Quotes of the Day:
"Asymmetric actions have come into widespread use, enabling the nullification of an enemy's advantages in armed conflict."
- Valery Gerasimov, The value of science is in foresight
"No weapon has ever settled a moral problem. It can impose a solution but it cannot guarantee it to be a just one. You can wipe out your opponents. But if you do it unjustly you become eligible for being wiped out yourself."
- Ernest Hemingway
“We need women at all levels, including the top, to change the dynamic, reshape the conversation, to make sure women’s voices are heard and heeded, not overlooked and ignored.”
- Sheryl Sandberg
1. Explainer | What is a hypersonic missile, and has North Korea aced the technological know-how?
2. North Korea's New 'Hypersonic Missile': Not a Game Changer Just Yet
3. N.K. leader says inter-Korean communication lines will be restored in early Oct.
4. Military closely monitoring N. Korea amid concerns over additional missile launch
5. Scrap the bill (South Korean "fake news')
6. US denies hostile intent, reiterates willingness to talk with North Korea
7. North Korea does not seek improved relations with South Korea: US official
8. Japan's new leadership unlikely to resolve ties with Korea: experts
9. N.Korea's Kim offers to reopen hotline with South; denounces 'hostile' U.S.
10. North Korea's Kim says US offer of talks a 'petty trick'
11. Does North Korea Really Want To Talk to South Korea?
12. Hwasong-8: Does North Korea Really Have a Hypersonic Missile?
13. Programme of Work | United Nations Security Council
14. North Korea: the rise and rise of ‘first sister’ Kim Yo-jong
15. North Korean Missiles, Gestures Toward Seoul Seen as Latest Bid for Sanctions Relief
16. Security Situation on The Korean Peninsula
1. Explainer | What is a hypersonic missile, and has North Korea aced the technological know-how?
I am not sure we even know if they really tested one. We are only aware of the north's claims so far (unless I have missed some reports). Until the intelligence agencies offer a public assessment based on their analysis we really cannot judge their capabilities.
We should understand this as a step forward from the January 8th Party Congress when the north said it would improve its military capabilities. They are following what the National Intelligence Officer, Sydney Seiler calls the four-dimension concept: The development, demonstration, diplomacy, and domestic dimensions. Testing of the missile is critical to the development of the program and advancement of the capability. They are demonstrating their capability to the international community and specifically the ROK and the US. They are using this as part of their blackmail diplomacy (the use of increased tension, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions). And lastly this could be for domestic messaging. They are currently holding a previously unannounced Supreme People's Assembly meeting and this launch could be to show the Korean people in the north that the regime is defending them against the external threats of the ROK and US.
Explainer | What is a hypersonic missile, and has North Korea aced the technological know-how?
- North Korea, which has been steadily developing its weapons systems, test-fired a newly developed hypersonic gliding missile this week
- Though details on the Hwasong-8 are limited, hypersonics can travel more than 6,100 kph, and experts say Pyongyang is developing this missile with the US in mind
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Published: 5:34pm, 30 Sep, 2021
A photo released by KCNA shows a hypersonic missile being test-fired in Jagang province, North Korea. Photo: KCNA VIA KNS / AFP
North Korea this week tested what state media called a hypersonic gliding missile, sophisticated weaponry that would be the nuclear-armed nation’s latest technological advance and could factor into the strategic balance.
Here are some questions and answers on the technology and North Korea’s capabilities:
What is a hypersonic missile?
Hypersonics are defined as being able to travel at velocities of at least five times the speed of sound – Mach 5, or more than 6,100 kilometres (3,800 miles) per hour.
As well as their sheer speed, they can manoeuvre in mid-flight, making them much harder to track and intercept than traditional projectiles.
By cutting flight times, they also reduce the opportunity to respond.
Depending on the design, they can be capable of carrying nuclear warheads or conventional only, and have the potential to alter the strategic balance.
Who has them?
Russia is generally seen as the world leader in the technology so far, developing a range of new hypersonic weapons that President Vladimir Putin has dubbed “invincible”.
In July it successfully tested the Zircon, a ship-launched hypersonic missile travelling at seven times the speed of sound.
It already has Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles and the air-launched Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles in its arsenal.
Russian officials say the Avangard has reached a staggering 33,000 kilometres per hour during tests.
Others are looking to catch up: The US is spending billions on several research programmes and said this week it had successfully tested an air-launched hypersonic missile built by Raytheon that reached a speed “greater than Mach 5”.
China has also tested hypersonic glide vehicles, according to the US Congressional Research Service, which says both Russian and Chinese hypersonic systems are designed to be nuclear-armed.
Russia’s Avangard hypersonic missile system. File photo: EPA-EFE
What exactly does North Korea have?
Details on the North Korean missile – the Hwasong-8 – are limited.
Pyongyang’s official KCNA news agency said the test had “confirmed the navigational control and stability of the missile”, the “guiding manoeuvrability and the gliding flight characteristics of the detached hypersonic gliding warhead”, and the engine.
It did not say what speed it had reached, but added that it had an “ampoule” fuel system – a propellant canister that could eliminate the need for launch-site fuelling.
Ordinary liquid-fuelled missiles cannot be transported with their propellant on board as its volatility makes it too dangerous to do so.
Instead, they must be fuelled immediately before launch, a time-consuming process that gives an enemy ample opportunity to locate and destroy them.
Has there been independent confirmation?
South Korea has not confirmed what type of missile it was.
Washington and Seoul are security allies and have extensive radar and surveillance technology observing the North.
The South’s military usually detects and announces ballistic missile launches within minutes of them happening, and did so on Tuesday.
But it did not follow up with its usual practice of specifying the maximum altitude and flight distance.
Media reports citing unnamed sources say it reached a height of around 60 kilometres and flew less than 200 kilometres, but did not specify its speed – the crucial variable.
In a statement, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff assessed it as being “at an initial phase of development and will take a considerable time to be deployed”, adding the South Korean and US militaries were “capable of detecting and intercepting it”.
South Korea’s Yonhap news agency suggested without citing sources that it could have reached Mach 3.
North Korea’s test launch of railway-borne missile sparks international alarm
What difference would it make?
Some experts caution that hypersonic weapons may have only limited advantages, with a Scientific American article last month saying that “by no means do they constitute a revolution”.
But if Pyongyang goes on from this week’s first test to fully develop hypersonic technology, “it would pose a significant military threat”, said Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Centre for North Korea Studies at the Sejong Institute.
“It is reasonable to assume the North is developing this missile with the US in mind,” he said, adding that it could be used as a bargaining chip in future talks with Washington.
Tuesday’s launch was short-range, but Pyongyang would look to develop mid- to long-range capabilities in the field, he added.
“If developed in long-range, there is no country on earth, including the US, that can intercept such a high-speed missile.”
2. North Korea's New 'Hypersonic Missile': Not a Game Changer Just Yet
Two key points in this excerpt:
While North Korea’s claims of testing “hypersonic” missile technology will no doubt raise concerns in Northeast Asia about its continued qualitative progress with missile technologies, this latest test does not represent a game-changing development in the region.
A theme in North Korea’s missile development efforts since 2017 has been attempt to defeat missile defenses. A hypersonic glider presents one technological path to stressing existing U.S., South Korea, and Japanese missile defense capabilities.
But instead of breathlessly panicking about this new capability, policymakers should understand that “hypersonic” missile technologies are not a monolithic class of superweapons, but vary in types, with each offering different advantages and trade-offs.
North Korea's New 'Hypersonic Missile': Not a Game Changer Just Yet
North Korea has announced that it successfully tested a new “hypersonic missile” earlier this week. The country’s Academy of Defence Science said that a newly developed missile, dubbed the Hwasong-8, was flight-tested for the first time and carried a “hypersonic gliding warhead.” State media described the missile as a “strategic weapon,” which is a euphemistic way of implying that it is nuclear-capable.
