Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"We hereby declare that Korea is an independent state and that Koreans are a self-governing people. We proclaim this fact to all nations to reaffirm the great truth that all humans are equal, so that our descendants may forever enjoy their rights to live as an autonomous people.

This declaration of ours is propelled by the strength of our five thousand years of history and the shared will of twenty million Koreans. It is made so that our nation may thrive in perpetuity and be in step with the larger trend of global evolution that is being shaped by the conscience of humanity. This is the will of heaven and the spirit of our time, and it springs from the rights all humans deserve. Nothing in the world shall stand in the way of our independence...."
- The March First Declaration of Independence (March 1, 1919)
https://overseas.mofa.go.kr/us-losangeles-en/brd/m_4394/view.do?seq=761378

This is why the Ukrainians will successfully defend their country and prevail in the long term:
"Ukranian woman teaching her people how to operate abandoned Russian tanks" (actually an APC but close enough for resistance work)
https://www.reddit.com/r/MadeMeSmile/comments/t3lx16/ukranian_woman_teaching_her_people_how_to_operate/?utm

"We can't stop the missiles with demonstrations but we can show that we are all supporting the truth"
Thousands protest against Russia across European cities


1. U.S.South Korea Relations Updated
2. U.S. and 9 other UNSC members condemn N. Korean missile launch, urge Pyongyang to engage
3. . S. Korea to end transactions with major Russian banks under U.S. sanctions
4. N.K. propaganda machine calls for strong armed forces on uprising anniversary
5.  Moon voices concern about 'new Cold War,' urges Japan to squarely face history
6. N.K. leader urges 'devoted march for people'
7. North Korea says it tested cameras for spy satellite
8. N. Korea blames U.S. 'hegemonic policy' for Ukraine crisis
9. N. Korea slams U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy as anti-China 'document of confrontation'
10. Experts paint dark outlook for inter-Korean relations this year
11. Yoon says N. Korea's lifting of moratorium 'matter of time'
12.  Ukraine crisis worries South Koreans who fear Kim Jong-un could pull same move as Russia’s Putin, as North resumes missile tests
13. N. Korea launches ballistic missile amid Ukraine invasion (OPED)
14. Moon says door remains open for dialogue with Japan
15. North Korea still claims zero cases of COVID-19
16. Russians in Korea unite against Putin's war on Ukraine
17. Case for South Korean sanctions on Russia



1.  U.S.South Korea Relations Updated
The 61 page report from the COngressional REsearch Service can be downloaded here: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41481

The summary and table of contents are below.

This is a very useful report on the current state on the full range of ROK-US relations.

U.S.South Korea Relations Updated 
February 24, 2022 
Congressional Research Service 

U.S.-South Korea Relations
February 24, 2022
Summary
Overview
South Korea (officially the Republic of Korea or ROK) is one of the United States’ most important strategic and economic partners in Asia. The 1953 U.S.-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty commits the United States to help South Korea defend itself. Approximately 28,500 U.S. troops are based in the ROK, which is included under the U.S. “nuclear umbrella.” The two countries’ economies are joined by the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). South Korea is the United States’ seventh-largest trading partner and the United States is South Korea’s second-largest trading partner. South Korean President Moon Jae-in, a left-of-center politician elected in 2017, is due to leave office in May 2022.
In recent years, Members of Congress have expressed interest in and conducted oversight over U.S.-ROK cooperation over North Korea policy, the U.S. military presence in South Korea, bilateral trade and investment flows, the state of political and civil rights in South Korea, and other issues. South Korea’s rise into the ranks of the world’s top industrialized economies and most powerful militaries has prompted many Members to explore whether and how the ROK government, companies, and organizations can serve as partners in many U.S. Indo-Pacific initiatives, particularly on those that involve the People’s Republic of China (PRC, or China). ROK officials generally are reluctant to raise objections about PRC behavior that does not directly affect South Korea, though this may be changing due to rising negative attitudes towards China among South Koreans.
Coordination of North Korea Policy
Dealing with North Korea (officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK) is the dominant bilateral strategic concern and the Biden and Moon governments have worked to harmonize their approaches and minimize public disagreements. The Biden Administration policy, which Moon has welcomed, appears to envision incrementally offering partial sanctions relief in exchange for partial steps toward denuclearization. During his tenure, Moon has more aggressively promoted engagement initiatives with the DPRK, which he says are critical to prevent military conflict and establish a durable peace on the Korean Peninsula. U.N. and U.S. sanctions, which have reduced DPRK exports by around 90%, severely limit Seoul’s ability to conduct inter-Korean cooperation activities. Since early 2019, the DPRK largely has ignored U.S. and ROK outreach, including offers of humanitarian aid.
The U.S.-ROK Alliance
For nearly two decades, the United States and South Korea have accelerated steps to reform their alliance, including relocating U.S. troops on the Korean Peninsula, boosting ROK defense capabilities, and preparing to transfer wartime operational control (OPCON) to a binational command led by an ROK general with a U.S. deputy. Under the existing arrangement, South Korean soldiers would be under a binational command led by a U.S. general in the event of war. Many of President Donald Trump’s actions and words strained the alliance, and the Biden Administration in its first year in office sought to repair the rifts, particularly by renewing an agreement on sharing the costs of South Korea hosting U.S. troops that had expired under the Trump Administration. Polls in recent years indicate over 85% of South Koreans say they value the U.S.-ROK alliance.
Bilateral Economic Relations
The KORUS FTA has been the centerpiece of U.S.-South Korea trade and investment relations since its entry into force in 2012. Most U.S. business groups support the agreement, highlighting market access improvements in South Korea and a more robust mechanism for dispute resolution, but some U.S. stakeholders have raised concerns over an increase in the bilateral U.S. trade deficit since the agreement took effect. The two countries continue to engage on KORUS FTA implementation issues using the agreement’s consultative mechanisms. Bilateral trade frictions have been less pronounced under President Biden than under the Trump Administration, in line with the Biden Administration’s interest in working with allies to address global economic challenges and ensure greater U.S. supply chain security and reliability. However, President Biden has maintained several unilateral U.S. import restrictions affecting major South Korean industries, such as steel, washing machines, and solar panels, which were imposed by President Trump using trade authorities delegated by Congress.
 
