Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“If you haven’t read hundreds of books, you are functionally illiterate, and you will be incompetent, because your personal experiences alone aren’t broad enough to sustain you.”

- Former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis

“If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures that you want to vote for, but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong. If this is too blind for your taste, consult some well-meaning full (there is always one around) and ask his advice. Then vote the other way. This enables you to be a good citizen (if such is your wish) without spending the enormous amount of time on it that truly intelligent exercise of franchise requirements.”

- Robert A. Heinlein - Time Enough For Love 

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

- George Bernard Shaw

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 31 (Putin's War)

2. Secret American Special Operations Mission Rescued A Hostage In Africa This Week

3. U.N. Says China May Have Committed ‘Crimes Against Humanity’ in Xinjiang

4. China rejects UN report on Uyghur rights abuses in Xinjiang

5. History's bookends: Putin reversed many Gorbachev reforms

6. China locks down 21 million in Chengdu in COVID-19 outbreak

7. US war-gamed with Ukraine ahead of counteroffensive and encouraged more limited mission

8. Ukrainian Soldiers Say They Are Advancing in the South, but at a Cost

9. Guerrilla Warfare: Ukraine's Partisans are Taking the War to Russia

10. Taiwan Crisis: Taiwan Shoots Down Unidentified Drone

11. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Is Kindling for World War III

12. A Draft for Russia’s Army? Putin Opts for Domestic Stability Instead.

13. Reported sexual assaults across US military increase by 13%

14. Illia Ponomarenko: Stop whining about the war in Ukraine

15. Ukrainian military launches offensive to retake territory from Russia

16. BRICS president: Russia and India have no need for the U.S. dollar

17. Why Washington should provide ATACMS weapons to Ukraine

18. Faces of Kremlin Propaganda: Margarita Simonyan

19. Russian Anarchists Are Sabotaging Railways To Stop Putin’s War on Ukraine

20. UN inspectors arrive at Ukraine nuclear plant after shelling causes delay

21. Taiwan shoots down drone for first time off Chinese coast

22. How American Lawyers and Accountants Help Fuel the War in Ukraine

23. FDD | Clashes Erupt in Iraq in Response to Sadr’s Resignation

24. Pelosi showing up in Taiwan is not enough

25. China's psychological war for Taiwan

26. Going Viral: Preparing Ground Forces for Combat in the Information Age

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 31 (Putin's War)

Maps/graphics: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-31

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 31

Aug 31, 2022 - Press ISW

understandingwar.org

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 31, 10:45 pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Ukrainians and the West should not fall for Russian information operations portraying the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as having failed almost instantly or that depict Ukraine as a helpless puppet of Western masters for launching it at this time. The Russian Ministry of Defense began conducting an information operation to present Ukraine’s counteroffensive as decisively failed almost as soon as it was announced on August 29.[1] Several prominent military bloggers—even bloggers who have historically been critical of the Kremlin—are promoting this message.[2] Other milbloggers are additionally promoting the narrative that Ukraine’s Western handlers pushed Ukraine to launch the counteroffensive prematurely and/or too late for “political” reasons and because the West expected a counteroffensive.[3] Kremlin media outlets have also centrally amplified allegations of civil-military conflict between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi to bolster the narrative that Zelensky sought to conduct a counteroffensive for inappropriate political reasons whereas Zaluzhnyi assessed Ukrainian forces were not militarily prepared to do so.[4]

Military operations on the scale of this counteroffensive do not succeed or fail in a day or a week. Ukrainian officials have long acknowledged that they do not have the sheer mass of mechanized forces that would have been needed to conduct a blitzkrieg-like drive to destroy the Russian defenses in Kherson Oblast or anywhere. They have instead been setting conditions for months by attacking and disrupting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), Russian command and control, and Russian logistics systems throughout southwestern occupied Ukraine. The timing of the start of the counteroffensive is consistent with the observed degradation of Russian capabilities in western Kherson Oblast balanced against the need to start liberating occupied Ukrainian lands and people as soon as possible. There is no reason to suspect that the timing has been materially influenced by inappropriate considerations or tensions. Counteroffensive operations now underway will very likely unfold over the coming weeks and possibly months as Ukrainian forces take advantage of the conditions they have set to defeat particular sectors of the line they have identified as vulnerable while working to retake their cities and towns without destroying them in the process.

Military forces that must conduct offensive operations without the numerical advantages normally required for success in such operations often rely on misdirections and feints to draw the defender away from the sectors of the line on which breakthrough and exploitation efforts will focus. The art of such feints is two-fold. First, they must be conducted with sufficient force to be believable. Since they are feints, however, rather than deliberate attacks expected to succeed, they often look like failures—the attacking units will fall back when they feel they have persuaded the defender of their seriousness. Second, they take time to have an effect. When the purpose of the feint is to draw the defender’s forces away from the intended breakthrough sectors, the attacker must wait until the defender has actually moved forces. There will thus likely be a delay between the initial feint operations and the start of decisive operations. The situation during that delay may well look like the attack has failed.

The Ukrainian military and government are repeating requests to avoid any reporting or forecasting of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, a measure that is essential if the counteroffensive includes feints or misdirections.[5] It is of course possible that the counteroffensive will fail, that any particular breakthrough attempt that fails was not a feint, or that the Ukrainian military has made some error in planning, timing, or execution that will undermine the success of its operations. But the situation in which Ukraine finds itself calls for a shrewd and nuanced counteroffensive operation with considerable misdirection and careful and controlled advances. It is far more likely in these very early days, therefore, that a successful counteroffensive would appear to be stalling or unsuccessful for some time before its success became manifest.

ISW and other analysts studying this war have been appropriately cautious and circumspect in announcing the culmination or defeat of major Russian offensive operations. ISW will apply the same caution and circumspection to assessing the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and exhorts others to do the same.

Russian authorities released a list of the locations of schools in occupied areas, including precise coordinates, ostensibly warning of possible Ukrainian attacks against them as the school year begins on September 1. This announcement could be preparation for Russian false-flag attacks on schools, for an explanation of very low attendance, or for some other purpose. The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) issued a statement on August 31 warning that Ukrainian forces are preparing to shell schools in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[6] The Russian MoD released a list of the addresses and exact locations of all schools in occupied areas of Ukraine under the pretext of “ensuring the safety of students and teachers.”[7] This statement, along with the list of schools in occupied areas, could be an attempt to set information conditions for three potential courses of action on September 1. The first, and most dangerous, may be a preparation for Russian troops to stage a false-flag attack against educational infrastructure in occupied areas of Ukraine and blame the Ukrainian armed forces for the attack. The second scenario, which is more likely, is that Russian authorities may be setting conditions to explain very low enrollment and attendance in Russian-run schools as the school year begins. As ISW reported on August 30, Ukrainian families with children have been increasingly leaving Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine as the school year approaches.[8] Russian authorities may seek to amplify the claimed threat of Ukrainian strikes against schools in order to explain low attendance levels. The third scenario is that Russian authorities could be attempting to establish a published no-strike list by identifying specific civilian infrastructure, which will later allow them to use the identified schools as military bases with the expectation that Ukrainian forces will not target designated civilian infrastructure.

Russian authorities are additionally using the start of the new school year to escalate efforts to institutionalize the elimination of Ukrainian identity. Russian authorities continued to disseminate Russian educational materials in schools in occupied areas of Ukraine. Russian-backed authorities from Sevastopol arrived in Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast, to deliver backpacks and official state symbols of the Russian Federation to local schools.[9] The Russian-appointed head of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, similarly called on educators in Crimea to intensify patriotic programming in Crimean schools, notably to teach children about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to conduct a “special military operation” in Ukraine.[10] Ukrainian outlet Strana reported that the first lesson that will be taught in schools in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts is oriented on a lesson outline that pulls from Putin’s article on “The Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, his speeches on the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), and the commencement of the "special military operation.”[11] In these speeches, Putin rejected the legitimacy of Ukrainian identity, declaring that it “is entirely the product of the Soviet era... shaped on the lands of historical Russia.”[12] He also repeatedly declared that Ukraine is part of Russia and cannot be a state in its own right. The explicit link between Russian-imposed curricula in Ukrainian schools and these speeches and writings is part of an effort to erase the Ukrainian identity in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine through educational control.[13]

The G7 Non-Proliferation Directors Group stated that Russian attempts to disconnect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) would be “unacceptable,” ahead of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) delegation’s visit to the plant.[14] The G7 Non-Proliferation Directors Group noted that the ZNPP should not be used for military activities or the storage of military material. Satellite imagery provided by Maxar previously showed Russian combat vehicles sheltering under the ZNPP infrastructure very close to a reactor vessel.[15]

Russian and Ukrainian sources again exchanged accusations of shelling and loitering munition strikes on Enerhodar on August 31. Kremlin-sponsored sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strike on the Enerhodar City Council building, and Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces shelled the building in an effort to frame Ukrainian forces ahead of the IAEA visit.[16]

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers began an information operation declaring the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure almost as soon as it was launched. It is far too soon to assess the progress of the counteroffensive operation, however, which will likely be difficult to evaluate in the short term if it relies on feints and misdirection.
Russian occupation authorities are imposing a curriculum on Ukrainian students aimed at eliminating the notion of Ukrainian national identity, explicitly in line with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speeches and writings falsely claiming that Ukraine is part of Russia, and that the Ukrainian identity was an invention of the Soviet period.
The G7 Non-Proliferation Directors Group condemned Russian attempts to disconnect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant from the Ukrainian power grid as “unacceptable” ahead of the arrival of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) delegation to the plant.
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks south of Bakhmut and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
Russian-appointed officials in Crimea began “reconstructing” air defense systems to counter smaller targets in response to recurring drone attacks on the peninsula. Russian officials are likely strengthening Crimean air defenses at the expense of other theaters.
Zabaykalsky Krai announced the formation of the “Daursky” volunteer engineer-sapper battalion.
Ukrainian partisans conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack against the headquarters of the “Together with Russia” political organization in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, where occupation authorities were reportedly preparing for sham referenda.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence and have not revealed any additional details about the counteroffensive as of August 31. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and are targeting strongholds and ammunition depots throughout Kherson Oblast.[17] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces have destroyed two unspecified command posts, two ammunition depots, an anti-aircraft system, a radar station, and other areas of Russian manpower concentration.[18] Ukrainian aviation continues to support counteroffensive measures and reportedly carried out 16 airstrikes on Russian strongholds.[19] Ukrainian officials confirmed striking four ammunition depots in Bashtanskyi, Beryslavskyi, Kakhovskyi, and Khersonskyi Raions (Districts) on August 30, and ISW previously reported social media footage of explosions in some of these areas.[20]

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military equipment and infrastructure northwest and south of Kherson City on August 31. Ukrainian Telegram channels reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian convoy in Oleshky (about 9km southeast of Kherson City on the left bank of the Dnipro River) that was going to reinforce Russian forces operating on the right bank of the Dnipro River.[21] Ukrainian officials have previously reported that Russian forces have accumulated large quantities of military equipment in Oleshky.[22] Previously observed satellite imagery has shown Russian convoys consistently concentrate in one area on the bank of the Dnipro River to wait in lines to cross the river on a pontoon ferry—a mode of transportation vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes.[23] Ukrainian forces also likely struck Russian positions in Chornobaivka, located around the Kherson City International Airport northwest of Kherson City, as they have multiple times before.[24] Social media footage shows a large smoke plume in the area of a furniture factory in Nova Kakhovka and witnesses reported hearing strikes in Kakhovka (approximately 12km northeast of Nova Kakhovka).[25] The persistence of Ukrainian strikes in central Kherson Oblast indicates that Ukrainian forces seek to deny Russian resupply in upper Kherson Oblast to support expelling Russian forces to the left bank of the Dnipro River.

Russian milbloggers provided unverifiable overviews of Ukrainian advances throughout Kherson Oblast. Russian milbloggers largely agreed that fighting persisted around five areas: east of Vysokopillya on the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border in the direction of Nova Kakhovka; near Olhyne and Arkhanhelske near the Inhulets River and the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border; near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River; near Blahodatne around 40km east of Mykolaiv City; and north and northwest of Kherson City.[26]

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces stabilized the frontline around Oleksandrivka (about 40km west of Kherson City) and did not report any ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives in the area.[27] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance to Myrne (about 24km northwest of Kherson City), while fighting continued in Soldatske, just southwest of Myrne.[28] A milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces have been expanding their successes in Ternovi Pody and Lyubomyrivka (both about 30km north of Kherson City) and noted the withdrawal of Russian troops south of Zeleny Hai (about 7km south of Ternovi Pody).[29] Several milbloggers amplified a claim that Russian airborne forces stopped two Ukrainian advances onto Blahodatne, approximately 40km east of Mykolaiv City.[30] Milbloggers provided conflicting reports about Ukrainian control of Sukhyi Stavok (about 6km east of the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River), with some sources claiming that Ukrainian forces have retreated to the bridgehead, and others claiming that Ukrainian forces are fighting from Sukhyi Stavok in the directions of Davydiv Brid and Bruskynske (both on the T2207 highway).[31] Milbloggers also claimed that Ukrainian forces are fighting in Arkhanhelske and have pushed Russian forces from the northern part of the settlement.[32] Russian milbloggers also provided satellite imagery of craters formed after claimed Russian shelling on Ukrainian units advancing in the Petrivka.[33] Other milbloggers shared footage of a claimed Ukrainian tank detonating after Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian advance from near Petrivka in the southeastern direction.[34] NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) remotely sensed data showed fires in the vicinity of Petrivka, which may support the milbloggers’ claims.

[Source: NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System over northern Kherson, August 31 and Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS User Community]

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Ukrainian forces failed to resume counteroffensives in the Mykolaiv City-Kryvyi Rih direction among other directions.[35] The Russian Defense Ministry also claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks around Olhyne, Ternovi Pody, and Arhanhelske, and that Russian forces have defeated Ukrainian forces in Sukhyi Stavok.[36] The Russian Defense Ministry, thus, has admitted that Ukrainian forces were able to advance to Sukhyi Stavok despite previously declaring the total defeat of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on August 30.[37] The Russian Defense Ministry did not provide any footage to support its claims. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Deputy Minister of Information Daniil Bezsonov called on the Russian military command to provide more footage of Russian successes in defeating Ukrainian forces in Kherson Oblast, stating that Russian milbloggers are only able to obtain a limited amount of footage from the frontlines.[38]

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and two supporting efforts);
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops in the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
Russian Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv City
Russian Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis or toward Siversk on August 31 and continued regular patterns of air and artillery strikes in these areas.[39]

Russian forces continued ground attacks south of Bakhmut on August 31. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to advance in the direction of Vesela Dolyna (5km southeast of Bakhmut), Zaitseve (8km southeast of Bakhmut), and Mayorsk (about 20km southwest of Bakhmut on the outskirts of Horlivka).[40] Russian troops, including elements of the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC), are reportedly continuing to fight to take full control of Kodema, 13km southwest of Bakhmut.[41] Russian sources also indicated that Russian troops are fighting northeast of Bakhmut near the territory of the Knauf Gypsum Plant in southeastern Soledar.[42]

Russian forces conducted a series of ground attacks along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on August 31. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops conducted offensive operations toward Pervomaiske (about 11km northwest of the outskirts of Donetsk City), Kransohorivka (11km west of the outskirts of Donetsk City), Marinka (directly on the western outskirts of Donetsk City), and Pobieda (just south of Marinka along the Vuhledar-Marinka road).[43] Russian sources reported that the 11th Regiment of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is fighting in the Pisky-Pervomaiske area, likely seeking to push the frontline further west of Donetsk City.[44] Russian troops also continued efforts to advance on Avdiivka under the cover of artillery fire.[45] Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks southwest of Donetsk City and continued firing on Ukrainian positions between Donetsk City and the Zaporizhia Oblast border.[46]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City on August 31. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian troops attempted to advance toward Prudyanka, about 25km north of Kharkiv City.[47] Local Ukrainian source Derhachi City Council also stated that heavy fighting is occurring in Tsupivka, Dementiivka, and Velyki Prokhody, which are all settlements near Prudyanka along contested frontlines in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.[48] Russian forces launched a rocket attack on central districts of Kharkiv City from Belgorod, Russia, and continued artillery strikes on settlements to the north and east of Kharkiv City.[49]

Russian troops southeast of Kharkiv City appear to be contracting to more defensible positions, potentially in anticipation of limited Ukrainian counterattacks in this area. Geolocated photos posted on August 31 show that Russian forces blew up a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River in Bairak, about 70km southeast of Kharkiv City, and reportedly withdrew from the vicinity so rapidly that they abandoned a tank on the southern bank of the river.[50] Several Russian sources similarly voiced concern that Ukrainian troops are accumulating military equipment in the Balakliya area, about 5km northwest of Bairak, in preparation for counterattacks toward Kharkiv City.[51] While ISW cannot independently confirm the veracity of these claims, the Russian troops holding the line between Kharkiv-City and Izyum are likely of lower quality, and Russian commanders could well seek to withdraw them to more defensible lines to minimize the risk of serious setbacks in the event of even localized Ukrainian attacks.

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to regroup units and concentrate elements of the 3rd Army Corps in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast with the aim of resuming offensive operations on the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline.[52] It is unclear whether the Ukrainian General Staff meant that these 3rd Army Corps elements are regrouping together with the degraded units already operating in the occupied areas of Zaporizhia Oblast, or if the 3rd Army Corps units are regrouping themselves to form assault groups of their own. Elements of the 3rd Army Corps will likely operate on the eastern segment of the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline by the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast administrative border given that Russian forces have made some minor attempts to advance in the area.[53] These elements are unlikely to resume advances on the western segment of the frontline because Russian forces have been undertaking defensive measures such as mining roads leading to crucial ground lines of communication between Tokmak, Melitopol, and Berdyansk.[54]

Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces launched missile strikes against Tokmak on August 31, claiming that Ukrainian forces targeted civilian and agricultural infrastructure.[55] ISW cannot independently verify Russian claims, however. Ukrainian forces may have targeted Russian strongholds or equipment in Tokmak, which is an operationally significant town north of Melitopol and a hub of Russian GLOCs in the area. Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast officials also have accused Russian forces of shelling Velyka Bilozerka (within Russian-controlled territory approximately 25km south of Enerhodar).[56]

Russian-appointed Crimean officials are introducing more security measures against claimed Ukrainian drone attacks on the peninsula, likely at the expense of air defenses in other areas. Russian-appointed Chairman of the State Council of Crimea Vladimir Konstantinov stated that the Russian military is “restructuring” its air defense systems in Crimea to deal with threats from small Ukrainian drones.[57] Konstantinov noted that the air defense system in Crimea is optimized to defend against larger air targets such as missiles and manned aircraft, but that Russian forces will reconstruct Crimean air defense to defeat smaller targets. Head of the Russian-occupied Crimea Servey Aksyonov introduced restrictions on the sale, use, or distribution of commercially available drones and pyrotechnic products until the end of the Russian ”special military operation” in Ukraine.[58] Russia will likely intensify efforts to augment its air defenses in Crimea. ISW previously reported that Russia withdrew an S-300 air defense system from Syria and may pull additional systems from other axes around Ukraine.[59]

Russian forces did not launch ground assaults in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts on August 31.[60] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, Plonytsky Tract, and near the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border.[61] Russian forces continued to target Nikopol with Grad multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) rockets and shell settlements in Mykolaiv Oblast.[62]

Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to recruit and deploy volunteer battalions. The regional government of Zabaykalsky Krai announced the formation of the “Daursky” volunteer engineer-sapper battalion on August 31.[63] Contractors with the battalion earn a 100,000-ruble ($1,639) signing bonus and can earn up to 240,000 rubles ($3,934) in hazard pay.[64] Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov announced that another detachment of Russian volunteers who completed training in the Chechen Republic deployed to combat zones in Ukraine on August 31.[65]

The Russian government is intensifying its efforts to press Russian citizens into the Russian military. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that the website of the Volgograd College of Economics and Technology posted mobilization reserve positions in its list of job openings for graduates with disabilities.[66] Magadan Oblast Governor Sergey Nosov held a meeting with representatives of the “Cossacks of the Magadan Oblast” organization on August 31 to discuss simplifying bureaucratic processes—such as medical examinations—to entice Cossack organization members to sign into contract service with the Russian Armed Forces.[67] Russian Cossack forces—notably from Krasnodar Krai—have already deployed and participated in combat operations in Ukraine.[68]

Ukrainian intelligence claimed that Russia is intensifying recruitment efforts for Moscow and St. Petersburg citizens but is keeping them in rear areas in Crimea, away from combat roles. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on August 31 that Russian forces will deploy Muscovites and St. Petersburgers called up during covert mobilization to reinforce Russian military units stationed in Crimea.[69] The GUR claimed that Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Commander Army General Alexander Dvornikov decided to deploy 1,200 such personnel to Crimea to resupply existing units there. The GUR’s report states that these servicemen are not contract soldiers, will make about 5,000 rubles ($82) salary, and will not receive death benefits if they die. The GUR’s statement additionally indicates that Dvornikov retains command over the SMD despite his prolonged absence from public view.

