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Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"The worst difficulties from which we suffer do not come from without. They come from within. They do not come from the cottages of the wage-earners. They come from a peculiar type of brainy people always found in our country, who, if they add something to its culture, take much from its strength.
Our difficulties come from the mood of unwarrantable self-abasement into which we have been cast by a powerful section of our own intellectuals. They come from the acceptance of defeatist doctrines by a large proportion of our politicians.…Nothing can save England if she will not save herself. If we lose faith in ourselves, in our capacity to guide and govern, if we lose our will to live, then indeed our story is told.”
-Winston S. Churchill, vol. 5, pages 486-87

"People always say that I didn’t give up my seat because I was tired, but that isn’t true. I was not tired physically… No, the only tired I was, was tired of giving in."
- Rosa Parks

"It is the long history of humankind (and animal kind, too) that those who learned to collaborate and improvise most effectively have prevailed."
- Charles Darwin




1. EXCLUSIVE North Korea grows nuclear, missiles programs, profits from cyberattacks -U.N. report
2. Cryptocurrency Theft Remains Key Revenue Source for North Korea, UN Report Says
3. While Ukraine simmers, Offutt eyes North Korean missile tests
4. U.S., Japan, South Korea to discuss North Korea following recent missile launches
5. Seoul mulls management system like flu amid hike in COVID-19
6. North Korea’s Ticking COVID-19 Time Bomb
7. With election month away, Yoon, Lee neck and neck: surveys
8. ‘Someone else’s festival’: No North Korea at ally’s Olympics
9. North Korea: ‘Kim doesn’t just want more missiles, he wants better ones’
10. North Korean parliament scheduled to convene in Pyongyang
11. Difficult challenges await America's new South Korea ambassador




1. EXCLUSIVE North Korea grows nuclear, missiles programs, profits from cyberattacks -U.N. report

No surprise but good to see the UN panel of experts recognize this.

But has anyone seen the latest "confidential" report from the UN panel of experts? Perhaps if we had a US representative on the panel we might have access to the information.

Excerpts:

"Although no nuclear tests or launches of ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) were reported, DPRK continued to develop its capability for production of nuclear fissile materials," the experts wrote.
...
"Maintenance and development of DPRK's nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure continued, and DPRK continued to seek material, technology and know-how for these programs overseas, including through cyber means and joint scientific research," the report said.
...
The monitors said "cyberattacks, particularly on cryptocurrency assets, remain an important revenue source" for North Korea and that they had received information that North Korean hackers continued to target financial institutions, cryptocurrency firms and exchanges.
...
"Although maritime exports from DPRK of coal increased in the second half of 2021, they were still at relatively low levels," the monitors said.
"The quantity of illicit imports of refined petroleum increased sharply in the same period, but at a much lower level than in previous years," the report said. "Direct delivery by non-DPRK tankers to DPRK has ceased, probably in response to COVID-19 measures: instead, only DPRK tankers delivered oil."


EXCLUSIVE North Korea grows nuclear, missiles programs, profits from cyberattacks -U.N. report
Reuters · by Michelle Nichols
UNITED NATIONS, Feb 5 (Reuters) - North Korea continued to develop its nuclear and ballistic missile programs during the past year and cyberattacks on cryptocurrency exchanges were an important revenue source for Pyongyang, according to an excerpt of a confidential United Nations report seen on Saturday by Reuters.
The annual report by independent sanctions monitors was submitted on Friday evening to the U.N. Security Council North Korea sanctions committee.
"Although no nuclear tests or launches of ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) were reported, DPRK continued to develop its capability for production of nuclear fissile materials," the experts wrote.
North Korea is formally known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). It has long-been banned from conducting nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches by the U.N. Security Council.
"Maintenance and development of DPRK's nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure continued, and DPRK continued to seek material, technology and know-how for these programs overseas, including through cyber means and joint scientific research," the report said.
Since 2006, North Korea has been subject to U.N. sanctions, which the Security Council has strengthened over the years in an effort to target funding for Pyongyang's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
The sanctions monitors noted that there had been a "marked acceleration" of missile testing by Pyongyang.
The United States and others said on Friday that North Korea had carried out nine ballistic missile launches in January, adding it was the largest number in a single month in the history of the country's weapons of mass destruction and missile programs.
"DPRK demonstrated increased capabilities for rapid deployment, wide mobility (including at sea), and improved resilience of its missile forces," the sanctions monitors said.
North Korea's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
CYBERATTACKS, ILLICIT TRADE
The monitors said "cyberattacks, particularly on cryptocurrency assets, remain an important revenue source" for North Korea and that they had received information that North Korean hackers continued to target financial institutions, cryptocurrency firms and exchanges.
"According to a member state, DPRK cyberactors stole more than $50 million between 2020 and mid-2021 from at least three cryptocurrency exchanges in North America, Europe and Asia," the report said.
The monitors also cited a report last month by cybersecurity firm Chainalysis that said North Korea launched at least seven attacks on cryptocurrency platforms that extracted nearly $400 million worth of digital assets last year.
In 2019, the U.N. sanctions monitors reported that North Korea had generated an estimated $2 billion for its weapons of mass destruction programs using widespread and increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks.
The latest report said North Korea's strict blockade in response to the COVID-19 pandemic meant "illicit trade, including in luxury goods, has largely ceased."
Over the years the U.N. Security Council has banned North Korean exports including coal, iron, lead, textiles and seafood, and capped imports of crude oil and refined petroleum products.
"Although maritime exports from DPRK of coal increased in the second half of 2021, they were still at relatively low levels," the monitors said.
"The quantity of illicit imports of refined petroleum increased sharply in the same period, but at a much lower level than in previous years," the report said. "Direct delivery by non-DPRK tankers to DPRK has ceased, probably in response to COVID-19 measures: instead, only DPRK tankers delivered oil."
North Korea's humanitarian situation "continues to worsen," the report said. The monitors said that was probably due to the COVID-19 blockade, but that a lack of information from North Korea meant it was difficult to determine how much U.N. sanctions were unintentionally harming civilians.
Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by Daniel Wallis
Reuters · by Michelle Nichols


2. Cryptocurrency Theft Remains Key Revenue Source for North Korea, UN Report Says

The all purpose sword is a critical element of north Korean national power.


