THIS WEEK IN WASHINGTON
December 4, 2020
Welcome to the Georgia edition of This Week in Washington. Thank you for your interest in politics and policy from the Peach State to the Potomac.
We are in the dog days of this Congressional session. The lame duck session which began this week is important, but just as important is the pandemic and the real prospect of safe and effective vaccines, control of the Senate and the runoff elections next month, and an ultimate decision on last month’s presidential election. We cover these subjects and more in Heard on the Hill.  

Al Jackson, our expert on defense, brings us up to date on all matters in the defense sector. Erik Paulsen addresses the need for Congress to enforce trade laws, and Steve Gordon takes a look at November’s biggest and most surprising Senate victory. Jesse Weathington provides an update on the latest in Georgia with his Gold Dome Report. As always, make sure to check out the Infographs for an in-depth look at current hot topics.
 
We will be back in mid-December for our 2020 wrap-up and holiday issue of This Week.
 
Y’all stay safe, healthy AND sane…

Todd Smith
Chairman, Georgia Group

Jesse Weathington
Director, Georgia Group
Heard on the Hill
by Todd Smith, Partner and Georgia Group Chairman; Steve Gordon, Managing Director; and
U.S. Rep. Erik Paulsen (2009-2019), Strategic Consultant

Senators returned to town Monday, and House Members came back Tuesday. The last hurrah of the 116th Congress begins. We see three backdrops for the lame duck session: the recounting of votes and certifying of the presidential election, the testing of the Republican Senate firewall in Georgia, and the decision by the Food and Drug Administration to award emergency use permits for the first two vaccines.
 
There is much more to discuss about the three backdrop stories than there is about the lame duck, so we will start there.

...Continued after the Gold Dome Report
Partner and
Georgia Group Chairman

Partner and
Georgia Group Director

Partner

Partner
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Gold Dome Report
by Jesse Weathington, Partner and Georgia Group Director
 
As 2020 hurtles towards its epic conclusion, Georgia continues to lead the nation in bizarre political surreality. We are still mired in the aftermath of the November presidential election, which stubbornly refuses to end, while simultaneously deluged with more than $300 million (so far) in dueling Senate runoff ads. If one happens to have more than one television on, odds are that at any moment both will have a political ad running.
Murphy’s Seventh Law of Combat reminds us that “the only thing more accurate than incoming enemy fire is incoming friendly fire.” The Republican ticket would do well to keep that in mind. The conundrum faced by the embattled incumbent duo of Senators Perdue and Loeffler is to emphasize their role as the only backstop to a Democratic trifecta in Washington D.C. and a Biden Administration. The message gets muddied when the Presidency is still being contested and it is verboten in some circles to mention said Biden Administration. The message gets downright murky when one has folks who, to use some local color, might be referred to as carpetbaggers (as always aided and abetted by scalawags), and are engaged in what Stacey Abrams would refer to as “voter suppression.” The problem is the vote they are suppressing is their own party’s base, by telling them not to vote. As the prophet Hosea admonished the Israelites, “they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind.”
Governor Brian Kemp has tried to maintain party unity, stating last evening that he supported cross-checking signatures to envelopes on mail-in ballots and that he shared President Trump’s frustration and supported his legal strategy, but referenced the Georgia Constitution’s separation of powers between the Governorship and Secretary of State. Both he and Secretary Raffensperger have steadfastly executed their responsibilities in office in the face of extreme pressure, although this has caused problems within the GOP between a presidential faction’s partisan base and those who are more focused on winning the senate run-offs.
Money and resources are flooding in from both sides of the partisan divide and given the stakes, both sides are pulling out all the stops, including conducting in-person GOTV and rallies. Vice President Mike Pence is in Atlanta today. President Donald Trump will be in Georgia tomorrow; his remarks will likely determine if the GOP will be able to unify and continue their streak of statewide run-off wins. In addition, the past weeks have seen many potential 2024 presidential hopefuls drop in to bolster the two Senators’ efforts and reconnect with supporters in the Peach State. Democratic star-power is not in short supply either, with former President Barack Obama and a host of other Democratic luminaries and celebrities making an all-out push to convince the coalition that narrowly carried the state for Biden to turn out again.
More prosaic recent developments include the re-election of State Senate President Pro-Tempore Butch Miller as the top-ranking Republican Senator in the chamber and the conclusion of the remaining state legislative run-offs. Of note as well was the election of former Atlanta City Councilman Kwanza Hall to temporarily fill the late John Lewis’ seat in the U.S. House. Representative Hall will serve until State Sen. Nikema Williams is sworn in for a full two-year term in January.
Heard on the Hill (continued)

