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Daily News on the Southeast Asian Region
11 May 2020
(pm) - 12 May 2020 (am)
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Greetings
This issue of Daily News Alert includes
a citation attributed to
Dr Le Hong Hiep, Fellow
, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. You can click on
his name to go to the article directly.
This is a daily information alert service containing articles and commentaries from international and regional news sources. The alert is released every Monday to Friday, focussing on Southeast Asia and special topics relevant to ISEAS' research interests. You can click on any of the links below to directly access the subject of your immediate interest. If you think your friends and colleagues would find this alert useful, please invite them to
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Country Studies
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Southeast Asia Countries
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Brunei Darussalam
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Singapore
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Timor-Leste (East Timor)
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Region
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Special Interests (A-Z)
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Cambodia
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Potential EU 'blacklisting' most dangerous threat to local economy: Van David, a senior associate at PLATFORM IMPACT - a Cambodian business and investment firm - told Khmer Times that because Cambodia is a narrow and not a broad-based economy, an EU "blacklist" would have a devastating economic impact. He added, that the potential listing should be considered the biggest current economic threat to the country, more than the Everything but Arms (EBA) trade deal partial withdrawal and COVID-19 pandemic.
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Indonesia
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Indonesia Condemns Abuse of Its Fishermen on Chinese Boats: Indonesia's government on Sunday condemned what it called the "inhuman" treatment of its nationals by a Chinese fishing company that allegedly kept Indonesian fishermen as virtual slaves, leading to the deaths of at least three of them. Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi told a video conference from the capital, Jakarta, that 49 Indonesian fishermen, ranging from 19 to 24 years old, were forced to work an average of over 18 hours a day on at least four Chinese fishing boats. Marsudi said some of the fishermen were either not paid at all or did not receive the amount they had agreed to.
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OPINION: Indonesia will emerge out of pandemic highly indebted. Every rupiah counts: Today, the debt trauma is reflected in Indonesia's debt levels. Micro and small businesses remain hesitant to take up loans with most of their funding coming from their own pockets and a small fraction getting bank loans. At 30.2 percent, Indonesia's debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than the internationally accepted norm of 60 percent. The new debt issuance will likely boost the ratio to less than 40 percent, economists estimated. Compare that with 238 percent in Japan or 107 percent in the US.
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Sluggish manufacturing sector needs reform badly: Analysts: Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) senior economist Aviliani expressed similar views. The downward trend in Indonesia's manufacturing industry could carry on even after the crisis ends if there are no structural changes within the industry.
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COVID-19: Financial and political grounding for privileged youngsters? Perhaps this crisis can serve as a grounding for these idealistic and self-righteous youngsters for the first time. Growing up sheltered amid a middle-class boom under the New Order, unlike students in Australia and the US, they had everything covered by their parents. Though many of their Indonesian counterparts also worked in stores and took other jobs while in college, the fortunate few among Indonesia's young could relatively take financial security for granted.
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RI-Australia to implement CEPA on July 5: Despite relying heavily on household spending to grow the economy, Indonesia seeks to attract more investment from Australia through the IA-CEPA, especially in the higher education, vocational education, healthcare, construction, energy, mining and tourism sectors. In the first quarter of the year, foreign investment from Australia reached $86 million with 321 projects, according to BKPM data.
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Government issues regulation on economic recovery program, focuses on SOEs, MSMEs: The ministry's presentation material showed that the government allocated Rp 63.01 trillion in tax incentives for businesses and Rp 6 trillion in MSMEs new loans guarantee. The government also set aside Rp 25 trillion in "tourism support", which will be in the form of airfare and hotel discounts, as well as food vouchers via online applications, among other things.
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Indonesia Walks a Fine Line Between Bailouts, Downgrades: The key reason is the pile of debt at state-owned enterprises that President Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, has built up since taking office in 2014. As the coronavirus outbreak forces SOE defaults and restructuring to play out on the international stage, investors are now wondering whether Jakarta - which still enjoys an investment-grade rating - can keep its distance and avoid being dragged into one bailout after another.
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The Factors Behind the Disturbing 'Burial at Sea' of Indonesian Migrant Fishers: This case sheds light on the exploitation and mistreatment of foreign workers, particularly in the fishing industry. It also unveils significant loopholes in the existing protection systems of the stakeholders involved: Indonesia, China, and South Korea. Who should be responsible for protecting Indonesian workers on a vessel owned by a Chinese company caught operating illegally in South Korean water?
