Rate hike ahead...maybe.
Last week's U.S. employment report was better than expected. The United States added 235,000 jobs in February, which was a few more than economists had forecast.
It may seem counterintuitive, but the positive economic data helped push U.S. stock markets lower. The jobs report was a sign the American economy continues to be strong and indicates a rate hike may be on the horizon. Barron's reported:
"If anything, the data just confirms what we've known for a while now: The economy is growing, and one rate hike is unlikely to do much damage...There's still a strong likelihood of some sort of economic stimulus plan from the Trump administration sometime this year...But the fact that tax cuts and infrastructure projects are even being considered at a time when the U.S. economy is adding 200,000-plus jobs a month is 'unprecedented'..."
Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes affect stock markets because they make borrowing more expensive. Higher borrowing costs may reduce the amounts people and companies spend and affect companies' profitability and share values.
At the end of last week, CME's FedWatch Tool, which gauges the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy, indicated there was better than an 88 percent chance of a rate hike when the Fed meets on March 15.
It's interesting to note investor sentiment has become less optimistic. Last week, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey showed investor pessimism had reached its highest level since February 2016. Bearish sentiment increased by almost 11 points, finishing at 46.5 percent. That's significantly higher than the historic average of 30.5 percent. Bullish sentiment fell by almost eight points to 30 percent. That's below the historic average of 38.5 percent. The AAII survey is often used as a contrarian indicator.
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Data as of 3/10/17
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1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
-0.4%
|
6.0%
|
19.3%
|
8.1%
|
11.6%
|
5.4%
|
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
0.1
|
5.2
|
11.7
|
-1.7
|
1.9
|
-0.9
|
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
2.6
|
NA
|
1.9
|
2.8
|
2.0
|
4.6
|
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
-1.9
|
3.8
|
-5.0
|
-3.6
|
-6.7
|
6.4
|
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
-3.4
|
-3.7
|
6.2
|
-14.6
|
-10.3
|
-6.6
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|
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index
|
-4.2
|
-1.1
|
8.3
|
9.8
|
10.3
|
4.4
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S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
