Quotes of the Day:
“Everything in life can be taken away from you and generally will be at some point. Your wealth vanishes, the latest gadgetry suddenly becomes passé, your allies desert you. But if your mind is armed with the art of war, there is no power that can take that away. In the middle of a crisis, your mind will find its way to the right solution. Having superior strategies at your fingertips will give your maneuvers irresistible force. As Sun-tzu says, “Being unconquerable lies with yourself.”
- Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies Of War
"The way a team plays as a whole determines its success. You may have the greatest bunch of individual stars in the world, but if they don't play together, the club won't be worth a dime."
- Babe Ruth
"If we are to have heroes, statesmen, and philosophers, we should have learned women."
- Abigail Adams
1. Espionage allegation escalates to threaten Moon, liberal ruling party
2. Are North Korean Soldiers Dying of Coronavirus?
3. South Korea's Moon dismisses link with activists charged with spying for North
4. North Korea conducting tests at reactor site: UN report
5. Report: Anti-weapons activists in South dealt with North Korea for years
6. N.K. paper lauds Kim for holding timely party meetings to tackle challenges
7. S. Korea, U.S. discuss food and vaccine assistance to N. Korea
8. Will China Save North Korea From Famine and Collapse?
9. China highlights North Korean food crisis with call to lift UN sanctions
1. Espionage allegation escalates to threaten Moon, liberal ruling party
I am not going to delve into South Korean politics and the issues surrounding this. This could result in a huge political crisis in the South (which of course is exactly what northKorea intends as part of its strategy).
But I think it is important to remind ourselves of the north Korea strategy and capabilities for espionage and subversion in the South.
nK strategy: subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia-like crime family cult known as Kim family regime.
nK capabilities:
North Korean intelligence and security services collect political, military, economic, and technical information through open sources, human intelligence, cyber intrusions, and signals intelligence capabilities. North Korea's primary intelligence collection targets remain the ROK, the United States, and Japan. They likely operate anywhere North Korea has a diplomatic or sizable economic overseas presence.
The Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB) is North Korea's primary foreign intelligence service, responsible for collection and clandestine operations. The RGB comprises six bureaus with compartmented functions, including operations, reconnaissance, technology and cyber capabilities, overseas intelligence, inter-Korean talks, and service support.
The Ministry of State Security (MSS) is North Korea's primary counterintelligence service and is an autonomous agency of the North Korean Government reporting directly to Kim Jong Un. The MSS is responsible for operating North Korean prison camps, investigating cases of domestic espionage, repatriating defectors, and conducting overseas counterespionage activities in North Korea's foreign missions.
The United Front Department (UFD) overtly attempts to establish pro-North Korean groups in the ROK, such as the Korean Asia-Pacific Committee and the Ethnic Reconciliation Council. The UFD is also the primary department involved in managing inter-Korean dialogue and North Korea's policy toward the ROK.
The 225th Bureau is responsible for training agents to infiltrate the ROK and establish underground political parties focused on fomenting unrest and revolution.
Source: https://media.defense.gov/2018/May/22/2001920587/-1/-1/1/REPORT-TO-CONGRESS-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-DEMOCRATIC-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-KOREA-2017.PDF
Espionage allegation escalates to threaten Moon, liberal ruling party
Activists who have been staging protests against South Korea's deployment of F-35A stealth fighters enter a district court in Cheongju, North Chungcheong Province, Monday, to face allegations that they received orders from North Korea. Yonhap By Nam Hyun-woo
The Moon Jae-in administration and the liberal ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) are facing a new political threat, after a group of activists accused of espionage was found to have contacted Moon and the party before he was elected as the president.
The conservative opposition bloc is already labelling this incident an "espionage scandal," demanding an explanation from the Moon government and suggesting that the issue could cause a stir in the upcoming presidential election slated for March of next year.
On Monday, the Cheongju District Court issued arrest warrants for three out of four activists based in the city, on charges of violating the National Security Act.
The activists were turned into the prosecution while protesting against South Korea's deployment of F-35A stealth fighters. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) and prosecutors allege that they have been organizing the protests after receiving orders from North Korean spies in China and Cambodia.
