Quotes of the Day:
“History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unloved, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again.”
- Maya Angelou, American poet, author
“There is frequently more to relearned from the unexpected questions of a child than the discourses of men..”
-John Locke, English philosopher, physician
"One doesn't recognize in one's life the really important moments — not until it's too late."
- Agatha Christie
1. North Korean missile tests signal return to brinkmanship
2. Test-fire of Tactical Guided Missiles Held (north Korean statement)
3. ‘Tactical guided missiles’ now under production, N. Korea says
4. N. Korea’s freight train service across border will depend on handling capacity of Uiju’s quarantine facility
5. `Chinese Foreign Ministry on rail link trade resumption- Has China-North Korea trade via rail resumed, and what could it mean?
6. Chun In-bum on Seoul’s Security Policy Amid the Mounting North Korean Missile Threat
7. After Resuming Trade With China, North Korea Fires Another 2 Ballistic Missiles
8. US court awards Warmbier family US$240,000 seized from North Korea
9. U.S. policy of engaging with North Korea is turning out to be a mistake, analyst says
10. UN chief calls for diplomatic talks toward denuclearization of Korean Peninsula
1. North Korean missile tests signal return to brinkmanship
Excerpt:
Park said North Korea’s push to develop and mass-produce such missiles is a key part of its efforts to cement its status as a nuclear power. Its pressure campaign is not only aimed at winning economic benefits but also to negotiate with Washington from a position of power and convert the nuclear diplomacy into talks for mutual arms reduction, he said.
I will say again, Kim Jong-un is executing a political warfare strategy while simultaneously developing capabilities to support his warfighting campaign plan. The two lines of effort are mutually supporting and reinforcing.
We should also recall that due to our actions (or lack of actions) during the previous administration, the red line or the "brink" is now nuclear and ICBM tests. Kim has not yet gotten to the new "brink."
North Korean missile tests signal return to brinkmanship | AP News
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · January 18, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Grappling with pandemic difficulties and U.S.-led sanctions over his nuclear ambitions, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could be reviving his 2017 playbook of nuclear and missile brinkmanship to wrest concessions from Washington and his neighbors.
North Korea’s short-range missile launches on Monday were its fourth round of missile tests this month and signaled a refusal to be ignored by the Biden administration, which has focused more on confronting bigger adversaries such as China and Russia.
The tests could also reflect a growing urgency in its need for outside relief after its economy decayed further under the severe sanctions and two years of pandemic border closures, experts say.
The two missiles launched Monday near the capital, Pyongyang, followed a resumption of railroad freight traffic with China that had been suspended over pandemic concerns, in what is likely an attempt to revive the desperate economy.
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Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said Monday that trade between Dandong in China and Sinuiju in North Korea will be maintained while pandemic controls stay in place.
While North Korea is likely to continue showcasing its weapons in the coming weeks, it could keep things relatively quiet before the opening of the February Winter Olympics in China, its main ally and economic lifeline, launching known short-range missiles rather than more provocative systems.
But it could dramatically raise the ante once the Beijing Games end. Du Hyeogn Cha, an analyst at Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said Kim could resume testing nuclear explosives and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Kim suspended nuclear and ICBM tests in 2018 while engaging in talks with former U.S. President Donald Trump. But the diplomacy remains derailed since their second summit in 2019, when the Americans rejected North Korea’s demand for major sanctions relief in exchange for a partial surrender of its nuclear capabilities.
North Korea in recent months has ramped up tests of short-range missiles designed to defeat missile defenses in the region.
Its leaders may think it needs to stage more provocative tests to move the needle with the Biden administration, which has offered open-ended talks but has shown no willingness to ease sanctions unless Kim takes real steps to abandon his nuclear weapons program.
It’s unclear whether nuclear or ICBM tests would extract a compromise from Washington, which is more likely to respond with further sanctions and military pressure, possibly including a resumption of major military drills with South Korea, Cha said.
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Nam Sung-wook, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Korea University, said a nuclear test is more likely than an ICBM test because it would send a greater level of shock. The North may use that test to claim it has acquired an ability to produce a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on its purported hypersonic missile, which it first tested in September.
Nam said North Korea would time the test to maximize its political effect, with South Korean presidential elections scheduled in March and President Joe Biden facing crucial midterm elections in November. North Korea conducted its sixth and last test of a nuclear explosive device in September 2017.
“In Pyongyang’s mind, there is no other way to grab Washington’s attention than a major provocation,” Nam said.
North Korea strengthened efforts to expand its weapons capabilities following Kim’s 2021 announcement of a new five-year plan to develop his military forces, with an ambitious wish list that included hypersonic missiles, solid-fuel ICBMs, spy satellites and submarine-launched nuclear missiles.
However, the frequency of tests since then exceeds usual technological timelines and apparently reflects Kim’s desire to break out of the country’s current deepening economic problems and international isolation — what appears to be the toughest period of his decade-long rule.
“Externally, North Korea is trying to make a statement that it will continue to go its own way regardless of sanctions. Internally, the leadership is trying to tell its people that the supreme leader’s promises will be realized no matter what, whether they be weapons development or overcoming sanctions through a self-reliant economy,” Cha said.
“But they are proceeding with the tests at a very fast pace, and this reveals a sense of alarm within Pyongyang’s leadership, that they must get something done with the United States in 2022 or there could be trouble.”
According to South Korean estimates, North Korea’s trade with China shrank by about 80% in 2020 before plunging again by two-thirds in the first nine months of 2021. The contraction in 2020 was the biggest since 1997 as grain production dropped to the lowest level since Kim took power in 2011.
