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Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

 "...do not fear the term "'psychological warfare'...just because it's a five-dollar, five-syllable word...[it] is the struggle for the minds and wills of men."
- Eisenhower

“[Strategy] is more than a science: it is the application of knowledge to practical life, the development of thought capable of modifying the original guiding idea in the light of ever-changing situations; it is the art of acting under the pressure of the most difficult conditions.”
- Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War

“The right to provoke, offend, and shock lies at the core of the First Amendment. This is particularly so on college campuses. Intellectual advancement has traditionally progressed through discord and dissent, as a diversity of views ensures that ideas survive because they are correct, not because they are popular.”
 - Richard V. Reeves, All Minus One: John Stuart Mill's Ideas on Free Speech Illustrated




1. N. Korea fires intermediate-range ballistic missile toward East Sea: S. Korean military
2. North Korea Fires Medium-Range Missile, Its Most Powerful Test in Years
3. North Korea’s Latest Missile Test Appears to Be Its Boldest in Years
4. North Korea fires its longest-range missile since 2017, the latest in a string of test launches
5. Moon says North Korea inches closer to scrapping ICBM moratorium
6. China-Russia drills near Japan hint at burgeoning military ties (note Korea relationship)
7. Yoon pledges additional THAAD deployment after N.K. launch
8. S. Korean nuke envoy holds phone talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts over N.K. missile
9. U.S. condemns N. Korean missile launch, urges Pyongyang to refrain from further provocations
10. Moon says North Korea’s latest missile launch ‘breach of UN security council resolution’
11. Women in the Workplace in North Korea
12.  North Korea Is Preparing to Confront the US in 2022
13. North Korean officials import luxury foods ahead of Lunar New Year
14.  <Inside N. Korea> Many people are released from prison under the Great Amnesty.
15. How do N. Koreans celebrate Lunar New Year?




1. N. Korea fires intermediate-range ballistic missile toward East Sea: S. Korean military
On the way to an ICBM and possible nuclear weapons test? We must not show fear and we certainly must not give in to Kim's blackmail diplomacy. If we lift sanctions now he will repeat this same pattern in the future to coerce us and make new demands for concessions.

I think it is time we recognize, understand, expose, and attack Kim Jong-un's dual track strategy of political warfare and warfighting preparations. It is time we execute a comprehensive influence campaign focusing on exposing Kim's strategy to his people. Recall that he fears the Korean people more than he fears the US. We need to start exploiting Kim's weaknesses in a strategic and tactical manner.

(3rd LD) N. Korea fires intermediate-range ballistic missile toward East Sea: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 30, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with S. Korean official's explanation, details)
By Song Sang-ho and Kang Yoon-seung
SEOUL, Jan. 30 (Yonhap) -- North Korea fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) into the East Sea on Sunday, South Korea's military said, raising fears that Pyongyang has inched toward its threatened suspension of a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the missile, fired at a steep angle from Mupyong-ri in the northern province of Jagang, at 7:52 a.m., and it flew about 800 kilometers at a top altitude of 2,000 km.
The missile hit a top speed of Mach 16, 16 times the speed of sound, and appears to be similar to the Hwasong-12 missile that the North tested in 2017, a military official told reporters, requesting anonymity.
Sunday's launch marks the North's seventh show of force this year and by far its biggest weapons test since the test-firing of its self-proclaimed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in November 2017.
Fears of the recalcitrant engaging in more provocative actions have lingered as Pyongyang issued a thinly veiled threat on Jan. 20 to lift its moratorium on strategic weapons tests declared in April 2018.
Shortly after the latest launch, JCS Chairman Gen. Won In-choul and Gen. Paul LaCamera, the commander of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Korea, held phone talks and reaffirmed the allies' "firm" defense posture, according to the JCS.
"Our military is tracking and monitoring related North Korean movements and maintaining a readiness posture," the JCS said in a text message sent to reporters.
The military authorities here are conducting a detailed analysis on Sunday's launch, including whether it used a solid-fuel or liquid-fuel rocket.
Some analysts said the latest launch could be part of a long-running effort to ultimately deploy a credible longer-range ballistic missile capable of striking the U.S. territory of Guam and its mainland.
Particularly, the North's quest to develop ICBMs has been a major source of concern here as the missiles could strike the continental U.S., keep American forces at bay and thus call into doubt the U.S. security commitment to South Korea.
President Moon Jae-in presided over a plenary session of the National Security Council (NSC) for the first time in about a year and called the latest launch a violation of U.N. Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. But he stopped short of calling it a "provocation."
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command condemned the launch and called on the North to refrain from "further destabilizing acts."
"While we have assessed that this event does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel, territory or that of our allies, we will continue to monitor the situation," the command said.
"The U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK and Japan remains ironclad," it added, referring to South Korea by its official name, Republic of Korea.
Pyongyang has been ratcheting up tensions with a series of missile launches since the start of this year as Washington has stepped up sanctions pressure amid a protracted deadlock in nuclear talks between the two countries.
The North launched the largest monthly number of projectiles in January since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un took power in late 2011. It conducted six projectile launches in both March and July 2014.
The North fired what it claims to be surface-to-surface tactical guided missiles Thursday, just two days after its apparent long-range cruise missile test.
It conducted four other launches earlier this month, including those of what it claimed to be hypersonic missiles.
The recent bouts of the North's saber-rattling also came as it seeks to tighten internal unity amid the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and persistent economic woes stemming from debilitating sanctions.

sshluck@yna.co.kr
colin@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 30, 2022




2. North Korea Fires Medium-Range Missile, Its Most Powerful Test in Years

More on the horizon? What will be the Lunar New Year's present on Feb 1?