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)

Partisan attacks in occupied areas are continuing to pressure Russian-backed collaborators and occupation administrators. Ukrainian partisans conducted an IED attack against the headquarters of the “Together with Russia” political organization in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, where occupation authorities were reportedly preparing for sham referenda on August 30.[70] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that the Russian-backed head of Zaporizhia’s occupation administration, Yevheny Balitsky, fled to Crimea due to mounting fears that Ukrainian partisans are escalating the targeting of Russian-backed political figures in occupied areas.[71] Fedorov noted that members of Balitsky’s administration are turning themselves in to Ukrainian security services to protect themselves from partisan strikes and the potential for retaliation on the part of Russian authorities for their defection.[72] Russian-backed head of Kherson’s occupation administration, Kirill Stremousov, reportedly fled to Voronezh, Russia, for his own security no later than August 30.[73]

Russian occupation authorities are continuing efforts to coerce and intimidate residents of occupied areas in preparation for sham referenda. Ukraine’s Kakhkovka Operational Group reported that Russian occupation forces in Kherson City are deliberately creating a humanitarian crisis in order to force citizens to accept Russian citizenship in exchange for necessary humanitarian aid.[74] The Kakhkovka group stated that Russian occupiers are also distributing pensions to the elderly without their explicit consent, which fosters dependency on Russian social service payments and allows Russian authorities to gather citizens’ personal information, which the occupation administration can use to claim putative support from the locals for Russian occupation governance.[75]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

[3] https://t.me/vysokygovorit/9245 ; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/9243 ; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/9242 ; https://t.me/rybar/38007; https://3... dot ru/news/ukrainian-crisis/kontrnastuplenie-vsu-zahlebnulos/

[4] https://iz dot ru/1346652/2022-06-08/voennyi-istorik-zaiavil-o-konflikte-ofisa-zelenskogo-s-glavnokomanduiushchim-vsu; https://ria dot ru/20220817/vsu-1810206230.html; https://ru.espreso dot tv/okkupanty-rasprostranyayut-feyki-o-konflikte-mezhdu-zelenskim-i-zaluzhnym-tsentr-pri-snbo; https://newsua dot ru/news/79546-na-ukraine-soobshchili-o-konflikte-zelenskogo-i-glavkoma-vsu-zaluzhnogo-iz-za-severodonetska; https://360tv dot ru/news/ukrainian-crisis/kontrnastuplenie-vsu-zahlebnulos/

[11] http://en.kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/66181; https://t.me/stranaua/61142; https://ria.ru/20220224/operatsiya-1774620380.html

[12] http://en.kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/66181

[57] https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/15608279

[58] https://rk dot gov.ru/ru/document/show/35852; https://t.me/Aksenov82/1398

[63] https://75 dot ru/news/287807%20; https://75 dot ru/news/287807; https://www.chita dot ru/text/society/2022/08/31/71614832/; https://newtimes dot ru/articles/detail/220598

[64] https://75 dot ru/news/287807%20; https://75 dot ru/news/287807; https://www.chita dot ru/text/society/2022/08/31/71614832/; https://newtimes dot ru/articles/detail/220598

[65] https://grozny dot tv/news/main/50290; https://topwar dot ru/201107-ocherednoj-otrjad-dobrovolcev-proshedshih-podgotovku-v-chechne-otpravilsja-v-zonu-svo-iz-groznogo.html; https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/2770

[67] https://kolyma dot ru/news/obshestvo/109968-sergey-nosov-segodnya-blagodarya-iniciativnoy-deyatelnosti-magadanskih-kazachih-obschestv-ukreplyaetsya-avtoritet-kazachestva.html

[69] https://gur.gov dot ua/content/okupanty-planuiut-ukripyty-oboronu-krymu-moskvychamy-pitertsiamy-ta-strokovykamy.html ; https://t.me/spravdi/16306

[70] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/08/31/u-berdyansku-pidirvaly-okupaczijnyj-shtab-pidgotovky-do-referendumu/; https://www.rbc dot ua/rus/news/berdyanske-podorvali-shtab-kollaborantov-1661941057.html; https://news dot ru/europe/v-berdyanske-podtverdili-vzryv-v-zdanii-gumanitarnogo-shtaba/; https://www.vesti dot ru/article/2917515; https://md.tsargrad dot tv/news/v-berdjanske-u-shtaba-volonterov-my-vmeste-s-rossiej-proizoshel-vzryv_615666; https://t.me/stranaua/61015; https://t.me/rybar/37978; https://t.me/zalpalyanytsya/1478

understandingwar.org

2. Secret American Special Operations Mission Rescued A Hostage In Africa This Week

I have not seen any other reporting on this. (yet)

Secret American Special Operations Mission Rescued A Hostage In Africa This Week

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley revealed the hostage rescue mission in Africa during a speech.

JOSEPH TREVITHICK

AUG 31, 2022 1:22 PM

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · August 31, 2022

Details remain limited, but the U.S. military has disclosed that American special operations forces recently recovered of hostage from somewhere on or near the African continent. Although any connection is unconfirmed at this time, representatives of the Catholic Church did announce today that Suellen Tennyson, an 83-year-old nun who was abducted in the northwest African country of Burkina Faso earlier this year, is now safe.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley first revealed the operation during a speech at a ceremony yesterday to mark the turnover of command of SOCOM from Army Gen. Richard Clarke to Army Gen. Bryan Fenton. In the course of those remarks, Milley ran through a list of notable U.S. special operations forces accomplishments under Clarke's tenure.

"Under Rich's command, SOCOM teams rescued a U.S. citizen in Nigeria just 96 hours after capture. They eliminated [Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem] Soleimani, [and ISIS head Abu Bakr Al] Baghdadi," the Chairman said. "And most recently, in the last 48 hours, they recovered another hostage."

The operation in Nigeria that Milley mentioned was the rescue of Philip Walton, the son of a Christian missionary who had been captured in neighboring Niger in 2020. You can read more about how U.S. special operations forces successfully retrieved Walton, a mission that involved CV-22 Osprey tilt-rotors supported by various tankers flying long-distance from a base in Spain, here.

In response to queries regarding this newly revealed operation, SOCOM directed The War Zone to contact U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). We have not yet received a response from AFRICOM, which is headquartered in Germany.

A spokesperson for the Joint Staff told The War Zone they had nothing to add to Milley's remarks when contacted.

The Catholic Archdiocese of New Orleans and Bishop Theophile Nare of the Kaya Diocese in Burkina Faso both subsequently issued statements about the release of Sister Tennyson. The nun is a member of the order of the Marianites of the Holy Cross who had been serving in a parish in Burkina Faso since 2014. She was abducted by unknown gunmen in April.

The FBI's official notice regarding the kidnapping of Sister Suellen Tennyson in April.

A number of terrorist and militant groups, including regional franchises of both Al Qaeda and ISIS, operate in Burkina Faso and neighboring countries.

Sister Tennyson is not the only foreign hostage in captivity across Africa. As of 2020, there were at least six were being held by various groups just in the Sahel region of Africa, which separates the Sahara Desert from true Sub-Saharan Africa. The most well-known of these individuals is Jeffery Woodke, a Christian missionary aid worker, who was kidnapped in Niger in 2016. Woodke is currently understood to be in the custody of elements of Jama'at Nasr Al Islam Wal Muslimin, or JNIM, an Al Qaeda franchise based in Mali that was formed from the merger of a number of regional terrorist groups in 2017.

In 2017, then-AFRICOM commander Marine Corps Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, who has since retired, said that a botched counter-terrorism operation in Niger that left four American service members and many more Nigerien troops dead – which you can read more about here – was related to the efforts to rescue Woodke. A subsequent exhaustive investigation that ABC News conducted, which resulted in a documentary called 3212 Un-Redacted, found no evidence to substantiate that, and many questions still remain about that incident.

In November 2021, Woodke's wife, Els Woodke, publicly lambasted U.S. government efforts to secure her husband's release and said that American authorities were impeding her efforts to raise money to pay a multi-million dollar ransom. A U.S. official told the AP in response to her remarks that the U.S. government's policy of taking all steps to deny hostage takers concessions, such as ransoms, "does not preclude the United States government from helping hostage families with private efforts to communicate with hostage takers."

No matter what, it is certainly good to hear that there is at least one less hostage out there.

We will update this story as more information becomes available.

Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · August 31, 2022

3. U.N. Says China May Have Committed ‘Crimes Against Humanity’ in Xinjiang

About time. Interessting timing.

The 48 page report can be downloaded here: https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/countries/2022-08-31/22-08-31-final-assesment.pdf

U.N. Says China May Have Committed ‘Crimes Against Humanity’ in Xinjiang

The organization’s human rights office delivered its much-delayed report minutes before Michelle Bachelet, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, was to leave office.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/31/world/asia/un-china-xinjiang-uyghurs.html?

Give this article

A security guard at a detention center in Yarkant County, Xinjiang, China, last year. Delays to the U.N. report about abuses in the region prompted fierce pushback from rights groups.Credit...Ng Han Guan/Associated Press

By Nick Cumming-Bruce and Austin Ramzy

Published Aug. 31, 2022

Updated Sept. 1, 2022, 4:27 a.m. ET

阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版

GENEVA — In a long-awaited report released on Wednesday, the United Nations’ human rights office accused China of serious human rights violations that “may constitute international crimes, in particular crimes against humanity,” in its mass detention of Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim groups in its far western region of Xinjiang.

The assessment was released shortly before midnight in Geneva and minutes before Michelle Bachelet, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, was set to leave office.

The release ended a nearly yearlong delay that had exposed Ms. Bachelet and her office to fierce pushback by rights groups, activists and others who had accused her of caving to Beijing, which had sought to block the report.

The 48-page report did not use the word “genocide,” a designation applied by the United States and by an unofficial tribunal in Britain last year. But it validated rights groups’ and activists’ claims that China has detained Uyghurs, Kazakhs and others, often for having overseas ties or for expressing religious faith.

The report is “an unprecedented challenge to Beijing’s lies and horrific treatment of Uyghurs,” said Sophie Richardson, the China director for Human Rights Watch. “The high commissioner’s damning findings explain why the Chinese government fought tooth and nail to prevent the publication of her Xinjiang report, which lays bare China’s sweeping rights abuses.”

To Uyghur activists, the report’s findings were a powerful vindication of their yearslong effort to draw attention to the suppression of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang. Beijing has routinely rejected any assertions of arbitrary detentions and abuses in Xinjiang and has accused Uyghur activists of lying. The activists say their families in Xinjiang have been imprisoned, detained and threatened by the authorities to try to silence them.

“It paves the way for meaningful and tangible action by member states, U.N. bodies and the business community,” said Dolkun Isa, president of the World Uyghur Congress. “Accountability starts now,” he added.

Image

Michelle Bachelet in Geneva last week. The report’s publication came minutes before she was set to leave office as the U.N. high commissioner for human rights.Credit...Fabrice Coffrini/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Tahir Imin, a Uyghur activist in Washington, said that because of the months of delays and pressure from Beijing, he was surprised that Ms. Bachelet had come through with releasing the report before she left office, and that its findings were forceful.

“I wasn’t expecting it to come up with such a strong conclusion,” he said by phone. “I was a little emotional when I saw it mentioned crimes against humanity.”

In comments emailed early Thursday local time by the office of the U.N. high commissioner for human rights in Geneva, Ms. Bachelet said of the report, “I said that I would publish it before my mandate ended and I have.”

She explained that the delay in publishing had been because she “wanted to take the greatest care to deal with the responses and inputs received from the (Chinese) government last week.”

China, which received a copy of the report days before its release, had pressured Ms. Bachelet not to publish it. The report was a “farce orchestrated by the United States and a small number of Western powers,” Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said at a regular news briefing on Wednesday. China submitted a 131-page response that said the human rights office’s “so-called ‘assessment’” was “based on disinformation and lies” and ignored its success in stopping extremism in Xinjiang.

When news of the detentions began trickling out, the Chinese authorities at first denied the detention campaign, but later said they were teaching basic job and language skills to bolster employment and prevent radicalism.

Former detainees, however, have described physical abuse, mistreatment and hours of indoctrination in Communist Party ideology. Some of those held have included successful artists, scholars, businesspeople and other community leaders who had no need for job training.

Image

A screen in Beijing broadcasting news footage of Ms. Bachelet’s virtual meeting with President Xi Jinping of China in May. During her visit, she offered little criticism of the crackdown in Xinjiang.Credit...Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters

United Nations researchers interviewed 26 former detainees, two thirds of whom described treatment “that would amount to torture and/or other forms of ill-treatment.” The report also said allegations of sexual and gender-based violence, including of rape of people in custody, appeared credible.

It also said that the “arbitrary and discriminatory detention” of Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim groups “may constitute international crimes, in particular crimes against humanity.” The report said, however, that the U.N. agency was not able to confirm estimates of the total number of people held or affected by the system China calls vocational education and training.

Among its recommendations, the U.N. agency called on China to promptly release all people who have been arbitrarily confined, clarify the whereabouts of people who have gone missing and whose family members have sought information on and investigate allegations of abuses in the facilities.

As the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, Ms. Bachelet had spoken out frequently and often frankly on abuses and concerns across all continents, including on China’s crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong. But when it came to China’s treatment of dissidents and the allegations of crimes in Xinjiang, she had spoken with extreme caution.

Criticism against Ms. Bachelet intensified after she visited China in May and made a short trip to Xinjiang but offered little disapproval then of the crackdown in the region, instead saying the chief outcome of her trip was to foster high-level discussion with the Chinese authorities.

Ms. Bachelet’s comments were denounced by overseas Uyghurs and rights groups that accused her of ignoring widespread repression. The report by her office was welcomed as a long-overdue recognition of the abuses that China has been accused of committing as part of state policy in the region.

Though the report’s publication on Wednesday may spare Ms. Bachelet from charges by activists that she was derelict in her duty, it will not end the controversy over her dealings with Beijing.

Image

Shule County, Xinjiang, last year. In the region, the Chinese authorities said they were teaching basic job and language skills to bolster employment and prevent radicalism.Credit...Ng Han Guan/Associated Press

U.N. investigators had a report on Xinjiang on Ms. Bachelet’s desk nearly a year ago, but she was accused of repeatedly deferring publication. At a recent news conference, she acknowledged that she had given priority to reaching agreement with Beijing on the terms of her visit to China.

Ms. Bachelet’s parting address to the Human Rights Council on Tuesday shed some light on her reasoning. She emphasized her belief in the importance of constructive dialogue with states and the need to do “everything possible to avoid a great fracture” in multilateral institutions.

Critics say her approach largely played into Beijing’s hands.

“By releasing this crucial report with just minutes left on her mandate, she has only done the bare minimum,” said Sarah M. Brooks, program director of the International Service for Human Rights. “We must now push for her office, her successor and states to ensure survivors get answers and perpetrators face accountability.”

Ms. Richardson, of Human Rights Watch, urged the United Nations Human Rights Council to begin an investigation into the Chinese government’s “crimes against humanity targeting the Uyghurs and others — and hold those responsible to account.”

The long delay in publishing the report may make that harder.

Diplomats in Beijing said its late release left little time for governments or rights groups to build a robust response in the Human Rights Council, which starts its last session of the year in 12 days.

Nick Cumming-Bruce reported from Geneva, and Austin Ramzy from Hong Kong. Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting from New York.

Repression in Xinjiang

For Uyghurs, U.N. Report on China’s Abuses Is Long-Awaited Vindication

Sept. 1, 2022

‘We Are Very Free’: How China Spreads Its Propaganda Version of Life in Xinjiang

U.S. Says China’s Repression of Uighurs Is ‘Genocide’

Jan. 19, 2021

‘Absolutely No Mercy’: Leaked Files Expose How China Organized Mass Detentions of Muslims

Nick Cumming-Bruce reports from Geneva, covering the United Nations, human rights and international humanitarian organizations. Previously he was the Southeast Asia reporter for The Guardian for 20 years and the Bangkok bureau chief of The Wall Street Journal Asia.

Austin Ramzy is a Hong Kong reporter, focusing on coverage of the city and also of regional and breaking news. He previously covered major events around Asia from Taipei and Beijing. @austinramzy

A version of this article appears in print on Sept. 1, 2022, Section A, Page 9 of the New York edition with the headline: China May Have Committed ‘Crimes Against Humanity’ in Xinjiang. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

4. China rejects UN report on Uyghur rights abuses in Xinjiang

Admit nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations.

I wonder how this will play at the upcoming party congress (behind closed doors of course).

China rejects UN report on Uyghur rights abuses in Xinjiang

AP · by KEN MORITSUGU and JAMEY KEATEN · September 1, 2022

BEIJING (AP) — China has denounced a long-delayed U.N. report that was released over its protest and that says the government’s arbitrary detention of Uyghurs and other mostly Muslim ethnic groups in the western region of Xinjiang may constitute crimes against humanity.

Human rights groups and the Japanese government welcomed the report, which had become caught up in a tug-of-war between China and others, who were critical of the delay and lobbying for its release.

The assessment released late Wednesday by the U.N. human rights office in Geneva concluded that China has committed serious human rights violations under its anti-terrorism and anti-extremism policies and calls for “urgent attention” from the U.N., the world community and China itself to address them.

The report largely corroborates earlier reporting by researchers, advocacy groups and the news media, while carefully steering away from estimates and other findings that cannot be definitively proven. It adds the weight of the U.N. to the conclusions, though China showed no sign of backing off its blanket denials and portraying the criticism as a politicized Western smear campaign.

In a sternly worded protest that the U.N. posted with its report, China’s diplomatic mission in Geneva said it firmly opposed the release of the U.N. assessment, which it said ignores human rights achievements made in Xinjiang and the damage caused by terrorism and extremism to the population.

China

“Based on the disinformation and lies fabricated by anti-China forces and out of presumption of guilt, the so-called ‘assessment’ distorts China’s laws, wantonly smears and slanders China, and interferes in China’s internal affairs,” the protest read in part.

Japan was one of the first foreign governments to comment on the report, which was released early Thursday morning in Asia. Its top government spokesperson urged China to improve transparency and human rights conditions in the Xinjiang region.

“Japan is highly concerned about human rights conditions in Xinjiang, and we believe that it is important that universal values such as freedom, basic human rights and rule of law are also guaranteed in China,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said.

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International called on the U.N. and governments to set up an independent investigation into the human rights abuses.

“Never has it been so important for the U.N. system to stand up to Beijing, and to stand with victims,” said John Fisher, the deputy director of global advocacy for the group.

The U.N. report made no mention of genocide, which some countries, including the United States, have accused China of committing in Xinjiang.

The report was drawn in part from interviews with former detainees and others familiar with conditions at eight detention centers.

It said that descriptions of the detentions were marked by patterns of torture and other cruel and inhuman treatment and said that allegations of rape and other sexual violence appear credible.

“The extent of arbitrary and discriminatory detention of members of Uyghur and other predominantly Muslim groups ... in (the) context of restrictions and deprivation more generally of fundamental rights ... may constitute international crimes, in particular crimes against humanity,” the report said.

The rights office said it could not confirm estimates that a million or more people were detained in the internment camps in Xinjiang, but added it was “reasonable to conclude that a pattern of large-scale arbitrary detention occurred” at least between 2017 and 2019.

Beijing has closed many of the camps, which it called vocational training and education centers, but hundreds of thousands of people continue to languish in prison, many on vague, secret charges.

The U.N. assessment said that reports of sharp increases in arrests and lengthy prison sentences in the region strongly suggested a shift toward formal incarceration instead of the use of the camps.

The report called on China to release all individuals arbitrarily detained and to clarify the whereabouts of those who have disappeared and whose families are seeking information about them.

That the report was released was in some ways as important as its contents.

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said she received pressure from both sides to publish — or not publish — and resisted it all, while noting her experience with political squeeze during her two terms as president of Chile.

Her announcement in June that the report would be released by end of her 4-year term on Aug. 31 triggered a swell in back-channel campaigns — including letters from civil society, civilians and governments on both sides of the issue.

“To be perfectly honest, the politicization of these serious human rights issues by some states did not help,” said Bachelet, who early on staked out a desire to cooperate with governments.

Critics had said a failure to publish the report would have been a glaring black mark on her tenure.

Agnès Callamard, the secretary general of Amnesty International, said, “The inexcusable delay in releasing this report casts a stain” on the record of the U.N. human rights office, “but this should not deflect from its significance.”

___

Keaten reported from Geneva. Associated Press journalists Chisato Tanaka in Tokyo and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed to this report.

AP · by KEN MORITSUGU and JAMEY KEATEN · September 1, 2022

5. History's bookends: Putin reversed many Gorbachev reforms

I was talking to a friend yesterday and he was making the same case that Putin is the anti-Gorbachev who undid everything that Gorbachev did.

History's bookends: Putin reversed many Gorbachev reforms

AP · by ANDREW KATELL · September 1, 2022

NEW YORK (AP) — One stood for freedom, openness, peace and closer ties with the outside world. The other is jailing critics, muzzling journalists, pushing his country deeper into isolation and waging Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II.

Such are history’s bookends between Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet Union’s last leader, and Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president.

In many ways, Gorbachev, who died Tuesday, unwittingly enabled Putin. The forces Gorbachev unleashed spun out of control, led to his downfall and the Soviet Union’s collapse.

Since coming to power in 1999, Putin has been taking a hard line that resulted in a near-complete reversal of Gorbachev’s reforms.

When Gorbachev came to power as Soviet leader in 1985, he was younger and more vibrant than his predecessors. He broke with the past by moving away from a police state, embracing freedom of the press, ending his country’s war in Afghanistan and letting go of Eastern European countries that had been locked in Moscow’s communist orbit. He ended the isolation that had gripped the USSR since its founding.

It was an exciting, hopeful time for Soviet citizens and the world. Gorbachev brought the promise of a brighter future.

Russia-Ukraine war

He believed in integration with the West, multi-lateralism and globalism to solve the world’s problems, including ending armed conflicts and reducing the danger of nuclear weapons.

In marked contrast, Putin’s worldview holds that the West is an “empire of lies,” and democracy is chaotic, uncontrolled and dangerous. While mostly refraining from direct criticism, Putin implies that Gorbachev sold out to the West.

Returning to a communist-style mindset, Putin believes the West is imperialistic and arrogant, trying to impose its liberal values and policies on Russia and using the country as a scapegoat for its own problems.

He accuses Western leaders of trying to restart the Cold War and restrain Russia’s development. He seeks a world order with Russia on equal footing with the United States and other major powers, and in some respects is trying to rebuild an empire.

Gorbachev sometimes bowed to Western pressure. Two years after U.S. President Ronald Reagan implored him to “tear down this wall” in a speech at the Berlin Wall, Gorbachev did so, indirectly, by not intervening in populist anti-communist revolutions in Eastern Europe. The dropping of the Iron Curtain and end of the Cold War followed.

At home, Gorbachev introduced two sweeping and dramatic policies — “glasnost” or openness — and “perestroika,” a restructuring of Soviet society. Previously taboo subjects could now be discussed, in literature, the news media and society in general. He undertook economic reforms to allow private enterprise, moving away from a state-run economy.

He also loosened up on the dreaded police state, freed political prisoners such as Andrei Sakharov, and ended the Communist Party’s monopoly on political power. Freer foreign travel, emigration and religious observances were also part of the mix.

Putin has veered away from Gorbachev’s changes. He focused on restoring order and rebuilding the police state. An increasingly severe crackdown on dissent has involved jailing critics, branding them traitors and extremists, including for merely calling the “special military operation” in Ukraine a war. He sees some critics as foreign-funded collaborators of Russia’s enemies.

In his quest for control, he’s shut down independent news organizations and banned human rights and humanitarian organizations. He demands complete loyalty to the state and emphasizes traditional Russian family, religious and nationalistic tenets.

Gorbachev’s leadership was not without failures. His more liberal policies were uneven, such as a bloody 1991 Soviet crackdown on the independence movement in the Soviet Baltic republic of Lithuania and the attempted early coverup of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster.

By 1988, he realized that trying to hide bad events wasn’t working, so when a massive earthquake hit Armenia in December 1988, he opened the borders to emergency international help and allowed transparency about the destruction.