Cryptocurrency Theft Remains Key Revenue Source for North Korea, UN Report Says – Bitcoin News
news.bitcoin.com · by News · February 6, 2022



Cyberattacks on cryptocurrency exchanges have been a major source of funds for North Korea in the past year, a United Nations report has unveiled. According to the document, the sanctioned nation has also been developing its nuclear and missile programs.
North Korea Hits Cryptocurrency Exchanges, Sanctions Monitors Say
Hackers controlled by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) have continued to target financial institutions and crypto platforms such as exchanges, Reuters reported citing a confidential U.N. report. Its annual edition, produced by independent sanctions monitors and submitted to the Security Council North Korea sanctions committee on Friday, claims:
Cyberattacks, particularly on cryptocurrency assets, remain an important revenue source [for DPRK].
The report further details that according to a member state, “DPRK cyberactors stole more than $50 million between 2020 and mid-2021 from at least three cryptocurrency exchanges in North America, Europe and Asia.”
The monitors also quote an estimate by Chainalysis which recently revealed that the regime in Pyongyang has launched no less than seven attacks on crypto companies in 2021 resulting in the theft of almost $400 million in digital assets. “These attacks targeted primarily investment firms and centralized exchanges,” the blockchain analysis firm explained in January.
Back in 2019, the U.N. sanctions monitors announced that North Korea had accumulated an estimated $2 billion through increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks. The digital money was allegedly used to finance its weapons of mass destruction programs. Their latest report notes:
Although no nuclear tests or launches of ICBMs [intercontinental ballistic missiles] were reported, DPRK continued to develop its capability for production of nuclear fissile materials.
The authors are convinced that maintenance and development of North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure hasn’t stopped. They also point out that the country, which has been under U.N. sanctions since 2006, has accelerated its ballistic missile testing, having carried out nine launches in January, which is the largest monthly number to date.
Do you think North Korean hackers will continue to conduct cyberattacks against cryptocurrency exchanges? Let us know in the comments section below.

Lubomir Tassev
Lubomir Tassev is a journalist from tech-savvy Eastern Europe who likes Hitchens’s quote: “Being a writer is what I am, rather than what I do.” Besides crypto, blockchain and fintech, international politics and economics are two other sources of inspiration.
Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons


3. While Ukraine simmers, Offutt eyes North Korean missile tests

Excerpts:
Still, the barrage caused barely a diplomatic ripple, in the United States or internationally.
“Everybody’s pretty chill. I don’t know why people aren’t more worked up,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at California’s Middlebury Institute of International Studies. “They’re really going to expand their nuclear arsenal.”
One place where the launches were certainly closely watched was in StratCom’s underground Global Operations Center, at Offutt.
StratCom’s team of military and civilian monitors staff the command post 24/7, watching for threats to the United States via a worldwide system of sensors on land, at sea, in the air and in space.
“Every one of those launches, there are multiple people involved (at StratCom),” said Rick Evans, director of the University of Nebraska’s National Strategic Research Institute, a StratCom-funded academic alliance.






While Ukraine simmers, Offutt eyes North Korean missile tests
Omaha.com · by Steve Liewer World-Herald Staff Writer
The COVID-19 pandemic is already wreaking havoc on the post-flood reconstruction of Offutt Air Force Base
While the world watches Ukraine for signs of a Russian invasion, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been brandishing his nuclear sword in a way that is bound to draw attention in the command bunker at Offutt Air Force Base’s U.S. Strategic Command.
North Korea conducted 11 missile launches in January — compared with nine the entire previous year.

“It’s more than in any other single month in North Korean history,” said Ankit Panda, an Asia-Pacific expert with the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The flurry kicked off Jan. 5 with the first of two tests of new hypersonic missiles and concluded Jan. 30 with the launch of an intermediate-range Hwasong 12 rocket capable of reaching the U.S. territory of Guam.

People watch a file image of North Korea’s missile launch shown during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, on Jan. 20. North Korea conducted 11 missile launches in January — two more than it did the entire previous year.
Ahn Young-joon, Associated Press
The tests covered an array of systems, including cruise missiles and short-range ground-to-ground missiles, launched from trucks and others from trains.

Still, the barrage caused barely a diplomatic ripple, in the United States or internationally.


“Everybody’s pretty chill. I don’t know why people aren’t more worked up,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at California’s Middlebury Institute of International Studies. “They’re really going to expand their nuclear arsenal.”
One place where the launches were certainly closely watched was in StratCom’s underground Global Operations Center, at Offutt.


StratCom’s team of military and civilian monitors staff the command post 24/7, watching for threats to the United States via a worldwide system of sensors on land, at sea, in the air and in space.
“Every one of those launches, there are multiple people involved (at StratCom),” said Rick Evans, director of the University of Nebraska’s National Strategic Research Institute, a StratCom-funded academic alliance.

Evans, a retired Air Force major general, served in top leadership posts at StratCom during a previous series of missile tests in 2016 and 2017. Part of that time was as StratCom’s acting deputy commander, the second-highest ranking officer.



“That’s the time frame we saw (North Korea) get very active,” Evans said.
The 2016-17 launches numbered more than three dozen and included several tests of intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The sequence also included three underground tests of nuclear weapons. The explosions and missiles set off alarms at the Offutt command post.

“Literally, it’s a ‘ding,’” then-Col. Reyes Colón, a StratCom battle-watch commander from 2015-18, told The World-Herald in a 2016 interview. “That alerts me that there’s an event that’s going on.”
Evans said StratCom’s battle staff often knows in advance when a test is coming. Russia and China typically announce them in advance, so there is no mistake.


In the case of North Korea, the various intelligence streams that come from the U.S. and its allies in the region — notably, South Korea and Japan — may pick up clues.
One important intelligence source is the U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft that keep a close watch on North Korean activities — in particular, the 55th Wing’s RC-135 Rivet Joints, which are continuously deployed to Okinawa.


The Rivet Joints fly frequent tracks near North Korea’s borders, casting a surveillance net that can pick up a range of electronic signals up to 300 miles away. The four-engine jets carry interpreters who can translate intercepted radio communications.