Excerpt:
The January missile barrage allowed North Korea to win tacit acceptance of the bad behavior, with the shock value largely dissipated, said Lee Sung-yoon, a Korea expert at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.
“It’s been a prelude to greater provocations,” Mr. Lee said. “Expect rockets to flare throughout February.”
North Korea Fires Medium-Range Missile, Its Most Powerful Test in Years
Pyongyang hasn’t launched a missile with such range since 2017
WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin
Seoul labeled it an intermediate-range ballistic missile, while Tokyo called it longer than a midrange weapon.
The Sunday test is the clearest recent action by the Kim regime toward a potential return to major provocations—even though it appears, based on initial assessments, to have fallen short of being classified as an intercontinental-ballistic missile, according to weapons experts.
North Korea, in the aftermath of 2019’s no-deal Vietnam summit with the U.S., has unleashed dozens of weapons tests, including seven in January. Its testing pacing has never revved up this high before. But the Kim regime has also attempted to walk a fine line, flashing shorter-range weapons or launching cruise missiles that have yet to draw widespread international blowback.
The distinction matters much more than just the miles. For more than four years, Mr. Kim has specifically dangled his country’s pause on ICBM launches and nuclear tests as a signal his cloistered regime has given diplomacy a shot with the U.S. The other shorter-range missile activity, Pyongyang argues, is a sovereign right to national defense.
Based on the initial launch assessments from Seoul and Tokyo, the missile tested on Sunday closely resembles the North’s “Hwasong-12” medium-range weapon, according to weapons experts. It mirrors, both in altitude and flight distance, a May 2017 launch of the Hwasong-12, they say.
That would leave Sunday’s missile launch with an estimated intermediate range of about 2,800 miles, shy of the 3,400 miles-or-more threshold to generally be considered an intercontinental ballistic missile, said Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, Calif.
“We’re getting closer to North Korea resuming ICBM tests,” Mr. Lewis said.
The Sunday launch’s flight features weren’t very far off from long-range technology, said Scott LaFoy, a ballistic-missile and nuclear-weapons specialist at Exiger Federal Solutions, a risk-management firm. “There is a little bit of a ‘same difference’ thing happening,” Mr. LaFoy said.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in, at an emergency meeting Sunday with his national-security team, noted Pyongyang’s pause of more than four years on ICBM and nuclear tests. Assuming the Sunday launch was an intermediate-range missile, Mr. Moon told meeting attendees that North Korea has “moved closer to scrapping the moratorium.” Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said, “North Korea has been repeating missile launches in new conditions at an unprecedentedly high frequency.”
The U.S. condemned the launch, urging North Korea to refrain from provocations and return to dialogue, according to a State Department statement. South Korea said its nuclear envoy had stressed close communication in separate phone calls with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts.
North Korea didn’t provide immediate comment on Sunday’s launch. It was fired around 7:52 a.m. local time from the North’s Jagang province near its border with China, traveling around 30 minutes and flying about 500 miles before splashing into the waters between Korea and Japan, according to Seoul and Tokyo officials.
The latest launch didn’t appear to have landed in Japan’s maritime exclusive economic zone, a spokesman for the Tokyo government said. That represents a measure of restraint by Pyongyang, which in prior tests had flown missiles into Japan’s EEZ and even over the country, triggering emergency alerts.
Several months after the Hwasong-12 test in May, North Korea successfully launched what it dubbed “Hwasong-15” technology that could reach the U.S. mainland. That November 2017 test, though, hit an altitude of about 2,800 miles—or more than two times higher than Sunday’s launch.
Pyongyang is more than 5,000 miles away from the U.S. West Coast. But Hwasong-12 was believed to have enough range to reach the American military bases in Guam, which is about 2,000 miles from North Korea, weapons experts say. North Korean state media at the time referred to it as a “medium long-range” surface-to-surface missile.
For more than four years, Pyongyang has refrained from long-range missile launches and nuclear tests—though earlier this month, the country’s Politburo hinted it could return to such activity. Doing so, however, brings risks to the Kim regime. Such major provocations in the past have upset key allies in Beijing and Moscow, who haven’t condemned Pyongyang’s recent weapons activity and have advocated sanctions be relaxed.
The Kim regime’s launch of ballistic missiles is barred by United Nations Security Council resolutions, given how the weapons can attain intercontinental reach. Cruise missiles, which aren’t covered by the U.N. resolutions, tend to fly at much lower altitudes and travel shorter distances in general.
Mr. Kim, who is starting his second decade in power, is grappling with a battered economy, potential food shortages and continuing Covid-19 fears. Throughout the pandemic, Mr. Kim had curbed public appearances and appeared focused on domestic issues. A year-end speech dwelled on agricultural output, with the 38-year-old dictator giving no mention of the U.S. or President Biden.
In recent weeks, Mr. Kim watched the final test of the country’s self-proclaimed hypersonic technology—his first in-person visit to a launch in nearly two years. He recently toured a munitions factory tasked with “leaping progress in producing major weapons.”
The January missile barrage allowed North Korea to win tacit acceptance of the bad behavior, with the shock value largely dissipated, said Lee Sung-yoon, a Korea expert at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.
“It’s been a prelude to greater provocations,” Mr. Lee said. “Expect rockets to flare throughout February.”
—Alastair Gale and Chieko Tsuneoka in Tokyo contributed to this article.
Write to Timothy W. Martin at timothy.martin@wsj.com
WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin


3. North Korea’s Latest Missile Test Appears to Be Its Boldest in Years


Surprised? Really? Who is surprised?

Excerpt:
The new spate of missile tests has surprised some analysts in the region, who had expected the North to refrain from raising tensions before the Winter Olympics in Beijing, which begin this week. China is the North’s only major ally.

North Korea’s Latest Missile Test Appears to Be Its Boldest in Years
The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · January 29, 2022
Flight data indicates that a launch carried out Sunday was the North’s most powerful since 2017. South Korea said the projectile was a medium-range ballistic missile.

Watching coverage of North Korea’s latest missile launch in Seoul on Sunday.

By
Jan. 29, 2022Updated 10:04 p.m. ET
SEOUL — North Korea on Sunday carried out what appeared to be its boldest ballistic missile test in years, pressing ahead with its recent flurry of launches despite American warnings that the country could be subjected to more sanctions.
The missile was launched from the North Korean province of Jagang, which borders China, and flew across the North before falling into the sea off the country’s east coast, the South Korean military said. It was the North’s seventh missile test this month.
The office of President Moon Jae-in of South Korea said the projectile was a medium-range ballistic missile. Flight data suggested that it was the North’s most powerful launch since its last test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, in November 2017. It was fired at a steep angle, reaching an altitude of 1,242 miles while covering a distance of 497 miles, South Korean defense officials said.
The last time North Korea lunched a medium-range ballistic missile was in October 2019, when it tested the Pukguksong-3, a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
When North Korea tests intermediate and long-range missiles, it usually launches them at a deliberately steep angle to ensure that they don’t fly over Japan, which would be considered extremely provocative by Tokyo, Washington and their allies. Such missiles could cover much more distance if they were launched at normal ballistic missile trajectories.
In the North’s last ICBM test in 2017, the missile reached an altitude of 2,796 miles and covered a distance of 596 miles. After that test, North Korea claimed that its ballistic missiles could target parts or all of the continental United States with nuclear warheads.
The missile test Sunday was North Korea’s third in the last week and its seventh in January, which appears to have been its busiest month for missile launches since Kim Jong-un, its leader, came to power a decade ago. Until now, North Korea had never test-launched more than six missiles a month under Mr. Kim, according to South Korea’s national news agency, Yonhap.
Mr. Kim has vowed to concentrate on expanding the North’s nuclear and missile capabilities since his diplomacy with then-President Donald J. Trump ended without an agreement in 2019. He has rebuffed the Biden administration’s repeated offers to resume talks “without preconditions”; instead, he has ordered his government to prepare for a “long-term confrontation” with the United States.
The new spate of missile tests has surprised some analysts in the region, who had expected the North to refrain from raising tensions before the Winter Olympics in Beijing, which begin this week. China is the North’s only major ally.
The United States’ worsening relations with China and Russia appear to have given Mr. Kim an opening to test weapons with impunity. When Washington asked the United Nations Security Council to impose more sanctions on North Korea for its recent ballistic missile tests, which violated the council’s resolutions, both Beijing and Moscow vetoed the move.
The Significance of North Korea’s Missile Tests
Card 1 of 5
An increase in activity. In recent months, North Korea has conducted several missile tests, hinting at an increasingly defiant attitude toward countries that oppose its growing military arsenal. Here’s what to know:
U.N. resolutions. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula started rising in 2017, when North Korea tested three intercontinental ballistic missiles and conducted a nuclear test. The United Nations imposed sanctions, and Pyongyang stopped testing nuclear and long-range missiles for a time.
Failed diplomacy. Former President Donald Trump met with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, three times between 2018 and 2019, hoping to reach a deal on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. After the talks broke down, North Korea resumed missile testing.
An escalation. North Korea started a new round of testing in September​ after a six-month hiatus. It has since completed several tests, including the firing of multiple ballistic missiles, that violated the 2017 U.N. resolutions.
The U.S. response. Washington is proposing new U.N. sanctions on North Korea. The country, which insists it is exercising its right to self-defense, issued a statement shortly before firing two ballistic missiles on Jan. 14 denouncing the proposal.
In its last two weapons tests, North Korea said it flight-tested two long-range cruise missiles and a tactical guided missile that outside analysts call KN-23. The KN-23 is a short-range ballistic missile designed to thwart missile defense systems by making low-altitude, mid-flight maneuvers, according to missile experts.
On Friday, North Korea’s state media said Mr. Kim had visited “a munitions factory producing a major weapon system” to encourage his weapons developers.
In late 2019, Mr. Kim warned that he no longer felt bound by his self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests. ​ During a Politburo meeting last ​week, he ​again ​suggested that his government might resume its testing of long-range missiles and nuclear devices​.
The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · January 29, 2022



