1. For Trump the Dealmaker, Troop Pullouts Without Much in Return
2. South Korea's Moon ups defence spending, urges North to talk
3. Despite Vow to End 'Endless Wars,' Here's Where About 200,000 Troops Remain
4. Marines Unable to Conduct Firing Drills on Islands Near N.Korea
5. 6 Russian military aircraft intrude into S. Korea's air defense zone
6. International sanctions hit North Korea's coal and fishing industries hard
7. North Korea's coal smuggling continues full speed ahead
8. Seoul City Mulls Making Public Spaces Devoid of Rallies
9. S. Korea decides to give up developing country status in the WTO
10. Trump says 'lot of things going on' regarding North Korea
11. Trump predicts mysterious 'major rebuild' of North Korea
12. DMZ entry control issue up for high-level talks
13. Strange things happen in NK
14. South Korea's Moon Says Economy Faces 'Grave' Situation
15. North Korea Faces an (Under) Population Bomb
1. For Trump the Dealmaker, Troop Pullouts Without Much in Return
Frankly speaking, one of my biggest fears is the President negotiates a deal with north Korea that involves the withdrawal of US troops over the objections of his advisers who know the outcome of such a move would be catastrophic for not only South Korea but for US interests in the region. Fortunately we have a system of checks and balances and seeing as how Korea has been on of the most bipartisan issues Congress may step in to prevent a precipitous withdrawal.
For Trump the Dealmaker, Troop Pullouts Without Much in Return
The New York Times · by Peter Baker · October 21, 2019
The president has sought to scale back America's military presence around the world without waiting to negotiate concessions from foes like the Taliban or North Korea.
American military personnel flying over Afghanistan last month. Although peace talks fell apart, the Trump administration is drawing down troops there anyway.
CreditJim Huylebroek for The New York Times
WASHINGTON - The Taliban have wanted the United States to pull troops out of Afghanistan, Turkey has wanted the Americans out of northern Syria and North Korea has wanted them to at least stop military exercises with South Korea.
President Trump has now to some extent at least obliged all three - but without getting much of anything in return. The self-styled dealmaker has given up the leverage of the United States' military presence in multiple places around the world without negotiating concessions from those cheering for American forces to leave.
For a president who has repeatedly promised to end the "endless wars," the decisions reflect a broader conviction that bringing troops home - or at least moving them out of hot spots - is more important than haggling for advantage. In his view, decades of overseas military adventurism has only cost the country enormous blood and treasure, and waiting for deals would prolong a national disaster.
But veteran diplomats, foreign policy experts and key lawmakers fear that Mr. Trump is squandering American power and influence in the world with little to show for it. By pulling troops out unilaterally, they argue, Mr. Trump has emboldened America's enemies and distressed its allies. Friends like Israel, they note, worry about American staying power. Foes like North Korea and the Taliban learn that they can achieve their goals without having to pay a price.
"It's hard for me to divine any real strategic logic to the president's moves," said John P. Hannah, a senior counselor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former national security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney. "The only real connective tissue I see is the almost preternatural isolationist impulse that he invariably seems to revert to when left to his own devices internationally - even to the point that it overrides his supposed deal making instincts."
Reuben E. Brigety II, a former Navy officer and ambassador to the African Union under President Barack Obama who now serves as dean of the Elliott School for International Affairs at George Washington University, said just as worrisome as the decisions themselves was the seemingly capricious way they were made.
Mr. Trump, he said, often seems more interested in pleasing autocrats like Kim Jong-un of North Korea and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey than in organizing any kind of coherent policymaking process to consider the pros and cons.
"When he canceled the South Korea military exercises, the only person he consulted was Kim Jong-un," Mr. Brigety said. "The decision to abandon the Kurds came after a brief phone call with Erdogan. So they weren't taken because he had personally reflected on the strategic disposition of American forces around the world. They were taken after he took the counsel of strongmen over that of his own advisers."
All the complaints from the career national security establishment, however, carry little weight with Mr. Trump, who dismisses his critics as the same ones who got the country into a catastrophic war in Iraq. While that may not be true in all cases, Mr. Trump makes the case that 18 years after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, it is time to pull out even without extracting trade-offs in return.
"When I watch these pundits that always are trying to take a shot, I say - they say, 'What are we getting out of it?'" Mr. Trump told reporters on Monday as he hosted a cabinet meeting. "You know what we're getting out of it? We're bringing our soldiers back home. That's a big thing. And it's going to probably work. But if it doesn't work, you're going to have people fighting like they've been fighting for 300 years. It's very simple. It's really very simple."
The United States has about
200,000
troops stationed around the world, roughly half of them in relatively less dangerous posts in Europe or Asia where American forces have maintained a presence since the end of World War II. Tens of thousands of others are deployed in the Middle East, although only a fraction of them are in the active war zones of Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.
It took only a few dozen Special Forces operators near the border in northern Syria to deter Turkey from assaulting America's Kurdish allies there, but soon after Mr. Trump talked with Mr. Erdogan on Oct. 6, the president announced on a Sunday night that they would be pulled back. Turkey then launched a ferocious attack on the Kurds, and by the time a convoy of American troops moved away over the weekend, they were shown in a widely circulated video being pelted by angry Kurds throwing potatoes to express their sense of betrayal.
Mr. Trump did not ask Mr. Erdogan for anything in exchange. Instead, the diplomacy came only after the Turkish incursion began when he sent Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Ankara to
broker a cease-fire to give the Kurds time to evacuate a new safe zone to be controlled by Turkey along the Syrian border.
Mr. Erdogan essentially got what he wanted.
In Afghanistan, Mr. Trump's special envoy spent months negotiating a peace agreement with the Taliban militia that would provide guarantees that the country would not be used as a base for terrorist attacks against the United States if it reduced its troop presence to around 8,600.
The talks fell apart, but Mr. Trump is
drawing down American forces anyway, pulling out 2,000 troops in the last year, leaving 12,000 to 13,000. Plans are to keep shrinking the force to around 8,600 anyway.
In Asia, Mr. Trump voluntarily
canceled traditional large-scale joint military exercises with South Korea at the behest of Mr. Kim even though the two have yet to reach any kind of concrete agreement in which North Korea would give up its nuclear weapons. The decision frustrated not only allies like South Korea and Japan but senior American diplomats and military officers, who privately questioned why North Korea should be given one of its key demands without having to surrender anything itself.
"Trump is a win-lose negotiator," said Wendy R. Sherman, a former under secretary of state under Mr. Obama who helped broker the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran that Mr. Trump abandoned last year. "That's what he did as a real estate developer. He doesn't see the larger landscape, the interconnections, the larger costs, the loss of greater benefits."
But in addition to the collapse of the Afghan talks, he has gotten nowhere in nuclear negotiations with North Korea, made no progress in a long, drawn-out Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative, has yet to even reach the table with Iran despite his stated desire and remains locked in a high-stakes, big-dollar negotiation with China over tariffs.
For Mr. Trump, though, the desire to "
end the endless wars," as he puts it, may override his instinct for deal-making. He talks repeatedly about the misery of families whose loved ones have been killed in the Middle East or elsewhere, and he seems to put decisions about deployments in a different category than trade deals or other negotiations. Getting them out of harm's way is an end to itself.
