The Low Down On the High Country | January 2022 |
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Happy January!
The new year is here and with it comes some important things to talk about. We've seen changes in short term rental rules, Covid numbers and weather. In my mind, one of these is a fun thing to talk about, another is not, and the third depends on how you see it.
Let's kick off with the fun! Christmas and New Years brought lots of snow, feet in fact! All of our mountains are open - with most showing 80% of trails available and bases between 50" and 75". It's taken a while to shovel out, but the skiing has been great, the sun is shining and spirits are high. If you're around, it's a great time to enjoy some other aspects of the county - check out Nordic skiing, go sledding or make forts! The blue bird days make doing anything outside a blast.
Moving on to Covid. Over the break, Summit County ranked #2 in the nation for positive Covid tests. This is not surprising giving the aggressive spread of the new Omicron variant and the number of tourists we get during this time. The good news is that the new form seems less dangerous and we've had ICU beds available.
This leaves us with short term rental rules. The county decided 2021 was the year take a hard look at the permits available and decide if numbers needed to be adjusted. Breck has been most aggressive here and has limited the number of STRs permitted to numbers below current. This is a very big deal - if you buy within town limits, your going to have to get on a waiting list if you're looking to rent as a way to offset cost of ownership. They are making exceptions, here's a link with more details.
After Breck made their decision final, Frisco stepped in with some considerations for permit limits in an effort to curb buyer migration, however nothing has been set yet. Dillon made some small changes but didn't set any permit limits. Silverthorne has opted to stay out of the conversation for now, and it seems that Copper and Keystone are off of the radar - the idea being they were built for short term stays.
Clearly snow and Covid are short term news, but the STR rules will be here to stay. New rules will make a big impact on ownership here, so as always reach out with questions on how this may effect your personal goals.
In the end, have a great week and a great January,
Ray
P.S. Calendars were sent. If you didn't get one, or need another, let me know!
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Your Monthly Answer to: How is the Market in Summit? |
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With 2021 over, it's a great time to try to sit back, look at numbers, see what happened and try to plan for 2022. Next month's newsletter will have complete 2022 numbers.
Below is a chart that reflects past inventory vs solds.
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Overall, sales in 2021 were extremely close to listing, which explains the low inventory, the low days on market and multiple offers being the norm. With this, prices rose - both list and sales. We saw an average appreciation of 25% percent over the year, driven buy high demand. The demand was two fold, second home owners had plenty of discretionary income to pull from and we had more primary homeowners join the market as working from home became the norm.
What does this mean for 2022? As much as I hate pulling out a non-existent crystal ball, I will take a stab and point out some factors that I see at play. Inflation is here and I expect this will be curbed to some point buy increasing interest rates. Higher interest rates will of course increase the cost of home loans and I think we'll see buyer demand slow as this happens. I expect sellers will see less multiple offer situations, and we may see higher days on market return. Appreciation will slow, but stay positive. Our recent buyers have been strong, seasoned buyers - cash or high down payments have been needed in this competitive market. These owners have weathered markets in the past and won't be quick to jump ship if things get bumpy. Overall, the market may get back to something more normal and sustainable.
What does this mean for sellers? Slower turn times on sales and we will have to be less aggressive with pricing. Good marketing will be as important as knowing the current market.
For buyers - homes that are priced well will still be in high demand. I encourage you to be educated and ready. If the right place pops up, be ready to jump. If you're flexible with your goals, the market may offer some value to those who can work outside of the box.
In all, I'm a fool to try to predict the future. I've had these types of questions a lot lately and I am willing to open my mouth and insert my foot to try to help you get a feel for what we may see. There are tons of unseen factors that may come in to play in 2022, so take this with a grain of salt.
Take care,
Ray
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This Month's Real Estate Statistics |
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There were a total of 238 transactions and $286,148,104 in monetary volume in November 2021. Year-to-date monetary volume is pacing up 36% from 2020 and transactions are up 7% from YTD 2020. The most active price point for November 2021 was between $1mil to $1.5mil with 45 transactions. There were 89 transactions above $1M. In November the average residential price was $1,113,676 and the average residential price per SF was $675.