4. North Korea fires its longest-range missile since 2017, the latest in a string of test launches

Excerpt:

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said it detected an intermediate-range ballistic missile fired from North Korea’s Jagang Province toward its east coast and into the ocean. The missile, detected at 7:52 a.m. local time, flew 800 kilometers (497 miles) and reached an altitude of 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles), the Joint Chiefs said.
North Korea fires its longest-range missile since 2017, the latest in a string of test launches
The Washington Post · by Min Joo KimToday at 11:30 p.m. EST|Updated today at 2:33 a.m. EST · January 30, 2022
SEOUL — North Korea on Sunday conducted what appeared to be its longest-range missile test in five years as it ramps up military pressure amid long-stalled nuclear talks.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said it detected an intermediate-range ballistic missile fired from North Korea’s Jagang Province toward its east coast and into the ocean. The missile, detected at 7:52 a.m. local time, flew 800 kilometers (497 miles) and reached an altitude of 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles), the Joint Chiefs said.
The missile appears to have fallen into waters outside the country’s maritime exclusive economic zone, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said, according to Kyodo News. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida strongly condemned the weapons test and convened a meeting of the national security council, according to Kyodo.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in convened an emergency meeting of the country’s National Security Council to discuss North Korea’s weapons test. Moon criticized the intermediate-range missile test as “a challenge to the international community’s efforts for a diplomatic solution and a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.”
North Korea has not tested its longest-range ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons since 2017, when it conducted a nuclear test and test-fired three intercontinental ballistic missiles potentially capable of reaching anywhere in the United States. Following the missile test Sunday morning, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said the launch did not pose an immediate threat to the United States or its allies but called on North Korea to “refrain from further destabilizing acts.”
The flurry of weapons tests in 2017 led to punishing economic sanctions from the United Nations Security Council. The following year, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared a moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests, and launched a flurry of diplomacy.
However, Pyongyang suggested this month that it may lift the self-imposed moratorium, citing the need to counter hostility from the United States. Experts say North Korea is ramping up the pressure to force concessions from Washington amid a long stalemate in nuclear negotiations.
Sunday’s launch marks North Korea’s seventh weapons test this month, more than it conducted all of last year.
Earlier this week, North Korea said it successfully tested long-range cruise missiles and “surface-to-surface tactical guided” ballistic missiles.
Despite the sanctions, North Korea has been building up its missile capabilities under Kim’s directive. Last year, he announced a new five-year plan for weapons development and vowed arms modernization. North Korean state media said on Friday that Kim inspected a munitions factory and called for production of “powerful cutting-edge arms.”
This month, the Biden administration imposed fresh sanctions over North Korea’s weapons program after Pyongyang said it tested hypersonic missiles. North Korea’s Foreign Ministry reacted angrily to the new sanctions, saying its weapons program is defensive in nature.
The relationship between Pyongyang and Washington has soured since Kim’s nuclear summit with then-U.S. President Donald Trump collapsed in 2019 because of disagreements over sanctions relief in exchange for denuclearization. Pyongyang has given a cold shoulder to the Biden administration’s offers to hold talks “anytime, anywhere” without preconditions.
Read more:
The Washington Post · by Min Joo KimToday at 11:30 p.m. EST|Updated today at 2:33 a.m. EST · January 30, 2022



5. Moon says North Korea inches closer to scrapping ICBM moratorium

Do not back down. Do not give into coercion/extortion/blackmail diplomacy.
Moon says North Korea inches closer to scrapping ICBM moratorium
The Korea Times · by 2022-01-30 17:02 | North Korea · January 30, 2022
President Moon Jae-in / Korea Times file 

President Moon Jae-in said Sunday that North Korea has inched closer to scrapping its self-imposed moratorium on testing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) shortly after the North fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile.

Moon made the remark while presiding over a plenary meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) for the first time in about a year, an indication of how seriously he takes the launch of what is believed to be the longest-range missile the North has fired in recent years.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the North's missile flew about 800 kilometers at a maximum altitude of 2,000 km. The flight data indicated that North Korea tested its biggest ballistic missile since 2017.

The launch also marked the North's seventh such show of force this month alone.
"North Korea has kept its moratorium on nuclear tests and ICBM launches so far while expressing a willingness for dialogue. But if it did fire an intermediate-range ballistic missile, we can consider it has moved closer to scrapping the moratorium," Moon was quoted as saying during the meeting.

The President called on North Korea to stop creating tension and respond to international calls for dialogue.

Moon said the latest launch was "a challenge to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, and diplomatic efforts by the international community, as well as an act that violates the U.N. Security Council resolution," according to the statement.

During the meeting, Moon said North Korea may repeat a situation shown in 2017, when Pyongyang heightened tensions by launching intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

After the meeting ended, National Security Adviser Suh Hoon held a separate NSC meeting and condemned the North's launch of the intermediate-range ballistic missile.

"North Korea must immediately stop actions that create tensions on the Korean Peninsula and instability in the regional situation while maintaining the moratorium," the presidential office said in a separate statement.
North Korea has maintained a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and ICBM testing since late 2017.

Since the start of this year, the North has been ratcheting up tensions with a series of missile launches as the United States stepped up sanctions pressure amid stalled denuclearization talks between the two countries.

On Jan. 20, Pyongyang made a thinly veiled threat to lift its years-long moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests, sparking speculation it would engage in more provocative actions down the road.

The North launched the largest monthly number of projectiles in January since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un took power in late 2011. It conducted six launches in both March and July 2014. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · by 2022-01-30 17:02 | North Korea · January 30, 2022


6. China-Russia drills near Japan hint at burgeoning military ties (note Korea relationship)

Interesting analysis (or speculation) here:

Frustrated by the multilateral naval exercises conducted in East Asia by Japan, the U.S., Australia and European nations, China's holding of drills with Russia allows the Chinese government to show its citizens that their country is not isolated on the international stage.