Korean conservative dailies, the Chosun Ilbo and Dong-A Ilbo, reported that the NIS and prosecutors had secured a USB memory device containing documents on the anti-F-35A protests, which the activists had shared with operatives from a cultural exchange bureau of Pyongyang's Workers' Party of Korea, which is known to be in charge of espionage operations in South Korea. The memory device also contained their loyalty oath to North Korea's first leader, Kim Il-sung, the papers reported.
An F-35A stealth fighter / Courtesy of Lockheed Martin The political influence of this allegation has been snowballing after it came to light that the four activists worked for President Moon's election camp in 2017 as labor issue advisors, and were in regular contact with a number of heavyweight lawmakers of the ruling DPK.
It was also revealed that one of the four activists, who avoided arrest, held a fundraising campaign to run newspapers ads calling for the impeachment of then-prosecutor general Yoon Seok-youl, who is now a presidential contender for the conservative main opposition People Power Party (PPP).
The PPP is now exerting pressure on the Moon administration and the DPK.
"The public couldn't have imagined that there were espionage activities in 21st-century South Korea, and that spies have reached out to political circles," PPP floor leader Kim Gi-hyeon said, demanding an explanation from the presidential office concerning the allegation. "This shows how national security has weakened under the Moon administration."
Yoon said, "This is a very serious case in which organized espionage activities are still happening in Korea," and, "With this many people having been detained, the case seems to have clear evidence, and is thus indisputable."
Former lawmaker Jang Sung-min, who is running in the PPP primary, wrote on his Facebook page that, "This is Moon Jae-in's spy advisor-gate," slamming the current administration.
Regarding the conservative opposition bloc's comments, a Cheong Wa Dae official said Friday, "It is a claim not worth mentioning," and did not explain further, in an apparent bid to prevent the incident from becoming a major controversy ahead of the presidential election next year.
"It is possible to say that this espionage allegation could rattle the looming presidential election," said Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University.
"Currently, the PPP is criticizing the ruling party for some of its members attempting to postpone the R.O.K.-U.S. joint military exercises, after North Korean leader Kim's sister, Kim Yo-jong, demanded that Seoul do so. It would be an influential tactic for the PPP to link this criticism with the espionage allegation, and use both to try to unite conservative voters," Shin said. "It depends on how the PPP will capitalize on this issue, and there is no doubt that it is a serious issue."
He added that the ruling party and Cheong Wa Dae will want to prevent this issue from expanding further, with the rationale that one side's election camp is always crowded with various types of people, thus, there is always a fair chance that any allegation could become a matter of heated dispute.
2. Are North Korean Soldiers Dying of Coronavirus?
A good question. We just cannot confirm by open source. But if they are then we need to be prepared for a crisis in the north and and had better be prepared to execute a range of contingency plans.
Are North Korean Soldiers Dying of Coronavirus?
According to a Daily NK report, two North Korean soldiers recently passed away after suffering from what appeared to have been COVID-19 symptoms. Per the report, the soldiers were placed in a medical isolation ward where they failed to receive any medical treatments beyond temperature checks while the military’s attention was largely focused on a major military workshop that took place in Pyongyang.
The DPRK continues to claim that it has not discovered a single positive case of the COVID-19 virus within its borders, and North Korea remains in a state of isolation from the rest of the world amid its ongoing border closures.
COVID-19 Claims two North Korean Soldiers
Daily NK reported recently that two North Korean soldiers passed away after suffering from symptoms consistent with the COIVD-19 virus. The soldiers – part of the Korean People’s Army Ground Force’s (KPAGF) Eight Corps – were placed into a medical isolation area after displaying symptoms. Once there the two soldiers were reportedly neglected, receiving little in the way of medical treatment or attention even as they became increasingly unwell.
The two soldiers’ isolation coincided with the holding of a major military workshop in the capital city of Pyongyang. Held from July 24-27, the workshop featured an “intensive training course” for commanders and political officers of the Korean People’s Army and was described by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as having provided “a new landmark in modernizing” the North Korean military. The workshop coincided with other military events in Pyongyang and elsewhere across the country celebrating the 68th anniversary of the signing of the armistice agreement that brought an end to the fighting during the Korean War.
The entire military was reportedly placed on special guard duty for the duration of the workshop, and with the military’s attention focused primarily on the conference, the two soldiers in isolation received little attention.
The death of the two soldiers is not the first report suggesting that COVID-19 is negatively impacting the North Korean military. As the KPA geared up for its annual winter training period, which typically runs from December through March, it was reported that some units were struggling to muster a full roster of personnel to take part in the training. Elements of the KPAGF’s First Corps appear to have been struck particularly hard by complications related to the COVID-19 virus. According to reports, the unit was able to field only about half of its usual force for the training, with “malnutrition, desertions, and quarantines related to COVID-19” having taken their toll on the First Corps.
COVID-19 in North Korea
North Korea continues to maintain that it has not detected a positive case of COVID-19 within its borders. The DPRK, which self-reports COVID-19 related information to the World Health Organization, reported in its most recent update that the country had now performed a total of 34,580 COVID-19 tests on suspected cases without identifying a single positive case.
North Korea has maintained a strict border closure since January of 2020 following the emergence of the COVID-19 virus in neighboring China. This has dramatically impacted the country’s economy, with foreign trade plummeting to record low levels. The DPRK may, however, be preparing to resume some level of foreign trade with its largest trading partner in China as it begins to make use of a large new disinfection complex near the DPRK-China border.
North Korea had previously been scheduled to receive roughly 1.7 million doses of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine as part of an international vaccine sharing program. The delivery of the vaccines to North Korea has been placed on hold indefinitely, however, with the program citing both a “lack of technical preparedness” in North Korea as well as a global vaccine shortage as reasons for the delay. The World Health Organization has more recently reported that it has been working with North Korea on preparing its supply chains for the storage and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. North Korea does have previous experience with vaccination programs – including those requiring cold storage and distribution, which is a requirement of COVID-19 vaccines – and has worked with international organizations on vaccination campaigns and supply chains in the past.
3. South Korea's Moon dismisses link with activists charged with spying for North
This is potentially going to cause a political crisis in the South.
I wrote a controversial assessment of the Moon administration's national security team here a year ago HERE ("New South Korean National Security Team Has Close Ties to Pyongyang")
South Korea's Moon dismisses link with activists charged with spying for North
A woman looks toward the north at an observatory platform near the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas in Paju, South Korea, March 24, 2021. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo
SEOUL, Aug 6 (Reuters) - South Korea's presidential office on Friday dismissed opposition lawmakers' calls for explanations on a relationship between President Moon Jae-in and three activists who were arrested on charges of coordinating with North Korean agents.
The South Korean activists were arrested on Monday on charges of violating the National Security Act by campaigning, under an order from a North Korean operative, against the South Korean military's plans to buy U.S. stealth fighters, according to police.
Under usual procedure in South Korea, authorities have not identified the activists nor has the identity of their lawyers been disclosed.
Police and the National Intelligence Service (NIS) have also accused the three of receiving some $20,000 from the operative. Police said the activists had met the operative in the Chinese city of Shenyang near the North Korean border numerous times since 2017.
Their mission included "underground organisations" to carry out pro-North Korean, anti-U.S. movements, a police official said, declining to elaborate citing the investigation.
The Korean peninsula has been divided for decades and spy scares and scandals between the Cold War rivals have been common over the years.
The latest case sparked political uproar when the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, citing unidentified sources, said the activists had worked on Moon's presidential campaign as special advisers on labour issues before he took office in 2017.
The Chosun Ilbo and other media outlets also said the activists had met a senior lawmaker of Moon's ruling Democratic Party to discuss possible projects with North Korea.
Police, the NIS and the Cheongju District Court, which issued an arrest warrant for the activists, could not be reached for comment on the Chosun Ilbo report.
The main opposition People Power Party described the case an "espionage scandal" and demanded that Moon and the Democratic Party clarify their relations with the activists.
A spokesperson at Moon's office dismissed the assertion that the activists had worked for Moon, saying in a statement it was "not worth mentioning."
