Quotes of the Day:
"At any age it does us no harm to look over our past shortcomings and plan to improve our characters and actions in the coming year."
- Eleanor Roosevelt
"Take up one idea. Make that one idea your life - think of it, dream of it, live on that idea. Let the brain, muscles, nerves, every part of your body, be full of that idea, and just leave every other idea alone. This is the way to success."
- Swami Vivekananda
'Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."
- Friedrich Nietzsche
1. KDVA: Joint Message Regarding North Korean Missile Launches
2. N.K. media boast of ICBM launch 'success'
3. US experts and defector diplomats "Kim Jong-un's remarks of 'long-term confrontation with the US' are bluffs, endangering both residents and the military"
4. China’s protection of North Korea should stop
5. Remarks by Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield in Response to China and Russia at a UN Security Council Briefing on the DPRK
6. Russia says it has agreed to coordinate with China on North Korea
7. China calls for restraint regarding nuclear issue on Korean Peninsula
8. North Korea launches first ICBM since 2017, ending self-imposed moratorium
9. US calls for stiffer UN sanctions against North Korea
10. Why Does North Korea Want ICBMs?
11. Experts: North Korea's New ICBM May Carry Multiple Nuclear Warheads
12. U.S. will introduce new UNSC resolution to strengthen sanctions on N. Korea: U.S. envoy
13. Three principles for the transition
14. North Korea's ICBM launch complicates President-elect Yoon's defense vision
15. What to Expect for US-ROK Relations and Inter-Korean Relations Under Yoon Suk-yeol
1. KDVA: Joint Message Regarding North Korean Missile Launches
KOREA DEFENSE VETERANS ASSOCIATION
"Together for the ROK-U.S. Alliance"
2022년3월 25일
March 25, 2022
북한 미사일 도발 관련 공동 성명
Joint Message Regarding North Korean Missile Launches
북한은 지난 3 개월 동안 다양한 사거리와 능력을 지닌 미사일을 연이어 발사하였으며, 2022 년 3 월 24 일에는 대륙간탄도미사일(ICBM)을 쏘아 올렸다. 북한의 미사일 도발은 분명히 위험하고 잘못된 선택이다. 북한의 도발은 평화의 길을 확신하지 못하고, 평화와 안전을 희망하는 북한 주민들의 의사를 무시하며 국제사회의 관심만을 끌려는 행태일 뿐이다.
The recent spate of missile launches, of varying ranges and capabilities over the last three months, and particularly the apparent Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launch on March 24, 2022 clearly reflects a bad and negative set of choices by North Korea. Their decisions to engage in such provocative actions reflect the sentiments of a country that is unsure of the way to peace and that craves the attention of the international community even above the hopes of the North Korean People for peace and security.
우리는 지난 72 년 이상 북한의 침략으로부터 한미동맹을 지원하고 대한민국을 지켜온 참전용사 및 복무장병들을 대표하여, 한미동맹의 힘을 지속적으로 지켜 나갈 것임을 다짐한다. 한미동맹의 힘은 한·미 연합군의 군사력 뿐만 아니라, 공고한 양국 국민 관계에서 다져진 경제적, 문화적 힘을 포함한다.
As for more than 72 years, we express our continued devotion to the strength of the Korea – United States Alliance, including the military strength of the combined forces of the two countries as well as the economic and cultural power that continues to emerge from the close people to people connections between the two countries.
우리는 오래동안 지속되어 온 정전협정이 항구적인 평화로 대체되기를 희망한다. 그러나 우리는 평화가 당연히 올 것이라고 추정해서는 안된다. 안보를 튼튼히 하여 평화를 확보해야 한다. 현재 및 미래의 한미동맹 지도자들의 건승을 기원한다. 한미동맹재단과 주한미군전우회는 특별한 한미동맹을 위해서 지속적으로 헌신할 것임을 약속한다.
We remain hopeful that the long-standing Armistice can soon be replaced by a lasting peace, yet we also remain clear-eyed that such an outcome cannot be presumed. It must, rather, be secured. Our best wishes go the leaders, present and future, of the two Nations of the Alliance. We, the Korea – US Alliance Foundation and the Korea Defense Veterans Association, pledge our continued support for our unique Alliance.
“함께해요 한미동맹”
“Together for the ROK-U.S. Alliance”
정승조
예비역 육군 대장
한미동맹재단 회장
Jung, Seung Jo
General, ROK Army (Retired)
President, Korea-US Alliance Foundation
빈센트 K 브룩스
예비역 육군 대장
주한미군전우회 회장
Vincent K. Brooks
General, U.S. Army (Retired)
President, Korea Defense Veterans Association
2. N.K. media boast of ICBM launch 'success'
This is important propaganda for the regime to project to the Korean people in the north. But it has certainly fallen flat with the international community. The "top Gun" like video of Kim was a dud to those outside north Korea.
(LEAD) N.K. media boast of ICBM launch 'success' | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; CHANGES slug; UPDATES story throughout with more N. Korea media reports; TRIMS)
SEOUL, March 26 (Yonhap) -- North Korean media outlets ran headlines Saturday boasting of the country's "success" in launching a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) earlier this week, casting it as "a thrilling victory."
The Rodong Sinmun, the North's main newspaper, reported on its front page, "We have seen it, and so has the world," adding, "Our country has become stronger once again and our people have become greater once more."
North Korea on Friday confirmed its test-firing of a new ICBM the previous day under the direct order of its leader Kim Jong-un, making it official that it has scrapped its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile launches that had been in place since early 2018.
The newspaper described the Hwasong-17 as a missile that "flew like an arrow of justice and showed off the irreversible military strength," and said the height it has reached is the height of the "dignity of the nation and people."
The article described its leader Kim Jong-un, who oversaw the missile launch, as a "comrade in a majestic posture who raised a fist with his warriors and left a canvas that will remain in history."
Kim has also caught the world's attention by appearing in the video for the ICBM launch, sporting a black leather jacket and aviator shades, a look that foreign media have likened to "a Hollywood-style" makeover and a "Top Gun" appearance.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) also carried reports on North Korean citizens crowded around a bulletin board to read the news on the ICBM test with excitement and pride.
Meanwhile, the Choson Sinbo, a pro-North Korea newspaper in Japan, reported that the North's latest ICBM test is a "key means of attack" targeting the United States and aimed at gaining "overwhelming power" over U.S. hostilities.
"The purpose of developing strategic weapons is to acquire overwhelming power that will completely break the will of the United States to open a war," the outlet reported.
"Hwasongpho-17 is a key means of the North's strategic armed forces to strike the United States facing off across the Pacific Ocean," it said.
The newspaper also stressed that no armed conflict will occur if Washington withdraws its hostile policy toward Pyongyang.
(END)
3. US experts and defector diplomats "Kim Jong-un's remarks of 'long-term confrontation with the US' are bluffs, endangering both residents and the military"
This is a google translation of a Voice of America article. It is sufficient to get the gist of it.
The reason I am pointing this out is because the VOA journalist contacted me and said he had the task to inform the Korean people in the north, the regime, elite, and the military about the huge differences in strength of the alliance, and in particular US military, as compared to the north Korean People's Army.
As you read the comments from me, Greg Scarlatoiu, Ko Young-hwan, a former North Korean diplomat, Ryu Hyun-woo, former north Korean acting deputy ambassador to Kuwait, and former acting ambassador Ryu Hyeon-woo you can see our very pointed messages to the Korean people in the north. VOA and RFA are key to US influence operations. And note we are simply stating facts and providing observations (and comparisons to the Russian military in Ukraine).
We should note that while north Korea tries to jam VOA and RFA broadcasts, our transmitters have the power to push through the jamming. Also the regime must expend a lot of electricity to operate its jammer during VOA and RFA broadcasts. The regime wastes a lot of energy in its attempt to prevent information flow and keep the Korean people isolated.
Like the bomber (from airpower theory), the message and information will get through.
US experts and defector diplomats "Kim Jong-un's remarks of 'long-term confrontation with the US' are bluffs, endangering both residents and the military"
2022.3.26
It is bluff and arrogance that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said he would prepare for a long-term confrontation with the United States with powerful military technology, which would endanger only the North Korean people and the military, US experts and senior defectors said. North Korea's military power is so inferior that it cannot even be compared with the world's most powerful United States, and it is pointed out that the leader is putting the whole country in danger with false propaganda for system unity. Reporter Kim Young-kwon reports.
State-run media such as North Korea's 'Chosun Central TV' reported on the 25th that Chairman Kim Jong-un celebrated the success of launching a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-17 and said that he would prepare for a long-term confrontation with the United States.
