another attempt. Somewhere in that concrete fortress, Ying was running out of time.

"Get some sleep," he told Liang. "I'll take first watch."

"If she breaks—" Liang began.

"She won't." Kai's voice was firm, but doubt gnawed at him. Ying was tough, but Zhan's methods were brutal. The entire resistance network could unravel if she talked.

The night deepened around the van, and somewhere above, mechanical insects continued their relentless patrol, hunting for prey in the darkness.

Mei returned near dawn, carrying takeout bags that filled the van with the smell of dumplings and coffee. She'd barely settled when she pulled the encrypted message from her pocket.

"Orders," she said, pulling up a webpage. The trigraph system was old but elegant - impossible to crack without knowing both where to find the key and how to read it. Each day, a different webpage, a different starting point, text copied backwards. Even the occupation's best cryptographers would see nothing but random letters.

Her fingers hesitated over the keyboard as she decoded the transmission. She ran it again, then looked at Liang. "Check my work."

Liang studied both the coded message and the webpage. His expression darkened. "That can't be right."

"What is it?" Kai asked.

"Primary mission is extraction," Mei said quietly. "But if we can't get her out..." She met Kai's eyes. "We terminate."

"No." Liang's voice was hard. "We don't kill our own."

"If she talks, the network burns," Mei said. "You know what Zhan's capable of. The Northern Province—"

"I was there." Liang's hands clenched. "I saw what his interrogators did. But this is Ying."

Kai studied the cold metal wall, instead seeing the faces of resistance members who'd vanished into Zhan's detention centers. Most never emerged, and those who did were broken, their information already extracted.

"We kill her?" Liang demanded. "Our own?"

The silence in the van grew heavier. If they couldn't extract Ying, if she broke under interrogation, the entire network would unravel. And if their team couldn't carry out the kill order, another might already be moving into position.

"Then we better not fail." Kai's voice was steel.

"I have a plan," Mei said, breaking the tension. She pulled something from her bags—sheets of material, dark on one side and silvery on the other, crinkling as she spread them out. But first, we need to test something."

She grabbed a handheld device. "Commercial IR thermometer. Not military grade, but it'll work as a demonstration." She pointed it at Kai. "Normal body temperature is 37°C. To their thermal imaging, you're a flare." The display showed bright red numbers. "Drones scan the 8- to 15-micron range—exactly where humans radiate."

She wrapped the Mylar around her arm, checking the reading again. The numbers plummeted. "Space blankets reflect almost all infrared. They're not perfect—heat leaks from edges and gaps. And they transfer heat fast. It'll last five minutes max before you show up on their scopes."

"And if we overheat?" Liang asked, running the crinkly material through his fingers.

"That's the tricky part." Mei reached into another bag, pulled out two black umbrellas. "But it's supposed to rain tonight. With these over the mylar, you'll look like any civilians caught in the weather. Just shadows in the dark. Umbrellas hide the heat leaks from above."

"The Crimson Moon's newest weapons - tin foil and corner store umbrellas," Liang smirked. "We're getting high-tech."

Mei ignored him, spreading out a rough blueprint of the compound. "And I've got something else. Local contact pulled guard rotation schedules. Plus..." She produced a handful of RFID badges. "Building access. Can't guarantee which one will work, but one of them should."

Kai studied the blueprint, already mapping their approach. "Walk me through it."

"The diversion team hits at 0100. You and..." Mei gestured at Liang, who was nodding off against the van wall, "...sleeping beauty there need to breach the east gate, cross to the utility tunnel, and be in position before then."

Kai snapped his fingers. "Pay attention."

Liang jerked upright, rubbing his jawline. "Breach gate, cross yard, take tunnel, diversion, level two, spring Ying. See? Got it. Just resting my eyes."

"Okay, both of you sleep now," Mei said, returning to her monitors. "You are going to need it. I'll monitor patrol patterns until tonight."

Kai leaned back, keeping his hand near his weapon. The kill order hung heavy between them. In a few hours, they'd either rescue Ying or... He pushed the thought away, focusing on the drone whine that had become the city's deadly lullaby.

Above their heads, something mechanical whirred past the van's roof. Kai's hand tightened on his weapon, but Mei shook her head.

"Municipal cleaner," she said, eyes on her monitors. "Different sound signature. Get some rest - I've got watch."

Sleep came in fragments. Kai dreamed of concrete corridors and Ying's laughter from resistance meetings that felt like a lifetime ago. When he opened his eyes, the van's interior was bathed in deep blue dusk. Liang was already awake, checking his gear with practiced efficiency.

Mei handed each of them a bundled mylar blanket and umbrella. "Remember - five minutes max once you wrap up. Then heat bleeds through."

"Status on the diversion team?" Kai asked, securing the blanket inside his jacket. His fingers brushed against his crimson scarf - they'd need those symbols of defiance soon enough.

"In position. South team's ready." Mei's fingers moved across her keyboard. "Drones running standard patrol patterns. No changes in guard rotation."

Kai checked his watch: 0037. Twenty-three minutes until they needed to be in position.

When he opened the van's rear doors, the night air hit him. He and Liang moved through shadows they'd mapped during recon, working block by block toward the facility's eastern perimeter. The drone buzz grew louder as they approached, their mechanical whine a constant reminder of watchful eyes above.

At fifty meters from the fence line, they paused behind a rusted shipping container. Kai checked his watch: 0055. Rain fell in a light mist, collecting in oily puddles that reflected the facility's searchlights. The perfect cover for what came next.

"Time to go," he whispered, pulling out his crimson scarf and tucking it beneath his jacket. The weight of it reminded him what they were fighting for. "Badges ready?"

Liang pulled out the first RFID card. They crossed the final stretch of broken concrete to the gate, boots silent on the wet ground. The fence loomed ahead, razor wire glinting in the dim light.

Red light.

He tried the second badge, fingers steady despite the exposed position. Overhead, drone rotors whined closer.

Another red light.

Third badge. Nothing happened for a long moment. Kai held his breath. A drone's shadow passed over them.

Green light.

The gate clicked open with a sound that seemed impossibly loud in the darkness. They slipped through, immediately pressing against the inside of the fence. The yard stretched thirty meters to the tunnel entrance, every inch exposed to the drones' thermal cameras. Guard towers rose at each corner, their searchlights cutting lazy arcs through the rain.

"Now," Kai whispered, pulling out his mylar blanket. The material crinkled as they wrapped themselves completely, leaving only the smallest gap to see through. They opened the umbrellas, hunching against the steady drizzle. Above them, rotors whined in their programmed pattern.

They moved across the yard in short bursts, timing their progress between drone passes. Two machines crossed overhead, their sensors sweeping. Kai and Liang froze, hunched beneath their umbrellas like any civilians caught in the rain. The drones hovered, searching... then continued their patrol pattern. Mei's trick was working.

The tunnel entrance grew closer—a black rectangle in the concrete wall. A third drone dropped lower than the others, its rotors stirring the rain into swirling patterns. Kai's breath was hot inside the mylar, and sweat was already beginning to form beneath the reflective material. They had minutes at most before their heat started bleeding through.