Describing its anti-coronavirus campaign as a matter of “national existence,” North Korea has severely restricted cross-border traffic and trade for the past two years and is even believed to have ordered troops to shoot on sight any trespassers who cross its borders.
Experts say a major COVID-19 outbreak would have devastating consequences because of North Korea’s poor health care system, and could even trigger instability.
Its resumption of the train route with China indicates how hard it has become for its leadership to withstand the economic strain caused by border closures, said Park Won Gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Seoul’s Ewha Womans University.
For decades, North Korea has mastered the art of brinkmanship, manufacturing diplomatic crises with weapons tests and threats before offering negotiations aimed at extracting concessions. Kim sped up the process in 2017 with a highly provocative run of nuclear and ICBM tests while exchanging threats of nuclear annihilation with Trump before beginning their diplomacy in 2018.
North Korea began 2022 with what it claimed were two successful tests of a hypersonic missile, which Kim said would significantly enhance his “war deterrent.” After the Biden administration imposed new sanctions over those launches, North Korea vowed stronger and more explicit action and fired two missiles from a train on Friday.
State media photos of Monday’s launch suggest the North tested a weapon that looks similar in appearance with the U.S. MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System. The missiles, which North Korea first tested in 2019, are part of the country’s expanding short-range weaponry designed to be maneuverable and fly at low altitudes, which potentially improves their chances of evading missile defense systems in South Korea and Japan.
Park said North Korea’s push to develop and mass-produce such missiles is a key part of its efforts to cement its status as a nuclear power. Its pressure campaign is not only aimed at winning economic benefits but also to negotiate with Washington from a position of power and convert the nuclear diplomacy into talks for mutual arms reduction, he said.
___
Kim Tong-hyung has covered the Koreas for The Associated Press since 2014.
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · January 18, 2022
2. Test-fire of Tactical Guided Missiles Held (north Korean statement)
"under production" "being produced and deployed"
Does this mean the weapons are in production for fielding to operational units? Or is this just a translation issue or part of the Propaganda and Agitation department's influence campaign to make us believe they are producing and fielding these systems.
Do our intelligence agencies have any indications that these systems are in production and are operational?
Test-fire of Tactical Guided Missiles Held
Pyongyang, January 18 (KCNA) -- Test-fire of tactical guided missiles was conducted on Monday under a plan of the Academy of Defence Science, the Second Economy Commission and other institutions concerned.
The test-fire was aimed to selectively evaluate tactical guided missiles being produced and deployed and to verify the accuracy of the weapon system.
The two tactical guided missiles launched in the western area of the DPRK precisely hit an island target in the East Sea of Korea.
The Academy of Defence Science confirmed the accuracy, security and efficiency of the operation of the weapon system under production. -0-
3. ‘Tactical guided missiles’ now under production, N. Korea says
Political warfare and the full spectrum of war fighting capabilities.
‘Tactical guided missiles’ now under production, N. Korea says
KN-24 missile could potentially carry miniaturized nuclear warheads
Published : Jan 18, 2022 - 14:34 Updated : Jan 18, 2022 - 18:26
The photo, released by North Korea`s official Korean Central News Agency on Jan. 18, 2022, shows what the North claims to be a tactical guided missile being launched the previous day. (Yonhap)
North Korea on Monday test-fired a pair of “tactical guided missiles” for the first time in around two years, Pyongyang’s state media reported the following day, saying it did so to confirm the accuracy and efficiency of the weapon system “under production.”
The report suggested that North Korea test-fired KN-24 short-range ballistic missiles, which look similar to the US MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS.
The KN-24 single-stage solid-propellant missile is a tactical system with a mobile launcher. The KN-24 reportedly performs “pull-up maneuvers” in flight to avoid interception and is capable of carrying out a precision strike with its guidance system and in-flight maneuverability.
Monday’s test-firing aimed to “selectively evaluate tactical guided missiles being produced and deployed and to verify the accuracy of the weapon system,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported in an English-language dispatch.
KCNA said the “two tactical guided missiles launched in the western area of the DPRK precisely hit an island target in the East Sea,” without further details. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is the North’s formal name.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff on Monday said the two missiles were fired from the Sunan airfield in Pyongyang, which was last used as a launch site in September 2017.
The missiles traveled around 380 kilometers from the airfield to the small Alseom, an uninhabited island off the country’s east coast. The travel distance is approximately equidistant from the launch site to the South Korean Army, Navy and Air Force Headquarters in Gyeryong, South Chungcheong Province.
The North Korean media notably said the Academy of Defense Science “confirmed the accuracy, security and efficiency of the operation of the weapon system under production.”
But missile analysts say it is hard to verify the scale of missile production without additional information including production rates for solid-fuel missiles.
Two years since last test of KN-24
“As to why they choose to test this system, North Korea needs to continue to test ‘relatively new’ missile systems to ensure they perform as designed, which does require continued testing,” David Schmerler, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told The Korea Herald.
Since 2019, North Korea has test-fired a newly developed triple set of new weapons systems, which consist of the KN-23 and KN-24 short-range ballistic missiles and KN-25 “super-large caliber” multiple-rocket launcher.
But Pyongyang notably test-fired the KN-24 missiles for the first time since March 2020. Monday’s test-firing marks the seventh and eighth test launches of the KN-24.
“The two-year delay between tests could be due to a number of factors, including political expediency. North Korea is most likely to conduct missile tests when they consider it to be politically beneficial,” said Michael Duitsman, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
“Each of these windows can only fit a limited number of tests, and developmental tests of new systems probably take a higher priority than testing systems that have completed initial flight tests and entered service.”
