As the shock and hysteria has moderated, more people are acclimating and solidifying their long-term belief and commitment to our great city. Contrary to common opinion, market activity has been resuscitated, particularly below $1.5-2M levels where activity is robust. However, even pockets of the luxury market are seeing deals, as people are capitalizing on the favorable market conditions. One of the primary drivers are interest rates.
Two years ago it would have cost you $61,692/year to borrow $1M. Today you would save nearly $12K per year, as it would only cost $49,776. Interest rates are historically low and according to the Fed’s recent announcement will likely remain low until 2022. In the Fall of 2018 the 30-year jumbo fixed rate mortgage was approximately 4.625%; it's currently hovering around 2.875% (see mortgage rates below). Motivated buyers are being pre-approved to identify what they can afford. If you need lender suggestions, please let me know.
Buyers also have many more options to choose from. When the crisis started, sellers pulled their listing from the marketplace, dropping inventory to 5,031 by mid-May, down from what would typically be around 7,500 (courtesy of UrbanDigs) . However, it has now swelled to 8,655, 24% above last year at this time, but, for perspective, shy of the approximate 10,000 after the financial crisis (courtesy Miller Samuel Inc.) .
Pricing has become favorable and negotiability is substantial. Deals that were consummated post-Covid are beginning to close; consequently, we are learning the effects of the crisis on our marketplace. Between the deals which have actually closed and industry consensus, negotiability is around 6-7% off asking prices. Buyers who were hoping for larger spreads forget the marketplace had already experienced 4-5 years of consistent decline. Note: those declines were primarily driven by unfavorable real estate policy including, but not limited to: the reduction in the SALT (state and local tax deductions), increases in the mansion and transfer taxes, rent regulations on multi-family properties and limits on LLC purchases.
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Negotiability is tighter at lower price points where deal volume is stronger and widens as you go up the price scale. The luxury and super-luxury sectors are off closer to 10% and even more. While some sellers refuse to accept this reality, they will have to acquiesce, as appraisals will begin to reflect these new levels and place downward pressure on prices.
Historically it is these moments of dislocation, where people have made the best investments. Those, with the wherewithal, who are looking to upgrade are being served a silver platter. My buyers are pre-approved, with attorneys in place, making offers and identifying deals that work for them. If you want or need to be equally prepared, let me know, as I am here to get you to that place. Everyone’s situation is unique and should be evaluated independently. Likewise, each neighborhood is experiencing its own unique transition, so must also be studied independently.
These are all the major considerations both buyers and sellers are sorting through. If not for a Presidential election year, activity in the second half of 2020 would be even greater. Once the certainty of knowing who our leader will be, the market will begin to chug along at a faster pace. Note: it is my opinion that by the 21-22 school year (one year from now), we will be much closer to a normal way of life. That said, I believe that next Spring/Summer will become very busy with people scrambling to get situated prior to the Fall semester. Consider whether you want to get caught up in that potential frenzy.
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See you around campus.... |
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Click the button above to see the latest edition of our post-lockdown deals report, as of 9/15/20. The purpose of the report is to give you verified pricing data on deals negotiated after the NYS lockdown began on March 22nd. This is not meant to be a count of deals signed since the lockdown, as many of those haven’t closed yet.
To be included, a sale must meet all the following criteria:
1) Listed through the RLS, by all firms.
2) Have a contract signed after March 22, 2020
3) Closed and recorded on ACRIS
The spreadsheet, accessible through the above link, is a running total we add to each week. Keep in mind some sales may drop off if we find out the contract signed date was incorrect.
Below is a comparison of the data in this report to the same period last year:
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each. |
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With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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Three Palatial Penthouses Surrounded by Unparalleled Views
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * |
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The 30 Year Fixed Jumbo Mortgage
Has Dropped Below 3%
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Example of Purchasing Power
This Year vs. 18 months ago
Interest Rates:
Example below reflects today's 30 year fixed rate of 3.000% vs. rates of 4.625%, just two years ago.
$1M borrowed at 3.000% = $4,216/month
$1M borrowed at 4.625% = $5,141/month
That is a difference of $925/month or $11,100/year.
Alternatively, we could look at it this way:
At 3.000%, $4,216/month will afford you a $1M mortgage.
At 4.625%, $4,216/month only afforded you a $820,000 mortgage.
That is virtually 20% more purchasing power than 2 years ago, just because of interest rates.
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales:
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
Other Markets:
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Awol Erizku:
Mystic Parallax
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The FLAG Art Foundation is pleased to present Mystic Parallax, a solo exhibition by multidisciplinary artist Awol Erizku, on view September 26-November 14, 2020, on the 9th floor. Erizku engages an Afrocentric perspective to a new body of photo-based works, sculpture, drawings made from incense smoke and ash, and a series of short films, which act as a counter-narrative to the historically westernized discourse on African and African American culture.
Central to the new works are signifiers rooted in Trap music and Islam that employ contronyms as a visual and linguistic device to explore new dimensions in the evolving lexicon on objects, music, and prose. Throughout the exhibition, Erizku combines expropriated and commodified Aethiopean artifacts, contemporary African American iconography, and references to photography, media, and image creation. Fire, both as a medium and symbolic, Benu[1]-like element, serves as a catalyst for metamorphosis and transfiguration, creating a space for historical interventions, and rejuvenating fossilized concepts and visual language.
The title Mystic Parallax suggests alternative readings and cross-cultural perspectives from multiple vantage points, inviting viewers to participate in an open-ended investigation into a constellation of ideas. The exhibition aims to construct a new paradigm; a break from master narratives and Eurocentric intellectual gate-keepers; the treatment of Africa as a monolith; mythopoeia[2]; post-structuralism; culture as commodity; and impact of language on the construction of meaning. Read more.
Mystic Parallax is Erizku’s second solo exhibition and the eighth time FLAG has worked with the artist since 2011. Join the conversation online and follow FLAG’s Instagram ( @flagartfoundation) and Twitter ( @FLAGartNYC). |
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Daniel Boulud Forges Ahead With Plans to Open Massive Midtown Restaurant Next Year
The seafood-focused restaurant will seat up to 120 people at full capacity and is located inside Midtown skyscraper One Vanderbilt by Tanay Warerkar @TanayWarerkar
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Fine dining chef and restaurateur Daniel Boulud has revealed new details about his restaurant inside the massive Midtown skyscraper by Grand Central Terminal, One Vanderbilt. Le Pavillon — named after the famed French restaurant in New York City that closed in the ‘70s — is set to debut to debut early next year, and will focus on seafood, according to the New York Times, which first reported on the opening.
“I don’t have a seafood restaurant in New York, so I’m excited to be doing this,” Boulud tells the Times. Read more. |
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Private Online Cooking Classes by Rob |
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Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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The Food Humorist©, is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
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* G R A F F I T I - Cooking @ Home * |
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami |
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
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Brown Harris Stevens
130 Fifth Avenue, 2nd Floor,
New York, NY 10011
(917) 701 3907
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