While North Korea’s claims of testing “hypersonic” missile technology will no doubt raise concerns in Northeast Asia about its continued qualitative progress with missile technologies, this latest test does not represent a game-changing development in the region.
A theme in North Korea’s missile development efforts since 2017 has been attempt to defeat missile defenses. A hypersonic glider presents one technological path to stressing existing U.S., South Korea, and Japanese missile defense capabilities.
But instead of breathlessly panicking about this new capability, policymakers should understand that “hypersonic” missile technologies are not a monolithic class of superweapons, but vary in types, with each offering different advantages and trade-offs.
In strict terms, all that’s conveyed by the word “hypersonic” is that the weapon in question travels at a speed of more than five times the speed of sound (Mach 5). All long-range ballistic missiles, in this sense, are “hypersonic”—even missiles that North Korea first flight-tested in 1990s, for instance.
Where things get more interesting is with ”gliding warheads.” Unlike traditional ballistic reentry vehicles, which follow a parabolic trajectory to their targets, gliding warheads are part of a class of so-called maneuvering reentry vehicles. Unlike their simple ballistic counterparts, these warheads employ fins and aerodynamic designs to maneuver in the earth’s atmosphere to their targets.
Hypersonic gliders like Russia’s Avangard and China’s DF-17 reenter the atmosphere early and spend most of their flight path in unpowered aerodynamic flight at hypersonic speeds. (Avangard is an intercontinental-range system and the DF-17 is a theater-range system.) Because ballistic missile reentry vehicles spend much of their time in the vacuum of space, they can often—but not always—be quicker to reach their targets than gliders of equivalent range.
Long-range gliders can maneuver during the so-called mid-course phase of their flight; mid-course missile defense interceptors, like the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3), would be unable to intercept these, but future “terminal” missile defenses may be able to. (Terminal defenses attempt to destroy incoming warheads during their final moments of flight.)
It’s not difficult to understand why North Korea might be interested in gliders. This technology is seeing significant interest across the world’s major missile powers and is perceived to be essential for defeating missile defenses. But while North Korea’s scientists and engineers may see this project as worthwhile, there are already ways in which Pyongyang’s missile arsenal can overwhelm and stress missile defenses.
For instance, North Korea could rely on simply saturating missile defenses with large salvo launches in a conflict. This concept was tested in 2016 and 2017, when North Korea carried out simultaneous launches of multiple ballistic missiles. Additionally, newer North Korean quasi-ballistic missiles first tested in 2019 also exhibited flight characteristics similar to a hypersonic glider, spending much of their time in the earth’s atmosphere while maneuvering to their target.
Beyond the claims of the North Korean Academy of Defense Science and a single photograph released by state media, there’s little data at the moment that would allow for detailed insight into the military utility of this new North Korean missile. But the bigger picture here is that North Korea remains a nuclear-armed state with an increasingly diverse and capable array of delivery systems.
Kim Jong Un had indicated in January 2021, at the Eighth Party Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, that he sought to test a hypersonic glider. At that same Party Congress, he had alluded to new cruise missiles as well, which were also recently tested. Like the years between 2013 and 2017, North Korea has now embarked on a new campaign of military modernization. Without diplomacy to incentivize a cessation of North Korean testing, Kim’s pursuit of qualitative improvements to his capabilities will continue.
Hwasong-16. Image: KCNA Screenshot.
Hwasong 16 ICBM. Image Credit: KCNA Screenshot.
Kim is slowly, but surely working his way through the expansive military modernization wish list he laid out in January 2021. Apart from new cruise missiles and hypersonic gliders, Kim also alluded to multiple warhead intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and more responsive solid propellant-based ICBM. With the newly tested hypersonic glider, Kim appears to have kept his word. Without diplomacy to dissuade further testing, we shouldn’t be surprised to see North Korea test more advanced weapons in the coming months. The missile-testing campaign of the 8th Party Congress is in full swing.
3. N.K. leader says inter-Korean communication lines will be restored in early Oct.
Ahem... spoiler alert.All Kim needs to do is authorize his duty officer to pick up the phone. There is no "restoring" of communications lines. Just answer the phone. Answer the damn phone. How hard is that?
(4th LD) N.K. leader says inter-Korean communication lines will be restored in early Oct. | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS unification ministry's response, more info throughout)
By Koh Byung-joon
SEOUL, Sept. 30 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that cross-border communication lines with South Korea will be restored in early October as part of efforts to improve chilled relations but warned that it is entirely up to Seoul to determine the future trajectory of their ties, state media reported Thursday.
In a speech at the second-day session of the Supreme People's Assembly on Wednesday, Kim also said the U.S.' hostile policy toward Pyongyang has not changed at all since the Joe Biden administration took office early this year and its offer to hold talks without preconditions is nothing but "a petty trick for ... hiding its hostile acts."
The United States immediately refuted Kim's claims and urged Pyongyang to return to dialogue.
"The United States harbors no hostile intent toward the DPRK," a State Department official said, referring to the North by the acronym of its official name, Democratic People's Republic of Korea. "We are prepared to meet with the DPRK without preconditions. We hope the DPRK will respond positively to our outreach."
South Korea's unification ministry said that the reactivation of the severed hotlines will help address a host of pending issues between the two Koreas and expressed hope that the lines remain in operation in a stable manner going forward.
Kim "expressed the intention to see to it that the North-South communication lines that had been cut off due to the deteriorated inter-Korean relations are restored first from early October," the official Korean Central News Agency said.
The restoration will be "part of the efforts for realizing the expectations and desire of the entire Korean nation to see the earlier recovery of the North-South relations from the present deadlock and durable peace settling in the Korean peninsula," Kim was quoted as saying.
"We have neither aim nor reason to provoke South Korea and no idea to harm it and it is necessary for South Korea to promptly get rid of the delusion, crisis awareness and awareness of getting harmed that it should deter the North's provocation," Kim said.
He also said that it "depends on the attitude of the South Korean authorities whether the inter-Korean relations would be restored and develop onto a new stage or continue to keep the present state of worsening."
Inter-Korean relations have remained in a deadlock since the no-deal summit between the U.S. and North Korea in early 2019. The ties chilled further after North Korea blew up the Kaesong liaison office and cut off all cross-border communication lines last year in protest of anti-Pyongyang leaflets sent from the South.
The hotlines were briefly back in operation in late July, but the North began refusing Seoul's regular calls again two weeks later as it bristled at joint military drills by South Korea and the U.S. that the North has long denounced as a rehearsal for invasion.
In recent weeks, however, the North has signaled a willingness to improve ties with the South, even holding out the prospect of an inter-Korean summit on the condition Seoul drops its "double standards" of criticizing the North's "defensive" weapons tests while justifying its arms build-up.
Kim urged Seoul to drop its "double-dealing attitude" first before seeking a declaration to formally end the Korean War recently proposed by President Moon Jae-in, saying it is up to Seoul to determine the future trajectory of inter-Korean ties.
North Korea recently ratcheted up tensions by conducting its first test-launch of a hypersonic missile. This marked the sixth major weapons test and came about two weeks after it fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea, which drew condemnation from Seoul and Washington as Pyongyang is banned from using ballistic technology under U.N. sanctions.
With regard to the U.S., Kim said that Washington's military threats and hostile policy against Pyongyang have not changed at all and have become more "cunning" since the new administration took office early this year.
"The U.S. remains utterly unchanged in posing military threats and pursuing hostile policy toward the DPRK but employs more cunning ways and methods in doing so, as proven by the deeds done by it over the past eight months since the emergence of its new administration," he was quoted as saying.
DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"The U.S. is touting 'diplomatic engagement' and 'dialogue without preconditions,' but it is no more than a petty trick for deceiving the international community and hiding its hostile acts and an extension of the hostile policy pursued by the successive U.S. administrations," he added.
Kim said, "The international relations has been reduced to the structure of 'neo-Cold War' due to the U.S. unilateral and prejudiced bloc-forming style external policy" and ordered his staff to map out "tactical measures for thoroughly implementing the strategic policy" toward the U.S.
The unification ministry in Seoul said the reopening of cross-border communication lines is needed to address a variety of pending issues facing the two Koreas under stable circumstances, adding it will make thorough preparations for the reactivation of the lines and also hoping for their stable management going forward.
Meanwhile, during Wednesday's session of the rubber-stamp parliament, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the leader, was elected as a member of the State Affairs Commission (SAC), the country's highest policymaking body. She has been deeply involved in relations with South Korea and the U.S.
Also elected to the SAC is Jo Yong-won, a close aide to the leader, and secretary for organizational affairs of the ruling party's Central Committee, according to the KCNA.
kokobj@yna.co.kr
(END)
4. Military closely monitoring N. Korea amid concerns over additional missile launch
Keep in mind Syd Seiler's four dimensions (4D): development, demonstration, diplomacy, and domestic as we analyze and assess north Korean actions.
Military closely monitoring N. Korea amid concerns over additional missile launch | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 30 (Yonhap) -- The military is closely monitoring North Korea over possible signs of an additional missile launch but has nothing to comment on as of now, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Thursday.
On Wednesday, the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said the country's Academy of Defense Science conducted the first test fire of the hypersonic Hwasong-8 missile from Toyang-ri, Jagang Province, the previous day.
Asked if there were any signs of preparations for additional missile launches from the North, JCS spokesman Col. Kim Jun-rak said there were no activities to comment on as of now.
"Our military is monitoring related moves under close coordination with South Korea-U.S. intelligence authorities," he said during a regular press briefing.
Tuesday's missile launch marked the North's sixth known major weapons test this year and came about two weeks after it fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.
During a speech at the country's rubber-stamp parliament Wednesday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said his country is "developing a powerful new weapon system capable of thoroughly containing the military moves of the hostile forces," and that its "ultra-modern weapons" are "being developed at an extremely fast speed."
scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
5. Scrap the bill (South Korean "fake news')
Yes. This bill must be rejected. it is an affront to democracy and freedom of the press.
Thursday
September 30, 2021
Scrap the bill
A controversial revision to the Media Arbitration Act failed to pass a regular session of the National Assembly after the ruling Democratic Party (DP) agreed to talk with the opposition People Power Party (PPP) to set up a special committee to discuss problematic clauses in the revised bill until the end of the year instead of railroading it through the legislature.
It is fortunate that the DP accepted the postponement of the revised bill, justly characterized as a “media gagging act” and “press punishing act” due to its poisonous clauses, which would make media outlets, for instance, pay penalties ten times the damages claimed against them for “fake news.” Both parties plan to put all related laws on the table and discuss effective ways to reform the media. But the revised bill is most likely doomed as no consensus can be reached on the toxic clauses between the two sides.
We welcome the decision by the two parties. In fact, the controversial clauses such as the punitive damages and authorization of a ban on online news when the need arises were strongly opposed by all local press organizations and even foreign media associations, including the World Association of News Publishers (WAN) and the International Press Institute (IPI). The UN Human Rights Commission went so far as to send a letter of concern to the Moon Jae-in administration followed by the National Human Rights Commission’s expression of concern. The DP belatedly came up with another revision to negotiate with the PPP, but it too was met with strong criticism. Some said it was worse than the original revision.
We are amazed at the way hard-liners in the DP behaved before it decided to not push the revision through. After the National Assembly speaker demanded both parties reach an agreement before putting the bill to a vote, more than 30 hawkish lawmakers of the DP threatened to take an “extraordinary action” if the revised bill was not put to a vote. While former Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae defined it as a “surrender to the press and PPP” on Facebook as expected, a number of zealots in the DP posted denunciations of the speaker and floor leader of the party on its website.
The DP must not push the passage of the malicious bill until after 2021. The party must immediately abandon the bill as it is full of unconstitutional provisions. The PPP is concerned that the DP would rekindle the flame after it elects its presidential candidate in the March 9 election.
President Moon Jae-in also pointed to the need to review controversial clauses of the bill given the avalanche of criticisms from local media organizations, civic groups and international community. That reflects his opposition to railroading the revision without an agreement with the PPP. The president’s caution was joined by the government minister in charge, who underscored the role of a government to protect the “freedom of speech at maximum levels.” We hope the DP does not make another fatal fumble ahead of the presidential election next year.
6. US denies hostile intent, reiterates willingness to talk with North Korea
Excerpts:
"The United States harbors no hostile intent toward the DPRK. Our policy calls for a calibrated, practical approach that is open to and will explore diplomacy with the DPRK to make tangible progress that increases the security of the United States, our allies, and our deployed forces," a State Department spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency in an email.
...
"We are prepared to meet with the DPRK without preconditions. We hope the DPRK will respond positively to our outreach," the spokesperson added.
US denies hostile intent, reiterates willingness to talk with North Korea
In this 2019 February file photo, a man paints a pole next to pictures of Vietnam, U.S. and North Korean national flags in Hanoi ahead of the second U.S.-North Korean summit. AFP-Yonhap
The United States has no hostile policy and is ready to meet with North Korea without preconditions, a State Department spokesman said Wednesday, after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the U.S. offer to engage with the North is a disguise for its hostility.
"The United States harbors no hostile intent toward the DPRK. Our policy calls for a calibrated, practical approach that is open to and will explore diplomacy with the DPRK to make tangible progress that increases the security of the United States, our allies, and our deployed forces," a State Department spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency in an email.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.
"We are prepared to meet with the DPRK without preconditions. We hope the DPRK will respond positively to our outreach," the spokesperson added.
The U.S. has consistently called on North Korea to engage in dialogue since the Joe Biden administration took office in January.
North Korea has remained unresponsive to U.S. overtures.
In a national address delivered at a parliamentary meeting Wednesday (Seoul time), the North Korean leader argued the United States' hostile policy toward his country has not changed a bit eight months after the new U.S. administration took office, according to a report by the North's official Central News Agency.
Kim also said that the U.S. offer for engagement and dialogue without preconditions was "no more than a petty trick for deceiving the international community and hiding its hostile acts."
Kim, however, said the North will reopen direct communication channels with South Korea early next month.
The State Department official said the U.S. supports inter-Korean dialogue.
"We strongly support inter-Korean cooperation and believe it plays an important component in creating a more stable environment on the Korean Peninsula," the official said.
North Korea had reopened its cross-border channels with South Korea in late July, about 13 months after it had unilaterally severed them but only to terminate them again about two weeks later in August in protest against Seoul's regular joint military exercise with South Korea that month.
North Korean ambassador to the United Nations, Kim Song, last week urged the U.S. to permanently halt its joint military exercises with South Korea if it wished to improve ties with his country. (Yonhap)
7. North Korea does not seek improved relations with South Korea: US official
Key points (among a number of them):
"I think North Korea is well aware of the strength of the alliance and this is a value of, first of all, 28,500 (U.S. Forces Korea) troops on the ground with dependence. So the commitment of the United States to the defense of Republic of Korea is well understood by North Korea," he said.
"That's why the North Koreans hate our exercises. Not because they feel our exercises are a threat, but (because) they are a regular reminder ― our training and our exercises ― that we have an alliance that is committed to deny North Korea from seeking to do what it attempted to do on June 25, 1950 and what it has attempted to generate year after year," he added, referring to the start date of the 1950-53 Korean War.