Step change in tri-axis missile program
Duitsman said Monday’s launch was a “test to evaluate missiles that are in production and deployed“ based on the North Korean media report.
Echoing the view, Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said the media report suggested that the triple set of KN-23, KN-24, KN-25 solid-propellant, short-range ballistic missiles had been deployed.
Kim forecast that North Korea would establish a new corps of missiles comprising the solid-propellant Pukguksong missiles, Hwasong 12, 14 and 15, KN-23, 24 and 25, and others. The missiles have enhanced mobility, precision and maneuverability, as well as the ability to evade defenses.
“There appears to have been a step change in North Korea’s established tri-axis missile program consisting of Scud, Nodong (or Rodong), Musudan-type missiles as well as in the country’s strategies and tactics for missile employment,” he said.
Kim raised doubts about whether the missile defense system pursued by the South Korean military is capable of intercepting newly developed, enhanced missiles.
South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense on Tuesday also said it “assessed North Korea’s every missile launch as a direct and grave military threat” to the country.
“North Korea will continue to develop more advanced and accurate systems as their program continues. Concerns over this test should rather be aimed at the overall advancement of their missile program as a whole,” Schmerler said.
KN-24 armed with nuclear warheads?
In Seoul, concerns over Monday’s missile test particularly stem from the possibility of a KN-24 missile with its relatively large payload carrying tactical nuclear warheads. Some analysts see Pyongyang would seek to turn the KN-24 into a dual-capable missile.
But US missile analysts share the view that the KN-24 system is mainly intended for delivering conventional warheads.
“The KN-24 appears to be designed for a range of conventional submunitions, which may be field-swappable,” said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“North Korea has provided no indication that the KN-24 will be nuclearized, but based on North Korea’s efforts in nuclear weapons design to date, they may be able to manufacture a compact enough warhead for this weapon.”
At the Eighth Party Congress, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un urged the country to produce more miniaturized and lighter nuclear warheads and to develop “tactical nuclear weapons.”
“The KN-24 could potentially carry a small nuclear warhead. Whether or not it carries a nuclear weapon in service depends on the role assigned to it in the North Korean military,” Duitsman said.
Analysts also say North Korea’s recent test-firing of four ballistic missiles in two discrete launches, which came after the Biden administration’s first sanctions designations, were carried out for both domestic and foreign policy purposes.
The North Korean media also conspicuously and unusually reported that the Second Economic Committee, which is subject to UN and US sanctions, conducted the plan for Monday’s missile test along with the Academy of Defense Science and other related institutions. But this is not an unprecedented report.
“I find the mention of the Second Economic Committee interesting,” Panda said. “The SEC is involved with missile production and overseas procurement; mentioning the Second Economic Committee’s involvement in a missile test shortly after the US sanctions action could be seen as a form of defiance, but we have no way of knowing for sure.”
4. N. Korea’s freight train service across border will depend on handling capacity of Uiju’s quarantine facility
Will trade return to at least a subsistence level for the Korean people?
Excerpts:
The State Planning Commission officials were reportedly sent to China to crunch the numbers before the Supreme People’s Assembly evaluates the trade-related budget next month.
In particular, the high-ranking North Korean cadres are researching and evaluating activities in China to ensure that all trade activity through China takes place under the control and administration of the state authorities.
The source said even if trade expands, the authorities want to control it so that only permitted goods enter the country. He added that the authorities will strengthen mechanisms to verify whether the proper items entered the country in the right amounts and to levy precise taxes.
N. Korea’s freight train service across border will depend on handling capacity of Uiju’s quarantine facility
Chinese traders have reportedly prepared more than 1,000 tons of the soybean oil for export to North Korea by trains and ships
Speculation about the restart of regular train service between China and North Korea has been sparked by the recent movement of freight trains across the border. Daily NK understands, however, that the frequency of trips will be managed in accordance with the handling capacity of the Uiju quarantine facility.
A North Korean freight train laden with goods returned to North Korea at around 7 AM on Jan. 17 after arriving in China on Jan. 16. Then, another freight train arrived at Dandong Railway Station at around 9 AM on Jan. 17.
This second freight train is likely to return to North Korea carrying construction supplies, medications, and other goods.
Daily NK understands from sources that the restart of freight train service is a short-term measure to prepare for next month’s Day of the Shining Star, or the Feb. 16 birthday of late North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. As such, it does not appear to represent a restart of regular train service.
In particular, as all the items imported on these trains will be stored at the Uiju quarantine facility, which was completed last month, the authorities plan to adjust import totals in line with the capacity of the new facility, according to Daily NK’s sources.
Since early last year North Korean authorities have been preparing quarantine measures for the start of Sino-North Korean trade, including the opening of a new quarantine facility on the runway of Uiju Airport near Sinuiju.
The recent trains represent the start of full-scale activities for the Uiju quarantine facility. North Korean authorities reportedly plan to evaluate just how much cargo the facility can handle and whether proper quarantine procedures are taking place for each item.
The train that returned to North Korea on Monday morning was reportedly laden with construction materials, medical supplies. and foodstuffs. Depending on the items in question, the supplies will be kept in quarantine from 15 days to as long as a month.
Of all the items North Korea imported, soybean oil stands out. Chinese traders have reportedly prepared more than 1,000 tons of the oil for export to North Korea.
A freight train from Sinuiju, North Korea, parked at the Dandong Railway Station, in Liaoning Province, China. There are people wearing white, protective suits in front of the train. / Image: Daily NK
The trains carried some of it to North Korea, while the rest will apparently arrive through Nampo on ships leaving a port in China’s Shandong Province.
