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Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; remember that what you now have was once among the things you only hoped for." 
- Epicurus

“Words are, of course, the most powerful drug used by mankind.”
 - Rudyard Kipling

“I cannot help fearing that men may reach a point where they look on every new theory as a danger, every innovation as a toilsome trouble, every social advance as a first step toward revolution, and that they may absolutely refuse to move at all.”
 - Alexis de Tocqueville




1. North Korea's weapons system test seen as boosting short-range nuclear capabilities
2. U.S. will listen to N. Korea's concerns but only through dialogue: State Dept.
3. Seoul urges Pyongyang to stop provocations, resume dialogue
4. Economy and security risks to be managed by presidential office (South Korea)
5. State Department says Korea is totally safe to visit
6. North's gearing up for military parade
7. North Korea likely to resume show of force to commemorate multiple anniversaries
8. Russian, Chinese warplanes entered S. Korea's air defense zone last month
9. Unification minister holds talks with US nuclear envoy on N. Korea
10. North Korea's nuclear doctrine
11. Going nuclear (nuclear energy in South Korea)
12. US government warns that North Korea is targeting crypto firms
13. Yoon to invite 41,000 for his inauguration ceremony amid eased virus distancing



1. North Korea's weapons system test seen as boosting short-range nuclear capabilities
Just as an aside, my comments here are about recognizing the regime's strategy, understanding it, exposing it, and attacking it. I always consider that RFA (and VOA) is broadcasting into north Korea (as well as South Korea) so I tailor my comments appropriately. 
Though he didn’t know what type of weapon was actually fired, David Maxwell of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington said the weapon was a means for Pyongyang to further its geopolitical strategy.
“This is likely in support of the regime’s political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy to use threats, increased tensions and provocations to gain political and economic concessions,” he told RFA.
“In the context of the regime’s objective to dominate the peninsula, this weapons test supports the development of advanced military capabilities to support warfighting to eventually use force to achieve unification under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. This test serves two purposes: support to blackmail diplomacy and support to warfighting,” Maxwell said.


North Korea's weapons system test seen as boosting short-range nuclear capabilities
Experts said the new missile's military impact was blunted by Pyongyang's inability to miniaturize a warhead.
By RFA’s Korean Service
2022.04.18
North Korea said it tested a new “tactical-guided weapon” on Saturday designed to bolster its nuclear capabilities, although experts questioned how big of a military advance the launch represents when Pyongyang has no miniature warheads.
The state-run Korea Central News Agency said the test was successful and the new weapons system “is of great significance in drastically improving the firepower of the frontline long-range artillery units and enhancing the efficiency in the operation of tactical nukes of the DPRK and diversification of their firepower missions.”
The launch came days before the U.S. and South Korea on Monday began annual joint military exercises, which the North says threatens its sovereignty.
The new weapons system, though classified as long-range artillery by North Korea, is not different from guided missiles, Jeffery Lewis of the California-based Middlebury Institute of International Studies’ East Asia Nonproliferation Project, told RFA’s Korean Service Monday.
“North Korea uses the phrase ‘Hwasong artillery’ to refer to its long-range ballistic missiles. This is probably what the U.S. government calls a ‘close-range ballistic missile’ that is apparently capable of delivering a nuclear warhead about 100 km,” Lewis said.
Photos of the tested weapon appear to show “some kind of heavy rocket artillery or close-range ballistic missile,” Ian Williams of the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) in Washington told RFA.
Williams likened the projectile to the KN-25, a tactical ballistic missile North Korea first tested in July 2019.
“The rhetoric about nuclear fighting capability could be North Korea signaling this rocket is meant to deliver a tactical nuclear weapon. However, we have not seen evidence that North Korea has been able to miniaturize its nuclear weapons to this extent,” he said.
The Pentagon’s description of the new weapon as a “long-range artillery system” was one of many choices, said Ankit Panda of the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Tactical-ballistic missile, close-range ballistic missile, and even long-range artillery system are all reasonable ways of defining this new ‘tactical-guided weapon,’” he told RFA by email
“The main significance of this weapon is its presumptive nuclear weapons delivery role,” said Panda.
The Rand Corporation’s Bruce Benet said having built-in guidance makes a rocket a missile, “so these apparently guided artillery rockets are actually guided artillery missiles.”
Benet also expressed doubts North Korea’s claim that the new missile could carry a nuclear weapon.
“Even if the new missiles did, the North could always have used its KN-23 and other larger missiles to deliver nuclear weapons close to the battlefield, so this new type of missile appears to have more political impact than military impact,” he said.
Though he didn’t know what type of weapon was actually fired, David Maxwell of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington said the weapon was a means for Pyongyang to further its geopolitical strategy.
“This is likely in support of the regime’s political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy to use threats, increased tensions and provocations to gain political and economic concessions,” he told RFA.
“In the context of the regime’s objective to dominate the peninsula, this weapons test supports the development of advanced military capabilities to support warfighting to eventually use force to achieve unification under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. This test serves two purposes: support to blackmail diplomacy and support to warfighting,” Maxwell said.
The U.S. remains open to engagement with North Korea, U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said at a news briefing.
“We have … sought to make very clear to the DPRK that the door to diplomacy is not closed, that it does remain open, but that the DPRK needs to cease its destabilizing actions and instead choose the path of engagement, something it has not yet done,” said Price.
“Unfortunately, it is the DPRK that has failed to respond to our invitations, and instead they've engaged in this series of provocations, including the ICBM launches in recent weeks,” he said.
The U.S. Department of Defense declined to release intelligence assessments but confirmed the weapons test and reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to the defense of its allies in the region.




