Dear Florida Climate Center Friends, |
We are delighted to present you with the Fall 2021 edition of our quarterly newsletter. In this newsletter, you'll find our recent monthly climate summaries; the winter outlook; a recap of the 2021 hurricane season; and an update on events, news, and activities we've been engaged in these past few months. If you have any questions, please send us an e-mail at climate@coaps.fsu.edu.
Thanks,
The Staff of the Florida Climate Center
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Monthly Climate Summaries for Florida |
The Florida Climate Center's August, September, and October Climate Summaries for Florida are available, as well as previous monthly summaries. These summaries provide an analysis of temperature and precipitation patterns during the months of August through October across the state, along with data on hazardous weather, drought, and daily records tied or broken each month.
In August, average temperatures were near or above normal across much of Florida. Departures from normal ranged from -0.8 ̊F in Key West to +2.2 ̊F in Orlando. Many daily high maximum and high minimum records were set throughout the month. In September, average temperatures remained near normal across the state. Monthly departures ranged from -1.3 ̊F in Key West to +1.7 ̊F in Orlando. October was warm, as average temperatures were above normal across the state, ranging from +0.6 ̊F in Key West and Jacksonville to +3.3 ̊F in Orlando.
The figures below are graphical depictions of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (in inches) for August, September, and October (courtesy of the National Weather Service). Rainfall during the past few months has been mixed, with above normal rainfall in the Panhandle and parts of the Peninsula, but much of southern Florida has been below normal.
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La Niña Conditions Return and Influence the 2021-2022 Winter Outlook |
La Niña conditions, the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, returned to the tropical Pacific Ocean in October, after having dissipated in April 2021. This La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter with an 87% chance from December 2021 through February 2022. It is expected to last through early spring 2022.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has issued the three-month outlook for temperatures, precipitation, and drought (see maps below) for the November 2021 through January 2022 period. With the return of La Niña conditions, Florida and the Southeast U.S. are most likely to be warmer-than-average (~50-60%) during the winter. Drier-than-average conditions are favored for Florida (40-50% probability). Drought development is favored during this same period across the southern half of the state.
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Recap of the 2021 Hurricane Season |
The end of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is around the corner, officially ending November 30th. The months of October and November have been quiet, but the 2021 season has been very active with above-average activity, as anticipated. NOAA's hurricane season outlook called for 13-20 named storms, with 6-10 of those being hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. Colorado State University's official forecast called for 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. To date, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season has had 21 named storms, with 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (3 of which impacted land). Florida was directly impacted by several of these storms, including Hurricane Elsa and Tropical Storms Claudette, Fred, and Mindy.
Tropical Storm Claudette developed over the Gulf of Mexico in June and became a tropical storm as it moved ashore over southeastern Louisiana on June 19. The storm produced gusty winds in parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida, as well as several tornadoes.
Hurricane Elsa became the earliest fifth named storm on record in the Atlantic Basin and became a hurricane on July 2. Elsa affected the Florida Keys with wind gusts, heavy rain and flooding. It then made landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Steinhatchee on July 7 as a tropical storm, generating wind gusts up to 71 mph and a storm surge of 2.7 feet near Cedar Key.
On August 16, Tropical Storm Fred made landfall near Cape San Blas, Florida in the Panhandle with winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 994 mb. The storm weakened quickly as it moved north-northeastwards up the Atlantic Coast.
Tropical Storm Mindy made landfall on September 9 at St. Vincent Island, Florida near Apalachicola, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It produced heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
Hurricane Ida was the most powerful storm of the season to make landfall, though it did not impact Florida. The storm made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana as a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 930 mb. It tied with Hurricane Laura and the 1856 Last Island Hurricane as the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in Louisiana.
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Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact Hosts Implementation Workshop on Heat
On November 8th, State Climatologist David Zierden gave a presentation at the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact workshop on extreme heat. David discussed recent trends in temperatures and extreme heat across the U.S. and Southeast Florida. The purpose of this workshop was to increase understanding of trends in extreme heat and the risks and impacts of extreme heat across the Southeast Florida region, as well as to increase coordination and collaboration for developing strategies for adapting to and managing future risk.
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The Florida Climate Center Participated in Climate Indicator Workshop for East Central Florida
On November 3rd, State Climatologist David Zierden and Assistant State Climatologist Emily Powell participated in a workshop to discuss climate indicators related to extreme precipitation/severe storms and heat and public health for the East Central Florida region. David's talk gave a background on climate indicators for Florida, and Emily presented local climate indicator data and impacts. The workshop was hosted by The Florida Climate Institute, Stetson University, and The East Central Florida Regional Resilience Collaborative.
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Florida Climate Center in the News |
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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar Series
This webinar series, hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the NOAA National Weather Service, are held on the 2nd Tuesday of each month at 10am ET. The next webinar is December 14, and the special topic will be on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Register here.
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Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) Drought and Water Monthly Webinars
These monthly webinars are held on the 4th Tuesday of each month at 1pm ET to provide updated information on the climate, water, and drought status of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin. These webinars are sponsored by the Auburn University Water Resources Center and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The next webinar is November 23. Register here.
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The Florida Climate Center is part of a three-tiered system of national, regional, and state climate offices, including NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI - in Asheville, North Carolina) and the Southeast Regional Climate Center (in Chapel Hill, North Carolina). The Florida State Climatologist and staff at the Florida Climate Center provide the following information and services to the people of Florida:
Climate Data
Historical weather observations for weather stations throughout the state of Florida. We are able to provide data for most stations from 1948-present.
Climate Information
Long-term historical averages for various stations, climate divisions, and the entire state.
Extreme Event Records
Information and analyses on extreme events such as freezes, droughts, floods and hurricanes.
Special Analysis
With their vast knowledge of El Niño, La Niña and climate variability, the State Climatologist and staff can offer expert insight into Florida's climate trends.
Outreach
Activities, presentations, and workshops that inform and educate the people of Florida about current and emerging climate issues. We also coordinate volunteers for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS).
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