Imported in bulk, the soybean oil will reportedly be given as gifts to the people for the Day of the Shining Star and the Day of the Sun, the holiday marking the Apr. 15 birthday of Kim Il Sung.
Because the North Korean authorities keep imported items in quarantine for up to a month after a thorough disinfection process, the goods must be imported immediately if they are to be distributed before Feb. 16.
As a result, North Korean authorities appear to have suddenly decided to import a lot of items by restarting freight train service with just one month left before the Day of the Shining Star.
Meanwhile, a Daily NK source claimed that the train that entered China on Sunday was carrying high-ranking North Korean cadres in its passenger car.
According to this source, the cadres from the Ministry of External Economic Relations, Ministry of State Security, and State Planning Commission arrived in Dandong to evaluate which items can be imported and how much, as well as delivery pathways and the credibility of Chinese traders.
The State Planning Commission officials were reportedly sent to China to crunch the numbers before the Supreme People’s Assembly evaluates the trade-related budget next month.
In particular, the high-ranking North Korean cadres are researching and evaluating activities in China to ensure that all trade activity through China takes place under the control and administration of the state authorities.
The source said even if trade expands, the authorities want to control it so that only permitted goods enter the country. He added that the authorities will strengthen mechanisms to verify whether the proper items entered the country in the right amounts and to levy precise taxes.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Seulkee Jang is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. Please direct any questions about her articles to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
5. Chinese Foreign Ministry on rail link trade resumption- Has China-North Korea trade via rail resumed, and what could it mean?
Two articles below.
January 18th, 2022
By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein
This Bloomberg story on the resumption of railroad traffic carries an interesting quote by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson:
China says trade via a railroad link with North Korea has restarted, giving a much-needed boost to Kim Jong Un’s battered economy as the neighbors restored a service Pyongyang cut about a year and a half ago due to pandemic fears.
“After friendly consultations between the two sides, freight in goods in Dandong has resumed,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Monday at a regular press briefing, referring to a Chinese border city.
“This work will be conducted while ensuring pandemic prevention and safety, and to help normal trade exchanges between the two countries,” he added.
Kim’s decision to close borders at the start of the pandemic slammed the brakes on the little legal trade it had with China, his state’s biggest benefactor. It also helped push the sanctions-hit economy into its biggest contraction in more than two decades, with Kim making rare admissions of the country’s difficulties in recent months.
(Source: “China Says Rail-Borne Trade With North Korea Has Restarted,” Bloomberg News, January 17th, 2022.)
This statement certainly does suggest that the resumption is intended to be permanent, and that the two countries will work to restore trade the way it was before the Covid-19 border lockdown.
January 16th, 2022
By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein
Today (January 16th), a freight train from North Korea crossed into China for the first time since the pandemic border shutdown began. Reuters reports, based on statements by several Chinese businesspeople involved in border trade, that this marks a more permanent, long-term resumption of trade between the countries.
It is too early to say if this is a long-term change or a unique event, and the coming weeks and months will confirm whether or not this marks a permanent change. It will also, hopefully, give us some sort of clue about how quarantine procedures are supposed to work on the North Korean side.
It goes without saying that this would be a welcome change for the North Korean economy. The pause in North Korean exports to China has created significant difficulties, but as Bill Brown has often pointed out, the blockade against North Korean imports from China also creates severe problems for several industries. As an example, see this Radio Free Asia report about the bottlenecks in the economy that tire shortages are causing:
The source said that two of the four cars owned by his company cannot be used due to the tire shortage.
“Drivers will use the same tires until the treads are worn out and shiny, so it has become the norm to re-use punctured or torn tires by putting a small piece of an old tire tube over them. Sometimes they have to be put in at an angle because the tires they are using are either larger or smaller than the vehicle’s specifications,” the source said.
“I have never seen new tires produced locally. Since international trade is stopped due to the border closure, it has become difficult to import used tires,” said the source.
The ban has become problematic for many North Korean drivers who use their vehicles for supplemental jobs in the country’s nascent market economy, the source said.
“They can no longer drive their cars to earn a little extra income because they don’t have tires.”
(Source: Chang Gyu Ahn, “North Korean tire shortage grounds vehicles, disrupts commerce,” Radio Free Asia, January 13th, 2022.)
6. Chun In-bum on Seoul’s Security Policy Amid the Mounting North Korean Missile Threat
LTG (RET) Chun In Bum is one of the leading voices in Korean security affairs who speaks truth to power to the Korean national security apparatus.
Wise words in the concluding paragraph.
Does South Korea have enough self-defense capability to deter North Korea’s threats without the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella?
No. It is an unfortunate fact that North Korean propaganda has depicted the South Korean military as a feeble force. It is more unfortunate that North Koreans believe it. Even though South Korea has an economy that is 40 times greater than North Korea and we have been outspending the North in defense for decades, the truth is that the entire North Korean society focuses on war and its execution while the lack of security awareness has been pervaded into South Koreans. This is why we are always at risk.
The Korean people must commit to a strong ROK-U.S. alliance and yet not rely on the U.S. too much. South Koreans must invest and sacrifice for the country’s national defense more than they are now.