The U.S. official reiterated the allies must not ease their joint deterrence or their emphasis on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as the North Korean leader may come to believe that "first, he can gain acceptance as a nuclear weapons state" and "second, split the U.S.-ROK alliance ― achieve decoupling."
Seiler also insisted the countries should not pay too much attention to North Korean provocations such as missile launches, noting they only indicate the North's continued to efforts to improve its weapons systems.
North Korea does not seek improved relations with South Korea: US official
In this image captured from Youtube, Sydney Seiler, national intelligence officer for North Korea at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, speaks in a webinar hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank, Sept. 29.
The top U.S. intelligence officer on North Korea on Wednesday argued the North does not seek a permanently improved relationship with South Korea, arguing the North's long-term objective remains decoupling the U.S.-South Korea alliance and possibly invade South Korea.
"I'm always interested to see an introduction of a new piece of intelligence or information that would overturn my assessment but you just have to conclude strategically North Korea does not seek sustained improved relations with South Korea," said Sydney Seiler, national intelligence officer for North Korea at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
"In fact, you can make more arguments because of influence, cultural influence, political influence and the price that would have to be paid. There's no real sustained North-South daytime without the nuclear issue being addressed that just the cost of sustained engagement with the South is greater than it's worth for the North," he added in a webinar hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
His remark comes after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's sister, Kim Yo-jong, said the two Koreas may discuss ways to improve inter-Korean relations and even hold an inter-Korean summit if Seoul dropped its hostility against her country.
North Korean ambassador to the U.N., Kim Song, on the other hand, called for a permanent end to the joint military exercises of South Korean forces and U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) troops, calling them a sheer example of what he called the countries' hostility against the North.
Seiler said the North has always tried to and continues to seek to drive a wedge between the two allies.
"I think North Korea is well aware of the strength of the alliance and this is a value of, first of all, 28,500 (U.S. Forces Korea) troops on the ground with dependence. So the commitment of the United States to the defense of Republic of Korea is well understood by North Korea," he said.
"That's why the North Koreans hate our exercises. Not because they feel our exercises are a threat, but (because) they are a regular reminder ― our training and our exercises ― that we have an alliance that is committed to deny North Korea from seeking to do what it attempted to do on June 25, 1950 and what it has attempted to generate year after year," he added, referring to the start date of the 1950-53 Korean War.
The U.S. official reiterated the allies must not ease their joint deterrence or their emphasis on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as the North Korean leader may come to believe that "first, he can gain acceptance as a nuclear weapons state" and "second, split the U.S.-ROK alliance ― achieve decoupling."
Seiler also insisted the countries should not pay too much attention to North Korean provocations such as missile launches, noting they only indicate the North's continued to efforts to improve its weapons systems.
North Korea on Wednesday (Seoul time) said it test fired a new hypersonic missile the previous day.
"All too often, however, people are overly focused on when's the next launch or when's the next talks. We know talks will come. We know launches will come ... The longer term strategic implications of a non-denuclearizing North Korea is where everybody's eyes and minds and heads should be focused right now," he said.
To prevent North Korea from achieving its "longer term strategic objectives," Seiler said they countries must seek to establish an international consensus that the North will never be accepted as a nuclear weapons state.
"Maintaining that international consensus on the unacceptability will send a strong message to Pyongyang that their strategy is not working," he said.
"The opposite is frankly potentially dangerous because it could encourage Kim Jong-un beyond the mere possession of nuclear weapons but using those to achieve longer term strategic objectives we all know," added Seiler. (Yonhap)
8. Japan's new leadership unlikely to resolve ties with Korea: experts
I fear these experts are right.
Japan's new leadership unlikely to resolve ties with Korea: experts
Former Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida attends a press conference at the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, Wednesday, after being elected the LDP president. He will become next prime minister of the country. EPA-Yonhap
Tokyo may wait for Korea's next administration to be launched
By Kang Seung-woo
The leadership change in Japan with a new prime minister to be appointed next week is unlikely to reverse the current downward spiral of bilateral ties with Korea anytime soon, according to diplomatic observers, Thursday.
On Wednesday, Japan's former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida won the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leadership election and is set to be become the next prime minister, Oct. 4. Kishida is known here for his role in the now-scrapped "comfort women" deal in 2015 to resolve the thorny historical issue of sexual slavery.
In response to Kishida's election, Cheong Wa Dae issued a statement, hoping for cooperation with the new Japanese Cabinet for the development of forward-looking relations between the two countries, which have reached their lowest point in years over historical and territorial issues. Outgoing Prime Minster Yoshihide Suga never held a summit with President Moon Jae-in after taking office a year ago.
"While a new leadership is always an opportunity for change, I think that Kishida's victory to lead the LDP will not have much impact on Korea-Japan relations in the near term," U.S. Naval War College Professor Terence Roehrig said.
Roehrig also noted that the new premier faces a heap of domestic issues to focus on, including upcoming parliamentary elections, ahead of addressing the feud with Korea.
Japan is scheduled to hold a general election in November and the election of the House of Councillors, the upper chamber of parliament, next summer.
Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said the tensions in Korea-Japan relations were historical and structural in nature and that the distrust was very difficult to reverse.
"Unfortunately, I think that the dangerous downward spiral in Korea-Japan relations has its own momentum," he said.
"The recent decision to seize and sell Mitsubishi assets by the Moon administration, for example, would have a very negative reaction in Japan regardless of who might be prime minister, as it goes against Japanese views on previous Korea-Japan agreements."
Earlier this week, the Daejeon District Court ordered the sale of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' assets here to compensate victims of forced wartime labor.
"I think in light of the current situation, any Korea-Japan rapprochement will be difficult and a long-term issue, though cooperation in the face of mutual threats from North Korea should continue," Manning added.
Roehrig said if Kishida survives the November election, his Cabinet will await the outcome of Korea's presidential election in March 2022, rather than reaching out to the Moon administration, which has been making last-ditch efforts to normalize its relations with Japan before his term ends in May 2022.
"Kishida will assess the new Korean administration's position on improving ties. There may be an opportunity for progress then, but the obstacles remain huge," he said.
Amid growing China's assertiveness in Indo-Pacific, the United States is seeking to rally its regional allies to counter Beijing and as part of its efforts, Washington is trying to enhance trilateral cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga leaves after a news conference at his office in Tokyo in this Sept. 9 photo. The outgoing prime minister has never held a summit with President Moon Jae-in since taking office about a year ago. AP-Yonhap
In that respect, there is speculation that the administration of President Joe Biden may try to do something to mend ties between its two key Asian allies on the occasions of Kishida's inauguration.
The experts admitted that the U.S. will make some efforts toward such a reconciliation although it stands little chance of success.
"I expect the Biden administration will quietly make efforts to reverse the momentum of Korea-Japan relations which continue to sink," Manning said.
"But I suspect U.S. efforts will be limited ― beyond strong pressure to enhance U.S.-Korea-Japan strategic cooperation."
Roehrig echoed Manning's view.
"The U.S. government will continue to attempt to quietly encourage improved Korea-Japan ties for the sake of trilateral cooperation," he said.
"However, Washington recognizes the difficulty of this task and its expectations for improvement anytime soon will remain low."
9. N.Korea's Kim offers to reopen hotline with South; denounces 'hostile' U.S.
No one should doubt the regime is trying to achieve one of its key objectives: to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance. Divide to conquer -divide the alliance to conquer the ROK.
N.Korea's Kim offers to reopen hotline with South; denounces 'hostile' U.S.
SEOUL, Sept 30 (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he is willing to restore severed inter-Korean hotlines next month but accused the United States of proposing talks without changing its "hostile policy", the North's KCNA state news agency reported on Thursday.
Kim made the remarks at the reclusive country's rubber-stamp parliament, the Supreme People's Assembly, which gathered for a second day to discuss the government's political, economic and social agenda.