"We're going to bring our soldiers back home," Mr. Trump said on Monday. "So far, there hasn't been one drop of blood shed during this whole period by an American soldier. Nobody was killed. Nobody cut their finger. There's been nothing. And they're leaving rather, I think, not expeditiously - rather intelligently."
Peter Baker is the chief White House correspondent and has covered the last four presidents for The Times and The Washington Post. He also is the author of five books, most recently "Impeachment: An American History."
A version of this article appears in print on of the New York edition with the headline: Making Deals, And Mistakes
The New York Times · by Peter Baker · October 21, 2019
2. South Korea's Moon ups defence spending, urges North to talk
We should keep in mind that in terms of defense spending South Korea spends a higher percentage of its GDP on defense (some 2.7%) than any NATO ally of the US.
But more importantly this is necessary because of the threat from the north. While the willingness to talk is good you cannot negotiate from a position of weakness. And north Korea is always trying to create the conditions where the US and the ROK negotiate from a position of weakness or a fear of possible north Korean action.
SEOUL: South Korea's President Moon Jae-in said Seoul would increase military spending and urged the North to return to dialogue in a budget speech on Tuesday (Oct 22) that could infuriate Pyongyang with nuclear talks gridlocked.
Contact between North and South Korea stalled after the collapse of a February summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump in Hanoi.
Since then Pyongyang has excoriated its neighbour over joint military drills with the US, and the acquisition of American fighter jets.
It is a far cry from the cross-border warmth of last year, when Moon seized on the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics to broker the North-South discussion process and held three summits himself with Kim.
South Korea's President Moon Jae-in (centre) has long championed engagement with Pyongyang. (Photo: AFP/Jung Yeon-je)
South Korea will increase defence spending by 7 per cent to more than 50 trillion won (US$42 billion) next year, Moon told parliament, emphasising that "strong defence" was crucial for "self-determination".
"We will strengthen the core defence system by boosting assets such as next-generation submarines and surveillance satellites."
The announcement came after North Korea this month tested what it said was a submarine-launched ballistic missile that marked a "new phase" in its capabilities - the most provocative in a series of weapons tests it resumed after an 18-month hiatus.
North Korea is under multiple sets of UN sanctions over its nuclear and missile programmes.
Pyongyang and Washington restarted working-level talks in Sweden this month only for them to quickly break down, with the North blaming the US for not giving up its "old attitude" and setting the end of this year as deadline for Washington to change its stance.
It has also said it has nothing more to talk about with Seoul, and condemned joint South Korea-US drills and the deployment of F-35A fighter jets in the South as rehearsals for invasion and violations of Seoul-Pyongyang agreements.
But Moon - who has long championed engagement with Pyongyang - held out hope for a breakthrough despite the setbacks, claiming that the deadlocked talks were the "last hurdle" before denuclearisation.
A "bright future" for the North would only be possible on the basis of a "peace economy" driven by inter-Korean economic projects, he said. "I urge the North to respond."
channelnewsasia.com
3. Despite Vow to End 'Endless Wars,' Here's Where About 200,000 Troops Remain
Under President Trump, there are now more troops in the Middle East than when he took office, and he has continued the mission for tens of thousands of others far from the wars of 9/11.
American military personnel in Logar Province, Afghanistan, in 2018.
CreditOmar Sobhani/Reuters
President Trump has repeatedly promised to end what he calls America's "endless wars," fulfilling a promise he made during the campaign.
No wars have ended, though, and more troops have deployed to the Middle East in recent months than have come home. Mr. Trump is not so much ending wars, as he is moving troops from one conflict to another.
Tens of thousands of American troops remain deployed all over the world, some in war zones such as Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq and - even still - Syria. And the United States maintains even more troops overseas in large legacy missions far from the wars following the Sept. 11 attacks, in such allied lands as Germany, South Korea and Japan.
Although deployment numbers fluctuate daily, based on the needs of commanders, shifting missions and the military's ability to shift large numbers of personnel by transport planes and warships, a rough estimate is that 200,000 troops are deployed overseas today.
Afghanistan: 12,000 to 13,000 troops
At the height of the war, in 2010 and 2011, there were more than 100,000 troops in Afghanistan. When Mr. Trump took office, that number was hovering around 10,000. A new strategy, announced in August 2017, added thousands more.
Mr. Trump has long bemoaned the length of the 18-year conflict, with Pentagon officials worried that, at a moment's notice, one tweet could end the mission.
The current commander, Gen. Austin S. Miller, has slowly
dropped troop numbers to between 12,000 and 13,000 over the past year.
American and Afghan officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss details of the plan, said the eventual American force size could drop to 8,600 - roughly the initial reduction envisioned in a draft agreement with the Taliban before
Mr. Trump halted peace talks last month. Rather than a formal withdrawal order, they are reducing the force through a gradual process of not replacing troops as they cycle out.
Syria: About 200
What started as 50 Special Operations soldiers in late 2015 ballooned to more than 2,000 in 2017 when American troops and Kurdish and Arabic local fighters, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces, were battling the Islamic State in Raqqa, its de facto capital.
In December 2018, before the Islamic State's self-proclaimed caliphate collapsed, Mr. Trump issued his first of several orders to pull all American troops from the country. In turn, the Pentagon tried to shore up a plan to withdraw roughly 1,000 troops while keeping the rest spread out across the country's northeastern corner.
In recent weeks, Mr. Trump ordered those remaining troops out, leaving a small detachment of around 200 in southern Syria - at a small outpost on the Jordanian border. Mr. Trump is also said to be
in favor of leaving about 200 Special Operation forces in eastern Syria to help combat Islamic State guerrilla fighters and to block Syrian government forces and their Russian advisers from seizing several coveted oil fields in the east.
The other troops who left northern Syria in the past several days did not return to the United States, as Mr. Trump said they would. They are now based in western Iraq.
Iraq: About 6,000
The war that began as Operation Iraqi Freedom and lasted from 2003 to 2011 peaked at about 150,000 troops. Only a small detachment remained when American troops left altogether in 2011. In 2014, the Islamic State poured over the Syria-Iraq border and routed the Iraqi Army from Mosul, once the country's second-largest city, and pressed south to the outskirts of Baghdad, the capital, before being repelled.
With ISIS fighters closing on Erbil, President Barack Obama started his campaign against the terrorist group, which would come to be known as Operation Inherent Resolve. The small contingent of ground troops, helping hunt terrorist targets and advise the morale-stricken Iraqi Army, grew to around 5,000 in 2016.
That number has only increased, to roughly 6,000, as American troops move from northern Syria to western Iraq.
Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf nations: 45,000 to 65,000
In response to Iranian attacks and provocations since May, the Pentagon has deployed about 14,000 additional troops to the Persian Gulf region, including roughly 3,500 to Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. Those forces include airborne early warning aircraft, maritime patrol planes, Patriot air and missile defense batteries, B-52 bombers, a carrier strike group, armed Reaper drones and other engineering and support personnel.
But, at any given time, between 45,000 and 65,000 American troops are in the region, spread out between Jordan and Oman, assigned to operate airfields, run key headquarters, sail warships and fly warplanes, and stage for deployments to places such as Iraq and Afghanistan. The numbers change substantially depending on the presence of an aircraft carrier strike group or two in the region, and whether a large group of Marines is afloat in those waters.
