February 7, 2020 -- Snowless Prairie
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Unlike previous winters, there's not much snow on the prairies of western North Dakota, easing the risk of spring flooding in the Missouri River basin. But March is yet to come! This photo is from WDEA's Wise Roads weather station "Medicine Hole," northwest of Killdeer.
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Coal Creek Station in Financial Trouble
Employees of North Dakota's largest coal-fired power plant were informed last week the plant has been losing money, and its owners are looking for a way to resolve its financial challenges.
Coal Creek Station, located midway between Washburn and Underwood, has two units with a combined electric generating capacity of 1,100 megawatts. It is owned and operated by Great River Energy based in Maple Grove, Minnesota.
Company spokeswoman Therese LaCanne said "the plant has operated at a significant financial loss,” according to an
article this week in the Bismarck Tribune. A recent quarterly meeting with plant employees prompted rumors to circulate about its potential closure. But despite the financial losses, LaCanne told the Tribune that GRE has not made a decision to shut down either of the generating units at the power plant.
The plant's financial difficulties are attributable to changes in Midwest energy markets. GRE is a member of MISO - Midwest Independent System Operator - which controls the dispatch of electric generating facilities throughout its
footprint. Construction of additional wind farms, which are generally first to be dispatched when the power is available, have eroded the electric market for coal-fired generation. The availability of cheap natural gas to run combustion turbines has also impacted the coal industry.
MISO generating capacity resources currently consist of about 71 gigawatts of natural gas powered generation, 61 GW of coal and about 17 GW of wind power.
Click
here to learn more about Coal Creek Station. Click
here to read about GRE power generation.
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Tribe Requests Subpoena in DAPL Case
Following in the footsteps of regulators in Iowa, the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe has asked the North Dakota Public Service Commission to issue a subpoena to Dakota Access LLC for the production of documents used in developing its plan to expand the Dakota Access Pipeline.
Standing Rock, which has intervenor status in DAPL's application to expand the crude pipeline's capacity to up to 1.1 million barrels per day, filed its
request with the PSC yesterday. Among other things, the tribe requests:
- The transient surge analysis and recommended mitigation measures that Dakota Access commissioned for the DAPL Capacity Expansion which was produced to the Illinois Commerce Commission in October 2019.
- Hydraulic profiles of the 30-inch pipeline system within North Dakota for the 570,000 bbl/day base case and the 1.1 million bbl/day expansion case, to show how the DAPL Capacity Expansion will increase operating pressures throughout the system.
- An identification of all high-consequence areas (HCAs) by milepost within North Dakota and Dakota Access's plans for periodically reassessing the integrity of its pipeline in areas where an inadvertent release would impact those HCAs.
- Dakota Access's analysis of estimated oil release volumes and locations based on its transient flow modeling and the pipeline's hydraulic profile.
- Documents to show whether Dakota Access has developed a DAPL-specific Integrity Management Plan that complies with PHMSA regulations and industry standards.
The Iowa Utilities Board recently submitted a similar request to Dakota Access (see
Jan. 17 newsletter). The IUB asked for an an explanation of the effect that a drag-reducing additive will have on the longevity of pipeline components, whether the additive will increase the risk of a spill, and whether the increased flow will increase the amount of oil released if a spill occurs. The IUB also wants to know the current maximum operating pressure of the pipeline and the proposed maximum actual operating pressure after completion of the improvements.
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EIA Lowers Long-term Oil Price Outlook
Revision Will Impact North Dakota Production
A reduction in the projected price for domestic oil producers in the coming decades will have an impact on the drilling plans of North Dakota oil producers.
That was the message delivered by Justin Kringstad, director of the ND Pipeline Authority, in a presentation to members of the ND
EmPower Commission this week. Kringstad told the group that thanks in part to growing production in the nation's shale oil plays, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) made a substantial reduction in its projected oil price in its
2020 Annual Energy Outlook.
Click
here to listen to Kringstad's comments.
Kringstad expects North Dakota production will grow less slowly than it would have under the previous oil price scenario, but said it will also depend on advancements in oil recovery technology. He pointed to a "step change" in initial production rates for new wells the past couple years, which are now averaging around 2,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Click
here to listen to Kringstad's comments.
Regardless of oil prices, Kringstad expects North Dakota oil production will continue many decades into the future. He noted that the state's top producer Continental Resources has pegged the state's recoverable reserves at 30-to-40 billion barrels. Production to date is just over 5 billion barrels.
Click
here to see Kringstad's slide presentation.
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N. Rockies Snowpack Normal So Far
Reduced Runoff Should Lessen Flood Risk
State officials in North Dakota are urging residents to prepare for the potential for spring flooding, but if the current trend continues, the risk should be minimal in the Missouri River Basin.
The US Army Corps of Engineers current
analysis shows snowpack in the Northern Rocky Mountains is exactly 100% of the 30-year average. Barring heavy snowfall later this month or in March or April, the Corps says Missouri Basin runoff would amount to only about 60% of the near-record 60.1 million acre-feet last spring that led to high water up and down the river all summer and fall.