[Record: Chosun Central TV] “You said that you would prepare for a long-term confrontation with US imperialism thoroughly with strong military technology.”
Chairman Kim also insisted that acquiring such a military offensive capability is for the safety of North Korea and the eternal well-being of all descendants.
However, Ryu Hyun-woo, former acting deputy ambassador to Kuwait, who defected to South Korea in 2019, told VOA on the 25th, "North Korean high-ranking officials are deceiving the people even though they know that confrontation with the United States is the end."
Because of the Kim family's logic of maintaining the system in order to constantly make the United States the main enemy for internal solidarity, only the residents continue to live a difficult life, deceived by false propaganda.
[Transcript: Former Acting Ambassador Ryu Hyeon-woo] “High-level executives are generally aware of the greatness of the United States. We all know that there is no broth in the case of confrontation with the United States. Despite this, isn't internal solidarity the most dangerous thing for a ruler to send a message that Kim Jong-un uses the United States as his main enemy and continues to fight for a long time with the United States? So, in order to achieve internal solidarity, the existence of the United States must continue to be the main enemy. That is why we continue to arm the people with anti-Americanism and anti-imperialist culture against the United States.”
David Maxwell, a senior researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy (FDD), who served as the operational chief of staff for the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, pointed out that “Kim Jong-un’s comments are ignorant and arrogant” to prepare for a long-term confrontation with the United States.
[녹취: 맥스웰 선임연구원] “Kim Jong-un's comments are ignorant but arrogant, and they are dangerous to his own people and his own military because his lies give his military and his people a false sense of security and a false sense of ability.”
"Kim Jong-un's lies endanger both the people and the military by instilling in his military and people a false sense of security and capability."
Senior Researcher Maxwell said, “If a war begins, North Koreans will know on the first day that everything Kim Jong-un said was a lie. You will see it,” he said.
In fact, the firepower of the U.S. and North Korean forces, which have the strongest military power in the world, are so vast that it is difficult to even compare them.
According to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and 'Global Firepower', a military power evaluation agency, the US spends about 3.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense every year.
This is more than 27 times the size of North Korea's 2020 gross domestic product (GDP) estimated by the South Korean National Statistical Office, which is $28.9 billion, which is the sum of the market value of all goods and services produced in North Korea.
The U.S. military also has 13,247 military aircraft, including some 2,000 of the world's strongest fighter jets, 6,612 state-of-the-art tanks, 45,000 armored vehicles, 1,300 rocket-propelled vehicles, 11 aircraft carriers and 68 nuclear-powered submarines. There are 484 warships, including ships, and more than 1.4 million active troops.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) pointed out in the 'North Korea Military Force Report' released last year that most conventional weapons in North Korea were imported from Russia and China between 1950 and 1970 and are very outdated, and that North Korea's own production of weapons is very limited. There is.
Senior Researcher Maxwell said that most of North Korea's weapons are old Russian-made equipment, and North Koreans need to pay attention to how poorly they are fighting after Russia invaded Ukraine with the same and more modern weapons.
[녹취: 맥스웰 선임연구원] “The first thing I think the Korean people in the North should look at is how badly Putin is fighting Putin's war with the same equipment that North Korea uses actually, more modern equipment than North Korea uses,”
In particular, the reason Ukraine has so far propagated with far fewer troops than Russia is because its troops have been well trained in the United States and in the West over the past few years and use modern weapons. He said it was not at a level that threatened the US military.
Moreover, "Russian forces fight for the dictator Putin, but Ukrainians are fighting for freedom, which is different."
[맥스웰 선임연구원] “Russia is fighting for Putin and Ukrainian people are fighting for freedom and when you compare North Korea to South Korea and North Korea to the United States, South Korea and the United States will be fighting for freedom…”
Senior Researcher Maxwell pointed out that the US and South Korean military also fight for the values of freedom and democracy.
In addition, North Korea's long-range artillery and multiple rocket launchers can be sufficiently destroyed with precision-guided weapons through the various advanced tracking and detection equipment of the US military. It is an explanation that all military facilities in North Korea will be destroyed with a far more overwhelming US nuclear capability.
In addition, if the war begins with a North Korean attack, the US F-35 and South Korean F-15 fighters can destroy all North Korea's air force and neutralize the air defense system on the first day. He said that we must not instill false perceptions.
Greg Skalatu, secretary-general of the North Korean Human Rights Commission (HRNK), who grew up in Romania, a former communist country in Eastern Europe, also pointed out that "Kim Jong-un is talking as if he's going to have an arms race with the United States, but he's talking unrealistically."
He said, "There can be no arms race between North Korea and the United States," he said. "The answer is self-evident when we look at the fact that the Soviet Union fought an arms race with the United States during the Cold War, and eventually the Soviet economy deteriorated due to the overwhelming dominance of the United States and the system collapsed.
[녹취: 스칼라튜 사무총장] “There is no arms race between North Korean and the USA…Actually during the Cold War, the United States clearly outclassed the Soviet Union and guess what? If you look at what's happening in Ukraine right now, you see that Russia is still outclassed by any type of Western NATO support for the Ukrainian freedom fighters. There is absolutely…”
In fact, since the late 1950s, the Soviet Union, engaged in space exploration and arms races with the United States, overspending nearly 20% of its national budget on military expenditures, running out of national finances and eventually entering a path of decline.
Ko Young-hwan, a former North Korean diplomat and an advisory research fellow at the Korea Institute for National History, told VOA on the 24th that Chairman Kim Jong-un's missile propaganda and agitation are gradually losing trust among residents.
[Recording: Commissioner Koh Young-hwan] “There is an idiom saying, “It is the same as selling dog meat when you say you are selling mutton. It's the same behavior as that. After all, what Kim Jong-un has done for the past 10 years is nothing but nuclear weapons and missiles. Since there is almost nothing he has done for the people, Kim Jong-un has no choice but to push forward with this. But why do they keep firing missiles even among North Koreans? It shows up in consciousness.”
The propaganda of the ICBM test launch may give residents pride for a while, but in the long run, it will inevitably become a subject of dissatisfaction due to the deterioration of people's livelihoods.
Former acting ambassador Ryu Hyeon-woo said that in the end, everything is connected with the qualities of a national leader.
[Transcript: Former Acting Ambassador Ryu Hyeon-woo] “A real national leader must have a long-term national vision, but since it is a completely hereditary feudal hereditary dictatorship… Do the North Koreans have no basis for preparation, perhaps because what they say to the US is nonsense? Information must come in! America is older than us! I know this, but I think this is the biggest problem because it was blocked at the source. North Koreans need to know about the outside world, but they do not know how oppressed and anti-human rights are living in a closed space. In this respect, I think that sending information to North Korea is the most important project.”
This is Kim Young-kwon from VOA News.
4. China’s protection of North Korea should stop
It should but I think it will not. In fact I am sure it will. not.
China’s protection of North Korea should stop
Posted March. 26, 2022 07:26,
Updated March. 26, 2022 07:26
China’s protection of North Korea should stop. March. 26, 2022 07:26. .
South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol had the first conversation over the phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping. It came the day after North Korea’s launch of the ‘monster ICBM.’ Yoon discussed with Xi the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and responses to North Korea’s provocations. North Korea confirmed on Friday that the ICBM was the Hwasong-17 and claimed that it had been completed as a reliable method to deter nuclear wars.
North Korea is baldly raising the level of nuclear provocations by breaking the red line with the launch of the ‘monster ICBM.’ North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivered a handwritten order that read “Shoot with bravery” and visited Pyongyang Sunan Airport to watch the launch process. A North Korean news agency covered the story and used the word ‘nuclear’ 13 times. It seems like the country will continue further provocations, including nuclear tests.
It is true that the response of China, a country supposed to prevent the North’s impulsive behavior, was disappointing. “We hope each relevant country will maintain an appropriate direction for dialogues and negotiations,” said China on Thursday regarding the North’s ICBM launch. Rather than condemning the North, China seems to be shifting the responsibility to other countries. China is also not raising its voice in the U.N. Security Council, as it cannot avoid criticism that it took advantage of the New Cold War atmosphere and opened a room for North Korea’s provocations.
It is unlikely that China will work with Yoon on the North Korean issues. The country has been expressing its discomfort with Yoon’s policy of ‘confident diplomacy’ toward China. However, there is no reason for China to aid and abet North Korea’s nuclear provocations. North Korea’s sophistication of nuclear technology is a political burden and security threat to President Xi before his third term. It is a factor accelerating regional destabilization by encouraging neighboring countries’ nuclear proliferation.