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Global Health Security: COVID-19 and Its Impacts - Jokowi's War on Pandemic: Growing Dependence on TNI? FOLLOWING THE declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic as a national disaster, President Joko Widodo ("Jokowi") has granted the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) a broader authority to handle the outbreak. Doni Monardo, an active three-star Army general who assumed the position of head of BNPB in 2019 before the pandemic broke out, was appointed to lead the COVID-19 Task Force. His position as head of BNPB despite being in active military service is likely to shape the country's strategy in containing the pandemic.
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Laos
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MRC to review details of Laos' dam: MRC statement yesterday said the notification submitted to the MRC Secretariat by the Lao government included a set of engineering documents and technical feasibility study, documents on the [Sanakham hydropower] project's social and environmental impact assessments and sediment and fisheries study... According to the notification, the project's construction is expected to begin this year and finish in 2028, the year when commercial operations are also set to begin.
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Govt permits businesses to reopen: Referring to a forecast by the National Economic Research Institute and National Statistics Centre, Dr Kikeo said economic growth was predicted at 3.3-3.6 percent this year. This would severely cut the average annual growth rate of 7.2 percent targeted in the current five-year economic development plan, which would now be revised downwards to 5.9 percent.
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China's Belt and Road keeps steaming ahead in Laos: Under fire for bullying neighbors in the South China Sea, China is patting itself on the back for the progress it is making on the 411-kilometer China-Laos railway through a sparsely populated nation that has barely been touched by the Covid-19 pandemic. The official Xinhua News Agency reported on April 25 that all the beams are now in place for the 1,458-meter Luang Prabang cross-Mekong super-bridge, one of the biggest undertakings on a track that includes 169 other bridges and 72 mountain-blasting tunnels.
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Malaysia
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Tackling pandemic in Malaysia: Politicking gets in the way: FEW Malaysians were surprised when the government's decision last week to ease conditionally its Movement Control Order (MCO) ran aground almost immediately on the shoals of political reality. Although the MCO is to remain in force until June 9, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin wanted to...
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Mukhriz's rule in Kedah to end today?The fall of Mukhriz Mahathir in Kedah is imminent, with at least two Pakatan Harapan (PH) assemblymen set to announce that they no longer support the menteri besar. Two PKR assemblymen, Robert Ling Kui Ee (Sidam) and Azman Nasarudin (Lunas), are expected to make a joint announcement today, in what could be an immediate blow to the fragile majority keeping Mukhriz in power.
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What long lines at pawnshops tell us: The long lines outside pawnshops in the Klang Valley on the first day of the conditional movement control order (CMCO) on May 4 and a few days after that, pictures of which went viral on social media, are a vivid reminder that more assistance is needed for the B40 and even M40 households. Economists and analysts think the phenomenon demonstrates that more measures are needed to mitigate the effects of lost or reduced income. The situation is especially acute for the self-employed or those who rely on daily wages such as petty traders, hawkers, taxi drivers, cleaners, labourers and sub-contractors.
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Source: PAS' Jeneri rep favourite to take over as Kedah MB: Perikatan Nasional (PN) is seeking to tighten its grip on the Kedah state assembly by trying to attract more Bersatu assemblypersons who have thus far been in support of Mukhriz Mahathir's leadership, according to a source.
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PKR reps quit, Kedah falls to PN: PKR's Sidam representative Dr Robert Ling Kui Ee and Lunas representative Azman Nasrudin have announced their resignation from the party, resulting in Pakatan Harapan losing power in Kedah. ... Azman said they were now independent representatives that supported Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and the formation of a new Perikatan Nasional state government.
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'Umno part of Perikatan but not a component party': On why Umno is not joining Perikatan as its component party, Ahmad Zahid said Umno had always been the backbone of a political coalition. ... Asked if there is a possibility for Umno to have links with Bersatu like its current cooperation with PAS, the Umno president said: "That is why I have mentioned a few times in this interview that our doors are always open for discussions and possibilities."
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Muhyiddin's camp set to cast aside Mahathir and son: The days of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his son Mukhriz Mahathir as leaders of the ruling Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia they co-founded are numbered, as Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin's faction has lost patience with the duo who continue to cling to the ousted Pakatan Harapan (PH). Not only is the party set to confirm that the two leaders are no longer members, but plans to oust Datuk Seri Mukhriz as Kedah chief minister and install a state government aligned to Tan Sri Muhyiddin's loose Perikatan Nasional (PN) pact are also nearly complete.
