A Summary of Drought Conditions:
from the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
Drought Assessment Webinar 
on  August 13, 2019
 

Auburn University Water Resources Center 

and the 

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
 
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The ACF basin contains D0, D1, and D2 according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor 
(as of 8/6/2019).  
Our next briefing will be Tuesday, September 10, 2019 at 1 pm ET. 
Current Drought Status
Approximately 0 .45% of the ACF Basin is in D2 (Severe Drought), an additional 6.46% is in D1 (Moderate Drought) and an additional 13 .03 % of the ACF Basin in D0 (Abnormally Dry) according to the most current
U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 8/6/2019).  The area of drought is predominately localized to the southeastern corner of Alabama and adjacent counties in southwest Georgia and the northeast portion of the Florida panhandle.
Rainfall Totals Over the Past 7 Days
        
Rainfall totals the past 7 days throughout the ACF basin range from 0.10 to over 2 inches.

Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook - Precipitation 
According to the most recent NOAA 3-Month Precipitation Probability Outlook, the CPC Seasonal Forecast (Aug. - Oct.) predicts an equal chance in the ACF Basin for above-normal, normal, or below-normal precipitation through October.
        
Real-Time Streamflow
   

Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently in the normal to much below normal range.  ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )
Flint River near Carsonville - 28-Day Average Streamflows

28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the normal range.

28-day average flows for the Flint River have decreased since the last webinar, and are currently the normal to below normal range.

28-day average flows for the Apalachicola River are currently in the below normal range.

(for more info:  http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )

Real-time Groundwater Conditions
             Previous Brief:                                 Current Brief:
       
          
Real-time groundwater levels range from much above normal to much below normal across the ACF Basin.
 ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )

One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast
 
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) predicts near normal flow for the Chattahoochee, Flint, and Apalachicola.

 The 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the SERFC predicts near normal flows throughout the ACF Basin (possibly below normal for the Flint).


U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions 
(as of 8/13/2019) 

Inflows into all USACE ACF basin projects have fallen. Lanier, West Point, and W.F. George are below the guide curve, but are continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements. The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
 
A CF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks
  • The Atlantic tropics are currently quiet, but the highest-activity portion of the season lies ahead, possibly influencing rainfall anomalies through 3 months.
  • Rainfall may be above normal over the lower and even middle part of the ACF basin through 7 days and likely closer to normal farther north. This could ease rainfall deficits that exist in many areas over the 30- to 90-day period.
  • An area of drought centered on southeast Alabama cuts into the lower ACF basin, but, otherwise, the ACF basin is generally free of drought.
  • Neutral conditions now exist in the ENSO region of the Pacific Ocean and have the highest probability of continuing during fall and winter.
  • CPC seasonal forecast (through October) favors higher chances for above-normal temperatures, equal chances for above-/near-/below-normal rainfall. Barring any tropical-cyclone activity, this is a time of year in which conditions tend to stay/get drier basin-wide.
State of Alabama Input
  • The next meeting of the Alabama Monitoring and Impact Group (MIG) is August 6, 2019 at 1 pm CST.
ACF Basin  Streamflow and Groundwater Level Conditions
  • Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the normal range in the upper basin, dryer in lower basin.
  • Hydrologic drought conditions remain unchanged in North Georgia, but dryer conditions are noted in South Georgia.
  • 28-day average streamflow in the Chattahoochee River are currently in the normal range.
  • 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River have decreased since the last webinar, and are currently in the normal to below normal range.
  • Real-time groundwater levels range from above normal to much below normal across the ACF Basin.
Streamflow Forecasts
  • The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1-Month Streamflow Forecast predicts Near Normal for the entire ACF Basin.
  • The Southeast River Forecast Center's 3-Month Streamflow Forecast predicts Near Normal (possibly Below Normal in the Flint)
  • *Note: stream flow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC, or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
  • Inflows into the projects have fallen.
  • Lanier, West Point and WF George are below guide curve.
     
  • Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.
  • The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
     
Acknowledgments and Resources:
  • Daniel Brouillette, FSU
  • Tom Littlepage, ADECA - OWR
  • Paul Ankcorn, USGS
  • Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC
  • Cynthia Donald, USACE

 

Summary prepared by Rachel McGuire, Auburn University 
 
General Drought Information:

General Climate and El NiƱo Information:

Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting
  
Groundwater Monitoring

The Complete Set of Briefing Slides From the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:

Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center: