Publications 

The decision to hold the Tokyo Olympics as scheduled amid the COVID-19 crisis was a calculated political gamble for Prime Minister Suga to improve his political prospects.

The media and the opposition parties heavily criticized the decision by the Suga cabinet to go ahead with the Games in collaboration with the International Olympic Committee, which Japanese people felt did not seem to show any concern for their well-being. Mayuko Wakuda, one of NHK’s two main casters of the opening ceremony, presented doubt over the government’s decision to hold the Olympics by saying, “in addition to Japanese domestic voices, the voices of international media asking what this Olympics is for and who it is for, have been heard.”

Japanese citizens were also skeptical about going ahead with the Tokyo Olympics despite the fact the government seemed to be behind the curve in administering vaccine shots and preventing infections from spreading. After all, the Tokyo Olympics were held while Tokyo was under the declaration of a state of COVID-19 emergency. The Asahi Shimbun poll held on July 17 and 18 showed 55% of Japanese people were against holding the Olympics, while only 33% of Japanese people were for holding the Olympics. 68% of Japanese people thought a “safe and secure Olympics” was impossible, while only 21% of Japanese people thought a “safe and secure Olympics” was possible.

Prime Minister Suga’s calculus of holding the Tokyo Olympics despite widespread opposition among Japanese people to do so, was that he could begin regaining the confidence of the Japanese people and reverse the negative political mood by successfully holding the Tokyo Olympics without serious COVID-19 problems. In fact, canceling the Tokyo Olympics was not an option for Prime Minister Suga as it meant a total political failure of the government under his leadership to deal with the COVID-19 crisis. In other words, holding the Tokyo Olympics seemed to be the only option, which Prime Minister Suga realistically had after the disappointing results in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, to preserve and hopefully improve prospects of being reelected for a new full term as LDP president and continuing as prime minister.

The Tokyo Olympics were a success. The Games were held according to the plan without outbreaks of infections among the Olympians, coaches, officials, staff, and volunteers. In fact, most of the foreign participants seemed to have enjoyed their experiences and left with positive images of the Tokyo Olympics. The Suga administration could have advertised that Japan had provided a model for how to hold a large-scale international gathering while administering measures against a pandemic. Even Japanese people, who opposed the Tokyo Olympics, enjoyed the Games thanks to the Japanese Olympians, who were unfortunately underappreciated before the Olympics, but nevertheless valiantly fought to capture a total of 58 medals, including 27 gold medals.

As a matter of fact, views of Japanese people on the Olympics have quickly turned positive after the Games finished. According to FNN polls taken on August 21 and 22, 55.6% of Japanese agree “it was good that the Tokyo Olympics were held” as compared with 35.5% of Japanese who don’t agree “it was good that the Tokyo Olympics were held.”

A big disappointment for Prime Minister Suga has been that change of Japanese people’s views on the Tokyo Olympics has not altered their views on him. On the contrary, approval for his cabinet has continued to slide as the COVID-19 crisis worsens following the Tokyo Olympics. The latest polls for the Suga cabinet reveal a dangerous trend. Approval for the Suga cabinet declined 3.8 points to 25.8% from 29.6% in the previous month in an ANN poll taken on August 21 and 22. Approval for the Suga cabinet declined 6.9 points to 32.1% from 39.0% in the previous month in FNN polls taken on August 21 and 22. An average of eight major polls in August show 30.4% approval and 53.9% of disapproval.

In this month’s newsletter, I am delighted that Dr. Gerald Curtis, Burgess Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Columbia University, helps us make sense of the current Japanese political landscape in his Sasakawa USA’s Japan Political Pulse article, “Will Suga Survive,” which was published yesterday. Dr. Curtis goes beyond the short-term issue of whether Prime Minister Suga will be able to hang on as prime minister by pointing out problems arising from Japan’s lethargic political culture which is too slow to change to meet the challenges of a quickly changing world.

In terms of the U.S.-Japan relationship, both the U.S. and Japan have gained much from seven years and eight months of political stability under Prime Minister Abe. Despite whatever happens in the political landscape in the coming months, one thing Japan needs to avoid is domestic political instability and indifference to global engagement arising from a carousel of weak prime ministers.

On August 26, Sasakawa USA hosted a Policy Briefing featuring a keynote by LtGen. Koichi Isobe, JGSDF (Ret.), 37th Commander of the Eastern Army (2013-2015); and commentary provided by LtGen Chip Gregson, USMC (Ret.), Assistant Secretary of Defense, Asian and Pacific Security Affairs (2009-2011); and LtGen Larry Nicholson, USMC (Ret.), Commanding General of III Marine Expeditionary Force (2015-2018). In this on-the-record discussion, LtGen. Isobe explained what the U.S. Marine Corps Force Design 2030 means to Japan and its impact on the ever-important U.S.-Japan security alliance. He outlined three main points to understand the future of USMC-JSDF cooperation: (1) the growing threat of adversaries’ precision strike capabilities; (2) the future role of the Marine Corps, focusing on deterrence; and (3) the Marine Corps’ “back to basics” return to being the nation’s naval expeditionary force in readiness. LtGen Gregson and LtGen Nicholson followed with the American perspective commentary highlighting the need for increased collaboration, cooperation, and interoperability with Japan in this changing nature of modern warfare and the need to integrate space and cyber assets to best protect the First Island Chain. The video and recap of the event are available here.

On August 10, Sasakawa USA Washington Kenkyu Group welcomed Dr. Peter Skerry, Professor of Political Science at Boston College for a discussion on the Black Lives Matter movement. For this off-the-record, virtual event, Dr. Skerry examined the African-American history of the United States and explained the details of how the Black Lives Matter movement was founded and is now structured. Drawing on key points featured in his article, published by National Affairs, ”Why ‘Black Lives Matter’ Matters,” he describes the nuances of the Black Lives Matter movement given its political setting of the 21st century and digital age. Following Dr. Skerry’s presentation, the event continued with a lively discussion with the attendees, including Japanese representatives of the media, think tanks, private sector, and government. Dr. Skerry’s remarks furthered the understanding of an important American societal matter that can strengthen how members of the Washington Kenkyu Group engage with their American colleagues in Washington, D.C.

Photo: Dr. Skerry

In this month’s Japan Political Pulse article, “Will Suga Survive,” guest author Dr. Gerald Curtis, Burgess Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Columbia University, examines the variety of factors affecting the increasingly uncertain electoral picture and political viability of Prime Minister Suga’s leadership this fall. On top of his administration’s dissatisfactory response to the COVID-19 pandemic and lack of effective communication with the public, Dr. Curtis also scrutinizes the Japanese government’s recent debacle in evacuating Japanese citizens and Afghani allies out of Afghanistan after the Taliban seized power. Dr. Curtis concludes that regardless of who becomes the next prime minister, numerous challenges still impede the advancement of Japan’s political culture and international standing globally. You can read the article here.

Photo source: Prime Minister Suga attending the G7 leaders’ video call to discuss the crisis in Afghanistan on August 24, 2021. (Official Website of the Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet)