Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Wisdom equals knowledge plus courage. You have to not only know what to do and when to do it, but you have to also be brave enough to follow through."

– Jarod Kintz

"Service to others is the rent you pay for your room here on earth."

– Muhammad Ali

"Do one thing every day that scares you."

– Eleanor Roosevelt

1. Israel Strikes Back at Iran, Further Expanding the War in the Middle East

2. ‘What the f**k to do with them?’ Russian soldiers heard condemning North Korean recruits in intercepted audio

3. Russian troops 'have no idea what to do with North Korean soldiers'

4. Chinese Hackers Targeted Phones of Trump, Vance, and Harris Campaign

5. Ukraine Is Striking Deeper Inside Russia—and Reshaping the War

6. Two Weeks of Ukrainian Drone Strikes Achieve More Than Two Years of Sanctions: russian Artillery Fire Rate Dropped By 1.5x

7. China’s Massive Fishing Fleet Overwhelms Locals in ‘David and Goliath’ Battle

8. Former Soviet State Reaches ‘Moment of Truth’: Russia or the West

9. How Army and Navy Football Have Marched to Undefeated Records

10. Live Updates: Israel’s Retaliatory Attack on Iran Appears Carefully Calibrated

11. China Tightens Its Hold on Minerals Needed to Make Computer Chips

12. The Man Who Shaped China’s Strongman Rule Has a New Job: Winning Taiwan

13. Elon Musk, enemy of ‘open borders,’ launched his career working illegally

14. Behind the scenes of Israeli attack: Over 100 aircraft and a 2,000 km journey to Iran

15. The History of Irregular Warfare Across the World

1. Israel Strikes Back at Iran, Further Expanding the War in the Middle East

Seems as if Israel showed some real restraint here yet still struck some key targets.

Excerpts:

“If Iran chooses to respond once again, we will be ready, and there will be consequences for Iran once again,” a senior U.S. administration official said. “However, we do not want to see that happen. This should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran.”

Iran also got advance notice hours before the attack, a warning from Israel that was passed along by several Arab and European countries, according to people familiar with the matter. They said the warning outlined what Israel intended to target and indicated that if Iran planned to retaliate, subsequent attacks would be more powerful. Israel didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York couldn’t immediately be reached.

A woman in central Tehran told The Wall Street Journal that she woke to the sound of continuous explosions Saturday. “My heart is jumping out of my chest,” she said. Iranian air-defense authorities said their systems were firing in three locations around the capital. The country earlier closed its airspace for several hours, according to a notice to pilots.

Iran struck Israel on Oct. 1 to avenge the killings of the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, launching about 180 ballistic missiles. In recent conversations with Arab governments, Iran’s foreign minister said his country doesn’t want a wider war and suggested Tehran could absorb an Israeli retaliatory strike without escalating if it targeted military sites rather than sensitive oil or nuclear facilities, Arab officials said.

Israel Strikes Back at Iran, Further Expanding the War in the Middle East

Military targets hit in a number of areas, including missile manufacturing facilities and air-defense sites

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-back-at-iran-further-expanding-the-war-in-the-middle-east-759cc6ec?mod=latest_headlines

By Michael R. Gordon

, Lara Seligman

and Carrie Keller-Lynn

Updated Oct. 26, 2024 5:55 am ET

‘What the f**k to do with them?’ Russian soldiers heard condemning North Korean recruits in intercepted audio | CNN

CNN · by Victoria Butenko, Maria Kostenko, Lauren Kent · October 25, 2024

Russian soldiers heard complaining about North Korean soldiers in intercepted audio

01:14 - Source: CNN

Kyiv CNN —

Russian soldiers have been heard raising concerns about how North Korean soldiers will be commanded and provided with ammunition and military kit, leaked intercepts obtained by the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine and released on Friday show.

The Russian soldiers talk disdainfully about the incoming North Korean soldiers, codenamed the “K Battalion,” at one point referring to them as “the f**king Chinese.”

In the same extract, a serviceman describes another who has been tasked to “meet people.”

“And he’s like standing there with his eyes out, like… f**k,” the soldier says. “He came here and says what the f**k to do with them.”

The audio was intercepted from encrypted Russian transmission channels on the night of October 23, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.

Ukraine’s analysis of the intercepts revealed that North Korean troop movements were planned for the morning of October 24, in the area of Postoyalye Dvory field camp in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise incursion earlier this year.

The intercepts also reveal plans to have one interpreter and three senior officers for every 30 North Korean men, which the Russian soldiers are heard in the audio condemning.

“The only thing I don’t understand is that there [should be] three senior officers for 30 people. Where do we get them? We’ll have to pull them out,” one Russian serviceman says.

“I’m f***ing telling you, there are 77 battalion commanders coming in tomorrow, there are commanders, deputy commanders and so on,” a serviceman says in another extract.

The intercepted audio follows a Thursday announcement from Ukraine’s military intelligence service that a group of North Korean soldiers have been spotted in Russia’s Kursk region, an area that borders Ukraine and has seen ongoing military operations.

In a post on its official Telegram account, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said some North Korean troops, who had received training in Russia’s far east, have made their way to the western Russian region, where Ukraine has maintained a foothold since launching an incursion in August.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that he received a report on the deployment of North Korean military personnel from Ukraine’s commander-in-chief.

“According to intelligence, on October 27-28, Russia will deploy its first North Korean troops in combat zones. This is a clear step in Russia’s escalation that matters, unlike all the disinformation circulating in Kazan these days,” Zelensky said, criticizing the BRICS summit staged by Russian President Vladimir Putin this week in the southwestern Russian city of Kazan.

The Kremlin had initially dismissed allegations of North Korean troop deployments, but on Thursday at the BRICS summit, Putin did not deny that Pyongyang had sent soldiers to the country.

North Korea said on Friday that any troop deployment to Russia to aid the war in Ukraine would conform with international law, state media reported, without explicitly confirming such presence. North Korea had previously dismissed such reports.

“The actual involvement of North Korea in combat should be met not with a blind eye and confused comments, but with tangible pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang to comply with the UN Charter and to punish escalation,” Zelensky added.

CNN’s Daria Tarasova-Markina, Gawon Bae and Niamh Kennedy contributed to this report.

CNN · by Victoria Butenko, Maria Kostenko, Lauren Kent · October 25, 2024

3. Russian troops 'have no idea what to do with North Korean soldiers'

Typical bellyaching by soldiers? Or an indicator of something more?

Russian troops 'have no idea what to do with North Korean soldiers'

A pair of soldiers can be heard bellyaching about the so-called 'K-battalion'

By David Averre and Afp

Published: 11:36 EDT, 25 October 2024 | Updated: 18:20 EDT, 25 October 2024

Daily Mail · by David Averre · October 25, 2024

Ukraine's intelligence services have released audio of what they claim to be Russian troops complaining about the arrival of North Korean fighters and squabbling about how they will be equipped.

In one recording, a pair of soldiers can be heard bellyaching about the so-called 'K battalion', referring to them as 'f***ing Chinese' and declaring one of his fellow servicemen had said 'who knows what the f*** we're supposed to do with them'.

Another clip obtained by Ukraine's Defence Intelligence (GUR) appeared to expose the lack of communication and planning regarding the North Korean troops' integration with their Russian counterparts.

'He was just talking about the K battalion, I say: ''And who is getting the weapons and ammunition for them? We got rations, and as far as I heard those are for the brigade'',' one Russian soldier moaned.

'He was like ''What f***ing brigade? You're getting everything.'' I just said that I understood everything and went out for a smoke.'

It comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sounded the alarm that troops from Pyongyang could be deployed to the frontlines alongside Russian forces to fight against Kyiv's defenders as early as Sunday.

Russia's lower parliament meanwhile unanimously ratified a defence treaty with North Korea that was struck between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un during the Russian president's state visit to the North Korean capital in June.

A leaked video allegedly shows North Korean troops in Russia being kitted out with military equipment

A Russian soldier fires from D-30 howitzer towards Ukrainian positions in an undisclosed location in Ukraine

The Ukrainian President has warned that North Korea's involvement could hasten the eruption of World War III

Putin and Kim clink glasses amid the former's visit to Pyongyang

South Korea urged Russia to stop its 'illegal cooperation' with Pyongyang and voiced 'grave concern' this morning after Moscow moved to ratify its defence pact, which stipulates each party must provide assistance if the other faces aggression.

The treaty will now be sent to the upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, for approval.

For years, he was the tubby dictator mocked as 'The Little Rocket Man' due to his obsession with nuclear missiles: But now Kim Jong Un has moved us closer than ever to WW3 by sending soldiers to Ukraine

Shortly after Seoul's warning, Zelensky declared that Russia was planning to send North Korean troops into battle against his country as early as Sunday, and urged world leaders to pile 'tangible pressure' on Pyongyang.

South Korea and the United States said that thousands of North Korean troops were training in Russia.

Ukraine said this week that North Korean soldiers had arrived in the 'combat zone' in Russia's Kursk border region.

While stopping short of confirming it had put boots on the ground, North Korea said any troop deployment to Russia would be in line with international law.

'(Seoul) expresses grave concern over Russia's ratification of the Russia-North Korea treaty amidst the ongoing deployment of North Korean troops to Russia,' the South Korean foreign ministry said in a statement.

It added that the South Korean government 'strongly urges the immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops and the cessation of illegal cooperation'.

Seoul said it would work with allies to 'take appropriate measures' over the move, and the country - a major arms exporter - has suggested it could revise longstanding policy barring it from sending weapons directly to Kyiv.

Zelensky, following a meeting with defence officials on Friday, said North Korean troops could be sent in to fight Ukrainian troops this weekend.

'According to intelligence reports, on 27-28 October, Russia will use the first North Korean military in combat zones,' he said on social media.

'The actual involvement of North Korea in hostilities should be met not with a blind eye and confused comments but with tangible pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang to comply with the UN Charter and to punish escalation,' he added.

A senior official within the Ukrainian president's office said the North Korean troops could be deployed in battle either to the Russian region of Kursk or in eastern Ukraine.

Putin said in an interview aired on Friday on state television that it was up to Moscow how it uses the treaty's clause on mutual military assistance.

'What action we take with this clause - that's still under question. We are in touch with our North Korean friends,' Putin said.

'I mean to say that it's our sovereign decision, whether we use something or not. Where, how, whether we need this, or (if) we, for example, only carry out some exercises, training, passing on some experience - that's our business,' he added.

Seoul and Washington have long claimed that the nuclear-armed North is sending major shipments of arms to Russia.

One of North Korea's United Nations representatives said at the UN General Assembly's First Committee on Disarmament and International Security that the country was sending neither weapons nor soldiers to help Moscow.

The allegations by South Korea and others are 'nothing more than groundless rumours aimed at tarnishing the image of DPRK', Rim Mu Song said, referring to the North by its official name.

'It is yet another smear campaign devised by Ukraine' to get 'more weaponry and financial support from the US and Western countries'.

North Korean soldiers are seen smashing through concrete blocks in demonstration to Kim and high ranking officials

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un aims a weapon as he visits a training base

A new 600mm multiple rocket launcher is test-fired at an undisclosed location in North Korea

Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un meet in Pyongyang, June 19, 2024

South Korea's representative flagged videos circulating online of North Korean soldiers in Russian uniforms speaking Korean, but Rim said they 'again totally reject the allegation' of troop deployment.

On Friday a diplomatic official argued, however, that Pyongyang would be well within its rights to deploy soldiers on Russian soil.

'If there is such a thing that the world media is talking about, I think it will be an act conforming with the regulations of international law,' said Kim Jong Gyu, vice foreign minister in charge of Russian Affairs.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has called the deployment a 'provocation that threatens global security beyond the Korean Peninsula and Europe'.

Yoon also said South Korea will 'review' its stance on providing weapons to Ukraine in its war with Russia, which the country has long resisted.

Seoul has already sold billions of dollars of tanks, howitzers, attack aircraft and rocket launchers to Poland, a key ally of Kyiv.

In June, South Korea agreed to transfer the knowledge needed to build K2 tanks to Poland, which experts have said could be a key step towards production inside Ukraine.

South Korea's Hanwha Aerospace has signed a $1.64-billion deal with Poland to supply rocket artillery units.

North Korea has adopted a new national anthem, state media reported on Friday, another move that experts suspect will further leader Kim Jong Un's drive to define his country as entirely separate from, and in opposition to, the South.

North Korea amended its constitution to define the South as a 'hostile' state and last week blew up roads and railways that once connected the two countries.

Daily Mail · by David Averre · October 25, 2024

4. Chinese Hackers Targeted Phones of Trump, Vance, and Harris Campaign

No surprise. The Dark Quad supports neither Trump nor Harris. They only seek to sow chaos in the American political process.

Chinese Hackers Targeted Phones of Trump, Vance, and Harris Campaign

The major spy operation is said to have attacked dozens of others, including a Journal reporter

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/chinese-hackers-targeted-phones-of-trump-vance-and-harris-campaign-e04abbdf?mod=latest_headlines

By Dustin Volz

, Aruna Viswanatha

and Sarah Krouse

Updated Oct. 25, 2024 5:44 pm ET

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and running mate JD Vance. Photo: Mike Segar/Reuters

WASHINGTON—The Chinese hackers who burrowed into the networks of U.S. telecommunications firms have used their deep access to target the phones of former President Donald Trump, his running mate, JD Vance, and people affiliated with Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, according to people familiar with the matter.

It wasn’t clear what data the hackers were able to obtain from any of these devices. The hackers are believed to be tied to China’s intelligence services.

Investigators have notified a bipartisan group of politicians targeted by the hackers, some of the people said. A number of prominent Democrats in Congress were among the targets, including staff for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.), a Democratic aide said.

The known scope of the attack has grown substantially in recent weeks as the investigation has progressed, the people said. Investigators now believe that the hackers gained access to U.S. telecommunications infrastructure and targeted or compromised at least several dozen different companies and people.

The hackers have shown unusually aggressive tactics since being discovered last month, disturbing the federal and private-sector investigators working to address the cyber-espionage campaign. The hackers have attempted to re-enter patched systems after being ejected from them, the people said.

Investigators also discovered earlier this month that the state-aligned actor had unsuccessfully attempted to access an account held by a Wall Street Journal journalist involved in coverage of the breaches. Microsoft, which has been deeply involved in the investigation, notified the journalist this week that the group behind those attacks, known as Salt Typhoon, had tried to access the consumer-facing account after the Journal first revealed the nature of the attacks last month.

AT&T is among the companies whose networks were penetrated by Chinese hackers. Photo: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg News

The boldness of the hackers’ activities, the vast breadth of the espionage and the timing of the attacks weeks before the presidential contest have some officials worried about the possibility of a far more significant effort to interfere or disrupt the election, some of the people said. Experts who track foreign influence efforts say the days right before an election are the most vulnerable to attack, as the proximity to voting leaves little time to mount a response.

“They’re taunting us,” one person involved in the response said. “What is the diplomatic messaging behind them doing it, them showing us that they’re doing it, and continuing to do it after they are caught?” The brazenness of the operation, the person said, marked a “new frontier” in how the Chinese government is leveraging cyber activity against the U.S.

In a statement, the Trump campaign didn’t directly address the alleged targeting of Trump and Vance, which was earlier reported Friday by the New York Times. The Trump campaign did, however, accuse the Biden administration of being weak against U.S. adversaries.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation, in a separate statement Friday, confirmed it was investigating “unauthorized access to commercial telecommunications infrastructure” by Chinese actors. The statement was the first formal acknowledgment by the U.S. government about the massive breach.

Senior Biden administration officials are still grappling with the extent of the intrusions, with some viewing them as potentially catastrophic to national security. The hackers are believed to have targeted systems used by the companies to comply with court-authorized surveillance wiretaps, in an effort to monitor U.S. law enforcement activities, the Journal previously reported.

There could be valuable information to foreign spy services on the phones of top U.S. politicians, who are a frequent target of nation-state hackers. This includes text messages and phone call records, and for Trump and Vance such access could reveal close associates of the potential next president and vice president.

Separately, criminal and state-sponsored hackers often target journalists in hopes of gleaning insight about their reporting and confidential sources. But former intelligence officials said the direct targeting of Western reporters by a hacking squad that had been identified by those reporters was highly unusual and likely an attempt at retaliation or intimidation.

A spokesman at the Chinese Embassy in Washington has denied that Beijing is responsible for the alleged breaches.

In recent weeks, the White House has convened highly confidential meetings to assess the damage of the compromises, which included intrusions into Verizon, AT&T and Lumen, the Journal previously reported.

“We are aware that a highly sophisticated nation-state actor has reportedly targeted several U.S. telecommunications providers to gather intelligence,” Verizon spokesman Rich Young said. He added that the company was working with law enforcement and experts to “assess and remediate any potential impact.”

Officials within the Biden administration are weighing a range of possible responses to China, according to people familiar with the matter.

“This is too big an initiative by our adversaries for this to just lie fallow,” retired Gen. Paul Nakasone, who stepped down earlier this year from running the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command, said earlier this week. While the campaign largely appeared to be focused on intelligence collection, “what’s different about this is the scale,” Nakasone said.

U.S. spy agencies have concluded and said publicly that Russia favors Trump in the election and is pushing covert influence campaigns to boost his campaign, while Iran is favoring Harris. China has been seen as active in down-ballot races but not trying to influence the presidential campaign, intelligence officials have said, while cautioning that things could always change as Election Day nears.

Drew FitzGerald, Alex Leary and Robert McMillan contributed to this article.

Write to Dustin Volz at dustin.volz@wsj.com, Aruna Viswanatha at aruna.viswanatha@wsj.com and Sarah Krouse at sarah.krouse@wsj.com

Appeared in the October 26, 2024, print edition as 'Chinese Hackers Target Trump, Vance'.

5. Ukraine Is Striking Deeper Inside Russia—and Reshaping the War

Ukraine Is Striking Deeper Inside Russia—and Reshaping the War

Restrictions on American missiles remain, but Kyiv has leveraged its own drone attacks to inflict growing pain across Russia

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-is-striking-deeper-inside-russiaand-reshaping-the-war-23e0174d?mod=latest_headlines

Two Weeks of Ukrainian Drone Strikes Achieve More Than Two Years of Sanctions: russian Artillery Fire Rate Dropped By 1.5x | Defense Express

Ukraine's strikes on GRAU arsenals and ammunition depots in russia significantly reduced the number of artillery shells in the russian army. If this continues, Ukraine may soon reach parity

en.defence-ua.com

The intensity of artillery fire from russian invasion forces in Ukraine has significantly decreased following a series of drone strikes on large ammunition depots inside russian territory, according to Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk, First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine.

In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Havryliuk revealed that the current artillery fire ratio between Ukrainian and russian forces is about 1:2. This marks an improvement from early summer 2024, when the ratio was 1:3, and even more so compared to the beginning of the year, when the ratio heavily favored russia at 1:7, 1:8, or worse.

Illustrative photo: a Ukrainian artilleryman shows his stock of 152mm ammunition / Photo credit: Ukrainian Land Forces

Data from Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, included in a report presented August 20, 2024, allows for an estimate of russia’s current daily ammunition expenditure.

During the summer of 2024, when the fire ratio was 1:3, russia used approximately 45,000 shells per day. Based on the current ratio of 1:2, it is estimated that russian forces are now firing around 30,000 shells daily, assuming Ukraine continues to use about 15,000 shells a day as before.

Ukraine's top commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reports on the recorded daily artillery ammunition spending of Ukraine's and russia's sides at the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities on August 20, 2024 / Screenshot credit: United News

Artillery is the backbone of russia’s offensive and defensive capabilities, so reducing russia's artillery superiority is critical for shifting the dynamics on the frontline.

Deputy Minister Havryliuk believes this reduction in russian firepower is attributed directly to Ukraine’s drone strikes on russian ammunition depots between September 18 and October 9. One of the most impactful strikes occurred in mid-September, when aerial suicide drones hit the 107th Arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU), a massive facility spanning 5 square kilometers. The explosions were so powerful that they caused a small earthquake.

Explosion at the 107th GRAU Arsenal near Toropets, russia, September 18th, 2024 / Open-source photo

In the following days, drones targeted the 23rd GRAU Arsenal and the 719th Base of artillery ammunition. While the 23rd Arsenal was only half the size of the previous one at 2.6 square kilometers, it still housed a significant stockpile. The 719th Base, though not officially a GRAU arsenal, played a huge role in supplying russian forces in Ukraine, with ammunition stored at a density exceeding permitted limits.

The final strike of this campaign took place on October 9, targeting the 67th GRAU Arsenal, which covers 3.5 square kilometers. The extent of the damage is not fully known, but given the size of the facility, the impact is likely considerable as well.

In just two weeks, Ukraine’s drone strikes on these key russian ammunition depots have yielded more tangible results than two years of economic sanctions against russia. Even Western experts are skeptical about the approach aiming to cut russian access to core electronics instead of focusing efforts on disrupting a specific supply chain, like the artillery barrel production.

155mm artillery shell / Illustrative photo credit: Artillery and Missiles troops of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

en.defence-ua.com

7. China’s Massive Fishing Fleet Overwhelms Locals in ‘David and Goliath’ Battle

Perhaps not on everyone's radar (except for SOUTHCOM and PACOM - which combatant command has an interest in this or is it both?).

China’s Massive Fishing Fleet Overwhelms Locals in ‘David and Goliath’ Battle

Off the Peruvian coast, one of the world’s richest fishing grounds is under pressure

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/chinas-massive-fishing-fleet-overwhelms-locals-in-david-and-goliath-battle-a2b64ea6?mod=latest_headlines

By Ryan Dubé

| Photographs by Angela Ponce for WSJ

Updated Oct. 26, 2024 12:04 am ET

PAITA, Peru—For three decades, Francisco Chiroque’s livelihood has depended on the jumbo squid that flourish off this country’s Pacific coast in one of the world’s richest fishing grounds. This year, his catch has collapsed.

Chiroque and the Peruvian fishing industry blame the hundreds of gigantic Chinese fishing ships patrolling the edge of Peru’s national waters. Peru’s squid catch is down 70% so far this year, which the fishing industry says is a result of the industrial-scale fishing that Chinese companies have brought to seas normally plied by individuals in small boats, sometimes called artisan fishermen.

“They fish and fish, day and night,” said Chiroque, 49 years old, the head of the squid-fisherman association in Paita, a city on Peru’s far northern Pacific coast that is home to its squid-fishing industry. “The plundering is awful.”

The woes of Peru’s squid fishermen mark the latest round of international tensions involving China’s overseas fishing fleet, by far the world’s largest. U.S. officials and conservationists say China’s thousands of industrial-size vessels endanger ecosystems and threaten fishing industries from Africa to Latin America.

Overfishing has become a flashpoint of geopolitical friction between Beijing and the U.S., which has sided with countries such as Peru. The Biden administration has sanctioned Chinese-flagged ships for so-called illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, which the U.S. says has surpassed piracy as the leading global maritime-security threat.

Francisco Chiroque now works as a banana farmer.

The U.S. Coast Guard has conducted operations against illegal fishing off the coast of South America. For the first time, the Coast Guard recently boarded fishing vessels off the coast of Peru and Ecuador.

“It’s unfair competition,” said Elsa Vega, president of an association of Peru’s artisan fishermen. “It’s like David and Goliath.”

Beijing sees its distant-water fleet, made up of thousands of heavily subsidized ships, as crucial to its drive to become a maritime superpower while providing millions of jobs and feeding its 1.4 billion people. Overfishing in Asia has pushed Chinese ships farther from home. Beijing has also said the development of its fishing fleet is critical to safeguarding China’s maritime rights.

China’s Foreign Ministry said the Chinese fleet isn’t responsible for the decrease in squid catches, pointing out that Peru’s own government has attributed the decline to changing ocean temperatures.

The ministry said China has always respected Peru’s maritime zone, strictly abides by rules for fishing in international waters, and closely monitors the position of distant-water fleets. It said it has a zero-tolerance approach to combat illegal fishing.

Paita is on Peru’s far northern Pacific coast.

“China is a responsible fishing country,” the ministry said. “Fishery cooperation is a highlight of China-Peru cooperation.”

China’s fishing dominance has fueled a backlash across countries of the global South, where Beijing has generally outmaneuvered Washington but risks overreaching. Off Ghana, Chinese ships have exhausted small, sardine-like fish vital to coastal communities, according to local officials and conservationists. In the Indian Ocean, Chinese tuna ships have been accused of forced labor and shark finning, a practice banned by the U.S. In 2016, Argentina’s coast guard sank a Chinese ship it accused of illegal fishing.

“In all of the world’s seas, this fleet is known for committing grave infractions,” said Alfonso Miranda, head of Calamasur, a group made up of squid industry representatives from Mexico, Ecuador, Peru and Chile. “It could result in the disappearance of Peru’s artisan fishermen.”

