Market Digest          
8.29.18          
OBSERVATIONS
Back to School: College Edition
It's a major milestone in any parent-child relationship: the college drop-off. Over the past few weeks, parents across the country have been delivering their wide-eyed freshman students to their new dorm room to begin their journey into adulthood. 

As you probably know, college is more important than ever. College graduates enjoy much better job security and opportunity, especially during economic downturns. And a college diploma opens the door to a lifetime of higher earnings. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and using 2016 dollars, bachelor's degree holders earn nearly $1 million more over a lifetime than high school graduates. Those with professional degrees earn over $2 million more.  

But as you also know, college is expensive. Using The College Board's 2017 Trends in College Pricing, we learn that last year, the average public school tuition, fees, room and board was $20,770 and $46,950 for a private school. But for children born this year, college costs are staggering. The projected cost of a four-year college education for a newborn is $215,444 for a public school and a whopping $487,004 for a private school. Multiply those numbers by the number of children in a family and it's easy to see how crucial it is to plan early for this major expense.

Making the most of college gifts
Many of our clients are in the fortunate position to help their college-bound children or grandchildren. If that is something you're interested in doing, you probably want to consider the benefits of 529 plans.

A 529 plan is a college savings plan that offers tax and financial aid benefits. Much like a Roth IRA, after-tax contributions are invested and earnings accumulate on a tax-deferred basis. When used for qualified higher education expenses, distributions are not subject to federal taxes. The definition of qualified higher education expenses was expanded in 2015 to include computers and in 2017 to include up to $10,000 annually in K-12 tuition.

In 2018, investors can gift up to $15,000 individually, or $30,000 from a couple, to their family members without any gift tax consequences. But if you want your gift to be used for education purposes, a gift into a 529 plan provides additional benefits. 5 29 plans allow five years of tax-free gifts in one year - up to $75,000 per child from individuals and $150,000 from couples. And one large gift at a child's birth can pay for nearly all expected four-year public and private college costs.
529 Plan 2018 Gift Limits

Illustration assumes an annual investment return of 6% compounded monthly. 
This example does not represent the performance of any particular investment.

529 plans offer estate planning benefits too. Contributions and investment gains are removed from the contributor's taxable estate. The account owner retains full control over the account and can change beneficiaries or transfer unused assets to other family members. 

Gifts to 529 plans can help families meet college costs while also reducing estate taxes, increasing inheritances and creating lasting legacies. If you're interested in learning more about how these investments might fit into your own financial plan, give us a call.


MARKET UPDATE
Investors sent equity markets higher last week despite trade tensions, stronger expectations for rate hikes and the sensational news that two of President Trump's former advisers, P aul Manafort and Michael Cohen, are guilty of criminal acts. Technology and Energy stocks led the rally and small cap stocks outpaced their large cap counterparts. The S&P 500 has more than quadrupled since the depths of the global financial crisis in March 2009.

Equity Index Returns through August 24 2018
Source: Yahoo Finance
ECONOMIC NEWS
> Housing:  Housing is the one sector of the economy not showing any life. July's existing home sales dipped for the fourth month in a row, missing consensus expectations. This is the lowest rate in 2-1/2 years and year-over-year resales are down 1.5%. Both single-family homes and condos are showing weakness and all regions show similar declines on the year with the West posting the only monthly gain in July, at 4.4%. 

Existing Home Sales July 2018

> Interest Rates:   In comments made in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said, "The economy is strong. Inflation is near our 2% objective, and most people who want a job are finding one ... If the strong growth in income and jobs continues, further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will likely be appropriate." 

Based on the futures market, investors are almost certain Fed policymakers will increase the rate again when they meet in late September. As shown below, the probability of a rate hike in September has risen from an already high 88% to over 99% in just the last month. Today's rate now targeted between 1.7% and 2%, well above the near-zero level we saw from late 2008 to 2015, but still historically low.

Target Fed Funds Rate Probabilities as of Aus 27 2018
Source: CME Group, powered by QuickStrike

> Yield Curve:   As the Fed has steadily pushed up the cost of overnight borrowing - with a further increase expected next month - the yield curve between the two-, and 10-year Treasury notes has flattened from above 0.8 percentage points a year ago, to inside 0.2 percentage points on Friday after Mr. Powell's speech in Jackson Hole.

A flattening yield curve is characteristic of a late-cycle economy and the bond market is signaling that the story for 2019 is one of weaker economic growth and lower inflation. 

Yield Curve Spread of 10 year over 2 year bonds Aug 24 2018

THE WATERCOOLER
The Labors of Labor Day
Enjoy your holiday weekend! 

NEW MARKETS. NEW ADVICE.
New Market Wealth Management offers modern investment solutions backed by extensive research and experience serving the needs of wealthy families. Through our strategic partnership with Cliffwater LLC , we have access to institutional-quality research, investment due diligence and asset allocation tools. We believe this level of experience and unique access to in-depth, sophisticated research are essential for success in today's complex world markets.

New Market Wealth Management
(657) 900-1899