China should stop North Korea’s provocation and put pressure on the country to come to dialogues. China should first change its attitude of obstructing the international community’s sanctions against North Korea. The U.N. Security Resolution 2397 has a trigger clause that automatically applies additional sanctions against North Korea in case of its ICBM launch but it is only effective when the resolution is passed. China’s participation is a responsibility as a member of the international community. The new South Korean administration should also prepare to begin close cooperation with China right after it takes office. Deterring North Korea’s nuclear weapons is a common ground on which the national interests of South Korea and China depend and a key issue that will determine the future relationship of the two.
5. Remarks by Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield in Response to China and Russia at a UN Security Council Briefing on the DPRK
It is amazing how China and Russia could make such statements and proposals with straight faces. Our Ambassador continues to have to spend a lot of time calling out the Chinese and Russians for tei ignorant comments and proposals.
Remarks by Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield in Response to China and Russia at a UN Security Council Briefing on the DPRK
Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield
U.S. Representative to the United Nations
New York, New York
March 25, 2022
AS DELIVERED
Thank you, Madam President.
Some of our colleagues are trying to frame this as a U.S.-DPRK problem. This is a threat that impacts all of us, and it is our collective responsibility to respond.
In terms of the humanitarian impact of sanctions, the experts have repeatedly told us that the number one barrier to sending humanitarian assistance into the DPRK is the DPRK’s self-imposed border closures, not international sanctions, as some of our colleagues have alleged. The United States remains committed to addressing the humanitarian situation in DPRK, which is why we have offered to discuss these issues with the DPRK directly, but have yet to receive a response.
We have also continued to support the 1718 Committee’s swift processing of sanctions exemptions to aid organizations and it is why we are now working closely with the UN Secretariat to establish a reliable banking channel. We call on DPRK to commit to the well-being of its own people by respecting human rights, defunding its unlawful WMD and ballistic missile program, and prioritizing the needs of vulnerable North Koreans.
As for the draft resolution that China and Russia have proposed, it is predicated on their assessment that DPRK is showing goodwill through a moratorium, as understood by the PRC and Russia, on RBMs and ICBMs and nuclear tests. In addition to its January 30 RBM launch, the DPRK has now ignored its own moratorium on ICBM tests three times: on February 27, on March 5, March 24 ICBM launches. In light of these escalating provocations and a return to testing long-range systems, the purported impetus for the resolution is no longer valid. We need quickly to return to strengthening the 1718 sanctions regimes not considering sanction relief.
And finally, on AUKUS – although I do not want to stray from the serious matter at hand, I do want to correct the erroneous claims about AUKUS. The AUKUS initiative is to provide conventionally-armed nuclear powered submarines to Australia. It does not include nuclear-armed submarines. The NPT does not prohibit naval nuclear propulsion, and Australia does not and will not seek nuclear weapons, consistent with its NPT obligations as a non-nuclear-weapons state. We take our NPT commitments very seriously, which also drives our strong support of the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Thank you, Madam President.
###
6. Russia says it has agreed to coordinate with China on North Korea
Notice there is no mention of trying to force north Korea to cease its hostile actions and policy. "Fair political and diplomatic solutions" is code for the US making concessions to the north while the north gives nothing in return.
Russia says it has agreed to coordinate with China on North Korea
A deal was reached at talks between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov and the Chinese representative on the Korean Peninsula
By Reuters
Published: Fri 25 Mar 2022, 8:41 PM
Russia and China have agreed to coordinate closely on the situation on the Korean peninsula after North Korea’s launch of a new intercontinental missile, Russia’s foreign ministry was quoted as saying on Friday.
“Concern was expressed over the latest developments in the sub-region” at the meeting between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov and China’s representative on the Korean Peninsula, Liu Xiaoming, the ministry was quoted by RIA news agency as saying.
ALSO READ:
The talks emphasised the need to step up efforts to find fair political and diplomatic solutions to the problems of northeast Asia, and “it was agreed to maintain close coordination between Russia and China”, the ministry said, according to RIA.
7. China calls for restraint regarding nuclear issue on Korean Peninsula
Again, who does China want to show restraint? The US and the ROK/US alliance.
The US has shown goodwill : it has offered talks without preconditions, offered to provide as well as support the efforts of other to provide humanitarian assistance and COVID relief, has reduced exercises for the past 4 years and more. What goodwill has the north shown in return?
Excerpts:
Zhang said the direct parties to the peninsula issue, namely the United States and the DPRK, should re-engage in direct talks without delay.
"It is right and proper for the U.S. side to show its goodwill, take actions that have practical relevance, and work harder to stabilize the situation, build mutual trust, and relaunch dialogue," the envoy noted.
He underscored that given the evolving situation, the international community should stick to prudence and reason on the peninsula issue, and play a positive, constructive role in bringing about a political settlement of the peninsula issue.
China calls for restraint regarding nuclear issue on Korean Peninsula
Photo provided by Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on March 25, 2022 shows the test launch of a new type intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasongpho-17 of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) strategic forces. (Korean Central News Agency/Handout via Xinhua)
A Chinese envoy said the direct parties to the peninsula issue, namely the United States and the DPRK, should re-engage in direct talks without delay.
UNITED NATIONS, March 25 (Xinhua) -- China on Friday called for restraint on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue after the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile was conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) the previous day.
"Under the current circumstances, we call on the parties concerned to stay calm, exercise restraint, stay on the right track of dialogue and consultation, and avoid taking any action that may exacerbate the tensions and lead to miscalculations," China's permanent representative to the United Nations Zhang Jun told the Security Council meeting on the situation of the Korean Peninsula.
"As the peninsula's next door neighbor, China has been consistent in advocating and promoting the peninsula's peace and stability, its de-nuclearization, and the approach of seeking a solution through dialogue and consultation," Zhang said, adding that "we hope the United States and the DPRK will actively pursue dialogue and engagement in search of an effective solution to settle their differences."
Zhang said the direct parties to the peninsula issue, namely the United States and the DPRK, should re-engage in direct talks without delay.
"It is right and proper for the U.S. side to show its goodwill, take actions that have practical relevance, and work harder to stabilize the situation, build mutual trust, and relaunch dialogue," the envoy noted.
He underscored that given the evolving situation, the international community should stick to prudence and reason on the peninsula issue, and play a positive, constructive role in bringing about a political settlement of the peninsula issue.
Zhang Jun (C, front), China's permanent representative to the United Nations, makes his explanatory remarks after the vote on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine, at the UN headquarters in New York, on March 23, 2022. (Xinhua/Xie E)
"No parties should take any action that would lead to greater tensions, and the Peninsula cannot afford the risk of any dramatic change, much less a reversal of the situation with dire consequences," said Zhang, noting that "what needs to happen now, as a matter of urgency, is for the parties concerned to actively seek a political way out of the impasse on the basis of existing understandings in light of the latest developments."
"China calls on the parties to put the greater good of peace and stability on the peninsula first, speak and act with caution, pursue dialogue and consultation, take the dual-track approach guided by the principle of moving forward in phases with synchronized steps, and work tirelessly to denuclearize the Peninsula and to build a peace mechanism thereon," said the ambassador.
He pointed out that the DPRK's legitimate concerns must be addressed and both the United States and the DPRK must resume direct talks as soon as possible.
"It is imperative to interpret and implement the Security Council resolutions concerning the DPRK in a comprehensive manner. These resolutions should be implemented comprehensively, completely and accurately," the envoy said.
The photo provided by Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Feb. 13, 2022 shows the groundbreaking ceremony of a new project of building 10,000 flats in Pyongyang, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). (KCNA via Xinhua)
"The fact that the peninsula issue is deadlocked is to some degree attributable to the absence of effective implementation of certain provisions therein. The parties concerned should take this issue seriously, and take practical actions rather than put one-sided emphasis on the sanctions provisions therein," he stressed.
Zhang underlined that the council should play a constructive role when it comes to the peninsula issue, adding that it should not stress the need for sanctions and pressurization to the exclusion of other considerations.
"It is in the common interest of all countries to safeguard the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. At this important juncture for the persistent and intractable nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula, certain countries ignore the concerns of the international community and went ahead with their nuclear submarine cooperation, which poses a serious risk of nuclear proliferation," he said. ■
8. North Korea launches first ICBM since 2017, ending self-imposed moratorium
My comments, among others, below.
North Korea launches first ICBM since 2017, ending self-imposed moratorium
UPDATED at 1:08 A.M. EDT on 2022-03-25
North Korea on Thursday ended a self-imposed moratorium on testing long range missiles, launching a new kind of ICBM for the first time since 2017, an act that drew condemnation worldwide.