In Peru, wooden boats that would normally be out at sea now float idly alongside pelicans and seagulls in Paita’s bay. Out-of-work fishermen are burning through savings. Some try to make a living driving three-wheeled moto-taxis.

Segundo Meza, a 54-year-old squid fisherman, said he initially paid little attention to the Chinese ships during bountiful years, when Peruvians caught so many that they dumped squid back into the sea.

“We aren’t saints either,” he said, believing that Peruvians also overfished squid.

Meza now spends his days helping to care for his grandson. The boy’s father, also a fisherman, left to work on a blueberry farm. To save money, his family stopped paying utility bills and skips breakfast.

“The sea is my life,” he said. “But the situation right now is chaotic.”

The Pacific Ocean off Peru once supported the rise of ancient civilizations that sailed out to sea on reed boats. More recently, the cool, nutrient-rich waters have spurred a modern industry exporting seafood worldwide, but that trade has taken a hit this year. Peruvian seafood company Seafrost has processed just 25% of the squid that it had planned for this year, said Baruch Byrne, operations manager of its Paita plant.

Squid-exporting fishing company Seafrost has reduced operations in Paita.

Seafrost has processed far less of the squid that it had planned for this year, said Baruch Byrne.

The first Chinese fleet of 22 ships arrived off the western coast of South America in 2001, traveling across the Pacific for jumbo squid, a voracious animal that can grow to nearly 10 feet over a lifespan of 12 to 18 months.

Those ships caught 17,700 tons of squid that year, according to the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organization, a New Zealand-based intergovernmental group that includes the U.S. and China and that oversees fisheries in the Pacific. Now, the Chinese fishing boats haul in some 500,000 tons of squid annually from those waters.

The fleet has since grown to around 500 ships. They use bright lights to attract squid to the surface at night. From space, the ships look like a floating city. A mother ship transports the catch back to China. Other vessels provide fuel. One serves as a hospital for crew members, says Eloy Aroni, a fishing expert at Artisonal, a Peru-based organization that tracks the fleet.

Satellite images show the fleet spends much of the year just outside the 200 nautical miles that are part of Peru’s maritime territory, hugging the border as it follows the squid north and south.

Peru’s ships have little chance of competing. The squid move both inside and outside of Peru’s maritime waters, meaning that even if Chinese ships don’t enter Peruvian waters, their catch has repercussions for locals.

Francisco Chiroque with a jumbo squid. Photo: Francisco Chiroque

Some fishermen here say they have seen the Chinese ships fishing inside Peru’s waters, accusing them of shutting off their tracking devices to avoid detection.

In July, local fishermen jumped on their wooden boats to surround and yell insults at the crew of an industrial Chinese ship that tried to dock in Paita.

The fishing industry says it has received little support from the government of President Dina Boluarte, who traveled to Beijing in June to deepen ties with China.

Today, Chinese companies own some of Peru’s biggest copper mines, while others will control virtually all of the power distribution in the capital, Lima.

In November, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is scheduled to inaugurate a Chinese-owned megaport in Peru during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

by changes in the ocean triggered by the El Niño warm weather phenomenon. The population should bounce back next year, he said.

Juan Carlos Riveros, a biologist who is the science director in Peru for Oceana, a Washington, D.C.-based conservation organization, said that while squid are susceptible to changing temperatures, overfishing is the culprit. Peru’s squid catches declined during a 2016 El Niño, but not as much as today.

“In reality, what we are witnessing is a case of overfishing,” he said

Elvis Chiroque says that he plans to change occupations because his squid operation is no longer viable.

After he finished high school 15 years ago, fishing squid was one of the few jobs in Paita for Elvis Chiroque (who isn’t related to Francisco Chiroque). Back then, his boat could haul up about 15 tons of squid in a week.

But in recent years, Chiroque, 34, noticed the squid were getting smaller. And he had to stay out longer to catch the same amount as before.

During his last trip in August, Chiroque was at sea for 22 days. He came back with a ton of squid, a fraction of what was needed to cover costs.

“We felt sad, thinking of our families, how we weren’t going to make any money,” he said

Now, the father of three plans to leave Paita for a job picking mangoes. “We have to do something,” he said.

For years, the fleet in Paita has fished for jumbo squid offshore.

Write to Ryan Dubé at ryan.dube@wsj.com

Appeared in the October 26, 2024, print edition as 'China’s Fleets Overwhelm Fishing in Peru'.

8. Former Soviet State Reaches ‘Moment of Truth’: Russia or the West

This is the conundrum for those who support democracy and the rules based international order. If the democratic process results in a shift from the "west" or the camp of like minded democracies, do we respect the democratic process that took place in the country or do we lament the fact that we "lost" a country that may become a member of the authoritarian axis? The same question could be asked of Taiwan if a democratic election ever results in Taiwanese political leaders who will seek peaceful unification with the PRC. What would we do about the "loss" of Taiwan in such a case?

Former Soviet State Reaches ‘Moment of Truth’: Russia or the West

An election in Georgia, once seen as pro-Western, will decide whether the country slides firmly into Moscow’s sphere of influence

https://www.wsj.com/world/former-soviet-state-reaches-moment-of-truth-russia-or-the-west-63a710d0?mod=latest_headlines

By Georgi KantchevFollow

| Photographs by Justyna Mielnikiewicz for WSJ

Oct. 26, 2024 8:27 am ET

TBILISI, Georgia—Once considered the most pro-Western nation among former Soviet states, Georgia is at a crossroads.

A parliamentary election Saturday will decide whether it turns back toward the West and strengthens ties with Europe or slides firmly into Moscow’s sphere of influence.

The ruling party, Georgian Dream, has sparked protests this year with a series of laws that are widely seen as borrowing from Russia’s authoritarian playbook, clamping down on gay rights and requiring some groups with foreign funding to register as foreign agents. The party has cast the vote as a choice between war and peace. Campaign billboards juxtapose images of devastation in Ukraine—damaged churches, streets and classrooms—with idyllic Georgian landscapes and infrastructure projects.

That’s a message that resonates in this nation of 3.7 million where Russian forces still occupy 20% of the country after a war more than 15 years ago, despite opinion polls that show overwhelming support for joining the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Polls suggest a close race that could tip in either direction.

Posters for the ruling Georgian Dream party hang in Tbilisi, including one juxtaposing war-damaged Ukraine in black and white with Georgia in color.

Giorgi Gakharia, a former prime minister turned opposition leader of the For Georgia party, paints the election as a simple yet momentous choice: “Do we want to be with the West or with Russia? Do we want democracy or autocracy?”

Russia sees the region as its backyard, and its shadow looms large. Nearly every country in the region is facing an internal struggle over how much influence Russia will have. Armenia is attempting to pivot Westward, while Azerbaijan is strengthening ties with Russia. Earlier this month, a Russia-backed campaign nearly thwarted the pro-EU side in a referendum in Moldova.

“Georgia is key because the West needs a virtuous counter model to the system of governance that you see in that region, especially in Russia,” said Ian Kelly, a former U.S. ambassador to Georgia who is now teaching at Northwestern University. “We need a stable and reliable partner in this volatile region.”

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell recently called the vote a “moment of truth” for Georgia and the West. The bloc this summer halted Tbilisi’s application to join after the government pushed for legislation that the U.S. and the EU say stifles fundamental freedoms. The U.S. introduced visa restrictions and suspended $95 million in aid.

That moment isn’t lost on people like Nina Areshidze, a 20-year-old psychology student who joined mass antigovernment protests earlier this year. Last month, the organization she works for, which offers student-exchange programs, had to close because of the legislation.

“Our hopes to join the West were pushed down,” she said. “Now is the moment to fight back.”

Student Nina Areshidze has joined mass protests against the Georgian government. Opposition leader Giorgi Gakharia says its goal of cutting Western ties would be a threat to peace.

On Friday evening, the main roads exiting the capital city of Tbilisi were clogged with traffic as people rushed to go and vote at their registered addresses.

Georgia was once lauded as a democratic trailblazer among former Soviet states after taking steps to reduce corruption and improve press freedoms. But in recent years, Georgian Dream, in government for over a decade, has tightened its grip on independent institutions, including the judiciary, while becoming more hostile toward the EU and the U.S.

Now, the party warns that the West is seeking to drag Georgia into a conflict with Russia, stirring fear in a country where memories are still fresh of a five-day war in 2008, when Moscow troops invaded to back the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Voters leaving Tbilisi to cast ballots at their registered addresses were among those making their way out of the city as the election approached.

“It’s a fateful election because Georgia is very vulnerable,” said Levan Makhashvili, a senior parliament official running for Georgian Dream. “The population has to choose between war and peace.”

While it hasn’t had formal diplomatic relations with Moscow since the 2008 war, Georgia since the invasion of Ukraine has increased flights to Russia, deepened its energy and economic reliance and welcomed thousands of Russian tourists. Georgia hasn’t implemented bilateral sanctions on Moscow and has become a conduit for sanctions circumvention as Russia seeks to import banned goods such as microchips to use in weapons manufacturing.

“We cannot ignore Russia, our economy is dependent on it, but we have to re-establish connections to the EU and the U.S.,” said Mamuka Khazaradze, a businessman who now leads the opposition party Lelo for Georgia. “That’s how we survive.”

Georgian Dream candidate Levan Makhashvili, wearing sweater, presents the election as a matter of war and peace. His opponent Mamuka Khazaradze sees Western links as crucial.

Meanwhile, the government has signed a strategic partnership agreement with China. Earlier this year, Georgia announced that a Chinese consortium is set to build a large deep-sea port on the country’s Black Sea Coast.

Backlash against Georgian Dream boiled over into protests this year after it enacted legislation that critics call the “Russian law.” It requires groups that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as foreign agents. The law closely resembles Russia’s “foreign agent” laws used to suppress dissent.

Further mirroring tactics used by President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the Georgian government also passed a law imposing sweeping curbs on LGBTQ rights. The legislation coincided with an increase in attacks against LGBTQ activists, culminating in the fatal stabbing of a prominent transgender activist in her Tbilisi apartment in September.

Ahead of Saturday’s election, Georgian Dream has also threatened opposition parties with persecution.

Georgians filled Tbilisi's streets last weekend for a pro-EU rally.

The party rejects accusations of repressive tactics, saying it has brought economic growth and the laws it has enacted are necessary and can be challenged in court. The Kremlin on Friday dismissed allegations of trying to influence Georgia. But Russian officials have praised the government for implementing the recent legislation and resisting what they describe as a Western agenda.

The war-and-peace messaging has struck a chord with voters like Ketevan Amirejibi, a 70-year-old historian and translator.

“We are not in a situation where we can afford to openly confront Russia,” she said. “Our economy is tied to Russia and a war today will destroy everything.”

Gakharia, the former prime minister, said that while he understood people’s fears, peace is only possible if Georgia has strong links to the West. “Peace with Russia is rather unusual,” he said.

Write to Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com

Ketevan Amirejibi says confronting Russia would be too risky for Georgia. The country's capital features a landmark known as the Bridge of Peace.

9. How Army and Navy Football Have Marched to Undefeated Records

I just hope this article does not jinx our beloved service academies in their games today and the rest of the season. It would be great to see both times play against each with undefeated records in December and then play each other again in a bowl game.

As an aside, both teams have demonstrated strategic thinking and Frank Hoffman's principle of understanding (they understood the implications of the rule change and translated that understanding into strategic effects) here.

Hopefully that will translate and be demonstrated in the rest of their careers.

As Marshall said: "I want an officer for a secret and dangerous mission. I want a West Point Football player!"

A future SECDEF or CJCS may say I need a sound national defense strategy, send me a West Point or Annapolis football player.

Excerpts:

In 2018, the NCAA banned open-field blocks below the waist as part of its ongoing efforts to curtail injuries. Four years later, after a sharp decrease in lower body injuries, the rule was expanded a stage further, outlawing all blocking below the waist outside of the tackle box.

For Army and Navy, that slight tweak to the rulebook redrew the battle lines of the sport.

Most teams don’t design their blocking schemes around taking out an opponents’ knees and ankles. But Army and Navy do. The reason is their players are usually smaller and lighter than their opponents in order to comply with the military’s strict requirements on body composition and physical fitness. Size matters on the gridiron, and so-called “cut blocking” is one way to negate that disadvantage.

Or rather, it was. When downfield cut blocking was banned, it marked a rare thing that both cadets and midshipmen could agree on. Fans launched a petition to change the rule back, which garnered nearly 2,000 signatures. Steve Shaw, who heads up the NCAA’s rules committee, said he fielded a series of calls from Jeff Monken in which the Army coach sounded “like a person going through stages of grief.”

Monken and Navy coach Brian Newberry eventually came to terms with the new rules, accepting that they’d have to take some risks on offense to stay competitive.

At West Point, Monken made a drastic shift. He pointed Army toward the skies, hiring a new offensive coordinator from the pass-heavy “Air Raid” scheme—about as far removed as you can get from the triple option. The Black Knights moved to the shotgun and switched to a zone blocking scheme, which meant asking the offensive linemen to beef up in the weight room, said offensive line coach Matt Drinkall. The extra work, he added, “Completely changed how we look and operate.”

...

Following a 5-7 season that included a loss to Army, Newberry made a strategic pivot. For this season, he hired Drew Cronic to be his new offensive coordinator to install a scheme dubbed the “Gen-Z Wing-T.” It blends the run-pass option concepts that have surged in popularity in the last decade with old school option football that relies on finesse, misdirection and short play-action passes.

The passing game, long an afterthought in Annapolis, is a key aspect to the new scheme. Navy is passing for 52% more yards while attempting three fewer passes per game in 2024 and Horvath has turned himself into a dark horse Heisman contender. The Gen-Z Wing-T restored a tactical advantage that Navy once derived from cut blocking. “Hopefully some of the weirdness of our formations and maybe some shift in motions makes them play maybe one step slower,” Cronic said.

How Army and Navy Football Have Marched to Undefeated Records

The Black Knights and Midshipmen are waging their most successful campaigns since World War II—thanks to a rules change and a strategic shift

https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/army-navy-football-ec3f2c7b?mod=latest_headlines

By Laine Higgins

Oct. 25, 2024 9:00 pm ET

The Michigan Wolverines are toast. Alabama can’t stop beating itself. And the best team in the Big Ten resides in Eugene, Ore.

It has been a strange, strange year in college football, but here’s the weirdest thing of all: For the first time in forever, Army and Navy are two of the most dominant teams in the entire sport.

Midway through the 2024 season, Army is 7-0 and ranked 23rd in the nation, while Navy is at No. 24 with a 6-0 record ahead of a high stakes showdown on Saturday against No. 12 Notre Dame. They are two of only three programs, along with Indiana, to have won every game by double digits. And it’s no exaggeration to say that they will be a handful for every team in the country.

All of which sounds like something from a bygone era. The service academies haven’t won a national championship since World War II and haven’t produced a Heisman Trophy winner since the 1960s. The last time they both had perfect records at this stage of the season was back in 1926, when Calvin Coolidge was in the White House, the forward pass was in its infancy and the National Football League was six years old.

But now, nearly a century later—and at a time when college football is changing more rapidly than ever before—Army and Navy have somehow found their way back to national relevance, with legitimate hopes of a conference championship and even a spot in the expanded playoff.

“We appreciate being relevant,” said Navy quarterback Blake Horvath. “But at the same time we want to work and we have bigger aspirations than six wins.”

Navy celebrates their win over Charlotte. Photo: Nick Wass/Associated Press

How Army and Navy got here wasn’t down to some masterplan executed with military precision. In fact, it can be traced back to a minor rule change made six years ago, which the rest of the sport barely noticed.

In 2018, the NCAA banned open-field blocks below the waist as part of its ongoing efforts to curtail injuries. Four years later, after a sharp decrease in lower body injuries, the rule was expanded a stage further, outlawing all blocking below the waist outside of the tackle box.

For Army and Navy, that slight tweak to the rulebook redrew the battle lines of the sport.

Most teams don’t design their blocking schemes around taking out an opponents’ knees and ankles. But Army and Navy do. The reason is their players are usually smaller and lighter than their opponents in order to comply with the military’s strict requirements on body composition and physical fitness. Size matters on the gridiron, and so-called “cut blocking” is one way to negate that disadvantage.

Or rather, it was. When downfield cut blocking was banned, it marked a rare thing that both cadets and midshipmen could agree on. Fans launched a petition to change the rule back, which garnered nearly 2,000 signatures. Steve Shaw, who heads up the NCAA’s rules committee, said he fielded a series of calls from Jeff Monken in which the Army coach sounded “like a person going through stages of grief.”

Monken and Navy coach Brian Newberry eventually came to terms with the new rules, accepting that they’d have to take some risks on offense to stay competitive.

At West Point, Monken made a drastic shift. He pointed Army toward the skies, hiring a new offensive coordinator from the pass-heavy “Air Raid” scheme—about as far removed as you can get from the triple option. The Black Knights moved to the shotgun and switched to a zone blocking scheme, which meant asking the offensive linemen to beef up in the weight room, said offensive line coach Matt Drinkall. The extra work, he added, “Completely changed how we look and operate.”

Army coach Jeff Monken chats with his team in the locker room. Photo: Lynn Fern/Zuma Press

The offensive line was a bright spot last year, enabling Army to employ a more conventional power running game. But embracing the pass didn’t go as smoothly. Army attempted 57% more passes per game than the previous season, but gained 15% fewer yards per attempt. Things got worse as the season went on—the Black Knights averaged 143.5 passing yards in their first six games, but just 62 in their last six.

“It was maybe a little bit of an overcorrection,” Drinkall said.

The Black Knights finished 6-6 and for the 2024 season and Monken decided to go back to playing option football under center. The difference was that Army had learned how to wage a ground campaign without cut blocking.

Navy took a different tack in 2023: they stayed the course. In his first year as head coach, Newberry doubled down on the Midshipmen’s roots, sticking with the spread option despite the rules changes.

The problem was that without the ability to cut-block, the scheme sputtered. Perimeter blockers had to learn new mechanics while the quarterback had less time to make a play.

“Defenders were playing a lot quicker against our offense,” said Horvath, the Navy quarterback, “because they had no fear of getting cut down.”

Following a 5-7 season that included a loss to Army, Newberry made a strategic pivot. For this season, he hired Drew Cronic to be his new offensive coordinator to install a scheme dubbed the “Gen-Z Wing-T.” It blends the run-pass option concepts that have surged in popularity in the last decade with old school option football that relies on finesse, misdirection and short play-action passes.

Navy quarterback Blake Horvath drops back to pass the ball. Photo: David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The passing game, long an afterthought in Annapolis, is a key aspect to the new scheme. Navy is passing for 52% more yards while attempting three fewer passes per game in 2024 and Horvath has turned himself into a dark horse Heisman contender.

The Gen-Z Wing-T restored a tactical advantage that Navy once derived from cut blocking. “Hopefully some of the weirdness of our formations and maybe some shift in motions makes them play maybe one step slower,” Cronic said.

On Saturday, facing a bigger and faster team in Notre Dame, he’s hoping that slight hesitation is precisely the weak point that Navy can exploit. The Midshipmen, after all, know a thing or two about the art of war.

Write to Laine Higgins at laine.higgins@wsj.com

Appeared in the October 26, 2024, print edition as 'A Big Season for Army, Navy Football'.

10. Live Updates: Israel’s Retaliatory Attack on Iran Appears Carefully Calibrated

A number of articles at one link:

Here are the latest developments.

‘The vibe is not normal’: The Israeli attack puts Iranians on edge.

What Israel Hit in the Airstrikes

In deciding whether to retaliate, Iran faces a dilemma.

Live Updates: Israel’s Retaliatory Attack on Iran Appears Carefully Calibrated

Israel struck military bases but avoided targeting nuclear facilities. Iran has so far largely played down the attack, but now faces a decision about how to respond.an

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza

Patrick Kingsley Farnaz Fassihi Ronen Bergman and Steven Erlanger

Here are the latest developments.

Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran early Saturday marked a new escalation between the two archrivals, although it appeared to be calibrated to stop short of all-out war.

Israel, which for the first time publicly acknowledged conducting a military operation inside Iran, targeted military facilities in its attack. But it avoided sensitive nuclear sites that the Biden administration had warned against striking.

Iran largely played down the strike, which it said had killed two soldiers, easing fears of an uncontrollable conflict between the two most powerful militaries in the Middle East. Tehran now faces a decision about whether to up the ante: If it retaliates, that could further fan the flames of crisis, but if not, it runs the risk of looking weak with its allies and at home.

The attack came after a large barrage of ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel early this month in response to the assassinations of several officials of Iran and its allies. On Saturday, Israel’s fighter jets focused on roughly 20 military installations, including air defense batteries, radar stations and missile production sites, according to Israeli officials.

Iran’s national air defense force said that Israel had attacked military bases in three provinces but that air defenses had been able to limit the damage. Three news agencies said that the city of Tehran itself had not been hit and that civilian airports were operating normally, though blasts could be heard throughout the capital.

For years, Israel and Iran have fought a clandestine war in which each side targets the other’s interests and allies, while rarely taking responsibility for their attacks. That turned into open confrontation as the war between Israel and Hamas, Iran’s ally in Gaza, pulled the two countries toward a direct clash.

After the Hamas-led attack in Israel a year ago unleashed Israel’s devastating war in Gaza, Iran’s other proxies in Middle East, including Hezbollah, began striking Israel in solidarity with their Palestinian ally. Israel, in turn, scaled up its attacks on Iranian interests around the region, with both sides responding in force as tensions flared at various moments.

Here’s what else to know:

Iran’s reaction: Iran’s Foreign Ministry accused Israel of inflaming tensions across the region and said that Tehran was “entitled and obligated to defend itself against foreign acts of aggression.” State television and media outlets affiliated with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps played down the attacks.
Gaza and Lebanon: Israel’s latest military offensive in northern Gaza entered its third week as its air force and ground troops pressed on with the fight in Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes killed three people in Jabaliya, according to the official Palestinian news media, and Israel said its forces had struck sites in Lebanon and battled Hezbollah fighters in multiple locations in the last day.
United States informed: The Pentagon said that Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III had spoken with Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, to receive updates on the strikes in Iran. Sean Savett, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said after the attack began that the United States had been informed of Israel’s plans.
Warning from Israel: The Israeli military warned Iran against further escalation, saying in a statement that it would be “obligated to respond.” Daniel Hagari, a military spokesman, said in a news conference that there were no immediate changes to the government’s civil defense orders to the public, indicating that the authorities were not expecting an attack.

Show less

Oct. 26, 2024, 9:31 a.m. ET37 minutes ago

Claire Moses and Leily Nikounazar

‘The vibe is not normal’: The Israeli attack puts Iranians on edge.

Image

In Tehran on Saturday after the Israeli strikes on Iran.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

Iranians voiced a sense of anxiety and uncertainty on Saturday after a round of retaliatory strikes by Israel on their country, but some said they felt a dim hope about what may lie ahead.

“Today at work, everyone was speaking of the attacks,” said Soheil, a 37-year-old engineer who lives in the central city of Isfahan. His colleagues saw some reason for hope that a wider war could be averted, given that Israel attacked only military targets on Saturday, he added.

“It seems that people are hopeful that soon the situation will be back to normal,” he told The New York Times when reached by telephone.

“The vibe is not normal, though, at the moment,” he said. “People are experiencing different emotions: Some are worried, some indifferent and some are even happy, because they believe that Israel attacks will humble the regime a bit.”

Soheil, like other Iranians reached by The Times on Saturday, asked not to be identified by his full name for fear of retribution.

Iranian officials and the state news media played down the Israeli attack, calling the damage “limited” and claiming that Iran’s air defense had intercepted the strikes.

Israel did not strike sensitive sites related to Iran’s nuclear program or oil production facilities in retaliation for the large barrage of ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel this month. And while the attack marked a new escalation between the two archrivals, it appeared to be calibrated to stop short of all-out war.

After the attack was completed, Iran did not immediately threaten to retaliate, but it did say that it had the right to do so.

On state television on Saturday, reporters around Tehran, the nation’s capital, cheerfully proclaimed that all was well. Live shots showed a vegetable market and morning rush-hour traffic.

But for some residents, it was a night of little sleep and high anxiety as the sounds of explosions kept them up.

Maryam Naraghi, an Iranian journalist, said she had heard “the sound of bombs and explosions” from her home in Tehran, the capital.

Houri, a 42-year-old mother of two in Tehran, said in a telephone interview that after a night of loud explosions and consoling her children, she was anxious about what lay ahead for Iranians, many of them having grown weary of conflict and years of economic hardship.

She said her husband had stayed glued to satellite television and social media all night for updates on the attacks because Iran’s state news media offered little information.

Yashar Soltani, a journalist, said he had woken up in Tehran to the sounds of an attack that seemed to be nearby.

“I saw very big lights in the sky,” he said.

The attack on military bases and other targets in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran Provinces lasted only a few hours and was over by about 5 a.m., Israeli officials said.

