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A Summary of Drought Conditions:
from the October 8, 2019
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The ACF Basin contains D0, D1, D2, and D3 according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor
(as of 10/1/2019).
Our next briefing will be Tuesday, October 29, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
Current Drought Status
Approximately 6.48% of the ACF Basin is in D3 (Extreme Drought), 14.91% is in D2 (Severe Drought), 26.22% is in D1 (Moderate Drought), and the remaining 52.39% of the ACF is in D0 (Abnormally Dry) according to the most current
U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 10/1/2019).
100% of the ACF Basin is under D0-D4 conditions.
The areas of most severe drought are in the upper ACF Basin near the greater Atlanta metro area and the lower ACF Basin near the Alabama/Florida state line.
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Although maximum daily temperatures across the ACF Basin and surrounding area have dropped 5-10 degrees F on average from last week's, temperatures are still up to 10 degrees F above average for this time of year.
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The majority of the ACF Basin has received less than 10 inches of rain since July 1.
Rainfall deficits are growing over the entire basin at all time scales out to 90 days.
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NOAA 3-Month Outlook - Temperature
According to the most recent NOAA 3-Month Temperature Probability Outlook, the CPC Seasonal Forecast (Oct. - Dec.) predicts a good chance in the ACF Basin for above-normal temperatures through December.
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Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently in the below normal range in the upper basin and dryer in the lower basin.
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Flint River Near Carsonville
28-Day Average Streamflows
28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the normal to below normal range.
28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are now ranked as much below normal, with a new extreme for Flint River near Carsonville.
28-day average streamflow for the Apalachicola River also continues to decrease and is currently in the below normal range.
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Real-Time Groundwater Conditions
Previous Brief Current Brief
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One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) predicts below normal flows throughout the ACF Basin.
The 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the SERFC predicts below normal flows throughout the ACF Basin.
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Real-Time Groundwater Conditons
(as of 10/7/2019)
Inflows into all USACE ACF Basin projects have fallen. Lanier, West Point, and W.F. George are below the guide curve, but are continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.
The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
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Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
ACF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks
- Cool Front to the Northwest and tropical moisture over Peninsular Florida brought some rain chances to the area yesterday.
- Drought continues to deteriorate, ranging from Abnormally dry (D0) to extreme (D3) in pockets of the upper and lower ACF
- Agricultural impacts greatest on range/pasture, peanut harvest problematic
- Rainfall deficits growing over the entire basin and at all time scales out to 90 days
- Near and mid-range forecasts calls for more moderate temperatures, continued dryness
- Neutral conditions in the Pacific, forecast to continue through winter
- CPC seasonal forecast (Oct - Dec) favors higher chances for warm temperature across the US, equal chances for rainfall
- Drought likely to intensify quickly
State of Alabama Input
- Rainfall was virtually non-existent throughout September
- Temperatures have hit records for highs and duration
- Statewide reservoir inflows falling but levels still within rule curve elevations
- Groundwater levels are declining in several drought regions
- Agricultural impacts are increasing in severity.
- Six Alabama counties designated as primary disaster areas (Barbour, Chilton, Dale, Geneva, Henry, and Shelby)
- Covington, Coffee, Coosa, Elmore, Tallapoosa, Jackson, Clay, Randolph (Based on 10/1/19 map)
- No reported restrictions issued by public water systems
Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts
- Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the normal range in the upper basin, dryer in lower basin.
- Hydrologic drought conditions have increased across Georgia and Alabama with some areas classified as extreme hydrologic drought.
- 28-day average streamflow in the Chattahoochee River are currently in the normal to below normal range.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are now ranked as much below normal, with a new extreme for Flint River near Casonville.
- Real-time groundwater levels range from normal to low across the ACF Basin.
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
- Inflows into the projects have fallen.
- Lanier, West Point and WF George are below guide curve.
- Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.
- The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
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Acknowledgments
Speakers
David Zierden, FSU
Tony Gotvald, USGS
Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC
Cynthia Donald, USACE-Mobile District
Summary prepared by Rachel McGuire, Auburn University
Resources
General Drought Information:
Drought Impact Reporter:
Southeast Climate Perspectives Map
General Climate and El NiƱo Information:
Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting
Groundwater Monitoring
The Complete Set of Briefing Slides From the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:
Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center:
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To join or for webinar-related questions, please contact:
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