Contents
South Korea’s Response to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
2. U.S. and 9 other UNSC members condemn N. Korean missile launch, urge Pyongyang to engage

Excerpts:
They also called on all U.N. member states to fully implement U.N. Security Council resolutions, insisting they will "obligate the DPRK to abandon its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner."
"The international sanctions regime is an important tool for addressing this threat to international peace and security," they added.
U.S. and 9 other UNSC members condemn N. Korean missile launch, urge Pyongyang to engage | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 1, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Feb. 28 (Yonhap) -- The United States and nine other member countries of the U.N. Security Council on Monday condemned North Korea's recent missile launch while urging Pyongyang to engage in sustained dialogue.
The call came in a joint press conference that followed a closed-door meeting of the U.N. Security Council to discuss issues including North Korea's latest missile test.
"The DPRK's February 27 (local time) launch of a ballistic missile is yet another example of the DPRK's recent pattern of destabilizing behaviors," the representatives from 10 U.N. Security Council member states said in a joint statement that was also signed by the chief of the South Korean mission to the U.N.
South Korea currently is not a member of the U.N. Security Council. DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.
"This is the 10th ballistic missile launch so far this year, each one a violation of multiple Security Council resolutions. We condemn these unlawful and destabilizing actions in the strongest terms," they added.

Pyongyang staged seven rounds of missile launches in January alone, the largest number of missile tests it conducted in a single month.
The North has said the missile launched Sunday was a test to support the development of a "reconnaissance satellite."
"Multiple Security Council resolutions expressly prohibit the DPRK from conducting launches that use ballistic missile technology. This launch is a clear violation of multiple resolutions and should be condemned by the Council," the U.N. representatives said.
They also called on all U.N. member states to fully implement U.N. Security Council resolutions, insisting they will "obligate the DPRK to abandon its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner."
"The international sanctions regime is an important tool for addressing this threat to international peace and security," they added.
Still, diplomats from 10 countries also reaffirmed their commitment to engage with North Korea.
"We remain committed to seeking serious and sustained diplomacy and urge Pyongyang to respond positively to outreach from the United States and others. We urge the DPRK to choose the path of diplomacy to ease regional tensions and promote international peace and security," said the joint statement.
The 10 countries include the U.S., Albania, Australia, Brazil, Britain, France, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand and Norway.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 1, 2022


3. S. Korea to end transactions with major Russian banks under U.S. sanctions

The right thing to do.

(LEAD) S. Korea to end transactions with major Russian banks under U.S. sanctions | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · March 1, 2022
(ATTN: ADDS more info from 10th para, 2nd photo)
SEOUL, March 1 (Yonhap) -- South Korea said Tuesday it plans to suspend financial transactions with seven major Russian banks and their affiliates in a bid to join global efforts to impose financial sanctions against Moscow over its attack on Ukraine.
The government said it will also "strongly" recommend local public and financial institutions halt their investment in Russian government bonds that will be issued starting Wednesday.
The decision came as Seoul has decided to join the multinational move to remove Russia from the SWIFT international settlement network over its invasion of Ukraine.
The Seoul government said it plans to halt financial transactions with seven major Russian banks and its affiliates slapped under U.S. sanctions.
The banks include Russian top lender Sberbank and state-owned banks VEB and PSB.
But the government said it will also apply the same standards as the U.S. when it comes to transactions that will be exceptionally allowed, such as in agriculture, COVID-19 medical support and energy supplies.
South Korea said it plans to immediately implement the SWIFT-related sanctions once the European Union unveils a detailed action plan.
The U.S. and its allies have tightened sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, as they agreed to exclude some Russian banks from SWIFT, an international settlement system where trillions of dollars change hands for cross-border payments.
But a list of selected Russian banks subject to the sanctions and the timing of the implementation of the punitive actions have yet to be announced.

Earlier, First Vice Finance Minister Lee Eog-weon met his U.S. counterpart, Wally Adeyemo, in Washington and said South Korea is reviewing imposing additional sanctions against Russia.
"As a member of the international community with responsibility, the South Korean government actively supports major nations' efforts to solve the crisis," Lee said. "Starting with export ban of strategic materials to Russia, we are reviewing additional sanction measures."
On Monday, the foreign ministry announced exports of strategic materials to Russia will be banned.
Seoul's additional measures are expected to be related with export controls regarding advanced technologies and high-tech products.
The government has already said it plans to finalize a decision on possible steps it can take in connection with U.S. standalone export curbs against Russia on dozens of items, such as semiconductors, computers, telecommunications, information security equipment, lasers and sensors.

sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · March 1, 2022


4. N.K. propaganda machine calls for strong armed forces on uprising anniversary

Korea on both sides of the DMZ is celebrating Korean Independence Day with different messages.


N.K. propaganda machine calls for strong armed forces on uprising anniversary | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · March 1, 2022
SEOUL, March 1 (Yonhap) -- A North Korean propaganda outlet on Tuesday marked the anniversary of a 1919 uprising against Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule with calls for loyalty to the leader and strong armed forces.
Meari, a propaganda website, said the March 1 Independence Movement gave lessons that such an uprising can succeed only when led by "an outstanding leader" and that armed forces are the only way to deal with armed aggressors.
"Our people risked sacrifices and fought bravely but could not overcome the enemy's brutal crackdown," Meari said in an article, highlighting the need for building strong armed forces.
It also slammed Japan for trying to evade responsibility for wartime atrocities.
"If it committed a crime, it should acknowledge that and provide compensation," the website said in a separate article, referring to Tokyo's sexual enslavement of Korean women during World War II. "Up until today, however, Japan is trying to evade its responsibility while distorting history."
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · March 1, 2022