Africa: 6,000 to 7,000
There are between 6,000 and 7,000 American troops spread across Africa, with the largest numbers concentrated in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. In Somalia, there are about 500 Special Operations troops, fighting the Qaeda-linked terrorist group, the Shabab, from small outposts alongside local troops.
In the Sahel, in countries like Niger, Chad and Mali, there are several hundred. The Air Force recently built a large drone base, known as Air Base 201, near the city of Agadez, Niger. Last year, Jim Mattis, the defense secretary at the time, ordered the military command that oversees troops on the continent, known as Africom, to shrink its forces by several hundred Special Operations troops as part of the Pentagon's strategy to focus more on threats from Russian and China around the world.
The current commander of Africom, Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, is completing a sweeping review that will probably mean the reduction of more troops.
Japan and South Korea: About 78,000
Since the end of World War II and the Korean War, the United States has maintained a large military presence in Asia. More than 28,000 United States troops are stationed in South Korea, many living with their families. The United States and South Korea have
suspended major training exercises over the past year as a concession to North Korea, but the two militaries continue to carry out smaller drills.
In Japan, the Pentagon maintains about 50,000 troops at roughly two dozen bases across the country. About 25,000 of those troops are stationed on Okinawa. Violence committed by American service members or related personnel on the island has long caused friction between Washington and Tokyo.
NATO nations: More than 35,000
The Cold War put as many as 300,000 American troops across Europe to defend against the Soviet Union. That presence eventually plummeted to about 30,000 soldiers after the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe.
Over the past year, the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization completed positioning about 4,500 additional soldiers in the three Baltic States and Poland, and they have stationed several thousand other armored troops mostly in Eastern Europe as a deterrent to Russian aggression.
Despite recent tensions with Turkey over its offensive into northern Syria, the United States flies combat and support aircraft from Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. The Pentagon also stores about 50 tactical nuclear weapons at Incirlik.
Elsewhere: More than 2,000
The Pentagon has deployed troops to other locations around the world. There are about 250 troops, mostly Special Forces, in the Philippines in part to help with counterterrorism operations. In the past six years, about 2,000 Marines have regularly deployed to northern Australia to act as a response force for the Pacific region.
Thomas Gibbons-Neff is a reporter in the Washington bureau and a former Marine infantryman.
@tmgneff
Eric Schmitt is a senior writer who has traveled the world covering terrorism and national security. He was also the Pentagon correspondent. A member of the Times staff since 1983, he has shared three Pulitzer Prizes.
@EricSchmittNYT
The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · October 21, 2019
4. Marines Unable to Conduct Firing Drills on Islands Near N.Korea
Another indication of the one sided nature of the September 19th Pyongyang Declaration with the Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA).
Marines have been unable to conduct tank firing drills on Baeknyeong and Yeonpyeong islands off the North Korean coast since an inter-Korean military agreement in September 2018.
Instead, they have had to practice all the way south in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province since June, where the territory and conditions are significantly different.
 Battle tanks conduct a firing drill in an unknown location in this undated file photo.
A Marine officer told the National Assembly's Defense Committee last week that some 20 tanks deployed on the islands have not conducted live firing drills since last year.
"We can't conduct the drills because firing into the sea has been banned" since the agreement, the officer said, "and we couldn't set up a new firing range inland on Baeknyeong Island."
Instead the Marines decided to sail halfway around the Korean Peninsula, carrying their tanks on a ship. According to the officer, the Marines will continue their firing drills in this way twice a year until they find an alternative.
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
english.chosun.com
5. 6 Russian military aircraft intrude into S. Korea's air defense zone
Excerpts:
In order to prevent such cases, South Korea and Russia have been pushing to set up a military hotline between their air forces to exchange their flight information, according to the JCS.
The two sides began discussing the matter in 2004 and wrapped up consultations on the draft of the envisioned MOU in November last year, it added.
The air defense zone was first drawn in 1951 by the U.S. Air Force during the 1950-53 Korean War to prevent air clashes between nations surrounding the Korean Peninsula. Last year, Seoul expanded it to counter China's unilateral decision to expand its own to cover a reef and other islands off the southern coast.
The air zone is not part of a country's air space and not bound by international law.
(4th LD) 6 Russian military aircraft intrude into S. Korea's air defense zone | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · October 22, 2019
(ATTN: ADDS Seoul's complaints in paras in 7-8)
By Oh Seok-min
SEOUL, Oct. 22 (Yonhap) -- Six Russian military aircraft violated South Korea's air defense identification zone on Tuesday, prompting the Air Force to scramble fighter jets to turn them back, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
An A-50 early-warning aircraft, three SU-27 fighter jets and two TU-95 bombers entered the Korean Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ) four times between 9:23 a.m. and 2:44 p.m. without prior notice and stayed in the zone for about four hours in total before leaving at around 3:13 p.m., according to the JCS.
The warplanes breached the KADIZ over waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula, including the country's easternmost islets of Dokdo and the island of Ulleung in the East Sea; above the southern city of Pohang and the island of Jeju and areas in the Yellow Sea.
But none of the aircraft violated South Korea's territorial airspace, the JCS said.
Upon detecting the first plane entering KADIZ over Ulleung Island, the South Korean Air Force deployed some 10 fighters, including F-15K and KF-16 jets, which "had taken due measures" of tracking the aircraft and sending warning messages to force them out, according to the JCS.
The latest violation brought the total number of entries by Russian aircraft into KADIZ so far this year to 20.
Following the incident, the defense ministry lodged a strong complaint with Russia, and urged Russia to come up with measures to prevent recurrences, according to ministry officials.
The issue is also expected to be high on the agenda during a meeting of their joint military committee set to take place on Wednesday and Thursday in Seoul, they added.
On July 23, a Russian A-50 aircraft intruded into South Korea's territorial airspace over Dokdo twice, leading the Air Force to fire hundreds of warning shots.
The intrusion came shortly after two other Russian aircraft and two Chinese military aircraft breached the KADIZ between Dokdo and Ulleung Island several times in unusual joint air maneuvers between the two countries.
In August, two Russian TU-142 patrol planes also violated the KADIZ over the East Sea.
In order to prevent such cases, South Korea and Russia have been pushing to set up a military hotline between their air forces to exchange their flight information, according to the JCS.
The two sides began discussing the matter in 2004 and wrapped up consultations on the draft of the envisioned MOU in November last year, it added.
The air defense zone was first drawn in 1951 by the U.S. Air Force during the 1950-53 Korean War to prevent air clashes between nations surrounding the Korean Peninsula. Last year, Seoul expanded it to counter China's unilateral decision to expand its own to cover a reef and other islands off the southern coast.
The air zone is not part of a country's air space and not bound by international law.
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · October 22, 2019
6. International sanctions hit North Korea's coal and fishing industries hard
Just working in the mines is a human rights abuse.
Coal mines have been particularly hard hit ever since the export of coal was banned by international sanctions. Some mines have stopped producing coal entirely. This has caused economic difficulties for coal miners, the source explained.
There has been an increase in coal for heating purposes with the start of autumn. Miners are throwing caution to the wind and working in mines under dangerous and even fatal conditions to earn as much as they can, the source added.