2. U.S. will listen to N. Korea's concerns but only through dialogue: State Dept.

We must remember that north Korean "concerns" are fundamental to its political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.  

The State Department press briefing transcript is here: https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-april-18-2022/

(LEAD) U.S. will listen to N. Korea's concerns but only through dialogue: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 19, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from a Pentagon spokesperson in last 9 paras; ADDS photo)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, April 18 (Yonhap) -- The United States is willing to listen to any concerns North Korea may have but only if North Korea engages in dialogue, a Department of State spokesperson said Monday, urging Pyongyang to return to diplomacy.
Ned Price also reiterated the North will continue to face consequences until it ceases its escalatory actions.
"We are willing to listen to the full range of the DPRK's concerns, but this can only happen through dialogue and the DPRK has not yet given any concrete indications that it is open to this dialogue," the department spokesperson said in a press briefing, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The remarks come after North Korea said it has successfully conducted a test of a "new tactical guided weapon" that it said will help improve the efficiency of tactical nuclear operations.
"We are closely monitoring the situation on the Korean Peninsula and we have warned of the possibility of additional potential provocations from the DPRK," Price told the press briefing.

Pyongyang has staged more than a dozen rounds of missile tests this year that included its first firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since November 2017.
Price said the U.S., together with its allies and partners, has taken a "series of diplomatic, economic and military measures" to condemn North Korea's recent missile provocations, adding, "Our actions are intended to make clear to the DPRK that its escalatory behavior has consequences. Those consequences will continue as long as the DPRK continues with its provocations."
"These launches, these tests have demonstrated that the DPRK continues to prioritize its WMD and ballistic missile programs at the expense of regional and international security," said Price.
North Korea has avoided denuclearization talks with the U.S. since late 2019. It has also remained unresponsive to any U.S. overtures for dialogue since the Joe Biden administration took office in January 2021.
"We have, in all of those engagements, sought to make very clear to the DPRK that the door to diplomacy is not closed. That it does remain open, but that the DPRK needs to cease its destabilizing actions and instead choose the path of engagement. Something it has not yet done," said Price, referring to U.S. discussions with South Korea, Japan and other allies.
The department official also underscored the importance of engaging with other regional stakeholders, including China.
"We have engaged not only with our close allies -- Japan and the ROK -- but also with other stakeholders, including regional stakeholders and, of course, the PRC is an important regional stakeholder," he said. "It's important that we continue to engage partners like the PRC on this, given that the PRC does wield a good degree of leverage with the DPRK."

Department of Defense Press Secretary John Kirby also called on North Korea to engage in dialogue.
"We continue to call on North Korea to cease these provocations and we consider them provocations, and to be willing to sit down in good faith and have a diplomatic discussion about how we denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, which remains our goal," he said in a press briefing at the Pentagon.
"We still believe, here at the Department of Defense, that the best way to pursue the denuclearization of the peninsula is through diplomacy," he added.
The Pentagon spokesperson said the U.S. was still analyzing North Korea's latest missile test but that its tests are aimed at developing capabilities that will threaten others in the region, including South Korea.
"I think what I would say is North Korea continues to pursue a ballistic missile program and nuclear capabilities that at least we think they believe will help intimidate and threaten our allies and partners in the region, and that includes the rest of the Korean Peninsula," he said when asked to evaluate North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities.
Kirby reaffirmed U.S. commitment to the defense of South Korea and other U.S. allies in the region, saying, "We have significant treaty obligations and we take those obligations seriously."
He also reaffirmed U.S. commitment to dialogue with the North, but said the country remains unresponsive.
"We have said repeatedly that we are willing to sit down with Pyongyang, (with) no preconditions, to begin to have discussions about the denuclearization of the peninsula," said Price.
"To date, rather than showing any willingness to sit down in good faith and negotiate and talk and use diplomacy, the North continues to conduct tests," he added.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 19, 2022