The Presidency
Most supporters of the President know that his legal challenges to the November election are on their last legs. Wisconsin and Arizona confirmed their presidential election results, becoming the last two states to certify among the six states in which President Trump has contested his defeat. Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania have also certified their results. Georgia certified Vice President Biden’s victory on November 20th, but they are currently recounting at the request of the Trump campaign. Few people expect that the recount will significantly alter the result.
 
The Biden transition team is beginning to roll out their first selections for a new administration. Janet Yellen, former Chair of the Federal Reserve, received generally positive reviews when she was nominated to be Secretary of the Treasury. Cecilia Rouse, an economist who is currently the Dean of Princeton’s School of Public and International Affairs, was recently nominated to chair the Council of Economic Advisors.
 
We have heard discussion and rumors about individuals under consideration for other cabinet positions in a Biden Administration, but they are at this juncture rumor and conjecture. Two things are clear: there will be more women and minorities in the Biden cabinet than in any administration we can remember, and the Biden Administration will attempt to select immediately for second and third tier agency positions. These positions do not require Senate approval, just a security clearance.
 
Senator Roy Blunt (R-MO) is the Chairman of Senate Rules Committee, which has jurisdiction and responsibility for the inaugural ceremony. He and his committee are planning for a ceremony that will be smaller, socially distanced, and will be held outside as much as possible. The ceremony generally draws about 220,000 people, but they are planning for 120,000-160,000 people to attend the ceremony on January 20th. 
 
The Senate: The battle for control in 2021
Mark Kelly has been sworn in as Arizona’s newest U.S. Senator. His election brings the Republican majority down to two seats, which coincidentally is the exact number of seats up for grabs in Georgia’s two runoff elections to be held January 5th.
 
If Senators Perdue and Loeffler win – or if one of the Republican Senators win – Senator McConnell will continue to be the Majority Leader. If Jon Ossoff and Reverend Warnock both win, it will be a 50-50 Senate and the Vice President will break the tie. Senator Harris in all likelihood will be the next Vice President, so she would break ties in favor of Senator Schumer and the Democrats.
 
The Pandemic
More than 235,000 soldiers in the U.S. Army died in battle in World War II. As of today, over 271,000 Americans have lost their lives to the virus. The pandemic has been a nightmare for some and an economic disaster for others. It has changed our lives, changed our economy, and changed our perceptions. As we like to say, everything changes everything.
 
The ultimate way out of the pandemic is the production of safe and effective vaccines, and the cavalry is clearly coming. The Trump Administration pinned their hopes on Operation Warp Speed – a program conceived by Senator Roy Blunt, Chairman of the Labor, Health, and Human Services Appropriations Subcommittee.
 
Operation Warp Speed paid for the manufacture of the vaccines to start BEFORE they were approved by the Food and Drug Administration. That’s how Pfizer and Moderna and the Administration can have the vaccine ready to ship the day after they receive government approval. A snapshot of the schedule:
 
Monday, the Center for Disease Control’s (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices met. They recommended that healthcare workers would be prioritized to receive the vaccine first, followed by residents of long-term care facilities. The next step will be to decide which groups should have the next priority; it will be between adults over 65, adults with high-risk medical conditions, and essential workers. The CDC Director will make the ultimate recommendation, but priority will be carried out locally by Governors and the heads of jurisdictions.
 
On December 10th, the Food and Drug Administration’s Advisory Board will meet to review the clinical trial data and make a recommendation on issuing an emergency use authorization (EUA) to Pfizer. On December 17th, the FDA’s Advisory Board will similarly meet to make a recommendation on issuance of an EUA to Moderna.
 
Senator Blunt recently said that Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca/Oxford University, and maybe one additional company will ultimately produce an effective vaccine. “Pfizer and Moderna will have 40 million vials of vaccine ready to ship as soon as they get authorization. But since immunization will be a two-step process – a vaccine and a booster vaccine administered 30 days later – there is enough vaccine to take care of 20 million Americans. Production will ramp-up and significantly more vaccine will become available throughout the first quarter of 2021. All Americans who want a vaccine will be able to get one by Memorial Day or July 4th at the latest.”
 