5.  Moon voices concern about 'new Cold War,' urges Japan to squarely face history


(3rd LD) Moon voices concern about 'new Cold War,' urges Japan to squarely face history | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · March 1, 2022
(ATTN: ADDS remarks, details)
By Kim Deok-hyun
SEOUL, March 1 (Yonhap) -- President Moon Jae-in on Tuesday expressed his concern about a "new Cold War" and nationalism seeking to gain hegemony by force, as Russia pressed ahead with its invasion of Ukraine despite global condemnation and sanctions.
In a speech marking Korea's 1919 nationwide uprising against Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule, Moon emphasized that South Korea should have the power to prevent itself being pushed around by global powers.
"The international order is fluctuating amid the COVID-19 crisis," Moon said. "State-centered nationalism, which seeks to gain hegemony by force, is also raising its head again. Concerns over a new Cold War are on the rise as well."
Moon said the lesson from the spirit of the 1919 uprising "gives us today is that we should have the power to lead our history without being pushed around by an international order centered on powerful countries."
Moon's speech came a day after South Korea said it will ban exports of strategic items to Russia and join international sanctions to exclude major Russian financial institutions from a key global payment system to increase pressure over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The remarks were seen as a veiled condemnation against Russia's military action.
Moon said South Korea is "imbued with the spirit" of the 1919 uprising, "which resisted violence, discrimination and injustice, and rejected a hegemonic international order."
"We will never again experience that pain from one hundred years ago," Moon said. "We will safeguard the survival and raise the pride of all Koreans through peace and prosper in peace."
Moon also called for Japan to look squarely at history and show a humble attitude over its wartime past in order for the two countries to overcome historical feuds and move forward for cooperation.
"In this time of many difficulties, Korea and Japan -- close neighbors -- must be able to overcome the history of the once unfortunate past and cooperate for the future," Moon said.
"Beyond Korea-Japan relations, I sincerely hope that Japan will take leadership as an advanced nation. To this end, Japan must squarely face history and be humble before it," Moon said.
South Korea remains open to dialogue with Japan to work together on various regional and global issues, such as COVID-19 and supply chains, Moon said.
Moon said Seoul "will always keep the door open for dialogue to join forces not only for regional peace and prosperity but also in responding to global challenges -- ranging from COVID-19 and the climate crisis to the supply chain crisis and the new economic order."
With North Korea showing signs of ratcheting up tensions by test-firing ballistic missiles, Moon said dialogue with the North must be resumed to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula.
Recalling heightened tension about five years ago, when North Korea conducted a nuclear test, Moon said his administration "was able to achieve peace through dramatic dialogue. However, dialogue has been suspended, making our peace tenuous."
"Efforts for dialogue to sustain peace must continue," Moon said. "If we do not lose our determination -- just as we dreamed of turning the PyeongChang Winter Olympics into a Peace Olympics amid the dark clouds of war -- we can certainly bring denuclearization and permanent peace to the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and diplomacy," Moon said.

"Cooperation between Korea and Japan is the responsibility of the current generation for the sake of future generations," Moon said.
"Japan will become a trustworthy country only when it is able to empathize with the wounds of the people of neighboring countries, which are sometimes exacerbated by a once unfortunate past," Moon said.
Diplomatic tensions between Seoul and Tokyo have run deep since 2019, when Japan imposed a set of export restrictions against South Korea in a move seen as economic retaliation for South Korean court rulings against Japanese firms involved in forced labor during Japan's colonial rule.
Japan's recent heritage bid for a controversial mine added to a litany of thorny issues between the two countries, including Japan's claims to Korea's easternmost islets of Dokdo, its wartime sexual slavery and its planned discharge of tainted nuclear plant water into the ocean.
The latest tussle over the Sado mine -- where as many as 2,000 Koreans were thought to have been mobilized to work against their will -- struck a particularly jarring note as it put a damper on Seoul's hitherto unfruitful fence-mending efforts with Tokyo.
kdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · March 1, 2022


6. N.K. leader urges 'devoted march for people'

But he will make them stand in formation in freezing temperatures with no hats and gloves to prepare to conduct a parade for Kim Jong-un's father.

N.K. leader urges 'devoted march for people' | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · March 1, 2022
SEOUL, March 1 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has urged "a devoted forced march for the people" and their ideological education in his speech concluding a three-day conference of the ruling Workers' Party, state media said Tuesday.
Kim made the appeal Monday during an address for the closure of the 2nd Conference of Secretaries of Primary Committees of the Workers' Party of Korea held in Pyongyang, the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.
The conference, the first since late 2016, opened Saturday, as the North tries to tighten discipline and unity among party ranks amid economic woes aggravated by international sanctions and pandemic-driven restrictions.
The conference reviewed the past five years of work of the primary party organizations.
"From now on they should make a devoted forced march for the people in order to preserve the dignity and prestige of our party," the KCNA quoted Kim as saying at the closing ceremony.
Kim urged them "to be very humble before the people, regard it as their natural gift and the most worthwhile work to go through thick and thin and devotedly work to ensure the best convenience and life of the people," saying to do so constitutes the main attitude and traits required by the party.
"The party devotedly serving the people is the single reason of our party's existence, its supreme symbol and permanent nature," Kim said, adding the secretaries of the primary party committees should become the "true political workers" of the party.
The leader also urged the secretaries to "transform the ideological consciousness of people" and "turn into a reality our party's policies of promoting the people's well-being."
"Stagnation and retreat in the economic affairs can be recovered but the stagnation and retreat in the education of people would bring irrevocable consequences," Kim said, stressing the need for the work to enhance "the political and moral consciousness of people."
The leader also personally handed out certificates of citation to about 50 accomplished secretaries of primary committees during the meeting's closing ceremony.


pbr@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · March 1, 2022




7. North Korea says it tested cameras for spy satellite

For the missile experts out there: Do we ever put cameras on ballistic missiles? Is it feasible? I know we have cameras mounted on U2s and SR-21s that fly extremely fast. But would we ever put a camera on a ballistice missile?