At the tunnel door, Liang pulled out his digital bypass tool while Kai kept watch. The device cycled through combinations, each failed attempt marking precious seconds lost.

"Nothing," Liang muttered, trying another sequence. The lock's red light blinked mockingly. He tried a third set - still nothing. Above them, drone rotors whined closer.

"We need that door open," Kai whispered. "Now."

"No good," Liang whispered, then cracked a sly smile. "Plan B - old school." He produced a spring-loaded punch tool. The metallic rod fit perfectly against the first hinge pin. One sharp tap, and the pin slid free with barely a sound. Second pin. Third. The door shifted, starting to lean. Together, they caught it before it could crash down, easing it sideways.

Inside the tunnel, they stripped off the mylar blankets and stuffed the crinkly material into their packs. The passage stretched ahead into darkness, pipes and conduits running along its walls. Somewhere above, Ying was waiting.

"Hold position," Mei's voice was sharp in their earpieces. "Three minutes until the south team hits. Stay in the tunnel until the diversion starts."

They pressed into the shadows, the facility's door propped beside them. Kai checked his watch—0059. His hand tightened on his weapon as they waited in the tunnel's darkness—one more minute.

A muffled explosion rocked the night, followed by another. The concrete walls around them seemed to shudder as a series of detonations lit up the compound's southern edge.

"South team just hit the compound," Mei reported. "Guards are responding. Drones redirecting to the blast site."

Through the tunnel's entrance, they could see emergency lights painting the yard in spinning red. Guards shouted orders, their boots pounding on pavement as they rushed toward the chaos.

"Moving," Kai whispered. They pushed deeper into the tunnel, using their knowledge of the blueprint to navigate the maze of pipes and conduits. The passage curved upward, leading to a maintenance access point that would put them just below the detention level.

Another explosion rattled the facility. Closer this time.

"That wasn't us," Mei's voice crackled with concern. "South team's still—" Static cut through her transmission. "—jamming our comms. Something's—"

The signal died.

Kai and Liang exchanged glances in the dim emergency lighting. Without Mei's eyes on the security feeds, they were running blind. But they couldn't stop now. Not with Ying so close.

The tunnel opened into a utility room, walls lined with circuit breakers and maintenance panels. Steam pipes snaked across the ceiling, and the air smelled of ozone and machine oil. Kai eased one of the inner doors open, checking the main corridor. Emergency lighting cast everything in a blood-red glow.

Footsteps echoed from around the corner - a pair of guards moving fast. Kai pulled the door nearly shut, leaving just a crack. The guards rushed past, their radios crackling with orders about the fuel depot attack.

"Clear," he breathed.

They slipped into the corridor, its layout still betraying its origins as a police station. Processing desks and administrative offices lined the walls, stripped of their original purpose and now part of the occupation’s machinery. The stairwell to the detention level was straight ahead, past the security station.

Another explosion rumbled in the distance, sending vibrations through the walls. Kai gestured for Liang to follow, moving low toward the security station’s reinforced window. Inside, two guards sat at their desk, their backs to the door, engrossed in the monitors. A red warning light flashed on the console. One guard grabbed a radio.

“Echo-Three, respond,” the guard barked. Static crackled. “Echo-Three, communication check.” Static answered again. The guard muttered a curse, switching channels.

“Cameras are glitching,” his partner said, slapping the side of his monitor. “East sector’s nothing but snow.”

Mei was still in the game, jamming the cameras even without direct comms. But every second she bought was precious, and their window wouldn’t last.

Another explosion shook the building, closer this time. The guards leaned toward their monitors, momentarily distracted. Kai touched his suppressed .22 and glanced at Liang. A tilt of the head, a nod in return. Liang was already moving, pistol drawn.

The door opened with barely a whisper. The guards turned too late—Kai fired twice into the first guard’s chest, the subsonic rounds barely louder than a hand clap. The man slumped forward over the desk, gasping but not dead. Liang stepped forward, firing rapidly into the second guard, his pistol spitting four quick shots. The guard collapsed in a heap, groaning weakly. Liang fired again, this time into his head.

Kai finished off his target with a final shot to the neck, the suppressed crack muffled by the console. Blood pooled under the desk as they quickly dragged the bodies out of sight.

Liang rifled through the guards’ pockets, retrieving spare key cards. “Nothing but pistols,” he muttered, shaking his head. “No rifles.”

“Station guards aren’t issued them,” Kai replied quietly, already scanning the monitors. Most feeds showed static thanks to Mei’s interference, but one displayed the stairwell. It was clear for now. Another flickered briefly, showing guards rushing toward the southern explosions.

They slipped into the stairwell and ascended quickly but quietly. Two flights up, Kai paused at the second-floor door. Through its narrow window, he caught a glimpse of the detention wing’s security station.

Unlike the first, this one was more exposed. The desk sat at the center of a wide corridor, with two guards stationed there. Both wore sidearms, and their alert posture suggested they weren’t as distracted as the ones below. Emergency lighting bathed the area in crimson, the pulsing strobe throwing jagged shadows across the walls. Cameras hung from the ceiling, their red status lights dark. Mei’s jamming was still holding, but for how long?

Kai eased the door open an inch to study the layout. The guards exchanged clipped words as one tapped at a flickering monitor. The warning lights flashed steadily, but the camera feeds remained dead.

“We have to go around,” Liang whispered. “Too exposed here.”

Kai shook his head. “No time.”

He moved first, slipping through the door as the lighting pulsed. Using the strobing shadows as cover, he closed the distance. The first guard spotted him too late—Kai’s pistol barked twice, the rounds hitting low, center mass. The guard stumbled backward, blood staining his uniform, and crumpled to the floor.

The second guard turned, his sidearm halfway out of its holster, but Liang stepped in, firing four rapid shots into his chest and neck. The man collapsed instantly, his blood pooling on the concrete. Liang fired one more time into his head, ensuring he was down for good.

Kai checked the console, scanning the monitors. Most were dead, but one flickered to life, showing the detention cells ahead. A guard paced in front of one of the doors, his pistol holstered at his side.

“There,” Kai hissed, pointing at the monitor. “That’s her.”

Liang peered around the edge of the station. “Looks like the rest of them pulled back. We need to hurry before they double back.”

Kai nodded. “Let’s go.”

They moved quickly down the corridor, the strobing crimson light casting eerie shadows as they closed in on Ying’s cell. Dust drifted from the ceiling as another explosion rattled the building, but Kai didn’t stop. They were almost there.

“There!” Liang pointed. About halfway down the hall, a single guard stood blocking a cell. “Must be hers.” The rest of the guards had apparently been pulled away by the chaos outside. No backup to worry about, but they’d have to move fast before anyone circled back to check on him.

The key card beeped green, and the pair slipped silently into the hallway, closing the distance before the guard turned. Ten feet away, the guard’s head snapped toward them, eyes narrowing in confusion before widening in recognition.

Kai didn’t wait—he raised his pistol and fired.

Click.

