Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“There is an often-quoted verse in Sanskrit, which appears in the Chinese Tao-te Ching as well:
‘He who thinks he knows, doesn’t know. He who knows that he doesn’t know, knows. For in this context, to know is not to know. And not to know is to know.’ ”
- Joseph Campbell, The Power Of Myth

"Ought we not, when many most illustrious men have with great care collected and left behind them statues and images, representations not of their minds but of their bodies, much more to desire to leave behind us a copy of our counsels and of our virtues, wrought and elaborated by the greatest genius?" 
- Cicero, Pro Archia, XII.30.

"Discipline, however, needs first and foremost leadership, and not regulations. The former can only be provided by example."
- Jorg Muth



1. Seoul watches on as US corrals allies to counter China
2. S. Korea, U.S. pursue 'fully coordinated' N.Korea policy: foreign ministry
3. Two Koreas hold daily liaison, military calls after restoring communication lines
4. N. Korea waiting to hear U.S. commitment to 'action for action' approach: Andrew Kim
5. Kim Jong-un regime ‘disappointed’ with Joe Biden, former CIA North Korea chief says
6. South Korea to beef up missile detection capabilities against North Korea threats: JCS
7. Vice FM Choi calls for close USFK cooperation on base return
8. Only 44 pct of S. Koreans think unification with N.K. necessary: poll
9. Opinion | South Korea’s opposition tells Biden: Get tougher on North Korea
10. South to strengthen deterrence against North's threats
11. North Korean shot dead near the China-North Korea border last week
12. Singapore's Winson denies UN accusation it supplied oil to North Korea
13. Explained: North Korea's relentless advanced weapons programme
14. Reality Check: Sanctions Hurt North Koreans and Won’t Change Policy
15. The Battle at Lake Changjin (Chosin Reservoir)
16. Former CIA head in South Korea expects Moon and Kim to meet in coming months




1. Seoul watches on as US corrals allies to counter China
Dr. Cha turns a phrase.

Excerpts:
“The major liberal democracies of the world are coming together in this complex patchwork of coalitions, but South Korea is like the shy girl at the prom,” said Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“The Australians are on the dance floor; the Koreans are sitting by the punch bowl.”
Dependent on the US for its security, South Korea hosts more than 26,400 permanent American troops, the superpower’s largest Asian deployment after its presence in Japan and third biggest globally.

Seoul watches on as US corrals allies to counter China
Financial Times · by Christian Davies · October 5, 2021
Intensifying competition between the US and China is forcing South Korea, a crucial American ally that has long sought to maintain cordial ties with Beijing, to confront an awkward choice.
The Aukus security pact between the US, UK and Australia, and last month’s summit of the Quad grouping of America, Australia, India and Japan, illustrated the determination of Joe Biden’s administration to rally Washington’s allies in Asia.
But Seoul has eschewed such initiatives for fear of upsetting China, South Korea’s most important economic partner and a powerful stakeholder in the security of the divided Korean peninsula.

“The major liberal democracies of the world are coming together in this complex patchwork of coalitions, but South Korea is like the shy girl at the prom,” said Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“The Australians are on the dance floor; the Koreans are sitting by the punch bowl.”
Dependent on the US for its security, South Korea hosts more than 26,400 permanent American troops, the superpower’s largest Asian deployment after its presence in Japan and third biggest globally.

Its manufacturing muscle and prowess in sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries and artificial intelligence make it vital in the eyes of western policymakers for securing next-generation technology and global supply chains.
But South Korea’s proximity to China, and Beijing’s historic influence over North Korea, has long left Seoul eager to avoid attracting its neighbour’s wrath.
That reticence was exacerbated by the bruising experience of an unofficial Chinese economic blockade after South Korea agreed in 2016 to host a US missile defence system, and by the then US President Donald Trump’s subsequent threat to pull American troops off the peninsula in a row over funding.
“Given the historical context, Seoul’s reluctance to provoke Chinese ire is quite reasonable,” said Van Jackson, a former Pentagon official now at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand.
“The big change is Biden,” said Kim Hyun Wook, a professor at Korea National Diplomatic Academy, a research body affiliated with South Korea’s foreign ministry.
President Moon Jae-in’s summit with Joe Biden at the White House in May suggested South Korea was willing to pursue goals similar to those of the Quad © Anna Moneymaker/Getty
“Barack Obama did not wish to confront China. Donald Trump wanted to confront China, but didn’t care if America’s allies joined in. Biden wants to confront China, but he is also demanding America’s allies get involved. That is forcing Seoul to choose.”
The debate surrounding South Korea’s ambitious $275bn defence modernisation programme illustrates the wider uncertainty about its strategic direction.
Seoul’s development of a large “blue-water” naval fleet, coupled with a greater willingness to participate in joint military exercises with the US and other Asian and European allies, indicates a desire to play a more active role in regional security.
But defence analysts said that South Korea’s military build-up was driven as much by fear of American abandonment and suspicion over the long-term intentions of Japan as by any desire to join Washington’s efforts to confront Chinese aggression.

“South Korea continues to hedge just as a declining US needs to get the maximum benefit from all of its alliances,” said Euan Graham at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore.
“There is a frustration for the US that South Korea is developing all these wonderful capabilities and marvellous technology, but it’s not going to play a part in any grand coalition against China - unless of course China thoroughly overplays its hand.”
Similar concerns have been raised about South Korea’s absence from the Quad.
But S Paul Choi, founder of Seoul-based political risk advisory StratWays Group, argued that South Korea’s preference for low-key bilateral diplomacy should not be misconstrued as divergence from the US’s goals.
May’s White House summit between Biden and South Korean president Moon Jae-in, he argued, indicated Seoul’s willingness to pursue similar goals to the Quad, albeit in its own way.
“You have a new agenda in US-South Korea relations that mirrors that of the Quad when it comes to climate, health security, 5G and 6G technology, supply chain resilience and so on,” said Choi.
Recommended
“What would be the difference if South Korea joined the Quad: a membership card?”
Since the Moon-Biden summit, several South Korean conglomerates have announced big American investments in sectors identified by Washington as strategic priorities.
But June Park, a political economist at Princeton University, expressed scepticism that the investments signified a decisive shift in direction.
“It’s not just Korean policymakers who are hedging between the US and China — Korean business leaders are doing it, too.”
Cha, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that which direction Seoul took next depended on the 2022 presidential election.
“The [leftwing] ruling party is less tough on China, has difficult relations with Japan and doesn’t want to be a part of the Quad or other coalition groupings, whereas the [rightwing] opposition wants to be tougher on China and to work more closely with the Quad, if not join the Quad. The outcome will be consequential both for South Korea and for the United States.”
But Kim at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy suggested a decision had effectively already been made, describing the Moon-Biden summit as a “very important paradigm shift”.
“Korea is choosing the United States, but there is still a lot of doubt about America’s hegemonic capabilities. The thinking is ‘OK, we will go with you.’ But in the back of our minds there is a question: will you really be able to defend us if this goes wrong?”
Financial Times · by Christian Davies · October 5, 2021



2. S. Korea, U.S. pursue 'fully coordinated' N.Korea policy: foreign ministry

Is this an indicator of alliance friction?  