The Lame Duck
Pandemic Economic Relief. Outlook: Weak. Speaker Pelosi refused to negotiate in October on the terms and amount of her relief program, betting that the election would bring a Democratic President and a Democratic Senate.
 
The Problem Solvers Group came out this week with a plan, which has provisions for state and local government assistance, more Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funding, unemployment assistance, as well as funds for more testing. The cost of their program is over $1.5 trillion – a non-starter for Senate Republicans – but it did get some discussion started.
 
A bipartisan group of Senators released a relief framework that would cost $908 billion. Then Leader McConnell and the Senate Republican caucus put out a new and very targeted relief program, but Senate Democrats didn’t – and won’t – go near it.
 
We are where we are. Two relief provisions that could be put into legislation during the lame duck are additional funds for unemployment and the PPP. Unemployment benefits under the CARES Act run out in December. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business groups sent a letter to Congress pushing for more PPP funds for small- and medium-sized businesses.
 
Democrats would also like to add coronavirus funding to several of the FY2021 appropriations bills; however, Republicans have signaled they will not accept that funding within the regular appropriations bills or the omnibus. They argue coronavirus spending should come under a specific relief bill.  Given these disparate and firm views on pandemic funding, getting any relief bill through Congress in the next week and a half will be a tough slog.
 
LATEST: House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer just announced they will support the $908 billion stimulus plan created by a bipartisan group of Senators.
 
Appropriations for the balance of the 2020-2021 Fiscal Year. Outlook: Something will pass. Money to keep the federal government open runs out in a few days. House and Senate Appropriators agreed last week on the total funds to be spent in each of the twelve appropriations measures and agreed to roll the bills into one omnibus. But the devil is in the details. The omnibus will ultimately pass, but don’t be surprised if they passed a continuing resolution that will allow current funding levels to continue into early 2021.
 
Defense Authorization. This bill has passed every year since the 1960’s, but the White House has concerns about some minor aspects of the bill and is threatening to veto the bill. It may well be that the concerns will get resolved as we get closer to Christmas.
 
Key Dates to Watch
December 11: House Majority Leader wants the lame duck session to end           
December 14: Early voting starts in Georgia
December 14: Electoral College Meets
December 18: Scheduling Senate adjournment
November’s Biggest and Most Surprising Victory
By Steve Gordon, Total Spectrum Managing Partner

At one time, Republican Senators represented many of the northeastern states. Today there are only two – Pennsylvania’s Senator Pat Toomey and Senator Susan Collins of Maine.
 
Senator Collins knew she would be targeted for defeat in 2020 because of her outspoken support for Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination, and she certainly was correct. Maine is not a populous state, having only two congressional districts. But campaign dollars poured in as this race became critical to the battle for control of the Senate. More than $360 million was spent in Maine on this race, or about $175 for every registered voter.
 
Public polls in 2020 never showed Senator Collins ahead. But she ultimately won by more than eight points – even while former Vice President Biden was defeating President Trump in Maine.
 
Senator Collins will chair the Senate Appropriations Committee in 2021 if Republicans keep control of the Senate.
Defense Update
By Al Jackson, Strategic Consultant to Total Spectrum
 
The United States Senate earlier this month introduced a government-wide $1.4 trillion spending package which includes $696 billion for defense. The government is currently operating on a continuing resolution that is set to expire on December 11. To avoid a government shutdown, Congress must either reconcile the House and Senate versions of spending bills into one measure and have the President sign it into law, or pass another continuing resolution. A separate COVID-19 relief package and the annual defense policy legislation, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), remain on the Congress’ list of things to do. 
 
The House passed its $694.6 billion Pentagon spending bill for Fiscal Year 2021 in July as part of a $1.3 trillion funding package. It included provisions to provide $1 million for the Army to rename ten bases that honor Confederate leaders and to bar the Trump Administration from using more Pentagon funds on border wall construction. Hence, it includes language reducing transfer authority from the requested $9.5 billion to $1.9 billion, and places additional oversight mechanisms on the Defense Department’s ability to reprogram funds.
 