3. Seoul urges Pyongyang to stop provocations, resume dialogue


Seoul urges Pyongyang to stop provocations, resume dialogue | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · April 18, 2022
By Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, April 18 (Yonhap) -- The South Korean government called Monday on North Korea to cease tension-escalating activities and return to dialogue, a day after the report of the secretive country's latest key weapons test.
On Sunday, South Korea's military said the North launched two projectiles into the East Sea the previous day. North Korean state media had earlier reported that the country successfully test-fired a new tactical guided weapon to improve the efficiency of tactical nuclear operations.
"North Korea should immediately halt activities that create tensions on the Korean Peninsula and lead to instability in the regional political situation," Cha Duck-chul, the unification ministry's acting spokesperson, told a regular press briefing. "(We) once again urge (the North) to come out to the dialogue table for peace as soon as possible."
The ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, is closely monitoring the North's moves and making every effort for the management of the situation, Cha said.
The two Koreas held their regular phone call via a liaison hotline as usual Monday morning, he added.
The North's latest launch marked its 13th known flight test of projectiles this year, and the first since it fired what it claimed to be a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile last month.
It also came just before the start of the springtime combined military training of South Korea and the United States.

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · April 18, 2022


4. Economy and security risks to be managed by presidential office (South Korea)


Economy and security risks to be managed by presidential office
Posted April. 19, 2022 07:58,
Updated April. 19, 2022 07:58
Economy and security risks to be managed by presidential office. April. 19, 2022 07:58. herstory@donga.com,likeit@donga.com.
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol stressed on Monday that “a strong economy means strong security and vise versa,” hinting that the National Security Council of the Presidential Office would be directly involved in managing any signs of risk if economic/security issues are found.

Yoon’s remarks came from a policy roundtable titled “Economic and security planning to overcome risks and become a global hub,” which was held at a hotel in Jongno-gu in Seoul by Seoul Forum for International Affairs. The event was attended by former Prime Minister Lee Hong-gu, former Environment Minister Kim Myeong-ja, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, Chairman Koo Ja-yeol of the Korea Trade Association, Chairman Kim Yoon of Samyang Holdings, Professor Kim Byeong-yeon of Seoul National University.

Members of the forum requested Yoon to “form an integrated economic and security taskforce at the Presidential Office that could actively respond to comprehensive global risks.” “Security and economic issues will be dealt by the Prime Minister’s Office but escalated to the Presidential Office via the National Security Council should signs of crisis occur,” replied Yoon.

President-elect Yoon had promised during the presidential campaign to establish an Economic and Security Committee under the Prime Minister’s Office. However, he is considering to directly deal with the issues as global security issues continue to pose threats, such as U.S.- China conflicts and global supply chain issues impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.


5. State Department says Korea is totally safe to visit



Tuesday
April 19, 2022

State Department says Korea is totally safe to visit

 
A sign advertises round-the-clock service in Hongdae, western Seoul, on Tuesday night after social distancing measures were lifted in Korea. [NEWS1]
The U.S. downgraded its travel advisory for Korea, raising hopes of a return of tourists.
 
The U.S. Department of State downgraded its warning about traveling to Korea to Level 1 Monday, which encourages visitors to “exercise normal precautions.”
 
The State Department uses a four-level travel advisory system to warn of potential risks — Level 1: Exercise Normal Precautions, Level 2: Exercise Increased Caution, Level 3: Reconsider Travel, and Level 4: Do Not Travel.
 
Korea has been under the highest Level 4 travel advisory since Feb. 15, which has dramatically dropped to the lowest level.
 
This contrasts with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s own travel recommendation for Korea. It lowered Korea by a single notch to the second-highest level of warning. 
 
On Monday, the CDC moved 90 countries, including Hong Kong, Japan and Korea, from its highest "Level 4: Do Not Travel" list to Level 3. This advises travelers who are not fully vaccinated to "avoid travel" to these destinations due to their "high level of Covid-19."
 
While the CDC’s travel recommendations are based on the impact on travelers' health of disease outbreaks, including the coronavirus, the State Department's comprehensively reflects terrorist activities, security threats and political and economic situations in addition to health.
 
During the Covid-19 pandemic, the State Department changed its travel alerts in line with the CDC's advisories.
 
But in an April 14 notice on its website, the State Department said its travel advisory levels would no longer automatically correlate with the CDC's Covid-19 travel health notice level starting the next week. As a result, it announced it would downgrade all but 10 percent of the 120 countries that are classified Level 4.
 
While the State Department did not specify reasons for the lowered travel advisory for Korea, it is believed the slowed transmission of the virus and the lifting of quarantines for vaccinated arrivals had an effect.
 
Despite signs of normalization of the tourism industry, Korea confirmed its first case of the new Omicron variants XE and XM on Tuesday, in addition to the recent discovery of XL.
 
Health officials on Tuesday confirmed two cases of the so-called “recombinant” Omicron variant XE and one case of XM.
 
One of the XE variant cases was found in a Covid-19 patient who traveled from Britain and was confirmed on March 27, while the other was found in a local patient who tested positive in Korea on March 30.
 