Excerpts:
Choi Young-sam, the ministry's spokesperson, made the comment after the State Department stressed the need to send a "unified" message to the North following Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong's remarks that it's time to consider easing sanctions against the North.
"South Korea and the U.S. are seeking a fully coordinated policy toward the North," Choi told a regular press briefing. "The countries have been pursuing it through close communication at each level since the Biden administration's policy review process."
The spokesperson also defended Chung's remarks related to sanctions, saying he noted the need for a "flexible and active" consideration of matters that can be discussed when Pyongyang returns to dialogue.



S. Korea, U.S. pursue 'fully coordinated' N.Korea policy: foreign ministry | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 5, 2021
By Song Sang-ho
SEOUL, Oct. 5 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States pursue a "fully coordinated" policy towards North Korea, the foreign ministry said Tuesday, apparently dismissing speculation the allies differ on the enforcement of sanctions against the recalcitrant regime.
Choi Young-sam, the ministry's spokesperson, made the comment after the State Department stressed the need to send a "unified" message to the North following Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong's remarks that it's time to consider easing sanctions against the North.
"South Korea and the U.S. are seeking a fully coordinated policy toward the North," Choi told a regular press briefing. "The countries have been pursuing it through close communication at each level since the Biden administration's policy review process."

The spokesperson also defended Chung's remarks related to sanctions, saying he noted the need for a "flexible and active" consideration of matters that can be discussed when Pyongyang returns to dialogue.
Chung made the remarks during a parliamentary audit session on Friday last week, as Seoul seeks to create an opening for the resumption of dialogue with Pyongyang through humanitarian and other incentives.
Later, a State Department spokesperson told the Voice of America that it is important for the international community to send a "strong, unified" message that the North must halt provocations and abide by its obligations under U.N. Security Council resolutions.
With the nuclear talks with the North in limbo, the U.S. has stressed the need for the implementation of U.N. sanctions, while reiterating it harbors no hostile intent to the North and is willing to meet with the North anywhere, anytime without preconditions.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 5, 2021


3. Two Koreas hold daily liaison, military calls after restoring communication lines

If I was advising South Korean intelligence I would recommend smuggling OUT of north Korea cell phones that connect to the north Korean cell phone system (or just designing cell phones that will connect to the northKorean system in the frontline area). I would recommend obtaining the phone numbers of all the front line commanders, senior political officers, and senior security officers and start making regular contact with them and talk to the three military chains of control in the frontline area.


(LEAD) Two Koreas hold daily liaison, military calls after restoring communication lines | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 5, 2021
(ATTN: UPDATES with afternoon call in 4th para)
SEOUL, Oct. 5 (Yonhap) -- South and North Korea held daily phone calls via their liaison and military hotlines Tuesday, officials said, a day after Pyongyang restored the inter-Korean communication channels.
On Monday, the two Koreas reopened the cross-border communication lines following a near two-month suspension. The move came hours after the North's state media announced that the lines would be back in normal operation as of 9 a.m. on the day.
"South and North Korea's daily call at 9 a.m. took place normally via the inter-Korean liaison office," a unification ministry official said.
The two Koreas also held a phone call through the inter-Korean liaison line at 5 p.m. as scheduled, the ministry said later in the day.
The defense ministry also said both of their direct military communication lines -- the eastern and western hotlines -- as well as their call via ship-to-ship radio links that use the global merchant marine communication network operated normally.
The resumption of daily calls came 55 days after the North began refusing to answer South Korea's calls in protest of an annual combined military exercise between the South and the United States.
The North has long denounced the allies' annual military exercise as a rehearsal for invasion.

scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 5, 2021



4. N. Korea waiting to hear U.S. commitment to 'action for action' approach: Andrew Kim

Are we going to try for a redo of the Hanoi summit effort?

I would argue that a confidence building measure is NOT sanctions relief unless we want to give Kim confidence that his political warfare and blackmail diplomacy work and see him double down and NOT begin to act as a responsible member of the international community and negotiate denuclearization in good faith.

Excerpts:
Joseph DeTrani, former U.S. envoy to six-party talks on ending North Korea's nuclear ambition, agreed North Korea is prepared to engage and even denuclearize but for the right price.
"North Korea is prepared to denuclearize. However, they're assuming they get their deliverables. They get what they need," he said in the virtual event.
DeTrani also stressed the need for a "catalyst" to reinstitute dialogue with North Korea, such as an end of war declaration that was proposed by Moon at the U.N. General Assembly in New York last month.
"This would be a confidence building gesture to the North."



N. Korea waiting to hear U.S. commitment to 'action for action' approach: Andrew Kim | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 6, 2021
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Oct. 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is likely waiting to hear from the United States that Washington is committed to an action-for-action approach toward the complete denuclearization of North Korea, a former U.S. intelligence official said Tuesday.
Andrew Kim, former founding director of the CIA's Korea Mission Center, also insisted that Pyongyang may want to see an official statement from the U.S. that it is ready to sit down for talks without any conditions.
After a monthslong review of its North Korea policy, the Joe Biden administration said it will seek a calibrated, practical approach that explores diplomacy and engagement with North Korea. It has also offered to meet with North Korea anytime, anywhere without preconditions.

"I'm sure Pyongyang was patiently waiting to hear what the new U.S. administration's North Korea policy will look like," the former CIA official said in a webinar hosted by the Washington Times Foundation.
"The reason I'm saying that (is because) Pyongyang was probably hoping to see more concrete roadmap from the U.S. side, adopting action for action approach, with giving some credit to North Korea for what they have done for the last four years," he added, noting the North has maintained a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile testing since late 2017.
North Korea remains unresponsive to numerous overtures from the Biden administration, while it has also stayed away from denuclearization talks with the U.S. since early 2019.
"They're probably waiting for some kind of a, you know, official statement that we're ready to sit down without any conditions," Kim said.
The North has staged seven missile tests since Biden took office in January, with one of the more recent launches last month involving what it claims to have been a newly developed "hypersonic" missile that Washington condemned as a violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions.
Kim insisted the North was still in a "low key."
"That means they still have some kind of hope to continue having some kind of negotiation in the future with us," he said. "I think they're focusing on right now domestic politics in South Korea, as you know the North Koreans always believe that they have some way to influence ... politics in South Korea."
South Korea is set to hold its next presidential election in March, with incumbent President Moon Jae-in's single five-year term set to end in May.
Joseph DeTrani, former U.S. envoy to six-party talks on ending North Korea's nuclear ambition, agreed North Korea is prepared to engage and even denuclearize but for the right price.
"North Korea is prepared to denuclearize. However, they're assuming they get their deliverables. They get what they need," he said in the virtual event.
DeTrani also stressed the need for a "catalyst" to reinstitute dialogue with North Korea, such as an end of war declaration that was proposed by Moon at the U.N. General Assembly in New York last month.
"This would be a confidence building gesture to the North."
South and North Korea technically remain at war as the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice and a peace treaty has never been signed.
Kim anticipated that the U.S. and North Korea will be engaged in a "fulsome conversation" within the next two to five years, but said the complete denuclearization of the North "probably will take longer than that."
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 6, 2021