The Corps' forecast could change. Mountain snowpack normally peaks in mid-April, and according to the National Weather Service, there's a better-than-average chance of above-normal precipitation for the month of February. The current
NOAA Outlook indicates temperatures in most of Montana and Wyoming are likely to be below normal and precipitation is likely to be above normal the remainder of the month.
The risk of spring flooding is greater in eastern North Dakota where average
snow depths are running between one and two feet.The North Dakota Department of Emergency Services is coordinating a unified approach to flood preparedness, response and recovery efforts (See
Dec. 6 WDEA newsletter).
Click
here for a Minot Daily News article about the outlook for runoff in the Souris River Basin.
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UND to Host Oil Drilling Simulator
The University of North Dakota Petroleum Engineering Department will soon host the world’s largest – and only – full scale oil drilling and completion lab.
“This drilling and completion laboratory, when fully completed, will be a $40-million experimental facility that does not exist anywhere else in the world,” said Vamegh Rasouli, Continental Resources Distinguished Professor of Petroleum Engineering and department chair.
Petroleum engineering students will be able to simulate general drilling and deep drilling, along with testing different rocks, including shale. They will also be able to simulate oil reservoir conditions, including temperature, pressure and fluid flow. Doctoral students will be able to perform research that benefits the state of North Dakota.
After an agreement is signed, the rig will be housed inside the old Minnkota Power Plant building in Grand Forks, which has the height and space to accommodate the 26-foot-tall derrick. The ND Oil & Gas Research Council approved $2.78 million in financial support for the project over three years. Industry and other universities will be welcome to use the lab, Rasouli said, adding that it will also allow UND to apply for external research funding.
“For example, if a company wants to validate a bit-drilling mud design to drill in a given formation, we can conduct real, full-scale drilling to confirm the designed rate of penetration,” Rasouli said. “There are so many applications. We can serve students, perform research and help industry.”
Click
here to read more about the drilling simulator lab.
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State Narrowing Focus on Workforce Challenge
Efforts to Concentrate on Areas with Greatest Impact
North Dakota has an estimated 30,000 job openings, far more jobs than it has people to fill them, and the state Commerce Department wants to zero in on effective solutions that will deliver the biggest bang for the buck.
Commerce Commissioner Michelle Kommer told members of the EmPower Commission this week the state's people shortage is magnified by its skills gap - many of the state's residents who are looking for work lack the skills to fill high demand jobs. Kommer said the most effective way to reduce the skills gap is attracting and training high school students, but the challenge is "changing a 40-year-old paradigm for parents and students alike that you have to get a four-year degree to get a 'good job.'"
To address the need, Commerce proposed a $30 million funding package in the 2019 Legislature to replicate the Bismarck Public School system's
Career Academy, which delivers technical skills training. Unfortunately Kommer said although the plan was good, it received little support in the legislature. She said workforce developers will be better prepared to pitch the proposal again next session.
Click
here to listen to Kommer's comments.
Another problem that needs work is occupational licensing. Kommer said North Dakota's licensing framework ranks among the top 25% most regulated in the country. It can pose a barrier to employee recruitment if the individual must secure a state license to work, or if their spouse is unable to get a job because they are not licensed to perform their occupation in North Dakota.
"I think it's fair to say we have unnecessary barriers to employment built into our occupational licensing framework today," Kommer said.
North Dakota has the highest labor force participation rate in the nation at 71.5 percent, but she said even if every age category in the state was employed at that rate, it would add just 13,000 people to the labor force. That means the state's needs to attract new workers to the state, so Kommer said Commerce is working on a marketing plan that will try to recruit former North Dakota residents to move back to the state. She said the state's
Workforce Development Council also plans to form a subcommittee to come up with ideas to communicate and educate the public about its workforce recruitment strategies.
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Williston API Chili Cookoff Tomorrow
The Williston Basin API Chapter will hold its 39th Annual Chili Cook-off Saturday, February 8 at the Grand Williston Hotel.
The cookoff is one of two major fundraising activities for the Williston Chapter. More than 1,100 people attended last year's foodfest which featured 25 different types of chili. The charity event generated more than $60,000.
The money raised goes back into the community in the form of scholarships along with pledges to Giving Hearts Day, Dakota Boy’s Ranch, Boy Scouts, American Cancer Society Relay for Life, Salvation Army, Trinity School, Make-A-Wish, Upper Missouri Ministries and March of Dimes.
The cookoff runs from 3:00 pm - 11:00 pm tomorrow at the Grand Williston Hotel. Click
here for additional details and sponsorship opportunities.
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Write it Down on Your Calendar!
WDEA 2020 Annual Meeting
Get this date on your calendar! The Annual Meeting of the Western Dakota Energy Association will be held:
October 7-8, 2020
The Grand Williston Hotel & Conference Center
Williston, ND
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Facts about the 2020 Census
The goal of the 2020 Census is to count everyone, only once, and in the right place.
What is the census?
- The census is a count of all persons living in the United States that is conducted every 10 years by the federal government and is required by the U.S.Constitution.
- It is used to determine the number of seats each state has in the House of Representatives, how federal and state legislative districts are redrawn and the appropriation of federally-funded programs.
When will Census 2020 be conducted?
