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Livable Communities Newsletter
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Vol. 13, No. 52
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November 2019
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Welcome to Our Fall 2019 Livable Communities Newsletter!
The Institute for Global Economic Research (IGER) at California State University Channel Islands (CSUCI) provided an excellent research presentation at the beginning of the October 22nd 18th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference. A key piece of the IGER team's presentation was data showing that the
top three employment industries (ranked by their growth from 2004 to 2018) experiencing the highest growth in Ventura County are relatively lower-paying industries. In contrast, the industries experiencing the largest declines since 2004 currently pay the highest wages in the county. The first article highlights the impact of this situation.
The second article uses data from the Ventura County Civic Alliance's State of the Region Report to build on the the IGER team's research. When adjusted for inflation, the county experienced almost no economic growth between 2013 and 2018. California Lutheran University forecasters do not expect things to get much better in the coming years; they are projecting growth of 0.45 percent in 2019 and 0.3 percent in 2020.
The last article looks at at the hourly wage that a full time worker in Ventura County must earn to support a family, and what job categories meet (or often do not meet) the wage level required for different sized families.
Once the information in this quarter's newsletter is understood, it will be clear that sustainability within the 3E (Economy, Environment, and Equity) focus will not be reached without improvement to the current economic factors impacting directly on housing and jobs.
Please read and engage, and
let us know what you think by contacting us at: [email protected]
Thanks,
Stacy Roscoe
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Myths and Truths: Ventura County's Housing and Job Markets
Known for its perfect weather and abundance of beaches, Ventura County is the 13th most populous county in California. High population, in combination with high housing demand, leaves the county with some serious questions: Is Ventura County an expensive place to live? Does Ventura County have the right jobs to afford housing within the county? The Institute for Global Economic Research (IGER) at California State University Channel Islands (CSUCI) set out to answer these questions. IGER is housed within the Martin V. Smith School of Business & Economics and uses experiential learning practices to educate students. The student researchers' most notable findings on the current housing and economic climate of Ventura County are discussed below, with a specific focus on the current state of Ventura County's job market.
Ventura County's home ownership rate is higher than that of its nearby neighbors (Los Angeles and Santa Barbara counties), and this is partly explained by higher household incomes. Nonetheless, since 2005, while nominal incomes in the county have risen substantially, real incomes have remained virtually unchanged. This means that Ventura County residents' purchasing power has not changed much in over 10 years. During this period, home ownership rates in the county have been declining, and household sizes for renter households have been on the rise. These patterns may be explained, at least in part, by the composition of jobs in the county.
Looking at the top and bottom three employment industries (ranked by their growth from 2004 to 2018), the industries that have experienced the highest growth in Ventura County are relatively lower-paying industries. The industry exhibiting the highest growth (in percentage terms) during the past 14 years is Health Care and Social Assistance, which in 2018 had an average annual wage per job of $48,000 (see
Figure 1
). The second and third-place industries in terms of growth have substantially lower average pay ($38,000 and $22,000, respectively). In contrast, the jobs experiencing the largest declines since 2004 currently pay somewhere between $70,000 (Manufacturing) and $91,000 (Finance and Insurance).
Note: Current (2018) wages-per-job shown for each sector.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2019; and estimates prepared by IGER.
To see if this trend is unique to Ventura County, comparisons of quarterly wages for Ventura, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara Counties were conducted. Ventura County has faced the lowest amount of quarterly wage growth when compared to its neighbors. Wages per job in Ventura County have grown at an annual average rate of 1.79% since 2004. During this time, wages per job grew on average by 2.65% per year in Los Angeles County and by 2.63% per year in Santa Barbara County.
The evidence suggests that relatively high household incomes have afforded Ventura County residents higher home ownership rates than in neighboring counties. In addition, housing burdens (the share of household spending 30% or more of their income on housing costs) in the county are in line with that of our neighbors. However, the ability to afford living in Ventura County on employment wages alone is becoming increasingly difficult, with wages stagnating and Ventura's job market attracting lower-paying jobs and losing higher-paying ones.
For further information on the economic state of Ventura County, please visit the IGER website located at:
https://iger.csuci.edu/
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2019 State of the Region Report on
Gross County Product
Seven years of stalled growth
The measure is the gross county product, which is defined in much the same way as the U.S. gross domestic product: the total market value of all goods and services sold in Ventura County in one year. Growth or decline in gross product is the most accepted gauge of whether a nation or a region is in a period of economic contraction known as recession, or one of expansion.
The Ventura County economy has been far from robust in recent years. Total inflation-adjusted economic output shrank in 2016 and again in 2017 to $50.8 billion, and was projected to contract again in 2018, according to the California Lutheran University Center for Economic Research and Forecasting. When adjusted for inflation, the county experienced almost no economic growth between 2013 and 2018. The CLU forecasters do not expect things to get much better in the coming years; they are projecting growth of 0.45 percent in 2019 and 0.3 percent in 2020. If those projections hold true, Ventura County will go seven years without significant economic growth. This is not a symptom of an unhealthy national economy, such as we experienced when Ventura County's production shrank by 4.5 percent during the recession of 2008. During our local recession of 2016 through 2018, the state and the nation experienced steady economic growth.
California's economy has been particularly hot. In the San Francisco and Los Angeles regions, high cost areas are thriving, creating high paying jobs, even as they fail to provide enough housing for the workers who take those jobs. In Ventura County, something in this chain is broken. There is plenty of desire to live here, and our cost of living is correspondingly high, but with our economy no longer growing, we lack the economic opportunities that make a high cost of living tolerable.
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2019 State of the Region Report on Wages and Cost of Living
The Ends Don't Meet Easily
An important economic indicator is the hourly wage that a full time worker in Ventura County must earn to support a family. This is the income needed to cover housing, food, child care, transportation, health care, and other expenses.
The living wage for one adult in 2018 was $14.63 per hour. Most jobs pay more than that except for those in farming, food service, and personal care. For a single adult with two children, the living wage rises to $36.56 per hour. That is more than the average wage in teaching, construction, social services, and many other industries. For an adult with three children, the living wage in 2018 was $47.92 an hour, exceeding the average wage in all but the management and legal fields. These numbers show a huge problem with the cost of housing and the ability of Ventura County workers to live in the county.
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A Special Thank You Goes to Our State of the Region Report Sponsors:
Research Sponsor -
Ventura County Community Foundation
Presenting Sponsor -
Ventura County Community College District
Domain Sponsors -
AERA
AT&T
California Lutheran University
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Center for Economics of Social Issues
California State University Channel Islands
County of Ventura
Haas Automation Inc.
Limoneira
Montecito Bank & Trust
Supporting Sponsors -
Gold Coast Transit
The Port of Hueneme
United Staffing Associates
Ventura County Coastal Association of Realtors
VCDSA - Ventura County Deputy Sheriff's Association
Ventura County Office of Education
Ventura County P-20 Council
Contributing Sponsors -
California Lutheran University Center for Nonprofit Leadership
SESPE Consulting Inc.
Ventura County Credit Union
Ventura County Transportation Commission
Friend Sponsors -
Dyer Sheehan Group, Inc.
David Maron
Ferguson Case Orr Paterson LLP
Kate McLean
Slover Memorial Fund
Stacy and Kerry Roscoe
Terri & Mark Lisigor
United Way of Ventura County
Media Sponsor -
Pacific Coast Business Times
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