5. Kim Jong-un regime ‘disappointed’ with Joe Biden, former CIA North Korea chief says

Important warning here from Andy Kim:
The U.S. and South Korea don’t always see eye to eye on what China’s role should be, Mr. Kim said.
“Sometimes we believe China can pressure North Korea on our behalf and sometimes we don’t want China to be involved at all,” he said. “On the other hand, South Korea always sees China as a major player in North Korea relations.”
There is no secret about China’s desire to “be a significant player in this effort,” he added, cautioning that Chinese President Xi Jinping may seek to capitalize on the situation over the coming months to put out the message that he is a more powerful and influential regional power broker than the United States.
Specifically, said Mr. Kim, the U.S. should be wary that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in could come together for a meeting on the sidelines of the upcoming February 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.
“Having Xi Jinping brokering some kind of meeting, the three of them,” he said, “that’s the last thing the U.S. would like to see.”
Kim Jong-un regime ‘disappointed’ with Joe Biden, former CIA North Korea chief says
Says Kim Jong-un hoped for concessions and 'roadmap'
By Guy Taylor - The Washington Times
Tuesday, October 5, 2021
m.washingtontimes.com · by The Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com
The former top U.S. intelligence official on North Korea says Kim Jong-un’s regime is “disappointed” with Biden administration policy so far, saying Pyongyang likely hoped the new U.S. administration would have delivered a “concrete roadmap” for restarting stalled nuclear talks by now.
Andy Kim, who headed the CIA’s Korea Mission Center at the height of the Trump administration’s high-stakes summits with North Korea in 2018 and 2019, said Tuesday that the Kim regime spent months “patiently waiting to hear what the new U.S. administration’s North Korea policy would look like.”
“I believe they eventually [were] disappointed,” Mr. Kim said in remarks to “The Washington Brief,” a virtual event series hosted by The Washington Times Foundation. He said the Biden administration has so far embraced a “classic middle-ground policy option of calibrated and practical approach” toward Pyongyang.
Others have been more critical, as North Korea has consistently rejected Mr. Biden’s offers to resume direct talks without preconditions this year. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently called the Biden approach a return to Obama- and Bush-era “Strategic Patience” that he said turns a blind eye to North Korean nuclear and weapons violations.
Mr. Kim pointedly avoided grading the Biden administration approach on Tuesday, offering instead a blunt analysis that the North Koreans expected and hoped the Biden administration would have aligned more with the left-leaning government in South Korea that favors engagement and concessions to the North.
“I think Pyongyang was probably hoping to see a more concrete roadmap from the U.S. side, adopting an action-for-action approach, [while] giving some credit to North Korea for what they have done for the last four years,” he said. “… I heard this many times from North Korean counterparts — that the U.S. side hasn’t really given them credit for what they have done.”
Mr. Kim referred specifically to the Kim regime’s halting intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and nuclear tests since the historic 2018 Singapore summit with Mr. Trump.
North Korea‘s frustration toward the Biden administration may explain recent rhetorical threats and other provocations from Pyongyang — most notably the recent test-launches of several shorter-range missiles.
Mr. Kim, who appeared for “The Washington Brief” with former U.S. North Korea negotiators Ambassadors Joseph DeTrani and Christopher Hill, as well as with Alexandre Mansourov of Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies, indicated that a range of factors could impact U.S. policy toward Pyongyang in the coming months.
He defined the Biden administration policy thus far as one of “risk management,” as opposed to the “crisis management” approach the Trump administration embraced in 2017 amid a major escalation at the time of North Korean ICBM tests, as well as nuclear detonation that year by the Kim regime.
U.S.-North Korean direct talks have now been stalled for more than two years following a pair of high-stakes leader-level summits under Mr. Trump. The summits captured world attention, but ultimately failed to convince North Korea to abandon the nuclear weapons program or ease the crippling U.S. and international economic sanctions Pyongyang has long criticized.
Mr. Kim, a former longtime CIA officer, suggested that the Biden administration may be content to allow South Korea to steer the policy for the time being. South Korean President Moon Jae-in has recently made diplomatic overtures to the Kim regime and expressed a desire to ink a declaration ending the official state of war with Pyongyang dating back to the 1950s before leaving office next year.
The American intelligence community is engaged in a heated internal debate over whether the U.S. should appeal to China as a potential partner in trying to influence the Kim regime.
China, which shares a border with North Korea, is Pyongyang’s main economic partner and only strategic ally. Beijing is also accused by critics of evading U.N. and U.S. sanctions on North Korea through a network of shady deals that provide goods and cash in exchange for North Korean coal.
The U.S. and South Korea don’t always see eye to eye on what China’s role should be, Mr. Kim said.
“Sometimes we believe China can pressure North Korea on our behalf and sometimes we don’t want China to be involved at all,” he said. “On the other hand, South Korea always sees China as a major player in North Korea relations.”
There is no secret about China’s desire to “be a significant player in this effort,” he added, cautioning that Chinese President Xi Jinping may seek to capitalize on the situation over the coming months to put out the message that he is a more powerful and influential regional power broker than the United States.
Specifically, said Mr. Kim, the U.S. should be wary that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in could come together for a meeting on the sidelines of the upcoming February 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.
“Having Xi Jinping brokering some kind of meeting, the three of them,” he said, “that’s the last thing the U.S. would like to see.”
m.washingtontimes.com · by The Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com

6. South Korea to beef up missile detection capabilities against North Korea threats: JCS

We need to move toward a fully integrated missile defense system.

Excerpts:

During the Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) held last week in Seoul, Seoul and Washington conducted a tabletop exercise (TTX) that was designed to strengthen their tailored deterrence against the threats by North Korea, according to the defense ministry.

The JCS also vowed to introduce additional surveillance and reconnaissance assets, including unmanned vehicles, and to enhance ballistic missile detection and interception capabilities by upgrading Patriot missiles and early warning radar systems.