China's shift of focus to the Sea of Japan may also be a worry for North Korea. The Julang-3 and the Type 096 are seen as Beijing's most important weapon systems in its U.S. strategy. In one extreme scenario, China could seize North Korea's Sea of Japan coast, including the port of Rajin, which would be an ideal home port for the Type 096.

Decades of support to North Korea from China and Russia are partly intended serve as bait for the U.S. If North Korea creates a crisis on the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. military would have to focus its attention there.

That would give Beijing and Moscow a freer hand to pursue their national interests elsewhere -- China might invade Taiwan or Russia launch an offensive in Ukraine while the U.S. was occupied elsewhere. Even if the North Korean regime collapsed, China could still occupy the country and seize Rajin.

Kim Jong Un's political survival in this scenario would hinge on avoiding a clash with the U.S. while keeping in step with China's efforts to counter the U.S. military.

North Korea's repeated missile launches into the Sea of Japan to highlight its ability to keep U.S. forces at bay are Pyongyang's survival strategy in the face of China's pivot to the Sea of Japan, something recognized by military officials of the countries concerned.

When China and Russia conducted their naval exercise last year, North Korea fired missiles as if it was cheering them on.


China-Russia drills near Japan hint at burgeoning military ties
Recent maneuvers threaten to shake up East Asian security order

TOKYO -- China and Russia appear to be entering a new and deeper phase of military cooperation that threatens to upset the established security order in East Asia.

Two Chinese and two Russian bombers flew southward over the northern part of the Sea of Japan on Nov. 29 last year, surprising Japanese and U.S. defense officials, who saw the sortie as an anomaly. While this was believed to be the third such group flight, following one in July 2019 and another in December 2020, the route the planes took differed significantly from the earlier flights.

In 2019 and 2020, the Chinese aircraft took off from that country's territory, passing over the Tsushima Strait and into the Sea of Japan, where they joined the Russian aircraft. The planes then flew together over the East China Sea and the Pacific. But in the latest flight, the Chinese bombers flew directly over land from northern China into Russia's Far East, where they met up with their Russian counterparts before flying over the Sea of Japan.

Military exercises sometimes serve as a rehearsal for an emergency. If Moscow has begun allowing foreign military aircraft to enter its airspace, relations between China and Russia can be said to have moved from military cooperation to a de facto military alliance.

In another unusual move, the two countries' navies deployed 10 ships last October for an exercise in which they sailed through the Tsugaru Strait between Honshu and Hokkaido and into the East China Sea.

A former intelligence officer with Japan's Defense Ministry said the joint exercises are "part of a strategy to keep U.S. forces and Japan's Self-Defense Forces away from the northern part of the Sea of Japan."

Chinese and Russian warships take part in naval exercises in the East China Sea near the Japanese island of Kyushu IN OCTOBER?? last year. © Japan Ministry of Defense/Kyodo
The Chinese navy is developing the Julang-3, a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile, and the Type 096 nuclear submarine to carry them. Japanese and U.S. defense officials have long predicted China will deploy the Type 096 in the northern part of the Sea of Japan, which might put the U.S. East Coast within range of the missiles.

The U.S. is taking steps to counter the Julang-3 threat. The USS Blue Ridge, the flagship of the U.S. 7th Fleet, made a port call at Otaru in Hokkaido in February 2019, and the guided-missile destroyer USS Stockdale is scheduled to visit next month. This is a warning to both Chinese and Russian warships sailing between the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk through the Soya Strait that the U.S. is watching.

With little experience of modern warfare, Chinese forces need help from their Russian counterparts to sharpen their capabilities and meet the challenge of a battle-hardened U.S. military. Russia cannot refuse requests for joint exercises: It sustains its economy by selling natural resources and weapons to China.

A variant of the Chinese H-6 bomber that took part in the joint flight with Russia last November can carry nuclear weapons. This shows that China will not rule out deploying nuclear weapons should the U.S. move into the northern part of the Sea of Japan to neutralize the Julang-3.

North Korea tests ballistic missiles on Jan. 17. [WHERE?] © KCNA/Kyodo
Frustrated by the multilateral naval exercises conducted in East Asia by Japan, the U.S., Australia and European nations, China's holding of drills with Russia allows the Chinese government to show its citizens that their country is not isolated on the international stage.

China's shift of focus to the Sea of Japan may also be a worry for North Korea. The Julang-3 and the Type 096 are seen as Beijing's most important weapon systems in its U.S. strategy. In one extreme scenario, China could seize North Korea's Sea of Japan coast, including the port of Rajin, which would be an ideal home port for the Type 096.

Decades of support to North Korea from China and Russia are partly intended serve as bait for the U.S. If North Korea creates a crisis on the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. military would have to focus its attention there.

That would give Beijing and Moscow a freer hand to pursue their national interests elsewhere -- China might invade Taiwan or Russia launch an offensive in Ukraine while the U.S. was occupied elsewhere. Even if the North Korean regime collapsed, China could still occupy the country and seize Rajin.

Kim Jong Un's political survival in this scenario would hinge on avoiding a clash with the U.S. while keeping in step with China's efforts to counter the U.S. military.

North Korea's repeated missile launches into the Sea of Japan to highlight its ability to keep U.S. forces at bay are Pyongyang's survival strategy in the face of China's pivot to the Sea of Japan, something recognized by military officials of the countries concerned.

When China and Russia conducted their naval exercise last year, North Korea fired missiles as if it was cheering them on.


7. Yoon pledges additional THAAD deployment after N.K. launch

I suppose he could request that. Does the US have enough systems to station additional ones in Korea? Will he first fix the problem with the professional activities who continue to manipulate the local population to protest the current THAAD basing? Or will the ROK request to purchase its own THAAD system?

Yoon pledges additional THAAD deployment after N.K. launch | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 30, 2022
SEOUL, Jan. 30 (Yonhap) -- Main opposition presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol pledged Sunday to deploy additional units of the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea following North Korea's launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile earlier in the day.
Yoon of the conservative People Power Party wrote the words "Additional THAAD deployment" on his Facebook page and did not elaborate.
The candidate has previously expressed support for the controversial missile defense system, which China has condemned as a threat to its national security.
In November, he told foreign correspondents in Seoul that decisions regarding THAAD deployment are a "sovereign matter" of the South Korean government that could lead to the system being upgraded.
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, was deployed in South Korea in 2017 to deter North Korea's nuclear and missile provocations.
China responded to the deployment by staging a massive economic retaliation campaign against Seoul.

hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 30, 2022

8. S. Korean nuke envoy holds phone talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts over N.K. missile

Maybe Kim will drive improved trilateral cooperation among the ROK, Japan, and US. That is one influence activity that would be useful to demonstrate. It would be another attack on Kim's objective to undermine US alliances. And strengthening ROK, Japan,and US trilateral cooperation would also not be well received in Beijing and Moscow.