As the sun rose on Saturday, people in Iran tried to go on with their day as usual, hoping that a wider war could be avoided.

Shadi, a 41-year-old living in Tehran, said she had not heard any of the explosions overnight.

“We people of Iran are victims of all these political games,” she said. “We have experienced so much that we all have become somehow numb.”

Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting.

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What Israel Hit in the Airstrikes

Israel struck air defense systems in Syria and Iraq to prevent those countries from intercepting the attacks.

Israel continued

airstrikes in Lebanon

and Gaza.

Syria

Tehran

province

lebanon

IrAQ

IRAN

Ilam

gaza

Israel struck military sites in three provinces, including Tehran. Earlier this month, Iran fired about 200 missiles at Israel.

ISRAEL

Khuzestan

Red

Sea

SAUDI

ARABIA

Persian

Gulf

300 miles

Gulf of Oman

By Pablo Robles

Oct. 26, 2024, 8:11 a.m. ET2 hours ago

Diego Ibarra Sanchez

People mourned at the funeral of Ghassan Mohamad Najjar, the photographer and videographer for Al-Mayadeen. He was killed by an Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese village of Hasbaya on Friday.

Image

Credit...Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York Times

Oct. 26, 2024, 7:25 a.m. ET3 hours ago

Steven ErlangerSteven Erlanger, a former Jerusalem bureau chief, also covered the Islamic Revolution and has written about the region for many years.

News analysis

In deciding whether to retaliate, Iran faces a dilemma.

Image

A view of Tehran after explosions were heard on Saturday during an attack on Iran by Israel.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

Iran faces a dilemma after the Israeli strikes on Saturday.

If it retaliates, it risks further escalation at a time when its economy is struggling, its allies are faltering, its military vulnerability is clear and its leadership succession is in play.

If it does not, it risks looking weak to those same allies, as well as to more aggressive and powerful voices at home.

Iran is already in the middle of a regional war. Since the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has moved swiftly to damage the militant group in Gaza and other Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis and its allies in Syria and Iraq.

These groups represent Iran’s “forward defense” against Israel, the heart of the nation’s deterrence. They have been badly weakened by the Israeli military’s tough response since Oct. 7, which weakens Iran, too, and makes it more vulnerable.

Iranian officials have made it clear that they do not want a direct war with Israel. They want to preserve their allies, the so-called ring of fire around Israel.

After Israel struck Iran, Tehran on Saturday publicly played down the effect of the attack and showed ordinary programming on television. It did not immediately vow a major retaliation, but simply restated its right to do so.

Adding to its reticence, Iran faces enormous economic problems, making it wary of an extended and costly war with Israel. It has been heavily penalized by the United States and Europe over its nuclear program, forcing it to move ever closer to Russia and China.

Image

Members of Hamas’ Qassam Brigades this month in Tripoli, Lebanon. Israel has moved hard against Iran’s proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iranian allies in Syria and Iraq.Credit...Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York Times

The Islamic regime is also dealing with serious domestic dissent over rising prices and its harsh rule, which play into any calculation for retaliation. The regime is both committed to the destruction of Israel, but also to preserving its power in a sophisticated country in which it is increasingly unpopular.

That is one reason, analysts believe, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, allowed the election of a more moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian, after the harder-line Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash. Against the backdrop of domestic unrest, Mr. Pezeshkian has pushed for new talks on Iran’s nuclear program in return for a lifting of economic sanctions, outreach that most likely could take place only with the permission of the supreme leader.

The nuclear program is its own dilemma. The damage to allies over the past year, as well as its clear technical and military weakness compared with Israel, will put more pressure on Iran to advance its nuclear program and go for a bomb.

Iran is already within weeks of creating bomb-quality uranium, and there are strong voices in Iran arguing that the best deterrent against Israel and the United States is to have nuclear weapons, as Israel itself possesses. But Iran also knows that a series of American presidents — including Donald J. Trump, who is running neck and neck against Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential race — have vowed to prevent Iran from attaining an operational nuclear weapon.

Complicating matters, a quiet battle has emerged over succession. Ayatollah Khamenei, 85, is believed to be seriously ill. With Mr. Raisi gone, there is internal disquiet over the possibility that Ayatollah Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba, 55, might succeed him. The powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will have an important say and is considered more willing to confront Israel.

Whatever Iran’s ultimate calculation, hoping to avoid a larger war does not mean it can.

Image

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, in June in Tehran. Mr. Khamenei, 85, is believed to be seriously ill, and there is a quiet battle over succession.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

Both Israel and Iran are eager to restore the so-called deterrence effect that they believe comes with retaliatory strikes. As they see it, it enhances their ability to intimidate each other and allows them to limit each other’s power, in what Jeremy Shapiro, a former American diplomat, has called their “geopolitical manhood.”

This past week, as might be expected, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that “in the event of an Israeli attack, the shape of our response will be proportionate and calculated.”

These back-and-forth attacks, however carefully calibrated, can easily spill over into wider violence if a hospital or a school is hit, even by accident, and causes significant civilian casualties.

As Daniel C. Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller wrote this week in Foreign Policy, “a spiraling tit for tat would likely prompt the Israelis to expand their target set, at a minimum, to include economic infrastructure.” From there, they added, “it’s certainly possible to imagine a regional escalation, including Iranian attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.”

But Iran may also choose to heed American and British advice to call an end to this round of retaliations as negotiations for cease-fires in Gaza and Lebanon gather pace.

Ali Vaez, the Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, said on X that Israel’s response was “considerably more robust” than the one in April.

Israel struck Iranian air defenses and missile manufacturing sites in three provinces, while also attacking targets in Iraq and Syria, according to Israel officials. But it avoided key infrastructure, energy and nuclear sites.

Image

A store on Saturday in Tehran. Adding to its reticence to retaliate, Iran faces enormous economic problems, making it wary of an extended and costly war with Israel.Credit...Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA, via Shutterstock

The key question, Mr. Vaez said, was simple: “Whether Tehran will absorb the hit and try to draw a line under this exchange or up the ante again with a counter-response.”

For Iran, the argument for climbing down the escalatory ladder is a strong one. But there are powerful voices like the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which regularly press for a more aggressive response.

The desire for Washington and Israel, too, is that the conflict with Iran “becomes once again a shadow war and not an overt war,” said David Makovsky, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “In today’s world that would be an achievement. You don’t end the enmity but bring it under control.”

Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East Program at Chatham House, said that the U.S. presidential election in November is also a factor. “If Iran wants to avoid a broader escalatory conflict in advance of the uncertain U.S. election, it must take the hit and play a longer strategic game focused on diplomatic outreach to the region and openings should they emerge from the West,” she said.

By playing down the effect of the strike and pressing for a cease-fire, she said, “Iran will try to turn the tables on Israel and translate its military weakness into diplomatic openings.”

11. China Tightens Its Hold on Minerals Needed to Make Computer Chips

China Tightens Its Hold on Minerals Needed to Make Computer Chips

Already the dominant producer of rare minerals, Beijing is using export restrictions and its power over state-owned companies to further control access.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/business/china-critical-minerals-semiconductors.html

The world’s largest mine for light rare earths is Baiyun Obo, a little north of Baotou in northern China’s Inner Mongolia.Credit...China Network/Reuters

By Keith Bradsher

Keith Bradsher reported from Zibo, China, and has covered the rare earths industry since 2009.

Oct. 26, 2024, 5:00 a.m. ET

The vise-tight grip that China wields over the mining and refining of rare minerals, crucial ingredients of today’s most advanced technologies, is about to become even stronger.

In a series of steps made in recent weeks, the Chinese government has made it considerably harder for foreign companies, particularly semiconductor manufacturers, to purchase the many rare earth metals and other minerals mined and refined mainly in China.

Already, China produces almost all the world’s supply of these materials. The new restrictions solidify that market dominance.

As of Oct. 1, exporters must provide the authorities with detailed, step-by-step tracings of how shipments of rare earth metals are used in Western supply chains. That has given Beijing greater authority over which overseas companies receive scarce supplies.

China is also taking greater corporate ownership over the mining and production of the metals. In a deal that has received almost no attention outside the country, the last two foreign-owned rare earth refineries in China are being acquired by one of the three state-owned companies that already run the other refineries in China.

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A worker stood back as flames leaped out of the oven where rare-earth-based chemicals are roasted for more than 20 hours.Credit...Ryan Pyle for The New York Times

Beijing’s recent moves to take charge of the supply chain include other obscure chemical elements that are also needed by semiconductor manufacturers. On Sept. 15, China’s Ministry of Commerce restricted exports of antimony, a material used in semiconductors, military explosives and other weaponry. Last year, the ministry imposed export controls on two other chemical elements, gallium and germanium, also needed to make chips.

National security officials have tightened the flow of information about rare earths. They have labeled rare earth mining and refining as state secrets. Last month, the Ministry of State Security announced that two managers in the rare earths industry had been sentenced to 11 years in prison for leaking information to foreigners.

The materials are a battleground in the broader fight between China and the United States over advanced technology, including the semiconductors used for artificial intelligence. Each side is imposing export controls on the components that it produces, while trying to develop supply chains at home or abroad, with trusted allies.

“China has cornered the market for processing and refining of key critical minerals, leaving the U.S. and our allies and partners vulnerable to supply chain shocks and undermining economic and national security,” a White House statement said last month.

Daan De Jonge, a product director for critical minerals at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a London consulting firm, compared the risk of supply disruptions to “the sword of Damocles, hanging over the market, ready to strike at any time.”

For two months in 2010, China banned exports of rare earth metals to Japan during a territorial dispute. But Beijing’s current initiative is far broader.

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Workers at a new factory in Zibo, China, that makes rare earth catalysts for pollution control equipment in gasoline-powered cars.Credit...Keith Bradsher for The New York Times

China’s Ministry of Commerce contends it is taking action to conserve scarce natural resources, discourage weapons proliferation and protect the country’s national security.

Rare earths from China are used in American-made F-35 stealth fighters as well as in wind turbines, electric car motors, camera lenses and the catalytic converters on gasoline-powered cars. Demand for them is expected to grow. The International Energy Agency predicted that clean energy industries like wind turbines and electric cars would need seven times as much rare earths in 2040 as what they needed in 2020.

One example of China’s growing power is dysprosium, a rare earth that sells for over $100 a pound. Previously used mainly as an additive in powerful magnets for electric cars, dysprosium is highly heat resistant. That makes it an increasingly important component of advanced semiconductors.

In the last few years, Nvidia and other computer chip manufacturers have changed the material used in hundreds of tiny electricity management devices, called capacitors, on each chip. The capacitors are now made from ultrapure dysprosium. China’s refineries produce 99.9 percent of the world’s dysprosium, mostly at a single refinery in Wuxi, near Shanghai.

That refinery is one of the last two in China that are still in foreign hands, after the government’s purchase or nationalization of the rest of the industry. The longtime owner of both refineries is a Canadian company, Neo Performance Materials.

Neo recently announced that, by the end of the year, it would sell an 86 percent stake in the Wuxi refinery to Shenghe Resources, a Chinese company that is traded on the Shanghai stock market. Shenghe’s biggest shareholder is China’s Ministry of Land Resources. Neo is closing the other refinery, 400 miles north in Zibo, China, and transferring its equipment and personnel to Shenghe.

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Neo Performance Materials, a Canadian company that specializes in rare earths, recently opened a catalytic converter chemicals factory in Zibo.Credit...Keith Bradsher for The New York Times

Neo’s chief executive, Rahim Suleman, said his company would retain an ability to sell to foreign companies. It has the right to market rare earths to international customers from the Wuxi refinery for five years. In addition, Neo has another refinery in Estonia that processes some rare earths, although not dysprosium. It has built a new factory in Zibo to turn rare earths into catalytic converter chemicals for cars.

China’s ever-stronger reins on rare earth supply chains have accelerated efforts to set up supply chains in other countries.

Solvay, a Belgian company, refines tiny quantities of dysprosium in France and said it planned to increase production. An Australian company, Lynas, said it would start refining dysprosium in Malaysia next year. Work has begun on a refinery in Texas.

But all of these plans face obstacles. Few mines outside China and Myanmar, a restive nation on China’s southwest border, have commercially viable concentrations of dysprosium. Chinese companies have been buying stakes or rights to production in mines being developed in Tanzania, Greenland and Australia. And rare earth refineries often take years to get going.

Producing the ultrapure dysprosium required for the computer chips that run artificial intelligence programs is particularly difficult: It took Neo seven years of trial and error to master the 100-step chemical process at its Wuxi refinery. Solvay, the Belgian company, said its initial increase in dysprosium output early next year would be for magnets, a less demanding application.