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Berada dalam PN, UMNO tiada kuasa penuh - Ahmad Zahid [In PN, Umno does not have full power - Ahmad Zahid]: UMNO tidak berbangga berada dalam kerajaan Perikatan Nasional (PN) kerana menganggap belum ada kuasa penuh seperti sebelum Pilihan Raya Umum Ke-14 (PRU-14). Presidennya, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, sebaliknya mendakwa sokongan UMNO dalam PN adalah untuk menjatuhkan kerajaan Pakatan Harapan (PH).
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Bersihkan UMNO, sebelum kita dibersihkan rakyat [Clean up Umno, before the people clean us up]: Selepas pembentukan PN, ahli di peringkat akar umbi mula menjadi keliru dan seolah-olah kehilangan arah. Kerjasama UMNO dan PAS sudah tidak seperti sebelum ini. ...
Saban hari ahli UMNO di peringkat bawahan menunggu penjelasan daripada kepemimpinan tertinggi parti. Ramai semakin gelisah dengan tujuan, objektif dan matlamat sebenar UMNO dan PAS melibatkan diri dalam PN. Tidak ada penerangan dan pendirian yang jelas daripada kepimpinan parti terutamanya daripada Pemimpin Tertinggi UMNO sendiri.
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PPBM leaders wanted to dump DAP, Dr M says on PH collapse: Former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad says PPBM leaders had pushed for the party's exit from Pakatan Harapan (PH) because of its fellow component DAP. In a video released today, he said PPBM leaders had pressed for the party's exit from PH, a move which he said had no basis as the coalition had given him its full support in deciding when he would leave office.
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24
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Civil society need not bow to politicians: Before the 14th general election, there were some civil society leaders who tactically threw their support behind PH and its choice of prime minister, whose track record is tainted with autocracy, cronyism, racism, abuse of state institutions and crackdowns on democratic demands for reform. And yet, some still harboured hope that he would change his spots under the PH banner.
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End Threats against Rohingya, Rights Groups Tell Malaysian Government: Scores of NGOs and rights groups together urged Malaysia's government on Monday to speak out in support of Rohingya Muslims and stem a surge in hate speech on social media platforms targeting the stateless refugee community from Myanmar. Meanwhile, Malaysian authorities detained about 1,000 foreign workers in a major raid in Kuala Lumpur amid fears over coronavirus infections.
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Evaluating the Penang South Reclamation (PSR) Project According to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals
[12-page PDF document]
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Myanmar
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Myanmar to launch its first satellite in 2021 with Japan's help: The satellite will be an earth observation satellite, which will be used to raise productivity in agriculture, as well as to prevent and reduce damage from disasters and monitor environmental pollution, Yukihiro Takahashi, a professor at Hokkaido University and director of the university's Space Mission Center, told Nikkei.
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Video Shows Myanmar Forces Beating Five Civilians on Navy Vessel in Rakhine State: The Myanmar military announced a partial truce on May 10, but excluded the AA amid the current armed conflict in northern Rakhine state. On May 3, the AA and two other ethnic armies that comprise the Brotherhood Alliance announced the extension of their unilateral cease-fire for another month while the government focuses on fighting the spread of COVID-19. They also requested that the government army not exclude Rakhine state from its unilateral cease-fire from May 10 to Aug. 31. Myanmar political analyst Maung Maung Soe said that the AA, which is included on the list of organizations participating in COVID-19 eradication activities, will not be able to assist in the effort without a temporary cessation of hostilities.
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Philippines
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Change and continuity in the Philippine-US-China triangle: In reality, Philippine foreign policy under Duterte is a mixture of change and continuity. Unlike his China-sceptic predecessor Benigno Aquino - who took China to international court over South China Sea disputes - Duterte made it clear that Beijing is a preferred national development partner. He also proudly told the Chinese media that the United States is an unreliable partner, hence his preference for a 'meek' and 'humble' relationship with Beijing. This signals a largely transactional approach towards the great powers.
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Thailand
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SEC forums 'insensitive': The Prayut Chan-o-cha government approved the scheme on May 7 last year, with the aim of connecting this particular part of Songkhla with three other provinces in the South where large-scale development projects are being planned. Conservationists as well as local residents are concerned that the vast scheme -- which would see a deep-sea port and various industries established in the area -- will destroy the marine resource-rich area, thereby undermining food security.
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Pro-democracy activists gather in force at funeral for Da Torpedo: Her funeral marked the first large pro-democracy gathering during lockdown. Many mourners dressed in red instead of black to demonstrate their determination to carry forward Da Torpedo's fight for democracy. Daranee was a journalist at Phim Thai newspaper and Sky TV before becoming a political activist after a military coup brought down the government of PM Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006.