S. Korean nuke envoy holds phone talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts over N.K. missile | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 30, 2022
SEOUL, Jan. 30 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's top nuclear envoy held phone talks with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts Sunday over North Korea's launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile earlier in the day, Seoul's foreign ministry said.
Noh Kyu-duk, special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs, and his American counterpart, Sung Kim, denounced the North's latest missile launch as a challenge to the international community's efforts to diplomatically resolve the Korean peninsula issue, as well as to the U.N. Security Council resolutions, according to the ministry.
"(The two sides) agreed to maintain the security posture based on the firm South Korea-U.S. alliance and continue efforts for an early resumption of dialogue with North Korea," the ministry said in a statement.
Noh also held a separate phone conversation with his Japanese counterpart, Takehiro Funakoshi, and agreed to continue "close communications and cooperation" to keep the situation on the peninsula under control.
North Korea fired the missile from the northern province of Jagang at 7:52 a.m., and it flew about 800 kilometers at a top altitude of 2,000 km, according to South Korea's military.
It marked the North's seventh show of force this year and by far its biggest weapons test since the test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile in November 2017.
Pyongyang appears to be inching closer to its earlier threat to consider suspending a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range ballistic missile tests amid an impasse in its nuclear negotiations with the United States.

scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 30, 2022



9. U.S. condemns N. Korean missile launch, urges Pyongyang to refrain from further provocations

Time to strike Kim where it hurts: information and influence. Let's undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime among the elite, the military and the Korean people living in the north.

U.S. condemns N. Korean missile launch, urges Pyongyang to refrain from further provocations | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 30, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Jan. 29 (Yonhap) -- The United States on Saturday condemned North Korea's latest missile launch as a clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, urging Pyongyang to refrain from further provocations.
"The United States condemns the DPRK's ballistic missile launch," a State Department spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"Like the DPRK's recent series of ballistic missile tests, this launch is a clear violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions, and demonstrates the threat the DPRK's unlawful weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs pose to the DPRK's neighbors and the region as a whole," the spokesperson added, asking not to be identified.
The remarks come hours after North Korea fired what Seoul said appeared to be a medium-range ballistic missile.
The latest missile launch marked the seventh of its kind since the start of this year.
If confirmed, however, it would mark the first time in more than four years that the North has fired a medium-range ballistic missile.
Pyongyang has maintained a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range ballistic missile testing since November 2017, despite leader Kim Jong-un saying in 2019 that he no longer felt bound by such restrictions.
North Korea earlier this month said it may consider restarting "all temporarily-suspended activities," possibly suggesting a resumption of its nuclear and long-range missile testing.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in earlier said if the North has in fact fired an intermediate range missile, the North can be considered to have "moved closer to scrapping the moratorium."
The State Department spokesperson urged North Korea to engage in dialogue.
"We stand with the international community to call on the DPRK to refrain from further provocations and engage in sustained and substantive dialogue," the spokesperson said. "Our commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remains ironclad."
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 30, 2022



10. Moon says North Korea’s latest missile launch ‘breach of UN security council resolution’

As are all other short range, medium range, and intermediate range ballistic missiles.

Moon says North Korea’s latest missile launch ‘breach of UN security council resolution’
koreaherald.com · by Yim Hyun-su · January 30, 2022
Published : Jan 30, 2022 - 12:02 Updated : Jan 30, 2022 - 15:16
President Moon Jae-in speaks during a visit to a COVID-19 diagnostic kit factory in Cheongju on Sunday. (Yonhap)
President Moon Jae-in has said that North Korea’s launch of an “intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM)” on Sunday morning amounts to a “breach of UN Security Council resolutions" and a “challenge” to the international community’s efforts to ensure peace on the Korean peninsula.

In an emergency National Security Council meeting, Moon made the remarks as he called on Pyongyang to stop adding pressure and tension and return to the dialogue table, the presidential office said.

If the missile launched on Sunday is an IRBM, it can be understood that the North is now close to breaking the moratorium despite having shown intentions for dialogue and keeping the promise to halt intercontinental ballistic missile tests in recent years, Moon also added.

“President Moon also drew a parallel to 2017 when tension was heightened on the Korean Peninsula when the launch of an IRBM was followed by the launch of an ICBM,” the Blue House said.

Sunday’s launch marks the seventh round of weapons launched by Pyongyang within this year, just four days after the North fired what it said to be surface-to-surface tactical guided missiles on Thursday.

By Yim Hyun-su (hyunsu@heraldcorp.com)



11. Women in the Workplace in North Korea

Conclusion:

Despite supposed “efforts” by the state to bridge gaps in gender equality, women in North Korea have little autonomy over their own lives. In the workplace, they are discriminated against and have no say or power in what they desire to achieve. They face a gender hierarchy and a gendered division of labor. North Korean women face numerous barriers, such as the fear of persecution by regime officials, lack of access to the outside world, and prohibitions on the freedom of speech. The international community must continue to amplify the voices of North Korean women, send outside information to the North Korean people, and scrutinize North Korea’s continued violations of human rights. Gender equality cannot be achieved if all do not come together.


Women in the Workplace in North Korea
1/28/2022
 

By Shruti Nallappa, former HRNK Research Intern
Edited by Raymond Ha, HRNK Director of Operations and Research

January 28, 2022

Across the world, women are often marginalized, discriminated against, and suffer from harmful gender norms. North Korea is no exception. While the country may be secretive, it cannot hide the fact that life for women in North Korea is brutal and challenging.

The North Korean Government’s Discourse on Women’s Rights
According to Kim and Easley, “North Korea references gender equality in its socialist constitution, but the de facto social and legal circumstance that women face in the country are far below the de jure status they are purported to enjoy.”[1] While North Korea passed the Women’s Right Act in 2010 in response to international criticism, the actual implementation of the law is questionable. In 2017, at the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women, North Korea’s representatives indignantly refused to provide details on rape, sexual assault, and violence against women when asked about measures taken to address the UN Commission of Inquiry’s 2014 findings of serious human rights violations committed against women who were forcibly returned from China.[2]
 
By referencing gender equality in its laws, North Korea can attempt to mask the reality of what its women face daily. Actions and declarations that purport to ensure better treatment of women by North Korea are solely for maintaining an image on the international stage.
 
Workplace Hierarchy and Lack of Control over Career Choice
“No ajumma should become a manager. […] [To control the workers], the managers do not let workers talk, and they speak in vulgar language.”
- Female Worker from North Hamgyong Province, Escaped in 2017[3]
 
Since Kim Jong-un’s rise to power, women’s issues have frequently appeared in policy discussions. North Korea has advocated for women to take an active role in the official labor force. However, evidence has shown that a gendered division of labor persists in the form of a “male-official labor and female-unofficial labor dichotomy.”[4]
 
Cho, Yee, and Yi report that the formal economy incentivizes women to exit into the informal economy. State-designated jobs are characterized by gendered divisions of labor. Women are sent to “low-paying fields that require ‘feminine traits.’”[5] This gendered division of labor shapes women’s career preferences. In Cho, Yee, and Yi’s interviews with women who escaped North Korea, most answered teacher, doctor, nurse, and accountant when asked about career preferences.[6] The gendered division of labor in North Korea is a perfect example of the power of harmful societal and gender norms.
 