"Miners enter the mines with just a knapsack and dig for coal with a spade. They face death in tunnels that don't have props properly installed," another source in the region told Daily NK. "In September, seven North Koreans who went into dig for coal were crushed when the tunnel they were in collapsed. Three died on the spot and the others were rushed to the hospital, but they will most likely not recover."
International sanctions hit North Korea's coal and fishing industries hard
dailynk.com · October 22, 2019
 North Korean fishing boats on the water near Wonsan, Kangwon Province. / Image: Daily NK
International sanctions on coal exports and fuel imports are causing immense difficulties for North Koreans in the country's coal and fishing industries, Daily NK sources recently reported.
"Mining operations at the Sunchon Cooperative Enterprise have come to a standstill due to a lack of funds. The enterprise has failed to properly install props to keep the mine shafts from collapsing, so the shafts have been caving in. There continues to be fatal accidents involving miners," a South Pyongan Province-based source told Daily NK on Friday.
Coal mines have been particularly hard hit ever since the export of coal was banned by international sanctions. Some mines have stopped producing coal entirely. This has caused economic difficulties for coal miners, the source explained.
There has been an increase in coal for heating purposes with the start of autumn. Miners are throwing caution to the wind and working in mines under dangerous and even fatal conditions to earn as much as they can, the source added.
"Miners enter the mines with just a knapsack and dig for coal with a spade. They face death in tunnels that don't have props properly installed," another source in the region told Daily NK. "In September, seven North Koreans who went into dig for coal were crushed when the tunnel they were in collapsed. Three died on the spot and the others were rushed to the hospital, but they will most likely not recover."
North Korea's fishermen are also facing dangerous situations partially due to the impact of international sanctions.
"There are frequent accidents involving fishing boats in the Hanchon region of Pyongwon. They go out to sea and their engines breakdown," a source based in South Pyongan Province told Daily NK.
Fishermen are no longer able to acquire diesel fuel from the state because of international sanctions and North Korea's economic downturn. They instead have turned to private diesel fuel merchants or have bought fuel from Chinese vessels. The fuel is low quality, but they just have to make due with what they get, Daily NK sources said.
The use of such low quality fuel overheats boat engines and causes frequent engine failures. At their worst, these failures lead to extremely dangerous situations where the lives of the fishermen are at risk.
"Boats that have gone out to sea will stop running because of poor quality fuel. The sailors have to row their ship back to shore and get towed to the harbor," one of the sources explained. "That's if they are lucky. Some boats have not been heard from in months."
Daily NK
previously reported that North Korean fishermen are risking their lives to catch enough fish to meet state-set quotas.
*Translated by Violet Kim
dailynk.com · October 22, 2019
7. North Korea's coal smuggling continues full speed ahead
China is complicit in north Korean sanctions evasion and should be held accountable.
"North Korean coal stored at Nampo Port [in South Pyongan Province] has been secretly coming into Huludao Port in China's Liaoning Province," a China-based source told Daily NK on Monday.
The cargo is usually transported and unloaded at night to avoid satellite-based surveillance conducted by the international community, Daily NK sources explained.
This is interesting. I will look forward to hearing the assessment from party and leadership experts regarding the shift from the workers party to the Ministry of Coal.
Ordinarily, North Korea's coal exports are managed directly by the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), but recent illegal exports to China were ordered by the country's Ministry of Coal Industry, Daily NK sources said.
"Coal is an important resource typically transported by order of party [WPK]. This time the Ministry of Coal Industry [an organization part of the country's government apparatus] that gave the order," said the China-based source. "That's because the party likely told the Ministry of Coal Industry to manage coal [exports] by themselves."
North Korean party officials may have delegated the illegal export of coal to the Ministry of Coal Industry so that they would be able to obtain foreign currency without being directly accused of violating international sanctions. Faced with signs that North Korea's coal industry may collapse due to sanctions on coal exports, party officials may have actually encouraged the smuggling of the coal by ordering the ministry to quickly sell it off.
North Korea's coal smuggling continues full speed ahead - DailyNK
dailynk.com · October 22, 2019
As part of North Korea's coal smuggling operations abroad to earn foreign currency, North Korean-flagged vessels have been unloading coal at a port in China in defiance of international sanctions, Daily NK has learned.
"North Korean coal stored at Nampo Port [in South Pyongan Province] has been secretly coming into Huludao Port in China's Liaoning Province," a China-based source told Daily NK on Monday.
The cargo is usually transported and unloaded at night to avoid satellite-based surveillance conducted by the international community, Daily NK sources explained.
Daily NK was unable to confirm whether the final destination of the coal was Huludao Port, another area in southern China, or an entirely different country.
Ordinarily, North Korea's coal exports are managed directly by the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), but recent illegal exports to China were ordered by the country's Ministry of Coal Industry, Daily NK sources said.
"Coal is an important resource typically transported by order of party [WPK]. This time the Ministry of Coal Industry [an organization part of the country's government apparatus] that gave the order," said the China-based source. "That's because the party likely told the Ministry of Coal Industry to manage coal [exports] by themselves."
North Korean party officials may have delegated the illegal export of coal to the Ministry of Coal Industry so that they would be able to obtain foreign currency without being directly accused of violating international sanctions. Faced with signs that North Korea's coal industry may collapse due to sanctions on coal exports, party officials may have actually encouraged the smuggling of the coal by ordering the ministry to quickly sell it off.
Since the beginning of last month, cargo trucks have been regularly spotted departing from coal mines in Sunchon, Chaedong, Tokchon, Kaechon, Pukchang and other areas of South Pyongan Province and heading in the direction of Nampo Port.
"Since September, coal that was transported from various regions have been piling up at the port," a Pyongyang-based source told Daily NK. "The coal will likely be transported overseas."
United Nations Security Council
Resolution 2371
bans North Korea from exporting coal. North Korea has previously been caught smuggling coal by transferring coal shipments to other ships (transshipment) in international waters, or by turning off the AIS (automatic identification system) on its vessels.
A midterm report released on Aug. 30 by the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee on North Korea Panel of Experts included
suspected cases
of North Korean coal flowing into other countries. The panel also reported that North Korea had been discovered exporting coal amounting to 930,000 metric tons over 127 trips between January and April.
The resurfacing of accusations against North Korea smuggling coal into China is expected to intensify criticism of both North Korea and China for their violations of international sanctions.
North Korea's illegal coal exports have also led to a spike in the price of coal in the country. Daily NK sources have reported that coal prices rose from August after rumors began circulating that North Korea would begin to export coal in large quantities. In Pyongyang, the price of coal rose from KPW 60,000 per ton in early August to KPW 70,000 per ton by mid-August. By the beginning of October, the price of coal had reportedly risen to KPW 130,000 per ton.
"By the start of October the going price of coal from the mines was KPW 120,000 per ton. In Pyongyang, it had risen to KPW 180,000 per ton," another Pyongyang-based source told Daily NK.
In sum, the price of coal appears to have more than tripled between early August and mid-October.
"North Korean coal is going for KPW 120,000 to 130,000, but North Korean coal traders will likely be asking Chinese coal buyers for about 1.5 to three times the price of freshly-made coal to cover transportation costs to Nampo Port and other expenses," the source added. "North Korea will be able to earn a significant amount of foreign currency through illegal coal exports."
Daily NK has previously reported on North Korea's export of coal into China despite Chinese authorities
own tightening of regulations on its import, and cited North Korea-based sources to report in May about
a spike in coal prices in South Hamgyong Province.