The first XM patient, aged in their 60s, was also detected locally and tested positive on March 27.
 
The XE variant is known to spread about 10 faster than the newer “Stealth” BA.2 mutation, while the characteristics of the XM variant are not yet known.
 
While authorities are conducting contact tracing of the recombinant variant patients, Park Young-joon, head of the epidemiological investigation team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said Tuesday that "the possibility of the XE case and one of the two XM case to have occurred domestically is high enough."
 
Regarding the first case of XL confirmed last week, health authorities said there are 13 more Covid-19 patients who are epidemiologically linked.
 
On Tuesday, Korea’s daily Covid-19 cases jumped to 118,504, more than doubling from the previous day due to increased virus tests. They still showed a continuing downward trend, as cases dropped by 92,228 compared to last Tuesday.
 
The number of Covid-19 patients in critical condition went down by 16 from the day before to 834, while 130 more people died from the virus.
 
On Monday, Korea lifted all restrictions on private gathering sizes and a business curfew, only keeping its mask mandate. From April 25, visitors to indoor venues such as in movie theaters and sports stadiums will be allowed to eat food.
 
The Central Disease Control Headquarters said it plans to overhaul preventive measures in publicly used facilities such as disinfection, ventilation, and minimizing the time of people staying mask-less indoors.
 
In particular, authorities plan to strengthen measures in senior citizen centers and other indoor facilities frequently visited by the elderly.
 
Lee Sang-won, head of the epidemiological investigations team at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters, said although distancing rules have been lifted and the daily Covid-19 case count is decreasing, “the Covid-19 pandemic has not ended,” and urged people to comply with basic preventive measures such as washing hands regularly and wearing masks. 

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]

6. North's gearing up for military parade

We love a parade. The more they are preparing for parades the less they are preparing for war.

Tuesday
April 19, 2022
North's gearing up for military parade

A satellite image of Mirim Parade Training Ground in eastern Pyongyang taken by Planet Labs on April 17 indicates preparations continue for another possible military parade. [38 NORTH]
 
Satellite imagery of a parade training ground in Pyongyang indicates that preparations for a military parade in Pyongyang are ongoing, after a smaller parade took place on Friday.  
 
The military parade is likely to take place on or around April 25, the anniversary of the founding of the North’s armed forces. 
 
Although a larger parade was expected on April 15 – the “Day of the Sun” that marks the birth of regime founder Kim Il Sung and the most important holiday in the North – that date came and went with only a light show in central Pyongyang.
 
Satellite images captured by Planet Labs and cited by Voice of America and U.S.-based North Korea analysis portal 38 North show preparations for military parade are ongoing at Mirim Parade Training Ground in eastern Pyongyang.  
 
The site includes a replica of Kim Il Sung Square, and satellite observations of drills held on those grounds in the past have reliably hinted at a major military parade in the works.
 
The preparations at Mirim Parade Training Ground coincided with changes over the weekend at Kim Il Sung Square in central Pyongyang, where a stage was dismantled and a new structure appeared in front of the viewing stand where Kim Jong-un and senior North Korean leaders observe parades. 
 
Lingering troops and military equipment at Mirim and at the nearby Sunan International Airport showed that those involved in parades had not yet disbursed, suggesting another parade is forthcoming.
 
Satellite images taken on Sunday – two days after the small procession in Kim Il Sung Square – showed thousands of troops and vehicle formations continuing to march in formation. 
 
22 fighter jets, 11 helicopters and support equipment remained lined up near one of the main runways at Sunan International Airport in satellite images taken on Monday, also suggesting they were kept there to participate in a flyover that typically takes place during a major parade.
 

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]

7. North Korea likely to resume show of force to commemorate multiple anniversaries

Yes it is possible.

And every time someone now challenges combined military training, I am going to respond with the questions, "Do you want the ROK.US Combined Forces COmmand to end up like the Russians in Ukraine?" That is what happens when you do not conduct tough, aggressive, sustained, multi-echelon training. 

As Sydney Freedbugh wrote in a Breaking Defense article today, training is the "secret sauce" of US and allied military forces. And as many have said, logistics and the US industrial base is the superpower of the US military.

Excerpts:

"After that, it may rev up its provocations following the South Korea-U.S. combined military drill, scheduled to end on April 28. One of its options could be a submarine-launched ballistic missile."

On Monday, Seoul and Washington kicked off their annual military exercise, which North Korea has denounced as a rehearsal for invasion.

North Korea likely to resume show of force to commemorate multiple anniversaries
The Korea Times · April 19, 2022
This photo, released Sunday, by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, shows the test-firing of what it claims to have been a new tactical guided weapon. EPA-Yonhap

By Kang Seung-woo

There was no massive military parade nor a nuclear test when North Korea celebrated its late founder's birth anniversary, Saturday.

