Hurricanes are expected to become increasingly intense and more frequent due to climate change-induced warming of the tropical ocean. It is all part of the now familiar pattern of extreme events becoming ever more extreme. It is against this backdrop that Hurricane Larry, a Category 3 storm, travelled northwest across the Atlantic Ocean before making landfall in Newfoundland in eastern Canada on September 11.

By September 12, Larry had reached Greenland, bringing high winds and heavy snowfall to the island’s southeast and interior. Wind gusts topped 90 miles per hour and blizzard conditions were reported at Summit Station. A hurricane reaching Greenland is highly unusual, but just as unusual was the early timing and amount of snow that was delivered. Typically, Greenland’s summer melt season occurs from May to early September. The recent snowfall from Larry could potentially balance out the ice melt losses during the entire summer.

Snowfall amounts on that day have been estimated by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. The map shows snowfall amounts as millimeters of water, as opposed to snow depth, for the 24-hour period. Fifty millimeters of water is equivalent to about 200 millimeters (8 inches) of snow in Greenland.

If climate change is impacting snow in Greenland, what is it likely to do at Tahoe this winter? The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s estimates, as of September 16, are not likely to excite many snowboarders. The outlook for October through December 2021 indicates a 40-50% chance of above-average temperatures and an equal chance of average precipitation. But don’t take too much solace in that last number. Beyond December, the estimate is for drier than average conditions.

Questions? Email tercinfo@ucdavis.edu

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