North Korea says it tested cameras for spy satellite
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · February 28, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea said Monday it tested cameras to be installed on a spy satellite, a suggestion that it’ll likely soon conduct a banned long-range rocket launch to modernize its weapons arsenal and apply more pressure on the Biden administration.
The United Nations and others view a satellite launch by North Korea as a cover for tests of missile technology, as ballistic missiles and rockets in satellite lift-offs share similar bodies, engines and other technology. Concerns about a North Korean satellite launch flared after it recently threatened to lift a four-year moratorium on big weapons tests to cope with what it called U.S. hostility.
The official Korean Central News Agency said Sunday’s test involved cameras for a reconnaissance satellite conducting vertical and oblique photography of a specific area of Earth. It said the test “is of great significance in developing the reconnaissance satellite” and released photos of the Korean Peninsula that appeared to be taken from space.
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North Korea didn’t directly acknowledge any missile launch, but the KCNA statement suggests North Korea fired a rocket or a missile to take space-based photos. U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials said Sunday they detected a new ballistic missile launch by North Korea, the eighth of its kind this year.
Lee Choon Geun, an honorary research fellow at South Korea’s Science and Technology Policy Institute, said the photos were likely taken when the missile was soaring or reached its apogee. But Lee said he couldn’t verify the quality of the North Korean cameras because it didn’t release higher-resolution satellite images.
After repeated failures, North Korea successfully put its first satellite into orbit in 2012 and second one in 2016. North Korea says both are Earth observation satellites launched under its peaceful space development program.
Lee said North Korea developed both satellites to spy on its rivals. He said the second satellite is said to be still in obit but there is no evidence that it has relayed any imagery back to North Korea.
Experts say the North’s past satellite launches have still improved its missile programs. In 2017, North Korea performed three intercontinental ballistic missile tests that demonstrated its potential ability to attack the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons.
A spy satellite is among an array of sophisticated weapons systems that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed last year to develop under five-year military build-up plans. It remains unclear whether North Korea has developed or secured sufficient levels of cameras to be put on a satellite and enable it to monitor South Korean and U.S. military activities.
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Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea said that North Korea is expected to launch a rocket carrying a spy satellite ahead of a major political anniversary in April, the birthday of state founder Kim Il Sung, the late grandfather of Kim Jong Un.
He suggested that Washington’s strained ties with Moscow and Beijing — both veto-wielding powers at the U.N. Security Council — would make it difficult for the U.N. to slap additional sanctions on North Korea over the satellite launch. He said tensions would still deepen as the United States would strengthen military drills with South Korea, which North Korea views as an invasion rehearsal, in response.
In January, North Korea test-launched a variety of missiles including one capable of reaching the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam and hinted at restarting suspended long-range and nuclear tests. The North Korean moves were seen as a bid to prefect its weapons technology while pressuring the Biden administration to offer concessions like sanctions relief and increasing its leverage in future negotiations with Washington.
Some experts say North Korea may also view the U.S. preoccupation with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a chance to accelerate testing activity without receiving any serious response from Washington.
According to the Japanese assessment, the North Korean missile fired Sunday few about 300 kilometers (190 miles) at a maximum altitude of about 600 kilometers (370 miles) before landing off North Korea’s eastern coast.
Lee said the North needs a much more powerful rocket to put a functioning spy satellite into orbit.
After Sunday’s launch, Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, held calls with senior South Korean and Japanese diplomats. He underscored the U.S. readiness to engage in serious diplomacy with North Korea while reaffirming “ironclad U.S. commitment to the defense of” South Korea and Japan, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said.
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · February 28, 2022

8. N. Korea blames U.S. 'hegemonic policy' for Ukraine crisis

The regime's propaganda is consistent.

N. Korea blames U.S. 'hegemonic policy' for Ukraine crisis | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · February 28, 2022
SEOUL, Feb. 28 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's foreign ministry on Monday blamed the United States' "hegemonic policy" as the cause of the Ukrainian crisis, as the European country fights against Russia's invasion.
"The root cause of the Ukraine crisis totally lies in the hegemonic policy of the U.S. and the West, which indulge themselves in high-handedness and arbitrariness toward other countries," the North's Korean Central News Agency quoted an unnamed ministry spokesperson as saying.
The spokesperson added the U.S. and the West have "systematically undermined the security environment of Europe by becoming more blatant in their attempts to deploy attack weapon systems while defiantly pursuing NATO's eastward expansion."
(END)

Keywords
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · February 28, 2022

9. N. Korea slams U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy as anti-China 'document of confrontation'

north Korean propaganda support to China.

N. Korea slams U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy as anti-China 'document of confrontation' | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · February 28, 2022
SEOUL, Feb. 28 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has lambasted the United States for its recently unveiled Indo-Pacific strategy, calling it a "document of confrontation" to isolate China, its foreign ministry said Monday.
Earlier this month, the White House released a document on its strategy on the region, highlighting a focus on marshaling "collective capacity" from a network of regional allies and partners amid an intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry.
In a post on its foreign ministry's website, the North criticized the report, saying that it is the U.S.' "intention to refurbish its long-term plan to isolate China in the Asia-Pacific region."
"The report on the 'U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy' issued this time is a document of confrontation which is run, from A to Z, with containment of China," it said.
"The U.S. act of deliberately aggravating tension by targeting a specific country will face ever-increasing condemnation, opposition and denouncement from the international society as it is the root cause of creating constant instability in the region," it added.
Pyongyang's criticism came as the leaders of the two sides have highlighted their close ties.
Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a letter to the North's leader Kim Jong-un to express gratitude for his messages about the Beijing Winter Olympics, according to the North's state media.
Xi also said that China is ready to work with the North to "steadily develop" bilateral relations of "friendship and cooperation."

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · February 28, 2022



10. Experts paint dark outlook for inter-Korean relations this year

The outlook is dark because of Kim Jong-un's decision.

Experts paint dark outlook for inter-Korean relations this year | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · February 28, 2022
SEOUL, Feb. 28 (Yonhap) -- A turnaround in inter-Korean ties this year may not be easy, even with the launch of South Korea's next government in May, experts said Monday, amid renewed tensions over a North Korean missile launch this week.
Experts painted a cloudy outlook for cross-border relations during their discussions published in the Korea Development Institute (KDI)'s February review of the North Korean economy.
"If you look at the patterns of North Korea's behavior when a new government was launched in Seoul, it does not engage with the Seoul government for the first one to two years in its terms while trying to tame it," Yun Duk-min, a chair professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said.
He also said that the North could opt to whip up a sense of crisis on the Korean Peninsula while dealing with the United States.
Cheon Seong-whun, an adjunct professor at Kookmin University, voiced concerns about the North's potential adherence to its nuclear ambitions, stressing the need for Seoul's next administration to focus on "managing" the North's nuclear quandary.
"It's clear that at least giving up nukes is not a choice (for North Korea)," he said. "It is desirable that the next government in Seoul should not make a promise for the complete resolution of the North's nuclear problem within its term."
Leading presidential candidates have offered divergent views on ways to deal with the North, with Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party calling for creating the conditions conducive to peace and Yoon Suk-yeol of the main opposition People Power Party advocating for a "peace through strength" approach.
North Korea has raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula since the start of the year, carrying out eight rounds of missile tests.
On Monday, Pyongyang claimed to have conducted a test to develop a "reconnaissance satellite" the previous day, although Seoul has characterized it as a ballistic missile launch.