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Rare earth concentrates in Australia waiting to be shipped by Lynas to Malaysia in 2019.Credit...Melanie Burton/Reuters

The sole American rare earths mine, in Mountain Pass, Calif., has low concentrations of dysprosium in its ore. But MP Materials, which owns the mine, has a Defense Department contract to upgrade its sophisticated refining equipment so it can extract dysprosium.

“If there were a situation where there were a panic and cost were no issue, we would have a lot of separated dysprosium quickly,” said James Litinsky, the chairman and chief executive of MP Materials.

Countries have been trying to diversify supply chains since 2010, when China imposed a two-month embargo on rare earth shipments to Japan during a territorial dispute. It has proved difficult to compete with Chinese companies, which have lower production costs and have been willing to cut prices and sustain financial losses.

“In a purely commercial sense, it has been hard to justify an investment outside of China even though there is a lot of talk,” said Roderick G. Eggert, a minerals economist at the Colorado School of Mines.

China has also gained an edge through advances in chemistry that allow refiners to extract more rare earths at lower cost. China has 39 universities with programs to train engineers and researchers for the rare earths industry. Universities in the United States and Europe have mostly offered only occasional courses.

Michael Silver, the chairman and chief executive of American Elements, a chemicals manufacturer and distributor based in Los Angeles, said rare earth refineries in China “have solvent extraction systems that are literally a generation ahead of anything outside.”

Li You contributed research.

Keith Bradsher is the Beijing bureau chief for The Times. He previously served as bureau chief in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Detroit and as a Washington correspondent. He has lived and reported in mainland China through the pandemic. More about Keith Bradsher

12. The Man Who Shaped China’s Strongman Rule Has a New Job: Winning Taiwan

For those in Taiwan and the US who are pursuing a superior political warfare strategy in the strategic competition with the PRC, this would appear to be an important person to understand. I also think it is worth considering his American experience and his critique of the US and our political system.

The Man Who Shaped China’s Strongman Rule Has a New Job: Winning Taiwan

Xi Jinping’s top adviser, Wang Huning, is credited with shaping the authoritarianism that steered China’s rise. But can he influence Taiwan?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/world/asia/china-xi-jinping-adviser-taiwan.html

By Chris Buckley

Chris Buckley spoke to over a dozen people familiar with Wang Huning and read many of his papers and books.

Oct. 26, 2024

When Xi Jinping held the first-ever talks in Beijing with a former president of Taiwan, seeking to press the island closer to unification, a bookish-looking official stood out for his ease around China’s leader.

While others treated Mr. Xi with stiff formality, the official, Wang Huning, spoke confidently in his presence and sat next to him during the meeting, said Chiu Kun-hsuan, a member of the delegation that accompanied Ma Ying-jeou, the former Taiwanese president.

The scene gave a glimpse of one of the most important, yet little understood, relationships in China: between Mr. Xi, the country’s most powerful leader in decades, and Mr. Wang, the ruling Communist Party’s most influential ideological adviser in decades.

“He has the top leader’s full trust,” Professor Chiu, an emeritus scholar at National Chengchi University in Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, said of Mr. Wang. “Wang Huning’s influence has been in ideology, but now in China under Xi Jinping, ideology connects everything.”

Given the opaque nature of Chinese politics, the world often fixates on Mr. Xi, who since taking power in 2012 has centralized control and surrounded himself with loyalists, making it hard to know whose views he most values. In his circle, Mr. Wang stands out for rising to the top despite never having led a province or city, and for advising three successive Chinese leaders across three decades — a rare feat of adaptability and survival.

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This photograph released by Chinese state media in April shows Mr. Wang sitting to Mr. Xi’s left during talks in Beijing with Ma Ying-jeou, a former president of Taiwan.Credit...Xie Huanchi/Xinhua, via Associated Press

The New York Times spoke to more than a dozen people who have known Mr. Wang or met him, including during a visit to the United States in the late 1980s, and read dozens of his papers and books. The interviews and writings illuminate how he rose to the apex of power by developing ideas that he put to the service of China’s leaders, with a lasting influence on how the country is ruled.

Mr. Wang is credited with honing the Communist Party doctrines that have guided China’s rise, founded on the conviction that only the unyielding dominance of the party can secure the country’s success in the face of rapid economic change and intensifying competition with Western powers.

More recently, Mr. Xi has entrusted Mr. Wang with handling the fraught political relations with Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing wants to absorb. Taiwanese officials say Mr. Wang has been overseeing efforts to deepen Chinese influence over the island, through selective displays of good will and covert influence activities.

Yet Mr. Wang, 69, is little known to outsiders. A professor turned party theorist, he stopped giving interviews after he began working at the Communist Party headquarters in 1995, cutting off contact with most former colleagues and staying aloof from foreign visitors.

Since 2012, he has been central to distilling Mr. Xi’s vision for China into an ideological program for a superpower that is technologically advanced, unabashedly authoritarian and increasingly fortified against American-led containment.

Mr. Wang “provided the ideological spirit for authoritarianism over the last 30 years,” said Rush Doshi, a former deputy senior director for China on President Biden’s National Security Council who is now at the Council on Foreign Relations and Georgetown University. “He has helped craft the national narrative.”

Winning Over Taiwan

Now Mr. Wang is turning his ideas, political acumen and influence with Mr. Xi to Taiwan. He appears to be sharpening strategies for reaching deeper into Taiwanese society and rolling back its people’s deepening rejection of China, including Taiwan’s cultural links with the mainland.

“He’s also someone who knows how to use both a soft touch and a hard fist,” said Chao Chun-shan, a professor emeritus at Tamkang University in Taiwan, who has been in meetings with Mr. Wang in the early 1990s and twice since last year.

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Mr. Wang, third from right, with other Chinese officials during a visit in 2015 to Everett, Wash.Credit...Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

Mr. Wang has assiduously wooed dozens of members of Taiwan’s opposition Nationalist Party, which favors stronger ties with China, treating them almost as a Taiwanese government in waiting — one that Beijing would rather deal with. He has politely quizzed Nationalist lawmakers: Who has old roots in Taiwan? Who came from families that fled mainland China in 1949? He asked them to describe their concerns, making a point that he was paying close attention, said several members of the delegations.

His overtures to the opposition fit with Beijing’s strategy of isolating Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, and his governing Democratic Progressive Party, which rejects China’s claim of sovereignty over the island.

Behind the scenes, Mr. Wang has overseen Chinese efforts to influence Taiwanese public opinion with online campaigns, which amplify messages that are skeptical of American power, scathing about Mr. Lai and admiring of China, according to two Taiwanese security officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

At the same time, China has hardened its military approach to Taiwan; it recently held exercises encircling the island. It is also using legal measures to intimidate Taiwanese people, like the recently issued rules calling for execution, in extreme cases, for supporters of independence.

Watching state media coverage of China’s military drills near Taiwan this month at a mall in Beijing.Credit...Greg Baker/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Such efforts may appear crude and likely to alienate many Taiwanese, but over time, their chilling effect could make a difference politically, said John Dotson, the deputy director of the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington. “Even if it only moves public opinion by a few points, that can be decisive,” he said.

Mr. Wang may also have considerable influence over China’s plan for unification. Mr. Xi has said Taiwan must accept the “one country, two systems” formula that Beijing used for Hong Kong, but that arrangement is widely rejected in Taiwan. Instead, Chinese officials like Mr. Wang now speak of a “comprehensive plan” for Taiwan, a phrase that allows for adjustments to the formula.

“If his past roles are any guide,” Mr. Doshi said, referring to Mr. Wang, “he’s likely been tasked with figuring out an approach to Taiwan that involves crafting long-term strategy, as well as the ideological framework for unification.”

From Democratic Hopes to ‘Neo-Authoritarianism’

Mr. Wang, like Mr. Xi, is the son of Communist officials and was one of the few Chinese youths chosen to go to university during the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution, a decade of violence and zealotry when students were drilled in Marx, Lenin and Mao.

But as Mr. Wang started graduate school at Fudan University in Shanghai in 1978, many in China were starting to look to Western countries for inspiration. Talk of democracy, suppressed under Mao, crept into classrooms, and Mr. Wang, who specialized in political science, became an avid student of Western political traditions.

“He was quite open and lively,” Chen Kuide, who shared a dormitory room with Mr. Wang at Fudan, said in an interview. “He also wrote contemporary poetry.”

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Mr. Wang, left, at Fudan University in Shanghai in May 1988.Credit...via Hsu Chung-mao

Mr. Wang became fascinated with the “political culture” of democracies: the shared public faith in government that kept countries stable as leaders came and went. A strong web of public values was a key pillar of solid political order, he wrote, often citing American scholars like Samuel P. Huntington and Sidney Verba.

Mr. Wang stayed on at Fudan as a lecturer and joined the Communist Party in 1984. He was never a rebel, but he shared in the hopes, widespread in China in the 1980s, that the party could absorb some democracy.

“In today’s world, democracy has become the goal of political development,” Mr. Wang wrote in a Shanghai newspaper in 1986. “Without a highly democratic political system, there can be no talk of standing tall as a modernized, powerful country among the world’s advanced nations.”

But as the decade progressed, China confronted growing public anger over inflation and corruption. Student protests for democracy broke out in 1986. Even as Mr. Wang continued to praise democracy as a long-term aspiration, he cautioned against rapid political liberalization.

Abrupt political opening could bring upheaval and derail China’s economic takeoff, Mr. Wang wrote, arguing that its leaders could learn from South Korea, Taiwan and other Asian “dragons” that had grown rapidly under authoritarian rulers.

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Shanghai in the early 1990s. Mr. Wang wrote that China’s economic surge and an influx of Western influence required its leaders to reassert control.Credit...Tom Stoddart/Getty Images

“He became more of a realist,” said Mr. Chen, the former roommate, who later worked alongside Mr. Wang. “He had the ways of a politician or political operator.”

Mr. Wang wrote a report saying that China needed a “centralized” model of modernization, not a democratic one, to loosen the state’s hold on the economy — which would cause a painful surge in prices for food and other necessities — while keeping a lid on instability.

The report circulated among policymakers in Beijing, according to a memoir by Wei Chengsi, an official in Shanghai who had commissioned it, and it became a seed for “neo-authoritarianism,” a school of thought arguing that China needed a strongman leader.

“His support for a strong central government and central leader was obvious,” said Ming Xia, a former student and colleague of Mr. Wang at Fudan University.

American Lessons

In 1988, Mr. Wang began a six-month visit to the United States, his first immersion in the superpower that China was coming to both admire and fear.

“He was deeply struck by how developed the United States was,” Hsu Chang-mao, a journalist from Taiwan who got to know Mr. Wang at that time, said in an interview. “After he returned, he dressed more attractively and stylishly; you could see that he’d been influenced by the American sense of fashion.”

But Mr. Wang’s travels across America, as a visiting scholar at the University of Iowa and other campuses, also seemed to deepen his view that Western-style democracy had flaws and could not be easily copied in China.

The United States lacked the social discipline and cohesion of Japan, Mr. Wang wrote in “America Against America,” a 1991 book about his visit. He was repulsed by a camp for homeless people in Berkeley, which he described as dirty. He followed the 1988 presidential race and concluded that voters ultimately had limited say in government.

His American sojourn appeared to reinforce his belief that a country had to instill the correct attitudes in its citizens, including respect for authority and tradition, or disorder would weaken it from within. Mr. Wang approvingly cited Allan Bloom, a political theorist whose book denouncing liberal cultural trends, “The Closing of the American Mind,” was a best seller at that time.

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Demonstrators in Shanghai called for more democracy in May 1989, weeks before the bloody nationwide crackdown on the protest movement.Credit...Mark Avery/Associated Press

After Mr. Wang returned to China in 1989, his skepticism of democratization deepened. That spring, student-led pro-democracy demonstrators occupied Tiananmen Square in Beijing. The Chinese military crushed the movement on June 4 with tanks and troops, killing hundreds, if not thousands, in the capital and across the country.

In the aftermath, Mr. Wang warned that the party still faced deeper threats. China’s leaders, he wrote, needed a “comprehensive overhaul of the entire system of social control” to tame the effects of economic growth, especially corruption, as well as an influx of Western investment and cultural influence.

Mr. Wang urged leaders in Beijing to reassert their control over revenues and state-owned companies. Their grip on economic resources had weakened in the previous decade, and revenue-rich local officials sometimes chafed at orders from Beijing, he warned.