Single women must use bribes, come up with medical excuses, or fake marriages if they want to leave their state-allocated “official” jobs and participate in the informal market. Married women typically leave their official jobs after marriage and then participate in the market.[7] In addition to being restrained from working in the market to earn a living, women in North Korea also face a strict workplace hierarchy. Older male managers tend to control young female workers. The gender hierarchy coincides with an age hierarchy.[8] Women in North Korea are thus not able to freely voice their opinions or fully participate in the formal economy. These structures perpetuate and reinforce existing inequalities.

Conclusion
Despite supposed “efforts” by the state to bridge gaps in gender equality, women in North Korea have little autonomy over their own lives. In the workplace, they are discriminated against and have no say or power in what they desire to achieve. They face a gender hierarchy and a gendered division of labor. North Korean women face numerous barriers, such as the fear of persecution by regime officials, lack of access to the outside world, and prohibitions on the freedom of speech. The international community must continue to amplify the voices of North Korean women, send outside information to the North Korean people, and scrutinize North Korea’s continued violations of human rights. Gender equality cannot be achieved if all do not come together.

Shruti Nallappa is an M.A. Candidate at the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University.


[1] Kim Sea-Young and Leif-Eric Easley, “The Neglected North Korean Crisis: Women's Rights,” Ethics & International Affairs 35.1 (2021): 19–29.
[2] Heather Barr, “Don't be fooled by North Korea's denials on women's rights,” Human Rights Watch, November 21, 2017. Accessed October 29, 2021. https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/11/21/dont-be-fooled-north-koreas-denials-womens-rights.
[3] Cho Jeong-ah, Yee Ji-Sun, and Yi Hee-Young, Daily Lives of North Korean Women and Gender Politics (Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification), 33.
[4] Ibid., 29.
[5] Ibid., 29–30.
[6] Ibid., 30.
[7] Ibid.
[8] Ibid., 33.



12. North Korea Is Preparing to Confront the US in 2022

If Kim is executing his version of maximum pressure then he must not be allowed to succeed. We must defend against the appeasers who will give away the farm to get Kim to stop testing his systems.

And we should not forget the benefit we receive through intelligence analysis of every one of these missile tests.

Excerpt:

The Biden administration has presented an updated nuclear policy that will reduce the importance of nuclear weapons within Washington’s national security strategy. In November 2021, Biden and Xi Jinping agreed during their virtual summit to launch a series of high-level arms control talks. This shows that the Biden presidency is becoming more and more conscious of the value of arms control agreements in restraining global nuclear arms competition. Biden and Kim might be also interested in the establishment of an arms control framework on the Korean Peninsula – an attractive entry point for future negotiations, which can be the basic foundation of the long-term denuclearization process on the Korean Peninsula. In the long term, Washington might benefit a lot from such a framework. Multilateral nuclear arms control measures could prove a useful tool to reduce the arms race between regional actors – namely North Korea, China, South Korea, and Japan – and control the proliferation of nuclear weapons through the reduction of capabilities and assets in the region.
North Korea Is Preparing to Confront the US in 2022

Kim Jong Un will likely conduct more advanced weapons tests this year in his own version of “maximum pressure.” 
thediplomat.com · by Sang-soo Lee · January 29, 2022
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Since Pyongyang rejected the Biden administration’s proposal of diplomatic talks as insufficient to entice Kim Jong Un back to the negotiating table, North Korea seems to have recalibrated its strategy in dealing with the United States. While the North’s end of year report conspicuously condensed the outcome of its review on foreign policy and replaced Kim’s New Year’s Day address, it is expected that North Korea will conduct more advanced weapons tests and hold military parades to draw full attention from the U.S. and the international community in the upcoming months. This can be seen as North Korea’s own style of a “maximum pressure” strategy, meant to change the United States’ fundamental policy toward the country – what Pyongyang calls the “hostile policy” – before restoring the talks.
North Korea’s 2022 Security and Foreign Policy
Despite the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong Un’s ascension to power last year, he did not deliver a New Year’s Day address in 2022. While North Korean state media reported the results of the five-day plenary meeting of the Workers’ Party Eighth Central Committee on December 27-31, it is puzzling that Pyongyang did not share details on its foreign policy and strategy for 2022. It just said that the meeting reviewed “principled issues” and relevant strategic directions to cope with the rapidly changing international political situation.
Many experts said the absence of an announcement on North Korea’s foreign policy direction could be seen as providing “strategic flexibility” or room to maneuver in the uncertain external environment. Considering the upcoming events, the Beijing Winter Games in February and the South Korean presidential election in March, there are many uncertainties in the region. The possibility of military conflicts in Ukraine and Taiwan cannot be ruled out this year either. However, those upcoming events will have only a limited impact on determining North Korea’s approach to external affairs. China is likely to turn a blind eye to North Korea’s further missile tests if it stays silent during the Olympics. In addition, whoever the next South Korean president is, the foundation of Seoul’s approach to Pyongyang will not change without Washington’s approval.