The United States and ally South Korea have for years been trying to press North Korea to give up its nuclear and missile programmes in exchange for sanctions relief.
Kim has refused to abandon weapons he says North Korea needs for its defence and has at times tried to drive a wedge between the two allies.
In his latest comments, he expressed a willingness to reconnect inter-Korean hotlines but criticised South Korea's "delusion" over what it calls North Korean military provocations.
"We have neither aim nor reason to provoke South Korea and no idea to harm it," Kim said, according to KCNA.
North Korea severed the hotlines in early August in protest against joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises, just days after reopening them for the first time in a year. read more
The decision to restore the communication link was to help "realise the expectations and desire of the entire Korean nation" for recovery and durable peace, Kim said.
South Korea's Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, welcomed Kim's offer on the hotlines but did not comment on his other remarks.
Kim took a tougher line on the United States, accusing President Joe Biden's administration of "employing more cunning ways and methods" in pursuing military threats while offering talks.
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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivers a policy speech at the second-day sitting of the 5th Session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly (SPA) of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) at the Mansudae Assembly Hall in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this undated photo released on September 30, 2021 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. REUTERS IS UNABLE TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THIS IMAGE. NO THIRD PARTY SALES. SOUTH KOREA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN SOUTH KOREA.
"The U.S. is touting 'diplomatic engagement' and 'dialogue without preconditions' but it is no more than a petty trick for deceiving the international community and hiding its hostile acts," Kim said.
'OPEN TO ENGAGEMENT'
Sung Kim, the U.S. special envoy for North Korea, said on Thursday the North's missile tests posed a threat to neighbours, and he stressed that the United States had "no hostile intent" toward North Korea and was ready for "tangible progress" on the diplomatic front.
"We remain open to engagement ... to discuss the full range of bilateral and regional issues," the U.S. envoy said after meeting his South Korean counterpart in Indonesia, where he serves as U.S. ambassador.
The U.N. Security Council will meet on Thursday over the North's latest test following requests from the United States, Britain and France, diplomats said.
Analysts say the North's carrot-and-stick approach is aimed at securing international recognition as a nuclear weapons state and dividing the United States and South Korea, taking advantage of President Moon Jae-in's desire for a diplomatic legacy before his term ends in May.
"The North seems upset about the Biden administration having not made any concrete, tempting proposal to resume negotiations," said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
North Korea was also attempting to foster a more positive mood towards it in the South ahead of its presidential election and to press Moon to help shift the U.S. stance, he said.
Kim Jong Un did not refer to the North's recent missile tests but touted "ultra-modern weapons which are being developed at an extremely fast speed" and capable of containing "hostile forces."
KCNA separately reported that Kim Yo Jong, the leader's powerful sister, was named a new member of the State Affairs Commission, a top body created in 2016 and chaired by Kim Jong Un, as part of a reshuffle unveiled on the sidelines of the parliament meeting.
Kim Yo Jong, 32, has risen rapidly since her brother took power in 2011, becoming a senior official on propaganda and ideological messaging in 2014 and later taking on diplomatic duties.
Reporting by Hyonhee Shin and Sangmi Cha; Additional reporting by Michelle Nichols in New York; Editing by Richard Pullin, Robert Birsel
10. North Korea's Kim says US offer of talks a 'petty trick'
Excerpts:
But Kim condemned the declarations as "no more than a petty trick for deceiving the international community and hiding its hostile acts", the official KCNA news agency reported.
The new administration was pursuing "military threats" and a "hostile policy" unchanged from the past, "but employs more cunning ways and methods in doing so", he said in a lengthy address to the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA), North Korea's rubber-stamp parliament.
Pyongyang has been largely biding its time in recent months as it assessed the Biden government and focused on domestic issues.
It has been behind a rigid self-imposed blockade since early last year to protect itself from the coronavirus pandemic, with the economy suffering as a result and trade with key partner China dwindling to a trickle.
But Kim's speech was the latest in a series of actions with international ramifications this month.
North Korea's Kim says US offer of talks a 'petty trick'
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un condemned a US offer of dialogue as a "petty trick", state media reported Thursday, and accused the Joe Biden administration of continuing a hostile policy against his nuclear-armed country.
Talks between Pyongyang and Washington have been effectively at a standstill since the collapse of a 2019 Hanoi summit between Kim and then-president Donald Trump over sanctions relief and what North Korea would be willing to give up in return.
Under Biden, the United States has repeatedly offered to meet North Korean representatives anywhere, at any time, without preconditions, while saying it will seek denuclearisation.
But Kim condemned the declarations as "no more than a petty trick for deceiving the international community and hiding its hostile acts", the official KCNA news agency reported.
The new administration was pursuing "military threats" and a "hostile policy" unchanged from the past, "but employs more cunning ways and methods in doing so", he said in a lengthy address to the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA), North Korea's rubber-stamp parliament.
Pyongyang has been largely biding its time in recent months as it assessed the Biden government and focused on domestic issues.
It has been behind a rigid self-imposed blockade since early last year to protect itself from the coronavirus pandemic, with the economy suffering as a result and trade with key partner China dwindling to a trickle.
But Kim's speech was the latest in a series of actions with international ramifications this month.
This week, North Korea tested what it said was a hypersonic gliding missile, and earlier this month announced it had successfully fired a long-range cruise missile, after holding a scaled-down military parade.
Pyongyang's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes are banned under UN Security Council resolutions, and it is subject to multiple international sanctions as a result.
The United States condemned this week's launch, but in response to Kim's comments said it "harbours no hostile intent toward the DPRK" -- the acronym for the North's official name.
"We are prepared to meet with the DPRK without preconditions," a State Department spokesperson said in a statement, reiterating the offer.
"We hope the DPRK will respond positively to our outreach."
The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting Thursday on North Korea, at the request of the United States, France and the United Kingdom, diplomatic sources told AFP Wednesday.
North Korea has not shown any willingness to give up its arsenal, which it says it needs to defend itself against a US invasion.
Kim's speech indicated Pyongyang would keep improving its capabilities unless Washington changed course, said Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.
"It has come to a judgement that it has no choice but to get ready for a long-haul approach with the US, meaning it will continue developing strategic weapons while keeping a stable peace mode with the South."
- 'Double-dealing attitude' -
Washington and Seoul are security allies, and the United States stations around 28,500 troops in the South to protect it from its neighbour. Last month, the two held joint military drills that always infuriate Pyongyang.
The North has repeatedly excoriated the South and its President Moon Jae-in since the collapse of the Hanoi summit, and blown up a liaison office on its side of the border that Seoul had built.
At the UN General Assembly this month, Moon reiterated his call for a formal declaration of the end of the Korean War, where hostilities ceased in 1953 with a ceasefire rather than a peace treaty.
But Kim said the South was "in servitude to the US", and that an end-of-war declaration could only come with "mutual respect" and an end to the "unfair and double-dealing attitude and hostile viewpoint".
Nonetheless, he expressed a willingness to restore North-South communication lines in early October.
Seoul is also spending billions on military development as both Koreas build up their weapons capabilities in what could become an arms race on the peninsula, with ramifications for neighbouring Japan, China and the wider region.
This month, South Korea successfully test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) for the first time, making it one of a handful of nations with the advanced technology.
This week, it held a ceremony to launch its third submarine capable of carrying SLBMs.
kjk-slb/jah
11. Does North Korea Really Want To Talk to South Korea?
Only if it can manipulate it as part of its political warfare strategy (my thought not Doug Bandow's)
I think the regime wants to exploit the situation because the South (Moon administration)wants engagement so much more than the north.