*Translated by Violet Kim
dailynk.com · October 22, 2019
8. Seoul City Mulls Making Public Spaces Devoid of Rallies
Please refrain from these authoritarian tendencies. South Korea must remain a democracy and to do that it needs to protect the freedoms of speech, press, and assembly.
The Seoul Metropolitan Government plans to set aside one day per month on which no events or rallies will be permitted in major public spaces like Cheonggye Stream, Gwanghwamun Square and Seoul Plaza in downtown Seoul.
The move came amid mounting complaints over noise and congestion in those places, which have lost their appeal as places for rest and relaxation in the midst of the city's forest of buildings, and have been transformed into scenes of massive rallies almost every day.
 /Newsis
The city hopes to restore those places to make them more accessible and pleasant for Seoul citizens who want to visit there to take some rest, and plans to gradually increase the number of such rally-free days there.
City officials anticipate widespread public support for the move.
english.chosun.com
9. S. Korea decides to give up developing country status in the WTO
Wow. This seems like a significant move. A recognition of the maturity of South Korea (not only economically but politically as well). I wonder if it is related to the burden sharing/SMA negotiations. This is one thing that cannot be "held against" the South during negotiations (i.e., South Korea taking advantage of the WTO when it is really an economically advanced country). This is another indicator of the ROK aligning itself with the US and the west versus another nation that claims developing country status: China.
S. Korea decides to give up developing country status in the WTO
donga.com
Posted October. 22, 2019 07:30,
Updated October. 22, 2019 07:30
S. Korea decides to give up developing country status in the WTO. October. 22, 2019 07:30. by Hye-Ryung Choi
[email protected].
The South Korean government has decided to give up developing country status in the World Trade Organization (WTO) that gives the country benefits in subsidies and tariff reductions. Much controversy is hence expected between the agricultural sector and the government as the former demands a compensation of 10 trillion won in return while the latter argues that the decision will have no impact on the agricultural industry.
According to officials of the South Korean government and National Assembly on Monday, South Korea has decided to give up its developing country status in the WTO and is mulling over the timing of announcement. It is highly likely that Economy and Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki will preside over a meeting of finance ministers and make the announcement there. Government officials, including Vice Finance Minister Kim Yong-beom, are scheduled to meet with domestic agricultural organizations at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) on Tuesday to persuade them of the decision.
The U.S. has been calling for the WTO to reform its rules as China and India have grown rapidly taking advantage of their developing country status in the organization. The world's largest economic organization stipulates the benefits to be received by developing countries in about 150 articles in its agreement. The benefits include tariff benefits for the items exported from developing countries to developed countries and subsidies given to domestic industries. U.S. President Donald Trump said on July 26 that if there was no progress within 90 days, the U.S. would unilaterally stop treating those nations as developing countries. The deadline set by President Trump falls on October 23.
The South Korean government views that the country will receive the same benefits in the agricultural sector even after it gives up its developing country status. That is because the U.S. said numerous times in official WTO meetings and unofficial discussions in the past that countries will continue to take advantage of the same tariff benefits. Furthermore, Seoul thinks that there are few negotiating table left to argue the country's developing status as the Doha Development Agenda (DDA), which is the last trade negotiation-round of the WTO, has been pending for 19 years.
Seoul has taken into consideration the fact that it has little justifiable reason to maintain its developing country status when it has many pending issues to discuss with Washington. Defense cost negotiations with the U.S. for next year's shared defense costs have already begun and the U.S. will determine on November 13 whether to invoke Section 121 tariffs on automotive imports from South Korea. "There is a possibility that a trade spat between the U.S. and China would develop into a spat between the U.S. and South Korea if the latter maintains its developing country status," a South Korean government official said.
The domestic agricultural industry is asking for 10 trillion won in compensation for the country's giving up of developing country status. But the government has not come up with proper countermeasures on the grounds that the decision would have no impact on the industry. The Federation of Korean Agricultural and Stockbreeding Industries formed an emergency response committee and asking the government to increase the agricultural budget to 5% of the nation's budget and make up for the shortage in cooperative funds in farming and fishing communities. A 5% of next year's national budget is equivalent to 25.7 trillion won, which is bigger than the next year's budget (15.3 trillion won) for the Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs Ministry.
donga.com
10. Trump says 'lot of things going on' regarding North Korea
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Excerpts:
"There's some very interesting information on North Korea. A lot of things are going on. And that's going to be a major rebuild at a certain point," he added.
His remarks came amid skepticism over diplomacy with the recalcitrant North, which deepened due to the absence of progress in working-level negotiations that Washington and Pyongyang resumed in Sweden on Oct. 5 after a monthslong pause.
The North declared the negotiations as a breakdown, accusing the U.S. of having come to the table "empty-handed." On the contrary, the U.S. cast the talks as "good discussions" and agreed to Sweden's offer to resume talks with the North in two weeks' time after the Oct. 5 meeting.
Apparently mindful of skepticism over his diplomacy with the North, Trump boasted of his ties with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Trump says 'lot of things going on' regarding North Korea
The Korea Times · October 22, 2019
 U.S. President Donald J. Trump speaks during a Cabinet Meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, USA, Oct. 21, 2019. EPA-Yonhap
U.S.
President Donald Trump said Monday that "a lot of things are going on" regarding North Korea, as doubts over the regime's will to denuclearize rose after the breakdown of nuclear talks with Pyongyang earlier this month.
During a Cabinet meeting, Trump also mentioned the prospects of a "major rebuild" while touting his engagement with the North, with a renewed claim that if somebody else became president, "you'd, right now, be in a big war."
"Something is going to be happening with North Korea too," Trump said, according to a transcript from the White House.
"There's some very interesting information on North Korea. A lot of things are going on. And that's going to be a major rebuild at a certain point," he added.
His remarks came amid skepticism over diplomacy with the recalcitrant North, which deepened due to the absence of progress in working-level negotiations that Washington and Pyongyang resumed in Sweden on Oct. 5 after a monthslong pause.
The North declared the negotiations as a breakdown, accusing the U.S. of having come to the table "empty-handed." On the contrary, the U.S. cast the talks as "good discussions" and agreed to Sweden's offer to resume talks with the North in two weeks' time after the Oct. 5 meeting.
Apparently mindful of skepticism over his diplomacy with the North, Trump boasted of his ties with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
"In the meantime, North Korea is - I like Kim; he likes me. We get along," he said. "I respect him; he respects me. You could end up in a war."
It remains to be seen whether the North will come out for dialogue anytime soon.
Since the collapse of the latest talks, Pyongyang's state media have called for self-reliance, with observers raising possibilities of the North setting off major provocations, such as an intercontinental ballistic missile, to bolster its bargaining leverage.
Trump's mention of a "major rebuild" appears aimed at highlighting economic benefits that would come with Pyongyang's denuclearization. Washington has repeatedly talked of a "bright future," stressing the North's economic potential. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · October 22, 2019
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11. Trump predicts mysterious 'major rebuild' of North Korea
I am still very suspect of these reports that we somehow offered tourism development in the north at the talks in Stockholm. I just do not see our negotiators doing that. I think people are looking at the video POTUS showed Kim in Singapore and listening to comments by Trump aides who say he still views himself in the hospitality business and they are leaping to the conclusion that we are offering to develop tourism in north Korea. I just do not see us making that kind of offer or Kim even being receptive to it unless he can control the income and use it for his royal court economy and development of nuclear weapons and missile systems which is what he does with the tourist revenue from China and what he did with the revenue from the Kumgang Mountain resort and that he wants to do with his ongoing tourism projects.