After nearly a decade of fighting in Afghanistan, Gorbachev ordered the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989, entered into multiple arms-control and disarmament agreements with the United States and other countries, and helped end the Cold War. For those efforts, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1990.

But at home, Gorbachev’s economic reforms didn’t go well. Freeing industries from state control and allowing private enterprise too quickly and haphazardly created widespread shortages of food and consumer goods, worsened corruption and spawned a class of oligarchs.

The burgeoning independence movements in Soviet republics and other problems so angered Communist Party hard-liners that they attempted a coup against him in August 1991, further weakening his grip on power and leading to his resignation four months later.

In the end, many in Russia felt Gorbachev had left them with broken promises, dashed hopes and a weakened, humiliated country.

One who felt that way was Putin. For him, much of what Gorbachev did was a mistake. The biggest was the Soviet Union’s collapse, what Putin called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

The Soviet Union was disrespected, defeated and broken into pieces – 15 countries. For Putin, it was also personal, because as a KGB officer stationed in East Germany, he watched in horror as massive crowds staged the popular uprising that led to the removal of the Berlin Wall and Germany’s reunification, at one point besieging his KGB office in Dresden.

To this day, Putin’s perceptions about threats to his country and popular revolutions color his foreign policy and his deep mistrust of the West. They underpin his decision to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24.

As one justification for the war, he cites what he believes was a broken U.S. promise to Gorbachev – a supposed 1990 pledge that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe. U.S. officials have denied making such a pledge, but Putin believes NATO’s expansion, and specifically the prospect of neighboring Ukraine joining the alliance, pose an existential threat to Russia.

Critics allege that Putin distorts the facts and ignores local sentiments to claim Ukrainians want to be liberated from the Kyiv government and align with Moscow.

He has also embarked on a massive effort to modernize and expand Russia’s military might, moving away from arms-control accords that Gorbachev agreed to.

Putin’s war in Ukraine, his human rights violations and the 2014 annexation of Crimea have drawn massive international sanctions that are reversing the cultural and economic ties that Gorbachev fostered. But for a few allies, Russia is isolated.

While one might expect Gorbachev to have been more critical of Putin, he did condemn NATO’s eastward expansion and said the West bungled the chance offered by the Cold War’s end. He even supported Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

But in many other ways, the historic bookends between the two leaders are far apart.

Before Gorbachev rose to power, Reagan in 1983 famously branded Russia an “evil empire.” Five years later, he recanted the description at a summit with the Soviet leader.

Fast forward to today, when the current U.S. president, Joe Biden, has called Putin a “killer,” a “butcher” and a “war criminal” who “cannot remain in power.”

The Cold War that Gorbachev helped end is back.

___

Andrew Katell was an Associated Press correspondent based in Moscow who covered Gorbachev from 1988 to 1991. Now semi-retired, he has maintained a lifelong interest in Russian affairs and is a contributor to the AP’s coverage of Russia and Ukraine.

AP · by ANDREW KATELL · September 1, 2022

6. China locks down 21 million in Chengdu in COVID-19 outbreak

I was speaking with a friend from China and he told me that the zero COVID policy is severely damaging the economy and it is putting Xi's leadership at risk. He said while our mainstream media seems to think it is a done deal that Xi will get a third term he may only get one of the three positions (or none). E.g., President (ceremonial- least powerful); chairman of the military commission (powerful as it controls the military); general secretary of the party (most powerful).

China locks down 21 million in Chengdu in COVID-19 outbreak

AP · September 1, 2022

BEIJING (AP) — Chinese authorities have locked down Chengdu, a southwestern city of 21 million people, following a spike in COVID-19 cases.

Residents have been ordered to stay home, and about 70% of the flights have been suspended to and from the city, which is a major transit hub in Sichuan province and a governmental and economic center.

The start of the new school term has been delayed, although public transport continues to operate and citizens are permitted to leave the city if they can show a special need.

Under the rules announced Thursday, just one member of each family who can show a negative virus test within the past 24 hours is allowed out per day to buy necessities.

No word was issued on when the lockdown would be lifted.

Similar measures have seen millions of people confined to their homes in the northeastern city of Dalian, as well as Shijiazhuang, the capital of Hebei province that borders the capital Beijing.

Chengdu has reported around 1,000 cases in the latest outbreak and no deaths from the latest round of domestic transmission, but the extreme measures reflect China’s rigid adherence to its “zero-COVID” policy that has exacted a major toll on the economy, with lockdowns, business closures and mass testing requirements.

COVID-19

China says the measures are necessary to prevent a wider spread of the virus, which was first detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019. The fear of being caught in a lockdown situation or sent to a quarantine facility for even being in proximity with a person who tested positive has severely constrained people’s work, consumption and travel habits.

AP · September 1, 2022

7. US war-gamed with Ukraine ahead of counteroffensive and encouraged more limited mission

Outcomes of war games tend to drive more conservative plans.

It is a good thing MacArthur did not heed the wargames the Pentagon did not the Inchon landing.

US war-gamed with Ukraine ahead of counteroffensive and encouraged more limited mission | CNN Politics

CNN · by Katie Bo Lillis,Natasha Bertrand · August 31, 2022

Washington CNN —

In the buildup to the current Ukrainian counteroffensive, the US urged Kyiv to keep the operation limited in both its objectives and its geography to avoid getting overextended and bogged down on multiple fronts, multiple US and western officials and Ukrainian sources tell CNN.

Those discussions involved engaging in “war-gaming” with Kyiv, the sources said – analytical exercises that were intended to help the Ukrainian forces understand what force levels they would need to muster to be successful in different scenarios.

The Ukrainians were initially considering a broader counteroffensive, but narrowed their mission to the south, in the Kherson region, in recent weeks, US and Ukrainian officials said.

Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told CNN that “the United States has routine military-to-military dialogue at multiple levels with Ukraine. We will not comment on the specifics of those engagements. Generally speaking, we provide the Ukrainians with information to help them better understand the threats they face and defend their country against Russian aggression. Ultimately, the Ukrainians are making the final decisions for their operations.”

Maria Pokusaeva (L) and her son Oleksandr pose for a picture in southern Ukraine.

Rebecca Wright/CNN

As Ukraine pushes to retake the south, families fear being caught in the crosshairs

Officials say they believe there is now increased parity between the Ukrainian and Russian militaries. But western officials have been hesitant to label the nascent Ukrainian operation – which appeared to begin on Monday in the southern province of Kherson – a true “counteroffensive.”

How successful Ukraine is likely to be in regaining lost territory remains an open question, sources familiar with the latest intelligence tell CNN. Ukrainian officials have already said this offensive will likely be a slow operation, and punishingly cold winter weather is coming and then an early spring mud, both of which could force pauses in the fighting.

Still, there is a distinct feeling amongst Ukraine’s US and western advisers that the Ukrainian military is on much more even footing with Russia than was believed even just a few short months ago, multiple officials told CNN. Russia still maintains superior numbers in overall manpower and massed artillery.

But Ukrainian capabilities, bolstered by sophisticated western arms and training, have closed an important gap, officials say – particularly the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, that Ukraine has been using to launch attacks behind Russian front lines in recent months.

“It shows you what the sustained training and weapons provision can do when the force is highly motivated and capable in its employment,” a senior NATO official told CNN.

Another US military source put it more bluntly: Ukraine has made up for Russia’s advantage in sheer volume of fire with its “competence.”

Growing momentum

Ukraine has been publicly signaling for months that it intended to launch a major counteroffensive to retake territory lost to Russia in the six-month war. And even before Monday, when Ukrainian forces began increasing their artillery rocket and missile fire on the frontlines in southern Ukraine, Kyiv had been actively disrupting Russian resupply efforts and command and control across the region.

For weeks, Ukraine has used a mix of partisan supporters, long-range fire and special operations forces to launch a series of attacks far behind Russian lines – including in Crimea – that have targeted logistics and command and control hubs in preparation for the southern offensive.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks during his nightly address where he mentions that Ukrainian troops will chase the Russian army "to the border", as his senior advisor confirmed Ukrainian troops had broken through Russian defences in several sectors of the front line near the city of Kherson, in this still image taken from video recorded in Kyiv, Ukraine, August 29, 2022.

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/REUTERS

Ukraine claims early success in counteroffensive as Zelensky vows to 'chase' Russians to the border

“I don’t think it’s possible yet to confirm the extent of Ukrainian advances, but they’ve certainly impacted Russia’s ability to move north and south across [the Dnieper River] with their attacks on bridges,” the senior NATO official said on Wednesday. “And in terms of future prospects, I’d note that Ukraine is much closer to parity in troop numbers in Kherson than it has been in recent weeks” in the eastern provinces of the country, where fighting has ground on for months.

Attacks in Crimea have been a particularly smart strategy, one official said, because Russia has been using the peninsula as a launchpad for its operations in southern Ukraine.

Russia has also been forced to pull resources from the east “simply because of reports that the Ukrainians might be going more on the offense in the south,” John Kirby, the communications coordinator for the National Security Council, said on Monday.

“And so they’ve had to deplete certain units …in certain areas in the East in the Donbass, to respond to what they clearly believed was a looming threat of a counter offensive,” Kirby said.

A narrower mission

US and Ukrainian sources tell CNN that earlier plans for the Ukrainian operation were initially broader, and involved a more ambitious effort to regain other territory lost to the Russian invasion over the last six months, including the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia.

But by Monday, Ukrainian officials appeared laser-focused on retaking the Kherson region.

An administration official told CNN that in recent months, Ukraine has been asking the US for weapons specifically suited to their planned southern counteroffensive. The US fulfilled many of those requests – including additional ammunition, artillery and javelins – over the course of several presidential drawdown assistance packages provided to Ukraine over the last two months, the official said.

The planning exercises also helped the United States better grasp what kind of equipment, munitions or intelligence it could offer that would be most useful to Ukraine. Over the course of the war, the US has been regularly providing Ukraine with military advice and intelligence, along with billions of dollars in equipment and weaponry.

‘A slow operation to grind the enemy’

Officials say that Ukraine now appears more evenly matched with Russian forces not only because of the advanced western weaponry that Ukraine has been using effectively, but also because the Ukrainians still have the advantage in terms of morale, unit cohesion, tactical acumen, and a superior ability to improvise on the fly.

They have another advantage, too, two officials said: a population that is largely appalled by the Russian occupation, and willing to engage in partisan attacks to expel them – such as assassinations and sabotage efforts behind enemy lines.

Still, despite a more bullish assessment of Ukrainian fighting capabilities, US officials aren’t placing any bets that Ukraine will successfully retake Kherson – yet.

“I’m not sure this is going to be the big, massive counteroffensive that folks might be waiting on — it might be a smaller number of forces,” the US military source cautioned. Much will depend on how well Russia is able to defend newly-claimed territory, the source said—something that it has not yet been called upon to do in the last six months.

A Ukrainian presidential adviser also warned that the offensive will be a “slow operation to grind the enemy.”

“This process will not be very fast,” Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said in a statement posted on his Telegram account late Monday, “but will end with the installation of the Ukrainian flag over all the settlements of Ukraine.”

CNN · by Katie Bo Lillis,Natasha Bertrand · August 31, 2022

8. Ukrainian Soldiers Say They Are Advancing in the South, but at a Cost

Okay, maybe the Pentagon war games were correct.

Ukrainian Soldiers Say They Are Advancing in the South, but at a Cost

Troops recuperating at a hospital in southern Ukraine say they face fierce fighting in a push toward Kherson

By Matthew LuxmooreFollow

Aug. 31, 2022 6:02 pm ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-soldiers-say-they-are-advancing-in-the-south-but-at-a-cost-11661983338?mod=hp_lead_pos7

Ukrainian army units pushing toward Kherson in the south are retaking ground held for months by Russia’s invading troops amid extremely fierce fighting, according to Ukrainian soldiers taking part in the offensive.

Russian soldiers seemed well equipped and were putting up stiff resistance, the Ukrainians said.

“They’re throwing everything against us,” said a 22-year-old Ukrainian soldier who said Russians were fighting with artillery, tanks, helicopters and mortars. “They have a lot of equipment but few men.”

Interviews with eight soldiers who took part in fighting—and were being treated for injuries at a hospital behind the front lines—offered the most detailed on-the-ground picture yet from an offensive that Ukraine hopes will help it seize the initiative in the conflict and show its Western backers, and its own people, that its military can take on Moscow’s army and win.

Video Dispatch: Ukraine Launches Southern Offensive as Residents Flee the East

Guerrilla Warfare: Ukraine's Partisans are Taking the War to Russia

19fortyfive.com · by Alexander Motyl · August 31, 2022

Things are heating up on the resistance front in Ukraine.

There was a total of 24 resistance incidents in the 19 days under review, for an average of 1.26 per day.

Although the previous period under review, August 4-13, averaged 3.4 incidents per day, only 65 percent were violent, whether directed against persons or property. In August 13-31, violent incidents constituted 83 percent of the total.

More importantly, there were six incidents of violence against property in August 13-17 and only three in August 18-31. In contrast, violent incidents directed at persons numbered 11, and all took place after August 17.

In a word, Ukraine’s partisans are turning increasingly toward violence and especially toward violence against collaborators:

August 13, Melitopol, Zaporizhzhya province: partisans destroy rail bridge southwest of city, thereby disrupting rail traffic with occupied Crimea.

August 15, Dzhankoy and Simferopol, occupied Crimea: partisans distribute anti-Russian leaflets.

August 16, Kursk province, Russia: railroad tracks destroyed with explosive, possibly the work of Ukrainian partisans.

August 16, Kursk province, Russia: Russian security service, FSB, accuses Ukrainian saboteurs of felling six pylons supporting high-voltage electric cables on August 4, 9, and 12,

August 16, Dzhankoy, occupied Crimea: Russian Ministry of Defense accuses Ukrainian saboteurs of setting off massive explosions, declares state of emergency in Dzhankoy district. Ammunition depots and railroad tracks destroyed.

August 16, Lysychansk, Luhansk province: massive explosion in city, possibly the work of partisans.

August 16, Melitopol, Zaporizhzhya province: two explosions destroy cables transmitting Russian television.

August 17, Melitopol: explosion in city center near Russian command post.

August 17, Melitopol: explosion fells pylon supporting electric cables.

August 20, Mariupol, Donetsk province: failed assassination attempt on collaborationist mayor, Kostyantyn Ivashchenko.

August 20, Vasylivka district, Zaporizhzhya province: unknown number of Russian soldiers poisoned with Botulinum toxin type B. Russians accuse Ukrainians of “chemical terrorism.”

August 21, Melitopol, Zaporizhzhya province: partisans slit throat of Russian soldier who attempted to sexually assault a minor.

August 21, Melitopol: several explosions set off in city.

August 21, Kherson: partisans distribute leaflets calling on local population to join them.

August 23, Kherson province: failed assassination attempt on Ihor Telehin, deputy head of collaborationist department of internal policy.

August 24, Mykhaylivka, Zaporizhzhya province: car bomb kills collaborationist “mayor,” Ivan Sushko.

August 24, Nikolske, Mariupol district, Donetsk province: partisans raise Ukrainian flag in honor of Ukraine’s Independence Day.

August 24, Novoraysk and Borozenske, Kherson province: partisans raise Ukrainian flag in honor of Independence Day.

August 25, Pryazovske, Zaporizhzhya province: partisans bomb administrative building where referendum was being organized and Russian passports distributed.

August 26, Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhya province: assassination of Oleksandr Kolyesnikov, collaborationist deputy head of the city’s State Automobile Inspection.

August 27, Mykhaylivka, Zaporizhzhya province: collaborationist head of local police, Andriy Ryzhkov, found hanged.

August 28, Hola Prystan, Kherson province: Oleksiy Kovalov, collaborationist deputy head of “provincial government” shot and killed in his home. His wife’s throat slit.

August 28, occupied Crimea: Novaya gazeta reports that at least ten Ukrainian groups are involved in sabotage and intelligence gathering.

August 29, Mariupol, Donetsk province: two-man Russian patrol steps on mine planted by partisans. One dead, one severely wounded.

August 30, Kherson province: failed assassination attempt of collaborationist acting head of the State Automobile Inspection, Major Snyeshin.

August 31, Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhya province: explosion at headquarters of collaborationist “We Are Together with Russia” organization, which is preparing a referendum in the province.

Clearly, Ukrainian partisans are taking the war to the Russian rear. And they’re making collaborators pay a high price for their collaboration with the invaders. It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that partisan activity is being coordinated with the ongoing Ukrainian efforts to retake Kherson province and, eventually, the entire occupied south.

Expert Biography: Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Dr. Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, including Pidsumky imperii (2009); Puti imperii (2004); Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires (2001); Revolutions, Nations, Empires: Conceptual Limits and Theoretical Possibilities (1999); Dilemmas of Independence: Ukraine after Totalitarianism (1993); and The Turn to the Right: The Ideological Origins and Development of Ukrainian Nationalism, 1919–1929 (1980); the editor of 15 volumes, including The Encyclopedia of Nationalism (2000) and The Holodomor Reader (2012); and a contributor of dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines. He also has a weekly blog, “Ukraine’s Orange Blues.”

19fortyfive.com · by Alexander Motyl · August 31, 2022

10. Taiwan Crisis: Taiwan Shoots Down Unidentified Drone

Taiwan Crisis: Taiwan Shoots Down Unidentified Drone - Impakter

The overall picture as it develops: Pelosi's visit, China's drills and warnings, allies' responses — timeline of main events

byImpakter Editorial Board September 1, 2022 in Politics & Foreign Affairs, Society

impakter.com · by Impakter Editorial Board · September 1, 2022

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s historic visit to Taiwan that ended on August 4, the Chinese military begins its largest-ever drills around Taiwan and gets closer to the island than ever before, with Russia’s backing. It launches multiple missiles into Taiwan’s waters and crosses the Taiwan Strait median line (unofficial but so far respected de facto border between China and Taiwan), warning against foreign interference; meanwhile Taiwan “prepares for war without seeking war.”

Between August 4 and August 13, Chinese missiles fly over Taiwan for the first time; its planes and ships cross the median line again multiple times as its foreign ministry announces sanctions against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over her visit and puts on hold key dialogues with the US, including climate and military talks. For the first time, China carries out simulated attack drills as well.

On August 14, a delegation of five US lawmakers visit in Taiwan (unannounced), triggering a new series of military drills around the island by the Chinese army.

What is most concerning about these Chinese military exercises is that — also for the first time — they are carried out with live ammunition, which means that at anytime the exercises can be converted into an instant attack; and, being closer than ever to Taiwan, missiles for the first time have landed in Japan’s economic zone. Here is a map of the areas hit by Chinese missiles (screenshot of DW video):

Screenshot from latest DW video about TaiwanSeptember 1 Taiwan’s defence shoots down civilian drone

Taiwan shoots down an unidentified civilian drone near Kinmen Islands, its defence ministry said on Thursday.

Breaking: #Taiwan's Kinmen Defense Command said it has shot down an unknown civilian drone near Kinmen after the usual protocol to repel the drone fail to achieve the goal. This is the first time that shots fired by Taiwanese army has shot down a suspected Chinese drone.

— William Yang (@WilliamYang120) September 1, 2022

The drone, according to Taiwan, was shot down after attempts to repel it failed.

August 31 Taiwan promises to counter-attack if China enters its territory

Taiwan’s defence says it will exercise its right to self-defence and counter-attack if the Chinese military enters its territory.

In the Photo: Taiwan’s military. Photo Credit: Wang Yu Ching/Office of the President.

“For aircraft and ships that entered our sea and air territory of 12 nautical miles, the national army will exercise right to self-defence and counter attack without exception,” Taiwan’s defence official Lin Wen-Huang told reporters on Wednesday.

August 30 Taiwan fires warning shots at Chinese drone

Shortly after President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen orders the military to “take strong countermeasures” against what she describes as Chinese provocations, Taiwan fires warning shots at a Chinese drone — the first such warning shots since the new tensions began earlier in August.

Taiwan shoots at Chinese drone after president warns of 'strong countermeasures' https://t.co/GkwtYW07yj pic.twitter.com/RRrZbEFYnb

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 30, 2022

According to Taiwan’s military, the drone returned to China after the shots were fired.

August 29 Biden prepares $1.1bn arms sale to Taiwan

US President Joe Biden plans to ask Congress to approve an arms sale to Taiwan worth $1.1 billion, Politico reports, citing three sources familiar with Biden’s proposed package.

U.S.-based media outlet Politico claims the Biden administration plans to ask Congress to approve a US$1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan that includes anti-ship and air-to-air missiles, and also extends a radar surveillance contract. pic.twitter.com/lmCKQ3Wtau

— TaiwanPlus (@taiwanplusnews) August 30, 2022

The package would include 60 anti-ship missiles and 100 air-to-air missiles, and would extend a surveillance radar contract.

August 28 US warships enter Taiwan Strait

Two American warships sail through the Taiwan Strait, the de facto border between China and Taiwan, AP reports.

While US warships routinely sailed through the strait in the past, this is the first time they cross the Taiwan Strait since US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s historic visit to the island earlier this month.

In the Photo: The Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Antietam (CG 54) sails in formation during exercise Malabar 2018. Photo Credit: Sarah Myers/Wikimedia Commons.

“Guided-missile cruisers USS Antietam and USS Chancellorsville are conducting a routine Taiwan Strait transit August 28 through waters where high seas freedoms of navigation and overflight apply in accordance with international law,” the US Navy writes in a statement. “The ship’s transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

The U.S. Navy is sailing two warships through the Taiwan Strait in the first such transit publicized since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan earlier in August. https://t.co/uOyKvmrm45

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 28, 2022

August 25 Another US delegation visits Taiwan

Another US delegation visits Taiwan on August 25, local media report.

BREAKING: A visiting U.S. delegation onboard a U.S. Army UC-35A is expected to land in Taipei later tonight.

— Tingting Liu 劉亭廷 (@tingtingliuTVBS) August 25, 2022

Their trip marks the fourth visit to the island by US officials this month.

August 25 Taiwan proposes record defence spending in 2023

Taiwan proposes spending $19.4 billion on defence in 2023, almost 14% more than in 2022 according to Reuters.

Taiwan unveils record defence budget of 586.3 billion New Taiwan dollars ($19.41bn) amid tensions with China https://t.co/bazP25SrU7 pic.twitter.com/bqjkuvxT1e

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) August 25, 2022

Provided the proposal is approved by the parliament, it would mark Taiwan’s highest yearly defence spending to date, and the sixth consecutive year of defence budget growth.

August 21 Chinese military continues activities around the island, Taiwan says

Taiwan detects five Chinese ships and 12 planes around the island, its defence ministry says.

