Greetings from the Coastal Resilience Team!
This month's newsletter contains:
- Lake Michigan Water Level Update
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Blog: Myth Busting Evaporation on the Great Lakes and other Water Level Fluctuations
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Resource of the Month: Protect Your Home from Bluff Erosion: Fact Sheet
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Community Story: Community Resilience Action Network of Erie (CRANE), Pennsylvania
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Funding Opportunity: FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities Program
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September Water Level Update
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The water levels on all the Great Lakes have finally dipped below their long-term monthly averages as of September 11, 2020. Lake Michigan declined 1 inch below the highest recorded monthly average in August, previously set in 1986. Even with this decrease, Lake Michigan-Huron was still 3-4 inches above mean water levels from a year ago. From this point and through the winter, water levels are expected to start their seasonal decline. It is predicted that Lake Michigan-Huron will fall between 2-9 inches from October - February 2021.
Here are five things to know about water levels on Lake Michigan for September 2020.
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Myth Busting Evaporation on the Great Lakes and other Water Level Fluctuations
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Water levels on the Great Lakes are a big topic right now. Since the beginning of this year, the water levels on the Great Lakes have been at record highs. The main question on people’s minds has been, “How and when will these water levels decrease”? The answer is: around this time of year, but it’s not really all that simple. This blog will expose a few myths and facts about evaporation and water level changes on the Great Lakes.
Myth 1: Water levels are starting to decline, which means next year the water levels won't be as high and there won't be as much flooding.
The Great Lakes are very dynamic alternating between long periods of high and low water levels in addition to going through phases of seasonal variability. Currently, we are in a longer-term trend of above-average water levels. The seasonal variability in water levels is fairly consistent: rising water levels through the spring and summer, then declining water levels through the fall and winter. We are headed into the seasonal fall decline.
Myth 2: Because of hot summer temperatures, evaporation should cause lake levels to decrease.
Fact: “Evaporation rates are affected by atmospheric variables, such as humidity, [temperature, and] wind speed” (Gronewold, 2015). There are 3 drivers for evaporation to happen: (1) Warm water temperatures and cold air temperatures, (2) Low, relative humidity, and (3) High wind speeds. These conditions are met in the fall and winter months
Myth 3: Precipitation is the main factor in water level fluctuation.
Precipitation is only one of many factors when it comes to lake levels. Net Basin Supply is the main component to determine water levels. The NBS is a compilation of the inputs and outputs of water in each of the Great Lakes. It involves the precipitation (P) and runoff (R) entering the Lake minus evaporation (E) and the amount of water leaving the Lake.
Myth 4: Humans have control over the regulation of the Great Lakes water levels.
In all actuality, humans have very little effect on the Great Lakes short term or long term water level trends. The Compensating Works dam between Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron (controlled by the International Joint Commission) partially regulates the flow of water out of Lake Superior to Lake Michigan-Huron but does not entirely control the lake levels between the two The Chicago River, engineered to flow backwards, only amounts to a decrease of about 0.4ft/year. Nature’s ability to fluctuate water levels remains far larger than anything humans are able to do.
Myth 5: Climate change will make water levels go down.
Previous climate models have overestimated the evapotranspiration on the great lakes predicting an overestimation of water loss. More current models take this into account and predict an increase in extreme weather events. These events may be characterized by increased amounts and intensity of precipitation which may cause flooding, as well as periods of extended droughts causing low lake levels.
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Protect Your Home from Bluff Erosion: Fact Sheet
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The fact sheet, “When Your Home is at Imminent Risk from Bluff Failure”, is put together by the Wisconsin Sea Grant to help homeowners understand when their homes are at imminent risk of bluff failure, what to do about it, and where to get more information. It is a simple 2 pager that lays out the most pertinent information about risk factors, options for repair, and who to contact.
This fact sheet is designed to help homeowners assess their risk level for bluff erosion and home failure. The three different sections of this fact sheet include the risk factors: (1) the distance of the house to the edge of the bluff, (2) the overall stability of the bluff, and (3) the rate at which the bluff is receding.
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Coastal Resilience Stories from Around the Great Lakes
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Community Resilience Action Network of Erie (CRANE), Pennsylvania
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CRANE was started in the City of Erie, Pennsylvania to increase literacy surrounding climate issues. Erie County includes 76 miles of shoreline, has experienced increasing vulnerabilities related to extreme weather events, and was identified as one of the nation’s top 10 fastest-warming cities. Their mission is to “Engage the community using education and collaboration to identify climate vulnerabilities and implement proactive responses that foster a vibrant and resilient region”. In 2018 they developed a 5-year climate action strategic plan to “make the Erie community more educated, resilient, and vibrant”.
This network is an alliance between multiple organizations coming together to support and create a climate-conscious community. It includes representatives from the City of Erie, the Erie County Department of Planning and Community Development, the Green Building Alliance, Pennsylvania Sea Grant, the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, and the Regional Science Consortium.
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FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities Program
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FEMA has announced their Hazard Mitigation Assistance programs for Federal Fiscal Year 2020 (webpage here). These FEMA programs are some of the few grant opportunities that provides major funding to coastal hazard mitigation construction projects. In this slate of funding opportunities is the new Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program, or BRIC. We have heard that BRIC is coming for a while now, so what is it all about?
What is BRIC?
BRIC is a new FEMA pre-disaster hazard mitigation program that replaces the existing Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) program. BRIC stands for Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities. This program “works to support capability- and capacity-building activities, encourage and enable innovation, promote partnerships, and enable high-impact investments to reduce risk from natural hazards, with a focus on infrastructure, safety, and health at the community level.” In essence, it provides funding for pre-disaster mitigation activities.
For Wisconsin communities interested in applying for BRIC funding, a notice of intent to apply must be sent to Wisconsin Emergency Management (WEM) by deadline of September 29, 2020. To notify WEM, email DMAWEMHazardMitigation@wi.gov with the name of the community, contact information, and a brief description of the project.
This blog answers questions like, Who is eligible for the Grant? How does funding work for this program? What activities are eligible for BRIC funding? and How to apply for BRIC funds?
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Image of how funding works in the BRIC program. Photo credit: American shore & beach preservation association
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If you have any questions about Lake Michigan coastal hazards or how to approach, plan, and prepare for them, please contact
Adam Bechle
608-263-5133
For more information, visit the Southeast Wisconsin Coastal Resilience Project website
Follow us on Twitter @sewiresilience for updates
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University of Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute | (608) 262-0905 | 1975 Willow Drive, 2nd Floor, Madison, WI 53706
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