March 20, 2020 -- Brighter Days Ahead
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We all feel a sense of despair as social interaction is limited by the coronavirus pandemic, but the sun is still rising in the east and warmer weather isn't far off. This sunrise with a waning crescent moon was taken from the Charbonneau weather station northwest of Alexander.
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North Dakota in a State of Lockdown
School Closing Extended Indefinitely
Seven New Virus Cases, Rural Areas Hit
No Public Gatherings Until Further Notice
With the announcement that several new cases of the viral disease COVID-19 were attributable to "community spread," Gov. Doug Burgum issued an executive order yesterday instructing restaurants, bars, breweries, cafés and similar on-site dining establishments to close to on-sale/on-site patrons.
The governor's order also restricts public access to state facilities including the Capitol, and directed state agencies to transition non-essential staff members to remote, in-home work sites at least through April 6.
North Dakota now has 26 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus which originated in Wuhan, China. State officials confirmed 12 new cases yesterday, and Gov. Burgum announced seven more this afternoon. Of the 19 total new cases, 12 are in Burleigh County, four in Morton County, and one each in Ward, Pierce and Ramsey Counties.Two people with COVID-19 are now hospitalized.
Burgum said the emergence of the virus in Pierce County, the county seat of which is Rugby, shows the virus has the potential to spread to all parts of the state.
Click
here to listen to Burgum's comments.
Gov. Burgum, along with State Superintendent Kirsten Baesler, have provided updated guidance to K-12 school districts to develop alternative learning plans following the decision Sunday that schools close to slow the spread of the deadly virus. Schools have been instructed to plan for educating students remotely in the event of an extended COVID-19 pandemic. Click
here to see the Department of Public Instruction's COVID-19 guidance page.
Burgum said he will waive all instructional hours for the period from March 23-March 31, meaning schools do not have to reschedule that time. Burgum also waived instructional hours this week, for a total of 12 days waived. The waivers ensure that districts will be able to pay teachers and hourly employees such as teaching assistants, bus drivers, custodians, food service and other staff through the closure. Schools will remain closed to students until further notice, with access for essential staff only.
Governor Burgum along with the state Department of Health are providing daily media briefings via the
DOH Facebook page. The briefings are held at 4:00 p.m. and will continue through the weekend.
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Legislative Interim Work Put on Hold
If legislative interim meetings scheduled in April and May haven't already been cancelled, it's likely they will be due to "social distancing" guidelines to prevent further spread of the deadly coronavirus.
During a meeting of the Legislative Management Committee yesterday in the Senate Chamber, House Majority Leader Chet Pollert and Senate Majority Leader Rich Wardner advised committee chairs not to hold meetings until June unless they felt they had to meet earlier. Only a handful of the committee's 17 members attended yesterday's meeting in person with most opting to participate via conference call. Those in attendance were scattered throughout the chamber and visitors and lobbyists were instructed to sit in the balcony. A livestream of the meeting was available to the public on the legislative website.
A glance at the legislature's online
Events Calendar shows that scheduled meetings of the interim Judiciary and Water Topics Committees previously planned for next week have been cancelled, as have most of the meetings in the month of April.
Rep. Pollert said legislative leaders from both Republican and Democrat parties met with Governor Burgum and other state officials to discuss how the state is dealing with the global COVID-19 pandemic. He said legislators will have daily conference calls with the governor's office to receive updates on dynamics of the rapidly changing situation.
"We should be unified in this as far as what's going on right now," Pollert said. "This really transcends political issues as far as I'm concerned."
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"The Bottom Has Just Dropped Out"
Oil Prices in Freefall due to Saudi Price War
Crude oil prices tumbled to just over $20/barrel this week before temporarily recovering to the mid-20s range in the wake of an oil price war launched by the government of Saudi Arabia. The price drop was magnified by plummeting global demand related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In his monthly news conference, Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources, said production numbers for the month of January show a slight drop in North Dakota output, which was partly weather-related but also reflected growing pessimism due to a drop in Chinese demand as the deadly virus began to take its toll on the country's economy. Production averaged 1.43 million barrels per day in January, down nearly 50,000 bbl/day from the December figure.