I have a slightly different perspective on deterring north Korea. Deterrence is in the mind of Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un may not believe that any South Korean capability is sufficient to give him pause and to deter his decision making. I Believe his judgment may be clouded by his own propaganda (e.g., north Korea is superior to the puppet South that is under the thumb of the US). South Korea should continue to improve its military capabilities to be able to successfully fight and win a war against north Korea and realize that South Korea alone is unlikely to deter Kim due to his assumptions and world view. The kill chain concept is a necessary capability but possessing the capability may not deter Kim Jong-un. South Korea needs the capability to defend itself and therefore must fully field the system and sustain it and not rely on the idea of the concept alone to deter Kim. The idea that South Korea should invest in deterrence leads to vanity projects such as building nuclear powered submarines which will have no effect on Kim Jong-un decision making. I would go so far to say that even if South Korea developed and fielded its own nuclear weapons it would not deter Kim Jong-un. South Korea needs to invest in the most effective war fighting capabilities that will allow it to fight and win.
Chun In-bum on Seoul’s Security Policy Amid the Mounting North Korean Missile Threat
The retired lieutenant general speaks about wartime OPCON transfer, Pyongyang’s recent missile tests, and the push for an end-of-war declaration.
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The failed Hanoi summit meeting between the United States and North Korea in February 2019 effectively scuttled South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s peace process, and his bid to declare the end of the 1950-53 Korean War and activate inter-Korean cooperation. Ever since, Moon has been actively seeking to renew the stalled nuclear talks and inter-Korean dialogue, but there is no momentum on his side.
Considering the deadlocked nuclear talks and North Korea’s recent flurry of missile tests, how should future South Korean governments manage the current events and security hot potatoes?
For an in-depth look, The Diplomat’s Mitch Shin interviewed Lieutenant General (Ret.) Chun In-bum, the president of the Association of the United States Army (AUSA) Korean Chapter and advisory member of the National Bureau of Asian Research. Chun also serves as the vice president of the MIG Alley Chapter of the U.S. Air Forces Association.
Chun previously served as the chief of the Election Support Branch, Civil Military Affairs/Strategic Operations Directorate at the Multi-National Force in Iraq. Chun also served as the director of U.S. Affairs at the Korean Ministry of National Defense and was involved in negotiations and cooperation with the U.S. on the relocation of U.S. forces, camp returns, ROK/U.S. Joint Vision Study, Special Measures Agreement, and the transition of the Wartime Operational Control. Chun commanded the 27th Infantry Division and was the senior member of the U.N. Command Military Armistice Commission. Chun was promoted to lieutenant general in November 2013 and was assigned as the commander of the ROK Special Warfare Command. He retired from active duty on July 31, 2016.
Tension between the two superpowers – the United States and China – is rising. What are the core differences in what the two superpowers are seeking to achieve in the Northeast Asian region, especially on the Korean Peninsula?
It seems China wishes to turn the clock back about 1,500 years and gain dominance over the Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, the United States wants stability. Growing stability will bring more opportunities in South Korea. It is no accident that South Korea is the only country that gained independence after World War II that has been able to achieve industrialization and political democratization.
In the eyes of South Korea, what are the main obstacles or barriers to transferring wartime OPCON to South Korea, and what does it mean to South Korea?
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The main obstacle is a nuclear-armed North Korea and the lack of fundamentals for the South Korean military. North Korea has always had the wrong perception of contempt for the South Korean military, and the U.S. forces in Korea was and is the only deterrent against a North Korean attack. Now that North Korea has nuclear weapons this is a greater problem.
South Korean progressives wrongly approached the wartime OPCON transfer issue from a national sovereignty perspective. This preconception has been driving the South Korean progressives. On the other hand, the Korean conservatives rely on the United States for its defense. I do not agree with their views. However, the genie is already out of the bottle and there is no turning back. The only option for the Koreans is to strengthen the ROK-U.S. alliance and work on [South Korea’s] fundamental capabilities to take responsibility for its defense.
Although many South Koreans think that the U.S. is against South Korea exercising wartime OPCON, I do not agree with this. If this were the case, why would have the United States agree to the transfer of peacetime OPCON in 1994? The United States’ main goal is to ensure the security of the Korean Peninsula.
In the midst of the deadlocked U.S.-North Korea nuclear talks, how do you view Seoul’s “end-of-war declaration” initiative?
I feel that the end-of-war declaration and a peace treaty are long overdue. Having said that, the initiative that is being pursued at the moment seems to be politically driven and not focused on security. This haphazard approach is very dangerous, because it seems to be not looking at the second- and third-order effects of such a declaration. However, I believe the future governments should prepare more thoroughly on this initiative for the security of the country, not for their political purposes.
With North Korea demanding that the U.S. end its so-called “hostile policy,” how should South Korea tackle North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile capabilities?
A strong alliance with the United States – represented by U.S. forces in Korea – is more important than ever because of the extended deterrence that the military alliance provides. In order to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, however, we might have to be on a partial level with the North Koreans. What I mean is the reintroduction of U.S. nuclear weapons to the theater or indigenous nuclear weapons for South Korea. Either of these options is not attractive and should only occur with U.S. support and consensus, which is nearly impossible to attain at this moment.
Having said that, with the PRC’s policies as well as the steady improvement in North Korean nuclear capability this option needs to be discussed by the U.S., South Korea, and Japan before it is too late.
As for North Korean demands for the removal of “hostile policies,” it seems it’s just an excuse to either buy time or de facto surrender to North Korean demands. Unless North Korea can show sincerity, I fear we are in for a bad outcome.
Does South Korea have enough self-defense capability to deter North Korea’s threats without the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella?
No. It is an unfortunate fact that North Korean propaganda has depicted the South Korean military as a feeble force. It is more unfortunate that North Koreans believe it. Even though South Korea has an economy that is 40 times greater than North Korea and we have been outspending the North in defense for decades, the truth is that the entire North Korean society focuses on war and its execution while the lack of security awareness has been pervaded into South Koreans. This is why we are always at risk.