In order to discuss security and alliance issues, JCS Chairman Gen. Won In-choul plans to meet with his U.S. counterpart. Gen. Mark Milley for this year's Military Committee Meeting (MCM) next month in Seoul, the JCS said.

The MCM is held every year, usually a day before the defense ministers of the two countries hold the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM). This year's SCM is slated to be held in Seoul.


South Korea to beef up missile detection capabilities against North Korea threats: JCS
The Korea Times · October 6, 2021
This photo, released by the Korean Central News Agency, Oct. 1, shows a new type of anti-aircraft missile, developed by North Korea's Academy of Defence Science.
 Yonhap

South Korea will further strengthen "tailored" deterrence, along with the United States, against North Korea's nuclear and missiles threats while enhancing its attack and missile defense capabilities, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Wednesday.

"We've seen various factors that challenge the security and peace on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea has continued to work on its nuclear and missiles programs," the JCS said in a report for the annual parliamentary audit on its affairs.

Last week, the North test-fired a newly developed anti-aircraft missile, the latest in a series of missiles launches by the communist country in recent weeks. Days earlier, the North launched a new type of hypersonic missile, which came on the heels of firing two short-range ballistic missiles and a new long-range cruise missile.

"In response, we will further develop the Korea-U.S. tailored deterrence strategies, and will beef up our strategic striking and missile defense capabilities by maximizing cutting-edge science technologies," the JCS said, citing such assets as the F-35 fighter jets, the Cheongung II surface-to-air guided missile, and the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

During the Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) held last week in Seoul, Seoul and Washington conducted a tabletop exercise (TTX) that was designed to strengthen their tailored deterrence against the threats by North Korea, according to the defense ministry.

The JCS also vowed to introduce additional surveillance and reconnaissance assets, including unmanned vehicles, and to enhance ballistic missile detection and interception capabilities by upgrading Patriot missiles and early warning radar systems.

In order to discuss security and alliance issues, JCS Chairman Gen. Won In-choul plans to meet with his U.S. counterpart. Gen. Mark Milley for this year's Military Committee Meeting (MCM) next month in Seoul, the JCS said.

The MCM is held every year, usually a day before the defense ministers of the two countries hold the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM). This year's SCM is slated to be held in Seoul.

Meanwhile, Wednesday's audit took place as scheduled, though lawmakers affiliated with the parliamentary national defense committee failed to hold the planned session for the defense ministry due to a partisan strife over a snowballing land development corruption scandal potentially involving Lee Jae-myung, the ruling party's presumptive nominee to run in next year's presidential election. (Yonhap)


The Korea Times · October 6, 2021

7. Vice FM Choi calls for close USFK cooperation on base return
This will be a continued point of friction in the alliance.

Vice FM Choi calls for close USFK cooperation on base return | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 6, 2021
SEOUL, Oct. 6 (Yonhap) -- First Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-kun called Wednesday for the U.S. military's cooperation on a plan to return part of its Yongsan Garrison in central Seoul, as South Korea pushes to turn the base into a national park.
Choi and Vice Defense Minister Park Jae-min visited the garrison to take stock of progress in the implementation of the plan to return nearly 500,000 square meters of land -- about one-fourth of the garrison site -- by early next year, the foreign ministry said.
Seoul and Washington announced the plan in July, amid worries any further delay in the return and decontamination of the garrison would hamper the mega project to establish the park.
"Vice Minister Choi stressed that the return of the Yongsan Garrison is a crucial matter directly linked to everyday life of our citizens and asked the U.S. Forces Korea to closely cooperate to ensure the return will proceed without a problem," the ministry said in a press release.

The envisioned return of the garrison is part of a broad relocation scheme to consolidate U.S. bases across the Korean Peninsula into a garrison in Pyeongtaek, 70 kilometers south of Seoul, and another in Daegu, 302 km southeast of the capital, with an aim to enhance defense readiness and operational efficiencies in the face of North Korean military threats.
The 500,000 square meters of land in point -- about the combined size of 70 soccer fields -- is expected to mostly include parts of the garrison's southern section, called the South Post, which houses schools, sports fields and officers' quarters.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 6, 2021

8. Only 44 pct of S. Koreans think unification with N.K. necessary: poll
But what happens if there is war or regime collapse? Those might make unification the only responsible opton. If the regime (and the party) are eliminated there will be no governing structure in north Korea. A transition to a new independent north Korea will likely be filled with conflict and suffering on a scale far beyond anything we have seen in recent history. And we should remember South Korea's own constitution (like the north's) claims sovereignty over all Korean territory and people. South Korea may not be able to ignore a post-conflict or post-regime collapse north Korea. And a post conflict/collapse north Korea is key to continue to pose a significant threat to the security and safety of the South that will require a military presence in the north to mitigate.



Only 44 pct of S. Koreans think unification with N.K. necessary: poll | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 5, 2021
SEOUL, Oct. 5 (Yonhap) -- Only 44 percent of South Koreans think that reunification with North Korea is necessary, a survey showed Tuesday.
According to the poll of 1,200 adults by the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies (IPUS) at Seoul National University, 44.6 percent replied that unification is necessary, recording the lowest percentage since the survey began in 2007.
The proportion of those who replied that unification was unnecessary stood at 29.4 percent, it showed.
The institute cited the North's demolition of the inter-Korean liaison office last year and the breakdown of the Hanoi summit in February 2019 between then U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as some of the factors that affected the latest results.
Among those surveyed, an all-time high of 82.7 percent said they considered the United States as a partner for cooperation, while 70.7 percent said they believe Washington will help Seoul if a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points with a 95 percent confidence level.

julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 5, 2021


9. Opinion | South Korea’s opposition tells Biden: Get tougher on North Korea

Bruce Klingner is exactly correct here:

The administration must also recognize that if North Korea isn’t interested in real negotiations, a switch of government in Seoul could help the United States keep up the pressure on both Pyongyang and Beijing. In an odd way, the South Korean conservatives and the liberal Biden administration could end up being a good match.

But in the end, there’s no solution to the North Korean nuclear issue that can avoid dealing directly with Kim, who continues to amass new and dangerous weapons. Sooner or later, hopefully from a position of strength, Washington and Seoul will have to try again to start substantive negotiations with Pyongyang.

“The choice between sanctions and diplomacy is a false one. You need both,” said Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation. “If there was an easy solution to the North Korea nuclear problem, somebody would have come up with it already.”