Three Rivet Joints deployed to Japan conducted at least 13 flights over the Korean Peninsula in January, according to Amelia Smith, a hobbyist from Massachusetts who tracks military surveillance flights on public websites and tweets about them using the handle @ameliairheart.
Evans said the Rivet Joint’s constant data collection helps analysts notice when something is different and may be leading to a launch.
“They’re out there characterizing the battle space,” he said. “They’re flying missions every single day.”

With advance warning, the 55th Wing can also deploy the RC-135S Cobra Ball. The jet, distinctive because of its black right wing, carries gear that can record the sights and sounds of missiles in flight and gain critical knowledge about their capabilities.



Once StratCom’s network of sensors detect a launch, as it would have during the last month, it triggers a conference that may include representatives of Northern Command, Space Command, Indo-Pacific Command, U.S. Forces Japan and U.S. Forces Korea.

“Most launches are regional. They’re going almost straight up and straight down,” Evans said. “If it’s threatening the homeland, then you’ll have more people involved.”
That could mean activating missile defense batteries in Alaska and California, which were designed to counter small-scale strikes by rogue actors such as North Korea — “onesies and twosies,” Evans called them. In a dire situation, the president could be brought in.
North Korea’s launches over the past several months were telegraphed at a Communist Party Congress early last year, Panda said. Kim laid out a five-year plan that included development of a wide array of weapons: cruise missiles, anti-aircraft rocket systems, multiple-warhead missiles, tactical nuclear weapons, sub-launched missiles, even a “super-large hydrogen bomb,” according to the Stimson Center’s influential Korea-watching website, 38North.




Most of January’s tests involved smaller weapons and were predictable, Lewis said, which may account for the muted response compared with the worldwide outcry over the 2016-17 series.
“I don’t think we should freak out,” Lewis said. “It’s all stuff we’ve seen before in one form or another. On the other hand, these systems are all vastly improved.”
He described the deployment of missiles on railcars as “a really big deal.” He also sees the plan to build small battlefield nuclear weapons as ominous evidence of Kim’s willingness to actually use them — presumably in a conflict with South Korea.


South Korean army K-9 self-propelled howitzers move in Paju, near the border with North Korea, on Jan. 11. Leader Kim Jong Un has called to expand North Korea’s nuclear weapons program in defiance of international opposition.
Ahn Young-joon, Associated Press
“Kim wants the ability to use tactical nuclear weapons,” Lewis said. “They are now testing them — and no one seems to care.”
The end-of-the-month test of the Hwasong 12 prompted the biggest stir. Kim hadn’t launched one in more than four years, and it partially broke the unilateral moratorium on testing longer-range missiles he had announced in April 2018 as a “confidence-building” measure.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres issued a statement condemning the launch as a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. He expressed “great concern” and urged North Korea “to desist from taking any further counter-productive actions,” according to a U.N. spokesman.



The Biden administration called on North Korea to return to long-stalled talks on its nuclear and missile programs. Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, described the launches as “destabilizing to the region” and said the United States was still committed to its longstanding policy of removing all nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula.
But Panda said the denuclearization policy has little support outside the government, given how far North Korea has come in developing nuclear weapons.

“It came out of a time when the only nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula were American weapons,” Panda said. “Very few believe it’s realistic.”

Lewis goes further.
“It’s just totally delusional,” he said.
Lewis fears their success could give Kim the perceived security to return to an era when North Korea blew up commercial airliners and launched attacks on the South Korean government. In the late 1960s, North Korea shot down a Navy reconnaissance plane 90 miles from its shore and seized the Navy surveillance ship USS Pueblo and crew for 11 months.
“The North Koreans have made the kind of advances that give them a fighting chance,” Lewis said. “There’s a persistent risk of a serious crisis if the North Koreans push it too far.”




Evans described Kim as a “boisterous individual who likes to prove he’s important.”
“How do you get attention?” Evans said. “You shoot missiles.”
At the same time, with North Korea’s growing nuclear capabilities, he predicts Kim will remain a headache at StratCom.
“They’re still a rogue nation,” Evans said. “That’s got to worry us.”
This report includes material from the Associated Press.

4. U.S., Japan, South Korea to discuss North Korea following recent missile launches

I wish we could convince Japan and the ROK to cooperate in a large-scale information and influence operation against north Korea (and China). north Korea (and China) seeks to undermine US alliances and does not want trilateral ROK, Japan, and US cooperation. 

Our response to north Korea should be increased and aggressive trilateral cooperation. We need to show them that their actions cannot undermine the US alliance system and all their attacks on the alliances do is make them stronger.

I would recommend establishing a new trilateral exercise program. It would be simplest to start off with some combined air exercises. There are multiple ways to conduct such exercises. Next would be combined naval exercises. The most difficult would be combined land operations (where do you conduct the exercises on Japanese territory or Korean territory? - or perhaps in an allied country - the Philippines?) I would like to see a large-scale trilateral amphibious exercise landing on the Japanese north islands. Think of the message that might be sent to north Korea, China, and even Russia.

But I know this is all inthe too hard to do pile. That said, we need to convince the ROK and Japan that in the face of north Korean threats one of the most important responses is to increase trilateral cooperation (or at least minimize public bilateral friction and hostility). 



U.S., Japan, South Korea to discuss North Korea following recent missile launches
Reuters · by Reuters
WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. special representative for North Korea will meet with Japanese and South Korean officials later this week, the U.S. State Department said on Sunday, following a series of ballistic missile tests U.S. officials said Pyongyang launched last month.
U.S. Ambassador Sung Kim will travel to Honolulu from Feb. 10-15 to host a trilateral meeting "to discuss a broad range of issues, including the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," the department said in a statement.
North Korea has long been banned from conducting nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches by the U.N. Security Council, but the United States and others have said it carried out nine ballistic missile launches in January - the most in a single month in the history of the country's nuclear and missile programs.
The United Nations, in a confidential report seen by Reuters, said North Korea continued to develop its nuclear and ballistic missile programs during the past year in addition to cyberattacks on Cryptocurrency exchanges. [nL1N2UG0GA]
Japanese Director-General for Asian and Oceanian Affairs Funakoshi Takehiro and South Korea's Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs, Noh Kyu-duk, will also attend the meetings.
"The U.S. will reiterate its commitment to regional security and lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula," at a Feb. 12 Trilateral Ministerial meeting, the department added.