TAIPEI, Aug 20 (Reuters) – Taiwan's defence ministry said 17 Chinese aircraft and five Chinese ships were detected operating around Taiwan on Saturday as Beijing continued military activities near the island.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) August 20, 2022

Five of those planes cross the Taiwan Strait median line, the de facto border between China and Taiwan, the ministry adds.

August 21 Indiana governor visits Taiwan

The governor of Indiana arrives in Taipei, marking the second visit by US officials to the island since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s historic two-day trip earlier this month.

Indiana governor latest U.S. official to visit Taiwan https://t.co/PToz4L581B pic.twitter.com/718ekhfDp9

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 21, 2022

August 15 China launches new military drills

Chinese military reports it is carrying out new exercises in the seas and airspace around Taiwan over US lawmakers’ visit, Reuters reports.

China's military said it carried out more exercises near Taiwan as a group of U.S. lawmakers visited the Chinese-claimed island and met President Tsai Ing-wen, in what Beijing said was an infringement of its sovereignty https://t.co/eQDbB3k0a5

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 15, 2022

In its statement, China’s military describes the drills as a “stern deterrent to the United States and Taiwan continuing to play political tricks and undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” adding that it “continues to train and prepare for war.”

Aug. 14, 19:47 American lawmakers arrive in Taiwan

Five US lawmakers, including Senator Ed Markey, arrive in Taipei (unannounced) as part of what is described as a larger trip to the Indio-Pacific. The visit comes 12 days after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s historic trip to the island, and marks the second visit to Taiwan by high-level US officials this month.

US delegation of lawmakers arrives in Taiwan for a two-day visit during which they will meet President Tsai Ing-wen https://t.co/wO1pHsc9Cv pic.twitter.com/168ElihQBr

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) August 14, 2022

“Especially at a time when China is raising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the region with military exercises, Markey leading a delegation to visit Taiwan once again demonstrates the United States Congress’ firm support for Taiwan,” writes Taiwan’s presidential office in a statement.

Aug. 13, 15:19 Chinese aircraft cross medial line (again), Taiwan says

Taiwan’s ministry of defence reports that 13 Chinese air force planes crossed the median line again on Saturday, according to Reuters.

Taiwan says 13 Chinese air force planes crossed Taiwan Strait median line https://t.co/tEB4yTw8fy pic.twitter.com/8sZJAxoeVp

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 13, 2022

Aug. 13, 15:31 Taiwan thanks America for maintaining peace and security

As Reuters reports, “Taiwan’s foreign ministry on Saturday expressed ‘sincere gratitude’ towards the United States for taking ‘concrete actions’ to maintain security and peace in the Taiwan Strait and the region.”

"Sincere Gratitude: Taiwan Thanks US for Maintaining Security In Region https://t.co/VbiAaEjYpR pic.twitter.com/4oDlqacUJz

— NDTV News feed (@ndtvfeed) August 13, 2022

Aug. 10, 12:13 China ends unprecedented military exercises around Taiwan

Chinese military announces it is ending its largest-ever military drills around Taiwan, which began following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit on August 3.

China announces end of large-scale military drills near Taiwanhttps://t.co/gVbAFSAV9z

— Kyodo News | Japan (@kyodo_english) August 10, 2022

According to the military’s spokesperson, the drills were “completed successfully” but don’t mark an end to further “training and war preparation,” which the spokesperson says will continue.

Aug. 10, 10:44 China takes back previous promise to not send troops to Taiwan “after unification”

Chinese government releases a white paper on Taiwan repeating its resolve to annex Taiwan by force if doing so by “peaceful means” doesn’t work out.

“We will work with the greatest sincerity and exert our utmost efforts to achieve peaceful reunification. But we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures,” the paper reads.

As Reuters points out, China’s previous two papers on Taiwan, published in 1993 and 2000, both included a promise “to not send troops or administrative personnel to be based in Taiwan” after “unification.” Today’s paper, titled, “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era,” includes no such promise.

China has withdrawn a promise not to send troops or administrators to Taiwan if it takes control of the island, an official document showed, signaling a decision by President Xi Jinping to grant less autonomy than previously offered https://t.co/I3JxV6wzo5

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 10, 2022

Aug. 10, 09:55 China continues drills around Taiwan

China extends its unprecedented, largest-ever military drills around Taiwan, Reuters reports, adding that “Chinese navy ships remained active off both Taiwan’s east and west coasts on Wednesday morning.”

About 20 Chinese and Taiwanese ships stay close to median line in Taiwan Strait while several Chinese ships continue missions off the island's eastern coast

— Reuters pic.twitter.com/rgX7ySPUGi

— EHA News (@eha_news) August 10, 2022

The drills, which were scheduled to end after four days (on Sunday), so far included China’s launching of missiles over the island for the first time, China’s ships and planes crossing the median line multiple times and getting closer to the island than ever before, and simulated attacks with live ammunition (also unprecedented).

Aug. 9, 10:04 China used military exercises to prepare for invasion, Taiwan says

According to Taiwan’s foreign minister Joseph Wu, China used its military drills last week to prepare for an invasion.

Taiwanese foreign minister says China drills part of a game-plan for invasion https://t.co/2BjXS686TM pic.twitter.com/NwbmkuYENx

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 9, 2022

“China has used the drills in its military playbook to prepare for the invasion of Taiwan,” Wu said. “It is conducting large-scale military exercises and missile launches, as well as cyber-attacks, disinformation, and economic coercion, in an attempt to weaken public morale in Taiwan.”

Aug. 9, 07:59 China’s drills around Taiwan continue, says Chinese military

Chinese military continues to carry out exercises on Tuesday, the military says, Reuters reports.

China military: continue to hold drills around Taiwan on Tuesday https://t.co/hsN2RdvAXZ pic.twitter.com/1ehOGYiUzp

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 9, 2022

The focus, according to the military, is now be on blockades and resupply logistics.

Aug. 8, 11:51 China announces new military drills around Taiwan

A day after the scheduled end to China’s largest-ever military drills around Taiwan, August 7, Chinese military announces new military drills around Taiwan.

China's military announces new round of drills near Taiwan over Nancy Pelosi’s visit https://t.co/DPUNEP22nn pic.twitter.com/aMy0d8wU7f

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) August 8, 2022

As Reuters reports, China’s military said it would “conduct joint drills focusing on anti-submarine and sea assault operations.”

Aug. 7, 16:52 China concludes unprecedented military drills after four days

Chinese military ends the four-day military exercises around Taiwan (the largest to date), triggered by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s historic visit to Taipei (the first visit by US high-level official in 25 years).

China concludes Taiwan drills with ‘island saturation attack’, ‘bomber deterrence flights’ @spatranobis https://t.co/wVtTgBhPta

— Hindustan Times (@HindustanTimes) August 7, 2022

Aug. 7, 04:42 Chinese military continues to cross median line

In Sunday’s drills, Taiwan’s defence ministry detected 66 Chinese aircraft and 14 ships carrying out military exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait (unofficial buffer zone separating China and Taiwan), the ministry told Reuters.

TAIPEI, Aug 7 (Reuters) – Taiwan's defence ministry said it had detected 66 Chinese air force planes and 14 Chinese warships conducting activities in and around the Taiwan Strait on Sunday.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) August 7, 2022

Aug. 6, 02:13 China warns Australia against involvement

Chinese embassy in Australia condemns a joint statement from Australia, US and Japan condemning China’s launching of missiles in Japan’s exclusive economic zones and calling for an end to military drills.

#Breaking Australia, Japan and the United States issued a joint statement in the wake of the 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting. The three sides condemned China's launch of ballistic missiles, and urged Beijing to immediately cease military operations. pic.twitter.com/CjEU0dr4Pl

— Bang Xiao 萧邦 (@BangXiao_) August 6, 2022

“It is absolutely unacceptable for the finger-pointing on China’s justified actions to safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity. We firmly oppose and sternly condemn this,” Chinese embassy spokesperson says.

China’s embassy erupts after FM Penny Wong joined the US and Japan in condemning Beijing’s blasting of 11 ballistic missiles towards Taiwan.

Says China “the victim”.

Says Australia should remember behavior of “Japan’s Fascists”.

Says it is the “US that should be condemned”. pic.twitter.com/ApNmZtcmrM

— Will Glasgow (@wmdglasgow) August 6, 2022

Aug. 6, 20:41 White House: China’s drills are “provocative” and “irresponsible”

According to Reuters, a White House spokesperson says China is using military drills to “change the status quo.”

White House condemns China’s ‘irresponsible’ overreaction to Pelosi’s Taipei stopoverhttps://t.co/DnqTWltNO1 pic.twitter.com/iB31G54Tui

— The Washington Times (@WashTimes) August 5, 2022

“These activities are a significant escalation in China’s efforts to change the status quo. They are provocative, irresponsible, and raise the risk of miscalculation,” the spokesperson said. “They are also at odds with our long-standing goal of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, which is what the world expects.”

Aug. 6, 15:34 China accuses US of interfering in its internal affairs

In a tweet published Saturday, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying writes that the US should have stopped US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and that it should “stop showing muscles at China’s doorsteps,” accusing it of interfering with China’s internal affairs.

Talking about "responsible" @StateDept, the US should have stopped #Pelosi's visit to #Taiwan and stop showing muscles at China’s doorsteps, stop interfering in China’s internal affairs,…

— Hua Chunying 华春莹 (@SpokespersonCHN) August 6, 2022

Aug. 6, 14:11 Chinese planes cross median line again, Taiwan scrambles jets

After 14 China’s aircraft cross the Taiwan strait median line on Saturday, Taiwan’s defence ministry announces it is scrambling jets to warn away the Chinese planes.

Aug. 6, 11:31 China continues drills around Taiwan “as planned”

The Chinese army announces it is continuing military drills north, southwest and east of Taiwan, Reuters reports.

The focus, according to the People’s Liberation Army, is now on testing land strike and sea assault capabilities. Earlier on Saturday, Taiwan’s ministry of defence said it believes China was simulating an attack on Taiwan.

Taiwan accuses China of ‘simulating’ invasion as military drills continue https://t.co/ipkypFwV5d pic.twitter.com/7nXjokDrlN

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) August 6, 2022

Aug. 5, 07:23 Senior Taiwanese official dies of heart attack

Senior official leading Taiwan’s missile production program Ou Yang Li-hsing is found dead in a hotel in southern Taiwan, local media report.

Taiwan official leading missile production died of heart attack – official media https://t.co/SUCW0xrbAU pic.twitter.com/D8RhCYREk3

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 6, 2022

Ou Yang Li-hsing was the deputy head of the Taiwan defence ministry’s research and development unit and died of heart attack at 57, according to official reports.

Reuters’ Taiwan correspondent writes that authorities say “there was no sign of an external intrusion in the hotel room of 57-year-old Ou Yang.”

A senior official leading Taiwan's missile production program died of a heart attack, according to official media. Authorities said there was no sign of an external intrusion in the hotel room of 57-year-old Ou Yang

— Yimou Lee (@YimouLee) August 6, 2022

Aug. 5, 06:11 Chinese military carries out attack drills, says Taiwan

Chinese planes and ships carry out simulation attack drills on the main island, according to Taiwan’s ministry of defence.

Taiwan says Chinese planes, ships carry out attack simulation exercise https://t.co/OjAooGNw8w pic.twitter.com/gJpKeDxKQK

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 6, 2022

The ministry adds that several of these aircraft and ships crossed the median line again this morning.

Multiple PLA craft were detected around Taiwan Strait, some have crossed the median line. Possible simulated attack against HVA. #ROCArmedForces have utilized alert broadcast, aircraft in CAP, patrolling naval vessels, and land-based missile systems in response to this situation.

— 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C. (@MoNDefense) August 6, 2022

Aug. 5, 13:41 68 Chinese planes and 13 ships cross the median line

According to Taiwan’s ministry of defence, 68 Chinese planes and 13 warships had crossed the median line today, the unofficial but previously respected buffer between Taiwan and China.

TAIPEI, Aug 5 (Reuters) – Taiwan's defence ministry said on Friday a total of 68 Chinese military aircraft and 13 navy ships were conducting missions in the sensitive Taiwan Strait and some of them have "deliberately" crossed an unofficial buffer separating the two sides.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) August 5, 2022

Aug. 5, 12:10 China stops cooperating with US on multiple issues, including climate change

China’s foreign ministry announces it is stopping dialogue with the US on a range of issues.

JUST IN: China says it will halt all talks with the US over military and climate change issues following Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan https://t.co/A0mA9MXalO pic.twitter.com/yzyXGoluc9

— Bloomberg (@business) August 5, 2022

This includes climate talks, military dialogue, cooperation on crime as well as maritime safety mechanisms and relationships on immigration and anti-drug policies, Reuters reports.

Aug. 5, 11:41 White House summons Chinese ambassador

The US summons the Chinese ambassador to the White House, the Washington Post reports.

Chinese ambassador called to White House amid tensions over Pelosi Taiwan visit https://t.co/2bT3X23hjU pic.twitter.com/34fD794II6

— The Hill (@thehill) August 5, 2022

“After China’s actions overnight, we summoned Ambassador Qin Gang to the White House to démarche him about the PRC’s provocative actions,” the White House writes in a statement.

Aug. 5, 10:33 China to sanction Pelosi over visit

Chinese foreign ministry announces it will impose sanctions against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her relatives because of her “vicious and provocative” trip to Taiwan, which marked the most senior US politician visit to the island in 25 years and prompted drills by the Chinese military.

China sanctions US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over #Taiwan visit- foreign ministry, reports AFP

Track updates https://t.co/baATDJhoky pic.twitter.com/O14FhQwhz5

— Hindustan Times (@htTweets) August 5, 2022

“Despite China’s serious concerns and firm opposition, Pelosi insisted on visiting Taiwan, seriously interfering in China’s internal affairs, undermining China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, trampling on the one-China policy, and threatening the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait,” Chinese foreign ministry said.

Aug. 5, 10:08 Blinken warns against China’s “provocative” actions

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken tells reporters at the ASEAN Regional Forum meeting that “there was no possible justification” for what China did in response to Pelosi’s visit, which he describes as “peaceful.”

In the Photo: US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken delivers a speech on U.S. foreign policy at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C.

Photo Credit: State Department/Ron Przysucha.

Blinken also warns against China’s “provocative” actions that he says could escalate and destabilize the region.

Aug. 5, 07:29 Missiles fly over Taiwan for the first time, says China

Chinese missiles reportedly fly over Taiwan as part of the latest drill, marking the first time they cross the island.

Taiwan slams 'evil neighbour' China after missiles fly over island https://t.co/HB0sUVAXzP pic.twitter.com/xMufnXhU4K

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 5, 2022

“Our exercises this time included live-firing tests, and it was the first time they crossed Taiwan island,” says professor at Chinese National Defence University Meng Xiangqing.

Aug. 5, 06:34 Taiwan dispatches ships and planes

After Chinese vessels and planes crossed the median line this morning, Taiwan’s ministry of defence says it has deployed missile systems and dispatched ships and planes.

In the Photo: Taiwanese President Official Photo Credit: Wang Yu Ching/Office of the President.

Aug. 5, 06:11 Chinese ships and planes cross median line

Multiple Chinese ships and planes cross the median line again, Taiwan’s ministry of defence announces.

Multiple PLA aircraft and vessels were detected participating in drills around Taiwan Strait and have crossed the median line. #ROCArmedForces have utilized alert broadcast, aircraft in CAP, patrolling naval vessels, and land-based missile systems in response to this situation. pic.twitter.com/lVpRWCZxhm

— 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C. (@MoNDefense) August 5, 2022

According to Reuters’ source in Taiwan, “around 10 Chinese navy ships crossed the median line and remained in the area on Friday morning, and about 20 Chinese military aircraft briefly crossed the median line.”

Aug. 5, 04:28 Pelosi: China will not isolate Taiwan

Following her historic visit to Taiwan, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the US will not allow Bejing to isolate Taiwan.

As our Delegation concludes our visit to the Indo-Pacific, we return strengthened and informed by our travels.

Join us live for insight into how we will continues working to build a free and open Indo-Pacific upon returning to the United States. https://t.co/DnV5p729jC

— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) August 5, 2022

“They may try to keep Taiwan from visiting or participating in other places, but they will not isolate Taiwan by preventing us to travel there,” Pelosi tells reporters at a press conference in Tokyo.

Aug. 5, 03:41 Japan: China’s drills a “serious problem” for national security

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemns China’s drills around Taiwan and says they are a “serious problem that impacts our national security and the safety of our citizens.”

#UPDATE Japan's PM Fumio Kishida condemns China's firing of ballistic missiles during military drills around Taiwan, five of which Tokyo believes landed in its exclusive economic zone.

It is a "serious problem that impacts our national security and the safety of our citizens" pic.twitter.com/4lLbnA75Z6

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) August 5, 2022

“China’s actions this time around have a serious impact on the peace and stability of our region and the international community,” Kishida tells reporters.

Aug. 4, 15:54 Tokyo protests to China after missiles hit its EEZ

“We have protested strongly through diplomatic channels,” Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kish tells reporters after five ballistic missiles, launched by China, reportedly fell in Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

Japan protests after Chinese missiles land in its exclusive economic zone https://t.co/kFW40iF581 pic.twitter.com/p5ZROGdlqQ

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 4, 2022

“To have five Chinese missiles fall within Japan’s EEZ like this is a first,” Kishi adds.

Aug. 4, 15:25 President Tsai Ing-wen: Taiwan will not provoke, but it will defend itself

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen says that while Taiwan will not provoke, it will “defend itself.”

“We are calm, rational and not provocative but will not shirk,” she adds, describing China’s military exercises as “irresponsible” to both Taiwan and the international community.

Aug. 4, 14:33 NATO Chief: China “should not overreact” to Pelosi visit

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says China should not overreact to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.

In the Photo: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaking at a press conference. Photo Credit: NATO.

“The visit of Nancy Pelosi is no reason for China to overreact or threaten Taiwan nor to use threatening rhetoric,” Stoltenberg said.

Aug. 4, 14:16 Five Chinese missiles land in Japan’s exclusive economic zone

Five ballistic missiles launched by China land in Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), says Japanese defense minister Nobuo Kishi, adding that it is the first such incident in Japan.

#UPDATE Ballistic missiles fired by China are believed to have landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone for the first time, Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi said Thursday.

Tourists on Pingtan Island look at the smoke trail from Chinese projectiles pic.twitter.com/ZTif3LePvZ

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) August 4, 2022

“China seems to have launched nine ballistic missiles between around 15:00 and past 16:00 today. Five of them are presumed to have landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ),” Japanese defense ministry says.

Aug. 4, 13:52 US reconnaissance plane seen flying over the South China Sea

An American reconnaissance aircraft, used to collect data on ballistic targets, was spotted flying over the South China Sea.

Aug. 4, 13:34 Chinese state media shares video of missiles launched at Taiwan waters

WATCH: PLA Eastern Theater Command Rocket Force launched conventional missiles to designated waters in the east of the island of Taiwan on Thu pic.twitter.com/WpFURLeN8X

— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) August 4, 2022

Aug. 4, 13:26 Taiwan condemns China’s drills and missile launches

Taiwan “strongly condemns” China’s military exercise and missile launches, the country’s foreign ministry writes in a statement.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) of the Republic of China (Taiwan) strongly condemns the Chinese government for following the example of North Korea in wilfully test-firing missiles into waters near other countries, and demands that China exercise self-restraint”, the statement reads.

Aug. 4, 13:01 Russia backs China: Pelosi’s visit “an unnecessary provocation,” Kremlin says

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accuses the US of provoking tensions and defends China’s actions, saying military drills are “China’s sovereign right.”

Kremlin says China has the right to hold military drills around Taiwan https://t.co/AMwwzC8Lf9 pic.twitter.com/sYIVdWIjQ2

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 4, 2022

“The tension in the region and around Taiwan was provoked… by the visit of Nancy Pelosi,” Peskov said. “It was an absolutely unnecessary visit and an unnecessary provocation.”

Aug. 4, 12:59 China cancels meeting with Japan

Chinese foreign ministry says the meeting between its Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Japanese counterpart has been canceled.

The meeting was supposed to take place in Cambodia as part of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) event and was canceled following G7 ministers’ calls on China to end the dispute peacefully.

Aug. 4, 12:51 China launches 11 Dongfeng missiles into waters near Taiwan

According to the Taiwan Ministry of Defense, China launched 11 Dongfeng ballistic missiles into waters near Taiwan today.

Taiwan says China has launched 11 Dongfeng ballistic missiles into waters off the island's northern, southern and eastern coasts, as Beijing continues its biggest show of force in the region in decades. pic.twitter.com/EJ37cbFy38

— DW News (@dwnews) August 4, 2022

As the Guardian points out, the last time this happened was in 1996.

Aug. 4, 12:42 China blocks Taiwanese citrus fruits and fish imports (August 4)

Chinese government blocks imports of citrus fruits and mackerel fish from Taiwan, but avoids limiting imports of processor chips that Chinese factories need to assemble cell phones and other electronics.

Aug. 4, 12:36 Taiwan cancels flights due to China’s drills

Government of Taiwan cancels a number of passenger flights as a result of China’s military drills.

Taiwan has canceled airline flights as the Chinese navy fire artillery near the island in retaliation for a top American lawmaker’s visit, but the possible impact on shipments of processor chips and other goods needed by global industries was unclear. https://t.co/BGH07dnwgU

— The Associated Press (@AP) August 4, 2022

Aug. 4, 11:51 Chinese military gets closer to Taiwan than in 1996

China's military exercises around Taiwan in August 2022 and March 1996 (Third Taiwan Strait crisis). This time, some exercise areas overlap with Taiwan's territorial waters, an apparent escalation. pic.twitter.com/egw4hyu5U5

— Duan Dang (@duandang) August 2, 2022

Aug. 4, 11:25 Taiwan: China launches ballistic missiles into waters around the Island

Taiwan defense ministry says several Dongfeng ballistic missiles were launched into Taiwanese waters in the northeast and southwest.

Aug. 4, 09:48 China launches two missiles near Taiwanese islands

According to Taiwan, China launched two missiles near Taiwan’s Matsu islands (off the coast of China).

China launches two missiles as Taiwanese military says it is 'preparing for war' but not seeking it | Live updates

— Sky News (@SkyNews) August 4, 2022

These drills, Taiwan says, invade Taiwan’s territorial space, violating UN rules and challenging air and sea navigation.

Aug. 4, 09:43 Chinese ships cross Strait median line

Taiwanese official tells Reuters that around 10 Chinese ships briefly crossed the Strait median line separating China and Taiwan.