The Korean people must commit to a strong ROK-U.S. alliance and yet not rely on the U.S. too much. South Koreans must invest and sacrifice for the country’s national defense more than they are now.
7. After Resuming Trade With China, North Korea Fires Another 2 Ballistic Missiles
Again, political warfare and warfighting.
After Resuming Trade With China, North Korea Fires Another 2 Ballistic Missiles
A day after a North Korean train crossed the border to get goods from China, the country conducted its fourth missile test in two weeks.
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North Korea fired two missiles eastward from Sunan Airfield in Pyongyang on Monday, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). The missiles – suspected to be short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) were launched at 8:50 a.m. and 8:54 a.m. Korea Standard Time (KST), respectively, and flew about 380 km at a maximum altitude of 42 km, the JCS said.
Today’s missile test came three days after North Korea tested two railway-borne SRBMs on January 14, and marked the North’s fourth missile test in less than two weeks. North Korea also launched what it called hypersonic missiles on January 5 and January 11.
South Korea’s JCS said it is analyzing more details on the type and performance of the latest missiles with the U.S. military. Based on the information released by the JCS so far, the missiles could be North Korea’s KN-23, KN-24, or KN-25 missiles.
North Korea has not yet published any information on the performance of the missiles. Based on previous launches, state media will likely publish detailed information on the missile tests around 6-7 a.m. KST on Tuesday.
South Korea’s National Security Council held an emergency meeting hours after North Korea launched the two “apparent” SRBMs on Monday. In a statement after the meeting, the NSC called the North’s missile tests “very regrettable,” a slightly stronger response compared with its expression of “strong regret” after previous tests.
North Korea has conducted four missile tests so far this month. The two railway-borne SRBMs launched on Friday were perhaps the most eye-catching, bringing more attention from the U.S. and South Korea. That test was conducted in the afternoon – which was unusual as North Korea usually test-fires missiles in the early morning KST – and came hours after Pyongyang released a statement condemning the U.S. decision to impose sanctions on six North Korean individuals who are involved in the country’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missile programs.
North Korea had already conducted hypersonic missile tests on January 5 and 11 to prove its advanced missile technologies after Seoul downplayed the performance of its “apparent” hypersonic missile launched on January 5 as “a general ballistic missile.”
Pyongyang is showing its military might by repeatedly violating the U.N. Security Council resolution that bans North Korea from testing and developing any type of ballistic missiles.
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“By now, Kim Jong Un has effectively achieved his goal of normalizing his SRBMs since resuming tests on May 4, 2019,” Lee Sung-yoon, a professor in the Fletcher School at Tufts University, told The Diplomat. While Pyongyang has been testing SRBMs, Lee raised the possibility that Pyongyang could “move on to bigger provocations by resuming intermediate and long-range missile tests, possibly punctuated by a missile-borne nuclear test in the skies above the Pacific.”
North Korea has not conducted any intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) launches or nuclear tests since November 2017. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had announced a self-imposed moratorium on such tests as part of nuclear negotiations with then-U.S. President Donald Trump. However, Kim said in December 2019 that he no longer felt bound by his self-moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests, meaning North Korea could test ICBMs – including missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland – in the future.
North Korea’s recent SRBM tests clearly showed Kim’s strong will to beef up his country’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Compared with previous missiles tests in the last weeks, however, today’s missile test came unexpectedly a day after North Korea resumed trade with China by cargo train in a bid to solve the country’s devastating food shortages.
According to media reports, the train crossed the border from Sinuiju to Dandong, a Chinese city near the border with North Korea, on Sunday and headed back to Sinuiju on Monday. Another cargo train crossed the border to head to Dandong on Monday, implying North Korea and China unofficially agreed to resume trading even though North Korea has been reluctant to reopen the borders due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Reports indicated that the basic necessities of life such as flour, sugar, and cooking oil may have been the train’s cargo, along with some chemical products and goods requested by the North’s leadership
Cheong Seong-chang, the director of the Center for North Korean Studies at Sejong Institute in South Korea, told The Diplomat that it would take about 10 days to disinfect the train to bring the goods inside the country. If no issues emerge from this trade, North Korea will likely open the New Yalu River Bridge in late February, a move that would allow more personal exchanges from April between Pyongyang and Beijing, Cheong said.
North Korea closed its border and halted exchanges starting in late January of 2020, when coronavirus cases surged in China. Pyongyang completely suspended all trade with China, worsening the food shortages and economic crisis from the U.N.-led economic sanctions.
Last year, North Korea tried to reopen the border to get goods and supplies from China, but its disinfection system was not ready to cope with an unexpected emergency situation. Despite the resumption of trade with China on Sunday, it is still in doubt whether North Korea has a reliable disinfection system to prevent the spread of COVID-19 after reopening trade and exchanges with China.
Restarting trade with China could be a signal that North Korea would consider re-engaging international diplomacy. However, Kim is unlikely to respond to any of the United States’ and South Korea’s efforts to restore the stalled talks, considering the North Korean Foreign Ministry’s recent remarks on the U.S. sanctions: “If the U.S. adopts such a confrontational stance, the DPRK will be forced to take stronger and certain reaction to it.” (DPRK is an acronym of North Korea’s official name: Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.)
Given those comments, and Kim’s promise to respond with “goodwill to goodwill, strength to strength” in his approach to the nuclear talks and inter-Korean relations, today’s missile launch signals that North Korea will not succumb to the U.S. sanctions and “double standards” on the military activities conducted by the two Koreas. It will likely keep testing SRBMs until the international community recognizes it as a nuclear power, even while focusing more on reviving the country’s economy and developing rural areas for this year.