As a result, Pyongyang might have already evaluated the impacts of future external affairs and set its direction on the foreign policy by taking a “frontal breakthrough” and “strong to strong” strategy to deal with the U.S. and South Korea. Thus, while it is strategically hidden from public reports, North Korea has already prepared its military action plans, such as a series of future missile and possibly even nuclear tests in response to U.S. sanctions, the upcoming South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, and the potential victory of South Korean main opposition presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol in the election.
North Korea has already tested its missile capabilities six times this month, signaling Pyongyang’s clear intention to follow through with Kim’s 2021 pledge of strengthening the national military capability. Pyongyang will continue carrying out more missile tests in the coming months to demonstrate advancements in its missile technologies. Kim believes that maximum pressure by demonstrating powerful nuclear and missile weapons might be the only way to push the U.S. to make concessions.
A Full Speed “Frontal Breakthrough”
Amid the deadlocked nuclear talks and the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, this year is especially important for Kim. He will need to show his strong leadership on the 110th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung, the country’s founder, and the 80th birth anniversary of Kim Jong Il, Kim’s father, which are coming up in April and February, respectively. At the plenary session in December, Kim mainly focused on delivering his messages on the development of North Korea’s rural and agricultural sector in a bid to revive his country’s crippled economy, which has been worsened by a brutal combination of U.N.-led economic sanctions, extreme anti-pandemic measures, and natural disasters since early 2020. Kim’s hands, however, are tied as to the economy as there is no long-term plan he can follow to tackle the country’s devastating food shortages without undercutting his self-reliance approach, as aggressive anti-pandemic measures have completely cut North Korea off from the world since early 2020. It is believed that the only long-term solution for the regime to improve its economic situation is reopening the border with China or resuming nuclear negotiations with the U.S. to lift existing sanctions.
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Given this situation, after two years of a self-imposed border lockdown, two cargo trains from North Korea crossed the border from Sinuiju to Dandong on January 16-17 to receive aid and basic necessities from China. Pyongyang might have decided to restart trade with China to recover its economic situation since disinfection facilities have already been installed on the border area. Furthermore, the resumption of aid from China could make it possible for Pyongyang to push forward its maximal nuclear strategy this year, as it will cushion North Korea against the impact of further sanctions. As the hegemonic race between the two superpowers – the United States and China – is most likely to intensify in the future, North Korea will seek more close cooperation with China to revive its economy by resuming trade, while carrying out “tit-for-tat” responses to U.S. sanctions.
Even if Kim needs negotiations to find a long-term solution for North Korea’s economic difficulties, he will continue focusing on building his strong nuclear power at least until the global pandemic crisis is over. The current situation will prevent North Korean officials from meeting foreign delegations either in the country or abroad. Given the circumstances, therefore, this year is a perfect time for the regime to exert maximum pressure on the U.S. to achieve what it wants prior to restoring talks, as the U.S. is now struggling with Russia in Eastern Europe and with China in East Asia.
Showcase of New Advanced Weapons
Starting off with its first hypersonic missile test of the year on January 5, North Korea has conducted six rounds of missile tests, including hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles, and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMS), this month alone. Among others, the North’s second hypersonic missile test on January 11 proved that it had successfully developed an advanced version of the hypersonic missile it first tested in September of last year. After that, North Korea fired its KN series of SRBMs on January 14 and 18 in the wake of U.S. sanctions over the missile tests. Pyongyang has angrily criticized the U.S. and South Korea for having a “double standard” toward the military activities conducted by the two Koreas. North Korea deems the South Korea-U.S. joint military drills as proof of “hostile intent” that critically threatens the North’s security while reiterating that its missile tests are for its “self-defense,” not for targeting other countries. Pyongyang justifies its missile tests as part of its policy of responding to strength with strength.
As 2022 continues, North Korea will likely show off even more advanced missile weapons in order to fulfil the pledges made during the Eighth Party Congress last year. In this context, North Korea will test new destructive weapons, and they will not be the typical SRBMs the North launched this month. Looking back on the missiles North Korea test-fired before the nuclear talks began in 2018 and the missiles it displayed in a military parade last year, North Korea’s advanced series of “Pukkuksong” missiles are expected to be showcased this year. North Korea will likely test what it has been developing in recent years, including the improved version of its Pukkuksong-2 solid-fuel ballistic missile and the newest Pukkuksong-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
Furthermore, North Korea’s state media recently reported that the country will reconsider Kim’s self-moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). With this in mind, Pyongyang will also consider proving its strengthened long-range missile capabilities by showing off its miniaturized and multiple nuclear warheads, if necessary. If all these new missile technologies bear fruit, the U.S. missile defense system will be vulnerable to North Korea’s new intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Prospects for Future Negotiations
Back in 2019, Kim said he no longer felt bound by his self-moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests while reiterating that he will never come back to the negotiating table unless the U.S. makes concessions. For North Korea, this means lifting the U.S.-led economic sanctions, withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea, and suspending the joint South Korea-U.S military drills.
In this regard, what the U.S. and South Korea should bear in mind is that it is not the right time to activate their backchannels to restore talks with North Korea and seek a détente. Pyongyang is not ready to return negotiations. Nevertheless, U.S. President Joe Biden must reassess his administration’s strategic patience policy, as just waiting for Pyongyang to return to diplomatic talks runs the risk of North Korea eventually reaching an untouchable level of nuclear capacity. Furthermore, South Korea will also beef up its military capability to deal with nuclear threats from North Korea, in particular as the conservative presidential candidate, Yoon, has claimed the right to conduct a pre-emptive strike on the North. Accordingly, the situation as it stands could push the existing arms race on the Korean Peninsula into a dangerous end game.
The Biden administration has presented an updated nuclear policy that will reduce the importance of nuclear weapons within Washington’s national security strategy. In November 2021, Biden and Xi Jinping agreed during their virtual summit to launch a series of high-level arms control talks. This shows that the Biden presidency is becoming more and more conscious of the value of arms control agreements in restraining global nuclear arms competition. Biden and Kim might be also interested in the establishment of an arms control framework on the Korean Peninsula – an attractive entry point for future negotiations, which can be the basic foundation of the long-term denuclearization process on the Korean Peninsula. In the long term, Washington might benefit a lot from such a framework. Multilateral nuclear arms control measures could prove a useful tool to reduce the arms race between regional actors – namely North Korea, China, South Korea, and Japan – and control the proliferation of nuclear weapons through the reduction of capabilities and assets in the region.
thediplomat.com · by Sang-soo Lee · January 29, 2022




13. North Korean officials import luxury foods ahead of Lunar New Year

So can we expect a test for the Lunar New year with the intent to try to distract the Korean people in the north from their suffering? This at the same time as the elite are bending the rules for their own pleasure. The themes and messages for an influence campaign are actually written by Kim's own actions. We should be having a field day with this.

North Korean officials import luxury foods ahead of Lunar New Year
People complain that authorities bend the rules so officials can properly eat on Seollal.
Ships arriving from China carrying fruits, oil and sugar are entering North Korea across the Yalu River border to deliver the goods ahead of Seollal, the Lunar New Year holiday, but sources told RFA the goods were for officials of the State Security Department, not for the general public.
Seollal, along with the harvest holiday Chuseok, are the two most important holidays in both North and South Korea. During both holidays families gather together and pay respects to their ancestors while sharing a huge feast.
North Korea is suffering from severe food shortages, mostly due to the closure of the border with China since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in Jan. 2020. Though rail freight between the two countries resumed last week, many of the key ingredients are still in short supply.
But those with power and privilege will use it to make sure their family can have a proper feast, the sources said.
“Since the beginning of last week in Ryongychon Port, which faces Donggang Port in China, small and medium-sized vessels have been frequently going to and from both ports across the Yalu River, at the point where it joins the West Sea,” an official from a trading agency told RFA’s Korean Service Wednesday, using a Korean term for the sea between China and the Korean peninsula, known internationally as the Yellow Sea.
“These ships are mainly loaded with fruits, cooking oil and sugar, and all the ships … belong to the General Bureau of Border Security, under the Ministry of State Security,” said the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons.
The authorities gave special permission to the trading companies run by the bureau to import supplies needed for Seollal so that officials of the Ministry of State Security could celebrate properly, he said.
“The ships are able to go into Donggang in the morning and load up on boxes of food, then return to Ryongchon around 4 p.m. Before they can unload their goods, the ships must go through a thorough quarantine and disinfection procedure before the food can be put in storage,” the official said.
“After a week, the food is put on freight vehicles and transported to each region and supplied as gifts to officials from the ministry in each region,” he said.
A source living near the port in Donggang said time is of the essence when North Korean ships arrive.
“The workers from the Donghang food company load the fruits and food boxes onto the boats, which immediately leave once loading is finished and the items covered,” he said.
From there, they travel to Ryongchon to be unloaded by workers at the pier.
“All the goods coming into Ryongchon ahead of Seollal are covered with a blue screen when we unload it, so the general public cannot recognize the contents,” a third source working at the pier in Ryongchon told RFA on condition of anonymity.
“But the people here in Ryongchon are all aware that the ships are carrying holiday goods for officials of the Ministry of State Security,” the worker said.
Residents are resentful that they make special exceptions for themselves while the people suffer, the dockworker said.
“The authorities closed off the border under the pretext of COVID-19, but they have no qualms reopening maritime trade so they can get their holiday gifts.”
Translated by Leejin Jun. Written in English by Eugene Whong.


14. <Inside N. Korea> Many people are released from prison under the Great Amnesty.