Excerpts:
Still, Kim’s statement offers at least a small opening for contact and talks. If her conditions are met, “when impartiality and the attitude of respecting each other are maintained” and “smooth understanding between the north and the south” is possible. Then, she added, “several issues for improving the relations—the reestablishment of the north-south joint liaison office and the north-south summit, to say nothing of the timely declaration of the significant termination of the war—[can] see meaningful and successful solution one by one at an early date through constructive discussions.”
That is the trifecta sought by Seoul: renewed liaison meetings, another leaders’ summit, and a peace declaration. With those on offer the Moon government should respond positively—but with caution and restraint. It doesn’t want to act so desperate for an agreement, any agreement, that it falls for a bait and switch routine and trades away important interests. Rather, the ROK should engage confidently, insisting that the North act in accordance with its demands of Seoul by ending the DPRK’s demonstrated hostility to South Korea and show proper respect to the Moon government.
Does North Korea Really Want To Talk to South Korea?
North Korea’s First Sister, Kim Yo-jong, has gone from tossing insults at Seoul to whispering sweet nothings suggesting better diplomatic times ahead. Maybe. If the Republic of Korea will just meet a few conditions.
Her comments, a change from the regime’s generally cold shoulder stretching back more than two years, no doubt will raise hopes in the ROK, and especially in the Moon administration, which has desperately been attempting to revive bilateral talks before next year’s presidential election. However, President Moon Jae-in risks playing Charlie Brown as the North Korean Lucy again pulls the ball away at the last minute, leaving Moon humiliated once again.
Kim’s statement is fine exhibit of North Korean agit-propaganda. First, no credit is given to Moon’s steadfast efforts at reconciliation, even though he is a prototypical South Korean progressive who has been viciously attacked by the opposition for seeking to improve relations.
Rather, Kim cited the South Korean public supposedly determined to join with the North despite Seoul’s obstruction. Apparently in a magnanimous mood, she agreed: “I felt that the atmosphere of the south Korean public desiring to recover the inter-Korean relations from a deadlock and achieve peaceful stability as soon as possible is irresistibly strong. We, too, have the same desire. There is no need for the north and the south to waste time faulting each other and engaging in a war of words at present, I think.”
Next, Kim insisted that Seoul speak respectfully if it hoped to proceed. This from a regime that leaves no insult unsaid, and for which Kim has become the principal mouthpiece. She demanded: “If south Korea sincerely wants the inter-Korean relations to be recovered and to make sound development, it should think twice to make a right choice before saying anything. For instance, it had better stop spouting an imprudent remark of ‘provocation’ against us that may trigger a war of words.” The complaint about provocation comes from the representative of a regime that in the past routinely threatened to turn other nations’ cities into lakes of fire.
Then Kim denounced “double-standards,” which the North “can never tolerate.” That should be a laugh line since it is difficult to imagine a country that does not employ double standards, none more often than the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Yet she also made a serious point:
“The U.S. and south Korean-style double standards towards the DPRK by which the DPRK’s actions of self-defensive dimension to cope with the military circumstances and possible military threats existing on the Korean peninsula are dismissed as threatening ‘provocations’ and their arms buildup are described as the ‘securing of a deterrent to north Korea’ are illogical and childish, and are a blunt disregard of and challenge to the sovereignty of the DPRK.”
At least before producing nuclear weapons the country most at risk in Northeast Asia was North Korea. The ROK enjoys vast advantages in most measures of power. And Seoul is backed by the world’s superpower, which has proved that it is ever ready to impose regime change. The result then tends to be, shall we say, “adverse” to the local ruler, as Libya’s Muammar Khadafy discovered painfully a decade ago.
However, Kim’s self-righteous tone ignored an even broader double standard. Having attempted to forcefully swallow the ROK in 1950 and thereafter initiated manifold violent incidents, the North cannot be trusted. Actions it claims to be defensive might be, but maybe not. The burden of building trust falls most heavily upon the North.
However, Kim obviously believed that a strong defense requires perpetual offense. So, she said, the South must modify its behavior to convince Pyongyang to engage. She explained: “I only hope that the south Korean authorities’ moves to remove the tinderbox holding double standards bereft of impartiality, the hostile policy toward the DPRK, all the prejudices and hostile remarks undermining trust are shown in visible practice.”
Aside from the extraordinary chutzpah of this demand—speaking of hostility, who destroyed the Korean liaison building constructed at great cost by Seoul?—the standard also is wonderfully ambiguous. The North tends to define anything that it doesn’t like as part of “the hostile policy.” So, too, “prejudices and hostile remarks undermining trust,” which in Pyongyang’s view could be most anything. The DPRK is likely to constantly ask for more, making it impossible for the South to ever do enough.
Of course, if the demand isn’t met, Kim suggested with just a hint of menace that the outcome might not be good: “I won’t predict here what there will come-a balmy breeze or a storm.” Reinforcing this almost offhand threat is the latest North Korean missile launch, supposedly a hypersonic missile.
Sometimes the North’s claims represent more aspiration than reality, but the regime generally does not stray too far from genuine plans. Reported the Washington Post: “The South Korean military said Pyongyang appeared to still be in the early stages of development of its hypersonic weapons system, and said that South Korea and the United States are currently capable of detecting and intercepting this missile.”
However, The DPRK’s missile and nuclear programs have demonstrated steady and significant progress over the years. Observed the New York Times: “Pyongyang has been in a dizzying sprint to build an arsenal that contains the kinds of advanced capabilities you would find in the United States or Russia.” Of particular note is the recent estimate by the Rand Corporation and Asan Institute that the North could have 200 nukes in just six years.
Still, Kim’s statement offers at least a small opening for contact and talks. If her conditions are met, “when impartiality and the attitude of respecting each other are maintained” and “smooth understanding between the north and the south” is possible. Then, she added, “several issues for improving the relations—the reestablishment of the north-south joint liaison office and the north-south summit, to say nothing of the timely declaration of the significant termination of the war—[can] see meaningful and successful solution one by one at an early date through constructive discussions.”
That is the trifecta sought by Seoul: renewed liaison meetings, another leaders’ summit, and a peace declaration. With those on offer the Moon government should respond positively—but with caution and restraint. It doesn’t want to act so desperate for an agreement, any agreement, that it falls for a bait and switch routine and trades away important interests. Rather, the ROK should engage confidently, insisting that the North act in accordance with its demands of Seoul by ending the DPRK’s demonstrated hostility to South Korea and show proper respect to the Moon government.
Moon has an impressive personal as well as professional background, but like many South Korean progressives he has been too eager to reach an agreement with the North, encouraging the North Koreans to make more outrageous demands and engage in more extreme behavior, such as blowing up the liaison office. Although recognizing the importance of engaging rather than isolating Pyongyang, the left in the ROK too often seems to excuse DPRK misbehavior, acting as if North Korea’s history of threats and violence resulted from inadequate South Korean and American deference.
Moon should address the North from a position of strength. Kim Jong-un wants sanctions relief and South Korea would be his best economic partner in the future. Moreover, Moon should emphasize that the election to select his success is less than six months away. With his party holding a strong legislative majority, he is in position to move any agreements forward before he leaves office. Afterward, however, Kim may face a much more hostile reception.
Moreover, Moon should make a strong pitch to the Biden administration to strengthen his negotiating position by offering to ease or suspend sanctions to allow modest inter-Korean development projects. They could be offered as small examples of future possibilities should the two Koreas move toward a genuine détente. Achieving some success now would help maintain an improved relationship even if the Blue House changed hands.
Of course, Kim Yo-jong’s latest comments may merely lead to another seemingly pointless political game with a frustrating end. Such is the risk of dealing with the North. However, after effectively sanctioning itself, the DPRK is hurting economically and desperate for relief. Pyongyang also is uncomfortably dependent on China, something Kim Jong-un originally avoided after taking power.