Excerpts:
Yet financial difficulties and the difficulty of obtaining building materials because of sanctions prevented the project from meeting deadlines, and it was delayed twice from an initial estimated completion date of last April 15 - the birthday of the regime's founder Kim Il Sung known as the Day of the Sun - to Oct. 10 - the founding anniversary of the North's ruling Workers' Party - to finally next year's Day of the Sun.
The importance of the Wonsan-Kalma resort for Kim's economic development agenda may have prompted the United States to offer its help with the project as a carrot in the nuclear negotiations. Trump himself, with his background in real estate development, applauded the North's tourism potential after his first summit with Kim in Singapore last year, specifically referring to its "great beaches," which he said would make for ideal venues for condos.
 Donald TrumpU.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said there would be a "major rebuild" of North Korea at some point, and he referred to some "very interesting information" he recently obtained in regard to the country.
It was unclear whether the remark, delivered near the end of a cabinet meeting, alluded to some progress in Washington's stalled denuclearization negotiations with Pyongyang or whether it could be another of Trump's idiosyncratic ideas of striking an ultimate deal with the regime.
Earlier in the briefing, in which he also discussed Ukraine and whistle-blowing in his administration, Trump again credited himself for preventing a "big war with North Korea." He claimed that "if somebody else became president, with that same mindset that they had," war may have broken out.
The president went on to underscore his personal chemistry with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, saying there was mutual respect in the relationship that was lacking in Kim's interactions with the preceding Barack Obama administration.
Reflective of this, Trump claimed that former President Obama "tried 11 times" to call Kim over the phone, but that "the gentleman on the [other] side did not take his call."
"Lack of respect," Trump said. "But he takes my call."
Trump's comment about a "rebuild" may be connected to a report on Saturday from a South Korean newspaper, the Hankook Ilbo, relating to a development offer made by U.S. envoys to their North Korean counterparts at nuclear talks in Stockholm on Oct. 5.
Citing a high-ranking South Korean diplomat familiar with the discussions, the report said one of the various economic concessions brought up by the U.S. delegation in exchange for the North's denuclearization was a proposal to help develop the Wonsan-Kalma coastal tourist area, a massive beach resort under construction on the country's eastern shoreline that is one of Kim's pet projects.
Since early last year, North Korea has devoted immense resources and attention to developing the 5-kilometer (3.1-mile) stretch of beach in Kalma into a tourist spot, complete with rows of hotels, restaurants and shops capable of attracting visitors.
Kim has been invested in the project since its inception, personally ordering its completion in the "shortest time" possible in a New Years' address and making major revisions to the plans during an on-site visit last October after he found that it wasn't "perfect in the artistic aspect," according to the North's Korean Central News Agency English-language report.
Kim has attempted to place the project in the context of the North's struggle to grow amid heavy international sanctions, saying that the Wonsan-Kalma coastal tourist area "would be an on-target impact on hostile forces and is precisely a decisive battle for safeguarding the authority of the Party and a worthwhile work for creating and bringing into a reality the happiness of the people."
Yet financial difficulties and the difficulty of obtaining building materials because of sanctions prevented the project from meeting deadlines, and it was delayed twice from an initial estimated completion date of last April 15 - the birthday of the regime's founder Kim Il Sung known as the Day of the Sun - to Oct. 10 - the founding anniversary of the North's ruling Workers' Party - to finally next year's Day of the Sun.
The importance of the Wonsan-Kalma resort for Kim's economic development agenda may have prompted the United States to offer its help with the project as a carrot in the nuclear negotiations. Trump himself, with his background in real estate development, applauded the North's tourism potential after his first summit with Kim in Singapore last year, specifically referring to its "great beaches," which he said would make for ideal venues for condos.
While it is unknown how the North's envoys responded to the offer in Sweden, Kim Myong-gil, Pyongyang's top negotiator in the talks, announced shortly after the meeting that the discussions had fallen apart because Washington had not relented from its "old viewpoint and attitude" that the North undertakes denuclearization first before receiving any economic concessions. David Stilwell, U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, testified at a Senate hearing last week that the United States will need to "encourage [North Korea] to continue" diplomatic engagement, namely by considering arrangements that could address the regime's security interests, though he appeared to rule out sanctions relief.
"There's only one thing that North Korea thinks about," Stilwell said, in reference to the North's fixation with its security. "A lot of these other things that they throw out there are distracters, leverage in some form."
BY SHIM KYU-SEOK [
[email protected]]
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com
12. DMZ entry control issue up for high-level talks
Yes a point of friction. But these assemblymen must recall the purpose of the Armistice - to prevent a resumption of hostilities. Therefore a certain level of security is necessary and control of the DMZ in a way that prevent miscalculation and misunderstanding that can lead to conflict is paramount. The South Korean military has actually done an excellent job of controlling access to the DMZ for decades under the auspices of UNC authority.
I understand the desire of many in the Moon administration to turn the DMZ into something peaceful and symbolic and that can be accessed by the public. But we should remember that there has been no reduction in the threat from the north. The Comprehensive MIlitary Agreement attempted to build trust and reduce tension but the measures have been decidedly one sided. The ROK has implemented all the measures which actually increases risk to the ROK because again there has been no reduction in the threat from the north.
Excerpts:
A day earlier, in a parliamentary audit session at the National Assembly, Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul admitted the need for "legal improvements" to the UNC's jurisdiction over entry into the DMZ as stipulated under the terms of the armistice agreement that ended hostilities in the 1950-53 Korean War.
The comment came as a response to Rep. Chun Jung-bae, who said the lack of recourse for Seoul in the event that the UNC forbids DMZ entry "completely violates the principles of the rule of law and democracy," and stressed the necessity of an institutional supplement to allow for non-military usage of the DMZ.
"If you look at the armistice agreement, [the UNC's] control over entry into the DMZ is limited to matters of a military nature," Kim answered. "There have been issues raised about the legality of entry control over non-military matters, like environmental inspections, research into historical artifacts or visits to guard posts."
Kim also acknowledged there had been "differences in opinion" between the government and the UNC about entry control over the DMZ and the military demarcation line - the formal border separating the two Koreas - but that the two sides were in close talks to alleviate these disagreements.
The remarks stood out as a rare disclosure from a high-ranking official in Seoul about a major component of the armistice agreement linked to Seoul's sovereignty over its own territory.
The UNC, while a multinational command structure, is commanded by the head of the United States Forces Korea, and is effectively regarded as a U.S.-led organ.
South Korea's Defense Ministry on Tuesday said it was in discussions with the United Nations Command (UNC) over entry rights into the demilitarized zone (DMZ), in response to disagreements about usage of the area.
The ministry's spokesperson, Choi Hyun-soo, said the entry control issue was being discussed with the UNC through multiple channels ranging from working-level officials to high-ranking figures. The UNC's deputy commander, Vice Admiral Stuart Mayer of the Royal Australian Navy, and Chung Suk-hwan, Seoul's deputy defense minister for national defense policy, are to conduct the high-level talks, according to ministry sources.
