National Newsletter for the
Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science
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IN THIS ISSUE
- Hello from Hanne
- Life-Saving Forecasts
- Improving Hurricane "Threat" Predictors
- Ongoing Work of C&GC Fellow
- Science in Color
- NASA Heliophysics Summer School
- New Staff
- Open Sky and Your Publications
- Who Is CPAESS?
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November 2020
This is our newsletter so if you have a cool picture, a suggestion, or a question, please send it!
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Hello Everyone!
As we head into the holiday season I hope this finds you well and happy. I want you to know that I see all of your efforts to protect lives across the globe, and how hard you are working in spite of the difficulties imposed upon us by the pandemic. I'm delighted that we have been able to delve into some of this work in this issue. Please know that you have my sincere appreciation.
There are several ongoing processes here at UCAR that are impactful to you all. First of all, if you will be presenting at AGU through posters, oral presentations, or Town Halls please go to this CPAESS Presentations document and add your presentation information. Additionally, UCAR has open enrollment occurring right now. I was delighted to see many of you at our informational meetings and hope you were able to get any of your questions answered. UCAR has also given us each an extra day off as a "wellness day" - which is wonderful. There is also ongoing goal settings for next year's performance evaluations happening. If you have questions about any of these items please reach out to your UCAR supervisors for help. As always I am only an email away.
Our work on proposals is ongoing as we continue to expand our support of the Earth system science community. Please know how impressed I am with the work that is being done across our CPAESS program. I truly appreciate all of your efforts. Please stay safe, and I hope you all have the chance to enjoy a bit of relaxation during the holidays. A Happy Thanksgiving to you all.
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CPAESS scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Africa Desk, part of the National Weather Service (NWS), are saving lives every day by transforming weather forecasting into life-protecting tools against climate extremes. Equipped with a variety of tools and training programs, this team is engaging meteorological offices and health services to forewarn populations on likely weather events and the negative health impacts they might bring.
The National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a Division of the NOAA's National Weather Service, has nine different national centers, including CPC, which produce global forecasts. CPC’s International Desks, including the African Desk, focus on monitoring and forecasting weather systems in various parts of the world. While NWS is primarily focused on the United States, the International Desks support various international efforts. The Africa Desk was established as the United States had an increasing need for weather information in Africa, particularly as it relates to humanitarian help. USAID needed real-time forecasting to inform their decision-making concerning the delivery and distribution of food and safe drinking water. With this foundation of real-time weather forecasting, the Africa Desk has continued to expand their services to increase their impact and usefulness to not only USAID, but also citizens throughout Africa.
The Africa Desk has created real-time weather forecasting tools to assist decision makers concerning food security, water resource management, and agriculture. Whether a flood or drought is forecast could dramatically change what crops are being planted, which areas might need mosquito mitigation, and where heat might have bigger impacts on the health of vulnerable populations. This real-time information is a powerful tool in protecting the health and well-being of millions of people.
The African Desk was established at CPC in 1994 as part of the U.S. contributions to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Voluntary Cooperation Program (VCP). The objective is to help build capacity in climate predictions, monitoring, and assessments at African meteorological institutions. The African Desk was expanded in 2006 to include weather in support of the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) for Africa. The African Desk is fully integrated with CPC International projects including the support to the USAID Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET) and the Disaster Risk Reduction Program of the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)(DRR), and the NOAA-USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF).
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Top - Left to right: Sarah Suzanne Niarum Diouf, Pierre-Honore Kamsu Tamo, Hanne Mauriello, and Ibrahima Diouf at CPAESS Staff meeting in Washington, D.C.
Bottom Left - Left to right: Wassila Thiaw of NOAA and leader of this team, and Endalkachew (Endalk) Bekele Biratu; and Bottom Right: Malasala Murali Nageswararao Rao at work.
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The NCEP Africa Desk consists of 10 people under the direction of NOAA’s Wasilla Thiaw. Five of these team members are CPAESS | UCAR employees and include Endalkachew (Endalk) Bekele Biratu, Associate Scientist; Sarah Suzanne Niarum Diouf, Associate Scientist; Ibrahima Diouf, Associate Scientist; Pierre-Honore Kamsu Tamo, Associate Scientist; and Malasala Murali Nageswararao Rao, Visiting Scientist. CPAESS scientists move the lofty goals of the organization forward in a variety of ways.
In addition to the weather forecasting work, part of this team’s work is training meteorologists from Africa. The WMO has enlisted this team to train meteorologists from the 54 countries in Africa on how to utilize these forecasting tools. This is done through appointments to a residency training program lasting four months which occurs in NOAA offices.