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Vietnam
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Vietnam defies the odds on Covid-19: Quick action by the government has helped prevent widespread infection - and turned the tide of public distrust.
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Marry by 30, two children by 35: Vietnam's plan for young people to boost its economy: Media professional To Chau, 34, has been thinking about having children with her husband since they bought a home in Saigon two years ago. But she still feels unprepared, "mentally or otherwise". A government policy introduced last month, aimed at reversing declining fertility rates by encouraging young Vietnamese to marry by 30 and start having families by 35, has done little to change her mind. Vietnam, population 96 million, has introduced the policy in a bid to address a falling fertility rate and head off the social problems associated with ageing populations.
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Online shopping gets a boost in Vietnamese city: The e-commerce market in Ho Chi Minh City has developed significantly, with total online spending growth up by more than 12 per cent annually since 2015, according to the city Department of Industry and Trade's report on e-commerce development. Phạm Thành Kiên, the department's director, said enterprises in the city had enhanced digital transformation and promoted online sales.
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Joint efforts needed to protect water resources: Vietnam River Network: Vietnam News Agency speaks to Dao Trong Tu, head co-ordinator of the Vietnam River Network (VRN), on the role of social organisations and civic groups in improving the awareness and actions of the community regarding water security issues.
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Vietnam vows 5% growth in post-outbreak foreign investment pitch: Vietnam is pressing for foreign investment to defend its status as Southeast Asia's fastest-growing economy, just as the country becomes the first in the region to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic. "We must put our heads together to restart Vietnam's economy with the lifting of social distancing, to reach the target of over 5% gross domestic product growth in 2020," Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said Saturday, in defiance of a projection for 2.7% growth from the International Monetary Fund last month.
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Vietnamese Police Clash With 100 Khmer Krom Farmers in Latest Land Dispute: Vietnamese police traded blows with about 100 farmers from the ethnic Khmer Krom minority in the southern Mekong Delta region last week, the latest violent clash over land rights in the Southeast Asian country... A 2018 report by an NGO focusing on international ethnic minority rights said the Khmer Krom, ethnic Cambodians living in Vietnam, face "a long-lasting repression fed by the economic interests in the region, the religious differences with the national government and the fear from the latter of seeing a divergent and influential political force emerge."
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Party leader outlines key tasks for 12th plenum of Party Central Committee: At the on-going plenum, the PCC will discuss and decide the directions for personnel work relating to the 13th -tenure PCC. The directions will be the basis for preparing personnel for the PCC, the Politburo, the PCC Secretariat, and the PCC's Inspection Commission in the 13th tenure as well as key positions in State agencies in the 2021-2026 term, which will be done in the following PCC plenums.
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Vietnam's GDP to grow by 7% in 2020, IMF forecasts: The IMF expert said the growth is forecast to recover as containment measures are lifted, reaching 7% in 2021. It will be supported by monetary and fiscal easing, the country's relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and a gradual recovery in external demand.
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ASEAN/Southeast Asia
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Plastic piles up as pandemic sidelines Thai pollution fight: Thailand's experience serves as a warning for the region, said Wijarn Simachaya, president of the Thailand Environment Institute, a think tank. "The large increase is very concerning," Wijarn said. "What progress we've made on the campaign against single-use plastic has gone back to square one." Despite a smaller pile of general waste as the lockdown halted businesses, Thailand, which usually generates about 2 million tons of plastic waste annually, is likely to see a surge of 30 percent nationwide this year, Wijarn added.
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SE Asia seeks to cash in on Covid-19 malaise: All countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have thus far been spared the kind of Covid-19 case explosions and soaring death rates seen in the United States and Europe, thanks perhaps to the region's hotter climate, a fondness for face masks and cultural affinities for social distancing. As the lockdowns in the region are slowly being lifted (raising the possibilities of Covid-19 comebacks as witnessed in Singapore), economists and some government offices are starting to mull how to leverage ASEAN's comparatively good Covid-19 containment performance into more related FDI.
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Opinion: South-east Asia rides fourth wave of regional growth - For a decade all eyes were on China but now the focus of global growth is shifting towards south-east Asia, a patchwork of 10 nations and nearly 700m people to the south of China and east of India. If every region has a moment when the stars align - economically, demographically, geopolitically - then south-east Asia's may be now. With rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, a young demographic, sweeping digitisation, growing access to education and rising female empowerment, south-east Asia is poised to acquire a new standing in the world.
