Update: The Impact of COVID-19 |
|
|
Dominium has been focused on our business and operations during this pandemic crisis. As we move past the critical rent collection part of each month, we will focus our updates on information that we have found useful in the work we are doing. We hope that our friends and partners in affordable housing find it helpful as well and will send other information our way as well. A collection of all previous updates can be found at COVID-19 Impact Update.
|
|
Rent Collections: Rental Assistance = Perverse Incentive? |
|
|
We continue to see a decline in rental receipts, which anecdotally is attributed to the forward payments of rental assistance. In short, some renters who have been paying rent are now forgoing payment to qualify for rental assistance.
Through July 19th, 2021 we have collected 85.7% of charges for the month. Resident receipts are:
- Down (0.3%) compared to June 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (2%) compared to May 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (2%) compared to April 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (4%) compared to August 2019 through the 19th
|
|
|
Subsidy: Cumulative subsidy receipts for the month are 95% collected, which is:
- Flat compared to June 2021 through the 19th.
- Up 1% compared to May 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (3%) compared to April 2021 through the 19th.
- Up 18% compared to August 2019 through the 19th.
Total Receipts: Cumulative receipts for the month are 88% collected, which is:
- Flat compared to June 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (1%) compared to May 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (2%) compared to April 2021 through the 19th.
- Up 11% compared to August 2019 through the 19th.
Receipts at Senior properties are 95% collected, which is:
- Up 1% compared to June 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (1%) compared to May 2021 through the 19th.
- Flat compared to April 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (1%) compared to August 2019 through the 19th.
Receipts at Family properties are 84% collected, which is:
- Down (1%) compared to June 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (2%) compared to May 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (3%) compared to April 2021 through the 19th.
- Down (5%) compared to August 2019 through the 19th.
|
|
|
The chart below shows the distribution of properties on their collection performance in July 2021 through the 19th. Out of the 203 properties, 16 have collected less than 65% of July 2021 charges representing $0.3M remaining to collect while 50 properties have collected over 92% representing $0.3M remaining to collect.
|
|
The lowest collection category is primarily made up of Section 8 properties which are impacted by timing with changes between resident and subsidy owed charges. The below distribution excludes these properties and follows the expected trends. |
|
|
Previous Dominium Rent Reports can be found here.
|
|
|
The Delta variant is now estimated to be the cause of 51% of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S., according to estimates released by the CDC. This variant was first identified in India in December of 2020 and has quickly spread across the globe. According to CDC estimates, the Delta strain accounts for 80% of the new infections in some Midwestern states, 73.4% in Western states, and 58.8% in Southern states. Despite its spread, the three US approved vaccines appear to be highly effective at protecting against serious disease, hospitalization, and death. (NPR)
The July 8th episode of the Osterholm Update: COVID-19 discusses the Delta variant in the US, booster doses of the vaccine, and what the future may look like with COVID globally.
|
IHME has changed their daily infections and testing to project the trajectory of infections based on easing mandates and closures and universal mask wearing.
|
|
Housing & Employment News |
As the economy reopens, the process of matching laid-off workers to jobs is proving to be slow and complicated, a contrast to the swift and decisive layoffs that followed the initial stage of the pandemic in early 2020. With more than nine million Americans saying in May that they wanted jobs and could not find them, and companies reporting that they had over nine million unfilled jobs, a major disconnect is arising in the labor market. This disconnect can be attributed to many factors including desire for remote work, a migration to rural areas during the pandemic, skills mismatch, and extended unemployment benefits. (WSJ)
|
Blackstone buys affordable housing portfolio stake for $5.1B. Blackstone stuck a deal with AIG’s life retirement business acquiring 9.9% equity stake for $2.2 billion. Then they struck another deal that was announced at the same time in which Blackstone is acquiring AIG’s interest in a US affordable housing portfolio for $5.1 billion. (GlobeSt.com)
|
|
Yields on U.S. Treasury securities extend their sharp decline and reached new multimonth lows last week, pointing to investors’ speculation about the economic outlook and new concerns about the highly contagious Delta variant. Early in the year, investors and analysts were optimistic about forecasts for economic growth and inflation, but now seem to be scaling back those hopes. Treasury yields are a closely watched economic indicator, with longer-term yields tending to rise with a positive economic growth outlook and vice versa. (WSJ)
The Consumer Price Index spiked, climbing 5.4% in the year through June. The CPI had the largest year-over-year gain since 2008. Rapidly increasing inflation can squeeze consumers if wages fail to increase at a similar rate and force the Fed to scale back its monetary support of the economy sooner than previously stated. Although, policymakers still expect inflation to recede to more normal levels as supply picks up and consumer spending returns to normal. (NY Times)
|
|
US unemployment claims fell to a pandemic low last week. US Labor Department data showed that initial claims decreased to 360,000 in the week ending on July 10th, down 26,000 from the previous week. Although the drop is in line with the broader recovery, claims are still above pre-pandemic levels. Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, said “Job gains should be strong in the coming months as public-health conditions continue to improve and as some of the other pandemic-related factors currently weighing them down diminish.” (Bloomberg)
|
|
Other Interesting & Helpful Resources |
|
|
|
State-by-State Actions
Schools:
Stay at Home/Shelter in Place:
Construction Limits:
|
|
The Washington Post says, “the office is back,” but they note that it may never be the same as before the pandemic. Companies across the country are reopening their offices to employees. Those who have returned to the office describe environments vastly different from those who left prior to the pandemic. Workers were accustomed to working from home, and companies are finding it hard to re-energize them for the return to the office. San Francisco and New York still have the lowest occupancy with only 19 and 21 percent, respectively. Whereas Dallas, Houston, and Austin have around 49% of their employees back in the office. (Washington Post)
Cruises are back but are far from normal as chronicled by several interviews with cruise critics. Vaccine status requirements are in place for many ships, but those not requiring vaccines are asking for vaccine status. For US trips, ships with at least 95% vaccinated passengers and crew, many rules are relaxed. If fewer than 95% of the passengers and crew are vaccinated, there may be vaccinated-only areas on the ship that do not require masks. For now, ships are at reduced capacity. Rules may vary by port and vaccination status. Each cruise line currently has its own set of rules, so flexibility is encouraged for those booking a cruise in the near future. (Washington Post)
|
|
Fannie Mae put together a “Here to Help Renters” resource guide. It includes tips for talking to your landlord, top things to know, and options for those in need of financial assistance. Other resources are linked to HUD, CARES Act, and state and local resources.
Freddie Mac offers a Renter Helpline, which provides counseling for renters on budgeting, credit improvement and debt management. The attached flyer is available in multiple languages.
HUD has put together a guide and FAQ for Renters during the Pandemic.
|
|
Family Housing Fund has put together resources for households impacted by COVID-19, ranging from legal help, utilities, food, unemployment insurance and more.
Housing Link has provided tips for emergency assistance in the Twin Cities with contact information by county.
|
|
In an attempt to share what we know and are doing during this crisis, we are publishing a set of periodic updates for our partners and friends in affordable housing. We likely will do this twice a month or as interesting events dictate. Please let us know if you would like to be removed from this list.
Thank you,
Paul Sween & Mark Moorhouse
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