A spokeswoman at the Democratic Party said it had no comment.
The liberal Moon has been keen to improve relations with North Korea, saying both sides would benefit economically, despite its nuclear weapons and missile programmes.
In the first sign of easing of tension for months, the two Koreas last week restored hotlines which North Korea cut a year ago as ties came under stress. read more
Reporting by Hyonhee Shin Editing by Robert Birsel
4. North Korea conducting tests at reactor site: UN report
There should be no doubt that Kim Jong-un prioritizes nuclear development over the welfare of the Korean people living in the north.
The search is on among Korea watchers to get a copy of the UN panel of experts draft report.
North Korea conducting tests at reactor site: UN report
Despite economic woes, reclusive state pushing ahead with weapons programs
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, left, and an aerial view of a light water nuclear reactor and a 5 MW nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. (Source photos by Reuters and 2020 Maxar Technologies/Getty Images)
KAORI YOSHIDA and HIONA SHIRAIWA, Nikkei staff writersAugust 6, 2021 13:05 JST | North Korea
NEW YORK -- North Korea has conducted tests at the Yongbyon nuclear complex recently, according to a draft U.N. report obtained by Nikkei.
The tests occurred between December 2020 and February this year, according to a draft report from an expert panel for the U.N. sanctions committee on North Korea, which operates under the U.N. Security Council.
The report paints a picture of Pyongyang continuing to develop its nuclear and ballistic missile programs despite its economy worsening due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The report also sheds light on rampant smuggling in North Korea despite the U.N. economic embargo, as the country's elite grabs luxury goods for itself.
The draft report was submitted to the committee on Thursday. Nikkei obtained the report before its scheduled release in September. The final report will be released following discussion and amendment by the Security Council. The findings could be used as grounds for new sanctions against individuals or organizations found in breach of Security Council resolutions.
According to the draft report, activity was detected inside the Yongbyon complex via infrared and other imagery between December 2020 and February 2021, which the report says suggests that "some tests had occurred."
The report notes that "the external construction of a light water reactor seems to be complete," and that "installation of machinery is likely to be in progress." It adds, however, that the 5 MW reactor -- the facility's oldest -- showed no signs of operating since 2018.
North Korea continues to export coal in defiance of Security Council resolutions. Between February and May this year, at least 364,000 tons of coal were sent on North Korean vessels to the Ningbo-Zhoushan area, near Shanghai, in at least 41 shipments, the report says. Ship-to-ship oil smuggling continues to occur at sea.
North Korean imports of oil are capped at 500,000 barrels per year under a Security Council resolution, and the country had used only 4.75% of the quota as of mid-July, according to official data, but the draft report says that increasing illicit imports mean the country is "still likely to exceed the cap in 2021." The closure of North Korea's borders due to the pandemic has stopped most imports of consumer goods, but luxury items are still getting through.
North Korea smuggles in car tires and parts, construction and interior design materials and supplies for the family villa of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the draft report says.
The panel found that Chinese companies were involved in the smuggling of luxury vehicles worth $1 million, including Lexus LX570 SUVs.
North Korea also remains active in online thefts of funds and technology. The country "continues to conduct spear-phishing campaigns against the cryptocurrency industry," says the draft report, without specifying the amount taken by North Korea.
A panel report published in March found that North Korea had stolen $316.4 million through hacking of cryptocurrency operators in 2019 and 2020.
5. Report: Anti-weapons activists in South dealt with North Korea for years
north Korea spy tradecraft:
Kukmin Ilbo reported Friday that one of the defendants had a flash drive that contained more than 80 messages from North Korea that were encrypted using steganography, a technique of hiding confidential information within a regular text file.
....
The flash drive was elaborately hidden in other material. The evidence was wrapped in aluminum foil, which had been sealed inside a plastic bag, an envelope, a paper bag, then stuffed inside a blanket at the suspect's residence, according to Kukmin Ilbo.
Documents on the flash drive included a report on the activities of a minor South Korean political party, and a list of potential new South Korean recruits to the North Korean operation. About 60 South Korean individuals were being targeted for recruitment, the report said.