The small pistol jammed. Kai barely registered the failure before the guard reacted, snapping his rifle up. The first shot missed, the muzzle flash blinding in the dim hallway. Kai lunged forward, grabbing the barrel with both hands as they slammed against the wall. His fingers locked on the rifle barrel, knuckles white as the guard forced the muzzle down inches from Kai’s chest. Kai gritted his teeth, kept one hand death-gripping the rifle, and reached for the paring knife strapped horizontally to his belt. The blade was cheap, the kind you’d find in any market, but it was lethal for close-range work. He struck low first, driving the knife into the guard’s side in rapid succession; then, as the guard dropped his arm to block his blows, Kai stuck higher, aiming for the neck. The stabs were quick and brutal—sewing machine strikes born of desperation.

The guard stumbled back, blood pouring from multiple stab wounds, but he wasn’t finished. He sagged against the wall, eyes glassy with shock but still alive.

Liang’s .22 coughed once. The single shot hit clean in the forehead. The guard’s head snapped back, and he slid down the wall, leaving a dark smear of blood as he collapsed onto the cold concrete floor.

Kai sheathed the knife, his breath coming hard and fast. Liang muttered, “That was messy.”

“Just move,” Kai growled, handing the rifle to Liang and grabbing the guard’s keys to open the cell door.

Ying was on her feet the instant the door swung open, throwing herself into Kai’s arms. “Thank god… thank god…” she sobbed into his bloody jacket.

“I know,” Kai managed, his heart still racing. “But we have to move. Now.”

As they made their way down the hallway, the sharp crack of gunfire erupted behind them. Guards were closing in. The team rushed down the stairs, almost to the utility tunnel, when Ying stumbled.

“Hit,” she gasped, clutching her side.

Kai ripped off his crimson scarf, pressing it hard against the wound as blood soaked through the fabric. “Keep moving,” he ordered his voice tight with urgency.

Liang fired bursts down the hallway, forcing the pursuing guards to take cover.

“Move!” he yelled, covering their retreat as Kai half-carried Ying down the stairs, her steps faltering with each passing moment. They descended into the darkness, the same route that had brought them in now their lifeline out.

When they emerged, the yard was clear; all the drones must have been drawn to the chaos still happening on the compound's south side. They moved fast through the shadows, Ying barely able to walk. Outside the gate, they didn't bother with counter-surveillance measures; they just grabbed Ying under each arm and made straight for the extraction point.

The van’s engine was already running when they reached the alley. Mei flashed the headlights twice—a signal that she was ready to move.

“Everybody in?” she called back as they scrambled inside.

“Clear!” Liang shouted, slamming the rear doors after helping Kai and Ying inside. “Let’s go!”

“She’s hit bad!” Liang moved toward the front. “We need a medic, fast!”

Kai pressed harder on the scarf, his hands slick with Ying’s blood. Her breathing was shallow, her face pale in the dim light of the van. He could feel her life slipping away beneath his fingers, no matter how tightly he held on. Her hand gripped his arm weakly, her eyes searching his. Her lips moved, but he couldn’t hear her over the pounding of his own heart.

“Shhhh,” he murmured, his voice breaking. “It’s okay…”

Her fingers tightened on his arm for a fleeting moment, then went limp.

“Save your strength,” he whispered, but her eyes had already gone lifeless, her shallow breaths now silent.

Liang glanced back. “East side safe house—fifteen minutes.”

Kai exhaled shakily. “She’s gone.” His words were quiet, almost swallowed by the hum of the tires against the wet pavement.

Mei said nothing, her grip tightening on the wheel as she guided them through the dark streets. Behind them, the night erupted with more explosions—far more than their diversion team had planned. Flashes lit the sky, silhouetting the compound in a series of fiery bursts.

“Not ours,” Mei muttered under her breath. Whatever was happening tonight, it wasn’t just about their rescue attempt.

In Kai’s hands, the blood-soaked scarf felt heavier than ever—a symbol of defiance turned to sacrifice in this unending war.

The Crimson Moon Chronicles are purely a work of fiction. Any resemblance to actual people, organizations, or operations is purely coincidental. The story follows a fictional resistance organization operating under occupation, showcasing various tactics and techniques inspired by current resistance, irregular, and unconventional warfare theories and concepts. Written in the style of short, serialized action fiction, it pays homage to the 1930s and 1940s pulp classics popular in the U.S., such as Doc Savage and The Shadow.

About the author

CW5 Maurice “Duc” DuClos currently serves as a Guest Lecturer at the Naval Post Graduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. His professional background includes various positions at the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) Joint Special Operations University (JSOU), the U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School (USAJFKSWCS), and 1st Special Forces Group (Airborne).

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of the United States Special Operations Command, Joint Special Operations University, Naval Post Graduate School, or the Irregular Warfare Center.

26. Steel, Sweat, and Silicon: Defense Dominance in the Age of Artificial General Intelligence

Excerpts:

Countries that believe they can rely on AI to solve all their problems overnight will be caught off guard when their conceptual designs remain stuck in digital limbo. Meanwhile, those that master rapid prototyping, industrial retooling, and the systematic gathering of real-world context will be positioned to ride the exponential wave of AI progress rather than be engulfed by it.

In the end, the defense community that keeps pace with AI’s intellectual leaps while remaining deeply anchored in fundamental science and physical production will hold a decisive edge. Nothing about superior AI negates the need for steel, sweat, and data. The cycle endures, and the winners will be those who learn to close the loop faster than anyone else.

While the White House and companies like OpenAI and Anthropic work to build the best AI in the world, the Department of Defense should skate to where the puck is going. The time is now to build the infrastructure that will be the limiting factor in an age of unconstrained and abundant intelligence.

Steel, Sweat, and Silicon: Defense Dominance in the Age of Artificial General Intelligence - Modern War Institute

mwi.westpoint.edu · by Sean Lavelle · January 31, 2025

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When will artificial intelligence surpass the cognitive capabilities of humans? The exact timeline for achieving this milestone—known as artificial general intelligence (AGI)—remains uncertain, yet recent advances indicate that transformative leaps may be rapidly approaching—clearly with significant defense implications. In a 2022 survey of artificial intelligence experts, 20 percent believed that human-level AI would be developed by 2032. Major leaders in the space are now talking about its creation within two or three years. One of the most evocative descriptions of what this capability could look like is “a nation of geniuses in a data center.” These geniuses would be able to do anything a human can do today with a laptop and internet connection.

If these timelines are at all reasonable, ensuring the US military is AGI ready is of paramount importance. With AGI, the tempo of military innovation could shift from decades to mere weeks, upending the established processes for fielding new capabilities. Tremendous national effort is going toward making sure America has the best AI in the world. Placing too much faith in always having the best AI carries serious risks, though, especially when computing resources and open-source breakthroughs are global and diffuse quickly. A Chinese-built model, Deepseek R1, recently drove home the point that the race for AGI can turn on a dime. Deepseek R1 uses a reasoning technique recently pioneered by OpenAI, yet comes close to matching the performance of OpenAI’s flagship model, o1. While semiconductor export controls heavily handicap the race in America’s favor, rapid algorithmic improvements could change the landscape overnight.

A wiser approach would combine the pursuit of advanced AI with the removal of bottlenecks that might hinder its real-world impact. Defense technologies typically follow a well-worn cycle: battlefield observations spur ideas, fundamental research proves underlying science, engineers design and prototype systems, rigorous testing confirms performance, and then factories scale up production for wide deployment. Today, finely honed human intelligence is the hardest to find input in every step of this process, but it might not be in a world with AGI.

