Global Risks: World Economic Forum
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The global elite have descended on Switzerland for the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos this week. Although President Donald Trump, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, British Prime Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron are not in attendance, some 3000 other global leaders from the worlds of business, government, international aid, academia, arts and culture, and the media are already there.
The WEF was set up in 1971 in Geneva by social entrepreneur Klaus Schwab. Independent and not-for-profit, it aims to bring political and business leaders together so they can collaborate on global challenges and find solutions. The glitzy annual meeting runs from Tuesday to Friday of this week.
To prepare the attendees, the organization publishes their
Global Risks Report
just ahead of the conference
. The highly anticipated annual presentation puts the world’s most pressing issues into focus, giving a sense of what is top-of-mind for global decision-makers.
Below are the top five risks highlighted in this year’s report.
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The report looks at two specific ways of evaluating global risks:
- The likelihood of an event occurring
- The impact or severity of an event, should it occur
And as evidenced in the graphic below, over the past decade the composition of these top threats has evolved.
In 2009, the world was still reeling from the global financial crisis, so economic concerns were naturally at the forefront of discussions. Today, the most likely scenarios to play out in the near future involve extreme weather events and natural disasters. Also trending upward are cyber-security threats and concerns over the security of personal data.
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Last week brought another week of gains for domestic equities, with large cap stocks pulling out of correction territory (or within 10% of their recent highs). Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continued its trend lower. Reports on trade negotiations with China seemed to drive sentiment as did the ongoing partial government shutdown.
R
esearchers at the University of Michigan announced that their gauge of consumer sentiment had declined to its lowest level in over two years, a reflection of instability in the markets and consumers' attitudes toward the shutdown.
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Consumer Sentiment
In what is the first major economic indication of trouble tied to the government shutdown, the consumer sentiment index plunged to a two year low of 90.7. This is the biggest monthly decline in six years and is not a favorable indication for consumer spending.
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Oil Production
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting that by December 2020, America will become a net exporter of crude and refined oil products.
Soaring US production, driven by the extraction of oil from shale, has transformed the country's prospects.
The US was briefly a net exporter last November, when exports outstripped imports for a solitary week. That may be repeated intermittently in the coming months, but by the end of next year, it is likely to become the norm.
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Young Blood
Would you hand over $8,000 for a shot at renewed youthful vigor?
Thanks to medical start up, Ambrosia, older f
olks are getting a new shot at eternal youth. It’s not meditation. It’s not the latest fad diet. It’s not fitness.
It’s blood.
Start-up founder and Stanford Medical graduate, Jesse Karmazin, recently told Business Insider that his company Ambrosia has completed its first clinical trial and is up and running in 5 US cities. Ambrosia charges anyone over 30(!) $8,000 for one liter of young plasma ($12,000 for two liters). According to their website, young plasma treatments are intravenous infusions of plasma from young donors, who are in the age range of 16 to 25.
Blood plasma is a yellowish fluid that carries cells and nutrients through the circulatory system. Young people tend to produce more plasma proteins than older people. So it’s hoped that by adding more to older recipients, their blood flow will be reinvigorated, inflammation will be reduced and brain function as well as general health will be improved.
Karmazin said the results of company's internal test were "really positive" though the company has yet to publish the results and members of the medical community are warning of potential
dangers
. But Ambrosia can go ahead with its controversial clinical service because blood transfusions have long been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration.
Oh, and there's already a waiting list.
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