Corn - With initial corn harvest underway, it appears that overall corn yield will be about average.  Early planted corn (planted prior to April 1) appears to be slightly above the average historical county yield.  In contrast, corn planted in April appears below average.  Corn planted in May appears to be slightly above average, but more variable. Exceptions to these general conditions exists, but this seems the current trend. 

 

In short, the frequency and total accumulation of rainfall resulted in great variation of yield and planting dates.  The combination of frequent and excessive rainfall resulted in shallow root systems for corn.  Too, nitrogen losses from leaching and denitrification made it mandatory to replace loss nitrogen.  Even so, plants simply lacked the ability to utilize the nitrogen during the weeks of hot, humid temperatures due to low soil moisture and excessive heat or plants simply ran out of available nitrogen to fill grain.  Root systems were simply too shallow.  Thus, yield is lower than desired.    

 

The price outlook was discussed in detail by Brooks Schaffer, Pinnacle Marketing, in the September newsletter from the Corn Growers Association of NC.  In the article, Some Good News Regarding Corn Supply and Demand, it was advised to simply take advantage of the market uncertainty.  The impact of the derecho winds in the Midwest are still not clear.  Too, even the USDA has reduced corn production acres and potential yield.  So, if the next crop report reflects lower production, we may see a slight increase in price.  In contrast, if the USDA estimate does not reflect less yield, we are likely to see a decrease due to the uncertainty of the ability to move, store and utilize the corn due to Covid-19 impacts.   Either way, any upward movement is likely to be rapid so watch closely.  Take advantage of slight increases in price if you can.  

 

Soybeans - About 60% of soybeans were planted prior to end of June and appear average to above average in yield.  Regrettably, the fields planted later struggled during the few weeks of excessive heat and low soil moisture.  These later planted soybeans are likely to drag the county average yield down.  Too, due to above normal hot and wet weather conditions,  NCSU faculty report higher incidence of secondary pest such as the three-cornered alfalfa hopper or various fungal diseases.  Too, stinkbug populations have been higher in soybeans and some have not scouted as needed.   All of these factors decrease yield. 

In spite of slower demand due to Covid-19 restrictions and the negative impact this has on the economy, soybean prices remain steady.  It is not anticipated to move rapidly unless we realize problems with transportation or storage of the crop.  Having thus said, uncertainty seems to be our "new normal" so watch the market closely. 

 

Cotton - Like all other crops, we appear to have two distinct scenarios for yield depending upon planting date.  Early planted cotton is slightly behind our normal crop stage but yield appears above average.  Later planted cotton is incredibly variable depending upon soil type, rainfall and management. Too, the later planted cotton may make us choose to wait as long as possible for bolls to mature before we initiate defoliation.   So far, we've had ideal weather for this but this trend can end suddenly.  If so, we may be forced to defoliate leaving some of the top crop immature.  Time will tell. Cotton price support at $0.68-$0.70 may be possible, but short lived if the USDA crop report reveals lower yields in Texas and other states due to adverse weather.  If not, the price is likely to remain flat to slightly lower than the current market.  

 

Peanut - Most that planted peanuts did so twice.  The first planting was in May and timely but excessive rainfalls rotted seeds.  Thus, most planted at least half of production again about 3-4 weeks later after the excessive rains ended.  (This has been the only time in my life that I have ever seen peanuts rot rather than emerge.  It is a testament of truly excessive rainfall).  The early planted crop appears healthy and is likely to be harvested on schedule or only slightly later than normal.  Above average yield is possible for these fields.  In contrast, the later planted peanuts are a bit more difficult to predict.  Plants are healthy but the projected amount of heat units required to mature the crop reveal that digging should occur roughly from early to mid-November.