Opinion | South Korea’s opposition tells Biden: Get tougher on North Korea
The Washington Post · by Opinion by Josh RoginColumnist Today at 10:51 a.m. EDT · October 5, 2021
Time may be running out for the Biden administration to work with a government in South Korea that wants to engage in new diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. If the opposition conservative party takes over, its leaders say they will take a harder line — and they are calling on Washington to do the same.
Pyongyang has been signaling both provocation and outreach. Just last week, North Korea conducted the latest in a series of missile tests. The Kim regime claimed it had developed a new hypersonic missile to add to the new cruise missile and train-launched ballistic missiles it also tested last month. But even as North Korean officials accuse the United States and South Korea of "hostile policy" at the United Nations, Pyongyang restored a North-South communications hotline Monday, mixing its belligerence with diplomatic gestures.
Amid this commotion and confusion, the leadership of South Korea’s conservative opposition, the People Power Party, came to Washington late last month to deliver a clear message about Kim’s strategy: Don’t take the bait. The opposition wants to ramp up pressure on the North, an approach opposite to that of incumbent President Moon Jae-in, who is serving his last year in office.
“The Korean public definitely wants some changes here in our joint stance towards North Korea,” PPP President Lee Jun-seok told me in an interview. The 36-year-old, Harvard-educated politician is the new face of a younger generation of South Korea conservatives. The PPP presidential candidate, former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-youl, is doing well in the polls — and his party could come to power if it wins the next national election in March.
Before his single term ends, Moon is making one last push to start new nuclear and peace negotiations with the North. Moon’s latest idea, which he announced in New York during his speech last month at the U.N. General Assembly, is for both sides to officially declare an end to the Korean War as a first step toward denuclearization and peace. (The 1950-1953 Korean War ended merely with an armistice that still holds today.) The conservative opposition is warning against that move, saying it will only reward Kim for his provocations.
“The Korean public now believes everything we do with North Korea has to be done in a reciprocal manner,” Lee claimed. “And we expect the Biden administration to do the same with regards to the end of war declaration and denuclearization.”
The end-of-war declaration is not likely to get much traction; it has been tried and failed before. But the South Korean opposition not only wants the Biden team to reject Moon’s plan — it is also calling for more sanctions on the North and an increased emphasis on human rights issues, to increase the leverage of the international community vis-a-vis Pyongyang.
“As long as there is not a clear statement of denuclearization from Kim Jong Un, the Biden administration should continue to strengthen its sanctions against North Korea,” said conservative parliamentarian Thae Yong-ho, who was a top North Korean diplomat before he defected with his family to South Korea. “The easing of economic sanctions will only justify the possession of nuclear weapons. So, we should continue to send the message to the North Korean people that Kim Jong Un’s choices are wrong.”
Of course, sanctions and pressure haven’t produced denuclearization so far, partly because China has undermined that strategy over the years. But the South Korean conservatives are pledging to change that dynamic as well. Lee told me his party wants South Korea to take a larger role working with the United States and its partners to counter China’s malign actions around Asia.
The conservative party wants to rebuild trilateral ties among South Korea, Japan and the United States, said Lee. South Korea can be a good substitute in the global supply chain as countries seek alternatives to China. And South Korea under the conservatives would be open to joining multilateral groups such as the Quad, a diplomatic construct that currently includes the United States, Japan, Australia and India.
“The Moon government chose to be friends to nobody, in an effort to avoid becoming an enemy of anybody,” Lee said. “[South Korea] now has to make a choice in terms of whether we are leaning towards China or the U.S.”
It’s true that the Moon government has sought to be a balancer between the two superpowers, while doing everything conceivable to encourage engagement with the North. That doesn’t jibe with the Biden plan to rally Asian allies to cooperate against China while giving Kim the cold shoulder. If the PPP were to govern as Lee predicts, it would be more in line with the Biden administration’s approach to Asia.
The administration must also recognize that if North Korea isn’t interested in real negotiations, a switch of government in Seoul could help the United States keep up the pressure on both Pyongyang and Beijing. In an odd way, the South Korean conservatives and the liberal Biden administration could end up being a good match.
But in the end, there’s no solution to the North Korean nuclear issue that can avoid dealing directly with Kim, who continues to amass new and dangerous weapons. Sooner or later, hopefully from a position of strength, Washington and Seoul will have to try again to start substantive negotiations with Pyongyang.
“The choice between sanctions and diplomacy is a false one. You need both,” said Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation. “If there was an easy solution to the North Korea nuclear problem, somebody would have come up with it already.”
The Washington Post · by Opinion by Josh RoginColumnist Today at 10:51 a.m. EDT · October 5, 2021


10. South to strengthen deterrence against North's threats

Good words. Strengthening deterrence is always necessary. But South Korea needs to answer the question, "What does actually deter Kim Jong-un?"


Wednesday
October 6, 2021

South to strengthen deterrence against North's threats
South Korea will further strengthen its "tailored" deterrence, along with the United States, against North Korea's nuclear and missiles threats while enhancing its attack and missile defense capabilities, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Wednesday.
 
"North Korea continues to bolster its nuclear and missile capabilities, with the denuclearization talks having long stalled," the JCS said in a report for the annual parliamentary audit on its affairs.
 
"Facing multiple challenges such as the border closure and the worsening economic difficulties due to Covid-19, North Korea could undertake military provocations to tip the balance, though there is the possibility of dialogue," it added.
 
Last week, the North test-fired a newly developed anti-aircraft missile, the latest in a series of missile launches by the communist country in recent weeks. Days earlier, the North launched a new type of hypersonic missile, which came on the heels of firing two short-range ballistic missiles and a new long-range cruise missile.
 
"In response, we will further develop the Korea-U.S. tailored deterrence strategies, and will beef up our strategic striking and missile defense capabilities by maximizing cutting-edge science technologies," the JCS said, citing such assets as the F-35 fighter jets, the Cheongung II surface-to-air guided missile, and the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
 
In order to draw up the new strategies, the military is "reassessing" the security situation on the peninsula and in the region to take into consideration the results of the North's party congress held in January and the Sino-U.S. rivalry, among other issues.
 
During the eighth congress of the ruling Workers' Party, North Korea vowed to strengthen its nuclear capabilities and develop new weapons systems.
 
"We plan to issue a joint operational guidance based on the so-called 4-D operational concept — detect, disrupt, destroy and defend — against threats by enemies, and will revise our strategy on nuclear weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction [WMD] responses," the report said.
 
During the Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) held last week in Seoul, Seoul and Washington conducted a tabletop exercise (TTX) that was designed to strengthen their tailored deterrence against the threats by North Korea, according to the Defense Ministry.
 
The JCS also vowed to introduce additional surveillance and reconnaissance assets, including unmanned vehicles, and to enhance ballistic missile detection and interception capabilities by upgrading Patriot missiles and early warning radar systems.
 
In order to discuss security and alliance issues, JCS Chairman Gen. Won In-choul plans to meet with his U.S. counterpart, Gen. Mark Milley, for this year's Military Committee Meeting (MCM) next month in Seoul, the JCS said.
 
The MCM is held every year, usually a day before the defense ministers of the two countries hold the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM). This year's SCM is slated to be held in Seoul.
 