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Summit County Real Estate Transactions |
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Average Sales Price
For 2021, the average sales as follows: 24.1% increase in Single-Family Homes, 22.6% increase in Multi-Family Homes, and 28.4% increase in Vacant Land.
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Single Family Homes
2006 - $737,253
2007 - $798,889
2008 - $835,803
2009 - $905,030
2010 - $770,797
2011 - $734,262
2012 - $764,445
2013 - $751,240
2014 - $784,779
2015 - $855,925
2016 - $934,163
2017 - $1,087,893
2018 - $1,142,905
2019 - $1,262,929
2020 - $1,386,525
2021 - $1,720,419 YTD
(24.1% increase YTD)
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Multi Family Homes
2006 - $333,501
2007 - $406,529
2008 - $463,633
2009 - $398,051
2010 - $425,080
2011 - $367,280
2012 - $353,339
2013 - $344,578
2014 - $357,612
2015 - $399,232
2016 - $409,673
2017 - $473,862
2018 - $523,519
2019 - $559,776
2020 - $606,487
2021 - $743,429 YTD
(22.6% increase YTD)
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Vacant Land
2006 - $311,951
2007 - $391,587
2008 - $470,260
2009 - $399,025
2010 - $336,625
2011 - $246,478
2012 - $309,512
2013 - $324,137
2014 - $318,230
2015 - $372,794
2016 - $353,500
2017 - $323,692
2018 - $366,814
2019 - $344,945
2020 - $368,859
2021 - $473,558 YTD
(28.4% increase YTD)
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If you are wondering what prices have done in Summit County over the long term, here is a graph of the average residential price from 1988-2020. (click to enlarge) |
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Summit County Real Estate Inventory
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As of January 1st, 2022, there were 82 active residential listings in Summit County and 26 land listings. Inventory is down 21.17% since last month which brings us to down to 0.42%.
As of January 1st, 2022, there were 468 pending sales in the County. 20 went pending in the past 2 weeks.
There were 502 loans in November 2021. 177 were related to sales, there were 218 REFIs and 107 loans were timeshare-related. The percentage of cash transactions for November was 26%.
Demographics: In November 2021, Front Range buyers were 42% of our market, 27% were 'locals' and 31% were out-of-state buyers. 0% of buyers were International.
At Cornerstone Real Estate Company, LLC, we maintain all of this data in Excel spreadsheets. Thanks to Land Title Guarantee for providing the monthly statistics. Please let us know if you would like a copy of the full set of data and it would be our pleasure to email it to you."
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Want direct access to the MLS?
Get your own login!
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Whether you are looking to buy or you need help selling your current property, we can give you the local knowledge and expertise you need to make the best decision.
With our MLS I can create a personal website just for you that gives you direct access to the Summit County MLS without having to log in. Searching the MLS allows you to see the most up to date and accurate information possible, since that is the same database that the Summit Realtors use. You will also be able to Save your favorite listings, and I can set it up to send you emails immediately when new listings come on the market that match your criteria.
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Cornerstone Real Estate Listing Updates
As of January 1st, 2022
Solds:
$777,000 - 4BD/3BA Townhome at 258 Cove Blvd in Dillon
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Arapahoe Events:
Breckenridge Events:
Copper Events:
Frisco Events:
Keystone Events:
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Fresh off the Press - The Latest News in Summit |
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A showcase of hand-crafted art created by the local artists of Summit County, Colorado. You can find us at the Silverthorne Outlet Mall, where you can browse a wide selection of wood art and signs, paintings, ceramics, and so much more!
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Ray Brueggemeier
Broker/Owner, Realtor®
Serving Buyers and Sellers in Summit County
60A Main Street Frisco, CO 804434
23110 US Hwy 6 Keystone, CO 80435
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