Quotes of the Day:
"No leader should put troops into the field merely to gratify his own spleen; no leader should fight a battle simply out of pique. But a kingdom that has once been destroyed can never come again into being; nor can the dead ever be brought back to life. Hence the enlightened leader is heedful, and the good leader full of caution."
-Sun Tzu
"As in political revolutions, so in paradigm choice-there is no standard higher than the assent of the relevant community... this issue of paradigm choice can never be unequivocally settled by logic and experiment alone."
-Thomas Kuhn
"The day knowledge was preferred to wisdom and mere usefulness to beauty. . . . Only a moral revolution -- not a social or a political revolution -- only a moral revolution would lead man back to his lost truth."
- Simone de Beauvoir
1. North Koreans Resentful of Missile Launches Amid Hunger and Poverty
2. U.S. remains open to dialogue with N. Korea: State Dept.
3. Six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program may resume in 2021 — source
4. An arms race is heating up on the Korean Peninsula. Is the window for diplomacy closing?
5. North Korea Is on a Mission to Kill U.S. Missile Defenses
6. Peace process paradox: Why Moon is bolstering S. Korea’s armaments
7. EXPLAINER: Kim's launches show push to boost nuke arsenal
8. It’s the Launcher, Not the Missile: Initial Evaluation of North Korea’s Rail-Mobile Missile Launches
9. China's August exports to North Korea up for third month
10. BTS heads to New York for U.N. event as special presidential envoy
1. North Koreans Resentful of Missile Launches Amid Hunger and Poverty
You cannot eat missiles. I dream of a ROK/US comprehensive information and influence campaign. There is no target more ready for information and more vulnerable to influence. I beg our leaders in Seoul and Washington to develop, execute, and sustain an information and influence activities campaign.
Voice of America and Radio Free Asia are doing tremendous work getting information into north Korea. That is their mission, simply to bring the news and truth from the outside world to the Korean people living in the north. However, we need additional lines of influence effort and we need a comprehensive campaign plan focused on achieving specific effects among the leadership, the 2d tier leadership, and the population across the classes of Songbun.
And thank you to Radio Free Asia bringing this kind of information out of north Korea through their contacts inside north Korea.
North Koreans Resentful of Missile Launches Amid Hunger and Poverty
Citizens are also criticizing frivolous military parades when soldiers are not properly fed.
Citizens in North Korea are becoming increasingly angry that state media is touting this week’s cruise missile tests as a major national defense achievement when many are struggling to find their next meal, sources in the country told RFA.
Pyongyang over the weekend tested a new long-range cruise missile with a range of 1,500 kilometers (930 miles), which puts targets in Japan within reach. Cruise missiles are low-flying and harder to defend against than ballistic missiles.
North Korea also conducted ballistic missile tests on Wednesday, launches which coincided with a South Korean submarine-launched missile test, a visit to Seoul by China’s foreign minister, and a three-way meeting between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington to discuss North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
Chronically short of food, North Korea has seen starvation deaths this year in the wake of the closure of the Sino-Korean border and suspension of trade with China in Jan. 2020 to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Against that backdrop, citizens are grumbling that their government does not care about their plight.
“The people are so antipathetic, asking how the authorities can do such things as if they don’t know that many of us here are starving because of this economic crisis,” said a resident of the northeastern coastal city of Hamhung, in South Hamgyong province.
“The people say that Kim Jong Un doesn’t even know that the people are starving and he’s doing things like that,” the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told RFA’s Korean Service.
Missile tests, many people say, are meaningless when the army cannot even feed its soldiers, according to the source.
“They are saying that the People’s Army can’t fight a war because the soldiers are subsisting on corn and rice, and they can’t survive in the military unless their family sends money to support their military life,” said the source.
“Things have not changed in the slightest since the era of Kim Jong Il, when the government was saying the military was not afraid of war and that we had the greatest armed force in the world with our missiles and our troops,” the source said.
Kim Jong Il, leader Kim Jong Un’s father and predecessor, was in power during the 1994-1998 North Korean famine, which killed as many as 10 percent of the country’s then population of 22 million.
The source said the lack of nutrition for soldiers was more dangerous to them than any external threat.
“They don’t have the strength to even hold bullets. If you don’t have money to send to your enlisted son, you have to steal for him,” said the source.
“Now the state is widely promoting that this new long-range cruise missile is another deterrence method that will guarantee the safety of the country and will suppress military action against our republic by hostile forces,” the second source said.
But many in North Korea disagree with this approach and would prefer that the government ask the outside world for help, according to the source.
“They say it’s wrong to block dialogue with the outside and focus only on missile development. It’s an act of self-destruction and threatens the safety of the nation and the people.”
Another source, a resident of North Hamgyong province’s Rason city, which lies within a Special Economic Zone near the Chinese and Russian borders, told RFA that state propaganda is describing the long-range cruise missile tests as an act of self-defense that supports peace.
“People are reacting harshly, saying they don’t understand how,” said the second source, who requested anonymity to speak freely.
“They say the government has no interest in the people’s livelihood in this crisis, and they are only doing things like this to enhance their prestige,” the second source said.
With North Korea reeling from the prolonged coronavirus pandemic, food shortages, and recent flood damage, they think the missile launches are tone-deaf, according to the second source.
“Naturally the relatively few government officials who will remain in power only if they continue to develop missiles are all positive about the news of the missile launch,” the second source said.
“But the majority of residents express strong concern and resentment, saying, ‘North Korea’s missile provocation is an act of self-harm that destroys people’s livelihood and leads the country to self-destruction.’”
Frivolous Parades
This picture taken on September 9, 2021 and released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (C) taking part in a parade of 'paramilitary and public security forces' to celebrate the 73rd founding anniversary of North Korea at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang. Credit: STR / KCNA VIA KNS / AFP
North Koreans are also tired of the county’s frequent military parades, dismissing them as ploys to distract the masses during the severe economic crisis.
North Korea last week held a midnight parade in the capital Pyongyang last week to commemorate the 73rd anniversary of the founding of the country.
“The people reacted coldly to the news of the parade, which included members of the various civil defense forces,” a resident of South Pyongan told RFA.
“People are saying that they held the parade to give faith to the people because there’s no food to eat here in North Korea. They also did it to show that self-reliance is the only way to survive. That’s why I don’t think military parades are worth much,” said the South Pyongan source.
The parade is a sign that Kim Jong Un is not in touch with the people and their needs.
“He seems to have no idea that the residents don’t want to see three military parades in less than a year. Some are strongly criticizing the frivolity of the whole thing, saying that the state is ignoring the people’s livelihood during this crisis and only concerned about playing politics,” said the third source.
A fourth source, from North Pyongan, told RFA that the amount of training required to prepare for a military parade is a waste of the army’s resources.
“During the parade on October 10 of last year for the anniversary of the founding of the party, some of the participants said they had undergone intense training for six months,” said the fourth source, who declined to be named.
“Residents are aware that the solders can’t eat well, but they work hard to prepare for parade day and their lips are all chapped. How can there be a positive response to a military parade,” the fourth source said.
The source said it was unfair that soldiers sacrifice six months of their time and their health for these military parades, while Kim Jong Un prepares by dressing up as his grandfather, national founder and North Korea’s first leader Kim Il Sung.
Kim Il Sung remains a revered figure in North Korean culture, and legends of his deeds as an anti-Japanese guerilla during World War II and as a benevolent ruler afterward are taught to children from a young age.
When Kim Jong Un was being groomed to rule the country shortly before his father’s death in 2011, North Korea watchers noted that his attire and hairstyle closely resembled that of a young Kim Il Sung, a look he has maintained to the present. But many people inside North Korea say that despite the tribute, Kim Jong Un is not even a shadow of his grandfather.
“Kim Jong Un just imitates his grandfather, right up to the hairstyle… What’s the point of copying his appearance? He needs to fix the rot in this country but he’s not doing that.
Reported by Jeong Yon Park for RFA’s Korean Service. Translated by Leejin Jun. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
2. U.S. remains open to dialogue with N. Korea: State Dept.
We should not have to keep saying this. But given the nature of the Kim family regime and the international situation we have to keep beating this drum.
U.S. remains open to dialogue with N. Korea: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Sept. 17 (Yonhap) -- The United States remains committed to engaging with North Korea in a diplomatic approach to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said Friday.
North Korea earlier said the continued deadlock in dialogue between the two was because of what it claims to be U.S. hostility toward the North.
"The United States remains committed to diplomatic approach to the DPRK, and we also call on the DPRK to engage in dialogue," Jalina Porter, principal deputy spokesperson for the State Department, said when asked to comment on the North's renewed accusation.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.
In a commentary carried by its official Korean Central News Agency on Friday (Seoul time), North Korea also accused the U.S. of a "double standard," noting that Washington has called the North's recent launches a provocation while keeping silent on South Korea's missile launch that followed hours later.
North Korea test fired two short-range ballistic missiles earlier this week, which coincided with Seoul's test launch of an indigenous submarine-launched ballistic missile the same day.
Washington earlier condemned the North Korean missile launches, calling it a clear violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions.
Still, State Department spokesman Ned Price said dialogue was the only way forward.
"We are, in the midst of this, committed to a diplomatic approach to the DPRK, and we call on the DPRK to engage in a meaningful and substantive dialogue with us," he said earlier.
Pyongyang has stayed away from denuclearization talks with the U.S. since early 2019.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. Six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program may resume in 2021 — source
I have seen no other reporting on this. This Is from TASS, a Russian propaganda or media outlet.
Six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program may resume in 2021 — source
According to the diplomatic source, the interested parties are currently engaged in intensive diplomatic consultations on preparations for restoring the six-party platform
SEOUL, September 16. /TASS/. The six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program may resume before the end of the year, a diplomatic source in Seoul told TASS on Thursday.
"The interested parties, including South Korea, the United States, China, Russia, and Japan, are currently engaged in intensive diplomatic consultations on preparations for somehow restoring the six-party platform, that is, resuming multilateral denuclearization dialogue. Chances are high that all parties, including North Korea, will come to the negotiation table before the end of the year," the source pointed out.
In January 2003, North Korea announced its final withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which it had been party to since 1985. Six-party talks on resolving the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula began in August 2003, involving Russia, the US, China, Japan and the two Korean states. A total of six rounds of talks took place before Pyongyang stated in April 2009 that it would be pointless to continue the negotiations.
4. An arms race is heating up on the Korean Peninsula. Is the window for diplomacy closing?
I do not think Kim Jong-un has opened the window for diplomacy in recent months and even years.
An arms race is heating up on the Korean Peninsula. Is the window for diplomacy closing?
SEOUL —
Three years ago this week, South Korean President Moon Jae-in drew wide applause from thousands of North Koreans in Pyongyang when he declared “a new era of peace.”
He and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had agreed on “concrete measures to completely eliminate the fear of war and the risk of armed conflicts on the Korean Peninsula,” Moon told the crowd at the time.
Days before the anniversary of that momentous speech, the two Koreas find themselves far from that promise. Rival ballistic missiles tests this week by both nations signaled an escalating arms race rather than the careful drawdown the leaders once pledged. The dual launches raised fresh regional security fears at a time of increasing tensions between the U.S. and China, and served as a stark reminder of Washington’s failure to stem North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
North Korea announced it had test-fired cruise missiles over the weekend that traveled farther than any it had previously demonstrated, with the potential capacity to carry a nuclear warhead and evade detection. On Wednesday, it fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea to its east.
Japanese Foreign Ministry’s Takehiro Funakoshi, center, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim, left, and South Korea’s Noh Kyu-duk pose for photographers during their meeting on North Korea at Japan’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday in Tokyo.
(Eugene Hoshiko / Associated Press)
Hours later, South Korea announced it had successfully tested its first submarine-launched ballistic missile, showing off a technology held by only half a dozen other countries and considered an important “second strike” capability in the event of a nuclear attack.
On Thursday morning, North Korean state media boasted that its ballistic missiles had been launched from a train, another novel addition to the isolated nation’s growing arsenal. The “railway mobile missiles system” throws another wrench in the U.S. and South Korea’s efforts to monitor and detect the nation’s missiles.
The escalations are fomenting tensions not seen since 2017, when Kim and President Trump exchanged increasingly fiery rhetoric and North Korea tested nuclear weapons as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S. Analysts say the ratcheting up of military might between the Koreas raises the possibility of misunderstandings that could spiral to dangerous consequences — and further dampen the possibility of a diplomatic resolution to disarm North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
“We’re in a very critical moment where things could escalate quickly, which I don’t think either side intended to do,” said Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center, who directs the center’s 38 North Program focusing on North Korea analysis.
South Korea’s resorting to bolstering its own defense capabilities — and North Korea continuing to showcase new and more powerful weapons — is not surprising given the stalled relations between the Koreas since talks between North Korea and the U.S. broke down in 2019, Town said.
“Given everything that South Korea did over the past three years, no progress has been made,” she said. “How long are you going to stand by in the hopes things get better while North Korea is moving forward with their advanced capabilities?”
People wave flags in a celebration of North Korea’s 73rd anniversary in Pyongyang, the capital, on Sept. 9, 2021.
(Cha Song Ho / Associated Press)
North Korea has largely turned a cold shoulder to Moon’s entreaties since the failed summit between Kim and Trump in Vietnam. Pyongyang last year made a show of blowing up a liaison office built by the South just north of the border between the Koreas. It maintained one of the strictest border closures during the COVID-19 pandemic, rejecting outside offers of help.
Underlying South Korea’s anxiety is a growing fear that the U.S., which maintains 28,500 troops in the country, is less committed to defending its ally. North Korea has nuclear weapons, but the South does not — it relies on the U.S. under its “nuclear umbrella” guarantee that the U.S. will come to its aid.
Throughout his term, Trump had repeatedly accused longtime allies South Korea and Japan of “freeloading,” even suggesting in an interview as a candidate the countries should arm themselves with nuclear weapons rather than rely on the U.S.
“The fact that he put a price tag on the alliance, that raised a lot of concerns for South Koreans,” said James Kim, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a Seoul think tank. “If, for whatever reason, the political conditions in the U.S. change, they may again have to question the U.S. commitment to South Korea. Because of that concern, people need some kind of insurance.”
Kim found in a 2020 poll that 69.3% of South Koreans supported the country developing its own nuclear weapons, and that just 27.7% believed the country was capable of defending itself against North Korea on its own. The South Korean news media this week heralded the success of the South’s homegrown missile technology, calling it a “game changer,” while expressing alarm at North Korea’s new weaponry and the prospect it could undermine diplomacy.
South Korea’s increased defense spending in recent years is likely aimed at assuaging that fear ahead of next year’s presidential elections.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, left, poses with South Korean President Moon Jae-in inside the Peace House at the border village of Panmunjom in the demilitarized zone in April 2018.
(Pool Photo)
The Biden administration, for its part, condemned the North’s missile launches but said it remained ready to hold talks with North Korea. The heightened tensions follow an International Atomic Energy Agency report last month that found North Korea has resumed operations at a key reactor in Yongbyon, forcing Biden to confront what has proved to be one of the most intractable foreign policy challenges for his predecessors.
“We are committed to the principle that dialogue will allow us to pursue our ultimate objective, and that’s quite simply the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters.
The arms race between the Koreas comes amid mounting worries elsewhere in the region. The U.S. on Wednesday announced it would equip Australia with nuclear submarine technology as part of its efforts to check China’s expanding navy and growing influence in the South China Sea.
Kim of the Asan Institute said South Korea was looking beyond the peninsula in bulking up its defense. The public displays such as this week’s underwater missile launch are far more about the message they send than their potential deployment, he said.
“Some of these announcements are to show the potential adversaries what you’re capable of, but you would rather not use those capabilities,” he said. “The ones you don’t show are the more important ones.”
5. North Korea Is on a Mission to Kill U.S. Missile Defenses
Excerpts:
The Congressional Research Service report looks at several actions by the North Koreans, including past nuclear testing, use of delivery vehicles, and missile development.
It also looks at events that have taken place since the last version of the report, especially the missile launches in March, which followed a visit to the region by the U.S. new secretaries of state and defense. The North Korean government has been known to test new administrations in both America and South Korea.
“These launches violate United Nations Security Council resolutions. North Korean SRBMs and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM), precision-guided multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), and artillery pose the most acute near-term threats to other nations,” the CRS report says. “Advances in these systems demonstrate the North Korean shift toward solid propellants and satellite guidance systems; advances that could carry over to larger, more potent systems like the Hwasong series ICBMs. These developments provide the projectiles greater mobility and survivability prior to launch and greater potency and precision on target.”
Mary Beth D. Nikitin, Specialist in Nonproliferation, is the author of the report.
North Korea Is on a Mission to Kill U.S. Missile Defenses
Tensions are climbing between the U.S. and North Korea.
Here's what you need to remember: Pyongyang has steadily and surely over the years improved its nuclear missiles and what they are capable of.
As tension continues to ramp up between the United States and North Korea, that country is “working to develop capabilities that can degrade or even defeat U.S. missile defense systems deployed in its region.” That’s according to a new report issued by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), as cited in an article by Yonhap News Agency.
The report, an updated version of one that has been released previously, is titled “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons and Missile Programs,” and looks at North Korea’s nuclear and missile ambitions.
“North Korea continues to advance its nuclear weapons and missile programs despite UN Security Council sanctions and high-level diplomatic efforts. North Korea is observing a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile testing,” the report states.
“Recent ballistic missile tests and an October 2020 military parade suggest that North Korea is continuing to build a nuclear warfighting capability designed to evade regional ballistic missile defenses. Such an approach likely reinforces a deterrence and coercive diplomacy strategy— lending more credibility as it demonstrates capability—but it also raises questions about crisis stability and escalation control. Congress may choose to examine U.S. policy in light of these advances.”
The U.S. Intelligence Committee’s recent Annual Threat Assessment had found that the North Korean regime may soon be ready to resume long-range missile or nuclear testing this year. The North Korean regime “may take a number of aggressive and potentially destabilizing actions to reshape the regional security environment and drive wedges between the United States and its allies.”
The Congressional Research Service report looks at several actions by the North Koreans, including past nuclear testing, use of delivery vehicles, and missile development.
It also looks at events that have taken place since the last version of the report, especially the missile launches in March, which followed a visit to the region by the U.S. new secretaries of state and defense. The North Korean government has been known to test new administrations in both America and South Korea.
“These launches violate United Nations Security Council resolutions. North Korean SRBMs and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM), precision-guided multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), and artillery pose the most acute near-term threats to other nations,” the CRS report says. “Advances in these systems demonstrate the North Korean shift toward solid propellants and satellite guidance systems; advances that could carry over to larger, more potent systems like the Hwasong series ICBMs. These developments provide the projectiles greater mobility and survivability prior to launch and greater potency and precision on target.”
Mary Beth D. Nikitin, Specialist in Nonproliferation, is the author of the report.
Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
6. Peace process paradox: Why Moon is bolstering S. Korea’s armaments
Win back OPCON? Sigh...
Note criticism of exercises. Sigh...
The author's thesis is that South Korean military modernization and ensuring combined military readiness to defend the ROK is causing a deterioration of north-South relations. He would have the alliance forgo readiness (while the north continues to modernize its military capabilities) to chase the fantasy of north-South engagement and relations. How does the regime in the north respond to a weak ROK/US alliance? It is certainly not healthy for ROK and US interests and the security of the Korean people in the South.
Peace process paradox: Why Moon is bolstering S. Korea’s armaments
Posted on : Sep.17,2021 17:40 KST
In order to win back wartime operational control (OPCON) from the US, South Korea has continued to build up its armaments and increase military spending, resulting in deteriorating inter-Korean relations and a worsening security dilemma
A South Korean-developed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is launched from a 3,000-ton Dosan Ahn Chang-ho-class submarine on Wednesday. President Moon Jae-in, along with other key government and military figures, were present during the test at the Agency for Defense Development’s Anheung Test Center. (provided by the Ministry of National Defense)
The curious timing of South and North Korea test-launching ballistic missiles and a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) within hours of each other on Wednesday is raising fears that the two sides might be entering an unforeseen arms race.Inter-Korean relations are potentially being threatened by a dilemma as the same Moon Jae-in administration that vigorously pursued a “Korean Peninsula peace process” over the past four years makes efforts to ensure autonomous defense as well.After observing the test launch of an SLBM at the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) on Wednesday, Moon said it had shown “adequate deterrence to respond to North Korean provocations at any time.”“I hope we continue doing our best to ensure strong defense capabilities, including ongoing reinforcements of our missile firepower,” he also said.As Moon indicated, the government announced Thursday that it has succeeded in its development of a high-powered ballistic missile called the Hyunmoo-4, which included a “historic increase in warhead weight,” and testing of aircraft separation for a long-range air-to-surface missile to be carried on next-generation KF-21 fighter aircraft.That’s not all.The intermediate-term national defense plan for 2022–2026 announced by the Ministry of National Defense on Sept. 2 also included the complete introduction of F-35 stealth fighters, continued development of the 6,000-ton next-generation KDDX-class destroyer, continued acquisition of medium-sized submarines in the 3,000-ton class, force integration of surface-to-surface and naval ship-to-surface missiles with greater destructive power, and the acquisition of a 30,000-ton light aircraft carrierA closer look at them shows plans for huge increases in military spending. If the plan goes ahead as is, South Korea’s national defense budget is poised to exceed 60 trillion won (US$51 billion) by 2024, and 70 trillion won (US$59.5 billion) two years later in 2026.Precedent shows that the rate of increase in defense spending under progressive administrations that emphasize inter-Korean dialogue tends to dwarf that of conservative administrations.One key reason for this seeming irony is the issue of the return of wartime operational control (OPCON) from the US — a cherished hope of progressive administrations emphasizing autonomous defense.The Roh Moo-hyun administration originally reached an agreement with the US to return OPCON by April 2012. It went on to pursue massive increases in military spending to ensure an independent deterrent against North Korea.Roh was succeeded by the Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye administrations. The Lee administration postponed the OPCON transfer schedule to December 2015, citing security fears in the wake of the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan corvette in 2010, among other factors. Later, the conservative leaders would backpedal further, agreeing to a transfer based on the meeting of certain conditions rather than according to a set schedule.The baton was then passed to the Moon administration. To meet the “rigorous conditions” agreed upon by South Korea and the US, that administration has continued to carry out joint military exercises with the US — a matter that has the North particularly on edge — while pursuing large increases in military spending.The results have been disastrous for inter-Korean relations.After the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi collapsed in February 2019, Pyongyang began issuing a flurry of basic demands from Seoul and Washington, including the withdrawal of what it calls hostile policies.On July 26 of that year, leader Kim Jong-un shared “advice,” calling on South Korea to “come back to the proper stand as in April [with the inter-Korean summit at Panmunjom] and September [with another inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang] last year.”The Moon administration’s response to this was to go ahead with joint military exercises the following August and announce plans for a large-scale increase in military spending, with “300 trillion won [US$255 billion] to be invested in national defense over the five years beginning in 2020.”North Korea countered with its own push back against the South at the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in early January 2021, where it announced plans to develop “super-sized nuclear warheads,” tactical nuclear weapons, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.By Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporterPlease direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]
7. EXPLAINER: Kim's launches show push to boost nuke arsenal
EXPLAINER: Kim's launches show push to boost nuke arsenal
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG · September 17, 2021
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea’s recent sword-rattling after months of relative quiet makes clear that leader Kim Jong Un is working on expanding his weapons arsenal.
Nuclear-capable missiles hidden in trains that can be launched anywhere along a railway. A new cruise missile resembling the U.S. Tomahawk that can be potentially topped with atomic warheads. The apparent resumption of making fuel for potential nuclear bombs.
Likely they are an attempt to wrest concessions from Washington if, and when, long-stalled diplomatic talks on Kim’s nuclear program resume. Part of the message is aimed domestically, however, to reinforce internal unity as North Koreans cope with deeper hardship in a never-healthy economy that’s been battered by the coronavirus pandemic.