Endalk focuses on training meteorologists on the medium-range forecasting tools of one to two weeks. Pierre focuses on helping fellow meteorologists understand the monthly and seasonal forecasting tools. In addition, trainees are educated on tools to monitor the evolution of climates in their area. By tracking the precipitation and temperature, better model outputs can be created even within the season helping people in the region understand the likelihood of droughts or floods to improve or to worsen.
The WMO divides up the world into six regions for the purpose of forecasting. Africa is Region 1 and Region 4 includes the United States, Canada, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean Islands. Sarah works to create the real-time forecasting tools that this team has created for Africa to assist meteorologists in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean Islands. Her work is ensuring these same meteorological tools are available for the Americas.
The profoundly helpful impact of this information has led this team to expand their reach and develop capacity for health decision-making connected to climate variability. NWS funded workshops in Africa to facilitate training on how these forecast tools could be utilized to predict risks for infectious diseases outbreaks such as malaria and heat related illnesses. By enabling the health community to understand heatwave forecasting, health services can map out communities where heat related illnesses are likely to become problematic for vulnerable communities and prepare to assist them. CPAESS scientists Murali, Sarah, and Endalk work on these heatwave forecasts that are so useful to the health community.
Forecasting areas which are likely to see an increase in heat-related illnesses, like cardiovascular and respiratory issues, is tremendously useful in preventing health problems. This team’s work also includes experimental predictions of vector borne diseases in collaboration with the health sector. Ibrahima’s work connects weather forecasting to malaria, which is caused by mosquitoes and is a major health concern. He uses models that are sensitive to precipitation, humidity, and temperature and connects them to malaria incidents. Additionally, Ibrahima relates this to statistical models of ocean temperatures because there is limited availability of epidemiological data. In doing this he can relate malaria incidences with climate variability. Malaria can be controlled by medication, insecticides, and netting. With the help of forecasting, malaria cases can be actively prevented.
This team hopes to expand their work with the health sector as much more can be done in the mitigation of heat-related diseases. They have been working with the Minister of Health in Senegal to create a heat and health early warning system with the Senegalese Meteorological Service. The World Health Organization (WHO) is interested in working with them to expand this type of work to the Americas.
Not only is this team’s work critical in USAID’s food security investment planning, but it has a tremendous positive impact on millions and millions of lives. We are extremely proud of this team’s research, and their innovative and interdisciplinary approach to serving humanity. Our sincerest thanks to you all.
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Improving Hurricane "Threat" Predictors |
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CPAESS has numerous scientists working at the National Hurricane Center's Storm Surge Unit. One of them is Ethan Gibney who discussed his recent publication Surface pressure a more skillful predictor of normalized hurricane damage than maximum sustained wind with us and how this research impacts hurricane prediction. "Essentially, we argue that mean sea level pressure (MSLP) is a better predictor of damage from hurricanes than maximum sustained winds (Vmax). We found this to be especially true for the U.S. East coast. Currently winds are the primary metric used by forecasters to communicate the 'threat' posed by storms to the public via the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Our main hope with the research I think was to make a case to NHC forecasters to consider a storm's MSLP and perhaps weigh it more heavily than Vmax when communicating potential impacts to affected areas." |
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To illustrate this point Ethan shared a comparison between Hurricanes Katrina and Charley. Using the typical maximum sustained winds Charley should have been more destructive, but as we all know Katrina was much more so. "While Katrina was officially classified as a Category 3 at landfall, Charley was a 4. Katrina had a much lower landfall pressure than Charley, was much larger and caused a much larger and catastrophic storm surge." According to this research, based on MSLP, Katrina would've been classified as a Category 5. "While Katrina took the lives of approximately 1,836 in the U.S., Charley killed 15." In like manner "while Charley caused $22B in damage, Katrina was responsible for $170B (CPI-adjusted to 2020 USD)." So this is a poignant comparison between the typical Vmax measurement and the MSLP measurement as a predictor of hurricane damage.
We understand that a couple of more articles are in the process of being published now and are so grateful for the continued efforts of Ethan and his colleagues. Noting new predictive variables is critical for our models to improve, and for lives and property to be protected. Thank you for your ongoing efforts to keep us safe. We truly appreciate them!
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Ongoing Work of C&GC Fellow |
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Our NOAA Climate & Global Change fellows continue to make their mark in the science world. Recently www.climate.gov interviewed Class of 21's Emily Fischer, a fellow from 2011-2013. The entirety of this great interview by NOAA can be found here, but here is what she had to say about her postdoctoral experience.
