Dear parents and members of the school community,
I have been asked to keep sharing factual information about COVID-19 as I was doing before the school move to remote learning. These messages are also posted on our website under ‘Health News and more’ where you will find a huge amount of information about both ‘the facts’ and also more relevant guidance about the school. There are links at the end of this for some interesting reading.
As of March 31st:
Clinical Drug Trials–
The WHO has announced a multi-drug clinical trial, engaging thousands of patients globally. Current focus is on anti-malaria pills chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, the antiviral drug remdesivir, and the HIV drugs lopinavir and ritonavir. Antibiotics and immune system "modifiers" are also being trialed. The emphasis here is treating the effects of coronavirus only. In controlled studies, the results have not been promising to date. Johnson and Johnson has announced they will begin clinical trials for a COVID-19 vaccine, but again indicate there cannot be a ready vaccine any time before the first quarter of 2021.
Europe –
There are signs of some stabilization in Europe. Italy reported the smallest number of new cases in almost two weeks. Italy and Spain are approaching a peak, and European lockdowns seem to be supporting some improvement.
USA –
The USA said yesterday that they could record 200,000 deaths even “if we do things together well, almost perfectly." New York remains the epicenter. According to the NYT, "If the rate of growth in coronavirus cases in the New York metro area continues, it will suffer a more severe outbreak than those experienced in Wuhan, China, or the Lombardy region of Italy."
Russia –
Russia claims to have fewer infections but in the past 24 hours infections have increased by over 25%, with cases now doubling every three days. All non-essential business in Moscow has been shut down everyone is recommended to stay home. There are no international flights.
Some science –
The virus kills 13.4% of people over the age of 80. And 0.3% of those in their forties. Well understood is that the elderly may have a much higher incidence of preexisting conditions. The health and age of a person's immune system are key factors on whether hospitalization is required. This may be why Italy's fatality rate is so high, as the average age of its citizenry is 47, the oldest on the continent. Research on our immunity seems to be, with aging, all about T-cells or the "soldiers" to take on a new virus to the body. The older we are, the less we produce. And then the "aging" of the immune system is particular to the individual.
India and Pakistan –
Pakistan is now implementing physical restrictions but must balance controlling the virus with a large population that lives with money earned day to day. Without work and mobility, starvation is a major threat. India has locked down 1.3 billion people. India has just eight doctors and seven hospital beds per 10,000 people, and Pakistan ten doctors and six hospital beds.
Germany –
Germany may issue immunity certificates to help get people back to work
Some interesting reading:
- From The Economist, Trying to keep one-fifth of the population at home in Pakistan and 1.3 billion at home in India. A choice between coronavirus infection and starvation click here
- From The Spectator a review of data interpretation on how deadly COVID-19 is proving to be globally. The evidence is still unclear. A provocative piece click here
- From STATnews a review of why COVID-19 has hit the elderly so hard and the concept of the body's immune system twilight. click here
- From The Telegraph, German authorities may issue COVID-19 immunity certificates as an exit strategy from lockdown click here
Adrian Leece
General Director
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