As it relates to the Senate-passed defense appropriations bill, procurement would increase by $2.4 billion, which is well above the President’s initial budget request. To offset that increase, defense-wide, Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDT&E) was cut by $2.1 billion. The net effect is more money for buying today’s weapon systems and less funding for the development of future programs. The Senate bill added $1.7 billion to Navy and Marine Corps aircraft procurement, $452 million to aircraft for the Air Force and $159 million to Army aviation. Of that funding, $1.7 billion will end up with Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. 
 
This $1.7 billion plus-up results in 17 additional F-35 aircraft, 12 F-35As and five F-35C aircraft carrier variants, which would bring the total FY 2021 buy to 96 aircraft. The Appropriations Committee’s justification for such a large increase is the Air Force’s unfunded priority list for the increase of 12 new F-35A conventional takeoff and landing variants. The House version of Defense funding added a less substantial $1.4 billion, which translates into 12 F-35 aircraft. When the two versions are reconciled, expect a significant increase in F-35 aircraft. 
 
Of particular note to companies such as Raytheon and Northrop Grumman Corporation, the Senate defense funding bill includes $10.2 billion for the Missile Defense Agency, an increase of $1.1 billion above the president’s budget request, which includes an additional $319.6 million for an eighth THAAD battery; $250 million for Ground-Based Midcourse Defense Reliability/SLEP; and $200 million for risk reduction on Ground-Based Midcourse Defense. Additionally, the legislation fully funds the Next Generation Interceptor, a SM-3 Block IB multi-year procurement contract; and the Long-Range Discrimination Radar. 
 
As it pertains to missile warning, the Senate, similar to the House, raises concern about the Pentagon’s plans for the Space Development Agency (SDA) to develop missile tracking satellites instead of the congressionally supported Missile Defense Agency. Added to the legislation is language that directs DoD to include in their FY2022 request a comprehensive acquisition strategy for the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS) and to fully fund the effort. The Senate version adds $140 million to the MDA’s budget for HBTSS and approved SDA’s request for a transfer of $20 million to its budget for the effort associated with missile defense.
 
In other provisions, the legislation fully funds the B-21 bomber program, however, many of the Air Force’s other major development programs (RDT&E) received slight cuts. Funding for one of its biggest priorities, the Advanced Battle Management System, shrank from $302 million to $208 million. The committee cited “poor justification” as a reason for the cuts.
 
The Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance program also experienced a cut despite the recent first flight of the full-scale demonstrator aircraft in September. The Air Force requested $1 billion to continue further development, however, the Senate cut that request by $70 million. 
 
As it pertains to Naval warfare, the bill provides money to buy nine ships for a total procurement price tag of $21.35 billion, which is $1.44 billion more than the President’s request but less than what the House appropriated. The ships include one attack submarine, which is one less than the House bill but a match to what the administration requested; a Constellation-class frigate; two destroyers; and two towing and salvage ships. The Senate bill also calls for nine P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and four E-2D Advanced Hawkeyes, as well as 24 F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters, which is of great importance to the Boeing Company. 
 
The Senate legislation fully funds the Pentagon’s $449 million budget request for defense-wide 5G projects, which was $19 million more than what the House funded. In their budget justification, House appropriators cited “historical under-execution” for its $430 million recommended allocation. The Pentagon is working with industry on multiple ongoing 5G experiments that are underway at military bases across the country. The department recently awarded $600 million in contracts for the effort.
 
On November 24, the Air Force selected four Air National Guard bases to receive 24 C-130J cargo planes, including Savannah Air National Guard Base in Georgia. This move drew the ire of top Democrats on the House Committee on Armed Services, who contend this decision could influence the state’s upcoming Senate runoff races. The Air Force believes they are acting consistently with both versions of the Senate and House funding bills, as the legislation includes additional C-130Js. Naming the bases now allows the Air Force to move forward with the environmental impact process without delay, which would enable a timely housing of the C-130J aircraft. The Air Force first notified Congress back in March that it planned to select three Air National Guard bases to host new C-130J aircraft.
 
Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), a member of the Senate Committee on Armed Services who will be in the runoff election scheduled for January 5, 2021, immediately hailed the basing decision and pointed to his own work trying to garner additional resources for the state’s military installations, which include Robins Air Force Base and Fort Benning. “This is extremely exciting news for Savannah’s airmen and the entire coastal community. We’ve made it a top priority to modernize and upgrade military equipment in order to preserve our competitive advantage around the world, and the 165th Airlift Wing is a critical component of that effort.”
 