Defendants continued to deny wrongdoing, said the charges were "inflated" and that they have been framed as criminals.
South Korean authorities have said the defendants held demonstrations and condemned the acquisition of U.S. F-35 fighter jets in public spaces, according to KBS.
Report: Anti-weapons activists in South dealt with North Korea for years
By Elizabeth Shim
Aug. 6 (UPI) -- The South Korean defendants charged with following orders from the North Korean government to prevent Seoul's acquisition of U.S. weapons were found to have received dozens of directives from Pyongyang, according to a South Korean press report.
South Korean investigators identified four suspects in connection to the case. Earlier this week, local reports said three out of the four suspects were placed in police custody. The fourth suspect was deemed a low-flight risk.
Kukmin Ilbo reported Friday that one of the defendants had a flash drive that contained more than 80 messages from North Korea that were encrypted using steganography, a technique of hiding confidential information within a regular text file.
The defendant had received the directives from Pyongyang's Cultural Exchange Bureau over the past four years. The flash drive was uncovered during a house search by authorities May 27, the report said.
North Korea's Cultural Exchange Bureau operates under the ruling Workers' Party. According to South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo, the aim of the North Korean agency is to send spies to infiltrate the South, build an underground party and plan for an armed uprising in the event of an emergency.
The flash drive was elaborately hidden in other material. The evidence was wrapped in aluminum foil, which had been sealed inside a plastic bag, an envelope, a paper bag, then stuffed inside a blanket at the suspect's residence, according to Kukmin Ilbo.
Documents on the flash drive included a report on the activities of a minor South Korean political party, and a list of potential new South Korean recruits to the North Korean operation. About 60 South Korean individuals were being targeted for recruitment, the report said.
Defendants continued to deny wrongdoing, said the charges were "inflated" and that they have been framed as criminals.
South Korean authorities have said the defendants held demonstrations and condemned the acquisition of U.S. F-35 fighter jets in public spaces, according to KBS.
6. N.K. paper lauds Kim for holding timely party meetings to tackle challenges
Kim has continually supposedly accepted responsibility for economic failure. Yet a careful reading of the propaganda shows he is blaming it on sanctions, COVID and natural disasters -but most of all on hostile expertanl forces (e.g. the US). He has never accepted responsibility for his poor decision making and for prioritizing nuclear and missile development over the welfare of he Korean people in the north.
N.K. paper lauds Kim for holding timely party meetings to tackle challenges | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Aug. 6 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's official newspaper on Friday praised leader Kim Jong-un for convening meetings of the ruling Workers' Party at appropriate times in an effort to overcome challenges, such as the pandemic and typhoons.
The Rodong Sinmun, the organ of the country's ruling Workers' Party, stressed that Kim has analyzed the North's challenges in-depth and presented the right strategies and policy direction at each party meeting he presided over.
"Our respected general secretary leads the struggle for socialist construction by presiding over key party meetings at the most appropriate times and elevating the party's leadership based on his scientific insights on the subjective and objective conditions laid forth in our revolution," it said.
When the country suffered hardship from the pandemic and back-to-back typhoons last year, Kim held party meetings to toughen anti-coronavirus steps and come up with disaster recovery measures for typhoon-hit regions, the paper said.
It also praised Kim for unveiling the decisions made at the party meetings to his people and lauded his confidence in regime control.
Kim has stressed the role of the ruling party since he took power in 2012, compared to the military-first policy pursued by his late father Kim Jong-il.
While no congress of the ruling Workers' Party was held under his late father, Kim has presided over two congress meetings, including the eighth congress in January.
During the party meeting, North Korea said it revised its party rules to hold the congress every five years. The North is known to have dropped the word "songun," or military-first policy, from the preamble of the revised party rules.
Kim also admitted to a failure in his previous economic development plan and disclosed a new five-year development scheme focusing on self-reliance at the congress meeting.