Reporting by Susan Heavey; Editing by Toby Chopra and Nick Macfie
Reuters · by Reuters

5. Seoul mulls management system like flu amid hike in COVID-19

Seoul mulls management system like flu amid hike in COVID-19
Posted February. 05, 2022 07:17,
Updated February. 05, 2022 07:17
Seoul mulls management system like flu amid hike in COVID-19. February. 05, 2022 07:17. becom@donga.com,ksy@donga.com.
The South Korean government said Friday that it will consider a plan to manage Covid-19 in the same way it manages seasonal influenza. It is the first time in more than 2 years since the first COVID-19 outbreak that the government has mentioned the possibility of ‘control of COVID-19 like flu.’ The government is mulling the measure because severe cases and the hospital bed occupancy rate are stable despite surging confirmed cases because it is the Omicron variant, whose fatality is relatively lower than the other variants, that is widely spreading.

“We will widely consider the possibility of transitioning into a healthcare and disease control system similar to that for influenza going forward,” the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters said in a press memo on Friday. That is, the government will seek to push for return to normalcy including easing of quarantine measures if the burden on the healthcare system, including the number of available hospital beds, and the disease fatality rate remain at a stable level despite a surge in confirmed cases.

The government has decided to introduce so-called “self-epidemiological investigation’ across the nation from Monday. A confirmed patient will thus be able to submit data on his or her identification, underlying health condition and household members in person rather than through an epidemiologist to the public health center’s website. From Monday, people aged 50 and older (rather than 60 and older) will be eligible for Pfizer’s COVID-19 pill ‘Paxlovid’ if he or she has underlying diseases including high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.
6. North Korea’s Ticking COVID-19 Time Bomb
Yes I think ticking time bomb may be an apt analogy.

North Korea’s Ticking COVID-19 Time Bomb
Like many, North Korea’s initial calculation may have been that there would be an eventual end to the pandemic.
thediplomat.com · by Justin Fendos · February 5, 2022
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Korea observers have undoubtedly spent the bulk of January analyzing Pyongyang’s most recent ballistic missile tests. A variety of angles have been taken, with some speculating about motivations while others have focused on potential advancements in technology. Given the fact that similar events in the past have tended to function as a prelude to bartering with South Korea, the United States, and Japan, it seems plausible Pyongyang is again signaling a desire for dialogue.
When considering possible North Korean asks, two items immediately present themselves as likely candidates: economic relief and food aid. Throughout the pandemic, North Korea has operated what can only be described as a complete lockdown, isolating itself from international contact, even from its closest trading partner: China. It is estimated that trade with China, which had accounted for over 90 percent of all North Korea’s pre-pandemic exchange, declined by more than 80 percent during the pandemic, with the value of Chinese exports to North Korea dropping to less than 1 percent of previous figures in 2020 and recovering to only 12 percent in 2021.
Food insecurity, which describes the risk of starvation, was estimated to affect 43 percent of all North Koreans in 2019. Mid-pandemic numbers are unavailable but stalled trade and powerful typhoons in 2020 are likely to have increased this number significantly in 2021, prompting Kim Jong Un to admit last June that the nation’s food situation was “getting tense.” South Korea’s National Intelligence Service subsequently revealed Kim had issued a national decree for all civilians to devote “every effort” to farming and securing “every grain of rice” possible in the fall.
In addition to being unable to import food, fuel, fertilizer, and textiles, another key objective often overlooked by foreign observers is Pyongyang’s desire to acquire COVID-19 vaccines. Since early 2021, North Korea has been in repeated contact with COVAX and other U.N. entities in charge of international vaccine distribution. In March, the U.N. allocated 8.1 million doses for North Korea, enough to inoculate over 15 percent of its population. These deliveries were never made, however, apparently over concerns with storage, distribution, and legal indemnity against post-injection side effects. The resulting impasse prompted a second offer of 3 million doses of Chinese Sinovac vaccine, which Pyongyang rejected for reasons that remain unclear.
Like most other countries, it seems likely North Korea’s initial calculation was that there would be an eventual end to the pandemic, after which the country could reopen, resuming pre-pandemic business as usual. Given the continuing emergence of mutational variants, however, the world is now coming to grips with the reality that COVID-19 is here to stay, necessitating an alternative approach that focuses on coexistence. Interpreted differently, this means every person on the planet is essentially guaranteed, at some point, to encounter the virus, much like all of us are destined to eventually catch the common cold. For a hungry, underdeveloped, unvaccinated country like North Korea, the potential consequences of this reality are nothing short of daunting.
Perhaps the most convincing sign of North Korean desperation comes through a recent report that Pyongyang temporarily reopened some rail services to China in the last week of January. Many speculate this was part of an effort to receive badly needed food supplies. With Chinese vaccines known to be less effective against the Omicron variant and reports of large-scale lockdowns across China, indicating infections there are likely more common than reported through official figures, Pyongyang must be aware that contact with its northern neighbor, however minor, comes with the serious risk of allowing coronavirus to enter the country. Similar risks apply to aid set to be provided by a South Korean humanitarian group, which recently received U.N. exemption to deliver healthcare supplies. Even if all Chinese and South Korean delivery personnel are vaccinated, this does not prevent them from being capable of transmitting the virus to North Korean recipients.
Thus far, the North Korean lockdown does appear to have protected the country from a significant outbreak. Reliable reports of North Korean COVID-19 cases are, of course, hard to come by, but it does appear the country has not yet suffered any large-scale epidemic, something that would be exceeding difficult even for North Korean officials to hide. Given that the North Korean healthcare system is utterly ill-equipped to deal with such an event, any subsequent fallout would be calamitous. With preventative measures like masking now known to be significantly less effective against the Omicron variant, it is exceedingly unlikely that sustained international contact can be conducted in a way that totally prevents virus transmission. Despite the risks, North Korea’s recent moves can only indicate that some significant tipping point of desperation has been reached, necessitating the acceptance of this danger.
With mounting evidence demonstrating that COVID-19 hospitalizations and death are significantly reduced by vaccination, even for Omicron, North Korean authorities are sure to have reached the correct conclusion that mass vaccination is now the only viable way to emerge from the pandemic unscathed. This means Pyongyang is essentially on the clock in acquiring significant vaccine contributions to stave off outbreaks while simultaneously maintaining international aid imports.
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Many will argue the added leverage of this desperation may be just the thing to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table, creating a new opportunity for nuclear disarmament. Others will suggest the situation should be exploited further to force the North Korean regime into collapse, an outcome that is not necessarily guaranteed even if the country were to suffer a full-blown epidemic on a national scale. The latter event would also entail a great loss of civilian life, something that a timely offer of vaccines could help avoid. Given that the Biden administration has repeatedly signaled a willingness to consider vaccine contributions, we should expect such offers to play a central role in any upcoming deliberations.
GUEST AUTHOR
Justin Fendos