Natural gas production also declined slightly during the month, averaging 3.014 billion cubic feet per day, down from December's 3.061 Bcf/day. The gas capture rate stood at 85 percent for the month, still below the state target of 88 percent.
Helms said Saudi Arabia launched the price war after a breakdown in negotiations with Russia.
Click
here to listen to Helms' comments.
Helms said it's impossible to predict how long the low-price environment will go on, but said North Dakota producers have already responded by announcing plans to reduce drilling activity.
Click
here to listen to Helms' comments.
Although drilling and completion activity will be pared back, Helms doesn't expect to see a steep drop in production anytime soon. He said it would take several years of low prices before the state's production would fall back below 1 million barrels per day. However, with crude prices considerably below the state's forecast of $48.50 per barrel, it will have a significant impact on the state's oil tax revenue. Discussions have occurred with the state's financial consultants, but Helms said it's too early to predict how much of a hit the state can expect.
Click
here to listen to Helms' comments.
Helms said all oil industry job offers are off the table, and he expects there will be employment losses in the drilling and completions sector. But he said jobs in gas processing and saltwater disposal operations will remain steady or even continue to grow slightly.
Click
here to read Helms' Director's Cut. Click
here for a KXMB-TV story about industry layoffs.
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State Budget Forecast Adjustments Coming
Revenue in Good Shape Now, but Shortfall Inevitable
The good news about the state of North Dakota's revenue picture is that forecast tax collections have been tracking slightly higher than expected, but the bad news is a significant drop is coming due to lower oil prices and a drop in sales tax revenue because of reduced economic activity.
In a presentation this week to the legislature's Budget Section, OMB Director Joe Morrissette said the state has a little cushion, but it's unlikely it will be enough to cover the coming downturn.
Click
here to listen to Morrissette's comments.
Morrissette said revenue coming in this month will allow the state to fill its Budget Stabilization Fund, the state's "rainy day account." The fund will contain $726 million, its statutory cap which represents 15 percent of general funding spending.
As to the coming downturn in revenue due to the drop in oil prices and the economic damage from the ongoing pandemic, Morrissette said the budget office halted its forecasting process. He said predictions are impossible to make because the situation is changing so quickly.
Click
here to listen to Morrissette's comments.
Click
here to see Morrissette's slide presentation.
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McLean County Zoning Hearing to be Held as Scheduled, Tailgate Party Cancelled
A March 26 hearing in Underwood on proposed revisions to McLean County's zoning ordinances for transmission lines and power plants will go on as scheduled, but a group called Faces of North Dakota Coal has cancelled plans for a tailgating party that was to precede it.
McLean County State's Attorney Ladd Erickson said the group called off the gathering in response to guidance on social distancing to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Erickson said the zoning hearing will still be held and the public will be permitted to attend, but social distancing will be practiced and hand sanitizer will be provided at the meeting. He said the county wants to hear legitimate input about the proposed zoning changes, and said plans are in the works to make the hearing available to the public via the internet.
The proposed
zoning amendments are a response to a recent announcement that Great River Energy will consider shutting down one or both units at Coal Creek Station, located just south of Underwood. The zoning proposal drafted by Erickson includes a background statement which indicates that "the proposed zoning amendments are intended to ensure the rich history of environmentally sound electrical generation in McLean County and has legal siting rules to protect our citizen's 'general prosperity' and 'public welfare.'" The
background document also includes a declaration prepared by Erickson that was submitted in support of the State of North Dakota's lawsuit that resulted in the US Supreme Court's stay of the Obama administration's Clean Power Plan.
On its
Facebook page, the Faces of North Dakota Coal group indicated that 550 people had messaged that they planned to attend the tailgate party. The group will stream the hearing via Facebook Live.
Click
here to read the zoning amendment.
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Most County Courthouses Closed to Public
To reduce the risk of spreading the deadly coronavirus, most North Dakota counties have cut off or restricted access to their county courthouse.