State media reported that the new Hwasong-17 missile is Pyongyang’s largest ever. The country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, watched the test.
“The missile, launched at Pyongyang International Airport, traveled up to a maximum altitude of 6,248.5 km [about 3900 miles] and flew a distance of 1,090 km [about 680 miles] for 4.052 seconds before accurately hitting the pre-set area in open waters of the East Sea of Korea,” the state-run Korea Central News Agency reported, using the North Korean name for the sea that lies between the Korean peninsula and Japan.
The missile was in the air for a longer time and at a higher maximum altitude than any missile the North has tested so far, the militaries of South Korea and Japan reported. The advanced missile could indicate that Pyongyang may eventually have the ability to hit any target in U.S. territory.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, during a meeting of the Group of Seven in Brussels, both condemned the launch and called for diplomacy and the need to hold Pyongyang “accountable,” the White House said in a statement. Kishida called the launch an “unacceptable act of violence.”
South Korean President Moon Jae-in, whose administration has prioritized North Korea engagement, also condemned the action, calling it “a breach of the moratorium on ICBM launches that Chairman Kim Jong Un himself promised to the international community.”
Moon’s term will end in May with the swearing in of President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol, who this month defeated the candidate representing Moon’s Democratic Party in South Korea's presidential election.
Yoon’s presidential transition team in a statement said that it was necessary to “strongly deal” with Pyongyang through close cooperation with Washington and the rest of the international community.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and South Korean Minister of National Defense Suh Wook said that “firm responses, including further actions from the UN Security Council, are necessary,” the U.S. Department of Defense said in a joint statement with its South Korean counterpart.
Several U.S. lawmakers on their respective chambers’ Armed Services Committees took to Twitter to urge Biden to take action on the matter.
“North Korea’s likely first ICBM test since 2017 is another example of how dangerous our world is becoming. @POTUS’s upcoming Nuclear Posture Review needs to accept the reality of these threats and endorse a strong, flexible U.S. deterrent,” said Sen. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, the committee’s top Republican.
Six countries including the U.S. requested that the U.N. Security Council hold an open briefing on Friday to discuss the launch, Olivia Dalton, the spokesperson for the U.S. Mission to the United Nations, said in a statement.
The launch “once again, brazenly violated multiple U.N. Security Council Resolutions,” she said.
U.N. Secretary General António Guterres through a spokesperson said the launch was “a significant escalation of tensions in the region.
“The secretary general urges the DPRK to desist from taking any further counterproductive actions,” the spokesperson said.
A man walks past a street TV showing a news program on North Korea's missile launch Thursday, March 24, 2022, in Tokyo. North Korea has fired possibly its biggest intercontinental ballistic missile toward the sea, raising the ante in a pressure campaign aimed at forcing the US and other rivals to accept it as a nuclear power and remove crippling sanctions. Photo: AP
Expect more
Analysts told RFA’s Korean Service Thursday said that Kim Jong Un may opt for more provocations in the near future.
The April 15 birthday of Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, national founder Kim Il Sung, is a major holiday and the younger Kim, in the 10th year of his rule, might try something on that day, Sue Mi Terry, director of the Center for Korean History and Public Policy at the Washingon-based Wilson Center, said during an event hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic International Studies.
“Potentially even a nuclear weapons test, whether on April 15th or in the coming months. So, you know, more bad news, I'm afraid, but I think this geostrategic environment is also conducive for more provocations, and we should expect more coming out of North Korea,” she said.
The launch should not surprise anyone, Joseph DeTrani, former senior adviser to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, told RFA.
“Kim Jong Un has been saying this at the Workers' Party Congress going over a year ago. He made it very clear that North Korea will continue to improve its nuclear and missile capabilities, and he cited very clearly that he would be working on improving upgrading missile capabilities to include a hypersonic ballistic missile or submarine launched ballistic missile, solid fuel missiles, merging them with multiple warheads on the missiles,” he said.
“I think North Korea could feel that they've proven to the world and to the United States and others that they have an intercontinental ballistic missile capability that can reach the whole of the United States and it reinforces Kim Jong Un's sense of having a nuclear deterrent that touches all countries,” said DeTani, who once served as special envoy to the Six Party Talks.
The exact nature of the missile launched Thursday requires more analysis, David Maxwell, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told RFA in a written statement.
“It is too early to make any definitive assessments about the type and actual capabilities of the missile. It is possible that it is an ICBM and that it very well may be able to range all of the U.S. What we do not know is if the regime has miniaturized a nuclear warhead,” Maxwell said.
“It should be clear that this is part of the regime's hostile policy toward the U.S. This also likely supports Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy (use of increased tensions, threats, and provocations) to gain political and economic concessions. While the regime continues to build advanced military capabilities it wants to first use those capabilities to extort concessions from the US and the international community,” he said.
But these tests are necessary to prove not that Pyongyang can launch a missile, but that it can land a warhead, Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at the Seoul-based Korea Institute for National Unification, told RFA.
“When a warhead enters orbit at a shallower angle, the warhead rotates at high speed, and it is pared off evenly at high heat so that it can re-enter orbit and aim toward the target while maintaining its center of gravity,” said Cho.
“North Korea needs these experiments to prove they have re-entry vehicle technology. However, in the case of a high-angle trajectory launch, it’s challenging to experiment properly,” he said.
Translated by Jung Woo Park. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this report quoted Sue Mi Terry as having been interviewed by RFA. Sue Mi Terry's comments were made at special discussion on the U.S.-ROK alliance hosted by CSIS on Thursday March 24.
9. US calls for stiffer UN sanctions against North Korea
Sanctions are not enough. Sanctions are a tool, not a strategy. We need information and influence, aggressive action against weapons proliferation and ship-to- ship transfer and other sanctions evasion activities, another major effort to crackdown on the regime's global illicit activities, and of course enhanced military readiness, most importantly we need a comprehensive strategy that focuses on solving the "Korea question." It is time to commit to that objective.
US calls for stiffer UN sanctions against North Korea | DW | 26.03.2022
DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
The United States has urged the UN Security Council to levy heavier sanctions against North Korea in light of its latest missile tests, but Russia and China have called for restraint.
The United States on Friday urged the international community to levy heavier sanctions against North Korea, at a UN Security Council meeting convened after Pyongyang test-fired its largest-ever intercontinental ballistic missile.
The test, conducted on Thursday, marked the first time North Korea had launched such a powerful weapon since 2017. UN Security Council resolutions have banned all North Korean ballistic missile and nuclear tests and placed sanctions on its weapons programs.
"It was an egregious and unprovoked escalation" that threatens the world, said Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the United Nations. The US joined Albania, France, Ireland, Norway and the United Kingdom in calling for the meeting.
"Because of DPRK's increasingly dangerous provocations, the United States will be introducing a ... Security Council resolution to update and strengthen the sanctions regime" that was adopted in December 2017, Thomas-Greenfield said, using the official acronym for North Korea.
Watch video 02:43
N. Korea 'one step closer to hitting the US'
Russia, China urge restraint
Despite several other members urging action, China and Russia — both veto-holding powers — warned against further sanctions.
Russian Deputy Ambassador Anna Evstigneeva said stronger sanctions would "threaten North Korean citizens with unacceptable socioeconomic and humanitarian problems." Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jun also urged the council "to consider how to accommodate the DPRK's justified security concerns."
Zhang said it was time for the US to "show its goodwill," indicating Washington didn't do enough in response to Pyongyang's 2018 self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear tests.
"Are they going to come up with concrete actions that can actually solve problems, or are they going to continue to use the [Korean] Peninsula as a bargaining chip in their geopolitical strategy?" he said.
Watch video 02:43
Frank Smith in Seoul comments on long-range missile test
Last fall, Russia and China had proposed lifting sanctions that keep neighbor North Korea from exporting seafood and textiles, and limit its imports of refined petroleum products. Sanctions also prohibit its citizens from working overseas and sending their earnings home.
see/sri (AFP, AP)
DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
10. Why Does North Korea Want ICBMs?
The reasons:
Military Equalization
Deter the US
Keep the Americans at Bay in a Future Korean Conflict
To the above I would add support to political warfare and blackmail diplomacy.
I do have to chuckle about the need to reconfigure US base presence. No disrespect meant to Professor Kelly but we had US forces dispersed at more than 90 bases in Korea but the impact on the Korean people was too great. We created third world problems in a now first world country so we mutually decided to consolidate bases for political and convenience reasons. Uniformed military advice at the time of the decisions to relocate and consolidate bases warned about the vulnerability we were creating by establishing what Kim Jong-un now calls the "fat target."