Pyongyang has held nine party meetings this year amid efforts to ward off the coronavirus.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
7. S. Korea, U.S. discuss food and vaccine assistance to N. Korea
The only way we're going to get humanitarian aid in north Korea is if Kim Jong Un accepts it and allows it. That is really the controlling factor. I think the top diplomats in S Korea and the US are really concerned with the ongoing situation inside N Korea and how badly the Korean people in the North are suffering. There is a real desire to help the people of N Korea. However, humanitarian aid can only be given to North Korea only when Kim Jong-un accepts it and grants it permission. What is really tragic is Kim Jong-un is using the suffering of the people to get sanctions relief, not humanitarian aid. I do think that we would provide direct aid if it is transparent, if it will be provided with normal international standards, and if it can be certified that it goes where it is needed and is not diverted. I think the ROK and US would provide direct aid, I think we would be more likely to provide aid indirectly through the World Food Program, the World Health Organization, COVAX.”
But If it can be certified that it is transparently delivered to the people in need, and if it is not diverted, the United States is likely to provide humanitarian aid directly to North Korea. But for that to happen Kim Jong-un has to act as a responsible member of the international community.
S. Korea, U.S. discuss food and vaccine assistance to N. Korea
Posted August. 07, 2021 07:19,
Updated August. 07, 2021 07:19
S. Korea, U.S. discuss food and vaccine assistance to N. Korea. August. 07, 2021 07:19. by Jin-Woo Shin niceshin@donga.com.
South Korea and the United States held a directorial meeting to discuss assistance initiatives to provide food and vaccines to North Korea. The U.S. government still showed a negative response to the lessening of sanctions on Pyongyang.
In a foreign affairs meeting between South Korean and U.S. directors held in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday (local time), the two nations put humanitarian aid to North Korea on the agenda to exchange opinions on food and vaccination, according to a source at the South Korean government. Reportedly, Washington welcomed the restoration of inter-Korean communication channels and promised to have a review of food and vaccination aid requested by Seoul, expressing positive reaction. They agreed to specify what is to be provided to Pyongyang such as medicines and medical equipment.
The South Korean government plans to open up the door to inter-Korean cooperation as a follow-up to the restored communication channels based on humanitarian assistance to Pyongyang. “We consider that Washington finds it easier to reach agreement on humanitarian aid to Pyongyang than on any other issue,” said a South Korean high-ranking official.
Washington said in the meeting that it is considering getting communication channels back to normal to facilitate dialogue with Pyongyang. However, it reportedly thinks that it is too early to consider any full-scale incentives as for the easing of North Korea sanctions.
8. Will China Save North Korea From Famine and Collapse?
It will do its best to do so. More than anything else Chia wants no war and no instability and regime collapse on the Korean peninsula.
That said, China will only do enough to maintain the status quo. It is not going to provide enough resources to help Kim Jong-un gain strength. However, I do not think we can count on China to prevent nK provocations. Kim Jong-un will conduct a provocation when he deems it necessary to support achieving his objectives. He is not afraid to thumb her nose at the Chinese when he needs to.
Also, we tested Kim Jong0un from 2018 through 2020. We cancelled, postponed, and scaled back training in an attempt to support diplomacy. Despite all that, Kim did not respond positively at the negotiating table. We tested him and he was found wanting.
Excerpt:
When it comes to North Korea, nothing is certain or foreordained. However, with the DPRK in economic distress and fearful of cultural infiltration, its ties with China are only likely to increase. The upside is that Beijing will continue to use its increased influence to discourage potentially destabilizing provocations. But increasingly the Trump administration looks like a brief interlude, during which Kim tested the American option and found it wanting. The United States might find itself waiting a long time for another chance to transform relations in Northeast Asia.
Will China Save North Korea From Famine and Collapse?
Kim working to preserve his country’s stability and the regime’s survival amid another “arduous march,” meaning a potential famine, increased aid from and trade with China is his best place to start.
It took more than six years for Chinese president Xi Jinping to meet North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-un after the latter succeeded his father. During the same period, Xi met with South Korean president Park Geun-hye a half dozen times, even giving her a spot of honor during the 2015 parade celebrating the conclusion of World War II.