With the Beijing Winter Games less than three weeks away, some expected North Korea to pause its missile tests until the end of the Olympics, especially given the overture to renew China-North Korea trade. However, Pyongyang tested SRBMs again on Monday, raising more tensions and concerns on the Korean Peninsula that could affect China’s plan to host a successful Olympics in a peaceful mood.
8. US court awards Warmbier family US$240,000 seized from North Korea
Small victories.
We should respect what the Warmbiers and their legal team is doing. They are not profiting from their son's tragedy. They are some of the very few Americans who are actively trying to damage the Kim family regime. We need to seize more north Korean assets to support the court rulings. These seizures directly impact Kim Jong-un both psychologically and in his royal court economy.
US court awards Warmbier family US$240,000 seized from North Korea
Otto Warmbier was detained in North Korea for allegedly removing a propaganda poster from his hotel, and died days after being sent back to the United States in a coma in 2017 (Photo: FAMILY HANDOUT/AFP/File/Handout)
Otto Warmbier's parents Fred and Cindy Warmbier, pictured here in 2018, sued sued North Korea for the alleged torture and murder of their son (Photo: AFP/File/Nicholas Kamm)
18 Jan 2022 05:17PM (Updated: 18 Jan 2022 05:17PM)
SEOUL: A United States court has awarded the family of Otto Warmbier, the American student who died after being jailed by Pyongyang, US$240,000 seized from a North Korean bank, court records showed.
The 22-year-old Warmbier, who was detained in North Korea for allegedly removing a propaganda poster from his hotel, died days after being sent back to the United States in a coma in 2017.
His parents, Cynthia and Frederick Warmbier, sued North Korea for the alleged torture and murder of their son, with a US judge ordering Pyongyang to pay them US$501 million in 2018.
Impoverished North Korea, struggling under biting international sanctions over its nuclear weapons programme, is believed to have few assets in the United States and has ignored the 2018 ruling.
Last week, Judge Lawrence Kahn of the Northern District Court of New York approved the seizure of the funds from North Korea's Korea Kwangson Banking Corporation after they failed to respond to a forfeiture order.
"Judgement is hereby entered in favor of the Plantiffs/Judgement Creditors Cynthia Warmbier and Fredrerick Warmbier with respect to the Subject Funds in the sum of $240,336.41, plus any accrued interest thereon," said the order, seen by AFP.
Otto Warmbier, an Ohio native who studied at the University of Virginia, travelled to North Korea on a tour in 2016.
He was pulled away from his group at Pyongyang airport and charged with crimes against the state for allegedly taking down a propaganda poster.
According to the 2018 ruling, when he finally returned home after 17 months, Warmbier was attached to a feeding tube and was howling incomprehensible noises.
Warmbier had gone blind and deaf, his once straight teeth were misaligned and his eyes bulged out, the ruling said.
He died six days later.
North Korea at the time blamed his condition on medicine they said he took for botulism.
9. U.S. policy of engaging with North Korea is turning out to be a mistake, analyst says
My criticism of the Biden administration's policy is that it has not sufficiently articulated the policy so that the press and public understands it and it leads to assessments such as this that criticizes it for being "engagement only." The administration never "named" the policy just as the Obama administration did not and that leads the press and pundits to reprise the idea of "strategic patience." The second criticism I have among analysts is that the blame seems to always be on whatever US administration is in office and insufficient blame is placed on the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. Perhaps everyone takes it for granted that everyone knows that the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. But we should not take it for granted that people understand this. This is especially true among those pundits who call for maximum engagement (and appeasement) - they refuse to call out the regime's evil nature and instead dream of making a diplomatic breakthrough through lifting of sanctions.
We should also recall that during the Trump administration we set a very high red line for Kim - no nuclear tests and no ICBM testing. This has provided Kim freedom of action for anything below that. There were no significant responses to the sustained missile and rocket testing activity in 2019-2020 =with some 30 launches and tests. We cede the initiative to Kim as long as he did not test a nuclear weapon or ICBM. We have to now find a way to lower that red line.
But the Biden policy really consists of four parts or lines of effort that are rarely addressed comprehensively:
1. Principled and practical diplomacy. This is the press and pundit focus. But what the Biden administration is doing in this line of effort is offering Kim the chance to act as a responsible member of the international community. But the administration is not banking on that, thus the other three lines of effort that are too often overlooked.
2. Alliance based focus for deterrence, defense and diplomacy. (and trilateral cooperation among both of the US Northeast Asia alliances with the ROK and Japan).
3. "Stern deterrence" - this is about revitalizing the ROK/US military alliance and strengthening defense capabilities to include returning exercises to a level that will sustain readiness (and support OPCON transition) to reverse the dangerous trend being by the previous administration and welcomed by the current Moon administration.
4. Full implementation of all relevant UN Security Council resolutions. This provides the "end state" objectives for an end to the north's nuclear and missile programs, human right abuses and crimes against humanity, proliferation of weapons to conflict areas around the world, cyber attacks, and global illicit activities. It also underscores one element that the current administration has with the previous one and that is sanctions will not be lifted until there is substantive progress toward compliance with the UNSCRs. Both Trump and Biden deserve credit for not giving in to the pressure in Seoul and among some in Washington that believe we need to lift sanctions to bring Kim to the negotiating table. And one thing that engagers overlook is that the President does not have the authority to make a unilateral decision to lift UN sanctions or stop enforcing US laws as they pertain to north Korea. However, as noted, both presidents should have done more and hopefully will do more in the future and expend more effort on sanctions enforcement. The recent designation of the five Koreans from the north operating in Russia and China is a good start.