The "Great Amnesty" will add the burden of malnourished prisoners having to be fed by their starving families.

<Inside N. Korea> Many people are released from prison under the Great Amnesty. Tensions among authorities over recidivism, retribution and hunger. Preparation for intensive surveillance at an early stage. Families question, "How can we feed malnourished prisoners?"
(Photo) An exterior view of Samdung Prison on the outskirts of Pyongyang City. It is said that the prisoners are engaged in cement production inside. Photographed in August 2009 by Kim Dong-chul (ASIAPRESS).
The Kim Jong-un regime is planning a great amnesty (special pardon) starting at the end of January. As a result, many people will be released from prison after their sentences are reduced, but the authorities are concerned about social disorder caused by recidivism, retaliation, and poverty and are focusing on monitoring and management plans for the released prisoners (Kang Ji-won).
North Korea's Standing Committee of the Supreme People's Assembly (parliament) announced a decree on January 20 to implement a great amnesty starting January 30 for the 110th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung and the 80th anniversary of the birth of Kim Jong Il.
The authorities are growing tense over how to manage the large number of "ex-offenders" being released from prison due to the great amnesty. According to our reporting partner, who lives in the northern region, the authorities have notified agencies and companies of the following to monitor, and control released prisoners thoroughly.
• Regardless of the occupation before imprisonment, released prisoners will be managed according to their crimes.
• Released prisoners to be placed in enterprises shall be selected by the labour department of the people's committee (local government), and all released prisoners shall be assigned one Party member to carry out ideological education projects so that they can adapt to society.
• Suppose the released prisoners make trouble or fail to settle in society. In that case, the Party leadership, administrative cadres, security personnel in charge, and security guards (secret police) will be responsible jointly.
• Provide a week's supply of food for released prisoners to live.
◆ Thorough monitoring of released prisoners
Our reporting partner who conducted the research explained that in areas close to the Chinese border, many people are imprisoned for "border-related crimes," and monitoring and control are strict, as described below.
"Those who were caught in cases related to China, such as smuggling, aiding and abetting North Korean defectors, human trafficking, drug trafficking, etc., were designated for exceptional management, with safety officers (police officers) in charge to make preliminary preparations for monitoring and supervision with the companies to which they were assigned.
To tell the truth, the city proposed to assign the released prisoners to construction organizations such as the "Assault Team" and the "Construction Team" for group management. Still, the Workers' Party Committee opposed the idea and they ended up being assigned to dispersed units. This was to prevent the large number of people who had been legally sanctioned from retaliating, forming gangs, causing incidents, or defecting."
It is clear that the authorities are on edge in maintaining social order.
◆ The issue is how to feed the released prisoners.
There is another problem that has been bothering the authorities. That is, how to feed a large number of released prisoners. The majority of North Korean residents are currently struggling to make ends meet. Those who are released from prison while their families could not afford them says:
"At the moment, it is decided that the released prisoners will be given food for a week. It is obvious that those who are released from prison are malnourished, and their families are naturally worried about how they will survive, and they are becoming increasingly concerned."
Kim Jong-un regime has also conducted a great amnesty in August 2018, the 70th anniversary of the country's founding, but there was confusion as most of the people released from the indoctrination camps with poor conditions were malnourished, had infections, or had nowhere to go.
※ASIAPRESS contacts its reporting partners in North Korea through smuggled Chinese mobile phones.

15. How do N. Koreans celebrate Lunar New Year?

Will they be celebrating an ICBM launch or a nuclear test?

How do N. Koreans celebrate Lunar New Year?
m.koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · January 28, 2022
How do N. Koreans celebrate Lunar New Year?
Published : Jan 30, 2022 - 16:01
Updated : Jan 30, 2022 - 16:01
A view of North Korea‘s Kaesong City from the South Korean side of the demilitarized zone (Flickr - Anthony Surace)
The Lunar New Year or Seollal is one of the two most important and celebrated traditional holidays in South Korea.

But, though both halves of the peninsula share many aspects of culture, nearly 77 years of division between the two Koreas have led to divergent holiday traditions.

In North Korea, the significance of socialist holidays, including the birth anniversaries of the late leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, the national foundation day on Sept. 9, and the party foundation day on Oct. 10, far outweighs traditional holidays.

So how do North Korean people welcome the Year of the Tiger?

Not surprisingly, North Koreans begin celebrating the Lunar New Year’s day by showing their loyalty to the Kim family. And later in the day, people observe ancestral rites, enjoy family meals, and watch art performances embedded with messages praising the preeminence of leader Kim Jong-un and the ruling party’s leadership.

In the morning, North Korean people lay flowers and pay respect to the statues or the portraits of the late North Korean leaders, Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-Il.

Pyongyang residents visit the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun where the embalmed bodies of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il are enshrined, and climb up Mansu Hill to bow down to giant bronze statues of the late leaders.

But there is no mass movement to visit family in North Korea, mainly as there is no freedom of movement. The scene is quite a contrast to its neighbor China, where the world’s largest annual migration usually takes place across the country each Lunar New Year.

North Korean people are required to have a travel permit to travel outside their residence. In addition, the Kim Jong-un regime strengthened restrictions on domestic travel in the name of preventing and controlling outbreaks of COVID-19.

Rather, North Korean people quietly celebrate the Lunar New Year, watching art performances including music concerts, “revolutionary operas,” and circuses held in each region, according to the previous state media reports.

The country’s leader Kim Jong-un is no exception. For the last two years, Kim and his staunch aides watched a celebratory concert filled with songs and performances that chanted the eulogy of the greatness of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea and the North Korean leader, and envisioned a socialist utopia.

The songs such as “We Will Go Along the Road of Loyalty,” and “We‘ll Travel One Road Forever” resonated in the concert hall, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported last January.

“The audience keenly felt once again the truth that our country and people have (an) immensely bright future despite whatever hardship and difficulties in the road of advance(ment) as long as the General Secretary leads the Party.”

Unlike South Korea, North Korean people still put a premium on New Year’s Day as the late founder Kim Il-sung disregarded the custom of celebrating the Lunar New Year as a “vestige of a feudal society” and designated the solar calendar’s New Year’s Day as an official holiday in 1946.

After the Korean War in 1953, the Lunar New Year tradition had disappeared without a trace.

But the late leader Kim Jong-il in 2003 instructed people to celebrate the 3-day Lunar New Year holidays instead of New Year’s Day, as part of his sweeping ideological campaign to promote the “Korean Nation-First Spirit.”

The Kim Jong-il regime accentuated the significance of the Lunar New Year as the traditional holiday of inheriting the national tradition.

Against that backdrop, North Korean people still enjoy traditional folk games including kite flying, top-spinning, jegichagi, and the yunnori board game during the Lunar New Year’s holidays.

This year’s calendar shows that North Korea has designated one public holiday for the Lunar New Year. People take a day off on the day, but they should make up the time by additionally working on Sundays, according to a database provided by South Korea’s Unification Ministry.

But people would still anticipate the Lunar New Year, as the Kim Jong-un regime has provided food and daily necessities on public holidays.

By Ji Da-gyum (dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)
m.koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · January 28, 2022






V/R
David Maxwell
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Foundation for Defense of Democracies
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V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

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