A day earlier, in a parliamentary audit session at the National Assembly, Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul admitted the need for "legal improvements" to the UNC's jurisdiction over entry into the DMZ as stipulated under the terms of the armistice agreement that ended hostilities in the 1950-53 Korean War.
The comment came as a response to Rep. Chun Jung-bae, who said the lack of recourse for Seoul in the event that the UNC forbids DMZ entry "completely violates the principles of the rule of law and democracy," and stressed the necessity of an institutional supplement to allow for non-military usage of the DMZ.
"If you look at the armistice agreement, [the UNC's] control over entry into the DMZ is limited to matters of a military nature," Kim answered. "There have been issues raised about the legality of entry control over non-military matters, like environmental inspections, research into historical artifacts or visits to guard posts."
Kim also acknowledged there had been "differences in opinion" between the government and the UNC about entry control over the DMZ and the military demarcation line - the formal border separating the two Koreas - but that the two sides were in close talks to alleviate these disagreements.
The remarks stood out as a rare disclosure from a high-ranking official in Seoul about a major component of the armistice agreement linked to Seoul's sovereignty over its own territory.
The UNC, while a multinational command structure, is commanded by the head of the United States Forces Korea, and is effectively regarded as a U.S.-led organ.
Under Seoul's Moon Jae-in administration, which has actively pursued peace-building efforts on the Korean Peninsula, the DMZ has emerged as a significant pressure point in the South Korea-U.S. alliance, particularly as Seoul and Washington diverged in regards to exchanges with North Korea.
Last August, South Korea requested to send a train through the DMZ as part of a project to inspect and ultimately modernize the North's railways, but the UNC rejected the proposal, citing there wasn't enough time to review the request. In January this year, the UNC derailed the South Korean government's plans to send humanitarian aid in the form of Tamiflu, an influenza medicine, because the trucks that would be used to transport the drugs were banned by U.S. economic sanctions on the North.
Separately, South Korea also needed to obtain the UNC's approval to build three so-called peace trails in border towns of the DMZ, an initiative that was meant to encourage inter-Korean civilian exchanges toward an eventual transformation of the zone into a peace park. Those permits were granted, but questions continue to loom about Seoul's autonomy to pursue non-military policies related to the DMZ without backing from Washington.
On the controversy, a Unification Ministry official told reporters on Tuesday that Seoul would work to "institutionalize" future DMZ entry issues with the UNC, by improving relevant regulations and manuals, so as to alleviate issues related to non-military initiatives - within the framework of the armistice agreement. A component of this process, the official said, would be to create a guideline to gauge whether a project could be classified as military or non-military.
BY SHIM KYU-SEOK, JEONG YONG-SOO [
[email protected]]
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com
13. Strange things happen in NK
Tong Kim served as an interpreter and advisor for multiple high level US diplomats and delegations engaging with north Korea for the past few decades so he has a tremendous amount of experience with north Korean leadership.
However, I have to disagree with him on this point. US flexibility on the denuclearization process is not going to alter Kim Jong-un's calculus, behavior, or strategy. The definition of "flexibility" for the north is providing concessions (i.e., lifting of sanctions) and the extreme definition of "flexibility " that Kim is ultimately striving for is appeasement. This will allow him to continue to pursue strategy unimpeded to dominate the peninsula under the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
By Tong Kim
Last Wednesday, Oct. 16, North Korea released a picture of its leader Kim Jong-un riding a white horse on the snow-covered top of Mount Paektu. The news agency reported that on horseback, Chairman Kim renewed his determination to build "a powerful and prosperous country against all headwinds" overcoming the "difficulties and hardships from sanctions and pressure from the hostile forces."
According to Pyongyang's storyline, his grandfather Kim Il-sung was riding a white horse, commanding "revolutionary guerrilla warfare against Japanese colonialists," using Korea's highest mountain as his military base. The North's second ruler, Kim Jong-il, is said to have been born on the slope of the same mountain. Thus, began the legend of "Paektu bloodline" for the Kim dynasty.
Average North Koreans may not believe this fairytale-like legend, but they do not publicly question its veracity. The symbolism of the legend serves to consolidate the support and unity of the people for their leader. There may be the legacies of superstitious shamanic mysticism from old Korean culture still lingering in the minds of the people.
Another strange story, on Oct. 15, North Korea hosted a World Cup qualifier game competing with South Korea in an empty stadium in Pyongyang, with no spectators and no live broadcast of the game that ended with no score. The best result from the game, a South Korean player said, was "no injuries to the players."
It indeed was a strange way of hosting an international sports game that certainly did not help improve the already unfavorable image of North Korea. Perhaps the sponsors of the game had feared a defeat by the South Korean soccer team widely rated to be better than theirs.
Maybe, the North did not want to cooperate with the South on anything, as it has been shunning the South for months. The known reasons are joint military exercises that the South conducts with the U.S. and its military modernization program. The North says the downsizing or format of the exercises does not matter as long as their goal is preparation to invade the North.
Military training for readiness and modernizing military hardware are common practices among the nations of the world. The North does its own military training. It keeps developing ballistic missiles, including SLBMs that it test-fired recently. But it suspended launching ICBMs almost two years ago.
After the breakdown of working-level talks in Sweden Oct. 5, the North made it clear that it would not move first. Pyongyang is sticking to the end-of-the year deadline it set last April for the U.S. to return to the table with a new position. The North is still waiting for the U.S. to accept a step-by-step approach with reciprocal actions by both sides to take at the same time. It is not clear what Kim Jong-un may do, if the deadline is missed.
The North has enough weapons to deter foreign invasion. It is most concerned about its economy that is still working sluggishly somehow despite the impact of sanctions, for reasons that economists cannot explain. Sanctions did not end the North's nuclear program.
A few possible scenarios include: (1) continuation of the stalemate until after the 2020 U.S. elections, while the North continues to develop and test mid-range ballistic missiles; (2) Pyongyang's resumption of nuclear and ICBM tests and a return to the "fire and fury" of 2017, risking a nuclear war; (3) a breakthrough by U.S. flexibility on the methodology of denuclearization, including the North Korean proposal, to start making real progress.
The second option above ought be to avoided by all means. Nobody wants to go through the nightmare of 2017 again. Even when Kim was on Mount Paektu, it is unlikely he had thought of taking the second option, a prelude to self-destruction.
The two remaining options - a plateau in stalemate or a breakthrough - hinges upon Washington politics that seem to tie up Trump's hands on North Korea. Pyongyang knows if Trump loses in his re-election, U.S. policy will change again. Trump has been good for Kim, and Kim may decide to offer a modest, interim deal in support of Trump's re-election.
On the contrary, Kim may miscalculate that Trump will be inept to respond to his more provocative launch of another ICBM. Such a miscalculation could precipitate the very dangerous situation that Kim wants to avoid. As a minimum, the North should honor its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests.
It is ironic that Kim seems to have freer hands than Trump on nuclear talks at this juncture.
Tong Kim ([email protected]), a columnist for The Korea Times, is a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.
The Korea Times · October 21, 2019
14. South Korea's Moon Says Economy Faces 'Grave' Situation
Unfortunately the development of the "peace economy" with the north will not solve the economic problems in the South.