He argued that as China opened to the outside world and the party retreated from directing people’s lives, leaders needed new ways to retain their loyalty. The new challenges, he wrote in 1992, “demand that China’s system of social control respond more firmly, flexibly and vigorously.” He advised Beijing to develop new ways to monitor and shape people’s values.

“He was really writing about what they were trying to figure out: how do you maintain political order through very fundamental social and economic change?” said Timothy Cheek, a historian of the Chinese Communist Party at the University of British Columbia.

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Mr. Wang, fourth from right, with the Chinese leader Jiang Zemin, seventh from right, in a North Korean state media photo from Mr. Jiang’s visit to Pyongyang in September 2001.Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Associated Press

In 1995, Mr. Wang was plucked from academia by Jiang Zemin, the former Shanghai party secretary who had become China’s leader in 1989. He joined the party’s Central Policy Research Office and was later credited with helping shape Mr. Jiang’s “Three Represents” concept, a policy for bringing private entrepreneurs into the party’s embrace.

After Mr. Jiang stepped down, Mr. Wang remained a top adviser to the next Chinese leader, Hu Jintao. When Mr. Xi came to power in 2012, he retained Mr. Wang.

The Man Behind ‘Xi Jinping Thought’

Mr. Wang’s continuing close access to Mr. Xi suggests that he remained an influential source of advice as the Chinese leader grappled with a pandemic, economic troubles and growing antagonism with Western governments.

Experts credit Mr. Wang with a big role in shaping Mr. Xi’s ideas into an official credo — Xi Jinping Thought — focused on China’s resurgence as a great power. To combat the dangers he sees to party rule, Mr. Xi has demanded ideological conformity, restricted Western cultural influences, expanded censorship and sought to silence even mild dissent.

Mr. Wang became office director for a commission on policy reform, which has pushed Mr. Xi’s ideas of state-steered growth, and he continues to shape major policy documents. He defended China’s tight control over the internet before an audience of multinational executives. He accompanied Mr. Xi on trips abroad, including summits with American presidents.

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Mr. Wang with Mr. Xi in March at the National People’s Congress in Beijing.Credit...Andres Martinez Casares/EPA, via Shutterstock

Mr. Wang gained “a real policy-shaping role, not just as an ideologue,” said Matthew D. Johnson, a research director at Garnaut Global, a consultancy, who has studied Mr. Wang. “I don’t think he’s a one-trick pony.”

In 2017, Mr. Xi rewarded Mr. Wang by promoting him to the Politburo Standing Committee — the top tier of party power. And Mr. Xi kept him on the committee for a second term in 2022, as others stepped aside.

During a party congress in 2022, Mr. Wang’s standing with Mr. Xi played out in front of television cameras. The tightly choreographed proceedings were briefly interrupted when Mr. Hu, the retired leader, apparently agitated and confused, seemed to resist being led out by an usher.

When Li Zhanshu, a senior official, tried to help Mr. Hu, Mr. Wang tugged at Mr. Li’s suit and whispered to him, apparently urging him to sit down. In theory, Mr. Li had a higher rank, but that didn’t deter Mr. Wang.

Amy Chang Chien contributed reporting.

Chris Buckley, the chief China correspondent for The Times, reports on China and Taiwan from Taipei, focused on politics, social change and security and military issues. More about Chris Buckley

13. Elon Musk, enemy of ‘open borders,’ launched his career working illegally

A hit job, sure. But you have to love the irony. Is this an indirect attack on Trump? Is this a message from the rank and file journalists to Bezos from not allowing the WAPOST to make a political endorsement? Or does Bezos approve of this because it is an attack on his archrival, Musk? A question is that if the allegations are founded in fact would they be grounds for deportation under the assumed new Trump deportation rules? Or would he simply be pardoned.

Elon Musk, enemy of ‘open borders,’ launched his career working illegally

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/26/elon-musk-immigration-status/

Investors in Musk’s first company worried about “our founder being deported” and gave him a deadline for obtaining a work visa.

Elon Musk is seen at his desk March 19, 2004, in El Segundo, California. (Paul Harris/Getty Images)

By Maria Sacchetti, Faiz Siddiqui and Nick Miroff

October 26, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

PALO ALTO, Calif. — Long before he became one of Donald Trump’s biggest donors and campaign surrogates, South African-born Elon Musk worked illegally in the United States as he launched his entrepreneurial career after ditching a graduate studies program in California, according to former business associates, court records and company documents obtained by The Washington Post.

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Musk in recent months has amplified the Republican presidential candidate’s claims that “open borders” and undocumented immigrants are destroying America, broadcasting those views to more than 200 million followers on the site formerly known as Twitter, which Musk bought in 2022 and later renamed X.

What Musk has not publicly disclosed is that he did not have the legal right to work while building the company that became Zip2, which sold for about $300 million in 1999. It was Musk’s steppingstone to Tesla and the other ventures that have made him the world’s wealthiest person — and arguably America’s most successful immigrant.

Musk and his brother, Kimbal, have often described their immigrant journey in romantic terms, as a time of personal austerity, undeterred ambition and a willingness to flout conventions. Musk arrived in Palo Alto in 1995 for a graduate degree program at Stanford University but never enrolled in courses, working instead on his start-up.

Leaving school left Musk without a legal basis to remain in the United States, according to legal experts.

Foreign students cannot drop out of school to build a company, even if they are not immediately getting paid, said Leon Fresco, a former Justice Department immigration litigator.

“If you do anything that helps to facilitate revenue creation, such as design code or try to make sales in furtherance of revenue creation, then you’re in trouble,” Fresco said.

Musk’s freewheeling business approach soon conflicted with Zip2’s hopes of becoming a public company or entering a high-profile merger, which would have subjected it to scrutiny by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, according to former associates.

When the venture capital firm Mohr Davidow Ventures poured $3 million into Musk’s company in 1996, the funding agreement — a copy of which was obtained by The Post — stated that the Musk brothers and an associate had 45 days to obtain legal work status. Otherwise, the firm could reclaim its investment.

“Their immigration status was not what it should be for them to be legally employed running a company in the U.S.,” said Derek Proudian, a Zip2 board member at the time who later became chief executive. Investors agreed, Proudian said: “We don’t want our founder being deported.”

Another large shareholder at the time, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said a minor problem drew additional attention to the Musk brothers’ unresolved immigration issues. Musk told co-workers he was in the country on a student visa, according to six former associates and Zip2 shareholders.

“We want to take care of this long before there’s anything that could screw up” the company’s path to an initial public offering, Proudian recalled.

In Elon Musk’s public retelling of his immigration story, he has never acknowledged having worked without proper legal status. In 2013, he joked about being in a “gray area” early in his career. And in 2020, Musk said he had a “student-work visa” after deferring his studies at Stanford.

“I was legally there, but I was meant to be doing student work,” he said in a 2020 podcast. “I was allowed to do work sort of supporting whatever.”

Musk, his attorney Alex Spiro and the manager of Musk’s family office did not respond to emailed requests for comment. U.S. immigration records generally are not open to the public, making it difficult to independently confirm a person’s legal status.

In 2005, Musk acknowledged in a late-night email that he did not have authorization to be in the United States when he founded Zip2. The email, from Musk to Tesla co-founders Martin Eberhard and JB Straubel, was submitted as evidence in a long-since-closed California defamation lawsuit and said he applied to Stanford so he could remain in the United States legally.

“Actually, I didn’t really care much for the degree, but I had no money for a lab and no legal right to stay in the country, so that seemed like a good way to solve both issues,” Musk wrote. “Then the internet came along, which seemed like a much surer bet.”

Musk never enrolled at Stanford. In a May 2009 deposition, he said he called the department chair two days after the start of the semester to say he wasn’t going to attend. In the same deposition, he said he began working at Zip2 — originally called Global Link Information Network — in August or September 1995.

Upon not enrolling, Musk would have had to leave the country, according to legal experts and immigration laws at the time. He would not have been allowed to work.

While overstaying a student visa is somewhat common and officials have at times turned a blind eye to it, it remains illegal.

The revelation that Musk lacked the legal right to work in the United States stands at odds with his recent focus on undocumented immigrants and U.S. border security, among the issues that have led him to spend more than $100 million helping Trump return to the White House. If Trump wins on Nov. 5, both men have said Musk could have a high-profile role in his administration.

On X, Musk has become an avid booster of anti-immigrant rhetoric, falsely accusing Vice President Kamala Harris and other Democrats of “importing voters.” Undocumented immigrants are legally barred from voting. In February, he wrote that “illegals in America can get … insurance, driver’s licenses.”

Musk would have been required to have both to drive a vehicle, which associates attested he frequently did during the time he lacked a legal work permit.

U.S. immigration regulations for foreign students were more lax in the 1990s, before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks prompted an overhaul, according to immigration law experts. Musk, who obtained Canadian citizenship through his mother, would not have needed a visa from the State Department to study at a U.S. university. He could simply show U.S. university enrollment documents to U.S. border officers and enter the United States with student status, legal experts said.

Foreign students enrolled in U.S. degree programs may be authorized to work part time and for limited periods to complete their degree requirements. Adam Cohen, author of “The Academic Immigration Handbook” and an attorney who specializes in employment visas, said Musk could obtain work authorization as a student, but that would have required him to be engaged in a full course of study at Stanford.

Otherwise, “that would have been a violation,” Cohen said. If he didn’t go to school, “he wasn’t maintaining his status.”

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Ira Kurzban, an immigration law expert and the author of a legal sourcebook used widely by attorneys and judges, agreed.

Kurzban said the brothers’ subsequent applications for work visas and to become U.S. permanent residents and naturalized citizens would have asked whether they worked in the United States without authorization. “If you tell them you worked illegally in the U.S., it’s highly unlikely you’d get approved,” Kurzban said.

Kimbal Musk leaves the stage after speaking at a blockchain event on Feb. 18, 2022, in Denver. (Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images)

Kimbal Musk has repeatedly acknowledged working in the United States without legal status — describing his experience as evidence of a dysfunctional U.S. system that blocks talented foreigners. In a 2013 onstage interview alongside his brother, he said they were sleeping in the office and showering at the YMCA when they joined the dot-com gold rush.

Then investors began offering them huge sums of money and buying them cars, he said, only to find out that the brothers had no legal permission to work in the United States.

“In fact, when they did fund us, they realized that we were illegal immigrants,” Kimbal said in the 2013 interview.

“Well,” Elon said.

“Yes, we were,” Kimbal said.

“I’d say it was a gray area,” Elon replied, to audience laughter.

“We were illegal immigrants,” Kimbal said flatly.

Kimbal has also said he misled U.S. federal agents to reenter the United States for a crucial investor meeting after visiting his mother in Canada. When U.S. officers searching his luggage at the airport discovered his business cards and California address, they realized he was traveling for work — without authorization.

After they turned him away, he said, he enlisted a friend to drive him over the border, telling officers they were headed to see David Letterman’s show. Officers waved them through and Kimbal made it to the meeting.

“That’s fraud on entry,” said Kurzban, the immigration expert. “That would make him inadmissible and permanently barred from the United States,” he said, unless the penalties were waived.

Kimbal Musk did not respond to requests for comment.

Last month, Elon Musk called himself “extremely pro immigrant, being one myself. However, just as when hiring for a company, we should confirm that anyone allowed into the country is talented, hardworking and ethical.”

But Musk appeared to have benefited from his backers’ initial inattention to his own status, according to former business associates.

“Perhaps naively we never examined whether he was a legal citizen,” said one key investor in Musk’s first company, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue. “He had a burning desire to be successful. We were investing in him. … We felt that he was really driven.”

Musk’s fortune has its roots in this period, which fueled his rise in Silicon Valley and provided seed funding for later ventures, including X.com, a predecessor to PayPal. (Musk later revived the name when he bought Twitter.) Musk was chief executive of PayPal until September 2000, when board members ousted him. Two years later, eBay acquired PayPal, earning Musk roughly $176 million, which he used to make later bets on Tesla and SpaceX.

PayPal CEO Peter Thiel, left, and founder Elon Musk at its corporate headquarters in Palo Alto, California, in 2000. (Paul Sakuma/AP)

A 2023 authorized biography by Walter Isaacson asserted that the Musks had needed visas and investors at Mohr Davidow Ventures lined them up with an attorney to secure them, but it included few further details. Biographer Ashlee Vance also reported that the investment firm got the brothers visas. Neither reported that Musk had been working without authorization.

Mohr Davidow Ventures did not respond to a request for comment.