"What did you study for your NOAA postdoc (2011-2013)? What role did that postdoc experience play in advancing your career?
I learned how to use the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model to understand the precursors to peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN). PAN is a compound formed in the atmospheric oxidation of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and it serves as a thermally unstable reservoir for nitrogen oxide radicals (NOx = NO + NO2), permitting NOx to impact the global distribution of ozone and OH.
This experience was fundamental to advancing my career. The mentoring at Harvard was exceptional, and I left with an entirely new toolkit.
While at Harvard, I worked on a widely used global chemical transport model. This model is commonly used to understand air quality problems, identify the impact of different classes of air pollutants, and investigate the composition of the remote atmosphere. I specifically worked on the representation of PAN in in the model. My work involved using recent observations from surface sites (including my own), aircraft, and satellites to identify problems in the model and potential missing emissions or chemical processes."
Emily is currently an associate professor at Colorado State University's Atmospheric Science department teaching and researching. Recently she's been a "lead investigator on a National Science Foundation-funded initiative aimed at recruiting more women to the geosciences." We appreciate your efforts to make Earth system science more inclusive, along with your continued research in climate science.
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NHC Director Ken Graham using a new visualization interface created by William Booth during a national media briefing. |
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At the National Hurricane Center (NHC) the visualization system that shows observed water levels (storm surge) during landfalling hurricanes needed a little improvement. So CPAESS scientist William Booth went to work to make this happen.
“William Booth created a visualization webpage to illustrate a big picture view of real-time National Ocean Service’s (NOS) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) station observations relevant to landfalling hurricanes. NWS National Hurricane Center forecasters find this tool especially useful during operations because it automatically ‘tiles’ all affected stations into a simple-to-use interface displaying tide predictions, observations, and surge data referenced to Mean Higher High Water; the best possible approximation of the threshold at which inundation can begin to occur. Using NOS CO-OPS API data and Vega Visualization Grammar, William wrote python scripts to obtain and organize the data into a graphic plotting library, then displayed the graphics on a streamlined webpage. The visualization library with its many options proved to be his most difficult challenge. William wanted to be sure the web page configures a display that is efficient, repeatable, and adaptable to ensure automation for the duration of a storm.” NOAA: Alexandria Andonian
The initiative that William took in improving the visuals to better enable a solid understanding of what is going on during hurricane is the sort of work that helps translate science. His leadership and dedication to the NOAA mission, and in helping us all understand relevant hurricane and storm science is greatly appreciated.
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NASA Heliophysics Summer School |
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We are pleased to announce the 2021 call for applications for NASA's Living With A Star Heliophysics Summer School program. The program will take place from June 15-22, 2021. It will focus on the physics of connections between the Sun, the heliosphere, the magnetospheres, and the upper atmospheres of the planets, and their implications for Earth and space climate. This coming summer's theme is Long-Term Solar Activity: Earth and Space Climate.
The Summer School has three principal aims: to deepen the appreciation of the basic science of heliophysics for a select group of students, as faculty take them through highly interactive seminars and hands-on working groups; to expand the textbook series to include labs, problem sets and background material, from which heliophysics may be taught at universities worldwide; and to provide a professional development opportunity for teachers to incorporate heliophysics and astrophysics examples into physics, astronomy and earth science courses. The application DEADLINE is JANUARY 22, 2021. For more information go here!
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CPAESS is pleased to welcome these new employees. We are delighted to have you on board.
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Marc Bessho, Sr. Logistics Analyst, United States Geological Survey (USGS)
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Chad Weisshaar, Software Engineer/Programmer, United States Geological Survey (USGS)
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Isabel McCoy, Postdoctoral Fellow, NOAA Climate and Global Change (C&GC) Postdoctoral Fellowship Program
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Open Sky and Your Publications |
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Part of your employment expectations is listing your publications in OpenSky on the UCAR/NCAR website. Please make sure you list all your publications there. If you haven't yet, you can list them now and catch up.
The purpose of this digital archive is to provide free and open access to the scientific output and other intellectual resources created at NCAR/UCAR for the advancement of the atmospheric and related sciences.
In the Acknowledgements section scientists note the agency and grant number that supported their research. Please go to our CPAESS "For Staff" Information page and click on the Citing Language and Information tab. Your CIT login is the same as your WorkDay login info. If you have any questions please let us know. Thanks very much!
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Recent Publications
Barnes, Will, Mark Cheung, Monica Bobra, Paul Boerner, Georgios Chintzoglou, Drew Leonard, Stuart Mumford, Nicholas Padmanabhan, Albert Shih, Nina Shirman, David Stansby, Paul Wright, 2020: aiapy: A Python package for analyzing solar EUV image data from AIA. Journal of Open Source Software, OpenSky.