Although officials on both sides of the Yalu routinely said the bilateral relationship was as close as lips and teeth, private conversations revealed substantially less warmth. A Chinese academic told me he wished that the United States would adopt the “Israeli solution,” meaning bomb the North’s nuclear facilities. A North Korean official told me that Pyongyang’s objective was not to be dependent on any single country, leaving little doubt about which “single country” he meant.
Indeed, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) had always guarded its independence, especially from its often-overbearing northern neighbors. Founder Kim Il-sung didn’t like the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, while China’s Mao Zedong detested Kim’s unique form of monarchical communism. Relations cratered during the latter part of the Obama administration when Beijing supported ever tighter UN sanctions on the North in response to its many nuclear and missile tests.
However, after President Donald Trump agreed to a summit with Kim, Xi warmed up to the latter. He recognized the danger of being cut out by a deal between Pyongyang and Washington. For the North, the latter was a meddlesome power, but was distant and, therefore, potentially less dangerous. However, Kim also desired better ties with China. Another four meetings occurred, the most recent two years ago.
Kim has continued to benefit from the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) favor, with Beijing widely believed to have relaxed sanctions enforcement and provided energy, fertilizer, and food aid to help the DPRK through its pandemic shutdown. Indeed, the commercial relationship between the two communist states appears to have revived in recent months.
In late May, the Financial Times reported: “At least 52 vessels that appear to be linked to Pyongyang were active in waters around North Korea and China in April and May, up from single digits observed for weeks at a time last year, according to date analyzed by NK Pro, a North Korea-focused information service.” Moreover, the data “also showed a rise in the number of North Korea-flagged tankers operating in the area, suggesting a resurgence in Chinese fuel transfers or sales to Pyongyang.” The conclusion of analysts: “Beijing was probably maintaining a years-long policy of supporting stability in Pyongyang through deliveries of food, fertilizer and fuel.”
And the DPRK appears to hope to increase commerce with the PRC. For instance, Pyongyang sent a trade specialist, Ri Ryong-nam, as its new ambassador to Beijing. When greeting Ri in May Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi observed: “China firmly supports the DPRK in developing its economy and improving people’s livelihood, and is willing to continue to provide the DPRK with assistance within its capacity.”
Late last month NKNews reported that the North had resumed construction of a disinfection facility near the Chinese border “in a move that may signal Pyongyang is preparing to resume large-scale trade with China.” Indeed, South Korean intelligence suggested that the delay in opening this facility was the “grave incident” which resulted in public criticism by Kim and punishment of several top officials in June. With Kim working to preserve his country’s stability and the regime’s survival amid another “arduous march,” meaning a potential famine, increased aid from and trade with China is his best place to start.
The Biden administration has talked about seeking Chinese help in convincing the North to denuclearize. Perhaps Kim took note, since last week he visited Pyongyang’s Friendship Tower to pay homage to the PRC. As the Voice of Korea explained, Kim “paid noble respects to the martyrs of the Chinese People’s Volunteers who dedicated their precious lives in the Fatherland Liberation War of the Korean people against the imperialist aggression.”
This is only the second time Kim has visited the monument. He said that bilateral relations “will be firmly carried forward on the road for the common cause generation after generation.” Shortly before that he sent a sympathy message to Xi Jinping on severe flooding in the PRC. This attention to neighborly relations is a dramatic shift from the days when North Korean officials openly derided their giant ally’s role.
Beijing reciprocated with a similar message. Last month Kim said that he hoped to raise bilateral relations to a “new strategic point.” Xi responded in a letter that he planned to “defend, consolidate and develop” the two nations’ ties. They planned to achieve “regional peace, stability, development and prosperity by successfully implementing the important common understanding reached by the two sides.”
The recent warming between North and South Korea, if it deserves to be called that, has sparked discussion of the possibility of better inter-Korean relations and perhaps even another summit between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. However, the flurry looks more like an attempt to get Moon, ever anxious for détente to envelop the peninsula, to drop planned military exercises with the United States, than a sincere effort to reduce tensions. Absent a willingness by Seoul to bust international sanctions, the Republic of Korea can deliver only a fraction of the benefits available from the PRC.