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · February 28, 2022


11. Yoon says N. Korea's lifting of moratorium 'matter of time'

Perhaps. The propaganda surrounding the February 27 missile launch seems to indicate the regime is taking steps toward an ICBM test.

Yoon says N. Korea's lifting of moratorium 'matter of time' | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · February 28, 2022
SEOUL, Feb. 28 (Yonhap) -- Main opposition presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol said Monday that North Korea's lifting of its moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests appears to be a "matter of time."
Yoon of the conservative People Power Party wrote the comment on Facebook shortly after North Korea announced its projectile launch on Sunday was part of its efforts to develop a "reconnaissance satellite."
"It appears that it is a matter of time before North Korea breaks its moratorium," he said. "Using a satellite launch as an excuse, the possibility is growing that (North Korea) will launch an intercontinental ballistic missile."
South Korea's military characterized the projectile as a ballistic missile. The launch was the North's eighth show of force this year and followed its threat last month to lift its voluntary moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests.
"Together with the people, I strongly denounce North Korea's provocation that was in flagrant violation of U.N. resolutions," Yoon said, referring to U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban the North from using ballistic missile technology.
Yoon renewed his pledge to achieve "peace through strength" based on strong deterrence and criticized the government and ruling party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung for failing to condemn the North's provocations.

hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · February 28, 2022


12. Ukraine crisis worries South Koreans who fear Kim Jong-un could pull same move as Russia’s Putin, as North resumes missile tests

Never say never but the north Korean and Ukrainian situations are quite different. For one the ROK military has more relative combat power than Ukraine has.

Ukraine crisis worries South Koreans who fear Kim Jong-un could pull same move as Russia’s Putin, as North resumes missile tests
  • Some worry Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will hinder the North’s denuclearisation, while others take heart from South Korea’s differing geopolitical context
  • Concerns come as Pyongyang restarts its missile tests – and politicians look to exploit the Ukraine crisis as a ratings booster ahead of presidential elections

Park Chan-kyong in Seoul
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Published: 6:00am, 1 Mar, 2022
By Park Chan-Kyong South China Morning Post5 min

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: KCNA via dpa
South Koreans are watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine with growing concern, amid fears of the economic fallout and North Korea’s future course of action, as presidential hopefuls seek to take advantage of the crisis ahead of next month’s election.
Although the conflict is happening on the other side of the globe, online chat rooms in South Korea have been abuzz with users debating the implications of a large despotic power posing an existential threat to a smaller neighbour.
“We have [in North Korea] one of the world’s most warlike countries in the world as our neighbour,” said Stephen Park, a 37-year-old office worker, who said the images of explosions and panicky people trying to flee coming out of Ukraine had made him “a little bit scared”.
“I know a war on the Korean peninsula is a remote possibility but I am afraid Kim Jong-un might imitate Putin and do something provocative down the road”, he said.
Park’s fears have been echoed online, especially after North Korea fired a rocket with ballistic missile capability on Sunday – its first launch since January following a pause while close ally China hosted the Winter Olympics. Pyongyang described Sunday’s launch as an “important” test for a reconnaissance satellite, but the US and others have accused Pyongyang of using its space programme as a cover to bolster ballistic-missile development.
“Usually, a crisis presents an opportunity for Kim,” Soo Kim, a policy analyst with the US-based Rand Corporation think tank who previously worked at the Central Intelligence Agency, told Bloomberg.
“He knows it will be difficult for the US to give full attention to the North Korea issue right now – and this is an advantage for him.”
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Ewha Womans University, said that the latest missile launch was to be expected as the North continued with its plan to modernise its weapons.
Pyongyang has not directly reacted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Park said it was hesitant to do so, as Moscow is second only to Beijing on its list of allies. He noted, however, that “an imperialistic action” such as an invasion went against the North’s anti-imperialist principles.
Online, South Koreans said Russia’s invasion would make the denuclearisation of North Korea all the more difficult as Pyongyang takes note of what is happening to Ukraine, which gave up its own nuclear arsenal following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Kim has shown no interest in the Biden administration’s call for him to return to nuclear disarmament talks, now stalled for about three years. So far the US has not budged to North Korea’s demands that it ease up on sanctions choking its economy.
Others took heart from what they described as the South’s different geopolitical context.
“I don’t think we could have such an invasion by the North or China or Russia,” said Choi Jong-gwon, a 65-year-old merchant. “South Korea is the world’s 10th largest economy and the world’s sixth most powerful military power. And we don’t share borders with either China or Russia.”
A 68-year-old former government employee, who gave only his surname Yoon, said the presence of 28,000 American troops in the South would also act as a deterrent, as the US would automatically be involved in any war on the Korean peninsula – unlike in Ukraine, where US President Joe Biden has said he will not send troops.
The conflict’s economic fallout was another issue being debated online, with some worrying that the conflict would further boost the already soaring price of oil – further agitating North Korea, which imports much of its crude.
In the run-up to South Korea’s presidential election on March 9, front-runners Yoon Suk-yeol of the main conservative opposition People Power Party and Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party – who are currently locked in a head-to-head race – have also sought to exploit the Ukraine crisis to boost their ratings.
On Sunday, Yoon accused President Moon Jae-in’s outgoing administration of “dragging its feet” in condemning Russia and not expressing enough willingness to participate in sanctions. Seoul has condemned the invasion and pledged to join international sanctions against Russia.
“The people are anxious about the government that focuses only on appeasing the North rather than bolstering alliance [with the United States and Japan]”, he said.
In a televised debate late on Friday focused on domestic politics, North Korea and security, Yoon lambasted Moon’s policy of pursuing reconciliation and engagement with Pyongyang, dismissing it as a “flattering and submissive” policy that he compared with the West’s attempted appeasement of Adolf Hitler before the outbreak of World War II.
“Sustainable peace can only be guaranteed by deterrence based on [military] power”, Yoon said. “What is happening in Ukraine shows that ink and paper alone cannot guarantee security and peace.”
Referring to Moon’s attempts to induce Pyongyang back to the negotiating by pursuing a formal end to the Korean war, Yoon said: “Such a declaration would only create another Ukraine at a time when the North refuses to abandon nuclear weapons.”
The Korean war ended in 1953 with a ceasefire, but no official peace treaty was ever signed.
Yoon’s rival Lee said South Korea should pursue a pragmatic diplomatic stance to maximise its national interests as it is caught between China, Russia and the US.
He compared Ukrainian comedian-turned-president Volodymyr Zelensky to prosecutor-turned-presidential candidate Yoon, highlighting both their inexperience in politics.
“A novice politician in Ukraine with six months’ experience angered Russia by vowing to join Nato, resulting in a war,” Lee said. “We must, of course, strongly condemn Russia’s invasion but this is a stark example that failed diplomacy brings about a war.”
Lee’s remarks, which appeared to blame the Ukrainian president for Russia’s invasion, sparked uproar and criticism both at home and abroad. He was later forced to issue an apology.
“If I caused misunderstandings among some Ukrainians and Koreans, differently from what I really meant to say, it was due to the shortage of my ability to express myself”, Lee wrote on Facebook on Saturday night, adding that he had condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine more loudly than any other candidate.
Park Chan-kyong is a South Korean journalist who has worked for the Agence France-Presse Seoul bureau for 35 years. He is now working for the South China Morning Post. He studied political science at Korea University and economics at the Yonsei University Graduate School.