Conclusion:
As always, our options are terrible. We should continue to fund missile defense. It does not work very well, but we are desperate and even if we can only shoot down a few North Korean missiles, that is a few nuclear strikes we can avoid. We should also talk to North Korea, but in a far more serious manner than Trump’s vainglorious showboating. And at some point, the US might need to reconfigure its base presence in South Korea to be less vulnerable to North Korean missile strike hostage-takings.
Why Does North Korea Want ICBMs?
North Korea’s ICBM Launch: Learning from Russia Keeping NATO out of Ukraine? – North Korea just tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile. It appears that this is Pyongyang’s longest-range missile yet. The goal, obviously, is to strike the United States if necessary. North Korea has sought, and now likely achieved, the ability to directly threaten the US mainland with substantial nuclear force.
ICBMs normally are designed to deliver a nuclear payload. North Korea first detonated a nuclear weapon in 2006. It is widely assumed that it now has several dozen nuclear warheads. North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un has also hinted that he wishes to develop MIRVs (multiple, independently-targetable re-entry vehicles). This would permit each ICBM to carry multiple warheads. So even if only one North Korean ICBM were to survive American missile defense, it could then still devastate multiple American cities.
Much of this is already known. The North Koreans unilaterally halted testing in 2018 as a part of the negotiations between Kim and US President Donald Trump. Those negotiations failed, and administration of US President Joseph Biden is more hawkish than Trump on North Korea. Similarly, the incoming South Korean president is more hawkish than his predecessor. The North may have figured it was time to re-start testing to re-confirm its capabilities and send a message that it can strike.
North Korea is not irrational or suicidal. Its elites do not wish to arbitrarily nuke the United States. Kim is not Osama bin Laden. Instead, Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons serve specific strategic purposes:
Military Equalization
The most obvious benefit is the leveling of the military playing field between North Korea, and the United States and South Korea. North Korea is very poor. Its economy is only around 30 billion USD. South Korea’s, by contrast, is 1.7 trillion USD, and South Korea’s defense spending alone is greater than North Korea’s entire GDP. And of course, the United States adds even greater weight to the South Korean side.
North Korea can never hope to catch up to the conventional force arrayed against it. Although it maintains a large military and forward deploys it near the South Korean capital, that military uses aging equipment and likely lacks spare parts, fuel, food, and so on. And it would be nearly defenseless against allied airpower in a sustained conflict.
Nuclear weapons, including the possible development of small, battlefield nuclear weapons, dramatically reduce the yawning conventional gap.
Deter the US
Nukes in conjunction with ICBMs also allow North Korea to directly deter the United States. Previously, North Korean deterrence relied on conventional striking power aimed at US allies – South Korea and Japan. And indeed, this stayed America’s hand in past crises. The US has never struck North Korea in a crisis, unlike its routine use of force in the greater Middle East. That is almost certainly because we fear North Korean artillery strikes on South Korea or short-range missile strikes on Japan.
But nuclear ICBMs are far more immediate. They establish direct deterrence with the US, in parallel to America’s direct deterrence of the North. Both countries now have the ability to strike the other’s mainland. The US would do far more damage. America is also a large country that would likely still function even after a few nuclear strikes. And the US has missile defense which might shoot down some North Korea missiles. But still, the ability of North Korea to hit the US mainland almost certainly means that the US will never preemptively strike North Korea as Trump hinted at in 2017, and US President Bill Clinton before him in 1994. That window has now closed for good.
Keep the Americans at Bay in a Future Korean Conflict
Finally, North Korean nuclear ICBMs increase the likelihood that the US will not intervene in a Korean contingency for fear of North Korean nuclear retaliation. We see this behavior in Ukraine today. Russian President Vladimir Putin has successfully leveraged his nuclear weapons to keep NATO at bay during his war. NATO airpower could help the Ukrainians substantially. Indeed, it would likely help the Ukrainians win the win, which is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky keeps asking for a no-fly zone.
But NATO has hesitated, rightfully, because it fears that a no-fly zone could escalate into a shooting war with Russia, which might prompt Putin to use nuclear weapons in desperation. Putin has in fact hinted at exactly that scenario. This has stayed America’s hand, and Kim Jong Un is probably learning that lesson too.
North Korea wheeling out new Hwasong-17 ICBM. Image Credit: DPRK State Media.
North Korea ICBM. Image Credit: DPRK State Media.
If North Korea can frighten the Americans into staying out of Korean affairs, the likelihood of a favorable North Korean outcome improves dramatically. Nuclear weapons could be cover for North Korea to bully South Korea into submission – perhaps subsidizing North Korea indefinitely through an inter-Korean federation. Nukes might even block American intervention in a direct inter-Korean conflict, as it happening now in Ukraine. If North Korea were to use low-yield nuclear weapons on the battlefield against South Korean conventional superiority, while simultaneously keeping the Americans at bay with the threat of US mainland retaliation, Pyongyang might actually win a second Korean war.
Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; website) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University. Dr. Kelly is a 1945 Contributing Editor as well.
11. Experts: North Korea's New ICBM May Carry Multiple Nuclear Warheads
Comments from a number of missile experts.
Experts: North Korea's New ICBM May Carry Multiple Nuclear Warheads
March 25, 2022 3:07 AM
Washington —
Experts say the missile North Korea launched on Thursday involved a full flight test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with the potential for carrying multiple nuclear warheads and capable of targeting any location in the United States.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California, said North Korea is trying to demonstrate that it has "the ability to place multiple nuclear warheads [and hit] targets anywhere in the United States."
North Korea announced through its official Korean Central News Agency on Friday that its leader Kim Jong Un had ordered the launch of Hwasong-17 ICBM that flew 1,090 km and reached an altitude of 6,248 km, according to the Yonhap News Agency in South Korea.
People watch a TV showing a file image of North Korea's missile launch during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, March 24, 2022.
The launch was Pyongyang's 11th missile test of the year including one that failed on March 16. The test on Thursday officially ends a moratorium Pyongyang had adopted for itself in 2018 on testing a long-range ballistic missile.
Lewis said if the ICBM North Korea tested is in fact a Hwasong-17, it could potentially carry multiple nuclear warheads.
U.S. President Joe Biden met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Brussels on the sidelines of the G-7 meeting on the Ukraine crisis on Thursday and discussed North Korea's ICBM test. The two agreed to continue to work together to hold North Korea accountable. The Biden administration has been looking toward Toyko and Seoul to forge trilateral cooperation for dealing with Pyongyang.
Through a statement released on Thursday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, "The United States will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the American homeland and Republic of Korea and Japanese allies."
VOA's Korean Service contacted the North Korean mission at the U.N. but did not receive a reply.
Most powerful ICBM to date
Experts said the launch was a full flight test of an ICBM unlike the tests North Korea conducted on February 27 and March 4, which the U.S. has said did not demonstrate a full ICBM range.
"Based on the flight time and altitude, this was definitely a full test of an ICBM system," said Ian Williams, deputy director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The ICBM traveled higher and farther than the previous record-setter, the Hwasong-15, tested in November 2017, according to Bruce Bechtol, a former intelligence officer at the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and now a professor at Angelo State University in Texas.
"Based on mathematics of how high this missile flew and how long it flew … this [ICBM] could reach the entire mainland of the U.S.," Bechtol said.
The missile launched on Thursday peaked at 6,000 km in altitude and traveled 1,100 km in distance, according to an assessment by Japan's Defense Ministry.
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In comparison, the Hwasong-15 North Korea launched in November 2017 reached about 4,500 km at its highest altitude and 960 km in distance.
Bechtol said the Hwasong-15 tested in 2017 also showed the capability of reaching the entire U.S. mainland although it did not fly as high or as far as the ICBM tested on Thursday.
Lewis said the altitude and the distance that the missile traveled on Thursday indicated that it could cover a range of about 12,000 km if traveling on a trajectory aimed to hit a target and "can definitely cover the entire U.S."
Remaining hurdles
Experts said the ICBM appears capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, but whether it could deliver the warheads on a flight path over the U.S. remains to be seen.
Bruce Bennett, an adjunct defense researcher at the Rand Corporation, said the ICBM "could carry multiple nuclear warheads." He continued, "The question is how far could it carry them?"
A combination photo shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signing the order to test fire what state media report is a "new type" of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and a view of the order signed, in this undated photo released on March 25, 2022.
Bennett said North Korea has not demonstrated capabilities that it could deliver a nuclear warhead on an ICBM traveling on a trajectory that would fly over the U.S. atmosphere without the warhead burning up.