That which is scarce is valuable. Once AGI is achieved and intelligence becomes relatively abundant, physical labs, manufacturing lines, test ranges, and global networks for collecting combat data will form the indispensable bridges between a clever concept and a fielded capability. A fully realized AGI could draft elaborate plans and run simulations at lightning speed, yet it will not be able to assemble physical components or measure real-world conditions by itself. Nations that invest in robust infrastructure, flexible industrial capacity, and reliable feedback mechanisms will be best prepared to capitalize on AGI’s promises, while those that do not may find themselves unable to keep pace when intelligence alone is no longer a meaningful limiter.

Moravec’s Paradox and Physical Production

Moravec’s paradox highlights why physical tasks remain the real bottleneck, even under an AI revolution. While AI can win sophisticated games and write complex code, it struggles maneuvering in the real world. In the defense sector, this could become painfully clear when a brilliant new aircraft or missile design leaps from an AI’s mind onto a screen, but then faces a slow and expensive manufacturing process. Reconfiguring assembly lines, sourcing raw materials, and hiring skilled tradespeople are not trivial endeavors, and general-purpose robots are still clumsy at many of the tasks required to build high-grade military hardware.

If AGI is ubiquitous, the difference between victory and defeat may hinge on who can bring digital insights to life the fastest. Militaries that assume AI alone will solve every problem risk being underprepared for the physical realities of technology development. Investing in flexible manufacturing plants today that are capable of switching rapidly from one design to another is imperative.

Industry can be incentivized to build this capacity by contracting consistent production of significant quantities of short-lifespan weapons and platforms. Building cheaper equipment that does not last as long works better in a world where technology advances quickly. Program offices can reallocate resources from sustainment and maintenance activities toward production, which will result in more up-to-date capability and greater capacity to rapidly grow a force.

Even if current autonomy algorithms for unmanned systems remain imperfect, building out capacity to produce them now ensures that hardware will be ready the moment software catches up. A defense force with a mature pipeline of aerial drones, robotic ground vehicles, and unmanned naval platforms is poised to integrate sudden AGI-driven design leaps far more quickly than one starting from scratch.

America should also emphasize manufacturing research and development efforts as a critical national security priority. Research into advanced robotics, 3D printing, and other cutting-edge production methods can compress the cycle time between concept and fielded system. With AI’s ability to spin out new designs at lightning speed, hardware must keep pace. Otherwise, the most brilliant concept remains stuck in a rendering on someone’s screen, waiting for a factory line that can finally bring it to life.

Fundamental Science and Physical Data

After a new idea emerges in response to battlefield observations, the next immediate hurdle is often fundamental science. Even an AGI that claims near omniscience relies on physical data to undergird and refine its predictions. AI might propose a revolutionary material or propulsion system, but actual labs must synthesize and test it in real-world conditions. Without empirical measurements, the most skillful reasoning models will be untethered from reality, having no basis from which to reason.

Once materials are synthesized and science confirmed, at the other end of the acquisitions cycle the military testing community must take initial prototypes and put them through their paces to confirm they work as intended. Without sufficient testing capacity, the speed at which America can develop capability has an inherent limit.

This need for physical validation makes research labs and testing infrastructure indispensable. AI can accelerate ideas, but only wind tunnels, test ranges, and high-temperature chambers can confirm which ones truly work. Investing in these environments ensures discoveries sparked by AI are refined and validated quickly.

Nations that neglect physical testing capacity risk lagging precisely when AI speeds up conceptual research. Defense planners should invest in expanding physical test beds and research labs as quickly as possible.

Warfighting Context and Real-World Decision-Making

During World War II, the P-51 Mustang’s ultimate success depended on early frontline feedback about initially poor range and altitude performance. Pilots reported real-world deficiencies, and engineers responded by installing the Merlin engine, dramatically altering the air war. In the future, iterative feedback will become even more critical. War is a moving target: enemy tactics change, meaning AI-driven designs must adapt quickly.

Advanced AI is useless if it cannot receive timely updates from the field, because it will be building solutions to the wrong problems. This is why robust connectivity—through low earth orbit constellations like Starlink—should be a top investment priority. Without high-bandwidth network infrastructure, real-time sensor readings and mission logs never reach data centers for analysis. This deficit will reduce even the smartest AI to guesswork.

An AI without modern networking is like a brilliant but blind strategist, stuck refining solutions based on outdated assumptions. By contrast, militaries that equip forces with high-bandwidth satellite communications will be able to feed AGI the fuel it needs to think. If America waits until AGI is here to start proliferating this architecture, there will be a critical period of time where a competitor that does make those investments has a key advantage.

The United States should embark on an effort to connect all its military platforms with low earth orbit constellations that can move data around the planet quickly. It should be possible to take every bit of data collected from a two-hour flight, twelve-hour infantry patrol, or two-week submarine mission, anywhere in the world, and transmit it to a data center in America in seconds. Any part of the force that lacks this capability will not benefit directly from AGI.

If AGI is like a nation of geniuses in a data center, the real question is: Can we build the bridges to bring their ideas to life? The capability development cycle—observations, ideas, fundamental science, engineering design, testing, manufacturing, and field deployment—will not vanish with the advent of AGI. Instead, it will accelerate. AGI will be able to drive concept creation and streamline engineering tasks at an unimaginable pace, but everything else will still require tangible infrastructure and physical effort.

Countries that believe they can rely on AI to solve all their problems overnight will be caught off guard when their conceptual designs remain stuck in digital limbo. Meanwhile, those that master rapid prototyping, industrial retooling, and the systematic gathering of real-world context will be positioned to ride the exponential wave of AI progress rather than be engulfed by it.

In the end, the defense community that keeps pace with AI’s intellectual leaps while remaining deeply anchored in fundamental science and physical production will hold a decisive edge. Nothing about superior AI negates the need for steel, sweat, and data. The cycle endures, and the winners will be those who learn to close the loop faster than anyone else.

While the White House and companies like OpenAI and Anthropic work to build the best AI in the world, the Department of Defense should skate to where the puck is going. The time is now to build the infrastructure that will be the limiting factor in an age of unconstrained and abundant intelligence.

Sean Lavelle is a Navy aerospace engineering duty officer with master’s degrees in finance and machine learning from Johns Hopkins and Georgia Tech. He is the founder of the first all active-duty software development team in the Navy and has built and deployed more than sixty software applications to units across the Navy. He has previously been published in War on the Rocks, USNI Proceedings, the Strategy Bridge, RealClearDefense, RealClearWorld, the National Interest, and the Defense Acquisitions Research Journal.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.

Image credit: Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Evan Diaz, US Navy

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mwi.westpoint.edu · by Sean Lavelle · January 31, 2025

27. A Prisoner of War’s Old Fashioned

The ingenuity of soldiers can be demonstrated in so many ways.