Meanwhile, Wednesday's audit took place as scheduled, though lawmakers affiliated with the parliamentary national defense committee failed to hold the planned session for the Defense Ministry due to partisan strife over a snowballing land development corruption scandal potentially involving Lee Jae-myung, the ruling party's presumptive nominee to run in next year's presidential election.
 
Yonhap

11. North Korean shot dead near the China-North Korea border last week

Is it true the regime has issued "shoot to kill" orders?

Another anecdotal indication of the potential instability in north Korea.

Excerpts:
No longer able to deal with his gradually worsening household finances, the man had recently travelled to China to meet a relative, avoiding detection by the Ministry of State Security and border patrol. On his return, however, he was shot and killed.
The border patrol reportedly discovered his body the next day, fishing it out and then cremating it. Then they turned over the remains to the family through the Ministry of State Security.
The ministry was reportedly high-handed with the family when turning over the remains, telling them that the cremation was in accordance with the “state’s highest emergency quarantine system” and that they “should accept this without complaint.”
The family was reportedly in no position to complain as the man had “engaged in treason by violating state quarantine policy in going to China.” The family also had to grieve in silence, with no sounds of tears emerging from their home.


North Korean shot dead near the China-North Korea border last week - Daily NK
By Lee Sang Yong - 2021.10.06 3:08pm
dailynk.com · October 6, 2021
A North Korean was recently shot dead near the Sino-North Korean border by the Storm Corps as he was attempting to re-enter the country, Daily NK has learned.
A source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Tuesday that on Sept. 30, a local who had crossed the border from Hoeyrong to visit a relative in China was “fired upon and shot dead” when the Storm Corps discovered him trying to return to the country.
He said the border patrol later cremated the body and returned the remains to the family through the Ministry of State Security.
According to the source, the local — reportedly a man in his 50s — went missing in mid-September, with the Ministry of State Security presuming he had crossed the border. With no evidence, however, the ministry was uncertain of the man’s whereabouts.
His neighbors also presumed that with nothing to eat, he had left for somewhere. Only after the shooting did his story come to light.
North Korean soldiers seen walking near Namyang, North Hamgyong Province. / Image: Daily NK
No longer able to deal with his gradually worsening household finances, the man had recently travelled to China to meet a relative, avoiding detection by the Ministry of State Security and border patrol. On his return, however, he was shot and killed.
The border patrol reportedly discovered his body the next day, fishing it out and then cremating it. Then they turned over the remains to the family through the Ministry of State Security.
The ministry was reportedly high-handed with the family when turning over the remains, telling them that the cremation was in accordance with the “state’s highest emergency quarantine system” and that they “should accept this without complaint.”
The family was reportedly in no position to complain as the man had “engaged in treason by violating state quarantine policy in going to China.” The family also had to grieve in silence, with no sounds of tears emerging from their home.
Meanwhile, news of the incident spread rapidly because many Hoeryong residents witnessed the border patrol fishing the body out of the Tumen River on Oct. 2. The source said locals are keeping quiet, calling the shooting a “grave incident” and encouraging one another to be careful.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
dailynk.com · October 6, 2021


12. Singapore's Winson denies UN accusation it supplied oil to North Korea

But what this tells us is that the international community needs to do a better job of enforcing north Korea sanctions.

Singapore's Winson denies UN accusation it supplied oil to North Korea
theedgemarkets.com · October 5, 2021
SINGAPORE (Oct 5): Singapore-based oil trader Winson Group denied on Tuesday a UN Security Council report alleging that it supplied fuel to North Korea in breach of international sanctions.
"Winson denies, in the strongest possible terms, any and all allegations and/or insinuations that it knowingly facilitated the illicit supply of oil to North Korea in breach of any United Nations Security Council resolutions, and/or that it is a 'key node' in North Korea's procurement of oil or refined petroleum products," the company said in a statement.
The oil trader, referring to a UN Panel of Experts' Midterm Report dated Sept 8, said it was treated unfairly by the Panel despite having "extended its fullest cooperation" to its "copious amounts of information and documents" requests as part of its investigations into alleged violations.
"A significant number of allegations and insinuations made against Winson in the Report relate to matters which were not part of the Panel's series of (very detailed) questions put to Winson," the company said.
"Winson therefore has not been given any opportunity to be heard and/or present its case in relation to such allegations and insinuations — which amounts to a substantial breach of natural justice."
The oil trader added that it "ceased all ship-to-ship operations to tankers which are not owned and/or operated by Winson in the area stretching from outside Taiwanese port limits through the East China Sea to the Yellow Sea" where some of the alleged illicit transfers took place.
Having just obtained a copy of the report, the company said it may issue a more detailed statement in due course once it had the opportunity to consider it in detail.
"In the meantime, Winson remains committed to cooperating with the Panel and demonstrating that it did not at any time breach any UN sanctions against North Korea."
theedgemarkets.com · October 5, 2021



13. Explained: North Korea's relentless advanced weapons programme

And it has pursued nuclear weapons since the 1950s. We should never forget that.  

Advanced weapons support political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, deterrence, and war fighting. There are few reasons (if any), from the regime's point of view, to give up its nuclear weapons and missiles and advanced warfighting capabilities..

Explained: North Korea's relentless advanced weapons programme
North Korea is one of nine countries in the world that possess nuclear weapons. And far from denuclearising its arsenal under international pressure, it continues to go ahead with its advanced weapons development programmes.

More tests

North Korea recently tested several different missiles. The most recent launch was of new anti-air missiles, according to state media KCNA. The country, in the past few weeks, had also tested a new hypersonic missile that was capable of striking both Japan and South Korea, key rivals of the nuclear-powered state.

Other tests included a potential ballistic missile and a cruise missile. These test launches came after a lull of nearly six months in the country’s weapon development programme.

North Korea has held that it tested its new weapons as part of boosting its self-defence capabilities and criticised the United States and South Korea for "double standards" and a "hostile policy."

Experts, however, point to North Korea’s old diplomatic ‘carrot-and-stick’ ploy of showing the world its weapons to get what it wants on the international stage.

UN responds, North Korea defiant

As North Korea’s testing is a violation of multiple UN Security Council Resolutions, the UN Security Council met to discuss the new developments. An emergency meeting, called by the US, UK and France, lasted an hour, without any official statement being made.

During the closed-door meeting, France reportedly circulated a proposed statement to express caution over the new tests from the nation and to fully implement UNSC resolutions that ban the firing of ballistic missiles.

North Korea, in response to the meeting, warned the international body that consists of five permanent members that are nuclear powers, saying it was encroaching on North Korea’s sovereignty.

"Demanding that we renounce our right to self-defence means an expression of its intention not to acknowledge the DPRK as a sovereign state," said Jo Chol Su, Director of the Department of International Organisations, at the foreign ministry, using the abbreviation for the country's official name.