North Korea tests missiles by launching them into the atmosphere at a steep angle so they can travel on a so-called "lofted trajectory." Williams said so far, North Korea "has only tested ICBMs on lofted trajectories."
If North Korea shoots an ICBM on a non-lofted trajectory, Williams added, the missile will travel through more atmosphere, which would force a warhead on the ICBM to endure more heat stress than if it were traveling on a lofted trajectory.
A reentry vehicle carrying a nuclear warhead might not survive a non-lofted trajectory as it returns to Earth, Williams continued.
"North Korea has not yet fully demonstrated that its warheads can survive reentry under realistic conditions," Williams said. "This is, in my mind, the last piece of the puzzle that would remove all doubts that North Korea has developed a functional ICBM capable of delivering a warhead."
12. U.S. will introduce new UNSC resolution to strengthen sanctions on N. Korea: U.S. envoy
We can try. But the best we can likely achieve is again getting China and Russia on record as being complicit in all aspects of the north Korean problem from human rights abuses to nuclear and missile development in violation of previous UNSCRs.
(2nd LD) U.S. will introduce new UNSC resolution to strengthen sanctions on N. Korea: U.S. envoy | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from Russia's deputy ambassador to the U.N., minor edits in paras 14-18)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, March 25 (Yonhap) -- The United States will introduce a new U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolution that will update and strengthen UNSC sanctions against North Korea, the head of the U.S. mission to the U.N. said Friday.
Amb. Linda Thomas-Greenfield also called for full implementation of the existing sanctions on North Korea to prevent Pyongyang from engaging in further provocations.
"And because of DPRK's increasingly dangerous provocations, the United States will be introducing a chapter seven Security Council resolution to update and strengthen the sanctions regime," the U.S. envoy said in a UNSC meeting held in New York to discuss North Korea's latest missile launch, referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Pyongyang fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Thursday (Seoul time), following 11 previous rounds of missile tests this year that included the firing of a new hypersonic missile and an intermediate-range ballistic missile.
The latest missile launch also ended the North's self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile testing that had been in place since November 2017.
"The Security Council must speak publicly and with one voice to condemn the DPRK's unlawful actions and encourage the DPRK to return to the negotiating table," Thomas-Greenfield told the council meeting, broadcast live.
The rare public meeting of the UNSC on North Korea, the first of its kind since 2017, came at the request of the U.S. and five other members of the 15-member council, including Britain and France.
The U.S. diplomat reiterated that the United States remains open to dialogue with North Korea, but insisted that they cannot stand idly by until Pyongyang returns to dialogue.
"The United States remains committed to a diplomatic solution. We hope the DPRK will accept our repeated offers of dialogue. But we also cannot stand idly by in the face of the DPRK's repeated Security Resolution violations," said Thomas-Greenfield.
She also dismissed calls for sanctions relief for North Korea, saying, "Why should the Security Council reward bad behavior?"
"So now is not the time to end our sanctions. Now is the time to enforce them. The United States calls on all member states to fully implement the existing Security Council resolutions," she added.
It was not immediately clear when the U.S. planned to introduce a new UNSC resolution, while whether it will be adopted also remains to be seen.
The U.S. had previously sought to impose additional UNSC sanctions on North Korea following Pyongyang's repeated missile provocations this year, but efforts have so far failed due to opposition from Russia and China, both veto power-wielding permanent members of the Security Council and close allies of North Korea.
Russia quickly opposed the U.S.' call for enhanced sanctions on North Korea, saying it will create "unacceptable socio-economic and humanitarian problems" for the people of North Korea.
Anna Evstigneeva, Russian deputy ambassador to the U.N., instead accused the United States and its allies of unnecessarily escalating tension with North Korea through what he called unilateral and autonomous sanctions against North Korea.
"Unilateral restrictions not only disdain the sovereignty and legal interests of member states and contradict the norms and rules of international trade, but also undermine the integrity of the limitations that are agreed within the Security Council," she said.
Thomas-Greenfield insisted the Security Council must not remain silent.
"It is clear that the DPRK has escalated its provocations with impunity, while the council has remained silent," she said, noting recent satellite imagery has also suggested that the North is reconstructing the Punggye-ri nuclear test site that it purportedly dismantled in 2018 to show its willingness to denuclearize.
"And it is clear that remaining silent in the hope that the DPRK would similarly show restraint is a failed strategy," added the U.S. diplomat.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
13. Three principles for the transition
Wise advice.
Rule #1 is to “Move the people.”
Rule #2 is to “Control yourself and look farther.”
Rule #3 is to “Value invisible functions.”
Thursday
March 24, 2022
Three principles for the transition
Kim hyun-ku
The author is a professor emeritus of Sungkyunkwan University and former head of the Korea Association for Public Administration.
The presidential transition committee has started full operations and is drawing a sketch of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, which will launch on May 10. Yoon, who served as prosecutor general, emphasized through the campaign that he was a “presidential candidate nurtured by the people” and he “would only look at the people.” The transition team will need the following three rules to find the right path.
Rule #1 is to “Move the people.” A president’s administration is not evaluated like a business based on outcomes but is also politically evaluated. The transition team needs to focus on future-oriented reforms to impress the public while reviewing the validity and realistic possibility of fulfilling campaign promises. Let’s look at three examples of political, legal and administrative reforms.
First, people are impressed by broad determination in their leader. In Korean society, privileges for lawyers who were prosecutors and judges are openly granted, but the defense of the people dominating the core of the political power is impregnable. Can the new president speak of “fairness and common sense” while neglecting the grim reality where “people with money are innocent and people without money are guilty?” A president coming from a legal background should make a bold decision to chip away at the impregnable fortress of our legal circles.
Second, people are impressed by tolerance and concessions from a winner. Public broadcasters that defended the Moon Jae-in administration’s mistakes partly hastened the fall of the administration. Past administrations, too, dominated public broadcasters, but the Moon administration crossed the line. This vicious cycle should be broken. The transition team needs to define the principle and direction of the management structure to turn the “administration’s broadcasters” to “the people’s broadcasters.”
Third, people are impressed by honest and transparent execution of public authority. It is no exaggeration that the public recruitment of public agency heads based on the Act on Operation of Public Agencies has been a nominal process with candidates internally chosen by the Blue House. It became a rite of passage to provide justification to the chosen candidates by making other candidates sidekicks in the appointment process. Will the new president continue to deceive people with such a nominal process? He needs to either restore the purpose of public recruitment or change to an appointment system that makes the appointee assume responsibility.
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol presides over a meeting Tuesday at the office of his transition committee near the Blue House to discuss the direction of his administration over the next five years. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
Rule #2 is to “Control yourself and look farther.” According to neuropsychologist Ian Robertson’s “Winner Effect,” a winner’s brain secretes dopamine, a neurological receptor of “self-conviction,” and the winner gets “tunnel vision” to only look ahead and dash. A winner can only see and hear what he wants to, and can easily ride populist promises or stances for instant gratification. President Moon’s policy direction was an archetype of this phenomenon. Yoon’s transition team should be wary of the shortsightedness of being obsessed over visible outcomes within the term. The president-elect should be conscious of history’s evaluation in the future and look at today’s imperatives with a grain of salt.
Rule #3 is to “Value invisible functions.” Visible ministerial mergers can project an illusion that a president has accomplished something big. But policy outcome depends on the software of leadership and operation rather than the hardware of the organizational structure. That’s the lesson we learned from countless government reorganizations in transitional periods. Unless it is inevitable, it is better to focus on functional reform rather than structural reform to address coordination and cooperation among ministries, evaluation and outcome management, quality and utility of service, redistribution of human resources sand system reform.
Strategic priorities need to be defined for selected tasks by considering the gravity of problems, required resources, people’s interests and political factors. If the transition committee wants to faithfully reflect people’s desire for administrative change, it needs to listen to expert opinions and hear the people’s voices with an open mind and a humble attitude.
Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
14. North Korea's ICBM launch complicates President-elect Yoon's defense vision
We need strength and resolve.
Excerpt:
To counter North Korea's emerging threats, Yoon is expected to send Rep. Park Jin, who is rumored to be named as his special envoy to the U.S., to Washington to have discussions with his counterparts in the near future.
North Korea's ICBM launch complicates President-elect Yoon's defense vision
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol gets in a vehicle as he leaves his office in Tongui-dong, Jongno District, Friday. Joint Press Corps
Further provocations expected ahead of April's joint military exercise between Seoul, Washington
By Nam Hyun-woo
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's leadership being put to the test after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gave his military the greenlight to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Thursday, marking a return to nuclear brinkmanship.