- Census Day is April 1, 2020. Data collection will begin on March 28, 2020 and continue through August 2020.
- Households will receive a postcard with instructions for completing the census beginning in March 2020.
Who should respond to the census?
- Everyone! Census postcards are sent to all households in the United States to collect information about each person living in the household.
- The Census Bureau is conducting special counts for populations living in group quarters or who are unsheltered, including homeless, university students, prisoners and others living in institutional settings.
What questions will be asked?
- The census will include 10 questions and take about 10 minutes to complete.
- Name; relationship to householder; phone number; number of persons in the household; age; sex; race; does the person usually stay or live somewhere else?
Are census responses confidential?
- All data is protected under Title 13 of the U.S. Code. Records are confidential for 72 years by law. All Census Bureau employees swear a lifetime oath to protect respondent information. The penalty for wrongful disclosure is up to 5 years imprisonment and/or a fine of $250,000.
- The U.S. Census Bureau will never share a respondent’s personal information with other government agencies.
- Data is only released in summary tables, no individual records are released.
Census counts are used in distributing over $1.8 billion in federal funds per year in North Dakota. This translates to $1,900 per person per year. Those dollars help fund:
- Title 1 grants to educational agencies
- Head Start programs
- Women, Infants and Children (WIC) program
- Transportation (public transit, road rehabilitation and construction)
- Emergency food and shelter
- Health and Human Services programs
Click
here to learn more about North Dakota's Complete Count Committee.
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REGISTRATION NOW OPEN
Williston Basin Petroleum Conference
After a long, cold winter it will be nice to see springtime and the 2020 Williston Basin Petroleum Conference scheduled for Bismarck. Along with green grass and spring temperatures, expect to see another excellent line-up of speakers plus a sold-out trade show.
The new conference
website features opportunities to enhance the participant experience and increase exposure. Registration is now open for the event scheduled for May 19-21. Click
here to register.
The website also features new information and features for exhibitors including an interactive map to allow vendors to select specific booths. Space will fill quickly so conference organizers suggest making plans now.
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Quick Connect
- North Dakota's Bakken gets a new player; Eagle Mountain Energy Partners -- Williston Herald
- Drones to inspect McKenzie Co. roads after storms; aid closure decisions -- Bismarck Tribune
- Ward County voters to decide on sales tax extension for road maintenance -- Minot Daily News
- Shorter school weeks proving successful in Alexander Public School District -- KXMB-TV
- Legacy funds may be used for technical education, Senator Wardner says -- Dickinson Press
- Dickinson school leaders provide state of education report at city luncheon -- Dickinson Press
- Superintendent intends to build elementary school, wait on high school -- Dickinson Press
- New radar system at Williston's new airport will detect severe weather in area -- KFYR-TV
- Williston to build hockey complex using old hangar; fundraising begins -- Williston Herald
- Survey: ND Gov. Doug Burgum among the 10 most liked governors in the U.S. -- KXMB-TV
- North Dakota to hold public meetings on state housing development needs -- Fargo Forum
- North Dakota's Gov. Burgum issues order aimed at American Indian voting -- Associated Press
- Incoming UND president ready to take on research proposal challenge -- Bismarck Tribune
- Minot city leaders get progress update on Souris River flood protection plan -- KFYR-TV
- Data survey: North Dakota motorists have low gas taxes and high travel miles -- KXMB-TV
- Port: Do we want to put more of North Dakota's eggs in the oil revenue basket? -- Fargo Forum
- Bowman area Continental Resources employee bowls perfect 300 game -- Bowman Extra
- Demographic shift: Could Texas become hostile to oil in the next decade? -- Adamantine Energy
- U.S. crude oil and natural gas production increased in 2018, with 10% fewer wells -- EIA
- Wind’s production tax credit receives 12th extension (competitive not) -- Master Resource
- Investigation on activist-driven media platform; funders and relationships -- Energy In Depth
- Fighting Climate Change: Germany will pay utilities billions of euros to phase out coal -- IER
- UN officials infuriated as Donald Trump stands up against climate socialism -- Inside Sources
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Factoid of the Week
The U.S. continues to produce historically high levels of oil and natural gas while increasing exports. Oil production is projected to increase to 14 million barrels per day by 2022, more than doubling in a decade, but then level off, increasing by less than 400,000 bbl/day over the coming decade. Production is projected to decline in the mid-2030s, falling another 500,000 barrels per day over the next decade.
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February 8
Williston
February 11
Bismarck
February 11
Bismarck
February 13
Bismarck
February 13
Bismarck
March 6
Williston
March 16
Bismarck
February 18
Bismarck
February 19-20
Watford City
February 24-27
Bismarck
February 25-26
Dickinson
February 27
Bismarck
March 19-21
Minot
March 27-28
Bismarck
April 21-23
Four Bears - New Town
April 28-30
Watford City
May 19-21
Bismarck
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Oil prices and rig count
February 7, 2020
WTI Crude: $50.32
Brent Crude: $54.47
Natural Gas: $1.86
North Dakota Active Rigs: 54 (unchg)
2/7
/2019
-- 63 rigs
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Geoff Simon
Editor/Executive Director
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