The North is very unlikely to give up all its nukes and missiles, but appears willing to trade some weapons limits for some sanctions relief. Reaching a deal won’t be easy, but it will be impossible unless the parties start talking. Which is why it is important for the South to take up this opportunity and for Washington to back the ROK’s effort.
Peace is in the interest of North and South Korea, China and the U.S. Neither war nor sanctions are likely to deliver a stable and secure peninsula. Hence Seoul should accept the North’s apparent invitation to parlay. But President Moon should do so without illusion or expectation. That would be a fitting coda to his presidency.
A 1945 Contributing Editor, Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of several books, including Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations with North and South Korea.
12. Hwasong-8: Does North Korea Really Have a Hypersonic Missile?
We just do not know yet.
Hwasong-8: Does North Korea Really Have a Hypersonic Missile?
North Korea made news this week with its latest missile launch, this time claiming that it had fired a “hypersonic missile,” per CNN and countless outlets on the Korean Peninsula. It’s called the Hwasong-8 missile, according to an announcement by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
CNN also quoted experts as stating that the missile could “change the equation” in the region.
“A hypersonic missile that can defeat advanced missile-defense systems is a game-changer if a nuclear warhead is mated to it,” said Drew Thompson, a former US Defense Department official and a visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, told CNN. However, Thompson added that “it’s a huge if.”
Indeed, South Korea is saying that the missile fired this week is likely in “an early stage of development.”
According to a report by the Yonhap News Agency, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff say the missile is in such an early stage that it “can be intercepted by South Korean and U.S. military assets.” In addition, the missile appeared to fly at Mach 3, while “hypersonic” typically means the missile was flying at least Mach 5.
“Given the detected speed and other features of the ‘hypersonic missile’ North Korea said it test-fired yesterday, it appears to be at an early stage of development that would require considerable time for actual deployment,” the South Korean Joint Chiefs said in a statement, reported by Yonhap. “South Korea and the U.S. were monitoring North Korea’s test launch under a close coordination.”
The U.S. national security establishment, both at the State Department and Pentagon, has also condemned the launch.
“We do condemn the DPRK’s missile launches. These missile launches are in violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions. We know that they pose a threat to DPRK’s neighbors and other members of the international community,” a State Department spokesman said during a briefing this week, per the Korea Times. State also reiterated that the Biden Administration remains committing to a restart of diplomacy with the North Koreans.
“The launches are in violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions, and these activities highlight the destabilizing impact of the DPRK’s illicit weapons program,” Defense Department spokesman John Kirby said this week, also according to Korea Times. “It’s about making sure that our missile defense system, wherever it’s deployed, is effective and capable, and we routinely test and experiment and try to improve that system on a daily basis.”
Stephen Silver is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
13. Programme of Work | United Nations Security Council
The UN Security Council is holding a closed door meeting on north Korea today.
Programme of Work | United Nations Security Council
PROGRAMME OF MEETINGS AND AGENDA
SCHEDULED MEETINGS
Thursday, 30 September 2021
SECURITY COUNCIL
10.00 a.m. - 8870th meeting - Security Council Chamber
1. Adoption of the agenda
2. The situation in Libya
- Letter dated 6 August 2021 from the Secretary-General addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2021/716)
- Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (S/2021/752)
Morning* - Consultations of the whole (closed) - Security Council Chamber
- Non-proliferation/DPRK
- Other matters
_____________
*To be held following the adjournment of the 8870th meeting.
Note: Security Council open VTCs will be broadcast live, and the recordings will be posted on the Security Council’s website. Written versions of the statements delivered at open VTCs by briefers, Council members and participating States will be published in official documents of the Security Council, if requested. Further information on the Security Council’s recent activities is also available here.
14. North Korea: the rise and rise of ‘first sister’ Kim Yo-jong
Some background on the evil woman. Remember she is personally sanctioned for human rights abuses among others.
North Korea: the rise and rise of ‘first sister’ Kim Yo-jong
When the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, called for an end to the war on the Korea peninsula recently, the initial response was a rebuff from North Korea’s vice foreign minister. This has been the standard response from Pyongyang whenever the idea has been raised of turning the 1953 armistice between the two warring Koreas into an actual peace treaty.
So it was something of a surprise when, the following day, a rather warmer message emerged from Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, who declared the idea “admirable”. She specified a number of pre-conditions which would need to be met, though:
What needs to be dropped is the double-dealing attitudes, illogical prejudice, bad habits and hostile stand of justifying their own acts while faulting our just exercise of the right to self-defence.
This is the sort of message one would usually expect to come from Kim Jong-un himself, so it prompted a round of discussion from the media’s Korea watchers as to how much weight the world can give a statement from his younger sister.
Who is Kim Yo-jong?
The supreme leader’s sister first came to international attention in 2018, when she became the first member of North Korea’s Kim dynasty to visit South Korea in an official capacity. She was part of the nation’s delegation to the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, at which the two countries competed as one team. She held a meeting with President Moon and appeared in photo opportunities alongside US Vice President Mike Pence and the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe. Footage of her dominated coverage in North Korea.
Following what was reported as her diplomatic triumph at the Winter Olympics, her profile grew as she met with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, and was present at all three face-to-face meetings between her brother and US President Donald Trump.
Little is known about Kim Yo-jong’s childhood, though – even her date of birth is clouded in uncertainty. She is the youngest child of former supreme leader Kim Jong-il’s relationship with Ko Yong-hui, who was originally from Japan and thus would have been regarded as being from a lower caste in Korea’s complex “songbun” system if Kim Jong-il had not removed the official record about her origin. Kim Yo-jong is understood to have attended the same private school with her elder brother in Bern, Switzerland, after which she attended Kim Il-sung University in Pyongyang, where she studied computer science.
By 2009, Kim Jong-il’s ill-health made the succession a matter of urgent debate and it became increasingly clear that Kim Jong-un was being groomed to take over the leadership on his death. But at Kim Jong-il’s funeral, Kim Yo-jong was photographed alongside senior family members.
She has twice been elevated to the politburo, in 2017 to 2019 and 2020 to 2021. In addition, she is also a leader of the Propaganda and Agitation Department, in which capacity she has boosted the cult of personality surrounding her brother as well as making regular statements about North Korean foreign relations.
She is believed to be married to Choe Song, the younger son of the Korean Workers’ Party secretary, Choe Ryong Hae, which gives her another source of political power.
Heir apparent?
How much power does Kim Yo-jong actually wield? One incident from June 2020 shows the extent to which she can exercise her will in North Korea. In retaliation for South Korean defectors’ use of balloons to drop propaganda leaflets into the North, she warned that she had ordered the department in charge of inter-Korean affairs to “decisively carry out the next action”, adding that: “Before long, a tragic scene of the useless north-south joint liaison office completely collapsed would be seen.”
The following day the building was blown up, suggesting that when Kim Yo-jong orders something, it happens.
Another interesting episode can cast some light over power relations between herself and her brother. In March 2020, Kim Yo-jong issued her first official statement, lashing out at South Korea’s presidential office, the so-called Blue House, which had called on the North to halt its live fire exercises. She referred to the leadership as “a mere child” and “a burnt child dreading fire”.
Two days later Kim Jong-un sent a message of condolence over the outbreak of COVID-19 in the South. This “underlined his unwavering friendship and trust toward President Moon and said that he will continue to quietly send his best wishes for President Moon to overcome”. The message had Korea watchers confused as to whether the siblings were at loggerheads over North-South relations or whether this was a display of “good cop-bad cop” diplomacy.