Justin Fendos is a professor at Dongseo University in South Korea.
thediplomat.com · by Justin Fendos · February 5, 2022

7. With election month away, Yoon, Lee neck and neck: surveys

Looks like it will be a very tight race.

(2nd LD) With election month away, Yoon, Lee neck and neck: surveys | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · February 6, 2022
(ATTN: ADDS more poll results in last 5 paras)
SEOUL, Feb. 6 (Yonhap) -- With election day just a month away, Yoon Suk-yeol, the presidential nominee of the main opposition People Power Party, is still neck and neck with ruling Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung, two surveys showed Sunday.
According to a survey of 1,006 adults conducted last Thursday and Friday by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI), Yoon is leading Lee with 37.2 percent support against 35.1 percent.
The difference between the two was 2.1 percentage points, which was within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level
In third place was Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the minor opposition People's Party, at 8.4 percent, followed by Sim Sang-jeung of the minor progressive Justice Party at 2.2 percent.
Another survey of 1,076 adults, conducted last Thursday and Friday by Realmeter, showed that Yoon is leading Lee with 43.3 percent support against 41.8 percent.
The gap was 1.5 percentage points, which was within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
Ahn came in third with 7.5 percent, followed by Sim with 2.6 percent, according to the Realmeter survey.
The two surveys were conducted after the four candidates held their first TV debate.

A separate survey of 1,015 adults, conducted by Realmeter from last Thursday to Saturday, showed that 24.7 percent of respondents changed their candidate support after watching the TV debate.
In comparison, 68 percent said they did not change their candidate support after the TV debate.
When asked who had the best showing in the TV debate, 40.4 percent chose Yoon and 37.8 percent picked Lee.
The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
Two more polls, released by Southern Post and Embrain Public later in the day, also showed Lee and Yoon in a tight race.
The Southern Post survey, conducted last Friday and Saturday on 1,001 voters and commissioned by broadcasting firm CBS, put support for Yoon at 36.8 percent as opposed to Lee's 31.7 percent.
The 5.1 percent gap was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The poll has a confidence level of 95 percent.
In the Embrain Public survey, conducted last Friday and Saturday on 1,005 voters and commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo daily, Lee had 38.1 percent support to Yoon's 36.8 percent.
The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with a confidence level at 95 percent.
kdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · February 6, 2022
8. ‘Someone else’s festival’: No North Korea at ally’s Olympics

Remember that north Korea was suspended by the IOC.

Excerpts:

The North, however, announced it was skipping the Games because of the coronavirus pandemic and moves by “hostile forces,” and has ignored Seoul and Washington’s repeated offers for talks as it restarted missile tests.
Last September, the International Olympic Committee suspended North Korea until the end of 2022 for refusing to send a team to the Tokyo Summer Olympics in 2021, which Pyongyang also skipped because of the virus. Still, there were hopes in Seoul that the Beijing Olympics could help ease Korean animosities — and the IOC left the door open for athletes to compete, if not represent their country. But the North did not walk through it.
North Korea’s decision to avoid the Olympics, even as it proceeds with a tentative reopening of land-based trade with China following two years of pandemic border closures and economic decay, could reflect Pyongyang’s frustration with Seoul and its inability to extract concessions from Washington on its behalf, said Moon Seong Mook, an analyst for the Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
Even with the IOC ban, Moon, the analyst, said, the North “still could have pursued diplomatic opportunities on the sidelines, with the Games being hosted by ally China.” Instead, the North Koreans are “saying that they don’t want to get involved at all.”

‘Someone else’s festival’: No North Korea at ally’s Olympics
North Korea hasn't sent any athletes and officials to it neighbor's Olympics.

China's team enters the opening ceremony of the 2022 Olympics in Beijing.<br/>
By Associated Press
02/05/2022 08:33 AM EST
SEOUL, South Korea — During the last Winter Games, North Korea basked in the global limelight in South Korea, with hundreds of athletes, cheerleaders and officials pushing hard to woo their South Korean and U.S. rivals in a bid for diplomacy that has since stalled.
Four years later, as the 2022 Winter Olympics come to its main ally and neighbor China, North Korea isn’t sending any athletes and officials — ignoring the International Olympic Committee’s suggestion that individual athletes could potentially compete despite a ban on the country. And though the country again finds itself on the world stage, this time it is because of belligerence, not charm, in the shape of a fast-paced string of increasingly powerful missile tests.

These tests are likely an attempt to do two things at once: perfect still-incomplete weapons systems that the North feels it needs to protect itself from its enemies, while also using the worry over those improving systems to wrest outside concessions and sanctions relief from the United States and South Korea.
Even if Pyongyang pauses or curtails those tests during the 17-day sporting spectacle that opened Friday — in a nod to its benefactor Beijing — experiments on bigger weapons, including ICBMs and nuclear bombs, could follow the Games, experts say. That’s especially true as South Korean presidential elections, U.S.-South Korean military drills and several important North Korean anniversaries are approaching.