Chinese navy ships and military aircraft briefly crossed the Taiwan Strait median line on Thursday morning, a Taiwan source briefed on the matter told Reuters on Thursday.#china #taiwan https://t.co/Q1MWIK5ZEC

— Economic Times (@EconomicTimes) August 4, 2022

Aug. 4, 09:38 Taiwan military: “Preparing for war without seeking war”

In a statement, Taiwan’s defense ministry says its military is on high alert as the country prepares for war without seeking it.

“The Ministry of National Defence stresses that it will uphold the principle of preparing for war without seeking war, and with an attitude of not escalating conflict and causing disputes,” the statement reads.

Aug 4, 09:26 China begins its largest-ever military drills around Taiwan

In response to Pelosi’s visit, the Chinese military launches exercises by its navy, air force and other departments in six zones around Taiwan.

China begins a series of military drills in Taiwan Strait as a response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's highly controversial visit to Taiwan pic.twitter.com/Q42LvMdwfi

— TRT World Now (@TRTWorldNow) August 4, 2022

Aug. 3, 18:59 G7 urges China to resolve dispute by “peaceful means”

G7 foreign ministers say there is “no justification” to use Nancy Pelosi’s visit as a pretext for “aggressive military activity,” calling on China to resolve tensions peacefully.

In the Photo: G7 Foreign and Development Ministers meeting in Liverpool, United Kingdom, December 12, 2021. Photo Credit: US State Department/Ron Przysucha.

Aug. 3, 18:56 North Korea “vehemently denounces” interference by “external forces”

“We vehemently denounce any external force’s interference in the issue of Taiwan, and fully support the Chinese government’s just stand to resolutely defend the sovereignty of the country and territorial integrity,” North Korean government spokesperson said.

Aug. 3, 16:46 Chinese jets enter Taiwan’s air defense zone

More than 20 Chinese aircraft cross the Taiwan Strait median line that separates the island from China, Taiwanese defense ministry reports.

NEW: 27 Chinese warplanes enter Taiwan’s air defence zone: Taipeihttps://t.co/DmYuI6qlzJ

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) August 4, 2022

Aug. 3, 14:11 Chinese diplomacy chief warns: “Those who offend China will be punished”

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi tells reporters following Pelosi’s departure: “Those who play with fire will perish by it and those who offend China will be punished.”

#Latest Wang Yi on #Pelosi's #Taiwan trip: Those who offend China will be punished –bit.ly/3OTM07p pic.twitter.com/l4prJQ75Dh

— Zhang Meifang张美芳 (@CGMeifangZhang) August 3, 2022

Yi accuses the United States of “violating China’s sovereignty,” describing the situation as a “complete farce.”

Aug. 3, 11:35 Nancy Pelosi leaves Taiwan

Following her historic visit to Taiwan, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi boards a plane in Taipei and departs the country.

VIDEO: A plane carrying US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi leaves Taiwan as she continues her Asia tour pic.twitter.com/ekQwqmGNQ6

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) August 3, 2022

During her stay, Pelosi said the goal of the trip was to make it “unequivocally clear” that the US would “not abandon” Taiwan. Her trip marks the highest-level US official visit in 25 years.

I led a Congressional delegation to Taiwan to make crystal clear that America stands with the people of Taiwan – and all those committed to Democracy and human rights.

Check out this video of our historic visit to Taipei. pic.twitter.com/TON6zB3x4s

— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) August 3, 2022

Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed here by the authors are their own, not those of Impakter.com — In the Featured Photo: Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen addressing the Military of Taiwan. Photo credit: Wang Yu Ching/Office of the President.

impakter.com · by Impakter Editorial Board · September 1, 2022

11. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Is Kindling for World War III

An ominous warning.

Again, I wonder about the 24 nuclear power plants in South Korea and what will become of them when north Korea attacks.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Is Kindling for World War III

Civilian nuclear plants in war zones are becoming ticking radiological bombs.

The National Interest · by Henry Sokolski · August 31, 2022

As the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) readies itself to visit the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine, Western officials are sighing a sigh of relief. However, there is a worry they have yet to consider—how civilian nuclear plants in war zones are becoming radiological bombs that could ignite World War III.

Seem shrill? Late last week, the chairman of the Select Committee on Defense in the British House of Commons warned that “any deliberate damage causing potential radiation leak to a Ukrainian nuclear reactor would be a breach of NATO’s Article 5.” Article V of the NATO treaty requires all signatories to come to the defense of any alliance members that suffer an armed attack.

How imminent might a radiological release be? Late Thursday, all external power to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was cut off. The only source of electricity was the plant’s emergency diesel generators, which had no more than five days of fuel to power the plant’s essential safety and fuel-cooling electric water pumps. Had those generators run short of fuel (which could be exacerbated by Russian pilfering) and the one remaining power line not been reconnected, a loss of coolant accident (think Fukushima) could have ensued in eighty minutes.

Ukrainian authorities understand this. That’s why last week they distributed iodine tablets to Ukrainians to reduce thyroid cancers if the Zaporizhzhia plant should blow. Romania, a NATO nation, also grasps this: Earlier in the month, its health minister encouraged Romanians to pick up free iodine pills at their local pharmacies. Last week, Romania’s neighbor, Moldova, imported one million tablets for its own population.

What these states appreciate is not only that accidents are possible in war, but that Russian president Vladimir Putin might intentionally assault Ukraine’s nuclear plants turning them into “prepositioned nuclear weapons” whose dispersal of radioactivity could force evacuations and frighten Ukraine’s NATO supporters to relent. They also understand that the war’s not over: there are nine other Ukrainian power plants that Putin could attack in western and southern Ukraine.

And what is Washington’s response? It has two big ideas, both nearly seventy years out of date. The first is to get IAEA inspectors to visit. I have supported this if it helps establish that the Zaporizhzhia plant is still Ukraine’s, not Russia’s. But no one should be under any illusions. The IAEA was founded seventy years ago to promote nuclear power and to conduct occasional nuclear audits, not to physically protect plants against military attacks or to demilitarize zones around them. The IAEA can’t provide the Zaporizhzhia plant with any defenses, nor will it risk keeping IAEA staff on-site to serve as defensive tripwires.

The second idea also hails from the Atoms for Peace Program of the early 1950s—build nuclear power plants everywhere, including in Poland, Romania, and, unbelievably, Ukraine. President Joe Biden announced a U.S.-subsidized six-reactor project for Poland three weeks after Russian military forces fired upon and occupied Zaporizhzhia. The State Department then followed in May with details on the construction of an American small modular reactor and of a related U.S. taxpayer-funded nuclear simulator in Romania. Finally, in July, U.S.-headquartered Westinghouse announced a joint agreement with Ukraine’s state-owned nuclear utility to build at least two reactors in Ukraine.

The unspoken assumption here is that Putin will never strike another reactor in Ukraine, Romania, or Poland. Maybe. But after condemning the West for backing Ukraine’s views regarding Zaporizhzhia, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev recently warned that there were reactors throughout Europe and that similar “incidents are possible there as well.” And it’s not just Europe. South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan also have reactors at risk. Since Russia’s occupation of Zaporizhzhia, each has increased planning and drills against Chinese and North Korean military threats to their nuclear plants.

Washington should pay attention. It should take several steps but two of the most important are dialing in “peaceful” reactors as prepositioned nuclear weapons into its strategic deterrence strategy and rethinking its enthusiasm for exporting reactors even into war zones. The first task requires clarifying when, and, if it ever, it would make sense for U.S. forces to fire on reactors overseas. It also entails determining how our forces might best deter and protect against attacks on friends’ reactors meant to harm or coerce them.

The second task demands examining what can be done physically to protect existing reactors overseas where U.S. troops are or might be deployed. It also requires assessing how prudent constructing new nuclear plants might be in or near likely war zones and where those zones might lie.

We cannot ask the IAEA to do this. It will not. But if we are serious about preventing the worst, including a nuclear-powered Sarajevo, we must.

Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, served as Deputy for Nonproliferation in the Cheney Pentagon and is author of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future (2019).

Image: Reuters.

The National Interest · by Henry Sokolski · August 31, 2022

12. A Draft for Russia’s Army? Putin Opts for Domestic Stability Instead.

A Draft for Russia’s Army? Putin Opts for Domestic Stability Instead.

nytimes.com · August 31, 2022

Western officials are puzzled by the Russian leader’s decision to avoid mass conscription. But analysts say he is intent on maintaining a sense of normalcy to prevent any public backlash.

Russian conscripts boarding a train to their garrisons in Omsk, Russia, in June. Conscripts serving their required year of military service are not fighting in Ukraine, according to the Kremlin.Credit...Alexey Malgavko/Reuters

President Vladimir V. Putin says Russia is fighting for its very existence in Ukraine, taking on a country that is conspiring with the West to destroy his nation. In high-octane talk shows on state television, the war is presented as a continuation of the Soviet Union’s fight for survival against Nazi Germany.

But if the battle is existential, the Kremlin’s actions do not bear that out. Six months into the biggest land war in Europe since World War II, Russia continues to wage it with a military that is essentially at peacetime strength — even as the invasion’s loudest cheerleaders increasingly clamor for Mr. Putin to declare a draft and put his nation on a war footing.

The debate over a draft has grown more urgent in recent weeks as Ukraine has gained momentum on the southern front and the killing of an ultranationalist commentator in a car bombing outside Moscow has magnified the voices of Russia’s most radical hawks. To those hawks, the Kremlin — which continues to refer to the war as a “special military operation” and insists it is going “according to plan” — is underestimating the enemy and lulling Russian society into a false sense of security.

Mr. Putin, by all accounts, is trying to avoid declaring a draft, intent on maintaining a sense of normalcy in Russian cities to prevent any public backlash. On Tuesday, his spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, declared in a regular conference call with reporters that the “special military operation” was continuing “methodically” and “in accordance with the plans.”

“All its goals will be achieved,” he said.

That need to preserve a sense of domestic stability reflects the limits of Mr. Putin’s power and, some analysts say, the superficial nature of support for the war in Russia. It has also caused tensions among his supporters to break into the open, with some accusing the Kremlin of keeping much-needed reinforcements from reaching the battlefield in order to preserve the oblivious contentment of the urban middle class.

In a phone interview, one of the invasion’s most vocal proponents, Aleksandr Borodai, a pro-Putin member of Parliament who helped lead the Kremlin-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014, said it was a “glaring injustice” that life in Moscow went on “just as it did before the beginning of the special military operation.”

“They’re losing their health, sometimes dying,” he said of Russia’s forces. “But the whole rest of the country, in whose interests the people at the front are fighting, is living an absolutely relaxed life and many people think that nothing is happening at all.”

While the Kremlin released an order last week to increase the target size of the military by 137,000, analysts said it appeared that Mr. Putin was still intent on adding to the ranks by aggressive recruitment rather than by large-scale conscription. Russian men ages 18 to 27 are required to serve in the military for a year, but those conscripts are not being sent to Ukraine, officials insist.

Mr. Borodai, who now leads an organization of pro-Russian volunteer fighters and says he is frequently at the front, said he favored a draft that would add 300,000 to 500,000 soldiers to the battlefield. Otherwise, he said, Russian units would continue to be outnumbered against a Ukrainian Army whose ranks have been boosted by conscription, with Ukrainian men of military age barred from leaving the country.

“The situation is such that we are often going on the offensive when there are fewer of us and more of the enemy,” he said. “This is causing the war to drag out. The number of victims is rising on both sides.”

Western officials are increasingly puzzled by Mr. Putin’s decision to avoid mass conscription. American and British military officials have estimated that Russia has suffered up to 80,000 casualties in Ukraine, including dead and wounded, since Mr. Putin ordered the invasion in February. American officials have repeatedly said they believe the extent of Russia’s losses is such that Moscow cannot achieve its strategic goal of taking over more of Ukraine without requiring a draft.

A pro-Kremlin political analyst, Sergei Markov, said Mr. Putin’s political strategy was simple: “Let people live their lives.”

“One of Putin’s main philosophical paradigms from the very beginning, when he first came to power, has been: Leave the people alone,” Mr. Markov said in a phone interview. “Ideally, they must not notice this special military operation almost at all. It shouldn’t affect their lives in any way.”

Indeed, when Mr. Putin launched the invasion, it seemed that he had violated his two-decade, unspoken contract with Russians that traded political passivity on their part for rising living standards. But Western sanctions have failed to bring down the Russian economy; a crackdown on the opposition and the news media has silenced dissent; and while thousands of middle-class Russians fled the country — in part because they feared conscription — many more stayed behind and sought to preserve the status quo.

Support for the war is “silent, passive,” said Denis Volkov, the director of the Levada Center, an independent pollster in Moscow. “I think that the authorities understand the mood and this attitude very well.”

Russians are paying less and less attention to the war, he said. When Levada asked Russians in March to name the recent events that they most remembered, 75 percent mentioned the war in Ukraine; asked the same question in July, 32 percent did.

The blasé attitude is infuriating the invasion’s most ardent supporters, including pro-war bloggers with hundreds of thousands of followers on the social messaging app Telegram.

One ridiculed the Russians who are afraid of conscription as “owners of electric scooters and lovers of raspberry frappés.” Another, Dmitri Steshin, described his horror when returning to Moscow from Ukraine at seeing the highways jammed with “fat little vacationers” under a government whose strategy was “pretending that everything is fine.”

The calls for an escalation of the war grew last week after the killing of Daria Dugina, a pro-war commentator. The Russian government said Ukrainian intelligence had directed her assassination — a claim Ukraine has denied. Her father, the ultranationalist Aleksandr Dugin, said on state television that the country needed to “wake up” and “unite” so that her “sacrifice will not be in vain.”

The killing, coming days after an audacious Ukrainian attack on a Russian base in Crimea, infuriated hard-right nationalists in Russia and led Ms. Dugina’s supporters to call for revenge. But there was no significant escalation in the fighting by Russia.

Mr. Borodai, a former leader of the Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, insisted that even without a draft, Russia would continue pummeling Ukrainian forces until their losses become “psychologically and physically unbearable.”

While the Kremlin is not conscripting Russians to fight in Ukraine, its proxy forces in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory are pressing local residents into service. It is also conducting a “stealth mobilization” that uses aggressive recruitment tactics, financial incentives and mercenaries to fill personnel shortfalls.

Still, analysts predict those measures will prove insufficient.

“Russia is doing everything it can to avoid mobilizing,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. “If the conflict continues at this level or expands, eventually, they’re going to run out of options.”

Julian E. Barnes and Alina Lobzina contributed reporting.

nytimes.com · August 31, 2022

13. Reported sexual assaults across US military increase by 13%

How can we stop this terrible criminal conduct within our force?

Reported sexual assaults across US military increase by 13%

AP · by LOLITA C. BALDOR · August 31, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — Reports of sexual assaults across the U.S. military jumped by 13% last year, driven by significant increases in the Army and the Navy as bases began to move out of pandemic restrictions and public venues reopened, The Associated Press has learned.

Mirroring the increase in those reports is the disclosure that close to 36,000 service members said in a confidential survey that they had experienced unwanted sexual contact — a dramatic increase over the roughly 20,000 who said that in a similar 2018 survey, U.S. defense and military officials said.

The latest numbers are certain to anger lawmakers on Capitol Hill who have been critical of the Pentagon’s efforts to get a handle on sexual crimes and misconduct.

According to officials, the overall increase is largely fueled by a nearly 26% jump in reports involving Army soldiers. It’s the largest increase for that service since 2013, when such reports went up by 51%.

The increase in Navy reports was about 9%, the Air Force was a bit more than 2% and the Marine Corps was less than 2%, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the reporting has not yet been made public.

The big increase is especially troublesome for the Army, which is struggling to meet its recruiting goals and is expected to miss the target by at least 10,000 — or by anywhere from 18% to 25% — at the end of September. Army leaders have acknowledged that it is important for parents and others who influence recruits to feel comfortable that their son or daughter is safe and will be taken care of in the service.

COVID-19

Army officials said the numbers are alarming and that they certainly could have an impact on recruting, if parents believe their youth are at risk of assaults. They said Army leaders saw the growing numbers last year and began trying to implement new programs. Already, they said, some programs are working and the sexual harassment and assault numbers have been coming down this year.

COVID-19 and the pandemic restrictions make year-to-year comparisons complicated. Officials said they do not have enough data to determine if — or how much — the pandemic played a role in the higher reporting and survey numbers.

The Pentagon and the military services have long struggled to come up with programs to prevent sexual assaults and to encourage reporting. While the military has made inroads in making it easier and safer for service members to come forward, it has had far less success reducing the assaults, which have increased nearly every year since 2006.

Army leaders said they’ve seen some results with a training program that soldiers get when they report to their first duty station. It is rolled out right away, and has soldiers acting out dangerous situations and emphasizes training on how to respond. They also said they are improving evaluation programs that grade unit leaders, including randomly picking peers and others to do the assessments.

The double-digit overall increase comes after two years of relatively small increases in reports filed by or involving service members. In the budget year ending September 2020, reports of sexual assault and unwanted sexual contact edged up by 1%, as much of the world largely shut down due to the pandemic. The previous year, reports went up by about 3% — a substantial improvement over 2018, which also saw a 13% increase.

The widespread restrictions on travel and movement for the military continued during fall 2020 and the early part of 2021, and many businesses, restaurants and bars were shut down or had limited service. Things began to open up as more people were vaccinated in the summer and fall, but it’s also not clear whether that greater freedom contributed to the increase in assault reports.

The Pentagon releases a report every year on the number of sexual assaults reported by or about troops. But because sexual assault is a highly underreported crime, the department began to do a confidential survey every two years to get a clearer picture of the problem. The 2018 survey found that more than 20,000 service members said they experienced some type of sexual assault, but only one-third of them filed a formal report.

The latest report, expected to be publicly released Thursday, estimates that about 35,800 service members experienced some type of sexual assault in the previous year, based on the confidential survey. That means that only about one in every five service members reported an incident that happened in the previous year.

Every year as many as 10% of the assaults that service members reported happened before they joined the military.

Officials familiar with the findings said survey respondents also reported increases in hostility in the workplace, as well as more sexual harassment, which can sometimes lead to other sexual assaults or misconduct. They said the survey revealed that about 8% of all women and 1.5% of men in the service said they had experienced some form of unwanted sexual contact.

Officials said the survey suggested that, based on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a woman’s chance of being sexually assaulted in the military was about the same as a woman in the general population. But for men, the risk for those in the military is much lower than in U.S. society.

Defense officials have argued that an increase in reported assaults is a positive trend because so many people are reluctant to report it, both in the military and in society as a whole. Greater reporting, they say, shows there is more confidence in the reporting system and greater comfort with the support for victims.

It’s unclear, however, whether the increased reports last year actually represent a growing problem or whether those who say they were assaulted were just more willing to come forward.

The Pentagon has been under persistent pressure from Congress to improve prevention and prosecutions. Lawmakers acted late last year to take some prosecution authority out of the hands of commanders and instead use independent prosecutors.

Victims rights advocates and others have argued that service members don’t trust the system and are often unwilling to go to their commanders with a complaint for fear of retribution. They also worry that commanders may not press ahead with some cases if they know the accused. Members of Congress argued that using independent prosecutors would make the process more fair, and make victims more comfortable coming forward.

AP · by LOLITA C. BALDOR · August 31, 2022

14. Illia Ponomarenko: Stop whining about the war in Ukraine

A message for Ukraine from a Ukrainian journalist (see bio). (but there is a message for us as well).

Excerpts:

Foreign military assistance is indeed still far from enough to surely win this war. But six months ago, we could only dream of having M142 HIMARS systems. Right now, they continue wiping out Russian ammo dumps and mercenary headquarters all along the front line.

It is the blood of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that has made a difference. Along with the effort of so many other people in Ukraine and beyond who are bringing us closer to ultimate success.

So, in other words — stop whining about this war.

Whining does not help. We have already come very far, and much more is yet to be done. A lot of artillery pieces and tons of munitions are yet to be agreed on and delivered, and a lot of issues within the Ukrainian war effort are yet to be exposed and fixed.

Ukraine now has an increasingly good chance to prevail, unless we decide to dive deep into self-inflicted hopelessness.

Be a part of a solution in any way you can, or get out of the way.

Illia Ponomarenko: Stop whining about the war in Ukraine

kyivindependent.com · by Illia Ponomarenko · August 17, 2022

Sometimes, it just makes sense to admit that clairvoyance is a rare gift. And that not too many people can explain the future.

Especially concerning things as complex as the largest European war since WWII.

Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine is about to cross the six-month point. It feels like we all have lived a whole life within those months, and this war keeps blowing everyone’s minds, again and again.

All life is a mystery, and we have seen quite a few things no one expected.

When global media were anticipating Ukraine’s dark fate in February, did many expect the spectacular failure of Russia’s blitzkrieg? Or that the Russian military would turn out to be very far from the forever-victorious space marine force it portrayed itself in its propaganda for decades?

Or that Russia would lose a fleet’s flagship to a nation that has no navy? Or that it would be celebrating a 10-kilometer advance, following months of fierce hostilities, as a Stalingrad-scale victory?

Or that Ukraine, using advanced Western-provided rocket systems, would pose a severe danger to Russia’s presence in Kherson, isolating its military units from supplies across the Dnipro River?

If there’s one thing that this war has taught us, it’s the following: stay away from snap judgment and bold prophecies.

Especially when it comes to “Ukraine is now doomed because of X and Y.”

Because sometimes invisible magic happens — and Russian military checkpoints in Irpin, a couple of kilometers away from my house in Kyiv, turn into abandoned heaps of sandbags over just one night.

Six months ago, just about a week before the full-scale invasion, I felt obliged to say a word or two about this “Ukraine is doomed” that was overshadowing the world media.

Ukraine’s fall was not predestined because we had our military and our people willing to fight.

We all know what happened in the following.

Instead of listening to numerous doomsday forecasts, Ukraine’s National Guard put up a real fight against Russian airborne units at the Hostomel Airfield just outside Kyiv trying to gain a foothold and attack Ukraine’s very heart.

Ironically enough, Ukraine just did not buy this “Kyiv is going to fall within 72 hours.”

Without falling into self-inflicting doubts, and putting aside those who have lost all hope, Ukraine was doing what it should, no matter what.

And here we are now, all discussing Ukraine’s possible way to retake Kherson and Melitopol and witnessing Russian airfields in Crimea wiped out by Ukrainian attacks on a daily basis.

That’s quite someprogress since February.

And yet now it's all over social media again: “Ukraine may not make it.”

Why? Because Russia is still strong, it has taken another small town in Donbas, and it’s reinforcing its Kherson garrison and “mobilizing” more mercenaries.

Yes, this war is hard at any possible level. It’s bloody, and it’s ugly.

