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USDA’s Food Price Outlook, 2025
inflation slows for food prices, but volatility remains in key categories

The January 2025 Food Price Outlook summarizes recent trends in food prices based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data through December 2024. While food price inflation has slowed overall, key sectors like eggs and beef remain volatile due to supply chain and input cost pressures.

Key Highlights:

• Overall inflation trends: Food prices increased by 2.5% year-over-year as of December 2024, with food-at-home prices rising by 1.8% and food-away-from-home prices increasing by 3.6%.
• 2025 forecasts:
  • Food prices expected to rise by 2.2%, slower than the historical average.
  • Food-at-home prices predicted to grow by 1.3%, while food-away-from-home prices are forecasted to increase by 3.6%.
• Category insights:
  • Egg prices saw a sharp rise of 36.8% year-over-year in December 2024, with 2025 prices projected to climb by 20.3% amid ongoing supply constraints.
  • Beef and veal prices are expected to increase modestly by 1.5% in 2025, following a 4.9% rise in 2024.
  • Pork and fats/oils prices are forecasted to decline in 2025, with decreases of 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively.
  • Fresh fruit prices are anticipated to rise by 0.7%, while dairy product prices are expected to increase by 1.3%.

Producer Price Insights:
The PPI, which tracks wholesale prices, suggests continued volatility in farm-level and wholesale markets, with significant fluctuations predicted for eggs, milk, and fruits due to factors such as extreme weather and disease outbreaks. Farm-level egg prices are expected to see a sharp increase of 45.2% in 2025, with a wide prediction interval reflecting uncertainty.

Overall, while food price growth is expected to moderate compared to recent years, specific categories remain susceptible to sudden price shifts driven by global and domestic factors.