A Prisoner of War’s Old Fashioned - War on the Rocks

Zach Griffiths and Rick Landgraf

warontherocks.com · by Zach Griffiths · January 31, 2025

For some people, the new year brings a resolution to refrain from drinking — if only for a month. In 2013, a British charity launched the “Dry January” campaign to raise awareness of the health and lifestyle benefits of giving up drinking temporarily. Over 200,000 people signed up to participate in the challenge in 2024.

Given that January has come to an end, it is perhaps fitting to offer a historical account about war and mixology. Indeed, after a month without alcohol, some may be wanting to imbibe. There is no doubt that Maj. Gen. Edward P. King, Jr. — a U.S. Army commander who surrendered to the Japanese Army on the Bataan peninsula in the Philippines in May 1942 and subsequently spent over three years as a prisoner of war — was in search of a good drink.

Life was hard for the allied prisoners of war at the Japanese-run Karenko camp in present-day Taiwan. The Japanese typically treated captured senior officers harshly, “but still better than what the lower-ranking prisoners experienced.” Firsthand accounts describe the captives being “tweaked on the nose, pinched on the hand, slapped in the face, punched and knocked down, and sometimes rather badly beaten — all for various trifling offenses.” Medical treatment was also poor. While allied doctors were allowed to treat patients, a Japanese medical corporal decided whether a treatment was necessary and how long a patient would remain in the hospital. Patients even had to “furnish their own bandages.”

Hunger exacerbated the grim conditions. Prisoners at Karenko lost weight and died regularly. One prisoner, U.S. Army Col. Roscoe Bonham, recorded a “weight statistics” log of a group of fellow captives in his personal notebook. The log showed that 17 prisoners lost an average of 28 pounds over a period of less than two years. Two of the 17 sadly perished while in captivity. Their rations varied from “rice and salt for breakfast, lunch, and supper” on May 23, 1942, to “Thanksgiving dinner – 29 rabbits for 316 men” on Nov. 26, 1942. As things got worse, many prisoners would “go out early in the morning hunting snails, which we cooked and ate. They were vile but contained little nourishment.” Sickness and weight loss were constant companions in Karenko.

Life for allied prisoners at Karenko was also dry. They had no access to alcohol, which one captive wryly concluded “solved the problem of [excessive] drinkers.” In an interview after the war, the future chief of staff of the Army, Gen. Harold Johnson, credited the post-war longevity of Lt. Gen. John Wainwright, a notorious boozer, to the forced sobriety: “I think it extended his life,” Johnson assumed. Hunger and thirst surely caused the prisoners to think frequently about food — and drink.

And so it was unsurprising to find recipe books in King’s files. After being forced to surrender his command, the Japanese transported King through several prison camps while his men endured the infamous Bataan Death March, ending up in Camp Karenko.

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Prisoner-of-War Recipes

Recipe books like King’s are a common response to hunger while in captivity. Swapping recipes helped prisoners retain hope and provided respite from the dismal conditions. Well-known cookbooks by World War II prisoners include the aptly named Prisoners of War Cook Book by Ethel Mulvany, a Canadian social worker held in Japanese-occupied Singapore, and Col. H.C. Fowler’s Recipes out of Bilibid, which includes a “Maple Cocktail” that resembles a maple-syrup-flavored Old Fashioned. Unlike those offerings, however, King’s recipes were apparently never published.

King transcribed perhaps hundreds of recipes from many contributors into three notebooks that the U.S. Army Heritage and Education Center has made available online to the public. The contributions were wide-ranging and reflected the varied tastes and backgrounds of those being held in captivity. Englishman Sgt. Brown offered a “Christmas Pudding” and a “Toad in a Hole,” while his compatriot Sgt. Major Pitch from the north of England contributed “Yorkshire Pudding.” Col. Stickney’s instructions on butchering deer remain valid today, while other contributors such as the American Sgt. Drew made dozens of entries. King’s book also contained recipes for a few cocktails.

Of all these, the one that stands out is the offering an imprisoned Gen. King scribbled for an Old Fashioned. At first impression, it appears unfamiliar to those who are well-acquainted with this drink. It is a deep cut — perhaps his personal concoction — that doesn’t seem to have made his cookbook. But it is in King’s handwriting and doesn’t list another contributor’s name, which suggests it is his own. Regardless of who concocted it, it is a delightful record of how to stir some civilization into a Formosan prisoner of war camp.

Old Fashioned Cocktail à la Army

The Old Fashioned is a simple and classic cocktail usually made by muddling sugar with a few dashes of aromatic bitters and water, adding a double shot of traditional bourbon or rye, and garnished with an orange slice (or zest). Some may find it permissible to also add a maraschino cherry, though others would find this conduct disgraceful — a cherry is meant to adorn a Manhattan. Nonetheless, developed in the 1880s, the Old Fashioned remains one of the most popular cocktails in the world today.

King’s version is decidedly more lemon-forward and sweeter than the classic formula. It begins with the laborious rubbing of a single sugar cube against the rind of a ripe lemon. Muddling the lemon-oil-infused cube with another two sugar cubes makes it much sweeter than a typical Old Fashioned, while the oiled cube and small strip of lemon rind exudes a subtle, lovely lemon flavor. Zach Griffiths’ mother courageously sampled King’s take on the classic. She’s never particularly liked Old Fashioneds — preferring the French 75 — but loved this one.

As King recommends, the cocktail should be made with full-strength whiskey. While he advises using Canadian Club, one might have difficulty finding it in other than the 80-proof variety. Following King’s instructions for drinking it quickly to avoid “massive dilution” may leave some wanting something punchier. Stronger whiskey would unquestionably do this cocktail right.

His recipe is easy to follow, so give it a try tonight if you are seeking a memorable way to toast the end of “Dry January.”

COMPONENTS:

a. Lemons – Get lemons with only oily skin. These can be identified by seeing that the skins are thick (or fairly so), bright-colored, and shiny. It is impossible to make the cocktail from lemons with dull, dried skins.

b. Sugar – Get small cubes of sugar, about a half inch on each edge. The domino-shaped lumps will not do — their surfaces are too uneven. In the United States, I used to get Domino Brand lumps called “Dots”; in the Philippines, a size called “Cooktail.”

c. Whiskey – The cocktail may be made of either Rye or Bourbon. Rye makes a smoother drink but many prefer bourbon. One hundred (or higher) proof whiskey is desirable but Canadian Club is excellent.

d. Bitters – Both Angostura and Orange Bitters must be provided and carefully measured by drops. I find it convenient to get from a drug store two small bottles — one for each sort of bitters — with droppers made in the stoppers.

e. Ice – Use refrigerator ice cubes or cracked ice of approximately the same size. If smaller cracked ice or crushed ice is used, the cocktail will chill more quickly but will have to be drunk too rapidly to avoid massive dilution.

f. Garnish – The garnishing of the cocktail is “eye-wash” only — it does not improve the drink. Into each cocktail put one maraschino or cocktail cherry and one half-slice of orange (unpeeled) or a piece of other suitable fruit (a plug of fresh pineapple is excellent).