It is true that Ukrainian soldiers and officers write Facebook posts that are full of desperation and grief for all the hell and destruction they’ve been through.

They are angry at their commanders for not doing a good job, for not providing enough artillery support, and for making their soldiers hold the ground in conditions few human beings can survive.

Ukraine has mobilized hundreds of thousands of personnel, but many are undertrained and underequipped, and their commanders are very often under-qualified.

Due to the lack of manpower for the 1,000-kilometer front line, the Ukrainian command is forced into plugging holes with Territorial Defense units — basically lightly-armed yesterday’s taxi drivers and software developers led by yesterday’s military clerks with no battlefield leadership experience.

It is also true that Ukrainian counter-battery activities are barely effective in stripping Russia of its most powerful weapon of advancement — overwhelming artillery with a vast stock of munitions available.

Ukraine still finds it hard to do anything about it. It lacks long-range artillery pieces, it lacks competent battlefield leaders, and the munitions supply coming from the West is still not enough.

Ukraine is extremely dependent on Western military supplies, and it finds it hard to get enough weapons and hardware to arm its new brigades and regiments.

The Russian wall of fire still destroys everything in its way, Ukrainian cities and defensive lines alike.

The Ukrainian infantry in trenches has to carry this terrible load on its shoulders and pay with its blood for every single day we’re not seeing any significant Russian progress. When this is over, we will spend a decade mourning our dead.

And the Ukrainian command, with its limited resources, too often makes a bid on the persistence and combat heroism of their soldiers, bringing them to extreme exhaustion.

The Ukrainian death toll is horrifying. We do not know the exact number, but based on estimates confirmed by Ukrainian officials, it’s way over 10,000 killed in action at this point. The price behind the relatively stable present situation now is beyond imaginable.

This war is a mess.

It’s foolish to imagine it as a tale of a shining knight slaying the evil dragon in just one strike with a magic sword.

Yet, it’s even more foolish to fall into despair now — given all the progress Ukraine has already made.

Over these months, we’ve made our way from the West not giving us a chance against Russia and providing us with weapons for guerrilla warfare — to the West talking about the war until victory and sending us advanced artillery, air defense, missiles, kamikaze drones, and vehicles worth billions of dollars.

We’ve made the way from Russia standing just at the gate of Kyiv to Russia hastily recruiting convicts as cannon fodder and forming poorly-trained “volunteer battalions” motivated by nothing but a chance to earn at least some money.

Russia’s offensive potential has been degraded to the point of being able to gain just very marginal, painfully slow, and barely meaningful territorial gains in some sections of the Donbas front line, where it can still create a heavy concentration of manpower and artillery.

The Battle of Donbas has been the very focus of Russia’s war effort for over four months now. Nonetheless, it’s not even close to completing the seizure of the whole region.

So no — when Russia spends weeks and enormous resources to push the Ukrainian military out of Pisky, a small ruined town outside of Donetsk — it does not mean “the Ukrainian front is collapsing,” as some would say.

And no — when the Ukrainian military decides to retreat to yet another local defensive line following a long battle, this does not mean that “Russia is winning this war.”

Because victory comes as your enemy’s military force is defeated and destroyed to the point of being unable to keep on fighting — not when you occupy a useless heap of ruins and ashes that used to be a city.

Foreign military assistance is indeed still far from enough to surely win this war. But six months ago, we could only dream of having M142 HIMARS systems. Right now, they continue wiping out Russian ammo dumps and mercenary headquarters all along the front line.

It is the blood of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that has made a difference. Along with the effort of so many other people in Ukraine and beyond who are bringing us closer to ultimate success.

So, in other words — stop whining about this war.

Whining does not help. We have already come very far, and much more is yet to be done. A lot of artillery pieces and tons of munitions are yet to be agreed on and delivered, and a lot of issues within the Ukrainian war effort are yet to be exposed and fixed.

Ukraine now has an increasingly good chance to prevail, unless we decide to dive deep into self-inflicted hopelessness.

Be a part of a solution in any way you can, or get out of the way.

Illia Ponomarenko is the defense and security reporter at the Kyiv Independent. He has reported about the war in eastern Ukraine since the conflict’s earliest days.

___________________________________

Note from the author:

Hello! My name is Illia Ponomarenko, the guy who wrote this piece for you.

I hope you found it useful and interesting. I work day and night to bring you quality stories from Ukraine, where Russia is waging the biggest war in Europe since WWII. My little homeland, Donbas, is now the site of the worst fighting. We are helping to keep the world informed about Russian aggression. But I also need help from every one of you — to support Ukrainian wartime journalism by donating to the Kyiv Independent and becoming our patron. Together, we can help bring peace to Ukraine.

kyivindependent.com · by Illia Ponomarenko · August 17, 2022

15. Ukrainian military launches offensive to retake territory from Russia

An excellent report from NPR's Frank Langfitt. I am impressed with the comments from the Ukrainian Major. I hope all artillerymen reading this can appreciate the story of soldier Artem below.

This is a very good description of the citizen soldier training and readiness and the use of captured and obsolete equipment. (And of course the all important comment here:

KOVALYOV: (Through interpreter) I have a clear feeling lately that we are being kept on artificial respiration. We are given just enough so that we do not lose and don't win. Give us enough weapons, please, and we give you our word. We will knock the enemy out of our land.

You can listen to the 7 minute report at this link: https://www.npr.org/2022/08/31/1120223444/ukrainian-military-launches-offensive-to-retake-territory-from-russia?utm_source=pocket_mylist

Ukrainian military launches offensive to retake territory from Russia

NPR · by Frank Langfitt · August 31, 2022

The Ukrainian military says it is launching an offensive in the country's south to take back territory from Russia forces and break a stalemate in the region.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

The Ukrainian military says it's launching an offensive in the country's south. They're trying to take back territory from the Russians. Ukrainian commanders say heavy weapons from the West are helping but insist they need more to succeed. NPR's Frank Langfitt reports from the southern front.

FRANK LANGFITT, BYLINE: I'm standing in a village in the Mykolaiv region one afternoon last week meeting with Ukrainian military commanders. And then our producer, Katia (ph) and I, we heard a boom.

KATIA, BYLINE: Those are...

(SOUNDBITE OF EXPLOSION)

INSKEEP: OK. We can definitely hear that. That's not far.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: Look, there's a second one.

INSKEEP: What is it? Is it - oh, they're rockets. They're firing rockets.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: Yeah.

(SOUNDBITE OF EXPLOSION)

LANGFITT: These are American HIMARS, or high mobility artillery rocket systems. They're launching from a nearby farm field and leave long, white contrails against the blue sky as they head towards Russian military targets. A Ukrainian reconnaissance soldier nicknamed Fox is watching with us. He makes a joke off mic.

FOX: Thanks for this present.

LANGFITT: You said thanks for this present. Are they helpful?

FOX: Of course.

LANGFITT: Fox wears green body armor with a knife and a walkie talkie strapped to its front. Like most soldiers I talked to here, he loves HIMARS.

FOX: Yesterday, we had the one job, and it was exactly in the point from long distance.

LANGFITT: How far was the distance?

FOX: Maybe about 40 kilometers.

LANGFITT: And you hit it right on.

FOX: Yeah, exactly.

LANGFITT: Forty kilometers is about 24 miles. In fact, the HIMARS deployed here can strike at more than twice that distance. I was last on the southern front four months ago. Back then, the Ukrainians had nowhere near that strike range. Sitting at a table nearby is Colonel Roman Kostenko. He says the new weapons are helping the Ukrainians fight back.

ROMAN KOSTENKO: (Through interpreter) After these systems hit the Russians' arms depots and bridges that connect to the city of Kherson, the enemy was forced to reduce the density of fire on our positions.

LANGFITT: He's referring to key bridges the Russians used to supply their soldiers in Kherson, a strategic port city, which fell to the Russians in March. But he says there aren't enough of these weapons to really turn the tide. Kostenko's a Ukrainian lawmaker and soldier. Since the war, he's been working as a military commander in this region, where he grew up. I last saw him here back in the spring.

How much territory have you taken in the South since we saw each other in April?

KOSTENKO: Not a lot.

LANGFITT: Not a lot.

KOSTENKO: Not a lot.

LANGFITT: Progress has been slow, sometimes an average of a mile or so a month. An anti-tank operator told me it took three months to take one village because the Russians were so well dug-in. Kostenko's grateful for all the weapons from the West but says the army here needs much more to make a big push in the south.

KOSTENKO: (Through interpreter) Russia is very resourceful. What we have now is probably 30% of what we really need in order to carry out successful offensive actions to liberate our territories.

LANGFITT: Kostenko says the troops here have had successes. He says soldiers recently took back a nearby village from the Russians. He cited the ingenuity of a Special Forces team and the element of surprise.

KOSTENKO: (Through interpreter) So they left at 3 in the morning, went to a river. The enemy mined the river bottom. And to avoid stepping on the mines, our soldiers use flippers.

LANGFITT: Kostenko also says Western long-range weapons helped batter the Russians holding the village. He pulls up a video on his phone.

KOSTENKO: It's cool. In this village, I show you.

LANGFITT: Oh, wow, that's a big explosion.

There's a giant crater in front of the school. Kostenko says that strike killed at least 20 Russian soldiers. He won't name the weapon but only says it came from what he calls our Western partners. The Ukrainians still rely on older weapons with less range to do a lot of their shelling. One morning, I went to see one.

A Ukrainian soldier is leading me through a field of dandelions. And just along the side of a hill, you can see this big white cylinder stuck into the ground. It's the remains of a cluster bomb. And we're on our way to meet a Ukrainian Howitzer team.

I come upon a rusting Howitzer, partly caked in mud.

(CROSSTALK)

LANGFITT: The crew is cleaning the firing mechanism with water and spray cans of lubricant and then the assembly. They live in a big hut they've built out of empty wooden ammunition crates. A member of the crew named Artem (ph), who wears a black Reebok T-shirt, says the Ukrainians captured the Howitzer from the Russians earlier in the war. The trophy, as he calls it, dates to 1989. Its range - just over 12 miles. The Howitzer is entirely manual. Artem spins the wheels to move the barrel up and down and from side to side.

ARTEM: (Through interpreter) This is a good weapon, but it's an old weapon. I'd like something newer, but we have what we have.

LANGFITT: In fact, it's so old the team is running out of ammunition for it, and in a few weeks, they'll retire this Cold War relic. Weapons are just one challenge the Ukrainian army faces; another - continuing to build civilians into a capable fighting force. I met Major Roman Kovalyov (ph) in the Kherson region last week. He says 90% of his battalion had no previous military experience.

ROMAN KOVALYOV: (Through interpreter) They have passionate hearts. They are ready to go into battle. However, they don't realize how little they know, and we need to find a balance between their desire and their skills.

LANGFITT: The biggest challenge in the first couple of months of the war was instilling discipline. For instance, the major sent one team out to provide cover for another.

KOVALYOV: (Through interpreter) They forgot water, night vision goggles, backpacks. Due to the fact that the guys had trouble organizing their stuff, they were half an hour late. And because of that, the second unit came under heavy fire. Thank God no one was hurt.

LANGFITT: Afterward, the team that got shelled punched out the late comers. The major says his soldiers have come a long way since then.

KOVALYOV: (Through interpreter) If we compare us from four or five months ago to today, we have improved significantly.

LANGFITT: But the major also says an improved army can only do so much against a better armed one.

KOVALYOV: (Through interpreter) I have a clear feeling lately that we are being kept on artificial respiration. We are given just enough so that we do not lose and don't win. Give us enough weapons, please, and we give you our word. We will knock the enemy out of our land.

LANGFITT: The major and other commanders here worry the West doesn't share Ukraine's goal of total victory.

KOVALYOV: (Through interpreter) I think they don't want Russia to lose. Politics is a complicated thing. It is clear that the world does not only consist of a conflict in Ukraine. There are a lot of conflicts all over the planet and a lot of geopolitical interests. There's China, Taiwan and a bunch of regions.

LANGFITT: But Major Kovalyov also says he thinks the future world order is being decided here and now in his homeland. Frank Langfitt, NPR News, in Ukraine's Kherson region.

NPR · by Frank Langfitt · August 31, 2022

16. BRICS president: Russia and India have no need for the U.S. dollar

The biggest threat to US national security may be the attack on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Lose that and we may lose our super power that makes us a superpower.

BRICS president: Russia and India have no need for the U.S. dollar

kitco.com · August 29, 2022

(Kitco News) Russia and India no longer need the U.S. dollar for mutual settlements, said BRICS International Forum President Purnima Anand.

A new mechanism has been established between the two countries, using only rubles and rupees, Anand told reporters last week.

"We have implemented the mechanism of mutual settlements in rubles and rupees, and there is no need for our countries to use the dollar in mutual settlements," Russian state news agency RIA quoted Anand as saying.

Anand added that a similar mechanism is being developed between Russia and China to eliminate the use of the greenback and employ only rubles and yuan.

This way of paying for goods gives Russia a way to go around the sanctions imposed on the country following its invasion of Ukraine.

"The BRICS countries are opening up to Russia, offering the opportunity for the country to overcome the consequences of sanctions," Anand said.

Russia has also increased its ties with India, as trade jumped fivefold over the past four decades, according to Anand. India has been importing more oil from Russia, while Moscow has stepped up purchases of agricultural products, textiles, and medicine.

India has resisted the pressure from the West to ban Russian oil. "When Russia's military operation in Ukraine began, naturally there was pressure on India to stop importing Russian oil. But the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had to reject this pressure. The Russian side was assured that supplies would not be stopped and the sanctions regime would in no way affect the relationship between our countries," Anand stated.

Putin's BRICS new currency could benefit gold and Bitcoin - analysts | #kitconews #gold #silver #finance #preciousmetals #markets #mining #investing | https://t.co/uGJFcDtaBz pic.twitter.com/yxwOS1MATI

— Kitco NEWS (@KitcoNewsNOW) August 27, 2022

Earlier this summer, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) are developing a new basket-based reserve currency.

"The issue of creating an international reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of our countries is being worked out," Putin said at the BRICS business forum at the end of June. "We are ready to openly work with all fair partners."

The five countries are also trying to create an alternative mechanism for international payments, he added.

BRICS could also see its membership expand, with Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia considering joining the group.

Over the summer, India and Russia have held discussions to accept each other's local RuPay and Mir payment systems, according to the Deccan Herald.

Analysts see this new BRICS reserve currency proposal as an alternative to the U.S. dollar and the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) currency.

"One can only think this is a move to address the perceived U.S.-hegemony of the IMF and will allow BRICS to build their own sphere of influence and unit of currency within that sphere," said ING global head of markets Chris Turner.

Russia's efforts to de-dollarize are far from new, but they accelerated following sanctions placed on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine at the end of February.

kitco.com · August 29, 2022

17. Why Washington should provide ATACMS weapons to Ukraine

This would be a game changer.

The problem here is the "extreme circumstances" could be the loss of the war. And that is likely what self deters us from providing all necessary support and weapons to Ukraine. This is something else we have to consider for the future - do our actions (or lack thereof) send the message that Putin can effectively deter us, at least partially, due to this nuclear weapons threat? How do other actors assess this and what actions might they take?

Excerpts:

Moscow has given no indication it is contemplating nuclear use against Ukraine, and likely would not do so except in the most extreme circumstances. The likelihood of Russia using a nuclear weapon against a NATO member is even lower.

Admittedly, it hardly seems fair to ask Kyiv to refrain from cross-border ATACMS strikes when Putin continues to trample on Ukrainian sovereignty and kill Ukrainian citizens. But providing Kyiv with ATACMS while restricting their use to Ukrainian territory (including in Crimea) can both help Ukraine defeat — rather than manage — Putin’s invasion while avoiding direct conflict between Russia and NATO.

Even with restrictions, providing Ukraine ATACMS is far better than not providing the weapons at all.

Why Washington should provide ATACMS weapons to Ukraine

By Ryan Brobst, John Hardie and Bradley Bowman

Aug 31, 03:34 PM

Defense News · by Ryan Brobst · August 31, 2022

The Ukrainian military announced the beginning of a much-anticipated counteroffensive on Monday, aiming to retake territory in the country’s south. Western weapons, which have helped Ukraine strike high-value targets behind the front lines as part of a strategy to degrade Russia’s ability to hold the territory it has seized, have made Kyiv’s counteroffensive possible and could be decisive in determining its outcome. That’s why Washington should provide Ukraine with the Army Tactical Missile System without delay.

U.S. provision of ATACMS would allow Kyiv to strike key logistics nodes and other high-value targets beyond the range of Ukraine’s current precision-strike capabilities. Some worry that providing the new capability to Ukraine could precipitate Russian escalation, but that risk is overstated and can be mitigated by requiring Kyiv to use ATACMS only against Russian military targets on Ukrainian territory, including the Donbas and Crimea.

Such a condition could accompany the shipment of ATACMS if the Biden administration deems it necessary. Kyiv has already proven it can responsibly and effectively employ U.S.-supplied systems ranging from Javelin missiles to the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, and Washington has good reason to believe Kyiv would employ ATACMS in the same manner.

ATACMS is a short-range ballistic missile that can be fired from HIMARS as well as from the multiple-launch rocket systems Ukraine has received from the United Kingdom and Germany. Modern ATACMS variants have a range of up to 300 kilometers (186 miles) and carry a 500-pound unitary warhead, which means they can hit targets at well over three times the range of the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System rounds Ukraine is already using to great effect, with a warhead approximately 2.5 times bigger.

A U.S. Marine Corps HIMARS fires during an exercise in Australia. (Lance Cpl. Alyssa Chuluda/U.S. Marine Corps)

The additional capabilities provided by ATACMS would allow Ukraine to strike high-value targets farther behind the front lines with greater ease, frequency and effectiveness. The Aug. 9 attack on Saki air base in Crimea, which damaged or destroyed roughly half the combat aircraft of the Black Sea Fleet’s 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment, shows the potential of deep strikes against Russian forces and facilities. Striking air bases and ammunition depots used by Russian forces in Ukraine (including in Crimea) would degrade Moscow’s ability to sustain its forces and oppose Ukraine’s new counteroffensive.

Additionally, ATACMS could help degrade Russia’s long-range strike capabilities, which have been used to systematically target Ukrainian cities.

Likewise, Ukrainian forces could use ATACMS to hold at risk docked Russian naval vessels and infrastructure at Russia’s base in Sevastopol, undermining Russia’s ability to conduct sea-launched missile strikes and to enforce its blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

ATACMS strikes against higher-echelon Russian command-and-control nodes located beyond GMLRS range could disorganize Russian forces. And destroying S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems would enable the Ukrainian Air Force to operate more effectively.

Perhaps most important, the Ukrainian military could destroy railheads and bridges on which Russia depends to supply its forces. The Russian military relies heavily on railways to move supplies, and it lacks the truck capacity to replace rail transport, especially after Ukrainian forces have destroyed hundreds of Russian military trucks using weapons provided by the United States and its allies. Destroying these key logistical nodes could disrupt Russian logistics at the operational level, similar to what GMLRS strikes against Russian fuel and ammo depots have achieved at the tactical level.

Of course, a perceived lack of military utility is not why the Biden administration has declined to provide ATACMS to Ukraine; the White House fears Russian escalation in response to the provision of ATACMS. That is why President Joe Biden in May decided against sending ATACMS to Ukraine, saying the United States would give Ukraine the GMLRS but would not “send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia.”

There is good reason to believe these concerns are overstated. For one thing, Moscow’s reaction to the provision of advanced Western military systems to Ukraine has so far featured lots of bark but little bite. Despite Russian saber-rattling, Moscow has refrained from attacking any NATO member — even as Western support helped Ukraine defeat Russia’s assault on Kyiv and stymie Moscow’s subsequent efforts in eastern Ukraine, killing or wounding an estimated 70,000-80,000 invading Russian troops in the process.

A Russian soldier guards an area in Kherson, Ukraine, on May 20, 2022, with a replica of the Victory banner marking the 77th anniversary of the end of World War II in the background. (AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to want no part of a direct conflict with the United States, which is exactly what he would be risking if Russia attacked a NATO member. That’s particularly true at a time when the bulk of Russia’s military is tied down — and heavily degraded — in Ukraine. This calculus is unlikely to change with the introduction of ATACMS.

Moreover, it is important to note that on some parts of the battlefield, Ukrainian forces can already range Russian territory using GMLRS as well as fixed-wing aircraft that are maintained with Western support. Yet, Kyiv has respected U.S. requests not to use long-range, American-provided weapons to strike targets inside Russia itself. The Ukrainians can be expected to honor a similar request related to ATACMS, were the Biden administration to attach such a condition.

Some may argue Putin could respond by using or threatening to use chemical or tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Regarding chemical weapons, the specter of their use has loomed over the conflict since it began, given Russia’s track record of using such weapons to target regime opponents around the world, as well as Moscow’s efforts to cover up the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons in Syria.

However, Russia has apparently refrained from employing chemical weapons in Ukraine, perhaps fearing their use would further isolate Moscow and galvanize additional international support for Ukraine while achieving little in terms of tangible battlefield results. That fundamental calculus is unlikely to change if Kyiv receives the ATACMS, particularly if used only inside Ukraine.

Potential Russian use of a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine — or, more plausibly, the threat to do so as a tool of coercive leverage — obviously carries profound risks. While this threat should be carefully monitored, it seems unlikely, especially since Ukraine reportedly has already conducted a number of drone, helicopter and sabotage attacks on Russian territory without triggering Russian escalation.

Moscow has given no indication it is contemplating nuclear use against Ukraine, and likely would not do so except in the most extreme circumstances. The likelihood of Russia using a nuclear weapon against a NATO member is even lower.

Admittedly, it hardly seems fair to ask Kyiv to refrain from cross-border ATACMS strikes when Putin continues to trample on Ukrainian sovereignty and kill Ukrainian citizens. But providing Kyiv with ATACMS while restricting their use to Ukrainian territory (including in Crimea) can both help Ukraine defeat — rather than manage — Putin’s invasion while avoiding direct conflict between Russia and NATO.

Even with restrictions, providing Ukraine ATACMS is far better than not providing the weapons at all.

Ryan Brobst is a research analyst at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where John Hardie is a senior research analyst focusing on Russian foreign and security policy. Bradley Bowman, senior director of the think tank center, previously served as a national security adviser to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. He was also a U.S. Army officer and an assistant professor at the U.S. Military Academy.

18. Faces of Kremlin Propaganda: Margarita Simonyan

Good work from State and the Global Engagement Center. It would be good if mainstream media would pick up ont these reports and dig into these issues (and players).

As I have written this contributes to the effort to recognize our adversaries' strategies, understand them, expose them, and attack them (with information and a superior political warfare strategy of our own).