13. N. Korea launches ballistic missile amid Ukraine invasion (OPED)


Conclusion:

North Korea’s adventurism that exploits the emergence of a new cold war is a long-odds bet, which is equivalent to digging its own grave. However distracted the U.S. may be by a war in Europe, the U.S. will not turn a blind eye to North Korea’s nuclear provocations that pose a threat to the mainland U.S. Left with hardly any choices, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is misjudging the possibility that it could find a way out, as a member of dictatorial regimes led by China and Russia. However, by so doing, Pyongyang is only posing itself as a pawn of the chess played by China and Russia. Contrary to its calculations, North Korea would be used as a scapegoat sacrificed first when China and Russia are forced into a corner.

​I would just add the US is not only concerned with nuclear threats to the homeland, but to our allies as well (extended deterrence).​

N. Korea launches ballistic missile amid Ukraine invasion
Posted February. 28, 2022 08:11,
Updated February. 28, 2022 08:11
N. Korea launches ballistic missile amid Ukraine invasion. February. 28, 2022 08:11. .
North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the East Sea from Sunan, Pyongyang, on Sunday, which flew about 300 kilometers at a maximum altitude of 620 kilometers. This is the eighth launch since the start of the year, four weeks after the previous launch on Jan. 30.

North Korea, which had refrained from making provocations during the Beijing Winter Olympics, has again conducted a missile test amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine and with only 10 days to go before the South Korean presidential election scheduled on March 9. South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae called a meeting of the National Security Council and called the missile test “deeply worrisome and regrettable.”

North Korea’s resumption of missile testing clearly shows its opportunistic attitude to take advantage of the looming threat of a new cold war between the United States and China-Russia. In January, when Russia was building a military force along the Ukrainian border, North Korea carried out seven missile tests, which were followed by a pause during the Beijing Winter Olympics.

With the Russian aggression against Ukraine that took place right after the Beijing Winter Olympics ended, North Korea resumed missile tests as if it had been waiting for the move by Russia. Earlier, the North Korean Foreign Affairs Ministry had released a statement that accused the United States of being the “root cause of the Ukrainian crisis” and for its “high-handedness and arbitrariness.”

In the midst of a presidential campaign and in advance of a change in administration in South Korea, provocations by North Korea are likely to be intensified in severity until April 15, the 110th anniversary of the birth of the nation’s founding father Kim Il Sung. North Korea attempts to take advantage of the situation where, after Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution, the UN Security Council has been effectively rendered powerless, by freely continuing day-to-day provocations and have them accepted as normal defense activities. On top of that, North Korea could cross the red line by firing ICBM or conducting nuclear weapons tests.

North Korea’s adventurism that exploits the emergence of a new cold war is a long-odds bet, which is equivalent to digging its own grave. However distracted the U.S. may be by a war in Europe, the U.S. will not turn a blind eye to North Korea’s nuclear provocations that pose a threat to the mainland U.S. Left with hardly any choices, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is misjudging the possibility that it could find a way out, as a member of dictatorial regimes led by China and Russia. However, by so doing, Pyongyang is only posing itself as a pawn of the chess played by China and Russia. Contrary to its calculations, North Korea would be used as a scapegoat sacrificed first when China and Russia are forced into a corner.


14. Moon says door remains open for dialogue with Japan

I hope so. This is one of the important 10 lines of effort in the new US INDOPACIFIC strategy.

Moon says door remains open for dialogue with Japan
The Korea Times · March 1, 2022
President Moon Jae-in speaks during a ceremony to commemorate the 103rd anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement at the National Memorial for the Provisional Korean Government in Seodaemun District, Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap

Calling Japan a close neighbor, president reveals hope for thaw in bilateral ties

By Nam Hyun-woo
President Moon Jae-in said Tuesday that the door remains open for dialogue with Japan.

He made the comments during a speech to commemorate the anniversary of an independence movement against Japan's forced occupation of Korea from 1910-1945, as bilateral relations remain at one of the lowest points since the two countries formed diplomatic ties in 1965.

"Cooperation between Korea and Japan is the responsibility of the current generation for the sake of future generations," Moon said at a ceremony marking the 103rd anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement.

The President made similar remarks last year and the year before as chilly relations between Seoul and Tokyo have continued, hampering economic and security cooperation between the neighboring countries to counter North Korea's missile threats.

"In this time of many difficulties, Korea and Japan ― close neighbors ― must be able to overcome the history of the once unfortunate past and cooperate for the future."