“For North Korea, the Beijing Olympics are still someone else’s festival, and what’s important now is furthering their own interests,” said Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Korea University in South Korea. “North Korea thinks it doesn’t need to promote a peaceful image any longer through the Olympics as the United States will only notice them when they display a hardline posture by missile launches.”
North Korea has often used Olympics and other sports events for political purposes, perhaps most spectacularly at the Pyeongchang Winter Games four years ago in the South.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un dispatched his powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, the first member of that ruling family to walk on South Korean soil since the Korean War, to the frigid opening ceremony. There, she sat in the same viewing box as the South Korean president and U.S. vice president.
None of North Korea’s 22 athletes won a medal. But the country made a huge impression in the viewing stands, where its all-female cheering squads, dressed in matching red jumpsuits, performed meticulously choreographed routines alongside South Korean fans as they rooted for the Koreas’ first combined Olympic team in women’s ice hockey.
There was similar cooperation during the so-called Sunshine Era of the late 1990s and early 2000s, when North Korea received huge aid shipments from South Korea and the North frequently allowed its players to parade together with South Koreans at Olympics and other sports events.
The good feelings between the Koreas in Pyeongchang helped lay the ground for leader Kim to reach out to then-U.S. President Donald Trump for high-stakes nuclear summit talks later in 2018. Their diplomacy, however, collapsed the next year after Trump rebuffed Kim’s calls for needed sanctions relief in return for limited denuclearization.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in, a key player in the 2018 Olympics diplomacy, made a strong push to use the Beijing Games as yet another venue for Korean peace. He sought to have the leaders of the Koreas, the United States and China gather in Beijing and symbolically declare an end to the 1950-53 Korean War, which still technically continues.
The North, however, announced it was skipping the Games because of the coronavirus pandemic and moves by “hostile forces,” and has ignored Seoul and Washington’s repeated offers for talks as it restarted missile tests.
Last September, the International Olympic Committee suspended North Korea until the end of 2022 for refusing to send a team to the Tokyo Summer Olympics in 2021, which Pyongyang also skipped because of the virus. Still, there were hopes in Seoul that the Beijing Olympics could help ease Korean animosities — and the IOC left the door open for athletes to compete, if not represent their country. But the North did not walk through it.
North Korea’s decision to avoid the Olympics, even as it proceeds with a tentative reopening of land-based trade with China following two years of pandemic border closures and economic decay, could reflect Pyongyang’s frustration with Seoul and its inability to extract concessions from Washington on its behalf, said Moon Seong Mook, an analyst for the Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
Even with the IOC ban, Moon, the analyst, said, the North “still could have pursued diplomatic opportunities on the sidelines, with the Games being hosted by ally China.” Instead, the North Koreans are “saying that they don’t want to get involved at all.”
More than that, the North has pursued a course that the West sees as provocative.
In January alone, North Korea carried out seven rounds of missiles tests, including a medium-range weapon capable of hitting the Pacific U.S. territory of Guam. That is a record monthly number of weapons tests since Kim assumed power in December 2011. North Korea also recently threatened to lift a four-year moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear tests.
While Chinese officials may have been unhappy about North Korea’s testing spree right before the start of the Games, China seems publicly willing to tolerate the tests amid a growing confrontation with Washington.
The North certainly needs China. Beijing is North Korea’s economic pipeline, and its support is crucial if the North is going to revive its pandemic-battered economy. On Friday, Kim sent a message to Chinese President Xi Jinping saying the Beijing Olympics “strikingly demonstrate the dynamic spirits of China” and that he would boost bilateral ties to a new high stage with Xi.
Many observers are predicting a host of weapons tests after the Games meant to increase pressure on Washington.
Those could include a submarine-launched missile, a longer-range missile capable of reaching the American homeland or a nuclear device. Other options are a banned rocket launch to place a spy satellite into orbit or unveiling an advanced submarine.
The North may want these tests as a way to influence or draw attention to the March 9 presidential election in South Korea, the annual U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises in March, or the 110th birth anniversary of state founder Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, on April 15.
It’s unclear whether any attention-getting launches will result in the United States giving North Korea sanctions relief, international recognition as a legitimate nuclear state or security guarantees.
The Biden administration has offered open-ended talks but has showed no willingness to ease the sanctions unless North Korea takes real steps to abandon its nuclear weapons program. North Korea, for its part, has said it won’t return to talks unless the United States drops its hostile policies first, which may be a reference to U.S. troops stationed in the South and international sanctions against its illicit weapons program.
If past events are any indication, Pyongyang and Washington could eventually meet again after a period of elevated confrontation, something the nations have repeatedly done since the first North Korean nuclear crisis in the early 1990s.
But Nam, the professor, said it’s unlikely that U.S.-North Korea relations will have any major breakthrough under the Biden administration.
“In the past 30 years, they’ve confronted each other to an extreme degree before meeting again and reaching some deals,” said Kim Yeol Soo, an expert at South Korea’s Korea Institute for Military Affairs. “What’s scary in this repeated process is the fact that North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have continuously advanced in the meantime.”



9. North Korea: ‘Kim doesn’t just want more missiles, he wants better ones’

Yep. Or perhaps "more better." Useful graphics.



North Korea: ‘Kim doesn’t just want more missiles, he wants better ones’
Financial Times · by Christian Davies · February 6, 2022
North Korea last month fired a ballistic missile capable of hitting the US territory of Guam, the latest in a record flurry of tests that demonstrated the unrelenting progress of the country’s illicit nuclear weapons programme.
But of all the missile systems tested in recent weeks, it is the development of a new generation of manoeuvrable weapons designed to evade missile defence systems that has most intrigued defence experts.
“Kim Jong Un [the North Korean leader] doesn’t just want more missiles, he wants better missiles,” said Ankit Panda, a nuclear weapons expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“The qualitative arms race has kicked off in a very big way.”
Unlike a ballistic missile, which follows a predictable parabolic trajectory affected only by gravity and atmospheric drag, a manoeuvrable missile’s path can be changed mid-flight through the manipulation of fins or winglets and, in some cases, propulsion systems such as air-breathing engines.
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On January 5, North Korea’s Academy of National Defense Science oversaw the launch of a rocket fitted with a conical “manoeuvring re-entry vehicle” (MaRV).
According to North Korean state media, the vehicle made a “120km lateral movement in the flight path” before hitting its target in waters 700km from the launch site in the northern Chagang province.
Six days later, a leather-clad Kim attended the test of a rocket fitted with a “hypersonic gliding warhead” that made a “gliding re-leap” and 240km lateral manoeuvre before hitting its target.
Kim Jong Un watches a rocket test in North Korea on January 11, one in a record series of launches last month © KCNA via KNS/Reuters
Such weapons are often described as “hypersonic”, a term used to describe any projectile that travels at five times the speed of sound or faster. But experts stressed that it was the weapons’ manoeuvrability, not their speed, that distinguished them from other types of missiles.
“There are really three motivations for developing manoeuvrable missiles,” said Steven Dunham, a launch systems analyst at The Aerospace Corporation, a US federally funded research and development centre in Los Angeles.
“First, you’ve got to hit the target you want to destroy with the accuracy that’s required. Second, in order to do that, you need to be able to evade or avoid the missile defences that surround the target. And third, you need to have the range in order to be able to reach that target,” he said.
Missiles able to change their trajectory can be both more precise and much harder to intercept and destroy.
Delivery vehicles that glide at low altitudes are also more likely to evade the attention of radar systems — such as South Korea’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system — that are designed to detect ballistic missiles travelling at much higher altitudes.