However, Pyongyang's military show of force remains a possibility as the country is set to mark 2022 as a "revolutionary year of celebrations," with its first step likely to be a demonstration of its military hardware later this month, according to diplomatic observers, Tuesday.

North Korea is set to celebrate multiple anniversaries this year. This year is the 10th anniversary of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's reign in power, while the reclusive nation will also be commemorating the 110th and 80th birthday anniversaries of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, the current dictator's grandfather and father, respectively. In addition, the country is scheduled to mark the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army, the predecessor of the present Korean People's Army, on April 25.

Traditionally, North Korea has celebrated the anniversary with a large-scale military show of force in years ending with a five or zero.

Despite predictions that the Kim regime could have shown off its newly developed weapons and even conducted a seventh nuclear test on the occasion of Kim Il-sung's birthday, it instead marked the anniversary in a festive mood, featuring fireworks and a dance performance.

North Korea test-fired a new type of tactical guided weapon on the day, but it was regarded, by experts, as staging a relatively low-intensity provocation.

"On April 25, North Korea is highly expected to hold a large-scale military parade showing off its state-of-art equipment," said Cho Han-beom, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

"However, the North may refrain from launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) anytime soon as its Tongchang-ri missile launch site does not seem fully prepared."

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, presented a similar view.

"The North Korean regime is likely to stage a military parade on a large scale, featuring a range of weapons that it has unveiled so far," he said.

"After that, it may rev up its provocations following the South Korea-U.S. combined military drill, scheduled to end on April 28. One of its options could be a submarine-launched ballistic missile."

On Monday, Seoul and Washington kicked off their annual military exercise, which North Korea has denounced as a rehearsal for invasion.

Park also said North Korea may be cautious about testing an ICBM, or its newest Hwasong-17.

"In March, North Korea claimed it had successfully tested the Hwasong-17, but a relaunch of the missile would be self-contradictory," he said, adding that it may disguise the launch as a military reconnaissance satellite.

On Monday, Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, arrived in Seoul and met with his South Korean counterpart Noh Kyu-duk. Following their meeting, the American envoy said they will strongly respond to North Korea's destabilizing behavior, including a possible nuclear test.

However, it remains to be seen if the North Korean leader pushes ahead with a seventh nuclear test.

"For North Korea, it is not urgent to carry out a nuclear test and the detonation of a nuclear bomb needs to remain a last resort," Cho said.

Park also said it could go either way as North Korea has self-proclaimed itself as a nuclear state.

"Experts are also mixed on whether North Korea needs another nuclear test. Its restoration work at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site means either it's a gesture to pressure South Korea and the U.S. for more concessions in nuclear talks or as part of efforts to miniaturize a nuclear warhead," he added.


The Korea Times · April 19, 2022

8. Russian, Chinese warplanes entered S. Korea's air defense zone last month


Russian, Chinese warplanes entered S. Korea's air defense zone last month
The Korea Times · April 19, 2022
A Chinese PLA Xian H-6 bomber is seen in this undated handout photo made available by the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Oct. 24, 2021, following the incursion of 52 Chinese PLA military aircraft into Taiwan's ADIZ. Russian and Chinese military aircraft entered South Korea's air defense identification zone (KADIZ) without prior notice last month, a Seoul official said Tuesday. EPA-Yonhap 

Russian and Chinese military aircraft entered South Korea's air defense identification zone (KADIZ) without prior notice last month ahead of North Korea's long-range missile launch, a Seoul official said Tuesday.

Two Russian planes flew into the KADIZ, March 24, prompting South Korea's military to scramble fighters to prevent their approach into the country's airspace, according to the official.

The incident came just hours before Pyongyang test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the East Sea ― a launch that ended its years-long moratorium on nuclear weapons and ICBM testing.

The Russian warplanes flew into the KADIZ northwest of South Korea's Ulleung Island in the East Sea at around 11 a.m. and left 30 minutes later.

A day earlier, a Chinese military plane also entered the KADIZ near Ieo Islet, a submerged rock south of South Korea's southern resort island of Jeju. The official said the area was where the air defense identification zones (ADIZ) of South Korea and China overlapped.

An ADIZ is not territorial airspace but is a zoned off area requiring foreign planes to identify themselves to prevent accidental clashes. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · April 19, 2022


9. Unification minister holds talks with US nuclear envoy on N. Korea



Unification minister holds talks with US nuclear envoy on N. Korea
The Korea Times · April 19, 2022
Minister of Unification Lee In-young, right, talks with U.S. Special Representative Sung Kim during the latter's visit to the ministry in Seoul, Tuesday. Courtesy of Ministry of Unification

Unification Minister Lee In-young met with the U.S. envoy for North Korea to seek ways to bring the reclusive regime back to the negotiating table, his office said Tuesday.

During the meeting, Lee and U.S. Special Representative Sung Kim discussed ways to "stably manage" the currently "grave" political situation on the Korean Peninsula, the ministry said in a press release.