Some counties are continuing to hold court hearings as scheduled, but in most instances the public will be required to schedule an appoint to meet with county personnel.
The North Dakota Court System has set up a web page with ongoing updates on the status of county courthouse access. Click
here to see the site.
The North Dakota Association of Counties and the ND League of Cities have both established COVID-19 resource pages for their members. Click
here for the NDACo site, and
here for the NDLC site.
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Atty General Stresses Importance of Open Meetings
Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem issued guidance this week to public entities in response to questions about open meeting requirements during the current coronavirus crisis.
Stenehjem said North Dakota's open meetings law recognizes that emergency matters arise during crisis situations that may require a government entity to hold meetings on short notice. That is why there is no minimum advance notice requirement in the law, he said. Rather, as soon as a public entity decides to hold a meeting, it must post a notice and agenda. If it's a special meeting, the entity must also notify the official newspaper.
“Emergency situations such as this call for more transparency, not less, regarding what public officials are doing to protect the public,” Stenehjem said. “If a regular or special meeting is necessary, the public entity may need to be creative to comply with public health recommendations while still preserving the public’s right to access the meeting, such as livestreaming, video conferencing, or use of other technology.”
Click
here to review guidance on Open Records and Meetings on the Attorney General’s website.
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Kenmare Voters Reject School Bond Issue
Timing of Election Probably Swayed Voters
A majority of patrons in the Kenmare School District voted to approve a plan to expand the district's school facilities, but fell short of the 60 percent required to approve the bond issue.
Unofficial totals show 427 votes, or 52 percent, in favor of the $13.9 million project, and 391, or 48 percent, against. The plan would have constructed new elementary classrooms, flexible learning spaces, a new STEM center, a new gymnasium and locker rooms, and provided improvements to school safety and security.
"I think the results were dependent on the agricultural economy this year and the COVID-19 pandemic," said Kenmare Superintendent Tim Godfrey. "We felt we had a huge amount of support going into the special election but with the quick onslaught of infections, I believe many were deterred considering the national economy was on a downward spin and the sense of uncertainty for the future."
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2020 WBPC Rescheduled to Fall
The 2020 Williston Basin Petroleum Conference has been rescheduled for September 1-3.
This conference had been scheduled May 19-21 at the Bismarck Event Center. Like past events, at least 2,500 people and 300 exhibitors were expected. Featured speaker was to be Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette.
The North Dakota Petroleum Council, which organizes the event, said the event was moved to September due to recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control related to large events and mass gatherings during the coronavirus pandemic.
“We are still very excited to host the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference later this year,” Council President Ron Ness said. “We are committed to protecting the health and safety of our attendees, speakers and exhibitors, and will continue to monitor the situation and follow official guidance as we move forward with this new date.”
Click
here for more information about the 2020 Williston Basin Petroleum Conference.
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Lignite Energy Council Cancels Annual Meeting
In yet another schedule change due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Lignite Energy Council announced this week it has cancelled its Annual Meeting scheduled for April 15-16.
“We feel that it’s prudent to follow the CDC guidelines. Keeping our members healthy is of paramount concern,” said Jason Bohrer, president of the Lignite Energy Council.
As an alternative to the annual meeting, Bohrer said the LEC will extend its fall meeting to two days – September 30 and October 1. The LEC plans to provide speakers addressing many of the topics that would have been covered in April.
Members who had already submitted registrations, sponsorships or exhibitor fees will have their money refunded via the method payments were made when possible. If a credit card expired or payment was made more than two months ago, a check will need to be issued.
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COVID-19 Resources for Business
ND Chamber Facilitating Dialogue
The ND Department of Commerce has set up a new web site to provide resources to businesses and employers affected by the coronavirus, and the Greater North Dakota Chamber is conducting business briefing conference calls for its members to discuss consequences of the current lockdown and strategies moving forward.
