The Miles Franklin Newsletter
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Gary Christenson-Contributing Writer For Miles Franklin
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Consequences, Crashes and Coronavirus
Breaking News:
a)
Exponential growth in COVID-19 cases is frightening, just like exponential growth in debt, government expenditures, and “borrow and spend” policies.
b)
The COVID-19, aka World War C, is a game changer, a reset.
c)
U.S. official cases on March 5 were 159.
d)
U.S. official cases on March 21 exceeded 24,000. Hmmmmm!
e)
New York State ordered “100% of workforce” to stay home.
f)
COVID-19 will be blamed instead of greed, corruption, bad policies, fake money, excessive spending and unpayable debt.
g)
But, to move forward, the US will increase government spending, bailouts, loans and national debt. Never waste a crisis!
h)
S&P500 companies bought back over $4 trillion in stock to reward management and shareholders. Now those companies demand federal bailouts. Privatize profits, socialize losses.
i)
Government is proposing ($2 trillion or more) bailouts for businesses and individuals. The Fed will print, and government will spend. Same song, but sung louder…
j)
The Fed has bailed out financial firms, traders, banks and hedge funds since September – by over $900 billion in new QE. More bailouts are coming. Read about
Hedge Funds
.
l)
The DOW closed at 29,551 on February 12. It closed at 19,174 on March 20, down 35% from its high. Boeing stock is down 78% from its March 2019 high. GDX stock is down 34%. A 2008 “bloodbath” comes to mind, except this reckoning remains in the first inning.
m)
Crude oil spiked down to close at $20.83 on March 18. YIKES!
n)
Gold and silver prices on the COMEX derivative exchanges have fallen. Prices for real silver coins and bullion have declined far less because premiums rose.
The same happened in 2008 before the huge runup in gold and silver prices.
Global Consequences Affect Everyone:
Cities and states have shut down, hospitals are overwhelmed, infections and deaths are rising exponentially, sporting events, restaurants, bars, and shopping centers are closed, and more. Unemployment is spiking higher. Bankruptcies and late payments will double or worse.
Volatility:
Examine the graph of the VIX—the market volatility index. The top tic price in 2008 was 89. High tic in March 2020 is 83, but a daily close in 2020 is the highest in history (data back to 1990). Panic drives volatility.
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Boeing Stock
: High close in March 2019 was $430. Close on March 20, 2020 was $95.01, down 78% from its high. Borrowing to buy back stock to boost share prices and management compensation worked for Boeing stock prices until it didn’t. Now Boeing has an impaired balance sheet, too much debt, not enough revenue and wants a $60 billion bailout. The piper must be paid, one way or another, by someone.
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The daily S&P 500 Index looks similar, a loss of 31% in one month, with more coming. Value Line ($VLE) is down over 40%. Technical indicators show an over-sold condition that may be irrelevant.
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The 25-year chart of monthly S&P 500 Index shows that prices have broken important uptrend support lines, as they did in 2000 and 2008. President Trump needs a strong market this summer to boost his reelection chances. Expect more debt, bailouts, panic and posturing. We’ll see if the Fed can generate a pre-election rally.
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Gold is the ultimate currency
. Silver is an industrial metal and a less important currency. In a panic (March 2020) traders sell everything to meet margin calls. Some gravitate, if they can, toward the ultimate currency—gold.
“But with the Fed and the US government promising to underwrite all businesses facing difficulties as a consequence of the virus, the inflationary consequences for the dollar will be staggering.”
“… it is almost certain the dollar’s value in terms of purchasing power will be fatally compromised.”
Because of Repo Madness, QE, Fed policies, and bailouts, the following are almost certain:
a)
Gold will rally well beyond its all-time high of $1,923.
b)
Silver will rise past highs of $50.00 from 1980 and $48 in 2011.
c)
National debt will grow many $trillions larger.
d)
Government expenses will expand, while tax revenues decline.
e)
The Fed will “print” - monetize government debt – and increase QE to fund excessive government expenditures.
f)
COVID-19 may become unimportant in several years, but massive unpayable debt will remain.
Gold to Silver Ratio:
We could expect gold to fall less than silver, but whoa… look at this graph of the weekly COMEX gold to silver ratio.
The ratio exceeded 120, an all-time historical high.
The ratio shows panic
, huge sales of silver contracts on the COMEX, and desire for gold, the currency of last resort. Central banks have bought gold for over a decade. Russia and China sold dollars and T-bonds and bought thousands of tons of gold. In contrast, Western governments increased debt, pushed interest rates to near zero, and levitated stock markets while shipping gold to Asia.
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The DOW to gold ratio
shows the preference for paper and stock investments versus hard assets—real money. The ratio peaked in 2000 before the stock market crashed, fell into 2011 (gold market peaked), rose into 2018, and fell since then.
The ratio trends for many years. It peaks and breaks a trend line, falls and breaks a trend line, and repeats. Expect the ratio to fall for several years as the DOW declines or makes little progress and gold rockets higher.
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Crude Oil:
Crude oil crashed to a (so far) low of $20.83 on March 18, 2020. This hurts American shale oil companies, traditional oil companies, and the banks that loaned them $billions.
Silver to S&P ratio
Silver prices are too low, and the S&P is high. Expect silver prices to rise substantially.
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CONCLUSIONS:
- Markets are volatile and crazy. The consequences of fake money and bad policies crash markets and economies.
- You can ignore fake money, but you can’t ignore the consequences of fake money. Year 2020 is the year we experience the nasty consequences of excessive debt.
- Government and Federal Reserve responses show panic. The “printing” has begun.
- Unemployment is spiking higher.
- COVID-19 will be blamed for the economic reset.
- Revenues will fall, expenses, and debt will rise. Since corporations and individuals can't counterfeit dollars (as the banking cartel does), expect bankruptcies to soar.
- Enormous forces are pushing stock markets, crude oil, gold, and silver markets lower. Someday stock markets will bounce higher and fall further. Gold and silver prices on the COMEX will soar to new highs.
- Premiums on gold and silver bullion and coins are large. The U.S. Mint is out of silver eagles.
- The DOW to gold ratio is falling, has broken trend line support, and will fall further this decade. Expect the ratio to fall from 22 (in 2018) to 5 or below. A DOW of 20,000 and gold at $10,000 are possible in several years.
- $ trillions of fake money have evaporated and gone to money heaven. The carnage is not finished.
- Our economic crisis reminds me of a professional golfer playing the back nine on Sunday afternoon. A bad bounce knocked his drive out of bounds and forced a double bogey. He followed with back to back triple bogies. Game over.
- Ratios show that silver is underpriced compared to gold and stock Indexes.
Buy silver and gold to protect your savings and retirements.
Miles Franklin
will convert digital and paper dollars into real money—gold and silver. For some products, you may experience delays receiving your metals, but prices are locked in and safe. Call 1-800-822-8080.
Gary Christenson
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About Miles Franklin
Miles Franklin was founded in January, 1990 by David MILES Schectman. David's son, Andy Schectman, our CEO, joined Miles Franklin in 1991. Miles Franklin's primary focus from 1990 through 1998 was the Swiss Annuity and we were one of the two top firms in the industry. In November, 2000, we decided to de-emphasize our focus on off-shore investing and moved primarily into gold and silver, which we felt were about to enter into a long-term bull market cycle. Our timing and our new direction proved to be the right thing to do.
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