Moon added that he hopes Japan will take a lead role as an advanced country, but also, that the country "faces its history and is humble before it."

"Japan will become a trustworthy country only when it is able to empathize with the wounds of the people of neighboring countries, which are sometimes exacerbated by a once unfortunate past," Moon said. "My administration will always keep the door open for dialogue to join forces not only for regional peace and prosperity, but also for responding to global challenges ― ranging from COVID-19 and the climate crisis, to the supply chain crisis and the new economic order."

Relations between Seoul and Tokyo sank to a new low in recent years after Japan restricted exports of key industrial materials to South Korea in apparent retaliation against a 2018 Korean Supreme Court ruling that awarded compensation to laborers forced to work for a Japanese company during World War II.

Although the export restrictions themselves did not pose serious damage to the South Korean economy, the icy relations have been impeding security cooperation between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington to counter North Korea's increasing missile threats and nuclear programs.

Against this backdrop, Moon has been using a strategy of handling historical issues and practical cooperation separately. As his presidency nears its end, the words of Moon's March 1 Independence Movement Day speech this year appear to show a continuation of this strategy without major changes in policy direction.

President Moon Jae-in speaks during a ceremony to commemorate the 103rd anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement at the National Memorial for the Provisional Korean Government in Seodaemun District, Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap

Moon also reiterated the necessity of Seoul's commitment to inter-Korean peace.

"Peace on the Korean Peninsula is a must for us to become stronger," Moon said, adding that there was no South or North Korea during the time of the March 1 Independence Movement. "The Korean War and the history of division we have suffered since then have taught us that only dialogue ― not confrontation and hostility ― can bring peace."

"If we do not lose our determination ― just as we dreamed of turning the PyeongChang Winter Olympics into a Peace Olympics amid the dark clouds of war ― it is certainly possible to bring denuclearization and permanent peace to the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and diplomacy."

During the speech, Moon also noted the importance of national strength, in an apparent reference to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"State-centered nationalism, which seeks to gain hegemony by force, is also raising its head again. Concerns over a new Cold War are on the rise as well," Moon said. The lesson that the spirit of the March 1 Independence Movement gives us today is that we should have the power to lead our history without being pushed around by an international order centered on powerful countries."

The ceremony was held at the newly established National Memorial for the Provisional Korean Government in Seodaemun District, Seoul. In 2017, Moon had promised to build this national memorial and visited the building of the Provisional Republic of Korea Government in Chongqing.

"The March 1 Independence Movement and the Provisional Republic of Korea Government are a great legacy passed on to us by our forebears," Moon said. "Remembering and honoring the history of our democratic republic will make our democratic republic of today stronger," he said.

President Moon Jae-in and his wife Kim Jung-sook, on his left, raise Korea's national flags as they demonstrate the "manse" (cheer) action repeated across the peninsula in the 1919 March 1 Independence Movement during a ceremony to commemorate the 103rd anniversary of the event at the National Memorial for the Provisional Korean Government in Seodaemun District, Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap
The Korea Times · March 1, 2022


15. North Korea still claims zero cases of COVID-19

north Korean information control and propaganda at its finest.

North Korea still claims zero cases of COVID-19
The Korea Times · March 1, 2022
North Korean citizens visit the statues of their late leaders Kim Il-sung, left, and Kim Jong-il on Mansu Hill in Pyongyang, North Korea on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the birth of Kim Jong-il, Feb. 16. AP-Yonhap 

North Korea has reported to the World Health Organization that the country has seen no cases of COVID-19 after more than 56,000 of its people have been tested so far, WHO data showed Tuesday.

The North has claimed it has remained coronavirus-free since the pandemic began two years ago.

According to the latest WHO statistics, 56,227 North Koreans have been tested for COVID-19 so far, but none of them were found to be infected.

Of the about 1,300 people tested between Jan. 11 and 17, 110 showed symptoms similar to those of flu or acute respiratory infections, the North reported.

Since the pandemic began, the North has kept its borders closed to fend off the coronavirus. It has also refused to accept vaccines allocated to the country through the COVAX Facility, a global vaccine distribution platform. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · March 1, 2022


16. Russians in Korea unite against Putin's war on Ukraine


Russians in Korea unite against Putin's war on Ukraine
The Korea Times · by 2022-03-01 20:28 | Politics · March 1, 2022
Russian residents stage a rally in front of Bosingak Pavilion in Jongno District, Seoul, Sunday, protesting Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Yonhap

Protests held in Korea lambasting Russian leader
By Lee Hyo-jin
Anti-government protests in Russia are rare, as the authoritarian regime does not tolerate expression of dissent against the Kremlin. However, President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has immediately provoked strong backlash among Russian citizens.

Mass demonstrations erupted across Russia over the weekend, where people protested against what the Russian government called a "special military operation" aimed at the "denazification and demilitarization" of its neighboring country.

Joining their brave actions were Russian residents in Korea, who staged an anti-war rally in front of Bosingak Pavilion in Seoul, Sunday.

Only 20 people were scheduled to take part in the event, but to the surprise of the rally's organizers, over 100 Russians gathered, holding placards reading, "We say no to the war," "Stand with Ukraine" and "Stop Russian Aggressor Adolf Putin ― Hands off Ukraine."

"This is the first demonstration I've ever participated in in my life. I couldn't just sit and do nothing while innocent people are dying because of my country," said a Russian student living in Seoul.

A participant of an anti-war rally organized by Russian residents holds a placard reading, "I am a Russian and I oppose the war." Yonhap

She spoke on condition of anonymity as Russian citizens were warned by their government recently that "negative comments" about Putin's invasion of Ukraine would be treated as "treason."

"It is unacceptable to launch an attack on another sovereign state and use nuclear threats in the 21st century. I'm ashamed of my country and I can't help but feel responsible for the actions of our government. But at the same time, we are the victims of Putin's war, too," she said, explaining that a wide range of sanctions imposed by Western countries are already affecting daily life for Russian citizens.

Less than a week after Russian forces launched the invasion, the country has been slapped with a flurry of economic and diplomatic sanctions, prompting the ruble to nosedive to a record low.

"Yesterday, my grandmother stood in the line at a cash machine for several hours to withdraw money, but she couldn't. Moscow residents were told they might not be able to use bank-issued cards to pay public transport fares because of sanctions on banks. It's chaos," the student said.