House and Senate conferees met earlier this month to reconcile the House and Senate versions of the NDAA. Issues of contention include the renaming of Confederate-named military installations and the Afghanistan drawdown of military personnel. In a letter to conferees, a sizeable contingent of 37 Senate Democrats advocated moving forward with the renaming of the bases in spite of the veto threat by President Trump. 
Opinion: Congress has a duty to enforce foreign trade deals
By Erik Paulsen, Total Spectrum Strategic Consultant
 
Now that election day is behind us, new and returning lawmakers in both parties are looking ahead to next year. They’re strategizing for what surely will be a momentous legislative session.
 
Trade enforcement deserves a spot high on my former colleagues’ to-do list. Holding our trading partners accountable to pacts, and negotiating robust new agreements with our allies, would create jobs and help our economy fully recover from COVID-19.
 
International trade has long been a boon for the U.S. economy. Last year, the United States traded nearly $6 trillion worth of goods and services with foreign nations. Nearly 39 million U.S. jobs rely on international trade. At a time when millions of Americans who want to work cannot find jobs, it’s never been more important to preserve and strengthen these economic opportunities.
 
Unfortunately, foreign trade barriers threaten many of these economic benefits.
 
For instance, local content requirements in Canada, Brazil, South Africa and India limit the amount of U.S. television programming that can be broadcast within their borders. And the world’s preeminent form of audio IP theft, “stream ripping” — illegally downloading a file from a legitimate streaming platform onto your own devices — is a regular occurrence in Canada. These practices unfairly devalue U.S. creative content and keep our artists from being fairly compensated for their work.
 
Similarly, unfair and often discriminatory medicine price controls in countries like Canada, Japan, Korea and the United Kingdom undervalue U.S. biopharmaceuticals. These practices make it difficult for U.S. drug companies to break into foreign markets, sell new medicines at fair market prices and recoup R&D investments to develop new cures.
 
Many countries also ban or place unreasonable limits on U.S. imports of agriculture and livestock products. The United Kingdom doesn’t allow the import of certain U.S. poultry products. Brazil flat out bans the import of American “fresh, frozen, and further processed pork products.”
 
Congress has an essential role to play in stopping these trade violations. After all, it funds the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative — which negotiates and enforces trade treaties on our country’s behalf — and gives the final go-ahead to trade agreements. And, consistent with its constitutional authority to “regulate commerce with foreign nations,” lawmakers already have demanded robust U.S. trade negotiating objectives through the 2015 Trade Promotion Authority law. Now, Congress and the administration need to work together to advance their goals and eliminate onerous trade obstacles once and for all.
 
Policymakers can start by enforcing our trade deals, like the U.S.- Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). Since signing the deal in 2018, Korea has continued to undervalue American intellectual property, particularly when it comes to medicines. The United States should hold Korean officials accountable and demand that they “appropriately recognize the value of ... patented pharmaceutical product[s],” like they promised.
 
Members also have a duty to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, such as the phase two U.S.-Japan talks. During phase one discussions — which produced a limited treaty earlier this year — U.S. trade officials failed to negotiate robust protections for U.S. intellectual property. Lawmakers can wield their trade authority to ensure that American negotiators don’t make the same mistake during their second go-around.
 
The impending U.S.-U.K. trade agreement provides Congress with yet another opportunity. The United Kingdom routinely devalues U.S. pharmaceuticals and impedes U.S. agricultural exports. Addressing these trade barriers would create American jobs and set a good precedent for all other future trade deals.

In the next legislative session, lawmakers will inevitably find international trade negotiations on their dockets. Driving a hard bargain is the only way to establish a fair playing field for American companies and ensure a strong economic recovery.
 
Erik Paulsen represented Minnesota in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2009 to 2019.
 
This article originally appeared in The Detroit News on November 12, 2020. The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.
This e-newsletter is produced by Total Spectrum/SGA and Total Spectrum Georgia. The views expressed herein may include subjective commentary and analysis that are the views of the editors and authors alone. Information in this e-newsletter is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but that cannot be guaranteed as independently investigated or verified. Information in this e-newsletter is not an endorsement, advertisement, recommendation, or any type of advice, political, legal, financial, or otherwise. With questions about the content of this e-newsletter, please contact Total Spectrum Georgia.