Here, then, is a look at Kim’s recent weapons tests, the first of their kind in six months, and what they may mean for efforts to confront the North’s nuclear ambitions.
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THE NEW WEAPONS
North Korea called its first train-launched ballistic missile tests successful, saying the two weapons launched Wednesday struck a target in the sea 800 kilometers (500 miles) away.
That puts all of South Korea and the U.S. military bases it hosts in range. Experts say the missiles are nuclear-capable.
Firing from trains also adds another platform for missile launches — in addition to mobile trucks, ground pads and a submarine method still being tested. A train-based platform utilizes North Korea’s national rail network and allows for secret movement and launch, although experts note rail networks are vulnerable targets in a crisis.
For South Korea, “which has to defend itself from North Korean missiles, it’s yet another headache,” said Lee Choon Geun, a missile expert at South Korea’s Science and Technology Policy Institute.
Last weekend, North Korea also tested what it called a new cruise missile, which flew about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles), making it the North’s longest-range cruise missile, capable of reaching all of Japan, which is also home to 50,000 U.S. troops.
It’s being developed as nuclear capable and flies at a low altitude, making it harder to detect. Its development demonstrates North Korea’s push to break enemy defense lines and diversify a weapons inventory that’s heavy on ballistic missiles.
Satellite photos also show signs North Korea has restarted operations at its main factory for producing weapons-grade plutonium, a key ingredient used to make nuclear weapons.
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WHAT KIM WANTS
Kim’s resumed testing activities are largely meant “for developing military capabilities, but can also be attempts at shoring up domestic unity,” said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “Pyongyang could launch a provocation even when in desperate economic need because it wants to hide its weaknesses and extract external concessions.”
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Kim may also be going back to a tried-and-true technique of pressuring the world with missile launches and outrageous threats before offering negotiations at the last minute meant to extract aid.
“It bears further watching on how things go, but it’s possible that we are near another phase in (North Korean) brinkmanship,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Ewha Womans University.
North Korea’s recent tests could be low-key reactions to the continuation of joint U.S.-South Korean military drills and to South Korean efforts to build up its arms programs.
Kim’s ultimate goal is likely winning relief from crippling international economic sanctions even as he gains U.S. recognition as a nuclear state, allowing him to hold onto nuclear weapons that he may see as his only guarantee for survival.
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WHAT’S NEXT?
North Korea may keep ramping up its pressure campaign, at least until China starts pushing for calm ahead of the Beijing Olympics early next year. But it still could hold back on tests of more provocative weapons as it looks for less coercive diplomacy.
The North will have until around November to advance its weapons development with testing, Park, the analyst, said. After that, it risks hurting relations with China.
North Korea may also conduct another weapons test around a major state anniversary, like the ruling Workers’ Party foundation day on Oct. 10.
“For upgrading weapons capabilities, next in the testing queue may not be a nuclear device or ICBM but a submarine-based system,” Easley said.
Despite its recent weapons tests, North Korea has maintained a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests for more than three years. That suggests that it still wants to keep chances for future diplomacy with Washington alive.
It’s possible that Pyongyang is carefully measuring its actions while looking for a window back into diplomacy.
“It wouldn’t be surprising if the North makes some effort soon to reach out to Washington or to Seoul, if just only to measure their intent,” said Hong Min, an analyst at Seoul’s Korea Institute for National Unification.
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG · September 17, 2021
8. It’s the Launcher, Not the Missile: Initial Evaluation of North Korea’s Rail-Mobile Missile Launches
As I have written I am sure there are going to be changes to targeting recommendations and rail infrastructure will be moved up the priority list when we think this capability is actually fielded.
It’s the Launcher, Not the Missile: Initial Evaluation of North Korea’s Rail-Mobile Missile Launches | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
38north.org · by Vann H. Van Diepen · September 17, 2021
(Source: KCTV via Martyn Williams)
North Korea’s September 15 launches of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from a railcar are significant for its first-time use of a rail launcher, not because of the missiles that were tested. The SRBMs launched are along the lines of existing types, and North Korea has long deployed hundreds of SRBMs. The use of a rail-mobile launcher is not significant for Pyongyang’s SRBMs, which are already road-mobile and highly survivable, but for the potential future use with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). ICBMs are harder to make road-mobile than smaller missiles, and thus would benefit much more from rail mobility. While rail-mobility is less survivable than road-mobility, rail-mobile systems are significantly more survivable than fixed-base ones.
Information to Date
- This had been a “drill of the Railway Mobile Missile Regiment,” which had been organized by the Eighth Congress (January 2021) of the Korean Workers’ Party “to increase the capability for dealing intensive blow [sic] to the menacing forces in many places at the same time during necessary military operation and powerfully improve the ability to more actively cope with all sorts of threats as part of establishment of new defence strategy.”
- The purpose of the drill was “confirming the practicability of the railway mobile missile system deployed for the first time for action, evaluating without notice the combat preparedness of the new regiment and its ability to perform firepower mission and mastering the actual war procedures.”