Documents obtained by The Post show that Zip2’s executives met with immigration attorney Jocelyne Lew on Feb. 21, 1996, to discuss potential visa pathways for the Musk brothers and another Canadian co-founder. Lew advised the men to downplay their leadership roles with the company and scrub their résumés of U.S. addresses that might suggest they were already living and working in the United States, the documents show.

Lew encouraged Musk to seek another student visa from the University of Pennsylvania, where he had studied as an undergraduate, the documents show. She also directed him to obtain passport-size photos that would allow him to apply to the U.S. “visa lottery,” according to the files.

Lew did not respond to requests for comment.

Proudian, the former Zip2 board member and investor, said the board worried that the founders’ lack of legal immigration status would have to be disclosed in an SEC filing if the company were to go public. He recalled the Musks’ work authorizations coming through around 1997.

A person who joined Zip2’s human resources department in 1997 remembers processing work visas for the Musks and other family members under a category available to Canadians under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Legal experts said Elon Musk also might have violated the law by persuading his brother to come run the company. A 1986 federal law made it a crime to knowingly hire someone who does not have work authorization. Musk said in 2003 and 2009 that he “convinced” Kimbal to come from Canada to work for his company.

Records filed with the California secretary of state show Elon Musk was the registered agent for Global Link Information Network when it incorporated in November 1995. On Feb. 26, 1996, the company listed Kimbal as president and CEO and Elon as secretary.

“I tried to get a visa, but there’s just no visa you can get to do a start-up,” Kimbal said in a 2021 interview. “I was definitely illegal.”

Siddiqui and Miroff reported from Washington.

877

Comments

By Maria Sacchetti

Maria Sacchetti covers immigration for the Washington Post, including U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the court system. She previously reported for the Boston Globe, where her work led to the release of several immigrants from jail. She lived for several years in Latin America and is fluent in Spanish.follow on X @mariasacchetti

By Faiz Siddiqui

Faiz Siddiqui is a technology reporter with The Washington Post's Business Desk covering companies such as Tesla and Twitter. His area of coverage has also included ride-hailing and the race to build autonomous cars. Prior to that, he covered the D.C. Metro and local transportation scene.follow on X @faizsays

By Nick Miroff

Nick Miroff covers the Department of Homeland Security for The Washington Post, with a focus on immigration enforcement and the southern border. He was a Post foreign correspondent in Latin America from 2010 to 2017, and has been a staff writer since 2006.follow on X @NickMiroff

14. Behind the scenes of Israeli attack: Over 100 aircraft and a 2,000 km journey to Iran

The importance of air power cannot be overestimated.

Behind the scenes of Israeli attack: Over 100 aircraft and a 2,000 km journey to Iran

The IDF confirmed the operation focused strictly on military targets, steering clear of nuclear and oil facilities to prevent wider conflict escalation.

By AMIR BOHBOT

OCTOBER 26, 2024 04:30

Updated: OCTOBER 26, 2024 11:40

Jerusalem Post

Over 100 planes were involved in the attack on Iran on Saturday, including the cutting-edge F-35.

Israel’s preliminary strike on radar targets in Syria was aimed at “blinding” Iran’s capabilities, quickly escalating into an offensive targeting Tehran and Karaj, Iran’s capital and another strategic location.

The IDF confirmed the operation focused strictly on military targets, steering clear of nuclear and oil facilities to prevent wider conflict escalation. High alert remains as Israel anticipates potential retaliation, not only from Iran.

This large-scale assault involved over 100 aircraft, including F-35 “Adir” stealth fighters, traveling approximately 2,000 kilometers. According to foreign reports, strikes focused on Tehran and Karaj, with the IDF stating that each wave targeted military sites exclusively, mitigating further conflict risks.

An operation of this scope likely began with initial waves attacking radar and air defense systems, clearing the path for subsequent strikes on military bases. Earlier, a coordinated strike in Syria neutralized similar threats, preventing Iran from building situational awareness of Israel’s plans.

IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, is currently leading the operation in Iran from the Air Force bunker at the Kirya, alongside Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, the Air Force Commander, October, 26, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)

Using heavy munitions, long-distance strikes such as these require significant refueling capabilities and the 669 Rescue Unit on high alert.

The IDF now closely monitors potential responses from Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, preparing for a spectrum of possible retaliatory actions.

Leading the operation

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi remain stationed at the Kirya base in Tel Aviv. A senior Israeli official reported that the Security Cabinet authorized the strike in a phone conference last night.

“The IDF is fully prepared for both offensive and defensive maneuvers, monitoring Iran and its proxies closely,” said IDF Spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari. He confirmed no changes in Home Front Command guidelines for now. “We urge continued vigilance and adherence to Home Front Command instructions, with updates to follow immediately on any changes.”

The White House backed Israel’s actions, stating, “Israel’s precise strikes on Iranian military targets align with its right to self-defense and respond to the Iranian missile attack on October 1.” US officials verified that Israel provided notice of the timing a few hours before the operation.

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“President Biden was briefed on the Israeli strike in Iran and is closely monitoring developments,” a senior US official said.

Jerusalem Post

15. The History of Irregular Warfare Across the World

Conclusion

Irregular warfare has been a steady part of human conflict since ancient times. It has evolved as society, technology, and the nature of power have changed. From ancient tribes using guerrilla tactics to today's insurgencies and hybrid warfare, irregular warfare has proven its staying power as a means for weaker forces to challenge stronger opponents. The history of irregular warfare shows that it is not a lesser form of conflict but an essential part of the broader spectrum of war. It requires adaptability, knowledge of the terrain, and often the local population's support. Whether in ancient Mesopotamia, the jungles of Vietnam, or the urban landscapes of Syria and Ukraine, irregular warfare has consistently shaped the outcomes of conflicts and remains a vital component of global military history.

The History of Irregular Warfare Across the World

Sal Artiaga

Irregular Warfare & Latin America National Security Commentator

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/history-irregular-warfare-across-world-sal-artiaga-9wksc/

October 26, 2024

Irregular warfare has shaped conflicts throughout history. This type of warfare operates outside the formal structures of conventional armies and battlefields. It impacts tactics like guerrilla warfare, sabotage, subversion, and other methods to exploit the weaknesses of stronger opponents. The history of irregular warfare goes back thousands of years, changing with societies and technology. Understanding its history helps us see how power dynamics have changed, often determined by unconventional forces challenging dominant powers.

Earliest Written Instances

Old writings about conflicts in Mesopotamia around 2000 BCE show the first recorded case of irregular warfare. Little, well-organized teams of fighters carried out surprise attacks and quick strikes against bigger regular armies. These unusual battle methods allowed weaker groups to stand up to strong empires. Take the Amorite tribes, for example. They used hit-and-run tactics to weaken the central control of the Akkadian Empire.

The idea of asymmetric resistance existed in ancient China, too. In The Art of War, around the 5th century BCE, Sun Tzu stressed the importance of deception, speed, and avoiding the enemy's strengths. His ideas set the stage for guerrilla tactics that fighters have used in wars for hundreds of years.

Roman Empire and Insurgencies

As the Roman Empire grew, conquered people often fought back using unconventional methods. Roman soldiers, who trained and had gear for regular fights, frequently had a hard time against these different kinds of enemies. Take the Battle of the Teutoburger Forest in 9 CE, for instance. The Germanic tribes, with Arminius at the helm, showed textbook guerrilla war tactics. They used what they knew about the land to surprise and attack Roman legions, which led to a huge loss for Rome.

Another striking instance is the Jewish Zealots' resistance to Roman control in the 1st century CE. The Zealots employed guerrilla strategies, attacking Roman supply routes and launching surprise assaults. Their actions led to the First Jewish-Roman War (66-73 CE), which showed how unconventional warfare could test the strength of a powerful empire even if complete success was out of reach.

Medieval Guerrilla Warfare

During the Middle Ages, irregular warfare influenced many conflicts. Genghis Khan's Mongols used a mix of normal and unusual battle techniques. These included quick horse attacks, fake retreats, and mind games to take over huge areas. They didn't just win because they were strong in normal fights. They also used odd plans to puzzle and scare their enemies.

English archers in the Hundred Years' War (1337-1453) also used irregular fighting methods. They disrupted the heavily armored French knights with ambushes and guerrilla-style engagements, demonstrating the effectiveness of adapting tactics to exploit enemy weaknesses.

In Spain, guerrilla warfare played a key role during the Reconquista and later in the fight against Napoleon (1808-1814) in the Peninsular War. Spanish fighters called guerrilleros, struck French supply lines, surprised troops, and used the landscape to their advantage against Napoleon's forces. This struggle even coined the term "guerrilla," which means "little war."

Colonial and Revolutionary Wars

Irregular warfare had a big impact on many colonial and revolutionary fights. In the American Revolutionary War (1775-1783), colonial militias depended on unconventional battle methods. Leaders like Francis Marion, known as the "Swamp Fox," used hit-and-run attacks to create problems for British soldiers by blocking their supplies and disrupting their messages. These out-of-the-ordinary approaches by smaller, less organized groups helped balance things against the British Army.

In Latin America, the 1800s began with fights against Spanish control that used irregular battle methods. Leaders like Simón Bolívar and José de San Martín used quick attack and retreat plans to outwit Spanish soldiers. These military moves proved how well non-traditional warfare worked to defeat a more established colonial force, which had a big impact on how wars were fought in the region.

20th Century: World Wars and Decolonization

The 20th century greatly impacted how irregular warfare changed during the world wars and when countries were gaining independence afterward. During World War II, resistance groups in countries like France, Yugoslavia, and Poland used guerrilla tactics to fight Nazi control. The French Resistance had a big impact on the war effort. They gathered intel, messed up supply lines, and helped the Allies invade Normandy in 1944.

In Asia, the Viet Minh fought Japanese occupation in World War II with guerrilla tactics. They later used these same methods against French colonial forces in the First Indochina War (1946-1954). Ho Chi Minh's forces showed how strong a mix of public support and guerrilla warfare could be. This set the stage for the Vietnam War (1955-1975). In this conflict, the Viet Cong put irregular tactics to good use against U.S. troops. Vietnam's thick jungles created the ideal setting for ambushes, traps, and quick attacks, making it challenging for a regular army to gain an edge.

The fight for independence in Africa often involved guerrilla warfare. The National Liberation Front (FLN) fought against French rule from 1954 to 1962 in Algeria. The FLN used urban guerrilla tactics, like bombings and ambushes, which pushed France into a costly war it couldn't keep up. Kenyan Mau Mau fighters used similar methods against British authorities. These examples show how guerrilla warfare could challenge and end colonial control.

Late 20th Century to Present

In the late 20th century, irregular warfare became common in many conflicts. The Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989) showed how a traditional military struggles against a determined guerrilla force. The Afghan Mujahideen, with help from the United States and other countries, used their knowledge of the mountain landscape to carry out effective ambushes and quick attacks against Soviet forces. The Soviets had a hard time fighting back against these methods, which ultimately led them to leave and lose their power in Afghanistan.

The Cold War's conclusion didn't stop irregular warfare. New fights broke out often with non-state groups involved. In Colombia, the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) fought the government for years using guerrilla methods. Their tactics included surprise attacks, taking hostages, and ruling rural areas. This helped FARC keep power until they made peace in 2016.

Terrorism as a type of irregular warfare gained traction in the late 1900s and early 2000s. Groups like Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and ISIS used unconventional tactics employing asymmetric warfare to test both regional and global powers. The uprisings in Iraq and Afghanistan after 2001 demonstrated how non-state players could use irregular methods to take on advanced conventional forces. These conflicts became known for roadside explosives, ambushes, and strikes on supply lines.

Most Recent Examples

In the last few years, irregular warfare has kept changing—the fight in Ukraine, which began in 2014, mixed standard and non-standard battle methods. Rebels who backed Russia in East Ukraine used hit-and-run attacks against Ukraine's army. They fought in cities, set traps, and spread fake news to upset the area. Russia's use of unusual groups, fake news, and computer attacks makes it hard to tell the difference between regular and irregular war.

The Syrian Civil War offers a fresh example of irregular warfare. In this conflict different groups like ISIS Kurdish factions, and other militias used guerrilla methods to battle government troops and each other. This war showed how irregular warfare stays relevant in today's fights through shifting alliances, the use of homemade bombs, and city combat.

The current fight between Israel and Palestinian groups such as Hamas also shows the use of irregular tactics. Hamas has built tunnel systems, launched rockets, and carried out quick attacks against Israeli forces. Because of the big gap in military strength, these groups rely on irregular methods to stand up to a much stronger regular army.

Conclusion

Sal Artiaga

Irregular Warfare & Latin America National Security Commentator

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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