ACF DEWS Webinar Recap
May 26, 2020
A Summary of Drought Conditions from the:

 Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Drought Assessment Webinar
The ACF Basin contains D0 and D1 according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor  (as of 5/19/2020).  

Our next briefing will be Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 1 pm ET. 
The recorded webinar can be found here .
Current Drought Status
Approximately 12.54% of the ACF Basin is in D1 (Moderate Drought), and 4.23% is in D0 (Abnormally Dry) according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 5/19/2020).
82.96% of the ACF Basin is free of dry or drought conditions.
Drought Roller Coaster
Since mid-April, the lower ACF Basin and Florida as a whole, have experienced undulating D0, D1, and D2 conditions, changing substantially on a week-to-week basis.
90-Day Rainfall Departures From Normal
The past 90 days have seen much-above normal to even excessive rainfall in most of Georgia and Alabama with the exception of extreme southern Alabama where dry condition persist. The Florida panhandle has experienced dry conditions where drought has set in.
2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
A strong 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook favoring above-normal tropical activity with a 60% chance for above-normal activity and a 30% chance for normal activity. This forecast favors La Nina conditions.

*Note: Major Hurricanes include Category 3 and above
Real-time Streamflow
Streamflow in the ACF basin currently range from the high to much below normal range; however, the majority of the streamflows are ranging from above normal to normal.

Chattahoochee River Near Cornelia
28-Day Average Streamflows
28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the above normal to normal range.

28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the above normal to normal range.

28-day average streamflow for the Apalachicola River are currently in the above normal range.
(for more info:  http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )
Real-Time Groundwater Conditions
Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from much above normal to much below normal, with the majority of stations in the above normal range. ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )
ACF Reservoir Conditions
(as of 5/26/2020) 

Inflows into all USACE ACF Basin projects are normal. Lanier is operating above guide curve while W.F. George and West Point are operating in Zone 1. The ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage is in Zone 1 is expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
1-Month & 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts
The 1-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts above normal flow conditions.
The 3-month mean daily streamflow forecast also predicts above normal flows throughout the ACF basin.
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
 
ACF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks

  • Coastal dryness along the FL Panhandle contributed to a series of damaging wildfires

  • Drought has been up and down along the Florida Panhandle (and the rest of the State).

  • Rainfall across the ACF has been spotty over the last 30 days, but generally near normal

  • 90-day deficits remain along the coastal lower ACF, much above normal in GA and AL

  • 7-day forecast for unsettled weather, but rainfall amounts in the 1-2 inch range

  • Pacific Ocean has quickly transitioned to cooler than normal, chances for La Nina will be increasing

  • NOAA seasonal hurricane forecast strongly favors above normal activity

  • CPC seasonal forecast (June - July) favors higher chances for warm temperature and above normal rainfall across the southern US

  • Drought to improve with the Florida rainy season, ACF likely to remain drought-free


Alabama Drought Status

  • Focus of rainfall deficits continue to center in southwest Alabama (primarily Mobile and Baldwin Counties)

  • Forecast for next few days consists of widely scattered showers

  • No reported drought or water availability issues

  • OWR continues to monitor conditions


Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts

  • Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the high to much below normal range.

  • No portions of the ACF Basin are currently ranked as below normal flow for the 7-day average streamflow.

  • 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the above normal to normal range.

  • 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the above normal to normal range.

  • Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from much above normal to much below normal, with the majority of stations in the above normal range.

  • 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal

  • 3 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal


ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions

  • Inflows into the projects are above normal.

  • Lanier is operating above guide curve.

  • WF George and West Point are operating in Zone 1.

  • Expect projects to approach guide curve over the next few weeks as summer refill elevations..

  • The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.


Upcoming NIDIS Events

June 19 10-10:45 ET - Southeast Climate Webinar

Southeast DEWS Survey


Acknowledgments 
 
Speakers

David Zierden, FSU
Tom Littlepage, ADECA OWR
Paul Ankcorn, USGS
Todd Hamill, SERFC
Troy Ephriam, USACE-Mobile District
Meredith Muth, NOAA NIDIS

Additional Information Provided by:

Victor Murphy, NOAA NWS

Summary prepared by:

Rachel McGuire, Auburn University 

Resources

General Drought Information:

Drought Impact Reporter:

Southeast Climate Perspectives Map

General Climate and El Niño Information:
  
Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting

Groundwater Monitoring
 
The Complete Set of Briefing Slides From the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:

Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center:
To join the ACF mailing list or for webinar-related questions,
please contact: 

Rachel McGuire 
334 844 1163