Topics and resources relating to finance, labor law, insurance, tax and workplace safety are consolidated on the Commerce Department's page. The department has also temporarily redirected all human and financial resources to support North Dakota businesses through the pandemic. It includes assigning researchers to interpret draft federal regulations; providing personal assistance in accessing and navigating resources; and identifying financial resources to support businesses.
GNDC is making its conference call information available to all businesses and citizens. The event
agenda and hour-long
recording of this week's call are available online. The chamber is planning additional conference calls to assist businesses as further developments occur. GNDC will conduct a call at 11:00 a.m. next Thursday, March 26, that will focus on Emergency Business Finance. Each week a new topic area and available information will be covered. Click
here for more details.
Click
here to see the Commerce Department's COVID-19 Business and Employer Resources page.
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Write it Down on Your Calendar!
WDEA 2020 Annual Meeting
Get this date on your calendar! The Annual Meeting of the Western Dakota Energy Association will be held:
October 7-8, 2020
The Grand Williston Hotel & Conference Center
Williston, ND
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Quick Connect
- ND weighs plan to keep some Bakken crude off market -- S&P Global
- Low oil prices 'extremely brutal' for ND's shale oil industry -- Bismarck Tribune
- ND crude oil production unlikely to fall below 1 million barrels per day -- Williston Herald
- Gas prices around $2 a gallon could be trouble for North Dakota in long run -- Fargo Forum
- North Dakota oil and gas companies look at Bakken-wide approach to ESG -- Williston Herald
- Senator Cramer calls on President Trump to embargo Russia, OPEC crude -- OilPrice.com
- Hess to cut rigs to one amid $800M cuts in response to pandemic, price war -- Williston Herald
- Liberty joins companies implementing Bakken cost-cutting measures -- Williston Herald
- Phishing scams, fake charities: Experts say coronavirus scams are coming -- KFYR-TV
- Minot's Norsk Hostfest canceled for this year, to resume in 2021 -- Minot Daily News
- North Dakota Republican Party cancels state convention set for Bismarck -- Bismarck Tribune
- Local business owners say new economic stimulus plans would be helpful -- Bismarck Tribune
- Lifeline Program available to help North Dakotans with phone, internet costs -- Williston Herald
- Xcel Energy suspends residential service disconnections with COVID-19 threat -- KXMB-TV
- ND legislative leaders to review livestreaming before potentially expanding -- Bismarck Tribune
- U.S. and Canada to close border to 'non-essential traffic' amid coronavirus -- The Hill
- DOE announces plan to purchase oil for reserve to relieve energy industry -- Energy.gov
- Dem candidate Biden doubles down on plan to ban fracking on public lands -- Energy In Depth
- OPEC shift for market share will cause global inventory increases and lower prices -- EIA
- Few U.S. shale firms can withstand a prolonged OPEC-induced oil price war -- Reuters
- Analysts: Low prices hit fragile shale sector, 1 million bbl/day may soon be lost -- S&P Global
- As total U.S. crude oil imports have fallen, imports from Canada have increased -- EIA
- Politics continues to complicate the nation's nuclear waste disposal dilemma -- Inside Sources
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Factoid of the Week
The novel coronavirus is also known as COVID-19, which is an abbreviation. COVID stands for corona virus disease. The ‘19’ represents the year, 2019, in which the disease was first observed.
The virus was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China.
COVID-19 is a new disease, caused by a novel (new) coronavirus that has not been previously seen in humans.
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March 24
Bismarck
March 25
Bismarck
March 26
Bismarck
March 26
Underwood
April 1
Bismarck
April 1
Bismarck
April 2
Bismarck
April 9
Bismarck
April 21-23
Four Bears - New Town
April 28-30
Watford City
May 19
Bismarck
June 8-11
Bismarck
September 1-3
Bismarck
September 30 - October 1
Bismarck
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Oil prices and rig count
March 20, 2020
WTI Crude: $22.43
Brent Crude: $26.98
Natural Gas: $1.58
North Dakota Active Rigs: 51 (down 4)
3/20/
2019
-- 66 rigs
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Geoff Simon
Editor/Executive Director
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