The US, China, Russia, Iran and South Korea, among others, have been developing manoeuvrable missiles, in some cases for decades. Last year, the Financial Times revealed that China had tested a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of orbiting the globe before re-entering the earth’s atmosphere.
“There is a misapprehension that manoeuvrable weapons are some kind of new, niche threat,” said Sam Wilson, senior policy analyst at The Aerospace Corporation. “In fact, most missiles being developed around the world are manoeuvrable to some degree.”
But analysts worry that North Korea’s manoeuvrable weapons, in addition to the progress it has made developing “solid-fuel” missiles that can be deployed with less warning, raise the risk of a disastrous miscalculation on the Korean peninsula.

South Korea’s defence strategy envisages “kill chain” pre-emptive strikes against North Korean missile systems in the face of an imminent attack.
Last month, Yoon Seok-youl, the conservative candidate in March’s South Korean presidential election, said a pre-emptive strike was the “only method” of preventing an attack from a nuclear missile capable of travelling at hypersonic speeds.
“What’s concerning is that if you look at North Korea’s plans to shoot first, and you look at how South Korea plans to react to North Korea’s plan to shoot first, you realise that both their policies are to shoot first,” said Carnegie Endowment’s Panda. “It’s the classic reciprocal fear of surprise attack scenario.”
Observers said Pyongyang would continue to exploit a divided and distracted international community as it checks off items on a weapons wish list announced by Kim last year.
“For the US to break the impasse, it has to give the North Koreans something ‘big’, and that would require giving sanctions relief of some kind,” said Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst based at the Wilson Center think-tank in Washington. “But how can the Biden administration realistically do so when the North tested seven missiles in 25 days?”
In the meantime, said Aerospace Corporation’s Dunham, it was imperative that defence planners started to put manoeuvrable weapons at the heart of their thinking.
“This evolution towards manoeuvrability really threatens the foundation of our historical approaches to both missile defence and missile warning systems,” said Dunham. “The threat has outgrown the language we have available to discuss and define the problems that we need to solve.”
What are manoeuvrable missiles?
A railway-borne missile is launched during firing drills last month at an undisclosed location in North Korea © KCNA/Reuters
A missile system consists of a rocket — or booster — and a weaponised payload that delivers a warhead to its target. Some are non-separating or “unitary” missiles, while others have detachable payloads.
Ballistic warheads follow a predictable parabolic trajectory — akin to a cannonball — affected only by gravity and atmospheric drag.
Typically fitted to ballistic missile boosters, aerodynamic vehicles are weaponised payloads that can be manoeuvred through the use of aerodynamic control surfaces such as fins and winglets.
There are several types of aerodynamic vehicles, including manoeuvring re-entry vehicles and hypersonic glide vehicles. While the term “hypersonic missile” is often used as shorthand for these manoeuvrable weapons, experts said this was misleading: almost all missiles that travel several hundred kilometres or more reach hypersonic speeds.
A fractional orbital bombardment system is a delivery system that sends a weaponised payload into orbit, where it circles the earth until a rocket attached to the warhead slows it down and allows it to re-enter the earth’s atmosphere and speed towards its target.
Sources: The Aerospace Corporation, The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, FT research
Financial Times · by Christian Davies · February 6, 2022

10. North Korean parliament scheduled to convene in Pyongyang

I would just add that in the history of party meetings and statements, as well as strategic and party documents and its constitution, there has never been a statement of policy that the regime intendess to denuclearize. Statements at Panmunjom or in Singapore are not the same as the regime establishing a real policy to denuclearize. 

I doubt very much if this party meeting will result in a policy change that says the regime will pursue denuclearization.


Sunday
February 6, 2022

North Korean parliament scheduled to convene in Pyongyang

Kim Jong-un
 
North Korea was scheduled to convene a rare meeting of its national legislature on Sunday, possibly providing an opportunity for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to send a message directed at South Korea or the United States.
 
The Supreme People's Assembly (SPA), which is nominally the highest law-making body under the North Korean constitution but effectively functions as a rubber-stamp parliament, was due to hold its meeting in Pyongyang on Feb. 6. The gathering, which is the 6th session of the 14th SPA, was scheduled at a plenary session of the standing committee of the SPA held in December last year.
 
As of press time, neither the North's official Korean Central News Agency or Rodong Sinmun had confirmed that the SPA meeting took place. 
 
The meeting is expected to confirm state and party policies that were already decided at the fourth plenary session of the ruling Korean Workers’ Party at the end of last year, including national budgets and projects for 2022 and other pieces of legislation.
 
However, it remains to be seen whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-un issued a message directed at the United States and South Korea.
 
Kim was not selected for a five-year term as an SPA representative in March 2019, but he is frequently invited to speak at the legislature.
 
At the first meeting of the 14th SPA in April 2019, Kim said he was willing to hold the third U.S.-North Korea summit, while Kim delivered a speech on the second day of the 5th meeting where he declared his intention to restore communication channels with Seoul.
 
He also expressed his distrust of the United States and showed readiness to continue pursuing nuclear and missile development.
 
However, the North Korean leader was absent from the second meeting of the legislature in August 2019, the third meeting in April 2020, and the fourth meeting in January last year.
 
