A Strong Start
Sales of Lake Keowee Homes (both waterfront and interior homes in communities that share a boundary with the lake) showed a strong start entering 2020. Compared to the previous year, 2019, sales in January, February and March were up 23%, 120% an 59% respectively. Overall, total 1Q2020 sales were 57% greater than those experienced in the same quarter a year ago. Under nearly any scenario, this velocity of sales could not be maintained as the offered inventory just wasn't out there.
Actual vs 2020 Market Prediction Model
However, there was still momentum entering April 2020. But like the pandemic curve, the sales curve was beginning to flatten; at least compared to my 2020 Market Prediction Model . During the quarter, there was a dramatic shift in showing volume. On Wednesday, March 11 (nationally) showings of properties to prospective Buyers were occurring at a rate 30% higher than experienced a year earlier. That rate was consistent with the sales volume increases noted above. Eight days later on Thursday, March 19, showings had dropped to become equal to that of 2019. By Tuesday, April 13, less than a month later, showings were running 47% below the comparable rate in 2019. Buyers had been locked-in where they were living and Sellers generally didn't really want strangers walking through their homes. No showings means essentially no sales and the green (actual sales) curve above is expected to dip well below the red (2020 Model) curve in the months to come.
Waterfront Home Market Segment
Below about $1,500,000 the waterfront home market remains favorable to Sellers. Above, that price point, its favorable to Buyers. This crossover point has been marching up-market for several years. Inventory has been consumed in the vicinity of $900,000 where there has been a great hunger for waterfront homes. They are not available now. But there is a substantial number of homes priced nearby at $1,000,000 that are. Those $1,000,000 homes will be sold at less of a discount and fairly rapidly. Prices are rising in that segment.
Interior Home Market Segment
The market for interior homes around Lake Keowee is less vigorous but generally favorable to Sellers below $800,000. Homes priced around $300,0000 sell rapidly. Above $800,000, the market is generally favorable to Buyers and, although the inventory is not all that high, time on-market can be long (12 to 36 months).
Market Trend and Forecast
In 2019 the market totaled $248,100,000 in sales. That was an overall growth of 3.21% over 2018 and a continuation of period of year-over-year market growth that began in 2012. Based on my current 2020 Market Prediction Model , I'm forecasting a 10% decrease in sales volume compared to 2019 due to the shock of the pandemic and the constraint of limited inventory. But the effect will be short term. A paradigm shift is occurring driving buyers into this market from other more densely populated regions of the country predominantly in the northeastern corridor and northern mid-western states. The availability of a reasonably strong telecommunication infrastructure in the southeast will facilitate this migration of both retirees and mid to upper level executives that are able to work virtually. Our Mountain Lakes Region and especially the Lake Keowee market will benefit from this movement.

For what this all means to you personally whether you're buying, selling or simply exploring, just give me a call at 864-710-5224. It's free!
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Photo © 2019 Bill Koepnick used with permission
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Eldon Blust
Associate Broker
iPhone: 864-710-5224
email: eldon_blust@bellsouth.net

© 2020 Eldon Blust