Lee stressed the two sides must maintain close policy cooperation ahead of the incoming government of President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol, and work closely to prevent the North from escalating tensions and resume dialogue.

Kim said the U.S. remains open to diplomacy and engagement with Pyongyang but stressed it will respond to the North's provocations through close consultations with the South.

He also met Vice Unification Minister Choi Young-joon to discuss the latest political situation, including the North's reported test of a tactical guided missile over the weekend.

Kim's visit here comes amid concerns Pyongyang could stage major provocations, such as a nuclear or intercontinental ballistic missile test, ahead of Yoon's inauguration next month. (Yonhap)


The Korea Times · April 19, 2022


10. North Korea's nuclear doctrine

Excerpts:

That leads us to the importance of significantly strengthening deterrence against North Korea. We have to start with upgrading our missile strike and defense capability. Even belatedly, the Moon Jae-in government seems to have found that it can no longer put off the efforts. I am confident that these efforts will continue under the new Yoon Suk-yeol government.

These are quintessential efforts, but not sufficient in my view to meet the growing threats from North Korea. Many ideas have already been put on the table ― South Korea's deployment of nuclear-powered submarines, deeper integration of missile defense systems with the U.S., redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the South, NATO-style nuclear sharing, even a South Korean nuclear program.

They are not easy options. But we have to wake up to the seriousness of the situation, review the merits and costs of each of these options against the unprecedented threats posed by North Korea and make fresh efforts to significantly strengthen our deterrence capability. Business as usual will not do.


North Korea's nuclear doctrine
The Korea Times · April 19, 2022
By Ahn Ho-young

The past several months have been a particularly frustrating time for a large number of North Korea watchers. North Korea began the year with the repeated testing of missiles of various ranges and capabilities, many of them capable of evading interception by missile defense systems deployed in the South. After the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, North Korea tested intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as well.

On April 1, Defense Minister Suh Wook attended a ceremony to inaugurate the upgraded Strategic Missile Command. He took advantage of the opportunity to respond to North Korean provocations: at the clear and imminent sign of missile attacks by North Korea, South Korea will respond with preemptive strikes on North Korea.

Minister Suh was simply reiterating South Korea's defense policy dating back to previous governments. However, North Korea, used to a more conciliatory and accommodating policy of the South during the past five years, responded with vehement verbal threats on April 2. Two days later, it issued another statement, which threatened the South with what I would call a North Korean version of a nuclear doctrine.

The statement read that the primary mission of North Korean nuclear forces is to deter attacks on itself. However, once a war breaks out, its mission will change to annihilating the military capability of the "other party" at an early time.

North Korea has long threatened South Korea with total devastation, often threatening to turn the South into a "sea of fire." North Korea has also declared its intention to use nuclear forces to unify Korea under its own terms. However, April 4 was the very first time that North Korea disclosed a clear plan of using nuclear weapons against the "other party," implying South Korea and the U.S. I wish to share several important takeaways from this unprecedented declaration by North Korea.

First of all, North Korea declared in unmistakable terms why it is developing nuclear weapons. The April 4 statement repeatedly reminded South Korea that it is not a nuclear power. North Korea is thus already using its nuclear power as a means of intimidating South Korea. However, North Korea's purpose is not only for bluff, intimidation or deterrence. North Korea declared that it is ready to use its nuclear weapons at the start of a war.

Second, the recklessness underlying the April 4 statement concerns me in the most serious manner. The proliferation of nuclear weapons made many defense thinkers to move away from planning all-out war to self-restraint and limited war for fear of what they called nuclear Armageddon. One typical example of such efforts was the escalation ladder of 44 rungs conceived by Herman Kahn. These efforts resulted in President John F. Kennedy adopting a "flexible response" as the basis of the U.S. nuclear doctrine.

I do not read such self-restraint and fear for the consequence of its actions in the North Korean version of nuclear doctrine. The start of war will trigger North Korea to massively employ nuclear weapons at the very start in order to "prevail in the battlefield, annihilate the military capability of the other party at an early time and obliterate the other party's will to fight."

Third, given North Korea's unprecedented declaration of the purpose and the modality of using nuclear weapons, the question we have to face more seriously than ever is how to defend the life and safety of our own citizens in the South.
We have been pursuing the three pillars of "diplomacy, sanction and deterrence." We will have to keep the door open for diplomacy. But no one has high hopes for the path for the time being. We talk about further strengthening sanctions against North Korea. But we know that the prospect is very dim, particularly in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and deepening divide among the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.

That leads us to the importance of significantly strengthening deterrence against North Korea. We have to start with upgrading our missile strike and defense capability. Even belatedly, the Moon Jae-in government seems to have found that it can no longer put off the efforts. I am confident that these efforts will continue under the new Yoon Suk-yeol government.