2. PROCEDURE:

a. Sugar – Three small lumps of sugar are required for each cocktail, prepared as follows:

First Lump – Take one of the selected lemons and rub each surface of the lump of sugar on the lemon skin until the entire lump is saturated with the oil of the lemon skin. As soon as the saturation point is reached, the lump will crumble in your fingers and be lost. The process is laborious and your first effort may be discouraging. However, as soon as you have prepared one or two lumps you will find you have the knack of it and that the process is not too laborious. Care must be taken to avoid breaking through the lemon skin. The sugar must not be permitted to take up any of the juice of the lemons.
Second Lump – Drop four drops (no more) of Angostura Bitters on the second lump of sugar, which will immediately absorb them.
Third Lump – Drop six drops of Orange Bitters on the third lump of sugar.

b. Lemons – From a lemon that has not had sugar rubbed on it, cut, for each cocktail, a thin piece of the outer peel about an inch long and a half-inch wide. These strips of peel should be very thin and have none of the white inner rind left on them.

c. Mixing – Put one tablespoon full of water in the bottom of an Old Fashioned cocktail glass. Into this drop the three lumps of prepared sugar (first, second, and third lumps) and one of the strips of lemon peel. Grind and stir with a muddler until the sugar is completely dissolved in the water. Pour into the glass one large and one small jigger of whiskey (about two to two-and-a-half ounces). Stir well. Put in enough ice to bring the liquid to about a half inch from the top of the glass. Add the garnishment. The cocktail is ready to serve.

QUANTITY PREPARATION:

For cocktail parties, where many cocktails must be served in a short space of time, it is convenient to prepare them by the quart in advance. Muddle and dissolve 17 first lumps, 17 second lumps, and 17 third lumps in 7 full tablespoon [sic] full of water. To this add one quart of whiskey and stir well. If securely covered, these prepared cocktails will keep indefinitely, or at least as long as a month. In serving the prepared cocktails, use two large jiggers for each drink.

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Zachary Griffiths is an Army officer who directs the Harding Project to renew professional military writing.

Rick Landgraf is the commentary editor at War on the Rocks.

Commentary

warontherocks.com · by Zach Griffiths · January 31, 2025

28. Norway’s government collapses over EU energy dispute

I thought this was a scene out of Netflix's Norwegian series called "Occupied" which is a story about a new energy source and Russian occupation of Norway by subversion - political warfare on the highest order.

Norway’s government collapses over EU energy dispute

https://www.ft.com/content/c03f53e4-c373-413f-8211-85f52f12468b

www.ft.com

Eurosceptic junior coalition partner quits after PM’s push to implement energy directives from Brussels

Centre party leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum: ‘We must not give away more power to the EU’ © Line Ornes Sondergaard/ Bloomberg

Richard Milne in Oslo

Thursday January 30, 2025

7 HOURS AGO

A dispute over EU energy policies has led to the collapse of Norway’s coalition government, just as US President Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs and take over Greenland were set to reignite a debate on Oslo joining the bloc.

Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s push to implement three EU energy directives led to the abrupt departure of his party’s Eurosceptic partner, the pro-farmer Centre party, on Thursday. The collapse of the coalition leaves the premier’s Labour party to govern alone until elections later this year.

“We must not give away more power to the EU,” said Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, leader of the Centre party and Norway’s finance minister.

Both coalition parties in recent weeks vowed to oppose the renewal of Norway’s electricity interconnectors with Denmark, sparking concern across Europe over the perceived energy nationalism.

Norway, one of Europe’s richest countries thanks to its abundant oil and gas reserves as well as plentiful hydropower, is not part of the EU but adopts most of the bloc’s laws due to its membership in the European Economic Area. The three directives at issue concern renewable energy, energy efficiency and the energy performance of buildings.

Friction between Oslo and Brussels has risen in recent years, with many EU countries believing Norway needed to be more generous with its hydropower and not threaten to stop exporting power via interconnectors to Denmark, the UK and Germany.

“We are not happy with Norway. The sentiment is as bad as I have known it. Norway looks selfish, trying to keep this electricity for itself even as it makes so much money from selling gas to us,” said one EU ambassador in Oslo recently.

The situation is complicated by the return of Trump as US president. Some senior figures in Støre’s Labour party believe that Norway needs to strengthen its ties to the EU to avoid being isolated if the US places tariffs on Europe.

Støre said on Thursday his government had no plans to implement the other five parts of the EU’s clean energy package, which relate to the electricity market, keeping Oslo on a possible collision course with Brussels. The European Commission has given Norway until May to implement the package.

Others have been unnerved by Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland from Denmark, believing it could have consequences for the Norwegian Arctic island of Svalbard, where Russia has its own settlement.

Norway rejected EU membership in an EU referendum in 1994, leaving it only in the EEA, a position that some in Oslo have derided as having to take the rules of the bloc without having any say in them. Opinion polls suggest a majority of Norwegians are still against membership.

“It would take a real shock, maybe something from Trump, to restart the EU debate here,” said one senior Labour party figure on the 30th anniversary of the referendum in November last year.

Parliamentary elections in Norway are fixed in date, meaning it is likely the Labour party will try to continue as a single-party minority government until September 8. Some experts said that, paradoxically, this could make the government stronger as it could appeal to parties across the political spectrum to pass measures, including the EU directives.

29. Hada Rushed to Hospital for Urgent Care as Nobel Peace Prize Nomination Confirmed

More evil from the Cinese security services.

Hada Rushed to Hospital for Urgent Care as Nobel Peace Prize Nomination Confirmed

https://smhric.org/news_751.htm

SMHRIC

January 30, 2025

New York

On January 25, 2025, prominent Southern Mongolian political prisoner Mr. Hada was rushed to a hospital in the regional capital Hohhot by Chinese State Security personnel assigned to monitor him. The urgent medical intervention came shortly after Hada’s nomination for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize by four Japanese parliament members was confirmed. According to his wife, Xinna, Hada remains in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at the Affiliated Hospital of the Inner Mongolia Medical University.

Photos and video footage obtained by the Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Center (SMHRIC) from Xinna show Hada receiving critical care, lying on an ICU bed with an oxygen mask. One image reveals severe bruising on his left leg, marked by dark purple and black spots.

“On January 25, State Security officials made multiple urgent calls to my son, Uiles, informing him that Hada was in critical condition but refusing to clarify the cause,” Xinna told SMHRIC in a phone interview. “We rushed to the hospital and found him on an ICU bed, barely conscious.”

Xinna further disclosed that State Security officials informed her and Uiles that Hada’s condition was life-threatening due to alleged multiple organ failure, and there was no guarantee of survival. Although a critical condition notice was issued by the hospital, State Security personnel refused to share the document with his family.

“Since our first visit to the ICU, we have not been allowed to see Hada again,” Xinna said. “On January 28, the hospital contacted Uiles, stating that Hada’s condition was improving but that he remained under intensive care.”

Hada has been confined to an apartment controlled by the State Security Bureau since completing a 15-year prison sentence in 2010, followed by four years of extrajudicial detention. As of 2025, Hada has spent 30 years deprived of freedom. According to Xinna, his health has deteriorated significantly due to the harsh conditions of his detention and house arrest, which were reportedly worse than his initial 15 years imprisonment.

“What’s even more egregious is that the State Security personnel had the audacity to ask whether we, as family members, could pay for the urgent care needed to save Hada’s life,” Xinna added. “I told them that since he has been in their custody for years, it is their responsibility to provide his medical care and save his life.”

Mr. Hada, born in 1955, is a distinguished political activist and the President of the Southern Mongolian Democratic Alliance (SMDA), an underground organization banned by the Chinese government as a “national separatist group”. A lifelong advocate for the human rights and self-determination of Southern Mongolia, often referred to as “Inner Mongolia” in China, he has tirelessly fought against the systemic marginalization, cultural suppression, and human rights abuses faced by the region’s six million Mongolian residents.

In 1992, Hada co-founded the SMDA to advance the political, cultural, and economic rights of the Mongolian people as guaranteed under China’s Constitution. The organization has focused on peaceful advocacy, including protecting the Mongolian language, preserving cultural heritage, and defending political and human rights against Chinese settler colonialism.

In 1995, he was arrested on charges of “separatism” and “espionage” and sentenced to 15 years in prison. International human rights organizations widely condemned his imprisonment as unjust and politically motivated. Amnesty International recognized Hada as a “prisoner of conscience” and advocated for his release tirelessly. After completing his sentence in 2010, Hada was immediately subjected to four additional years of detention without trial, followed by 11 years of strict house arrest in a secret facility under constant surveillance.

Despite enduring three decades of severe hardships, Hada has remained steadfast in his peaceful resistance. Dubbed the “Nelson Mandela of Southern Mongolia,” he is celebrated for his unwavering dedication to human rights and freedom for his people. His work highlights the broader struggles faced by Southern Mongolians, including the erosion of their language, displacement from ancestral lands, and violations of cultural and political rights.

Hada’s lifelong dedication to freedom, human rights and national self-determination has garnered international recognition, culminating in his recent nomination for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize by Japanese lawmakers. He remains a symbol of resilience, courage, and hope for the people of Southern Mongolia and an inspiration to human rights defenders around the world.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Center (SMHRIC)

30. China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 30, 2025

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 30, 2025

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-january-30-2025

Taiwan indicted retired Lieutenant General Kao An-kuo and five others for organizing an armed group in collaboration with the CCP to aid the PLA in the event of an invasion against Taiwan. Kao is Taiwan's highest-ranked former military officer to be accused of espionage. The Taiwan High Prosecutors Office indicted retired Army Lieutenant General Kao An-kuo and five others for violating Articles Two and Seven of the National Security Act. The Ministry of National Defense’s Political Warfare Bureau initially reported the group’s activities in 2022. Kao allegedly formed and led the pro-unification group "Republic of China Taiwan Military Government” in 2018 in order to establish armed units and operational bases in Taiwan to assist the PLA in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. The group allegedly also received funding from the CCP amounting to NT$9.62 million (over a quarter million USD) and met with CCP intelligence officers in the PRC as cross-strait “exchanges.” China Unification Promotion Party (CUPP) President Chang An-lo notably assisted the group’s travel between the PRC and Taiwan. The Ministry of the Interior is currently trying to forcibly disband the CUPP for interfering in Taiwanese politics on behalf of the CCP.

Kao and his group allegedly attempted to recruit active-duty military personnel to gather classified information and surveil strategic deployments. They also allegedly used drones to practice surveillance operations on mobile military radar vehicles and over combat exercises. Kao’s indicted co-conspirators included his girlfriend Liu Yi-chen, Taiwan military spokesman Hou Shao-kang, retired Army Command Logistics Department Major Chang Sheng-hao, retired Army Lieutenant Chiu Rong-hung, and an individual named Chen Jing-huai. A spokesperson from the Ministry of National Defense said that no active-duty personnel are involved in the case and there have not been significant leakages of national defense information. Kao had previously attended a forum in Xiamen, PRC, in 2014 with other retired generals to call on the Taiwanese army to not prevent the PLA from attacking Taiwan, and he also published a highly controversial YouTube video calling for the military to overthrow the DPP-led government in 2021. Taiwan's National Security Bureau report on January 12 highlighted that PRC intelligence operatives have actively attempted to recruit retired and active-duty military officers, as noted in previous ISW coverage, and that two-thirds of spies had a ROC military affiliation. This particular case differs from typical espionage cases in that Kao is the highest-ranked former military official charged with espionage in Taiwanese history, and he was allegedly actively organizing and training armed collaborators on behalf of the CCP.

Key Takeaways

New restrictions on Taiwan’s Constitutional Court procedures went into effect without a constitutional review after President William Lai Ching-te signed them into law. The amendments will paralyze the court’s ability to review laws until the Legislative Yuan (LY) approves new judicial nominees to fill vacant seats.

Constituents and political organizers in Taiwan have begun recall campaigns for 35 KMT legislators and 4 DPP legislators amid rising discord within the LY. Mass recalls of KMT legislators are unlikely to give the DPP control of the LY but could increase partisan infighting and anti-DPP sentiment in the opposition.

Taiwan indicted retired Lieutenant General Kao An-kuo and five others for organizing an armed group in collaboration with the CCP to aid the PLA in the event of an invasion against Taiwan. Kao is Taiwan's highest-ranked former military officer to be accused of espionage.

The Chinese Coast Guard and Philippines Coast Guard continued their standoff in the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone for the 4th week as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) “allowed” a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal and prevented Philippines fisheries bureau vessels from collecting sand samples at Sandy Cay for scientific research.

Anonymous security officials from two Western countries said that two Iranian-flagged cargo vessels will deliver over 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate, a key ingredient in missile propellant, from the PRC to Iran in the next few weeks.

31. Can a Critic of the Deep State Run the Deep State?

Excerpt from Mr. Lake's bio:

And while this populist moment feels unprecedented, Eli Lake, host of our new show “Breaking History,” says it’s not—the rebuke of the ruling class is encoded in our nation’s DNA.

Can a Critic of the Deep State Run the Deep State?

Tulsi Gabbard has praised Edward Snowden, the most notorious intelligence leaker in U.S. history. Will the Senate confirm her to oversee 18 spy agencies?

By Eli Lake

01.31.25 — U.S. Politics

https://www.thefp.com/p/deep-state-critic-tulsi-gabbard-confirmation-hearing-edward-snowden?utm

President Donald Trump’s pick to be the next director of national intelligence is in trouble. In the hours-long public session of her confirmation hearing before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Thursday, Tulsi Gabbard could not bring herself to agree with senators from both parties that the notorious leaker, Edward Snowden, betrayed his country.

Before the hearing, Gabbard had won the support of the committee’s chairman, Senator Tom Cotton, and most Senate Republicans. But as the hearing dragged on, senators grew visibly uneasy. The usually mild-mannered Senator Michael Bennet, a Democrat from Colorado, raised his voice in frustration at Gabbard’s equivocations about Snowden.

“This is not a moment for social media. It’s not a moment to propagate conspiracy theories,” he said. “This is when you need to answer the questions of the people whose votes you’re asking for to be confirmed as the chief intelligence officer of this nation.”

Oklahoma Republican James Lankford asked: “Was he a traitor at the time when he took America’s secrets, released them in public, and then ran to China and became a Russian citizen?” Gabbard declined to answer him directly and said only that Snowden “broke the law” and that she is “focused on the future.”