This is a family where many of the possible male contenders for power have been executed or assassinated – including Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-un’s half brother who was murdered with the nerve agent VX at Kuala Lumpur airport in Malaysia in 2017; and his uncle, Jang Song-thaek, who was reportedly executed by firing squad in 2013 after being accused of being a counter-revolutionary. So the status of Kim Yo-jong’s relationship with her brother is as scrutinised as Kim Jong-un’s physical health when it comes to if – and when – she might be in a position to challenge for ultimate power in North Korea.
Flexing her power: Kim Yo-jong arriving in Hanio, Vietnam, two days after she ordered the demolition of the inter-Korea liaison office. EPA_EFE/Thai Linh Luong
In North Korea, it seems that to achieve the leadership it’s necessary to seize the grip of the trinity power of the military, party and people. Both Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un became leading figures of the National Defence Commission (NDC) – the military – as well as the party through the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP). They had both developed their cult of personality, giving them access to the people.
Kim Yo-jong may have achieved name recognition in her capacity as a spokesperson on foreign relations and has access to power in the KWP. But she has not yet been appointed to a position at the NDC. If that happens any time soon, it might be a sign that North Korea is preparing for its first woman leader.
15. North Korean Missiles, Gestures Toward Seoul Seen as Latest Bid for Sanctions Relief
Blackmail diplomacy - the use of increased tensions, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions.
North Korean Missiles, Gestures Toward Seoul Seen as Latest Bid for Sanctions Relief
Analysts say that Pyongyang is trying everything it can to get sanctions relief.
North Korea has served up a mix of three missile tests in a month, boilerplate harsh criticism of the U.S., and rare semi-conciliatory words from the sister of leader Kim Jong Un – all aimed at getting out from under international economic sanctions, analysts say.
The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Wednesday that Pyongyang tested a new hypersonic missile, suggesting that it could deliver a nuclear payload. The test followed the launch of long-range cruise missiles capable of hitting Japan and a ballistic missile fired from a train.
Desperate for relief from international sanctions over its nuclear and weapons programs, Pyongyang is stepping up pressure on Washington and Seoul over denuclearization negotiations that have been stalled since the failed Hanoi Summit between leaders of the U.S. and North Korea in Feb. 2019.
The country’s fragile economy has been laid low by border closures and the suspension of all trade with China since Jan. 2020 to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Pyongyang also faces strict trade sanctions imposed by the U.S. as well as the UN Security Council over its multiple nuclear and missile tests.
Tuesday’s hypersonic missile launch came shortly before Pyongyang’s envoy to the United Nations blamed the nuclear dispute and inter-Korean tensions on Washington, saying the “main root cause lies in the hostile policy towards the DPRK.”
In this photo released by the United Nations, North Korea's U.N. Ambassador Kim Song speaks during the 76th session of the United Nations
We have traversed an inevitable course of history as the U.S., the biggest nuclear power in the world, has been posing nuclear threats, antagonizing the DPRK for more than 70 years,” envoy Kim Song told the UN General Assembly.
The missile and verbal barrages came as Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, broke a long string of shrill attacks on Seoul with comments that appeared to welcome South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s recent call for the international community to “mobilize its strengths for the end of-war declaration on the Korean Peninsula.”
“I felt that the atmosphere of the South Korean public desiring to recover the inter-Korean relations from a deadlock and achieve peaceful stability as soon as possible is irresistibly strong. We, too, have the same desire,” Kim Yo Jong said in a statement.
Kim Jong Un’s inexperienced-but-fast-rising sister had earlier mocked Moon as a “parrot raised by America,” and criticized other speeches by the South Korean president as “sophism full of shamelessness and impudence.”
However, using the same phrase as her country’s UN envoy, Kim Yo Jong said that Seoul needed to drop its “hostile policy” to pave the way for an improvement in relations.
“I won't predict here what will come: a balmy breeze or a storm,” she said.
U.S. based analysts told RFA’s Korean service that Kim Yo Jong was focused not so much on Moon as on reaching Washington through Seoul.
“North Korea is still trying to figure out how to engage the U.S. they have they've tried everything they can. They tried behaving themselves. They tried cruise missile and short-range missile tests,” said Ken Gause of the Virginia-based CNA think tank.
“Don't be confused about what they're talking about it in terms of some sort of security pact or end of the Korean War or anything. That's not what this is about. This is about sanctions relief,” Gause said.
The RAND Corporation’s Soo Kim said North Korea’s sincerity about wanting good relations with the South was “questionable.”
An undated photo of Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Credit: Yonhap News
“The Moon administration may seek to persuade the U.S. to change its position on sanctions relief, but it’s unclear how receptive Washington will be to these efforts. We’ve not seen any North Korean behavior that warrants or merits sanctions relief -- in fact, we’ve seen the opposite in recent weeks,” she told RFA.
“So for the Biden administration to consider sanctions relief would, at this point, be rewarding North Korea’s bad behavior and even validating to Kim the efficacy of his actions,” she said.
A former U.S. ambassador to South Korea told RFA that Kim Yo Jong in her statements sidestepped the denuclearization issue entirely and called on the U.S. and South Korea to abandon what she called “hostile policies.”
“While there are reasons to be skeptical of the North's intentions, Kim Yo Jong's remarks and her comments on an end-of-war declaration could represent an opportunity for progress,” said Alexander Vershbow, who was the U.S. envoy to Seoul from 2005 to 2008.
“Seoul and Washington need to forge a unified response and explore whether the North is ready to resume dialogue, including on denuclearization, on mutually acceptable terms,” he said.
A White House spokesperson told RFA that the hypersonic missile launch was a violation of resolutions by the UN Security Council and said Washington would consult with allies on next steps.
“We are prepared to meet with the DPRK without preconditions. We hope the DPRK will respond positively to our outreach,” said a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department.
Rep. Michael McCaul said the launch was the “Kim regime’s latest ploy.”
“North Korea’s nuclear belligerence is what drives instability on the Korean peninsula - not actions by the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and other partners to defend ourselves,” said McCaul.
“Agreeing to demands for concessions, right after North Korea restarted plutonium production and weapons testing, would be telling the Kim regime that nuclear belligerence achieves results,” he said.
Reported by Sangmin Lee and Hye Jun Seo, RFA’s Korean Service. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
16. Security Situation on The Korean Peninsula
The video of a talk I gave at the Institute of World Politics. It is a one hour lecture and 30 minutes of Q&A.
Security Situation on The Korean Peninsula
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This event is sponsored by the Asia Initiative Lecture Series at The Institute of World Politics.
About the lecture: Colonel David S. Maxwell will discuss the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime, why the regime poses a threat to the Republic of Korea, and why it is in the US national interest to ensure there is a strong ROK/US alliance to deter war. He will outline the “Big Five” — war, regime collapse, human rights, asymmetric threats, and unification. He will underline that the only way the world will see an end to the North’s nuclear program, threats, human rights abuses, and crimes against humanity is through unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea.
About the speaker: David S. Maxwell is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).* He is a 30-year veteran of the US Army, retiring as a Special Forces Colonel with his final assignment teaching national security at the National War College. He served over 20 years in Asia, primarily in Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. Colonel Maxwell served on the ROK/US Combined Forces Command staff and the Special Operations Command Korea. He is the co-author of the first CONPLAN 5029, the plan for North Korean Instability and Regime Collapse. He commanded the Joint Special Operations Task Force Philippines and was the G3 at the US Army Special Operations Command. Following retirement, he served as the Associate Director of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He is on the Board of Directors of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, the International Council of Korean Studies, the Council on Korean-US Security Studies, the Special Operations Research Association, the OSS Society, and the Small Wars Journal. He earned a B.A. in political science from Miami University, and an M.A. in Military Arts and Science from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College and from the School of Advanced Military Studies, and an M.S. in National Security Studies from the National War College. Colonel Maxwell has taught Unconventional Warfare and Special Operations for Policy Makers and Strategists at graduate schools in the DC area.
* FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