These are quintessential efforts, but not sufficient in my view to meet the growing threats from North Korea. Many ideas have already been put on the table ― South Korea's deployment of nuclear-powered submarines, deeper integration of missile defense systems with the U.S., redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the South, NATO-style nuclear sharing, even a South Korean nuclear program.

They are not easy options. But we have to wake up to the seriousness of the situation, review the merits and costs of each of these options against the unprecedented threats posed by North Korea and make fresh efforts to significantly strengthen our deterrence capability. Business as usual will not do.

Ahn Ho-young (hyahn78@mofa.or.kr) is president of the University of North Korean Studies. He served as Korean ambassador to the United States and first vice foreign minister.


The Korea Times · April 19, 2022



11. Going nuclear (nuclear energy in South Korea)

A caution about nuclear power plants based on lessons from Ukraine.

Excerpts:

The two countries bring complementary strengths, with the U.S. possessing more advanced nuclear technology, while Korea is a leader in manufacturing and constructing reactors.

Nuclear power also forms the centerpiece of plans by Yoon to make Korea a major global "green" nuclear energy power. These plans also include financing the development of smart grids and next-generation energy storage systems.

But the war in Ukraine has also shown that Yoon's push for nuclear power does not come without risks when Korea is a potential conflict zone. In its invasion, Russia temporarily occupied the Chernobyl nuclear complex, the site of one of world's worst nuclear accidents in 1986, as well as shelled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and attacked a nuclear research center in Kharkiv. These actions threatened the release of radiation from these facilities.

Going nuclear
The Korea Times · April 18, 2022
By John Burton
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's decision to revive Korea's nuclear power program is a pragmatic one and reverses what some argue was an unrealistic policy by the Moon Jae-in administration to phase out nuclear energy.

The blunt truth is that Korea would never be able to achieve its decarbonization goals without nuclear power, which now accounts for 30 percent of the country's electricity generation.

President Moon had pledged last year that up to 70 percent of Korea's power would be provided by renewables, including solar and wind power, by 2050, up from 7 percent now. In the meantime, Korea would also rely on liquefied natural gas and carbon capture technology to cover the energy gap caused by the shutdown of nuclear reactors. This target was part of an ambitious plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. But critics warned that this goal was probably unfeasible and would lead to soaring electricity costs.

Under Moon's plan, the number of nuclear plants in operation would be cut from 24 to 17 by 2034, which would reduce the amount of nuclear-generated electricity to 24 percent of the total power output from the current 30 percent.

On the other hand, Yoon has promised that he would maintain at least the current share of nuclear power before in fact increasing it later, while resuming the construction of two nuclear plants that had been suspended in 2017. In contrast, renewables would comprise only 20 percent to 25 percent of the energy mix and fossil fuels 40 percent to 45 percent by 2030.

Yoon's embrace of nuclear power is part of a highly contested but global trend. Amid a contentious political battle, the European Commission, for example, classified nuclear power recently as a "green" energy source. The war in Ukraine then also raised fears about a potential energy crisis and the reliance of Korea and other countries on the foreign producers of fossil fuels, such as oil and natural gas.

Relying on nuclear power could amount to increased energy security. Poland, the Czech Republic and the U.K. are accelerating plans to build more nuclear plants in the wake of the Russian attack, while Belgium postponed plans to phase out nuclear power due to the Ukraine war. Japan is expected to reopen nuclear reactors that were closed in response to the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011.

Korea's adherence to nuclear power would also deliver economic benefits by providing opportunities to increase exports of nuclear technology. Russia is now the world's top nuclear energy exporter. But its invasion of Ukraine is likely to hurt its standing in international markets, particularly those of democratic nations, since Russia has gained a reputation for using energy as a political weapon.

In the meantime, Russia may also have problems in delivering nuclear technology due to international sanctions. This will likely affect its generous financing of nuclear plants, a key selling point. Finland and Turkey are reconsidering the construction of nuclear plants from Russia.

Yoon has already said he would set a goal of Korea exporting 10 nuclear power plants to Eastern Europe and the Middle East by 2030, which he claimed would create 100,000 jobs.

Yoon's push for nuclear exports is expected to include closer cooperation with the United States. Some analysts suggest that Korea and the U.S. could form the core of an alliance among democratic nations, including Canada, Japan, France and the U.K, that would cooperate in providing nuclear technology and financial assistance to future customers against competition from Russia and China.

Cooperation could focus on light-water nuclear reactors and the development of smaller modular reactors (SMRs) that would replace the current generation of large nuclear plants. Demand for smaller nuclear reactors would be suitable for developing countries in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia as they seek clean energy.

Although he championed the reduction of nuclear energy at home, President Moon laid the foundation for cooperation with the U.S. in entering overseas nuclear power markets a year ago. In a meeting with President Joe Biden in May 2021, the two leaders promised "joint participation in nuclear power plant projects" to improve their competitiveness against Russia and China for foreign orders.