South Korea's Moon Says Economy Faces 'Grave' Situation
Bloomberg · by Jiyeun Lee · October 22, 2019
Moon Jae-in
Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg
Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here.
South Korea's export-dependent economy is facing a "grave situation" as the U.S.-China trade war and the spread of trade protectionism heap pressure on the global economy, President Moon Jae-in said in a parliament speech Tuesday.
Moon's speech comes after the latest South Korean export data point to another
dismal month for global trade. An escalation of tariffs from the trade war and ensuing uncertainty have hurt exports, investment and consumption in South Korea, shaving 0.4 percentage point off its economicgrowth this year, according to central bank estimates.
Moon's approval rating has been sliding in recent weeks, chiefly due to a
scandal related to a close political ally but also due to the country's weak economic performance. The pace of economic growth has been trending downward since Moon took office in 2017, and is expected to slow to around 2% this year, the weakest since the global financial crisis.
In Tuesday's speech, Moon urged parliament to approve the 2020 budget proposal, which would raise spending by 9.3% from this year's plan. South Korea's annual budgets typically have faced political wrangling in parliament, and tend to be approved close to the deadline after some amendments.
Bloomberg · by Jiyeun Lee · October 22, 2019
15. North Korea Faces an (Under) Population Bomb
No one knows more about north Korean demographics than Nick Eberstadt as he has had to sift through all of north Korea's misinformation and lies about its demographics. He actually probably has a better understanding than those in the north who analyze the facts and data through the lens of Kimilsungism and Juche.
Excerpts:
Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographics expert for the American Enterprise Institute, analyzed the North's first population census in 1994, when the population was estimated at around twenty-one million despite "a large chunk of military-age women being removed from the count to hide the corresponding proportion of military-age men."
The North's latest official census, conducted in 2008, showed a population of more than twenty-four million. Yet again, according to Eberstadt, the figures were doctored to hide the effects of famine, which is believed to have claimed as many as
one million lives.
This showed up in a
2002 study, which found that 39 percent of North Koreans were stunted with below-average height due to chronic malnutrition.
A new census planned for 2018 was reportedly canceled after Seoul cut funding for fear of breaching international sanctions on the North, Eberstadt told
North Korea News.
North Korea Faces an (Under) Population Bomb
The National Interest · by Anthony Fensom · October 21, 2019
Key point: North Korea's population will be unable to bring in immigrants to fix its falling population.
South Korea's
demographic decline might be alarming, but its northern neighbor is following a similar trajectory that it is desperately trying to cover up. That is the conclusion of analysts assessing the future of one of the world's most secretive and authoritarian regimes.
The current population of communist North Korea has been estimated at around twenty-five million, approximately half its southern, democratic rival, according to the
Central Intelligence Agency.
Yet despite not conducting a census in a decade, the North's population is seen peaking within two decades before following a similarly downward trend.
Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographics expert for the American Enterprise Institute, analyzed the North's first population census in 1994, when the population was estimated at around twenty-one million despite "a large chunk of military-age women being removed from the count to hide the corresponding proportion of military-age men."
The North's latest official census, conducted in 2008, showed a population of more than twenty-four million. Yet again, according to Eberstadt, the figures were doctored to hide the effects of famine, which is believed to have claimed as many as
one million lives.
This showed up in a
2002 study, which found that 39 percent of North Koreans were stunted with below-average height due to chronic malnutrition.
A new census planned for 2018 was reportedly canceled after Seoul cut funding for fear of breaching international sanctions on the North, Eberstadt told
North Korea News.
The North's population growth has already slowed from its peak in the late 1960s and early 1970s of an estimated 3 percent to its current fertility rate of 1.9, below the "replacement" level rate of around 2.1, according to
UN data.
With South Korea's fertility rate also dropping, hitting a
record low of 0.98 in 2018, Eberstadt sees parallels in the North's decline.
He said mortality and fertility trends in North and South Korea were "surprisingly similar" when he reviewed the original 1994 data, when Pyongyang was relatively open concerning such statistics.
"Would I be shocked if fertility in North Korea was down below the replacement level, maybe not quite as radically as in the South, but heading in the same direction? That wouldn't make me die of surprise, let's just say that," he said.
Anecdotal evidence points to North Korean families hesitating at having more than one child due to the added financial burden of education and child rearing, despite reports of the regime deliberately denying access to contraceptives and prohibiting abortion.
Such measures have reportedly been ramped up in response to the declining birthrate.
"Punishments for those who perform illegal abortions and use contraceptive devices are already in place, but this new policy bans all kinds of abortions and birth control procedures, including even those performed at hospitals,"
Radio Free Asia reported in 2015.
Demographers see the North's population starting to decline from
2044-some twenty years later than the South. Yet unlike Asian neighbors, such as Japan, North Korea is unlikely to attract an influx of foreign workers to help compensate for a shrinking labor force, while it also lacks the financial resources to support child-rearing.
The experience of the around ninety thousand "Zainichi" ethnic Koreans in Japan who returned to the North in the 1960s at the urging of Pyongyang likely would discourage any other would-be emigrants.
Many such returnees suffered hardship and even imprisonment in the North after being promised "Paradise on Earth," including free food and housing by the regime, with those who escaped describing it as "
hell, not paradise."
Even reunification, a stated goal of both Pyongyang and Seoul, is not seen reversing the demographic decline of either country.
An indicator of the impact comes from Germany, where reunification led to a rapid decline in the birthrate in eastern Germany post-unification, falling to 0.8, according to
Troy Stangarone, senior director and fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America.
While the number of births in the east eventually recovered, the higher fertility rate of 1.6 in some former East German states still remains well below the replacement level.
Although Korean reunification might proceed in a more orderly manner conducive to a steady fertility rate, "there is little indication that one could expect birth rates in the North to increase significantly once unification or economic integration occurred," Stangarone argues.
The latest CIA. data ranks the North as 127th globally in its fertility rate, but with a population growth rate of only 0.5 percent and zero migration.
The life expectancy of North Korea's citizens lags the South's by nearly twelve years, however, reflecting persistent food shortages where as many as 40 percent of the population are
undernourished.
Economic growth has also stagnated in recent decades under the North's "juche" (self-reliance) policies, with the regime hit hard by the collapse of the Soviet Union and more recently the impact of international sanctions over its nuclear weapons program.
After being evenly matched as recently as 1974, South Korea subsequently raced ahead with an export-driven growth program and its gross domestic product per capita is now some twenty times the North's.
While the North's current demographics give it "
some political leverage thanks to its stronger population growth" than the South, this advantage could soon dissipate.
The geopolitical implications of a weak economy combined with a diminishing population will not be lost on the ruling Kim dynasty. This is particularly the case when as many as 30 percent of its citizens are estimated to comprise either
active or reserve military personnel, with more than 1.2 million active personnel and some six million in reserve.
As much as Pyongyang might try to hide its population data, the analysis all points in the same direction.
Isolation might protect the "hermit kingdom" for now, but its demographic destiny cannot be avoided. The worry for policymakers is what the North might do in the meantime to bolster its faltering regime.
Anthony Fensom is an Australia-based freelance writer and consultant with more than a decade of experience in Asia-Pacific financial/media industries. This first appeared in September 2019.
The National Interest · by Anthony Fensom · October 21, 2019
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