According to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, the North fired the missile from a location near Sunan airport in Pyongyang. The missile traveled 1,080 kilometers before reaching a maximum altitude of over 6,200 kilometers, attributes which place the projectile in the category of ICBMs.
The North's state-run Korean Central News Agency also confirmed on Friday that the missile was the Hwasong-17 ICBM and that its leader said Pyongyang should prepare for "a long-standing confrontation" with the U.S.
It was seen as Pyongyang's most powerful ICBM to date and marked an end to the Kim regime's self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests, meaning inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea relations have now rolled back to the status before Kim, President Moon Jae-in, and U.S. President Donald Trump engaged in peace talks in 2018.
The launch was also a sign that the Moon administration's peace efforts during the past five years were in vain. The latest provocation also tests the diplomatic skills of President-elect Yoon, who has been emphasizing South Korea's enhanced defense capability and stronger Seoul-Washington alliance as a deterrence to North Korea's threats.
In this photo carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Friday, a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile is displayed before a test launch on Thursday. Yonhap
"It was the 12th North Korean provocation and I warn North Korea that it will gain nothing from provocations," Yoon wrote on Facebook, Friday. "South Korea will strengthen its security preparedness to protect peace and freedom."
Yoon's spokesperson, Rep. Kim Eun-hye of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), told reporters Friday that the launch contains "two messages for the U.S. and South Korea."
"I believe the North has sent a message to the U.S., as President Joe Biden's focus is now on Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Kim said. "Also, Pyongyang has long been taking steps to obtain a strategic advantage amid Seoul's power transition. When South Korea is inaugurating a new government, North Korea has been showcasing that it can wage a bold provocation."
During his campaign, the President-elect pledged to strengthen a three-axis air defense system, comprised of the Kill Chain preemptive strike system, the Korean Air and Missile Defense and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan.
Kill Chain refers to a South Korea-U.S. strike system of identifying North Korean launch sites, nuclear facilities and manufacturing capabilities and destroy them pre-emptively if a conflict seems imminent.
Also, Yoon promised to set up additional U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries on South Korean soil, in order to protect the country from North Korea's high-angle launch missiles and other artillery.
The North bristled at those pledges and its radio outlet, Echo of Unification, described Yoon as a "warmonger." But Yoon continues to stick to a hardline approach on security issues. On Tuesday, Yoon said North Korea's latest test launch was "a clear violation of an inter-Korean military agreement reached on Sept. 19, 2018."
In this photo carried by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on Friday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, walks around the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on a launcher near Pyongyang, Thursday.
Yonhap
Against this backdrop, further provocations from North Korea are anticipated as the U.S. and South Korean militaries stage joint military exercises next month. April also marks the birth anniversary of North Korea's founder Kim Il-sung. And this leaves Yoon with no option but to take a hawkish stance towards Pyongyang, whether his administration wants it or not, according to experts.
"Frankly, there are not many options left for the President-elect, President Moon and even the U.S. but to turn to a hawkish stance," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University.
"Since the North announced its intention to stick to its own nuclear development plan earlier this year, it did not hesitate in ending the moratorium, meaning the regime will likely pursue its goal of producing various nuclear weapons regardless of outside pressure. The only way that looks effective is joining other countries to impose stronger sanctions on North Korea, but this also relates to the North's relations with China."
Park said sanctioning Pyongyang hinges on China's participation in the U.N. Security Council's efforts for North Korea sanctions, which is eventually dependent on Beijing-Washington relations and other countries demanding sanctions. The issue is further complicated by NATO members' claims that China is backing Russia's war against Ukraine.
South Korea will attend a U.N. Security Council meeting on North Korea, scheduled in New York on Friday afternoon (local time), but chances are slim that China will join sanctions. The Security Council held five closed-door meetings regarding North Korea's missile threats, but failed to come up with an official or binding response, due to opposition from China and Russia.
"From Yoon's perspective, the strengthening of South Korea's deterrence will be the first point, but he also has to think about a new paradigm in his North Korea policy, such as how South Korea can coexist with a nuclear-armed North Korea," Park said.
In line with such anticipation, Yoon's spokesperson Kim also said the President-elect will keep his pledge on additional THAAD batteries, although "the process remains to be seen."
To counter North Korea's emerging threats, Yoon is expected to send Rep. Park Jin, who is rumored to be named as his special envoy to the U.S., to Washington to have discussions with his counterparts in the near future.
15. What to Expect for US-ROK Relations and Inter-Korean Relations Under Yoon Suk-yeol
A rundown of some of the key issues.
As President-elect Yoon said in his Forieng Affairs article. It is time for South korea step up.
Conclusion:
The time has come for South Korea to think about its diplomatic balance and it should prepare for an international order where it is increasingly difficult to maintain strategic ambiguity. In order for middle-power countries, such as the ROK, to ensure strategic autonomy, it is necessary to actively secure diplomatic space with South Korea’s national interest rather than passively responding to external changes. To do so, it is of utmost importance to choose diplomacy according to the ROK’s national identity and priorities. Currently, most of the issues that the US and China clash over in their strategic competition are of a zero-sum nature, and South Korea will inevitably have to choose a side on the issues that reflect its own national identity. Whereas, if the ROK continues its strategic ambiguity while delaying its choice, it is likely to receive the cold shoulder instead of a warm embrace from either the US or China.
As a liberal democracy and a market economy country, South Korea’s choice is obvious. However, how to minimize the risks that accompany this choice amidst growing global uncertainties will be an important task for the new Yoon Suk-yeol administration.
What to Expect for US-ROK Relations and Inter-Korean Relations Under Yoon Suk-yeol - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
2022 Election Outcome
On March 9, the conservative People Power Party’s candidate, Yoon Suk-yeol, was elected the next president of South Korea, with 48.56 percent of the electorate vote over his main opponent, Democratic Party’s Lee Jae Myung, 47.83 percent. Since the introduction of direct elections, conservative and progressive parties have been in power alternately for 10-year blocks, from the conservative governments of Roh Tae-woo and Kim Young-sam; to the liberal governments of Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun; back to the conservative administrations of Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye. This year’s election broke that streak, with the liberal party unable to clinch a successive liberal administration after Moon Jae-in. Moreover, given that Moon took office due to the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye and had strong public support in the early days of its inauguration, this change in government after only five years was quite unexpected.
Under President-elect Yoon, significant changes are expected in South Korea’s approach to both North Korea and foreign policy in general. Whereas Moon focused on building an inter-Korean peace process, Yoon is expected to follow in the footsteps of previous conservative administrations and put the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)’s complete denuclearization as the basis of improving inter-Korean relations while working toward establishing a “comprehensive strategic alliance” with the United States. That means both deepening economic and political ties with Washington, as well as expanding that cooperation beyond the Korean Peninsula to address more regional and global challenges.
Yoon’s Close Victory
Why did Korean voters choose Yoon Suk-yeol? This election was unprecedented among all South Korean presidential elections as it was stained with negative campaigns without debate about policy vision or direction. The two driving forces of this election were populism and mudslinging. The welfare populism presented by the two candidates reached a level that is difficult for both the ruling and opposition parties to reverse.
Shifts in North Korean Policy and Foreign Policy
President-elect Yoon outlined in a post-election speech how South Korea’s daunting task is to strengthen its global diplomatic capabilities amidst growing North Korean nuclear threats and strategic competition tensions between US and China. He also noted that it is important to build strong defense capabilities that can reliably suppress any provocation in order to protect the safety, property, territory and sovereignty of the people. Yoon said he would deal firmly with North Korea’s illegal and unreasonable actions on principle but would leave the door open for inter-Korean dialogue at any time. He also declared that the Republic of Korea (South Korea, or ROK) should be reborn as a “global pivotal state” that contributes to freedom, peace and prosperity based on bold diplomacy and strong security.
Regarding US-ROK relations, Yoon went on to say that he would rebuild the US-ROK alliance and strengthen a comprehensive strategic alliance by sharing the core values of liberal democracy, market economy and human rights. As for China and Japan, he said he intends to develop mutually respectful ROK-China relations, create future-oriented ROK-Japan relations and strengthen diplomacy around economic security by establishing a tailored global cooperation network for each region. He also declared he would make South Korea a respected country that fulfills its role and responsibility in the international community.