When we discuss the administration policy we should consider all four lines of effort. And we need a pithy name to describe the policy otherwise the press and pundits will make one up or lazily continue to call it strategic patience.
U.S. policy of engaging with North Korea is turning out to be a mistake, analyst says
CNBC · by Abigail Ng · January 18, 2022
KEY POINTS
- The Biden administration’s decision to focus on engagement with North Korea appears to have been a mistake, said Anthony Ruggiero of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) after the reclusive state’s fourth weapons test in a month.
- “Biden chose engagement only. That was his policy in 2021. He didn’t even sanction any of North Korea’s nuclear missile programs at all in 2021,” said Ruggiero.
- The U.S. last week announced sanctions on eight people and entities for their work in developing weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile-related programs for Pyongyang — after at least two known North Korean ballistic missile tests.
VIDEO3:1403:14
Think tank: China should crack down on North Korea and not 'cheat' on sanctions
The U.S. decision to focus on engagement with North Korea appears to have been a mistake, a senior fellow at a Washington-based think tank said after the reclusive state conducted four missile tests in a month.
U.S. President Joe Biden "chose engagement only," said Anthony Ruggiero of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "That was his policy in 2021. He didn't even sanction any of North Korea's nuclear missile programs at all in 2021."
"It's turning out now to be a mistake, because as you said the fourth missile test today. And I'm sure there'll be more, as you noted, we're not even halfway through January," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Monday.
"The Academy of Defence Science confirmed the accuracy, security and efficiency of the operation of the weapon system under production," KCNA said.
The presidential office in South Korea said North Korea's repeated firing of missiles was an "extremely regrettable situation."
Japan's ministry of defense estimated that the missiles landed outside its exclusive economic zone, and strongly condemned the launches, NBC News reported.
'Atrophy' of sanctions on North Korea
"When you allow the sanctions to atrophy, and you don't sort of respond to ballistic missile launches that were happening in the fall, I think [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's] response was: 'Well, I guess these are OK to do,'" he said.
"Now, the Biden administration has said 'No, that is not OK to do.'"
The United States last week announced sanctions on eight people and entities for their work in developing weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile-related programs for Pyongyang. It came after at least two known North Korean ballistic missile tests.
"I think that's a good first start," Ruggiero said. "But there's much, much more they need to be doing."
He said that past administrations in the U.S. made the mistake of seeing negotiations with North Korea as an accomplishment in itself. "It is not," he added.
Biden could increase pressure and impose sanctions when North Korea tests missiles, even if talks are ongoing, said Ruggiero.
He also said the two sides appear to be a "long way off from engagement."
North Korea is trying to lay a trap for the Biden administration.
Leif-Eric Easley
Professor at Ewha University
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, on Friday said North Korea should be offered humanitarian assistance once it is willing to re-engage, but its threats should not be rewarded with international recognition or sanctions relief.
"North Korea is trying to lay a trap for the Biden administration. It has queued up missiles that it wants to test anyway and is responding to U.S. pressure with additional provocations in an effort to extort concessions," he said in an email after North Korea's third launch this month.
Calling North Korea's 'bluff'
Pyongyang has little room for escalation because of its internal challenges and its need for restraint during the Beijing Winter Olympics, Easley said.
"Washington and its allies should call the Kim regime's bluff by increasing U.S.-South Korea-Japan security cooperation and strengthening enforcement of UN Security Council Resolutions," he said.
"The U.S. commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remains ironclad," it added.
CNBC · by Abigail Ng · January 18, 2022
10. UN chief calls for diplomatic talks toward denuclearization of Korean Peninsula
Chinese propaganda outlet exploiting the UN Secretary General's words.
UN chief calls for diplomatic talks toward denuclearization of Korean Peninsula
Photo provided by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows a tactical guided missile launched during a firing drill in North Phyongan Province, South Korea, Jan. 14, 2022. (KCNA via Xinhua)
"And for us, it is just another reminder of the need for the DPRK and all the parties engaged to involve themselves, engage themselves in diplomatic talks so we can get what the United Nations would like to see, which is a very verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and, in the more immediate term, a lowering of tensions," a UN spokesman said.
UNITED NATIONS, Jan. 17 (Xinhua) -- UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls for diplomatic talks between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and all parties concerned toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, said his spokesman on Monday.
The DPRK reportedly fired two short-range projectiles into eastern waters on Monday, the fourth launch in less than two weeks.
"There haven't been that many periods, I think, in recent time where we have seen so many launches from the DPRK," said Stephane Dujarric, Guterres' spokesman. "And for us, it is just another reminder of the need for the DPRK and all the parties engaged to involve themselves, engage themselves in diplomatic talks so we can get what the United Nations would like to see, which is a very verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and, in the more immediate term, a lowering of tensions."
Asked whether Guterres should reach out to Pyongyang, the spokesman suggested the existing mechanisms be used.
"I think there are existing mechanisms and existing lines of communications. And I think, at this point, these should be used, and the secretary-general is very supportive of those diplomatic frameworks that already exist. But they need to be used," said Dujarric.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said Monday that the South Korean military detected two projectiles, presumed to be short-range ballistic missiles, which were launched from the DPRK's Sunan airfield in Pyongyang.
The DPRK's Korean Central News Agency said last week that the country's railway-borne missile regiment test-fired two tactical guided missiles on Friday. Pyongyang said it successfully test-launched a hypersonic missile on Jan. 5 and a missile of the same kind on Jan. 11. ■
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
