MERISTEM INSIGHTS

RISKS OF THE RALLY

T he stock market has realized a dramatic rebound since its recent low in late March. Optimism around declining COVID-19 cases, expectations of a recovery in corporate earnings and trillions of dollars in stimulus have provided powerful tailwinds for investors in the short-term. So what could derail a further revival in the stock market? Well, according to one of our independent research providers, investors are concerned with three primary risks.

Source: Strategas Securities

You will see that two of the three greatest perceived risks were political in nature. A new wave of COVID-19 cases was cited as the major risk for only roughly a third of respondents. With nearly 20 million unemployed Americans and several new “hot spots” experiencing record new COVID-19 cases, we disagree with the ranking of risks here. While it’s only one survey, it is an eye-opening reminder that some investors have turned their attention to other issues and mistakenly put the pandemic in the rear-view mirror.

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