The article also discussed “accumulating combat experiences of the missile regiment at the earliest possible time and expanding the regiment into [sic] brigade,” and concluded by stating: “it is of great significance in strengthening the war deterrent of the country that the railway mobile missile system has been introduced into reality.”
Later that day, it released a video of the launch that showed:
- Two railcars and a locomotive backing out of a rail tunnel.
- The hot launch of two missiles in turn from the end railcar, using two side-by-side erector/launcher mechanisms akin to the side-by-side arrangement used in the KN-23’s road-mobile launch vehicle. (The second railcar appeared to be used for cargo/support.)
- The launch railcar resembled a normal boxcar but had sliding-door-covered openings at all four corners used to vent the missile launch exhaust. The roof was divided longitudinally into two sections, each of which slid down over its side of the railcar to permit the missile on its side to be erected and launched. Two sets of leveling jacks at each end of the railcar had been put down to stabilize the railcar for launch.
Analysis and Implications
The unveiling of a rail-mobile SRBM is surprising, given that North Korea has deployed all of its SRBMs on road-mobile launchers since their advent in the mid-1980s, and all of its new SRBMs (including the KN-23 and the “new type” variant) have been displayed on such launchers. Road-mobile deployment of such small missiles is straightforward and well-understood by Pyongyang.
A new basing mode would certainly diversify the force, although rail-mobility isn’t really needed for SRBMs to “deal a heavy blow.” Rail-mobile missiles are much more survivable than fixed-based ones, although relatively small SRBMs and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) are even more survivable when road-mobile, because they can move and deploy off-road and camouflaged. Rail-mobile missiles, however, cannot leave the fixed, well-known rail network.
Adding rail-mobile launchers would bolster the size of the SRBM force. The September 16 statement suggests the “Railway Mobile Missile Regiment” is operational or on the verge of being so. Based on Soviet practice, a mobile missile regiment would have nine (in this case, dual) launchers; a good guess would be deployment in three “battalion” trains with three launchers each. A missile brigade might have two to three such regiments, if analogous to North Korean artillery brigades. North Korea already possesses a large number of trucks able to transport SRBMs, however, and even many able to haul MRBMs. It is unclear whether modifying railcars to launch SRBMs would be cheaper than modifying trucks, given that missile erector-launchers need to be added in both cases and that addition comprises the bulk of the work needed on a road-mobile launcher (no sliding roof or exhaust vents required as for a rail launcher).
The North’s current liquid-propelled ICBMs would be especially suitable for rail-mobile deployment. It would be easier to move such ICBMs by rail in an already fueled state, thus avoiding long set-up and fueling times prior to launch. Rail transport would subject the fueled missiles to a smoother ride and allow better environmental control than road mobility. Moreover, all of the needed support capabilities (including propellants and fueling infrastructure even if the missiles were transported unfueled) could simply be added in additional cars to the missile train. This is much easier to move and less conspicuous and vulnerable than the many trucks that would have to be added to an equivalent road-mobile deployment.
The new Hwasong-15 (KN-22) liquid ICBM—the world’s largest mobile ICBM, weighing some 100,000 to 150,000 kg fueled—would be a prime beneficiary of rail mobility. (It has yet to be flight tested, and its deployment prospects are unknown.). If road-mobile, it probably would be constrained to smooth, straight roads and being transported unfueled, thus adding to its vulnerability and response time. Rail deployment would significantly improve its mobility and survivability.
Solid-propellant missiles are the next logical step in North Korean ICBM development. Such missiles already incorporate all of the propellants, and thus are much heavier than unfueled liquid propellant systems. A first-generation small solid-propellant ICBM probably would weigh some 30,000-40,000 kg; it could be made road-mobile, but also would be well suited for rail deployment. The USSR/Russia deployed the heavier (104,500 kg), medium-sized SS-24 solid-propellant ICBM on railcars from 1989 to 2005, and India has deployed the lighter solid-propellant Agni-III intermediate-range ballistic missile (48,300 kg) on rail-mobile launchers since 2011.
As noted previously, North Korean rail-mobile missiles would be much more survivable than fixed-based systems. They could be dispersed along much of the North’s 7,435 km of railways, although 97 percent of that is single-tracked and much of it is in “truly bad shape,” which would limit how much of the network would be usable for missile trains (especially with hefty ICBMs). Missile trains could be configured to look like civilian freight trains, hidden in rail tunnels (which also would offer some protection against attack), dispersed to remote sidings and camouflaged. Decoy missile trains also could be deployed to confuse attackers.
At the same time, the North Korean rail network is already a prime target for attack in wartime, given its role in transporting and supplying North Korean conventional forces. A rail-mobile missile force could expect to be regularly harassed and attacked by allied forces enjoying air superiority, and to have its movement impeded by strikes on chokepoints, bridges, tunnels and railyards—even without any special effort made to attack the missile force per se. The advent of rail-mobile missile deployment no doubt also would spark specific allied efforts to detect, track and strike missile units in addition to the general air campaign against the rail network. Thus, as already noted, rail-mobile missiles would not be as survivable as road-mobile systems, which can utilize the much larger road network (724 km of paved and 24,830 km of unpaved roads) and, in most cases, can go off-road, hiding under camouflage away from any conspicuous place like a rail line.