The two countries bring complementary strengths, with the U.S. possessing more advanced nuclear technology, while Korea is a leader in manufacturing and constructing reactors.

Nuclear power also forms the centerpiece of plans by Yoon to make Korea a major global "green" nuclear energy power. These plans also include financing the development of smart grids and next-generation energy storage systems.

But the war in Ukraine has also shown that Yoon's push for nuclear power does not come without risks when Korea is a potential conflict zone. In its invasion, Russia temporarily occupied the Chernobyl nuclear complex, the site of one of world's worst nuclear accidents in 1986, as well as shelled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and attacked a nuclear research center in Kharkiv. These actions threatened the release of radiation from these facilities.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.


The Korea Times · April 18, 2022


12. US government warns that North Korea is targeting crypto firms


US government warns that North Korea is targeting crypto firms
On Monday, three major US government entities issued a joint alert on cyber threats faced by companies working in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sector. These entities were the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and the US Treasury Department.
The public announcement, referred to as a ‘cybersecurity advisory’ was posted on CISA’s official website. CISA is a federal agency under the US Department of Homeland Security tasked to improve the country's cybersecurity, and routinely puts out alerts regarding threats.
The alert said the US government has observed that hacking groups, believed to be sponsored by the North Korean regime, are targeting crypto companies. The groups mentioned in the report — Lazarus Group, APT38, BlueNoroff, and Stardust Chollima — present what’s dubbed as an advanced persistent threat (APT). This means a cybersecurity threat actor that can gain authorized access to computer systems and remain undetected for long periods.
Per the announcement, crypto exchanges, decentralized finance protocols, play-to-earn games, venture capital firms and trading firms are being targeted by hackers to steal and launder crypto assets that will support the North Korean regime. Furthermore, the alert added that large individual investors are also at risk of being attacked.
Moreover, it explained that hacking groups have been actively trying to steal crypto assets from various crypto companies using a variety of techniques. These include phishing campaigns and social engineering, with the goal of deploying malicious applications, containing Trojan malware. These malicious applications have been dubbed "TraderTraitor" and infect computer systems to try and steal assets stored in crypto wallets, the alert said. The applications are typically executed through phishing emails sent to employees working in crypto firms by luring them via high-paying job offers.
The latest announcement stressed that crypto firms need to be careful against cyber threats and use strategies to mitigate them. It listed mitigation procedures like patching software, employing multi-factor authentication (MFA) and educating employees on phishing attacks.
The groups mentioned in the alert have already stolen large sums of funds from cryptocurrency-related projects. Last week, the US government named Lazarus as the main perpetrator behind the $600 million hack on Ronin — the blockchain used for the play-to-earn game called Axie Infinity. But the group has been stealing from crypto players for some years now. In a January 2022 report, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis noted that Lazarus Group was involved in a hack against Kucoin crypto exchange in 2020 and another undisclosed exchange in 2018. The two attacks net Lazarus more than $500 million in total from the two events.
The alert matches observations from prominent crypto individuals. DeFiance Capital Arthur Cheong posted a tweet thread on April 15 about this issue. He said, "Based on our research and conversation with leading cyber security experts, we believe BlueNorOff are running an organized campaign to target all the prominent organizations in the crypto space."
"It is critical that this industry is highly aware that we are being actively targeted by a state-sponsored cyber crime organization that is extremely resourceful and sophisticated," he added.
Cheong recently fell foul to a phishing attack, losing $1.7 million in NFTs and crypto from his own wallet. In addition, the firm lost a further $720,000 from a separate wallet due to the same attack and narrowly avoided losing $13.3 million more.

© 2022 The Block Crypto, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.


13. Yoon to invite 41,000 for his inauguration ceremony amid eased virus distancing



Yoon to invite 41,000 for his inauguration ceremony amid eased virus distancing
koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · April 19, 2022
Published : Apr 19, 2022 - 21:24 Updated : Apr 19, 2022 - 21:24
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol attends a forum on South Korea’s economic security on Monday. (Yoon’s office)


A larger than previously planned number of people will be invited to attend President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's inaugural ceremony slated for early next month amid eased virus restrictions, according to Yoon's transition team Tuesday.

Some 41,000 people are expected to attend the ceremony, including political leaders, citizens and bereaved families of sailors killed in North Korea's sinking of the Cheonan warship in 2010, the transition team said.

The transition team said more people than previously thought will be invited, as the country fully lifted COVID-19 restrictions, except the mask mandate Monday.

Yoon's inaugural ceremony committee had earlier planned to invite around 10,000 people in line with earlier COVID-19 guidelines.

The ceremony will take place at a plaza in front of the National Assembly on May 10 and is expected to cost around 3.3 billion won ($2.66 million), the largest-ever. (Yonhap)



V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
VIDEO "WHEREBY" Link: https://whereby.com/david-maxwell
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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