Wang, Bin, Hiroyuki Murakami, 2020: Dynamic genesis potential index for diagnosing present-day and future global tropical cyclone genesis. Environmental Research Letters, OpenSky.
Liu, Terry Z., Xin An, Hui Zhang, Drew Turner, 2020: Magnetospheric multiscale observations of foreshock transients at their very early stage. The Astrophysical Journal, OpenSky.
Datar, Gauri, Geeta Vichare, C. Selvaraj, Ankush Bhaskar, Anil Raghav, 2020: Causes of the diurnal variation observed in gamma-ray spectrum using NaI (Tl) detector. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, OpenSky.
Bakhtyar, R., K. Maitaria, P. Velissariou, B. Trimble, H. Mashriqui, Saeed Moghimi, A. Abdolali, A. J. Van der Westhuysen, Z. Ma, E. P. Clark, T. Flowers, 2020: A new 1D/2D coupled modeling approach for a riverine‐estuarine system under storm events: Application to Delaware river basin. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, OpenSky.
An, Xin, Terry Z. Liu, Jacob Bortnik, Adnane Osmane, Vassilis Angelopoulos, 2020: Formation of foreshock transients and associated secondary shocks. The Astrophysical Journal, OpenSky.
Rouppe van der Voort, L. H. M., B. De Pontieu, M. Carlsson, J. de la Cruz Rodríguez, S. Bose, Georgios Chintzoglou, A. Drews, C. Froment, M. Gošić, D. R. Graham, V. H. Hansteen, V. M. J. Henriques, S. Jafarzadeh, J. Joshi, L. Kleint, P. Kohutova, T. Leifsen, J. Martínez-Sykora, D. Nóbrega-Siverio, A. Ortiz, T. M. D. Pereira, A. Popovas, C. Quintero Noda, A. Sainz Dalda, G. B. Scharmer, D. Schmit, E. Scullion, H. Skogsrud, M. Szydlarski, R. Timmons, G. J. M. Vissers, M. M. Woods, P. Zacharias, 2020: High-resolution observations of the solar photosphere, chromosphere, and transition region. Astronomy & Astrophysics, OpenSky.
Shi, Xiaofei, Terry Z. Liu, Vassilis Angelopoulos, Xiao‐Jia Zhang, 2020: Whistler mode waves in the compressional boundary of foreshock transients. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, OpenSky.
He, Xinsheng, Wenyu Huang, Zifan Yang, Jonathon S. Wright, Bin Wang, Zuowei Xie, Tianpei Qiu, Wenhao Dong, Hui Lu, Xiang Li, Jie Liao, 2020: Favorable circulation patterns and moisture sources for wintertime extreme precipitation events over the Balkhash‐Junggar region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, OpenSky.
Ma, Zaizhong, Bin Liu, Avichal Mehra, Ali Abdolali, Andre van der Westhuysen, Saeed Moghimi, Sergey Vinogradov, Zhan Zhang, Lin Zhu, Keqin Wu, Roshan Shrestha, Anil Kumar, Vijay Tallapragada, Nicole Kurkowski, 2020: Investigating the impact of high-resolution land-sea masks on hurricane forecasts in HWRF. Atmosphere, OpenSky.
Praskievicz, Sarah, Shawn Carter, Juzer Dhondia, Michael Follum, 2020: Flood-inundation modeling in an operational context: Sensitivity to topographic resolution and Manning's n. Journal of Hydroinformatics, OpenSky.
Congrats to all of our publishers for your impactful research!
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Even people employed by CPAESS ask about the breadth and depth of the programs and opportunities we provide. Here is a super brief primer. CPAESS is a part of the UCAR/NCAR family. Specifically, we are within UCAR’s Community Programs (UCP). CPAESS is the largest of UCAR's Community Programs.
CPAESS’ provides early career opportunities including employment at federal labs across the nation. We also host multi-agency programs and have partnerships with federal agencies –take a peek to get an idea of some of them listed here. CPAESS provides postdoctoral and educational programs. Lastly, we convene scientific communities to help promulgate scientific information and foster collaboration across the earth system science community. Here is a list of our upcoming events.
CPAESS has approximately 125 employees, over 100 of which are spread across the United States as seen on the map below. If you go here you can click on a location and you'll see staff grouped by program work. Many of our co-workers are in federal labs. Our staff's skill sets are impressively diverse. We appreciate you and your talents being a part of the CPAESS family.
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