The Bottom Line
The significance of the September 15 SRBM tests is not the missiles, which are along the lines of existing types, but the use of a rail-mobile launcher, which has little added value for the North’s already road-mobile SRBM force but important implications for its ICBMs. ICBMs, which are harder to make road-mobile than smaller missiles, would benefit from rail mobility much more than smaller systems. While rail-mobility is inferior to road-mobility in terms of promoting survivability, rail-mobile systems are significantly more survivable than fixed-base ones.
- [1]
See: Hyonhee Shin and Josh Smith, “North and South Korea conduct missile tests as arms race heats up,” Reuters, September 15, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nkorea-fired-unidentified-projectile-yonhap-citing-skorea-military-2021-09-15; and Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Fires 2 Ballistic Missiles as Rivalry With the South Mounts,” The New York Times, September 15, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/15/world/asia/north-korea-ballistic-missiles.html.
- [2]
“Secretary Pak Jong Chon guides launching drill of Railway Mobile Missile Regiment for inspection,” Voice of Korea, September 16, 2021.
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“Secretary Pak Jong Chon guides launching drill of Railway Mobile Missile Regiment for inspection,” Rodong Sinmun, September 16, 2021.
- [4]
- [5]
“Secretary Pak Jong Chon guides launching drill of Railway Mobile Missile Regiment for inspection,” Rodong Sinmun.
- [6]
“Major Statistics Indicators of North Korea 2019,” Statistics Korea, 2019.
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[1] The missiles landed in the sea between North Korea and Japan. Japan’s Ministry of Defense originally issued a statement “saying that it ‘assumed’ the missile did not reach the country’s territorial waters or its exclusive economic zone (EEZ),” but later said the missiles landed inside the EEZ.
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[2] It explained:
- [3]
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[4] The 800-km range demonstrated in the latest launches is substantially greater than the 600-km range claimed by the North Koreans in March, much less the 450 km demonstrated by the original KN-23. The “new type” from March probably could reach 800 km if its payload were reduced, even if the North’s claim of a very large 2,500 kg payload almost certainly was overstated. The September 16 statement’s characterization of the latest launches as being for operational training purposes suggests North Korea considers the missiles already to have been proven, which would be inconsistent with an entirely new KN-23 version or variant.
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[5] Pyongyang may also have seen propaganda value in revealing a hitherto unknown basing mode, and one cannot rule out the possibility of a new pet project of the reputedly train-loving Kim Jong Un.
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four types of liquid-propellant mobile ICBMs on large road-mobile launchers. But it has always been unclear how many road-mobile ICBM launchers North Korea possesses or is capable of producing or procuring. It would be able to modify many dozens of its 23,900 existing freight railcars to launch ICBMs, obviating any limits on road-mobile launcher production.[6]
38north.org · by Vann H. Van Diepen · September 17, 2021
9. China's August exports to North Korea up for third month
China's August exports to North Korea up for third month
Reuters · by Reuters Staff · September 18, 2021
By Reuters Staff
1 Min Read
FILE PHOTO: Two North Korean men are seen in a boat as the Chinese national flag flies over the Yalu River running between the North Korean town of Sinuiju and Dandong in China's Liaoning Province, May 25, 2018. REUTERS/Joseph Campbell/File Photo
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s exports to North Korea rose for the third straight month in August, but were still a fraction of their pre-COVID levels, Chinese customs data showed on Saturday.
Chinese shipments to North Korea climbed to $22.5 million in August from $16.8 million in July. That compares with $219 million of exports in August 2019.
China imported $6.2 million of North Korean goods in August, up from $4.1 million in July.
Reporting by Ryan Woo; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore
Reuters · by Reuters Staff · September 18, 2021
10. BTS heads to New York for U.N. event as special presidential envoy
A soft power weapon.
BTS heads to New York for U.N. event as special presidential envoy | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 18 (Yonhap) -- K-pop sensation BTS flew to New York on Saturday to attend a United Nations event as a special presidential envoy.
The chart-topping group is scheduled to attend the opening ceremony for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Moment of the Decade of Action event in New York on Monday (U.S. local time), along with President Moon Jae-in.
The president appointed the seven-member group as a "special presidential envoy for future generations and culture" Tuesday. BTS will give a speech in New York and play a video clip of one of its performances.
The SDG Moment is designed to reinforce the international community's efforts to achieve sustainable development goals. These goals are considered a blueprint for fighting poverty, hunger and the climate crisis, among other global challenges.
As special envoys, BTS members are traveling with diplomatic passports.
BTS boasts five No. 1 singles on Billboard, four of which debuted in the top spot.
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V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