Presumably, for this reason, if no other, Kim has sold his soul, or at least freedom of action, to Beijing. Pyongyang is acting like a supplicant. Moreover, the DPRK has avoided provocations, including the long ago threatened “Christmas present” as well as tests of the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) unveiled last October. In this way, the North appears to be acting as the dutiful buffer state long desired by successive Chinese governments.
The PRC’s apparent embrace also may reflect Kim’s domestic crackdown on Western and especially South Korean cultural influences. He appears to have decided that the evident appeal of life beyond the Hermit Kingdom and its stifling atmosphere poses an existential threat to the survival of the system and his dynasty. For him to expand ties with South Korea and the United States almost guarantees an expansion of their influences in the DPRK. In contrast, Xi is similarly committed to eradicating the slightest hint that individuals have rights and lives beyond that of the state as detailed by the communist party and its glorious leader. In this area, at least, the two communist leaders think and act as one.
When it comes to North Korea, nothing is certain or foreordained. However, with the DPRK in economic distress and fearful of cultural infiltration, its ties with China are only likely to increase. The upside is that Beijing will continue to use its increased influence to discourage potentially destabilizing provocations. But increasingly the Trump administration looks like a brief interlude, during which Kim tested the American option and found it wanting. The United States might find itself waiting a long time for another chance to transform relations in Northeast Asia.
Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author of several books, including Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations with North and South Korea.
Image: Reuters.
9. China highlights North Korean food crisis with call to lift UN sanctions
China is complicit in north Korean political warfare. It is supporting Kim Jong-un's use of the suffering of theKorean people living in the north to try to drive sanctions relief.
We must not be duped. The Korean people are suffering not because of sanctions, or COVID or natural disasters but from KimJong-un's policy decision to prioritize his nuclear and missile programs over the welfare of the Korean people.
China highlights North Korean food crisis with call to lift UN sanctions
- Wang Yi also hits out at US in Asean forum, accusing it of stoking tensions
- Aid from Beijing and Seoul is not enough to solve Pyongyang’s problems, observer says
Published: 3:51pm, 7 Aug, 2021
In an address to an online Asean foreign ministers forum on Friday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the joint exercises would undermine efforts to resolve tensions on the Korean peninsula.
“If the US really wants to restore dialogue with North Korea, it should not take any actions that will intensify tensions,” the Chinese foreign ministry quoted him as saying.
“Given that North Korea has already stopped nuclear and long-range missile tests, its legitimate concerns should be addressed. An effective way to resolve the current deadlock is to lift sanctions imposed on North Korea by the United Nations Security Council.”
South Korea’s defence ministry said on Monday that Seoul and Washington were in talks over a joint military exercise, but no decision had been made.
Pyongyang warned Seoul that the drills would undermine efforts to rebuild their relations. Seoul and Washington regularly conduct joint drills, which Pyongyang has denounced as preparation for war.
The two Koreas have only just reconnected hotlines severed by Pyongyang a year ago, a move seen as an attempt by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in to repair damaged ties.
Chinese analysts said the North agreed to resume the hotline because it needed food aid from both the South and China as it battled the Covid-19 pandemic.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military commentator, said Wang’s call at the Asean meeting was meant to inform countries in the region about the food crisis in North Korea.
“The problem so far cannot be solved by economic aid from China and South Korea. It is not a sustainable approach,” Zhou said.
“The relationship between Pyongyang and Asean was quite good before the North started missile tests [in 2006].”
Without referring directly to the US, Wang also told the Asean meeting that the group should be the main cooperation mechanism for the region, and China opposed moves by “external nations” to set up a new military alliance.
“In recent years, some large countries outside the region have tried to implement new regional strategies to use military deterrence to engage in group confrontation. This tendency is very dangerous and should be stopped,” Wang said.
The US is staging military drills in the Asia-Pacific region with its allies, including Britain, Japan and Australia.
Wang also said there should not be any interference in other nation’s affairs.
“Southeast Asian nations have the common experience of being bullied by other strong powers. We don’t need a ‘master’ nor a ‘saviour’ for us nowadays. The destiny of all countries should be in their own hands, and the future of the region should be jointly developed by all countries,” he said.
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Wang urges end to UN sanctions on North Korea