"I express strong concerns over the fact that the UNSC amused itself with the dangerous 'time-bomb' this time," he added in a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency.

Conflicts and sanctions

The country is technically still at war with its southern counterpart, the Republic of Korea, which recently tested its own submarine-launched ballistic missiles. North Korea has been facing crippling economic sanctions since 2006, when it conducted its first nuclear test.

The country is officially unable to import oil, minerals, gold, and luxury goods. Experts have suggested that the ramp-up in weapons testing is a way to pressure the United States and South Korea to lift some of the sanctions in exchange for North Korea to return to the halted peace talks between the three nations.
While the UN sanctions are aimed at stopping North Korea from further developing its nuclear weapons programme, the country is already estimated to have 30-40 nuclear weapons with capabilities to produce 6-7 additional weapons each year.

Denuclearisation & some precedents

The US, South Korea, and many other nations would like to see the complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. But that appears to be unlikely. The North Korean leadership believes its nuclear arsenal to be a deterrent against any aggression that it may possibly face from the US or its other rivals.

The fates of some of the nations that gave up their nuclear arsenals or nuclear weapons programmes would not elicit much confidence in North Korea either.
Ukraine, which found itself in possession of a large number of nuclear weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union, agreed to transfer it to be destroyed. They destroyed over 3,000 Soviet era nuclear weapons, only to be invaded and occupied by Russia in 2014.

Iraq and Libya stopped their nuclear weapons programmes, only to be overthrown later by a Western coalition force and rebels, respectively. While such events may not have been prevented by the presence of a nuclear arsenal, North Korea still continues to rely on its nuclear payload and advanced missiles for both self-defence and diplomatic measures.
(Edited by : Shoma Bhattacharjee)



14. Reality Check: Sanctions Hurt North Koreans and Won’t Change Policy

Reality Check: The suffering of the Korean people in the north is the result of Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions to prioritize his nuclear weapons and missile programs and advanced warfighting capabilities over the welfare of the people.

Reality Check: It is Kim Jong-un who refuses to partake in diplomacy, except for his blackmail diplomacy. 

Reality Check: Kim Jong-un has refused to act like a responsible member of the international community.

Reality Check: The Kim family regime is trying to exploit seams in the ROK/US alliance with the intent to drive a wedge in the alliance to get US troops off the Korean peninsula.

We need to deal with north Korea as it really is and not as we would wish it to be.

And if Mr. Bandow is right that even with diplomacy there may not be a solution to the Korean problem at all, then we need to recognize the only acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, sustain, and advance ROK and US national and alliance interests:  The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
 



Reality Check: Sanctions Hurt North Koreans and Won’t Change Policy
There will be no solution without diplomacy. Unfortunately, there may be none even with diplomacy. 
The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · October 5, 2021
The Biden administration has been attempting to engage North Korea, so far without success. However, Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un has raised hopes by ordering restoration of the inter-Korea hotline, cut more than a year ago. Moreover, Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, made a surprising pitch for contact—though with conditions, of course.
Nevertheless, Pyongyang still looks far from a breakthrough. Kim Jong-un continues to give Washington the cold shoulder. Indeed, he charged that the U.S. desire to talk was merely one of its “cunning ways” to disguise its “hostile policy” toward the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Gone is the friendly tone of the infamous “love letters” between Kim and President Donald Trump. Recently, Kim to the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), Washington “is touting ‘diplomatic engagement’ and ‘dialogue without preconditions’ but it is no more than a petty trick for deceiving the international community and hiding its hostile acts and an extension of the hostile policy pursued by the successive U.S. administrations.” That doesn’t sound like an invitation for American officials to drop by for a friendly chat.
Indeed, the Pyongyang Times reported that his critique of U.S. policy was even more far-reaching. “Saying that there now exist not a few serious crises and challenges facing the world but the fundamental danger comes from the US and its vassal forces’ high-handed and arbitrary practices that destroy the foundation of international peace and stability, he noted that the current international situation is mainly characterized by the fact that it has got more complicated as the structure of the international relations has been reduced to the structure of ‘neo-Cold War’ due to the US unilateral and prejudiced bloc-forming style external policy,” the Pyongyang Times reported.
Kim did not have much good to say about the South, despite the shriveled olive branch extended by his sister. The Supreme Leader’s outreach obviously is an attempt to split Seoul from Washington, perhaps launched with the realization that South Korea’s election next March could yield a conservative administration even less inclined than the Untied States to make concessions.
The newspaper reported on his speech to the rubber-stamp SPA. “Kim Jong-un said we are closely watching the fact that recently, the US and south Korea are destroying the stability and balance around the Korean peninsula and inviting more complicated dangers of clash between the north and the south through excessive arms buildup and allied military activities that arouse concerns, underscoring the need to stand against the gangster logic of the US and south Korea, bitterly denounce it, firmly maintain our invariable standpoint to check such dangerous trend, and take all necessary tough measures,” according to the Pyongyang Times.
Thus, in the DPRK’s view, it is up to the Republic of Korea to make the first, second and third moves. The reason the South Korean lamb has yet to lie down with the North Korean lion is simple: the former’s relationship with America. Among the snippets of Kim’s talk reported by the Pyongyang Times.
· “Noting that the south Korean authorities are bent on begging external support and cooperation while clamoring for international cooperation in servitude to the U.S., he said that as regards the issue of declaring the termination of war proposed by south Korea recently, though the termination of war is declared, hostile acts would be continued.”
· “It is the invariable demand repeatedly explained by us to ensure the respect for each other and withdraw the partial view, unfair and double-dealing attitude and hostile viewpoint and policies towards the other side before declaring the termination of war.”
· “Pointing out to the attitude of the south Korean authorities who have shown no sign of change while ignoring and neglecting the sources of aggravated inter-Korean relations though they are well aware of them, he said that now the inter-Korean relations stand at the crossroads of serious choices.”
· “It is important for the south Korean authorities to change its confrontational and habitual attitude toward our Republic, keep the stand of national independence through practices, not with words.”
Were the two Koreas not still technically in a state of war, then his remarks could be laughed off as a fine example of inflated agitprop. However, backing his comments are a spate of missile tests, including antiaircraft, cruise, and hypersonic. Although under extraordinary economic pressure from international sanctions and domestically-imposed isolation due to the coronavirus, the regime continues to develop new weapons.
Still, the South should proceed with diplomacy, which in turn should be backed by Washington. Kim Yo-jong offered Seoul a possible inter-Korean trifecta, holding a summit, reopening a liaison office, and signing a peace declaration. Although the DPRK’s initial asking price will be high, everything is negotiable and this looks like the only diplomatic game that is currently available. The Biden administration’s entry into talks with Pyongyang now looks most likely through the ROK.
South Korea should approach any negotiations from a position of strength. Seoul has what the North craves—a vibrant economy, global reputation, compelling culture, international strength, and commercial options. Despite the Kim dynasty’s talk of juche, it is North Korea that is desperately dependent on another nation—in this case China—for economic survival. In fact, it is most frustrated that sanctions have prevented it from moving forward on business projects with the South.
However, the Biden administration should give Seoul something to negotiate over, agreeing to sanctions relief necessary for the ROK to offer joint development projects—conditioned on better North Korean behavior. Failure to fulfill its commitments would leave the North where it was when the South shut down the Kaesong Industrial Complex in 2016, bereft of commercial benefits it was counting on to ease its economic plight.
While there might be little reason to be optimistic about this approach, there are no better options. Military action would make the regime’s need for a large nuclear arsenal even stronger, would not destroy the entire North Korean nuclear arsenal and infrastructure, and would trigger military retaliation, and likely full-scale war. As for sanctions, they so far have not broken the regime. Indeed, the administration recently acknowledged that international enforcement is inadequate to achieve desired results. Anyway, if the DPRK can survive coronavirus-induced isolation, it can survive even tougher sanctions.
The choices in dealing with the land of no good options keep getting worse. Kim Jong-un might just be playing hard to get, but the only diplomatic door that he has opened lately is for the South. The latter should go through, with eyes wide open and, equally important, U.S. support. There will be no solution without diplomacy. Unfortunately, there may be none even with diplomacy.
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author of several books, including Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations with North and South Korea.
The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · October 5, 2021