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Global Health Security: COVID-19 and Its Impacts - The ASEAN-Led Multilateral Order: Unravelling?The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has exposed deep ideological divisions and geopolitical rivalries, especially between the US and China. ASEAN once again risks getting caught in between the two contentious major powers. ASEAN's role in balancing such rivalries and managing regional cooperation is yet again being tested.
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Opinion: Coronavirus: why Asia will win the race to economic recovery - It seems that there will be stark differences between the rates of recovery in the United States, Europe including Britain, and Asia. The likely winners will be the countries which manage to come out of the crisis and return to some kind of normal with the least amount of new government debt.
This suggests the regions of Asia and Australasia have the advantage, as there are clear indications that the infection rate is under control, as seems to be the case in Vietnam and South Korea. With the likely relocation of supply chains away from China, Southeast Asia in general should benefit. However, as Japan and Singapore have discovered, second and third waves of infection can hamper the recovery, requiring restrictions to be reimposed.
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Asia Pacific
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Effective Middle Powers in Asia Pacific: Many of these middle powers - Australia, Japan, South Korea and perhaps even India and Indonesia - are at different stages of managing the pandemic, which will take up much of their attention and resources. Nevertheless, each of them has an important stake in the international system and the rules and norms that govern it. Ignoring the latter, while major powers continue to shape it along the lines of great power politics, will be to their detriment. ... Middle powers, therefore, need to not only work with each other, but also with smaller countries and regional organisations like Asean to chart a middle, inclusive path.
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2017 International Comparison Program for Asia and the Pacific: Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures - A Summary Report: This publication provides estimates of purchasing power parities (PPPs) and real expenditures for 22 economies in Asia and the Pacific. These are summary regional results from the 2017 cycle of the International Comparison Program (ICP). The report provides estimates of PPPs, real expenditures for total and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and its component expenditures derived using PPPs, and price level indexes showing relative costs of living.
[contains links to report, highlights, and datasets]
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Does COVID-19 Enable the Acceleration of Negative Global Trends? The uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic mimics the fog that engulfs any military conflict. As countries, leaders, and citizens work to deal with the crisis, what pre-existing trends are likely to gain traction? What characteristics of the pandemic could contribute to strengthening these trends? This article considers three trends: further fractures in geopolitical rivalries through conflicting narratives; rising authoritarianism; and attempts to normalise surveillance
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China's 'Wolf-Warrior Diplomacy' in Context: China's aggression has made a mockery of efforts by members of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) to adhere to a code of conduct to resolve territorial disputes in the region. That code reflects the organization's commitment to "compromise, consensus, and consultation." According to Le Hong Hiep, an expert on Vietnamese affairs at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, China's "actions not only create tensions with Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines, but also cause ASEAN members to question China's sincerity in negotiating a code of conduct for the South China Sea."
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新时期地区合作看亚洲
[Asia in the new era of regional cooperation]
:
在过去的几百年中，亚洲国家在国际机构和机制中扮演的更多是
"
参与者
"
的角色。当前，地区和世界面临的不仅是严峻的巨大健康安全危机，还有经济衰退、多边主义受到侵蚀，以及全球治理亟需改善的挑战。我们必须做出及时和正确的反应，国际合作必须要跨上新的台阶。毫无疑问，亚洲国家在这方面可以发挥建设性，甚至主导性作用。亚洲首先要建设更高水平的地区合作机制。现有的中日韩三国、东盟
──
中日韩、中国
──
东盟、区域全面经济伙伴关系（
RCEP
）等地区机制，应该更好地整合起来。
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50
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China under pressure to write off loans as countries struggle to repay debt during coronavirus crisis: "Many countries under the BRI initiative have borrowed heavily from China to invest in new projects, but the pandemic is disrupting economies and will complicate repayment plans," Kaho Yu, senior Asia analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC... Several major BRI projects - such as those in Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Pakistan - have been stalled by lockdowns, according to Simon Leung, a banking and finance partner at law firm Baker McKenzie.
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East/South China Sea
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51
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China Expected to Ignore Philippine Protest over Upgrade of a Disputed Islet: Protests are especially unlikely now as the Philippines accepts Chinese medical aid to fight COVID-19, said Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Metro Manila-based advocacy group Institute for Political and Electoral Reform. ... The latest protest is seen as a record of opposition against China's move in case Beijing uses it to seek more legal authority in the Spratly Islands.
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