Beyond the lofty rhetoric in his speech, Yoon is expected to bring about significant changes to South Korea’s approach to North Korea and the US-ROK alliance. Regarding the ROK’s North Korea policy, liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung proposed establishing a peaceful economy system on the Korean Peninsula based on a virtuous cycle of peace and economic co-prosperity, a pledge not much different from his predecessor, Moon Jae-in’s approach. These goals reflect a functionalist approach that has been continuously pursued by progressive governments since the Kim Dae-jung administration.
In contrast, Yoon has emphasized that the abolition of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is a prerequisite for all further engagement with the North, making the “realization of North Korea’s complete denuclearization” the top foreign and security policy priority. Yoon’s proposal can be seen as the successor of Lee Myung-bak’s “Vision 3000: Denuclearization and Openness” plan and Park Geun-hye’s “Trust-Building Process on the Korean Peninsula,” as it mentions that economic support for North Korea is possible even before the denuclearization process is completed if practical denuclearization measures are taken by the DPRK. In particular, Yoon pledged his intention to respond to North Korea based on close coordination with the US. He referred to current international cooperation in implementing the United Nations Security Council’s sanctions on North Korea, and, like Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, he emphasized denuclearizing the DPRK via maximum pressure. More specifically, he believes nuclear negotiations with North Korea should be conducted on the principle of reciprocity and require a predictable denuclearization roadmap that specifies reciprocal measures according to a step-by-step denuclearization process. While this is not much different from the ROK’s existing denuclearization negotiation method, it does require North Korea to make the first move, unlike Moon’s willingness to jump start negotiations with peace initiatives up front.
In regards to foreign policy, Lee Jae-myung proposed improving national safety and citizens’ quality of life through practical diplomacy centered on national interests. His phrase “practical diplomacy” can be defined as: “foreign policy based on national interests that do not insist on specific ideologies or values.” Many viewed this as a pledge to simultaneously pursue strengthening strategic cooperation in the US-ROK alliance and maintain a strategic partnership with China.
Yoon Suk-yeol, on the other hand, pledged to pursue a comprehensive strategic alliance between South Korea and the US as a key foreign policy priority, which is seen as a continuation of the “comprehensive strategic alliance” emphasized during the Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye administrations. “Comprehensive strategic alliance” is the expansion of relations between the ROK and the United States beyond the domains of military and security cooperation into such realms as politics, economics, society and culture.
Moon Jae-in’s government had also agreed to a similar approach with the United States, but Yoon views the current US-ROK relationship as in a crisis of trust because of disagreements over how to deal with North Korea and Moon’s strategic ambiguity between the US and China. Yoon wants to try to reinvigorate the alliance to the level upheld by Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye. Yoon has said he will actively cooperate with the US for the future vision and common interests of the Asia-Pacific region and global order. In particular, he stressed that South Korea would actively participate in cooperative mechanisms, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), by pursuing policies based on liberal democratic values. Regarding the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON), Yoon has mentioned that it is possible “if South Korea is equipped with appropriate capabilities,” but has not specifically suggested under what conditions the transfer would be made.
Finally, Yoon has promised to establish a future-oriented ROK-Japan cooperative relationship based on correct historical awareness under the banner of “The Era of Kim Dae-jung-Obuchi Declaration 2.0.” Japan’s Kishida government is also sending positive signals to Yoon, but ROK-Japan relations are unlikely to improve overnight. This is because various challenges are intertwined, including the ruling on compensation for forced laborers and Japanese military sexual slavery victims, export regulations to South Korea, the release of contaminated water from Fukushima, the listing of Sado Mine as a UNESCO World Heritage Site and the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). Notwithstanding, Yoon does have a more flexible view of ROK-Japan relations than Moon’s administration, so there is reason for some optimism in this case.
Challenges Ahead for the Yoon Administration
There are a lot of internal and external challenges facing the Yoon administration. In domestic politics, Yoon Suk-yeol, who won the election by such a narrow margin, faces a situation where he has to launch his administration with less than a majority of electoral votes and while his party holds only 110 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly. Yoon’s government needs to execute political reform and integration tasks when a rough road regarding the composition of the cabinet and state administration most likely lies ahead. In addition, South Korea’s status and role in the US-China strategic competition needs to be redefined. Economically, Yoon faces the task of increasing jobs—especially white-collar jobs for an overeducated, underemployed workforce—and pushing the country to be a future science and technology powerhouse through achieving innovative growth.
When Yoon won the election, sighs of relief emanated from Tokyo and Washington, along with grunts of disapproval echoing through Beijing and Pyongyang. On the campaign trail, Yoon signaled a more pro-Japan, pro-US policy, and the leaders of those nations swiftly congratulated his victory.
Nevertheless, the foreign policy challenge that exists is as significant as the one that exists in South Korea’s domestic politics. The foreign policy environment and conditions that the next South Korean government will face can be summarized into three sets of challenges. First, the international situation is expected to continue systemic fragmentation due to intensifying competition among global powers, deteriorating international governance, and the weakening of institutions and norms worldwide, due to the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Second, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is pushing the world into a second Cold War. Eastern European countries, which are now facing the likelihood of a new Russian threat, are liable to demand an increased presence of US troops and strengthened financial guarantees. Furthermore, US strategy is likely to make a U-turn from Asia to pivot toward Europe. This means that the US has to simultaneously deal with the two front lines of China and Russia, which will inevitably weaken the Indo-Pacific strategy. As the Ukrainian war rapidly transforms the world into a confrontation between liberal democracy and authoritarian states with US-Europe vs. China-Russia, Korea should pay attention to minimizing the risks posed when choosing a side.
Third, the strategic situation on the Korean Peninsula can be summarized as a peace process that is extremely unclear due to being under the triple distress of the suspension of nuclear negotiations between the US and North Korea, the suspension of inter-Korean dialogue and North Korea’s voluntary isolation since the pandemic erupted. Meanwhile, the DPRK has already launched its tenth missile test this year and invaded the Northern Limit Line (NLL) for the first time since the two Koreas signed the Comprehensive Military Agreement on September 19, 2018. Furthermore, a new building has been built on the site of the partially dismantled Punggye-ri nuclear test site, and efforts to restore at least some part of the site for future nuclear testing are suspected.
What the Yoon government should keep in mind when confronting such tremendous domestic and international challenges is a sense of strong self-defense and solidarity. Self-reliance, or self-defense, refers to South Korea demonstrating a strong will to be self-reliant in protecting its security and securing the hard power to support it. Solidarity refers to deciding who, what and how South Korea will cooperate to achieve security and prosperity. After Russia’s surprise invasion of Ukraine, geopolitical concerns for countries that are caught up in a great power rivalry, such as Ukraine and South Korea, are expected to deepen.
The time has come for South Korea to think about its diplomatic balance and it should prepare for an international order where it is increasingly difficult to maintain strategic ambiguity. In order for middle-power countries, such as the ROK, to ensure strategic autonomy, it is necessary to actively secure diplomatic space with South Korea’s national interest rather than passively responding to external changes. To do so, it is of utmost importance to choose diplomacy according to the ROK’s national identity and priorities. Currently, most of the issues that the US and China clash over in their strategic competition are of a zero-sum nature, and South Korea will inevitably have to choose a side on the issues that reflect its own national identity. Whereas, if the ROK continues its strategic ambiguity while delaying its choice, it is likely to receive the cold shoulder instead of a warm embrace from either the US or China.
As a liberal democracy and a market economy country, South Korea’s choice is obvious. However, how to minimize the risks that accompany this choice amidst growing global uncertainties will be an important task for the new Yoon Suk-yeol administration.
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For instance, in 2019, the Korean public was extremely divided over accusations of forgery and preferential treatment in college and internship applications surrounding the daughter of Cho Kuk, President Moon’s former justice minister and one of his closest allies.
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When Seoul decided to deploy a US-led missile shield system in Seongju, South Korea, about six years ago, China retaliated by banning sales of group tour packages and Korean celebrities from appearing on Chinese television.
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naeronambul (내로남불, “mine is a romance, yours is an affair”). Since Moon proposed fairness and integration as the political goal of his administration, expectations were understandably high in his early days in power. However, a series of scandals involving Moon’s close advisers led to national hostility and division.[1] This did not bode well for the ruling party in this election. Certainly, the last-minute merger with Ahn Cheol-soo’s People’s Party helped Yoon prevail as well.
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“three no’s policy” adopted by the Moon government in 2017 after months of harsh Chinese sanctions against South Korea for the original deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), but also expressed his intention to introduce additional THAAD units if necessary.[2] The policy of actively participating in the Quad is also expected to have a negative impact on ROK-China relations. In the People Power Party’s election pledge book, the ROK-China relationship was described as one that is based on mutual respect, but new tensions are expected if ROK-China relations are reset.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