"I'm worried that things will only get worse by the time I have to go back to Russia after I finish my study here in a few months. But I wonder if it's even worth it to return at all if Putin is still in power," she added.

Another Russian resident who joined Sunday's rally, who also requested anonymity, said, "We decided to take action, as it is important to let people know that we are also the victims of Putin's war. Nobody wanted this. Putin does not represent us."

She added, "It is our responsibility to tell people the truth about this military aggression. State media in Russia is just propaganda, they filter the truth about the war. They even refuse to call it a 'war.' Independent media are strictly banned from using other sources than the government when reporting about the 'special military operation.'"

She said the Russian community in Korea plans to hold rallies every weekend in March, and potentially even longer depending on how the situation develops.

A Russian resident in Korea participates in a rally in front of Bosingak Pavilion in Jongno District, Seoul, Sunday, protesting Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
 Yonhap

Ilya Belyakov, a naturalized Korean citizen from Russia and a TV personality, also stood up against the Putin regime.

Ilya Belyakov, a naturalized Korean citizen from Russia and a TV personality / Korea Times file

"To put it bluntly, asking me why I don't support Putin is like asking why I don't support Hitler," he said during a phone interview with The Korea Times. "War cannot be justified by any reason. I support the Ukrainian people who are the victims of the military aggression."

Belyakov added that Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine is reckless.
"It was a crazy thing to do for Putin, who is a cunning and calculated, yet reasonable person," Belyakov said.

When asked what could be next for Putin and Russia, he said, "I think it depends on what Putin is seeking to achieve through this. It could be anything; whether it is 'denazification' in Ukraine as he officially announced, or to kill President Zelenskyy, or to start a war with Western countries. Nobody knows what's going on inside his head."

He added, "But one thing remains clear at this moment: The war should stop to prevent needless deaths and suffering."


The Korea Times · by 2022-03-01 20:28 | Politics · March 1, 2022



17. Case for South Korean sanctions on Russia

Case for South Korean sanctions on Russia
The Korea Times · March 1, 2022
By Troy Stangarone
If there was ever any illusion that Russia didn't intend to invade Ukraine, that is gone now. Russian troops have entered into Ukraine with the clear intent to remove its democratically elected government. While Ukraine may seem a world away from the Korean Peninsula, what happens on the plains of Eastern Europe will reverberate all of the way to Korea.

Since the end of World War II, the world has worked to put in place institutions such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization in order to maintain the peace, allow for negotiated solutions to disputes, and for commerce to remain uninterrupted. Russia's actions in Ukraine will strain those institutions and norms, if not break them in a way that reshapes how states interact with each other ― and not for the better.

For this reason alone South Korea's signal that it will support sanctions in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is important. It is in the interest of members of the international community to defend international law and their own innate interest not to allow norms of military force or economic coercion outside of international rules to take hold as a means for settling disputes.

However, as with the United States and its allies in Europe, the deeper reality is that once this crisis ends Russia will still remain a nuclear-armed state that nations must deal with, even if Moscow faces years of isolation. In this context, sanctions are a balance between ensuring that Russia pays a price for its use of military force to deter other states that would do so, but also in not eliminating the prospect for any cooperation with Russia. Nevertheless, part of that calculation also relates to the factors that drove Russia's actions ― its claim of threats to its security.

In this area, much of the focus has been on Russia's argument that Ukraine's potential membership of NATO was unacceptable. Throughout the crisis Putin has continued to emphasize his grievances with NATO's expansion towards Russia's border and what he perceives to be a threat from Ukraine's mere existence if it is not in Russia's orbit. At times, Putin has gone so far as to suggest that Ukraine is a fictional state that only has the right to exist as part of Russia.

In his speech to the Russian people, Putin again emphasized that he believed "it is only a matter of time" before Ukraine would join NATO. He also tried to justify his actions as working to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction. He remarked that "If Ukraine acquires weapons of mass destruction, the situation in the world and in Europe will drastically change, especially for us, for Russia." He went on to state that "We cannot but react to this real danger, all the more so since, let me repeat, Ukraine's Western patrons may help it acquire these weapons to create yet another threat to our country."

Of course, Putin failed to note that the former Communist bloc states that have joined NATO did so to ensure that Russia would never again occupy them, something that remains a concern due to Russia's invasions of Georgia and Ukraine, now twice, since the end of the Cold War. Putin also failed to mention that, unlike North Korea, Ukraine had no intention of developing weapons of mass destruction, but gave them up under assurances by Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom that its territorial sovereignty would be protected.

Sanctions are important for reinforcing the norms of the U.N. Charter that borders are not changed through force, but for also reinforcing that states should be able to choose their own foreign policy.

South Korea has announced that it will join the ban on some Russian banks in the SWIFT banking system and export controls on strategic materials, but similar to many European countries, economic interests will play a factor in sanctions development and energy sanctions are unlikely.

One key component of any package would be export controls on hi-technology products. South Korea's decision to enforce U.S. and EU export controls is key to limiting Moscow's access to high-tech products but it could include autonomous controls on these materials. Seoul should also consider autonomous sanctions on Russia in other areas. These could also include financial sanctions, prohibition on imports such as vodka or similar items to many European countries as well as a refusal to engage in sporting events with Russia. Even small sanctions help to send a signal to Moscow that it needs to reverse course or face greater isolation.

Sanctions on Russia are also likely to have little effect on talks with North Korea. Pyongyang will take note of how little security assurances mattered for defending Ukraine and cling tighter to its nuclear weapons, though it may not say this as Russia remains a conduit for North Korean sanctions evasion. With Russia likely to be isolated diplomatically in the short to medium term, there is no positive role that Putin could play on the Korean Peninsula.

Ultimately, if Russia is able to remove the government of a sovereign nation with little consequence, the world will move closer to a new order that might allow powerful states to do as they wish and international law and norms become increasingly irrelevant. That is an outcome that is in the interest of only Russia and perhaps a few other countries. In the short term, sanctions on Russia will have an impact on South Korean firms, but deeper issues are at play.


Troy Stangarone (ts@keia.org) is the senior director of congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute.



The Korea Times · March 1, 2022





V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
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FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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