Faces of Kremlin Propaganda: Margarita Simonyan - United States Department of State

state.gov

This bulletin is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, and Ukrainian.

Margarita Simonyan is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main faces of propaganda and disinformation, both internationally and inside Russia. She is adept at serving up lies as truths — and with a smile. Margarita Simonyan started her career in Kremlin-funded and controlled media in 2001 as a journalist for the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK). In 2005, she became editor-in-chief of Russia’s first state-funded English language media outlet, RT, formerly known as Russia Today. She maintains her RT position while simultaneously serving as editor-in-chief of Rossiya Segodnya, editor-in-chief of TV-Novosti, and co-founder of the Association for the Development of International Journalism. Despite the many hats she wears, her main function is Vladimir Putin’s loyal propagandist.

A Lifetime of Lies

Throughout her career, Simonyan has supported the Kremlin’s agenda by disseminating disinformation and propaganda. Before becoming editor-in-chief of RT, Simonyan worked in the Kremlin’s pool of journalists covering President Putin. She rose to fame after reporting about the 2004 Beslan school terrorist attack in the North Caucasus. The YouTube channel of Russian opposition leader, Aleksey Navalny, who is currently in a maximum-security prison following politically-motivated convictions, accused Simonyan of purposefully lying during her Beslan broadcasts in order to serve Kremlin priorities. Despite Russian authorities knowing the truth, Simonyan did not mention that the terrorists said they would release hostages if Russian soldiers left Chechnya, and she under-reported the number of hostages. The Kremlin subsequently rewarded Simonyan by appointing her head of Russia’s first state-funded English language media outlet, RT (then called Russia Today), when she was only 25 years old.

For years, Simonyan has openly voiced her support for disinformation and propaganda. In a 2012 interview covering RT’s work during Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, she stated, “the Ministry of Defense was at war with Georgia, and we waged an information war, and with the entire Western world.” In a 2013 interview , she said, “the information weapon, of course, is used in critical moments, and war is always a critical moment. And it’s war. It’s a weapon like any other.” Although Simonyan professes to be a journalist, she blatantly supported reversing the prohibition on media censorship in the Russian constitution, stating that “no big country can exist without control over information.” Despite her disapproval of so-called Western values, such as respect for freedom of speech and freedom of expression , RT’s slogan is “question more” and attempts to present itself as a dissenting voice.

Simonyan cemented her role as a prolific purveyor of Kremlin disinformation as Russia further invaded Ukraine. Before February 2022, like other Kremlin disinformers , she denied that Russia would take military action against Ukraine, claiming she was “absolutely convinced that Russia is not going to start a war with Ukraine, and this will not happen in any way.” Since Russia’s February 24 full-scale invasion, Simonyan has increased her bellicose language, twice indicating that Russia could use nuclear weapons. In June 2022, Simonyan insinuated that the Kremlin wished for global food insecurity when she ended a story with the punchline, “all our hope is in the famine.” She claimed that a positive result of global hunger would be the lifting of global sanctions Russia. The Kremlin continues to spread disinformation about food insecurity, blaming it on sanctions imposed on Russia for its war against Ukraine, even though U.S. sanctions include carve-outs relating to agricultural, medical, and other humanitarian transactions.

Kremlin Disinformation – A Family Affair

Putin’s disinformation and propaganda is a lucrative business, and not just for Simonyan. In 2020, Navalny and his team published a two-part investigation into Simonyan and her family’s corrupt financial gains. One of the investigations focused on Simonyan’s husband , Tigran Keosayan, who is also in the disinformation and propaganda business. Since 2016, Keosayan has hosted a political comedy TV show called “International Sawmill with Tigran Keosayan,” which is produced in the style of American late-night television political comedy. Instead of making fun of the government, Keosayan’s comedy supports Putin. According to the Navalny investigation, Simonyan is the TV show’s artistic director.

Keosayan uses state-funded resources to film his show and sells it to a state-funded broadcaster at an inflated price. Gold Vision, Keosayan’s studio, sells each episode of “International Sawmill” to the state-funded NTV for 3.4 million rubles. At an average of 35 episodes a year, NTV pays Gold Vision nearly 120 million rubles (about $2 million).i Moreover, International Sawmill films its episodes at the studios of Kremlin-funded RT, where Margarita Simonyan is editor-in-chief. About ten full-time employees of RT work on International Sawmill each week. Most do not receive payment from the Gold Vision studio for their work. According to Navalny’s 2020 investigation, in addition to using state funds to produce the television program, Keosayan and Simonyan make above market value profits from advertising by state-owned airline company, Aeroflot. Simonyan and Keosayan have developed these schemes to use their access to federal funds to make a personal profit.

Canada, the United Kingdom and the European Union have sanctioned both Simonyan and Keosayan due to their dissemination of Kremlin disinformation regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine. Kazakhstan has banned Keosayan from the country due to his perceived threats to Kazakhstan’s sovereignty.

Being a Kremlin Mouthpiece Pays Well

The 2020 Navalny investigation exposed the Simonyan-Keosayan family’s other streams of corrupt income. One specific incident illustrated the complexity of the Simonyan-Keosayan web of corruption:

Simonyan and her husband wrote and directed the 2018 film “Crimean Bridge,” which was meant to build national pride in a recently constructed bridge linking Russia to Russia-occupied Crimea. The film received 100 million rubles from the state-funded organization Cinema Foundation. The film was a Simonyan-Keosayan family affair with Keosayan directing the film and Simonyan writing the script. In addition, Keosayan’s brother, two daughters, ex-wife, nephew, and nephew’s wife all earned significant sums of money for their participation in the film. In total, the Simonyan-Keosayan family made 45 million rubles from the film, all drawn from government coffers. This was in stark contrast to the budget for all the actors in the film, which was only 10 million rubles. Film critics and the viewing public negatively reviewed the film and it was a box-office bust.

Despite Navalny’s investigations exposing the Simonyan-Keosayan family’s corruption, the Russian government has yet to prosecute the couple. It appears that because Simonyan has dedicated her life to spreading disinformation and propaganda in service to the Kremlin, the Kremlin will continue to support her financially.

The Global Engagement Center published a report on Kremlin-Funded Media , which highlights the outlets Simonyan is involved with such as RT, Sputnik, Rossiya Segodnya, and TV-Novosti. The report is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Persian, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, and Urdu.

state.gov

19. Russian Anarchists Are Sabotaging Railways To Stop Putin’s War on Ukraine

Resistance everywhere! Long live the resistance.

Photos at the link: https://www.vice.com/en/article/5d3den/russian-anarchists-are-sabotaging-railways-to-stop-putins-war-on-ukraine

Russian Anarchists Are Sabotaging Railways To Stop Putin’s War on Ukraine

A group called BOAK has claimed responsibility for destroying communications towers and delaying trains used to deliver weapons to the military.

Vice · August 31, 2022

In late June, a group of anarchists donned camouflage, covered their faces, and snuck out into a forest about 60 miles northeast of Moscow with a lofty goal: to sabotage Putin’s invasion of Ukraine by physically disabling railways used to supply weapons to the Russian military.

The group selected its target using Wikimapia, a “geographic online encyclopedia” that labels geographic features observed in photos from Google Maps. Once they arrived at the site, the group got to work, unscrewing dozens of nuts off the rails, and four off the rail joint, while keeping the electrical signal largely intact with a wire to evade detection over the course of several hours. Finally, they scribbled “BO(A)K,” on the tracks with a white marker before dissolving back into the countryside.

“We see [the] current conflict in Eastern Europe as the regional stage of global struggle,” an anonymous spokesperson from BOAK, the anarchist communist combat organization that claimed responsibility for the sabotage, told Motherboard in a written interview. “The defeat and collapse of Putin’s regime will give a chance at least for peoples of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia to make important steps towards social liberation.”

The BOAK spokesperson and others spoke to Motherboard under the condition of anonymity, in order to ensure their safety from retaliation by Russian authorities.

BOAK’s claimed responsibility for the action on their Telegram channel and blog. Sabotaging tracks that supply the Russian military is cost-effective, relatively easy for lay people, and does not harm civilians, the group told France24.

Russian railways had reportedly been sabotaged by various dissidents on as many as sixty-three occasions during the first three months of Putin’s invasion, according to a Russia-focused independent media outlet The Insider, although the publication noted some instances of malfunction may be attributable to routine mechanical failures. Some of the attacks were done in collaboration with a clandestine network of railway workers, hackers, and other dissidents located in Belarus, Russia, and elsewhere throughout the region. Human rights groups reported that in the early months of the invasion, at least 11 dissidents in Belarus were arrested after being linked to the sabotage by authorities.

The action in June wasn’t the first time BOAK claimed responsibility for an act of sabotage. In April, the group wrapped a cell phone tower’s electrical cables with rags, doused them in flammable liquid, and set them on fire to impede communications between police and military forces, according to the group. Prior to Putin’s assault on Ukraine, BOAK claimed responsibility for burning a telecommunications tower belonging to a Turkish company near Kyiv in solidarity with the Rojava Revolution in North and East Syria.

Others are choosing military recruitment and enlistment centers in Russia as their targets. According to local media reports and Telegram channels, at least 23 offices have been attacked from February to July, 20 of which involved arson. In some cases, the guerillas posted videos of the acts themselves; BOAK told the anarchist radio show The Final Straw that these acts of resistance are a spontaneous and decentralized phenomenon.

For BOAK, taking direct action is important for sabotaging Putin and his war machine, but it also helps dissidents gain the strength, skills and power necessary for achieving their longer-term revolutionary political goals.

“We advocate social revolution as the replacement of statist and capitalist World Order, BOAK wrote, “by the popular self-government and collective control over [the] economy based on freedom, equality and solidarity.”

An American audience may associate anarchist communists in Russia with Leninist or Stalinist political traditions, but the group was clear to differentiate its methods and ideology from Marxist-Leninists.

“We do not need dictators, presidents and parliaments,” they explained. “We are against parliamentarianism even in ‘democratic’ states.”

Marxist-Leninists advocate seizing state power to bring about a stateless classless society, while anarchists argue that these methods ultimately reproduce the hierarchical structures that revolutionaries oppose when party officials inevitably become a new ruling class.

Instead, anarchist communists work toward building power from below by developing decentralized, non-hierarchical voluntary networks. Groups or communities within a network, sometimes called a federation, each have their own unique set of decision-making structures, economic and social arrangements, yet they reinforce each other in mutually beneficial ways. Higher order units within a federation may be created to administer and coordinate certain tasks, but they do not impose orders on lower-units like a hierarchical government does.

The group says that these direct actions mirror the anarchist ethos of people taking matters into their own hands, without permission from authority figures.

“[T]he parliamentary struggle in modern Russia is not only impossible, it contradicts the anarchist principle of the direct involvement of people into the transformation of society, [and] teaches people to trust ‘professional political experts,’” the BOAK spokesperson wrote. “Direct action, on the contrary, is an instrument to overcome alienation, it teaches people to participate in decision-making, to rely on their own strengths, and not just wait [for] orders from the privileged Minority.”

Of course, taking direct action against a heavily-armed state is extremely dangerous. Russian authorities often torture dissidents and sentence anti-war activists to lengthy prison terms. Vladimir Sergeev and Anton Zhuchov, for example, face up to ten years in prison for bringing molotov cocktails to an anti-war demonstration. While detained they both attempted to commit suicide, but survived after being hospitalized and were arrested once again.

The actions of groups like BOAK parallel militant acts taken by political dissidents around the world. In the United States, anarchist political prisoner Eric King is serving a ten-year sentence for throwing a molotov cocktail at a politician’s empty office in solidarity with the 2014 Black liberation uprisings in Ferguson, Missouri. Josh Williams was sentenced to eight years for lighting a trash can on fire during the Ferguson uprisings. And an innumerable number of protesters arrested during the George Floyd uprising have been sentenced to years behind bars. In May 2022, Brittany Martin was sentenced to four years in prison for allegedly yelling at a cop during a small demonstration in South Carolina.

BOAK is encouraging people around the globe to show solidarity for prisoners of war in Russia, and continue to pay attention to the atrocities committed in Eastern Europe even though the war is no longer front-and-center of the news cycle.

“We would just ask your readers not to turn a blind eye towards the events in Eastern Europe,” they wrote. “An effect of this battle definitely will reach far beyond its region. The forces who fight totalitarian regimes here need your support and participation.”

Vice · August 31, 2022

20. UN inspectors arrive at Ukraine nuclear plant after shelling causes delay

The shelling must have been part of the Russian welcoming ceremony.

UN inspectors arrive at Ukraine nuclear plant after shelling causes delay

Reuters · by Tom Balmforth

Summary
Team was delayed several hours by shelling near plant
Each side accuses other of trying to sabotage IAEA mission
Shelling reported at Enerhodar, site of plant, overnight
Ukraine claims successes in counter-offensive

ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine, Sept 1 (Reuters) - A team of U.N. experts arrived at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia atomic plant complex on Thursday to assess the risk of a radiation disaster after being delayed several hours by shelling near the site.

Russia and Ukraine earlier accused each other of trying to sabotage the mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the plant in southern central Ukraine, which is controlled by Russian forces but operated by Ukrainian staff.

Conditions at the nuclear plant, Europe's largest, have been unravelling for weeks, with Moscow and Kyiv regularly trading blame for shelling in the vicinity and fuelling fears of a Chornobyl-style radiation disaster.

A Reuters reporter saw the IAEA team arrive in a large convoy with a heavy presence of Russian soldiers nearby. A Ukrainian source with knowledge of the situation told Reuters the mission "may turn out to be shorter than was planned".

Ukraine's state nuclear company Energoatom said Russian shelling had forced the shutdown of one of only two operating reactors at the site, while Moscow said it had thwarted a Ukrainian attempt to seize the plant. read more

A Reuters reporter in the nearby Russian-controlled town of Enerhodar said a residential building was struck by shelling, forcing people to take cover in a basement. It was not possible to establish who had fired.

The Russian-installed governor of Zaporizhzhia district, Yevgeny Balitsky, said at least three people had been killed and five wounded in what he said was Ukrainian shelling of Enerhodar that had also destroyed three kindergartens and the House of Culture. Power to the town had been cut in the morning, he said.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was doing everything to ensure that the plant could operate safely, and for the IAEA inspectors to be able to complete their tasks.

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told reporters early on Thursday in the city of Zaporizhzhia, 55 km (34 miles) from the plant, he was aware of "increased military activity in the area" but would press ahead with the plan to visit the facility and meet staff.

The IAEA inspectors, wearing body armour and travelling in white, armoured land cruisers with UN markings on their sides, had been held at the first check point outside the city following the shelling reports.

'PROVOCATION'

Russia accused Ukrainian forces of trying to seize the plant and also of shelling both the meeting point of the IAEA delegation and the nuclear plant itself.

Russia's defence ministry said up to 60 Ukrainian troops had crossed the Dnipro river, which divides territory held by the two sides, in boats at 6:00 a.m. local time (0300 GMT), in what it said was a "provocation" aimed at disrupting the IAEA visit. read more

The ministry said "measures had been taken" to destroy the opposing troops, including use of military aviation.

A local Russian-installed official, Vladimir Rogov, later said "around 40" of the 60 Ukrainian troops had been killed. Russian troops also captured three Ukrainian servicemen during the assault on the plant, he added.

Ukrainian officials have welcomed the IAEA visit, expressing hope that it will lead to the demilitarisation of the plant. They say Russia has been using the plant as a shield to hit towns, knowing it will be hard for Kyiv's forces to return fire.

They have also accused Russian forces of shelling the plant, which Russian officials deny.

1/11

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi leaves a hotel as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission departs for a visit to Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine September 1, 2022. REUTERS/Anna Voitenko

Reuters journalists who followed the IAEA convoy before being ordered to turn back due to the dangerous conditions said that while they were in the city of Zaporizhzhia during the night, they had seen flashes of explosions in the sky.

They could not verify who was responsible.

Map locating Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant with Russian occupied Ukrainian territory

Russian-installed officials have suggested that the team from the U.N. nuclear watchdog would have only a day to inspect the plant, while the mission had prepared for longer.

"If we are able to establish a permanent presence, or a continued presence, then it's going to be prolonged. But this first segment is going to take a few days," Grossi had said.

'SLOW PROCESS'

Both sides have claimed battlefield successes amid a new Ukrainian push to recapture territory in the south.

"It is a very slow process, because we value people," said Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, referring to the Ukrainian offensive.

Moscow has denied reports of Ukrainian progress and said its troops had routed Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine's southern military command said it would not immediately name settlements in the south it had recaptured to avoid prompting Russian strikes on them.

It also said its counter-offensive was not affecting a Black Sea corridor created to allow for exports of Ukrainian grain.

Russia captured large tracts of southern Ukraine close to the Black Sea coast soon after launching its invasion on Feb. 24, including in the Kherson region, north of the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula.

In eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in the direction of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, towns north of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk in Ukraine's industrial Donbas region, Kyiv's military general staff said.

Russian-backed separatists said on Thursday 13 emergency service personnel were killed and nine wounded after coming under Ukrainian artillery fire in the Russian-controlled part of the Donetsk region.

Reuters was not able to independently verify the report.

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special military operation" to rid Ukraine of nationalists and protect Russian-speaking communities.

Ukraine and the West describe Russia's actions as an unprovoked war of aggression that has caused millions to flee, killed thousands and turned cities into rubble.

Reporting by Tom Balmforth in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, and by Reuters bureaus; Writing by Gareth Jones; Editing by Robert Birsel and Philippa Fletcher

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Reuters · by Tom Balmforth

21. Taiwan shoots down drone for first time off Chinese coast

Are we getting closer to a miscalculation?

Taiwan shoots down drone for first time off Chinese coast

Reuters · by Reuters

TAIPEI, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Taiwan's military for the first time shot down an unidentified civilian drone that entered its airspace near an islet off the Chinese coast on Thursday, after the government vowed to take tough measures to deal with an increase in such intrusions.

Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its own against the strong objections of the Taipei government, has held military exercises around the island since early last month in reaction to a visit to Taipei by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Taiwan's government has said it will not provoke or escalate tensions but has been particularly angered recently by repeated cases of Chinese drones buzzing islands controlled by Taiwan close to China's coast.

The defence command for Kinmen, a group of Taiwan-controlled islands opposite China's Xiamen and Quanzhou cities, said in a statement released by Taiwan's defence ministry that the drone entered restricted air space over Lion Islet just after midday (0400 GMT).

Troops on the islet tried warning it away but to no effect, so shot it down, with the remains landing in the sea, it added.

Taiwan fired warning shots at a drone for the first time on Tuesday shortly after President Tsai Ing-wen ordered the military to take "strong countermeasures" against what she termed Chinese provocations.

China's foreign ministry, which on Monday dismissed Taiwan's complaints about drones as nothing "to make a fuss about", referred questions to the defence ministry, which had yet to comment.

Chiu Chui-cheng, deputy head of Taiwan's China-policy making Mainland Affairs Council, told reporters in Taipei that Taiwan had the legal authority to take "necessary defence measures", as Chinese aircraft were not allowed into Kinmen's air space.

Those measures include forcing aircraft to leave or to land, he said.

Speaking to the armed forces earlier on Thursday, Tsai said China was using drones and other "grey zone" tactics to try to intimidate Taiwan, her office cited her as saying in a statement.

Tsai again emphasised that Taiwan would not provoke disputes but that did not mean that it would not take countermeasures, the statement added.

"She has also ordered the Ministry of National Defense to take necessary and strong countermeasures in a timely manner to defend national security," it said.

"Let the military guard the country without fear and with solid confidence."

Taiwan has controlled Kinmen, which at its closest point is a few hundred metres (feet) from Chinese territory, since the defeated Republic of China government fled to Taipei after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong's communists in 1949.

During the height of the Cold War, China regularly shelled Kinmen and other Taiwanese-held islands along the Chinese coast, but they are now tourist destinations.

Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Robert Birsel

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Reuters · by Reuters

22. How American Lawyers and Accountants Help Fuel the War in Ukraine

How American Lawyers and Accountants Help Fuel the War in Ukraine

These enablers are successful because U.S. law exempts them from the rules that make it hard for American banks to do business with criminals.

The National Interest · by Elaine Dezenski · August 30, 2022

To punish the oligarchs funding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, America and its allies are seizing their yachts, Park Avenue penthouses, and corporate assets hidden overseas. But Russian business magnates would not be able to buy these penthouses and yachts in the first place without extensive help from American lawyers, accountants, and financial advisors.

These enablers aid and abet corrupt regimes across the globe—in Russia, China, Angola, Myanmar, and elsewhere—by hiding the proceeds of corruption in the recesses of the U.S. legal and financial systems.

These enablers are successful because U.S. law exempts them from the rules that make it hard for American banks to do business with criminals. While Congress has closed some loopholes—for example, by making it harder to buy luxury real estate with dirty cash—the enablers are creative. New versions of corporate trusts operate like black holes and within them, the growing use of cryptocurrencies clears a path for more criminality. It’s an old game but with new tricks.

Congress is now considering legislation called the ENABLERS Act. The bill empowers the Treasury Department to require certain lawyers, accountants, company formation service providers, and others to conduct anti-money laundering checks in certain situations—for example, when they are asked to manage or advise on assets or form new trusts or companies.

The requirements are similar to those that U.S. banks must follow under U.S. law. Extending some of these requirements to enablers means they can no longer turn a blind eye to questionable funds and people without incurring legal risk.

The House of Representatives included the legislation as part of the annual must-pass National Defense Authorization Act. The path forward in the Senate is less clear.

Under the ENABLERS Act, the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, or FinCEN, would develop regulations to implement the law, starting with identifying the specific anti-money laundering processes for each category of professionals.

Combatting foreign corruption has been one of Congress's few bipartisan rallying points over the past several years and with good reason. As the yachts and penthouses show, the U.S. financial system is not immune to dirty money. FinCEN needs broader authorities to combat existing loopholes and anticipate new threats.

However, FinCEN’s capacity to implement and enforce the additional requirements of the ENABLERS bill is in question. Congress has piled on new responsibilities without the authorities, funding, and staff to carry them out.

For example, the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2020 assigned FinCEN to implement key provisions of the Corporate Transparency Act, including establishing a beneficial ownership registry. This has already forced trade-offs and delays across agency priorities.

But the solution to an underfunded agency struggling to execute its critical mission is not to oppose new legislation. Instead, Congress and the Biden administration should commit to a comprehensive plan to strengthen FinCEN.

Recent proposals to increase its budget and double its staff are moving in the right direction but they are only playing catch up to the agency’s existing workload.

Money and people are essential but only part of the equation. FinCEN also needs to be more innovative. Advanced technology, including artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning tools, will improve case management, strengthen risk assessment and analytics, and help reduce the overwhelming logjam of external data FinCEN receives through its Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) system.

FinCEN must also cultivate a culture that attracts and retains the best staff. FinCEN ranks 429 out of 432 federal agencies on the Partnership for Public Service list of best places to work in government—an abysmal achievement. Rather than consistently ranking as one of the worst places to work in the federal government, it’s time to move FinCEN out of the bureaucratic backwater and into the forefront of the fight against global financial crime and corruption.

Congress and the Biden Administration have a unique opportunity to reimagine and resource FinCEN and make it ready to carry out a mission essential to U.S. national security.

The costs of overhauling the bureau pale in comparison to the global toll wrought by corruption, illicit finance, and kleptocracy.

Elaine Dezenski is Senior Director and Head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Tyler Stapleton is Director of Congressional Relations at FDD Action.

Image: Reuters.

The National Interest · by Elaine Dezenski · August 30, 2022

23. FDD | Clashes Erupt in Iraq in Response to Sadr’s Resignation

FDD | Clashes Erupt in Iraq in Response to Sadr’s Resignation

fdd.org · August 31, 2022

Latest Developments

Supporters of influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr stormed Baghdad’s Green Zone on Monday and clashed with security forces, leaving at least 30 dead and 400 wounded. The conflict was in response to Sadr’s announcement of his resignation from Iraqi politics, angering his followers, who support his efforts to end Iranian influence in the government. The violence subsided on Tuesday when Sadr urged his backers to end their protests and go home.

Expert Analysis

“America should make clear to the Iranian regime that it is still engaged in Iraq, and that the United States will help Baghdad restore its sovereignty by disarming and disbanding the pro-Iran militias. Any other American position would be construed in Tehran as a signal that Washington is no longer invested in Iraq, and that Iran is free to stoke civil war and dominate its neighbor to the west.” – Hussain Abdul-Hussain, FDD Research Fellow

A Conflict Long in the Making

The current conflict dates to October 2021, when the pro-Iran bloc suffered a defeat in parliamentary elections. Sadr, who heads the largest bloc, assembled a 200-member majority coalition and re-elected the parliament’s anti-Iran speaker. That coalition was on its way to electing a president and forming a cabinet when the Iraqi Supreme Court, acting at Tehran’s behest, ruled that a parliamentary quorum must consist of two-thirds of parliament’s 329 members. The ruling left Sadr unable to form a government, freezing the majority in its tracks and forcing months of stalemate.

Sadr Inadvertently Empowers Iran

In response to the court ruling, Sadr instructed his bloc of 73 MPs to resign. The pro-Iran bloc jumped on the opportunity by swearing in its defeated candidates from the 2021 elections to replace the Sadrists. The Iran bloc thus obtained a majority and tried to rush the election of a president and formation of a cabinet to its liking. To stop Tehran, Sadr was left with only one tool: the street. Over the past weeks, Sadr’s supporters have stormed the fortified Green Zone several times and surrounded the Supreme Court building, demanding that it dissolve parliament.

Further Conflict in Iraq Could Destabilize the Region

Iraq is the fourth-biggest biggest exporter of oil in the world, shipping close to 4 million barrels per day. If the violence grows, Iraqi oil production and exports might go offline, thus squeezing an already starved global energy market. A new round of civil war in Iraq would also create tens of thousands of refugees who may try to find their way to Western countries. In recent years, Iraq’s neighbors, such as Jordan, have already seen their economies approach their breaking points due to the influx of close to a million refugees.

Related FDD Analysis

“Iraq election drubbing leaves Iran scrambling to save its militias” by Hussain Abdul-Hussain
“Iraqi election results confirm Iran’s unpopularity” by Hussain Abdul-Hussain

fdd.org · August 31, 2022

24. Pelosi showing up in Taiwan is not enough

Calling balls and striikes.

Excerpts:

Mrs. Pelosi must know that. It would be a Nixon-to-China moment (so to speak) were she to call for sharply increasing military spending but that’s what is necessary for “deterrence by denial” – convincing Mr. Xi that a military invasion of Taiwan would likely fail.

She ought to acknowledge, too, that America’s defense-industrial base is in urgent need of shoring up. We don’t have the means to rapidly produce military hardware and munitions to replace what we’re sending to the Ukrainians who are now defending themselves from a neo-imperialist tyrant – in large measure because we did not make Ukraine a porcupine when we should have.

As much as a trillion dollars for this purpose could be available if Mr. Biden would change his mind about forcing taxpayers to pick up the tab for loans taken out by a select group of college graduates. Mrs. Pelosi has said he doesn’t have the legal authority to spend the public’s money this way. Now would be a good time for her to press the point.

Mr. Biden will be displeased but so what? He objected to her going to Taiwan this summer and she went anyway.

She did that as a matter of principle, not as virtue signaling, or to give herself a grand swan song. That’s my story and I’ve now stuck to it for an entire column.

Pelosi showing up in Taiwan is not enough

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

OPINION:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi cares deeply about the people of Taiwan as she has throughout her long career. That’s my story and I’m going to try my darnedest to stick to it as I write this column.

Her visit to the self-governing island earlier this month displayed her commitment to this beleaguered democracy. At a press event following her meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen, she said her goal was to make Taiwan’s security relationship with the U.S. “stronger and up-to-date.” She emphasized: “And we don’t want anything to happen to Taiwan by force.”

She also pledged to boost America’s economic relationship with Taiwan, in particular, a “trade agreement that might be possible and soon.”

So, what has she done to fulfill these promises since her return to Washington? Not much, far as I can tell.

That’s a problem because – apologies to Woody Allen – 80% of success is not just showing up.

Mrs. Pelosi is a lioness in winter. Her days as a political powerhouse probably end after the November elections. There are steps she can take to strengthen Taiwan and more effectively deter China’s rulers. But she needs to act quickly and boldly.

She might start with the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, introduced by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez. Its purpose, as Mr. Menendez wrote, is to “develop and put in place a new and more resilient strategy for Taiwan while there is still time.”

The bipartisan bill would help the Taiwanese with defense training and planning, as well as provide $4.5 billion in security assistance – funds Taiwan would use to purchase U.S. weapons systems already approved for sale under both the Trump and Biden administrations.

The better trained and armed the Taiwanese are, the less likely that Xi Jinping will wage war on them. A more colorful – if by now clichéd – way to say this: Taiwan needs to become a porcupine – tough for a predator to swallow.

Mrs. Pelosi should be pressing the House Foreign Affairs Committee to advance a companion version of the Taiwan Policy Act, as well as making plans for the full House to consider such legislation before the end of the fiscal year.

Moving on to the U.S.-Taiwan economic relationship: Where’s her legislation establishing a free trade agreement that would reduce Taiwan‘s economic reliance on Beijing, currently its top trading partner?

She’d find many allies for that across the aisle. Getting President Joe Biden on board will be more challenging but she’s no slacker when it comes to arm-twisting.

And does she support the renewal of trade promotion authority to give the White House a way to fast-track trade deals in Congress?

Other useful activities would include speaking out forcefully against Beijing’s influence operations on American campuses, taking on the Chinese Communist Party’s apologists in Hollywood and on Wall Street, warning state and local governments against getting too cozy with Beijing, and doing something about the UN’s refusal to penalize Beijing in any meaningful way for its genocide of Uighur Muslims and other minorities, not to mention its colonization of Tibet. Leave aside for the moment a serious inquiry into how a viral pandemic spread from the city where the Wuhan Institute of Virology is located.

It also would be helpful if – at this time of rising isolationism on both the left and the right – she would explain clearly to the public how important Taiwan is to American prosperity and why, if the Free World is to endure, America can not be indifferent when totalitarians threaten to snuff out democratic societies.

She could remind Americans that the Taiwanese have never been ruled by communists and don’t want to be. We know that for certain from public polling and because of the Taiwanese vote in free and fair elections.

Mr. Xi’s argument for the Taiwanese accepting the mainland as their motherland might have been more compelling had he abided by his government’s treaty obligation to respect the civil and human rights that Hong Kong enjoyed under British rule. Instead, he reneged on the “One Country, Two Systems” promise – and when the people of Hong Kong protested, he responded brutally.

One more item, the most significant: Mr. Biden has said three times that he would use force to defend Taiwan. At present, however, the U.S. military is not adequately resourced for that mission.

Mrs. Pelosi must know that. It would be a Nixon-to-China moment (so to speak) were she to call for sharply increasing military spending but that’s what is necessary for “deterrence by denial” – convincing Mr. Xi that a military invasion of Taiwan would likely fail.

She ought to acknowledge, too, that America’s defense-industrial base is in urgent need of shoring up. We don’t have the means to rapidly produce military hardware and munitions to replace what we’re sending to the Ukrainians who are now defending themselves from a neo-imperialist tyrant – in large measure because we did not make Ukraine a porcupine when we should have.

As much as a trillion dollars for this purpose could be available if Mr. Biden would change his mind about forcing taxpayers to pick up the tab for loans taken out by a select group of college graduates. Mrs. Pelosi has said he doesn’t have the legal authority to spend the public’s money this way. Now would be a good time for her to press the point.

Mr. Biden will be displeased but so what? He objected to her going to Taiwan this summer and she went anyway.

She did that as a matter of principle, not as virtue signaling, or to give herself a grand swan song. That’s my story and I’ve now stuck to it for an entire column.

• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for the Washington Times.

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washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

25. China's psychological war for Taiwan

Let's understand Chinese Political Warfare, Unrestricted Warfare, and the Three Warfares (psychological, legal, and media) (recognize, understand, expose, and attack [with information])

Excerpts:

So these types of actions are likely to continue, which stress test Taiwan’s defenses and Washington’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” over whether the U.S. will defend the island from attack. Though lately, President Joe Biden has been rather unambiguous about that.

It may be worth taking Campbell up on his suggestion for U.S. military and foreign policy experts to study and become aware of such operations, “not just of military capabilities and China’s growing power, but also of [Chinese military] psychological operations and their underlying intent.”

China's psychological war for Taiwan

theruck.news · by Paul Szoldra

Taiwanese military radar operators deserve a raise following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) trip to Taipei in early August. More foreign delegations are coming, and the radar screen may be busy for a while.

China, which has long vowed to “unify” the tiny island democracy situated about 100 miles from its shores, has been conducting regular flights into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) throughout the month. Two of those sorties featured strategic bombers with nuclear strike capability, according to Radio Free Asia. And dozens of Chinese aircraft and several ships were seen operating around Taiwan this past weekend, its defense ministry said.

SO TODAY, I’m unpacking China’s saber-rattling toward Taiwan and its meaning. The good news is that these sorts of moves are mostly bluster from China, and an invasion isn’t likely to happen soon. It’s psychological warfare meant to intimidate the U.S. and Taiwan—and those radar operators are certainly feeling the strain.

Hello. I’m Paul Szoldra, and this is THE RUCK, a newsletter dedicated to unpacking the future of national security. Thank you for joining me.

The Ruck is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

First, the NEWS:

The fallout continues for former President Donald Trump following the execution of an FBI search warrant at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida residence. Country clubs are not the most secure facilities for highly-classified, top secret documents involving human intelligence sources. Yet Trump had plenty in his office despite claiming a “diligent search” found everything. The former president and his supporters have claimed the docs were declassified, but clearly, the National Archives and other federal agencies did not get that message, and a stunning photo filed in the case shows some of them with classification markings such as “TOP SECRET/SCI” as clear as day.
Bradley P. Moss @BradMossEsq
I have read the entire Government filing. I spend all day, every day, litigating against the Government, so some of this is familiar stuff to see. This particular brief is very well-done. Here are the highlights: 1) The facts. NARA negotiated in 2021 for the missingAugust 31st 2022
18,196 Retweets57,760 Likes
Ukraine launched a counteroffensive against Russia in the country’s south on Aug. 29, hoping to turn the tide of the six-month-old war. Ukrainian officials say they broke through Russian defenses in Kherson, though “the information space will likely become confused for a time,” according to the Institute for the Study of War. One thing we do know…
The war in Ukraine is putting a strain on American stockpiles. The Pentagon has sent some 806,000 of 155mm artillery rounds to Kyiv so far, “depleting stockpiles intended for unexpected threats,” defense officials told The Wall Street Journal.

NOW, TO UNDERSTAND what’s happening in the Taiwan Strait, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, I’m turning to a new paper by Lt. Col. Brian E. Campbell in the U.S. Air Force Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs that sheds interesting light on the situation.

Campbell argues that Chinese incursions near Taiwan should be viewed through the lens of psychological operations—steps to influence opinions, emotions, behavior, etc.—and he points to a four-day period nearly a year ago as “a case study.” It certainly generated headlines around the world, that’s for sure.

Back then, from Oct. 1 and Oct. 4, 2021, China’s Air Force flew a “record-setting 149 sorties” near Taiwan, one sortie of which included 52 aircraft that was “clearly designed to deliver a message,” wrote Campbell.

“Through a lens of psychological operations, the target, sorties, and aircraft types take on important meaning for U.S. military planners and foreign policy experts.” What meaning?

“Through airpower, [Chinese] psychological operations communicate the ability to bring dominant military power to bear in and around Taiwan, countering the undercurrent of US strength,” Campbell says. “The message [Chinese Air Force] incursions communicate is clear. Gone are the days of asymmetric airpower advantages that allowed US political leaders to defend Taiwan at a relatively low cost. Instead, the [Chinese Air Force] poses a credible threat to US air superiority and will impose great costs on defenders of the island.”

As Michele Flournoy, a top Pentagon official during the Obama administration, recently told NBC News: “It’s a very different situation now. It’s a much more contested and much more lethal environment for our forces.”

The incursions highlight growing Chinese military capabilities and serve to undermine U.S. advantages, says Campbell, claiming that “modern weapon systems and capabilities” were on full display during the days-long October sprint to around 150 sorties with fighters, bombers, patrol, and command-and-control aircraft all taking part.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has tracked about 100 or so Chinese aircraft entering its airspace in recent days. On Sunday, the U.S. Navy sent two warships sailing through the Taiwan Strait—the Yokosuka, Japan-based USS Antietam and the USS Chancellorsville—and both were observed and unbothered by China during the transit.

That’s not likely to hold true forever. As U.S. Navy Adm. Phil Davidson testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee last year, China is “accelerating their ambitions” to supplant the U.S. role as a global leader by 2050, and Taiwan stands right in the middle.

“I’m worried about them moving that target closer,” said Davidson, then-commander of all U.S. forces in the Pacific. “Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before then. And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years.”

At stake on that hypothetical invasion date of March 9, 2027, is a young democracy of 23 million citizens on an island that produces most of the advanced chips the world needs for everything from smartphones to smart bombs. But, according to Pew Research, “tensions between China and Taiwan typically have been among the least pressing in the minds of American adults.”

That poses a challenge for U.S. leaders, who have long counted on Beijing backing down to U.S. military might. As China’s military capabilities have markedly improved over the past quarter-century, so too has its inclination to push the envelope.

“Ultimately, [Chinese Air Force] incursions provide useful evidence of…efforts to threaten the status quo without fighting,” wrote Campbell. “The incursions illustrate that psychological warfare is not just conceptual; they include tangible operations executed by the PLA to achieve strategic objectives,” such as:

eliciting feelings about China’s growing national power
sowing doubt in U.S. military capabilities and political commitment to Taiwan
fomenting political division

So these types of actions are likely to continue, which stress test Taiwan’s defenses and Washington’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” over whether the U.S. will defend the island from attack. Though lately, President Joe Biden has been rather unambiguous about that.

It may be worth taking Campbell up on his suggestion for U.S. military and foreign policy experts to study and become aware of such operations, “not just of military capabilities and China’s growing power, but also of [Chinese military] psychological operations and their underlying intent.”

26. Going Viral: Preparing Ground Forces for Combat in the Information Age

Conclusion:

The Russia-Ukraine conflict should serve as a wake-up call for the Pentagon. The information domain is critical to modern warfare. The US military must reevaluate how conventional forces train and operate in this increasingly complex environment. Otherwise, it will cede the initiative to US adversaries, who are no doubt learning from Russia’s experience in Ukraine and doing what they can to improve their influence capabilities. The US military must do the same.

Going Viral: Preparing Ground Forces for Combat in the Information Age - Modern War Institute

Don Gomez and Tucker Chase | 09.01.22

mwi.usma.edu · by Don Gomez · September 1, 2022

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Of all the lessons of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, one stands out: the importance of achieving dominance in the information domain. From the first days of the war, Ukraine has used information to shape the course of the conflict to its advantage. But American policymakers should not be too quick to mock Russia’s failures in the information environment: the US military itself is underprepared for war in the information age, where the actions of military units and individual soldiers may go viral in an instant. As the US Army continues to reconceptualize the role of information as both a weapon and a battlespace, it should learn some lessons from Ukraine’s success.

Failing to Train for Warfare in the Information Domain

Despite impressive strides by the US military to elevate the importance of information in modern warfare, gaps remain that threaten to hinder its efforts in future conflicts. Senior leaders still tend to have a shortsighted view of information operations: at best, they view it as something that can help support or shape the decisive operation; at worst, it’s an afterthought. Maneuver commanders instinctively prioritize their efforts to dominate air, ground, and other domains, rather than focusing on the information space. They ignore Major General Robert Scales’s advice that armies should prioritize “capturing the psycho-cultural rather than the geographical high ground.”

In addition, the centralization of information operations authorities at echelons above the brigade level inhibits tactical commanders. Over the past two decades of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations, junior officers who attempted to leverage information confronted numerous protocols and grueling approval timelines as division and joint task force commands retained oversight in most cases. If this restrictive authority structure severely limited the effectiveness of information in counterinsurgency, then it will be crippling in large-scale combat operations, where the rapid pace of operations demands immediate exploitation of information—a reality that has been demonstrated daily in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Moreover, training and doctrine fail to adequately prepare tactical leaders for operating in an information-dense environment. Army doctrine, for example, does not explain how junior officers and noncommissioned officers can successfully deploy information on the battlefield. Instead, the doctrine views brigade and division staff—who are often far from the point of contact—as the epicenter for information application. And there are gaps in training tactical leaders on how to effectively publicize US strategic goals and echo messages from echelons above brigade. A soldier being live streamed while on patrol will not be able to confer with a public affairs officer. The failure to develop military doctrine and training that empower tactical leaders represents a dangerous liability for future large-scale conflicts.

The Primacy of the Information Domain

The military should expect noncombatants to broadcast the actions of military units on the internet. Ukraine demonstrated the value of this by empowering each soldier as a network node able to accept and disseminate information instantaneously about Russian locations, fires, capabilities, and morale. The ability to exploit information at the tactical level allowed Ukraine to publicize every heroic act, every Russian failure, and every successful military engagement, creating an inspiring multilayered media narrative. While the origins of the mythical “Ghost of Kyiv” remain uncertain, Ukraine profited from its popularity and promulgation, which has inspired a spirit of resistance captured in the phrase “we are all ghosts of Kyiv.” Additionally, Ukrainian information operations demonstrate the primacy of emotional content. An example includes a display of 109 empty baby strollers representing the children who died at the start of the Russian invasion. These stories have effectively influenced international public sentiment and shaped the responses of political leaders. Information warfare makes war viral.

Adversaries also employ information warfare to shape the environment according to their interests. The proliferation of individually identifiable, commercially accessible data allows adversaries to microtarget American soldiers and commanders to disrupt and influence military operations. These techniques have already been employed in combat, pairing classic psychological operations with new technology to deliver pinpoint messages direct to soldiers’ phones. While the methods are new, the concepts are not. Many of these operations appear to be rudimentary and simple forms of harassment, but future efforts will likely employ more sophisticated technology, including deepfakes and machine learning to deliver powerful effects. The demonstrated willingness of adversaries to employ these techniques should inform future training and doctrine.

Next Steps for the United States Army

Instead of fixating on geographical key terrain, tactical commanders must acknowledge that winning in the information environment should be a priority. As Ukraine has proven, war is a contest of wills and the US military must recognize that to gain advantage in modern warfare, it must elevate the primacy of the information domain.

First, tactical operations and kinetic engagements need to serve a narrative strategy. The commander’s intent—arguably the most important portion of a military order—often fails to include how the mission supports the overall information campaign. As Lieutenant General Dennis Crall, the Joint Staff’s former director of command, control, communications and computers/cyber and chief information officer, J6 has warned, commanders currently have an attitude of “sprinkle some IO on that.” That is a mistake. Information warfare should not be an ancillary thought in preparing for large-scale conflict but rather a primary means to achieving victory. Operational orders should therefore include an insertion on how the mission supports other information activities.

Second, the Army should consider options for decentralizing information operations and build a shared understanding of release authority across its formations. Dr. Raphael Cohen, a political scientist at Rand, highlights this organizational problem: “I know what the release authority is for a JDAM [Joint Direct Attack Munition], but I don’t know the release authority for a tweet.” This centralized authority inhibits the potential of influence activities in a large-scale conflict. Ukraine has attained success in the information domain because of its ability to rapidly leverage information at the point of contact. Recognizing the potential benefits of decentralization, the US military should consider planning now for situations in which junior and noncommissioned officers might be the key to achieving information dominance in a future war. To do this effectively, however, the Army must educate the force on the appropriate use of information.

Third, commanders should prioritize enhanced media training and prepare for digital communication vulnerabilities. Increasing media awareness, integrating advanced media activities into field training scenarios, and strengthening relationships with journalists can better prepare American forces for modern combat. In Afghanistan, for example, commanders who fostered a relationship with journalists found that their initial concerns about operational security leaks were overblown. Instead, they found that through their media relationships, they were able to accurately convey the story of their units’ operations.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict should serve as a wake-up call for the Pentagon. The information domain is critical to modern warfare. The US military must reevaluate how conventional forces train and operate in this increasingly complex environment. Otherwise, it will cede the initiative to US adversaries, who are no doubt learning from Russia’s experience in Ukraine and doing what they can to improve their influence capabilities. The US military must do the same.

Captain Don Gomez is a psychological operations officer and student of information strategy and political warfare at the Naval Postgraduate School. Don is the deputy communications director at the Irregular Warfare Initiative.

Second Lieutenant Tucker Chase is an Army field artillery officer who holds a bachelor’s degree in defense and strategic studies from the United States Military Academy. He also serves as a research assistant for the Irregular Warfare Initiative.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.

Image credit: PavelDorogoy, via depositphotos.com

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mwi.usma.edu · by Don Gomez · September 1, 2022

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

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email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

V/R

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Phone: 202-573-8647

Personal Email: d avid.maxwell161@gmail.com

Web Site: www.fdd.org

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

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FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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