In the absence of any messages aimed at the United States or South Korea, observers are also watching Sunday’s meeting closely for any foreign policy cues that might hint at Pyongyang’s next steps. 
 
North Korea has ratcheted up tensions with South Korea and the United States by conducting seven tests of hypersonic cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and one intermediate-range ballistic missile in the new year. 
 
Pyongyang’s state media also announced that the Workers’ Party Politburo was reviewing the possibility of scrapping a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile testing, which has been in place since late 2017. 
 
The SPA is also expected to set goals for certain mid-term projects, such as emergency disease control measures, rural development and alleviating food shortages, which were discussed at the party’s plenary session. 
 
The legislature may also issue a statement urging the strengthening of internal solidarity and economic growth on the occasion of late leader Kim Jong-il’s 80th birthday, which falls on Feb. 16, and the 110th birthday of the country’s founder Kim Il-Sung.
 
Kim Jong-un will also mark his 10th year in power this coming April.

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]


11. Difficult challenges await America's new South Korea ambassador

Excerpt:

The job of ambassador, however, will go beyond North Korean issues. Victor Cha, who served as National Security Council director for Asian affairs in the George W. Bush presidency and is now a professor at Georgetown University, notes that the left and right in Korea “also disagree on important alliance issues; energy and climate change issues; dealing with China; and whether South Korea should pursue a seat at the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (known as the Quad), composed of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia.”


Difficult challenges await America's new South Korea ambassador
The Hill · by Donald Kirk, opinion contributor · February 5, 2022

A new U.S. ambassador is waiting in the wings to go to South Korea and deal with the winner of its hotly contested presidential election in March. Philip Goldberg, the ambassador to Colombia, is reported as the administration’s pick for the post, not filled for more than a year.
Goldberg still needs to go through the process of approval by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and then the full Senate. He’s reputed, however, as a hard-liner on North Korea on the basis of his service more than a decade ago with the State Department trying to get the United Nations to enforce sanctions against the North for its nuclear and missile tests.
By the time Goldberg gets to Seoul, South Korea will have a new president and we’ll have a pretty good idea of the state of play of the confrontation between North and South Korea, including the latest convolutions of the South’s policy toward the North and the North’s drive to heighten tensions with missile tests and possibly a seventh nuclear test. Goldberg’s goal will be to preserve America’s “unbreakable bond” with South Korea while insisting that North Korea show substantive signs of giving up its nuclear program as a prerequisite for dialogue and a new agreement for easing tensions.
Interestingly, President Biden, no doubt on the advice of the National Security Council and State Department, did not fill the ambassador’s post since the departure in January 2021 of Harry Harris, a retired admiral and former commander of U.S. Forces in the Pacific. Although no one officially has acknowledged why the post remains vacant, the reason often advanced in Seoul is that the U.S. has been waiting until the election of a successor to President Moon Jae-in, a liberal who yearns for a declaration proclaiming a formal end to the Korean War.
By postponing the appointment, the U.S. could quietly show its distaste for any end-of-war declaration that would lead to a peace treaty in place of the armistice signed in July 1953. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has refused to engage in dialogue with the U.S. or South Korea for nearly three years and, in defiance of sanctions, has ordered a rapid succession of missile tests seen as a prelude to the North’s first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile since November 2017. It’s even believed Kim may be laying the groundwork for the North’s first nuclear test since September 2017.
The Biden administration in theory would like to reverse the negative trend in U.S. efforts at reconciliation with the North, which soured with the failure of the summit in Hanoi in February 2019 between Kim and former President Trump. That was eight months after Trump, in the first meeting between a U.S. president and a North Korean leader, signed a vague statement with Kim in Singapore promising to work toward “a nuclear-free Korean peninsula.” Harris, arriving in Seoul in July 2019 as ambassador, upset the Moon administration by opposing any end-of-war declaration as long as Kim remained adamant against giving up his nuclear weapons and the missiles to send warheads to distant targets.
There’s no way that Goldberg can settle in as ambassador in Seoul before the South Koreans on March 9 choose between candidates with sharply differing views on North Korea, but he’ll definitely be watching carefully while deciding how to deal with the winner. The polls show a tight contest between the left-leaning Lee Jae-myung, former governor of the province surrounding Seoul, who undoubtedly would pursue reconciliation and appeasement with the North, and the conservative Yoon Suk-yeol, a former prosecutor who wants to “rebuild” relations with the U.S. and insists the North has to give up its nukes as a condition for a deal.
Goldberg brings a long record of careful, calculating diplomacy as ambassador to difficult regimes. A Spanish-speaking Latin America specialist, he’s still ambassador to Colombia and served as ambassador to the Philippines before being replaced by Sung Kim, former ambassador to Korea who’s now special representative for North Korea policy. Goldberg is fully expected to pursue demands for denuclearization but may temper them with the lure of humanitarian aid and possible relaxation of sanctions in the hope of drawing the North into dialogue.
Goldberg’s most difficult challenge will be to preserve the U.S.-South Korean military alliance as a robust antidote to North Korea’s dream of ending the alliance and abolishing the UN Command under which the U.S., South Korea and 16 other countries fought the North Koreans and Chinese in the Korean War. In the process, North Korea would hope to bring about the withdrawal of America’s 28,500 troops from South Korea. One particular goal would be to ensure the continuity of joint military exercises, conducted largely on computers since Trump canceled the exercises in 2018 after meeting Kim in Singapore. U.S. commanders say computer games are no substitute for on-the-ground maneuvers by U.S. and South Korean forces and they are eager to restore them to that level.
The job of ambassador, however, will go beyond North Korean issues. Victor Cha, who served as National Security Council director for Asian affairs in the George W. Bush presidency and is now a professor at Georgetown University, notes that the left and right in Korea “also disagree on important alliance issues; energy and climate change issues; dealing with China; and whether South Korea should pursue a seat at the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (known as the Quad), composed of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia.”
Donald Kirk has been a journalist for more than 60 years, focusing much of his career on conflict in Asia and the Middle East, including as a correspondent for the Washington Star and Chicago Tribune. He currently is a freelance correspondent covering North and South Korea. He is the author of several books about Asian affairs.
The Hill · by Donald Kirk, opinion contributor · February 5, 2022





V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
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FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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