This may sound like much ado over ancient history—to mix a metaphor. But to many intelligence pros, there’s no forgetting—or forgiving—how Snowden allegedly used his security clearances to gather digital secrets from the National Security Agency, where he worked as a contractor, and gave them to the press way back in 2013. The leaks detailed some of the U.S. government’s most sensitive surveillance methods, including its infiltration of popular web platforms, and according to both Congressional and intelligence community investigations, did grave damage to U.S. national security.

Gabbard’s past praise for Snowden—“a brave whistleblower,” she called him in 2019—who has since taken asylum in Vladimir Putin’s Russia, marks her as not just a critic of the U.S. intelligence community but a radical one. In 2020 she even publicly urged Trump to pardon Snowden, who faces multiple criminal charges under the Espionage Act.

It’s almost as if someone had picked the late atheist writer Christopher Hitchens to be Pope. The closest historical parallel to Gabbard’s nomination might be President Jimmy Carter’s choice of Ted Sorensen, a CIA critic and former speechwriter for President John F. Kennedy, to run the agency in 1977. The Sorensen nomination failed in the face of bipartisan opposition.

What a difference 50 years have made. Back in Carter’s day, it was the Democratic Party that sought to expose America’s national security state. Now it is Trump’s Republican Party that has cooled on this bureaucracy. In the eyes of Trump and his GOP supporters, the intelligence agencies have been warped into a weapon against American citizens.

And it’s true: The FBI ignored its own procedures in pursuit of a flimsy case that Trump’s 2016 campaign had colluded with Russia. Agents misled the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court to obtain a warrant to surveil a former Trump campaign aide, Carter Page. Toward the end of the presidential campaign in 2020, 51 former senior U.S. intelligence officials signed a public letter that implied the laptop abandoned by former president Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, and later passed to the New York Post, was a Russian disinformation operation. In truth, the FBI had already authenticated the laptop. This was the essence of Gabbard’s testimony, her pledge to reform a discredited intelligence community.

The Gabbard nomination fits the broader theme of Trump’s appointments. At the National Institutes of Health, Food and Drug Administration, Department of Health and Human Services, Federal Bureau of Investigation, and now Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), he has picked some of those institutions’ most trenchant critics to run them. The question before the Senate today—as it heard testimony both from Gabbard and from FBI director pick Kash Patel—is how far the critics can go. Can a person who praised Snowden—the most notorious intelligence leaker in U.S. history—oversee 18 spy agencies?

All of which explains why—though other questionable aspects of Gabbard’s past came up—Snowden was by far the hottest topic on Thursday.

When senators of both parties pressed on her past sympathy for him, Gabbard offered a carefully prepared response. “Edward Snowden broke the law,” she said. “I do not agree with or support all of the information and intelligence that he released, nor the way in which he did it.” But Gabbard did herself no favors when she said that Snowden “released information that exposed egregious, illegal, and unconstitutional programs that are happening within our government.”

That is partly true. The first story that broke based on Snowden’s leaks did show U.S. telecom providers were sending all of their customers’ call records (though not phone call contents) to a government database. The authority for this massive transfer of telephone metadata, as it is known, was through a secret surveillance warrant that was initially designed to allow the FBI to spy on individual Americans, not millions of them with a cell phone plan. Making matters worse, when the director of national intelligence at the time, James Clapper, was asked at an open congressional hearing about this very program, he insisted the government was not collecting the metadata.

Other Snowden-related scoops, however, seemed merely to expose the sordid but necessary stuff of intelligence gathering in the real world. For example, one Snowden-based story revealed that the National Security Agency had tapped the personal cell phone of former German chancellor Angela Merkel. It was embarrassing and disruptive to the U.S.-German alliance, but, in the scheme of things, not a scandal.

Snowden’s least justifiable leak was provided to the South China Morning Post for a story that revealed the IP addresses of computers the NSA had hacked in Hong Kong and mainland China. That scoop served only to blind America against its most potent geopolitical foe by alerting Beijing to the computer systems American hackers had compromised.

Gabbard received an enthusiastic endorsement at the outset of her hearing Thursday from Cotton, the Republican chairman of the committee, who seemed won over by assurances that she would reduce bloat at the DNI.

Whether that will be enough to persuade one prominent holdout on the panel, Senator Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine, is less clear. She voted against now–Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week and has not said how she will vote on Gabbard. But since the Republicans have only a single-vote majority on Intelligence, Gabbard’s nomination will not make it out of the committee if Collins votes no and the committee’s Democrats vote against Gabbard as they are expected to do. If that happens, it’s unclear what parliamentary moves could allow a floor vote on her nomination.

At Thursday’s hearing, Collins did not tip her hand. She calmly asked Gabbard if she would support a pardon for Snowden if confirmed. The nominee pledged that if she was confirmed, “I would not take actions to advocate for any actions related to Snowden.”

There has been a long tradition in Congress of legislators who demand transparency from the intelligence agencies. That said, Gabbard, the erstwhile Hawaii representative in the House, would be the first such legislator—or former legislator—to actually run such an agency.

Sorensen withdrew his name from nomination after then–Democratic senator Joe Biden brought up a formerly unknown affidavit Sorensen had provided on behalf of the Edward Snowden of his day—Daniel Ellsberg, the former Pentagon analyst who leaked a secret history of the Vietnam War to The New York Times.

In the late 1970s, the Senate would not entrust power over the intelligence community to one of its critics, even after disclosures of CIA plots to assassinate hostile foreign leaders, and FBI political and psychological warfare against Martin Luther King Jr. had justifiably damaged the reputation of both agencies.

Now, we are about to learn whether the Trump-era Republican Party will empower Gabbard, a woman who, though she has served faithfully in the military, also has praised someone many senators consider a traitor and has trashed the intelligence community his leaks helped expose. In other words, we are about to learn just how big this vibe shift surging through U.S. political institutions really is.

Donald Trump, just sworn in as the 47th president, was reelected to be a wrecking ball to the Beltway elites. And while this populist moment feels unprecedented, Eli Lake, host of our new show “Breaking History,” says it’s not—the rebuke of the ruling class is encoded in our nation’s DNA. Listen to the first episode below or wherever you get your podcasts.

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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As it’s capturing more Ukrainian land, Russia is also tightening its grasp on the occupied territories, according to Olesia. The occupation administration has ramped up surveillance, with increasingly common security checks and more cameras in the streets.

Even the initial advantage that Mavka held — that Russian soldiers would not suspect women to be resistance members — has lost its edge as the occupiers grow more careful, Olesia says.

It is hard enough to fight against overwhelming odds in constant fear. It is harder still when hope is in short supply. In spite of this, the Mavkas fight on.

Talking about what keeps her motivated, Olesia says laconically, "Somebody has to do it. It just happens to be us."

Although layered with melancholy, her messages reveal a sense of purpose and perseverance.

"The power is in the people. Each of us has the power to do something to help this world, from a leaflet to big decisions in the world's seats of power," she says in a message from occupied Ukraine to the free world.

"We are here, and despite everything, we continue to resist because evil must not win. Please fight with us and for us."

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