15. The Battle at Lake Changjin (Chosin Reservoir)
A very thoughtful Oped. I just hope the author is not vulnerable since he is writing this from Beijing.

Wednesday
October 6, 2021
The Battle at Lake Changjin
SHIN KYUNG-JIN
The author is the Beijing bureau chief of the JoongAng Ilbo.

“When the name is not right, the words become impure, work is not done and courtesy and music do not thrive.” Confucius emphasized the importance of having the right name for his disciple Zilu. I was reminded of Confucius’ saying after watching the Chinese movie “The Battle at Lake Changjin,” or the Battle of Chosin Reservoir, on Oct. 1.

The film claims that the 1950-53 Korean War was “a war against the United States to help North Korea and protect home and country.” Around the 70th anniversary of the war last year, there was a flood of related films and dramas about the war in China. Veterans were awarded the Order of the Republic. They all emphasize that it was a war against America.

But the description is wrong. No matter how revisionist scholars argue that the date of the beginning of the war is not important, the fact that North Korea invaded South Korea on June 25, 1950, does not change. After watching the war in the early stage, the Chinese forces crossed the Yalu River to intervene as the situation changed with the participation of the United Nations forces, not the U.S. forces.

Before the 1970s, China used to call the war a “war to resist U.S. aggression and aid North Korea,” and the Chinese forces fought in the war as “People’s Volunteer Army,” said 69-year-old Wang Shuzeng, who was the history advisor for the movie. He practically admitted it was not the proper name for the Korean War.

Then why are they bringing up the war with the U.S. now? Through the 176 minutes of the movie, I heard the Chinese audience sniffling many times, especially when an artillery platoon commander (played by Hu Jun) dies in battle. The movie alternately shows the Chinese forces armed with only rifles and the U.S. Air Force’s bombers. The bloody scenes of bombings were enough to make Chinese people angry and antagonistic. It was a mental training for the young people who are called “Generation N,” after “nationalism.”

Moreover, the Communist Party of China last October resolved to realize the “challenge goals for the centennial of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army” in 2027. In July, the Politburo group study renewed the vow. Its contents are secret. Experts interpret it as taking back Taiwan. The antagonism the blockbuster movie ignites in the hearts of 1.4 billion Chinese people is to engulf Taiwan.

The problem is Korea. On June 27, 1950, the U.S. 7th Fleet blocked the Taiwan Strait to prevent the war from spreading over to the strait between China and Taiwan and escalating into two wars. Similarly, the cross-Strait issue is intertwined with the Korean Peninsula. Less than six years are left until the 100th year of founding of the Chinese Forces. That’s why we can’t lightly watch Chinese state-run media and Generation N’s hymn for “The Battle at Lake Changjin.”


16. Former CIA head in South Korea expects Moon and Kim to meet in coming months

Timing. Where would this fit in on the political calendar?

Former CIA head in South Korea expects Moon and Kim to meet in coming months
Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · October 6, 2021
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, walks with South Korean President Moon Jae-in during an Inter-Korean Summit, April 27, 2018. (Inter-Korean Summit Press Corps)

CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea – The former head of a CIA center tasked with countering serious threats from North Korea expects that country’s leader to meet again with South Korean President Moon Jae-in before he leaves office next year.
However, such a summit will likely happen online and not face to face, said Andrew Kim, a veteran CIA officer and founding director of the Korean Mission Center established in 2017.
Kim, who served as the point man for summits between the North Korean leader and then-President Donald Trump, made his comments during a panel discussion with The Washington Brief on Tuesday.
The Moon administration has been cautiously optimistic about improving relations with North Korea. The president, whose term ends in March, frequently calls for the Korean War signatories to declare an official end to the conflict and has volunteered to meet with Kim Jong Un and other North Korean leaders without preconditions.
Moon and Kim held three summits in 2018, where they discussed the goals of formally ending the 1950-53 Korean War and restarting inter-Korean programs. The results those meetings were widely panned by critics for lacking specific details and requirements.
Andrew Kim did not elaborate on why he believed the next summit would be held virtually; however, orchestrating the highly choreographed meetings can be time-intensive and financially costly. The cost of hosting the Singapore summit was roughly $15 million, that nation’s leader, Lee Hsien Loong, told reporters in 2018.
An in-person summit would also require delegates from both nations to account for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, of which little is known about within North Korea’s borders. Pyongyang has rejected millions of coronavirus vaccines and said it has zero confirmed infections, a claim that is widely disputed by international health experts.
Trump and Kim met first in Singapore in 2018, then again in Hanoi the following year. The leaders also met briefly at the Joint Security Area inside the Demilitarized Zone in 2019, during which Trump stepped across the border and became the first sitting U.S. president to visit North Korea.
Kim described his negotiations with North Korean officials leading up to those meetings as “very challenging.”
“We weren’t going anywhere with any kind of a meaningful, detailed agreement," he said of his discussions with North Korean officials prior to the Singapore summit. “They wanted to pursue a kind of a bigger, overall agreement. We wanted more detail — it went through several meetings and it led up to almost a day before the summit.”
Kim retired from the CIA in November 2018 after 28 years. He is now a non-resident fellow with the Korea Project at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
David Choi

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · October 6, 2021






V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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